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Presentation outline

  • Data model

    • Hidden layer -> why 2
    • Units - 32/16 -> next stage goal
    • Activation -> sigmoid -> classic + binary
    • Optimization -> gradient descent
    • Learning rate -> adaptive -> next stage
    • Flow diagram
  • Result = 84% accuracy + 82% validation accuracy

    • plot accuracy vs iteration

Improvements of V2:

Possible additional classification

  • Predict the percentage of rise/fall

Possible additional features:

  • NYSE/NASDAQ(or SP500)kind of reference on that day or days before
    • possibly, use the reference for a kind of stocks, like technology
  • The performance prior to the day (2~3 days)
  • Quadratic terms
  • Other stock performance - in the same category

20160722 v1

Feature Figure
Hidden layers 1
Hidden layer 1 units 10
Features 4
Classifications 1
Training set size 415
Network mapping Direct
Activation Sigmoid
Optimization Gradient Descent
Learning rate 0.005
Iterations 110000
Final accuracy 80%

20160725 v1.1

Feature Figure
Hidden layers 2
Hidden layer 1 units 32
Hidden layer 2 units 16
Features 4
Classifications 1
Training set size 520
Network mapping Sigmoid
Activation Sigmoid
Optimization Adam
Learning rate 0.0001
Iterations 30000
Final accuracy 85%

20160726 Commit 1ddd432

  • Need to fine tune the stochastic training

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