#!/usr/bin/python

from optparse import OptionParser

import json

import urllib2

import os

import sys

import math

from datetime import datetime

from time import time

from StringIO import StringIO

import gzip

reload(sys)

sys.setdefaultencoding('utf-8')

from opinions import opinions, boring

if __name__ == '__main__':

parser = OptionParser()

parser.add_option("-f", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="fetch_only", help="Fetch data if appropriate, then quit")

parser.add_option("-c", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="no_fetch", help="Run off cached only")

parser.add_option("-s", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="show_stats", help="Show stats")

parser.add_option("-n", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="show_new", help="Show new questions")

parser.add_option("-t", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="show_trading", help="Show trading opportunities")

parser.add_option("-u", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="show_unswung", help="Show unswung questions")

parser.add_option("-w", action="store_true", default=False,

dest="show_swung", help="Show swung questions")

(options, args) = parser.parse_args()

else:

args = ()

class Foo(object):

def __getattr__(self, attr):

return False

options = Foo()

FILE = "data.json"

if options.no_fetch or (os.access(FILE, os.R_OK) and \

time() < (os.stat(FILE).st_ctime + 3600)):

data = json.loads(open(FILE).read())

else:

req = urllib2.Request("https://scicast.org/questions/?include_prob=True&include_comment_count=True&include_trade_count=True&include_user_roles=False&include_question_clique=False&include_question_relationship=False")

req.add_header('Accept-encoding', 'gzip')

r = urllib2.urlopen(req)

if r.info().get('Content-Encoding') == 'gzip':

buf = StringIO(r.read())

f = gzip.GzipFile(fileobj=buf)

bs = f.read()

data = json.loads(bs)

else:

data = json.loads(r.read())

open(FILE, "w").write(json.dumps(data))

if options.fetch_only:

sys.exit(0)

data = filter(lambda q: q['question']['is_visible'] and q['question']['settled_at']==None, data)

by_id = { }

LOW_TRADES = 6

all_keys = set([])

trade_range = [1e6, 0]

comment_range = [1e6, 0]

low_trade_qs = []

for q in data:

all_keys |= set(q.keys())

trade_range[0] = min(trade_range[0], q['trade_count'])

trade_range[1] = max(trade_range[1], q['trade_count'])

if q['trade_count'] < LOW_TRADES:

low_trade_qs.append(q)

comment_range[0] = min(comment_range[0], q['comment_count'])

comment_range[1] = max(comment_range[1], q['comment_count'])

by_id[ q['question']['id'] ] = q

if options.show_stats:

print "questions:", len(data)

print "trade range:", trade_range

print "comment range:", comment_range

print "low trade count questions:", len(low_trade_qs)

new = set([])

if options.show_new:

print "************ NEW QUESTIONS"

for q in sorted(low_trade_qs, key=lambda q: (q['trade_count'], q['question']['id'])):

qid = q['question']['id']

if opinions.has_key(qid) or (qid in boring):

# i'm already aware of this one

continue

new.add(qid)

print "(%i) id %i \"%s\"" % (q['trade_count'], q['question']['id'], q['question']['name'])

def outcomes(start, stop):

return true

opportunities = set([])

if options.show_trading:

print

print "************ TRADING OPPORTUNITIES"

msgs = [ ]

for qid in opinions.keys():

if not by_id.has_key(qid):

continue

q = by_id[qid]

if q['question']['settlement_at'] == None:

settled_at = datetime(2050,1,1,0,0,0)

else:

settled_at = datetime.strptime(q['question']['settlement_at'][0:19], "%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S")

remaining = (settled_at - datetime.now()).total_seconds() / 86400.0

required_gain = 500.0

if remaining < 0:

continue

elif remaining < 1:

required_gain = 0.5

elif remaining < 2:

required_gain = 1.0

elif remaining < 7:

required_gain = 5.0

elif remaining < 14:

required_gain = 10.0

elif remaining < 30:

required_gain = 30.0

elif remaining < 90:

required_gain = 100.0

elif remaining < 365.0:

required_gain = 450.0

else:

required_gain = 500.0

choices = q['question_choices']

if len(choices)==0:

choices = [{'name': 'No'}, {'name': 'Yes'}]

msg = "(%i) id %i \"%s\"\n" % (q['trade_count'], q['question']['id'], q['question']['name'])

max_gainloss = 0.0

trade_appropriate = False

beliefs, strength = opinions[qid]

for prob, choice, belief in zip(q['prob'], choices, beliefs):

breadth = 0.15 / strength

min_prob = max(0.0, belief - breadth)

max_prob = min(1.0, belief + breadth)

if prob < min_prob:

# market is way below our belief

# opportunity to raise!

msg += " %s at %.1f%%; belief at %.1f%%\n" % (choice['name'].strip(), prob*100.0, belief*100.0)

o = outcomes(prob, min_prob)

gainloss = o[1] / abs(o[0])

max_gainloss = max(max_gainloss, gainloss)

if gainloss > required_gain:

msg += " to bring prob up to %.2f: gain/loss: %.2f\n" % (min_prob, gainloss)

trade_appropriate = True

elif max_prob < prob:

# market is way above our belief

# opportunity to lower!

msg += " %s at %.1f%%; belief at %.1f%%\n" % (choice['name'].strip(), prob*100.0, belief*100.0)

o = outcomes(prob, max_prob)

gainloss = o[1] / abs(o[0])

max_gainloss = max(max_gainloss, gainloss)

if gainloss > required_gain:

msg += " to bring prob down to %.2f: gain/loss: %.2f\n" % (max_prob, gainloss)

trade_appropriate = True

if trade_appropriate:

msgs.append( (max_gainloss, msg) )

opportunities.add(qid)

msgs.sort(key=lambda (g,m): g, reverse=False)

for gainloss, msg in msgs:

print msg

if len(msgs)==0:

print " none!"

if options.show_unswung:

print

print "************ UNSWUNG QUESTIONS"

for q in data:

qid = q['question']['id']

if opinions.has_key(qid) or (qid in boring) or (qid in new) or (qid in opportunities) or q['trade_count']<LOW_TRADES:

continue

mean = 1.0 / len(q['prob'])

stddev = math.sqrt(sum([ (x - mean)**2.0 for x in q['prob'] ]))

if stddev < 0.07:

print "(%i) id %i \"%s\"" % (q['trade_count'], q['question']['id'], q['question']['name'])

print " ", stddev, " ** ", ", ".join(map(lambda p: "%.2f" % (p,), q['prob']))

print

if options.show_swung:

print

print "************ SWUNG QUESTIONS"

for q in data:

qid = q['question']['id']

if opinions.has_key(qid) or (qid in boring) or (qid in new) or (qid in opportunities) or q['trade_count']<LOW_TRADES:

continue

swung = False

for prob in q['prob']:

if prob > 0.9:

swung = True

if swung:

print "(%i) id %i \"%s\"" % (q['trade_count'], q['question']['id'], q['question']['name'])

print " ", max(q['prob']), " ** ", ", ".join(map(lambda p: "%.2f" % (p,), q['prob']))

print