def run_competition(clients: List[Tuple[str, Client, ts.Rating]],
num_games: int) -> List[Tuple[str, ts.Rating]]:
game_id = 0
while True:
idx = get_client_pair_indexes(clients)
(n1, c1, r1), (n2, c2, r2) = np.take(clients, idx, axis=0)
if ts.quality_1vs1(r1, r2) < 0.2:
continue
first_won = run_game(c1, c2)
c_win, c_los, n_win, n_los, r_win, r_los, i_win, i_los = \
(c1, c2, n1, n2, r1, r2, idx[0], idx[1]) if first_won \
else (c2, c1, n2, n1, r2, r1, idx[1], idx[0])
r_win, r_los = ts.rate_1vs1(r_win, r_los)
clients[i_win] = (n_win, c_win, r_win)
clients[i_los] = (n_los, c_los, r_los)
# print(f'{n_win:<32} {ts.expose(r_win):6.1f} -- WON -- {n_los:<32} {ts.expose(r_los):6.1f}')
game_id += 1
if game_id == num_games:
break
return [(n, r) for (n, c, r) in clients]
def get_fairness(player, competition):
"""
Compute the probability of draw against all opponents (ie. how fair is the
game). Return an OrderedDict of players by score.
"""
qualities = {}
own_score = competition.get_score(player)
opponents = competition.players.exclude(pk=player.pk)
scores = (competition.scores.filter(
player__in=opponents).select_related('player'))
score_by_opponent = {score.player: score for score in scores}
for opponent in opponents:
if opponent not in score_by_opponent:
continue
score = score_by_opponent[opponent]
quality = quality_1vs1(Rating(own_score.score, own_score.stdev),
Rating(score.score, score.stdev))
qualities[opponent] = {'score': score, 'quality': quality * 100}
return OrderedDict(
sorted(qualities.items(),
key=lambda t: t[1]['score'].score,
reverse=True))
def make_matchups(workers_to_match, project_group_id, review_project, inter_task_review, match_group_id, batch_id):
matched_workers = []
for index in xrange(0, len(workers_to_match)):
if workers_to_match[index] not in matched_workers:
if len(workers_to_match) - len(matched_workers) == 1:
is_last_worker = True
start = 0
else:
is_last_worker = False
start = index + 1
first_worker = workers_to_match[index]
first_score = trueskill.Rating(mu=first_worker['score'].mu,
sigma=first_worker['score'].sigma)
best_quality = 0
second_worker = None
is_intertask_match = None
for j in xrange(start, len(workers_to_match)):
if is_last_worker or workers_to_match[j] not in matched_workers:
second_score = trueskill.Rating(mu=workers_to_match[j]['score'].mu,
sigma=workers_to_match[j]['score'].sigma)
quality = trueskill.quality_1vs1(first_score, second_score)
if quality > best_quality:
is_intertask_match = False
best_quality = quality
second_worker = workers_to_match[j]
if second_worker is not None:
matched_workers.append(first_worker)
if not is_intertask_match:
matched_workers.append(second_worker)
create_review_task(first_worker, second_worker, review_project, match_group_id, batch_id)
async def matchmaking(context):
"""Finds a player to play against"""
discord_id = context.message.author.id
mention = context.message.author.mention
try:
player = Player.objects.get(discord_id=discord_id)
except Player.DoesNotExist:
await context.send(
mention + ' you are not registered in the league!'
'type ' + BOT.command_prefix +
'register <jstris nickname> to register in the league')
return
# TrueSkill setup
setup(mu=TRUESKILL_MU,
sigma=TRUESKILL_SIGMA,
beta=TRUESKILL_BETA,
tau=TRUESKILL_TAU)
if 'scipy' in backends.available_backends():
# scipy can be used in the current environment
backends.choose_backend(backend='scipy')
# Setup the Rating for the asking player
rating_asking = Rating(mu=player.trueskill_mu,
sigma=player.trueskill_sigma)
players = Player.objects.exclude(discord_id=discord_id)
best_match = None
best_quality = 0.0
for player_match in players:
player_rating = Rating(mu=player_match.trueskill_mu,
sigma=player_match.trueskill_sigma)
quality = quality_1vs1(rating_asking, player_rating)
if quality > best_quality:
best_quality = quality
best_match = player_match
await context.send(player.discord_nickname + ' should play against ' +
best_match.discord_nickname)
def get_policy_file_key_weighted_by_skill_similarity(
self, policy_to_match_with, exclude_keys=None):
if exclude_keys is None:
exclude_keys = []
exclude_keys.append(policy_to_match_with)
policy_skill_rating, data, games_ranked_on, policy_mixture = self.catalog[
policy_to_match_with]
tmp_catalog = self._get_catalog_subset(exclude_keys=exclude_keys)
all_policy_keys, policy_vals = zip(*tmp_catalog.items())
all_policy_skills = [v[0] for v in policy_vals]
weights = [
quality_1vs1(rating1=policy_skill_rating, rating2=other)
for other in all_policy_skills
]
weights = np.asarray(weights)
weights /= sum(weights)
selected_policy_key = np.random.choice(all_policy_keys, p=weights)
assert selected_policy_key != policy_to_match_with
selected_policy_key = self.sample_policy_key_if_key_is_for_mixture(
selected_policy_key)
return selected_policy_key
def win_probability(self, players: List[str]) -> Dict[str, float]:
"""
Return the win and draw probabilities of two players.
Take care that the draw probability plus the two win probabilities do
not sum to 1. The two win probabilities *do* sum to 1, though.
:players: List of two player names.
:returns: Dictionary with <players[0]>, <players[1]>, and 'draw' as
keys and the respective probabilities as values.
"""
if len(players) != 2:
raise NotImplementedError(
"Win probability is only implemented for two players.")
# Retrieve ratings based on earlier games.
# Default rating will be used if players have not played earlier.
true_skills = self.true_skill()
player_1 = true_skills.get(players[0], Rating())
player_2 = true_skills.get(players[1], Rating())
# Calculate the probability of a draw
draw_probability = quality_1vs1(player_1, player_2)
# Calculate the win probability of each player using the normal
# distributions of the two players.
delta_mu = player_1.mu - player_2.mu
denominator = np.sqrt(player_1.sigma**2 + player_2.sigma**2)
player_1_win_chance = self.env.cdf(delta_mu / denominator)
player_2_win_chance = 1 - player_1_win_chance
return {
"draw": draw_probability,
"player_1": player_1_win_chance,
"player_2": player_2_win_chance,
}
def quality_with(self, opponent):
if not isinstance(opponent, Player):
raise TypeError("{} is not a valid player to match with".format(opponent))
if not getattr(opponent, self.rating_prop):
return 0
return quality_1vs1(Rating(*getattr(self.player, self.rating_prop)),
Rating(*getattr(opponent, self.rating_prop)))
def quality_with(self, opponent):
if not isinstance(opponent, Player):
raise TypeError("{} is not a valid player to match with".format(opponent))
if not getattr(opponent, self.rating_prop):
return 0
return quality_1vs1(Rating(*self.rating),
Rating(*getattr(opponent, self.rating_prop)))
def FindMatch(labratID, battleDog):
cats = Cats.query.all()
battleDogTrueSkill = battleDog
x = (LabRats.query.get_or_404(labratID)).battle_order
x = x.encode('ascii', 'ignore')
battleOrder = x.split()
battleOrder = list(map(int, battleOrder))
print("battleOrder", battleOrder)
# lowerLimit = battleDogMean - 2*battleDogDeviation
# upperLimit = battleDogMean + 2*battleDogDeviation
bestRating = 99999
for cat in cats: # Going through all our cats because do not have many cats, but originally only loop from (mu-2*sigma) to (mu+2*sigma)
catMean = cat.mean
catDeviation = cat.deviation
tempCatTrueSkill = Rating(mu=catMean, sigma=catDeviation)
tempQuality = quality_1vs1(battleDogTrueSkill, tempCatTrueSkill)
if cat.id in battleOrder:
continue
if (
abs(tempQuality - 50) < bestRating
): # Finding closest matchup, i.e 50% draw prob. and checking if (i) has been selected already
bestRating = abs(tempQuality - 50)
bestCat = cat # Best Match yet (this is dataclip)
# Pepega
print('Battle Dog Mean =',
battleDogTrueSkill.mu,
'Battle Dog Sigma =',
battleDogTrueSkill.sigma,
file=sys.stderr)
print('Best Cat =', bestCat.id, ',', bestCat.mean, file=sys.stderr)
return bestCat
def make_matchups(workers_to_match, project_group_id, review_project,
inter_task_review, match_group_id, batch_id):
matched_workers = []
for index in xrange(0, len(workers_to_match)):
if workers_to_match[index] not in matched_workers:
if len(workers_to_match) - len(matched_workers) == 1:
is_last_worker = True
start = 0
else:
is_last_worker = False
start = index + 1
first_worker = workers_to_match[index]
first_score = trueskill.Rating(mu=first_worker['score'].mu,
sigma=first_worker['score'].sigma)
best_quality = 0
second_worker = None
is_intertask_match = None
for j in xrange(start, len(workers_to_match)):
if is_last_worker or workers_to_match[j] not in matched_workers:
second_score = trueskill.Rating(
mu=workers_to_match[j]['score'].mu,
sigma=workers_to_match[j]['score'].sigma)
quality = trueskill.quality_1vs1(first_score, second_score)
if quality > best_quality:
is_intertask_match = False
best_quality = quality
second_worker = workers_to_match[j]
if second_worker is not None:
matched_workers.append(first_worker)
if not is_intertask_match:
matched_workers.append(second_worker)
create_review_task(first_worker, second_worker, review_project,
match_group_id, batch_id)
def _get_match(game_id):
game = get_object_or_404(Game, pk=game_id)
rankdiff = int(5 / pow(random(), 0.65))
bot_list = Bot.objects.filter(game=game).order_by("last_played")
print(bot_list)
match = Match()
match.game = game
match.bot1 = bot_list[0]
bot1_id = bot_list[0].id
bot_list.order_by("-score")
print(match.bot1)
print(bot_list)
opp_list = []
for i in range(len(bot_list)):
if bot_list[i].id == bot1_id:
print(i, len(bot_list))
opp_list += (bot_list[max(i - rankdiff, 0):i])
if (i + 1 < len(bot_list)):
opp_list += (bot_list[i + 1:min(i + rankdiff, len(bot_list))])
break
bot1_rate = Rating(mu=match.bot1.mu, sigma=match.bot1.sigma)
print(opp_list)
opp_list = sorted(opp_list,
key=lambda x: (x.games_played, -quality_1vs1(
Rating(mu=x.mu, sigma=x.sigma), bot1_rate)))
print(opp_list)
match.bot2 = opp_list[0]
match.state = 1
match.save()
return match
def calculate_quality_of_game_players(player1: 'Skill',
player2: 'Skill') -> int:
"""
Calculate the quality of the game, which is the likelihood of the game being a draw (evenly balanced).
Returns a percentage.
"""
return int(
trueskill.quality_1vs1(player1.rating, player2.rating) * 100)
def quality_with(self, opponent_search: 'Search'):
if not isinstance(opponent_search.player, Player):
raise TypeError("{} is not a valid player to match with".format(
opponent_search.player))
if opponent_search.raw_rating is None:
return 0
return quality_1vs1(Rating(*self.rating),
Rating(*opponent_search.rating))
def choose_opponent(self):
# Return the opponent with the best drawing probability
# The drawing prob is given by quality_1vs1(r1,r2)
games_played = self.player.games_played
if not self.baseline:
if self.player.rank_updates == 0:
self.update_opponent_ranking()
draw_probabilities = [
quality_1vs1(self.player.rating, opp.rating)
for opp in self.parameter_sets
]
sigmas = [opp.rating.sigma for opp in self.parameter_sets]
if self.verbose:
rospy.loginfo('Draw probabilities: {}'.format(draw_probabilities))
rospy.loginfo('Sigmas: {}'.format(sigmas))
new_opponent_index = np.argmax(draw_probabilities)
if self.baseline or self.player.games_played < 4:
# Take greedy decision
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
else:
try:
if new_opponent_index != self.opponent_index:
delta_sigma = abs(sigmas[new_opponent_index] -
sigmas[self.opponent_index])
delta_treshold = 0.5
# Verifiy how much is better the new one
delta_p = draw_probabilities[
new_opponent_index] - draw_probabilities[
self.opponent_index]
p_treshold = 0.1
if delta_p > p_treshold:
delta_sigma = abs(sigmas[new_opponent_index] -
sigmas[self.opponent_index])
if delta_sigma > delta_treshold:
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
# delta_sigma = sigmas[new_opponent_index] - sigmas[self.opponent_index]
# delta_treshold = 0.2 * self.set_changes
# delta_treshold = max(delta_treshold, 0.7)
if self.verbose:
rospy.loginfo(
'Setting a treshold of {}'.format(delta_treshold))
rospy.loginfo('Delta sigma: {}'.format(delta_sigma))
# if delta_sigma > delta_treshold:
# if self.verbose:
# rospy.loginfo('Changing set..')
# self.set_changes += 1
# self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
except Exception as e:
# First time, we have to inizialize the variable
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
best_level = self.parameter_sets[self.opponent_index].level_id
return best_level
def test_compatibility_with_another_rating_systems():
"""All rating system modules should implement ``rate_1vs1`` and
``quality_1vs1`` to provide shortcuts for 1 vs 1 simple competition games.
"""
r1, r2 = Rating(30, 3), Rating(20, 2)
assert quality_1vs1(r1, r2) == quality([(r1,), (r2,)])
rated = rate([(r1,), (r2,)])
assert rate_1vs1(r1, r2) == (rated[0][0], rated[1][0])
rated = rate([(r1,), (r2,)], [0, 0])
assert rate_1vs1(r1, r2, drawn=True) == (rated[0][0], rated[1][0])
def test_compatibility_with_another_rating_systems():
"""All rating system modules should implement ``rate_1vs1`` and
``quality_1vs1`` to provide shortcuts for 1 vs 1 simple competition games.
"""
r1, r2 = Rating(30, 3), Rating(20, 2)
assert quality_1vs1(r1, r2) == quality([(r1, ), (r2, )])
rated = rate([(r1, ), (r2, )])
assert rate_1vs1(r1, r2) == (rated[0][0], rated[1][0])
rated = rate([(r1, ), (r2, )], [0, 0])
assert rate_1vs1(r1, r2, drawn=True) == (rated[0][0], rated[1][0])
def find_match(player1, agent_pool):
match_quality = list()
eligible_opponent = list()
for agent in agent_pool:
if agent == player1:
continue
else:
match_quality.append(trueskill.quality_1vs1(player1.rating,
agent.rating))
eligible_opponent.append(agent)
match_quality = np.exp(match_quality)/sum(np.exp(match_quality))
return np.random.choice(eligible_opponent, p=match_quality)
def quality_and_probability(players, names):
p0, p1 = players[names[0]], players[names[1]]
quality = trueskill.quality_1vs1(p0, p1)
probability = arduino_map((1-quality)*100, 0, 100, 50, 100)/100
ex0, ex1 = trueskill.expose(p0), trueskill.expose(p1)
if ex0 == ex1:
favor = None
elif ex0>ex1:
favor = names[0]
else:
favor = names[1]
return quality, probability, favor
def updateDone(value):
"""Callback method for update."""
p1 = self.getPlayer(user1)
p2 = self.getPlayer(user2)
if p1 is None or p2 is None or p1 == p2:
newDeferred.callback(None)
else:
newDeferred.callback((p1.name, p2.name,
trueskill.quality_1vs1(p1.skill,
p2.skill),
p1.rating, p2.rating))
self.session.close()
def get_match_quality(self, match):
team_a, team_b = match[0], match[1]
# Two teams in one match, number of rounds ignored
if len(match[0]) == len(match[1]):
team_a_skills = [self.get_player_skill(p) for p in team_a]
team_a_skills = self.__modify_team_sigmas_by_mu_ratio(team_a_skills)
team_b_skills = [self.get_player_skill(p) for p in team_b]
team_b_skills = self.__modify_team_sigmas_by_mu_ratio(team_b_skills)
return quality([team_a_skills, team_b_skills])
else:
# Unmatched teams, aggregate team skill and rate as 1vs1
skill_team_a = self.get_team_skill(team_a)
skill_team_b = self.get_team_skill(team_b)
return quality_1vs1(skill_team_a, skill_team_b)
def add_trueskill(df, users_rating, questions_rating, update=True):
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------
users_mean = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
users_var = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
questions_mean = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
questions_var = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
win_prob = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
quality = np.zeros(len(df), dtype=np.float32)
for num, row in enumerate(
tqdm(df[['user_id', 'content_id', 'answered_correctly']].values)):
users_mean[num] = users_rating[row[0]].mu
users_var[num] = users_rating[row[0]].sigma
questions_mean[num] = questions_rating[row[1]].mu
questions_var[num] = questions_rating[row[1]].sigma
win_prob[num] = win_probability(users_rating[row[0]],
questions_rating[row[1]])
quality[num] = quality_1vs1(users_rating[row[0]],
questions_rating[row[1]])
if update is True:
old_user_rating = users_rating[row[0]]
old_question_rating = questions_rating[row[1]]
if row[2] == 1:
new_user_rating, new_question_rating = rate_1vs1(
old_user_rating, old_question_rating)
if row[2] == 0:
new_question_rating, new_user_rating = rate_1vs1(
old_question_rating, old_user_rating)
users_rating[row[0]] = new_user_rating
questions_rating[row[1]] = new_question_rating
user_df = pd.DataFrame({
'u_mu': users_mean,
'u_sigma': users_var,
'q_mu': questions_mean,
'q_sigma': questions_var,
'win_prob': win_prob,
'quality': quality
})
df = pd.concat([df, user_df], axis=1)
return df
def choose_opponent(self):
# Return the opponent with the best drawing probability
# The drawing prob is given by quality_1vs1(r1,r2)
games_played = self.player.games_played
if not self.baseline:
if self.player.rank_updates == 0:
self.update_opponent_ranking()
# player_rating = Rating(self.player_row[3], self.player_row[4])
# opponent_ratings = [Rating(opp[3], opp[4]) for opp in self.opponent_rows]
draw_probabilities = [
quality_1vs1(self.player.rating, opp.rating)
for opp in self.parameter_sets
]
sigmas = [opp.rating.sigma for opp in self.parameter_sets]
if self.verbose:
print('Draw probabilities: {}'.format(draw_probabilities))
print('Sigmas: {}'.format(sigmas))
new_opponent_index = np.argmax(draw_probabilities)
if self.baseline:
# Take greedy decision
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
else:
try:
if new_opponent_index != self.opponent_index:
delta_sigma = abs(sigmas[new_opponent_index] -
sigmas[self.opponent_index])
delta_treshold = 0.5
# delta_sigma = sigmas[new_opponent_index] - sigmas[self.opponent_index]
# delta_treshold = 0.2 * self.set_changes
# delta_treshold = max(delta_treshold, 0.7)
if self.verbose:
print(
'Setting a treshold of {}'.format(delta_treshold))
print('Delta sigma: {}'.format(delta_sigma))
if delta_sigma > delta_treshold:
if self.verbose:
print('Changing set..')
self.set_changes += 1
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
except Exception as e:
# First time, we have to inizialize the variable
self.opponent_index = new_opponent_index
best_level = self.parameter_sets[self.opponent_index].level_id
return best_level
def start_session(self):
self.get_current_session().start()
session_players = self.get_current_session().get_players()
# Set the start time of the current session in remote
self.get_db().child('current_session').update({
'session_started':
self.get_current_session().start_time.isoformat(),
'trueskill_quality':
quality_1vs1(session_players[0].get_trueskill_rating(),
session_players[1].get_trueskill_rating())
})
# Send a notification to listeners
for game_listener in self.game_listeners:
game_listener.on_start_session(
self.get_current_session().get_players())
def updateDone(value):
"""Callback method for update."""
player = self.getPlayer(user)
if player is None:
newDeferred.callback(None)
else:
players = (self.session.query(Player)
.filter(Player.pid != player.pid)
.all())
best = [(other.name, trueskill.quality_1vs1(player.skill,
other.skill))
for other in players]
best = sorted(best, key=lambda p: p[1], reverse=True)
best_names = [p[0] for p in best[0:n]]
newDeferred.callback((player.name, best_names))
self.session.close()
def choose_opponent(self):
robotic_players_rows = self.db.get_all_robotic_players(
self.current_player_record[0])
robotic_players = []
for robotic_players_row in robotic_players_rows:
robotic_players.append(
trueskill.Rating(robotic_players_row[3],
robotic_players_row[4]))
draw_probabilities = []
for robotic_player in robotic_players:
draw_probabilities.append(
trueskill.quality_1vs1(self.current_player_rating,
robotic_player))
if np.random.uniform() < (0.2 / (self.changes + 1)):
best_index = np.random.choice(range(3))
self.changes += 1
else:
choice_made = False
for i, rp in enumerate(robotic_players):
sum_sigma = 0
for j, rp2 in enumerate(robotic_players):
if j != i:
sum_sigma += rp2.sigma
if robotic_players[i].sigma >= sum_sigma:
choice_made = True
best_index = i
break
# Seems this is overriding the choice made during the previous loops
if not choice_made:
best_index = np.argmax(draw_probabilities)
best_robotic_player_id = robotic_players_rows[best_index][
2] # Get level id
self.set_current_robotic_player(robotic_players_rows[best_index][0])
return best_robotic_player_id
async def crladder_quality(self, ctx, name, member1: discord.Member, member2: discord.Member = None):
"""1v1 Drawing chance."""
author = ctx.message.author
server = ctx.message.server
if member2 is None:
pm1 = author
pm2 = member1
else:
pm1 = member1
pm2 = member2
try:
series = self.settings.get_series_by_name(server, name)
if series is None:
raise NoSuchSeries
p1 = None
p2 = None
for player in series['players']:
if str(player['discord_id']) == pm1.id:
p1 = player
if str(player['discord_id']) == pm2.id:
p2 = player
if p1 is None:
raise NoSuchPlayer
if p2 is None:
raise NoSuchPlayer
except NoSuchSeries:
await self.bot.say("No series with that name on this server.")
except NoSuchPlayer:
await self.bot.say("Player not found.")
else:
p1_rating = env.create_rating(mu=p1['rating']['mu'], sigma=p1['rating']['sigma'])
p2_rating = env.create_rating(mu=p2['rating']['mu'], sigma=p2['rating']['sigma'])
await self.bot.say(
"If {} plays against {}, "
"there is a {:.1%} chance to draw.".format(
pm1, pm2, quality_1vs1(p1_rating, p2_rating)
)
)
def get_voting(self, user_id):
"""
Get two entries to vote using sophisticated algorithm.
:return: Tuple of two entries if conditions are met. Otherwise false.
"""
entries = [e for e in self.get_entries() if e.user_id != user_id]
user = User.get_or_404(user_id=user_id)
if len(entries) >= 2:
entry1 = random.choice(entries)
entry2 = random.choice(entries)
rating1 = entry1.rating
rating2 = entry2.rating
impatience = 0
while entry1.id == entry2.id or quality_1vs1(rating1, rating2) < 0.3 - impatience or \
(user.is_voted(entry1.battle_id, entry1.id, entry2.id) and impatience < 1): # FIXME
entry1 = random.choice(entries)
entry2 = random.choice(entries)
impatience += 0.01
if not user.is_voted(entry1.battle_id, entry1.id,
entry2.id) and not entry1.id == entry2.id:
return entry1, entry2
return None
def get_matchup(participant_team_ids, mmr):
# Choose the first player randomly.
player1_id = np.random.choice(participant_team_ids, size=1, replace=False)
# Compute the probability the chosen player should face the other remaining teams. Compute the probabilities
# such that players closer to each other in MMR are more likely to play each other.
other_players = list(participant_team_ids)
other_players.remove(player1_id)
# The faceoff probability is computed based on the 'quality_1vs1' method of the trueskill module. Perfectly
# matched MMRs return a match quality of ~0.44, and sharply falls off to 0 as the MMRs diverge. To avoid having
# the same teams play against each other continuously, a bias of ~0.1 is added to the weighting of each opponent.
faceoff_probabilities = np.array([
0.10 + quality_1vs1(mmr[int(player1_id)], mmr[int(x)])
for x in other_players
])
faceoff_probabilities /= faceoff_probabilities.sum()
player2_id = np.random.choice(other_players,
size=1,
replace=False,
p=faceoff_probabilities)
player1_id, player2_id = sorted([int(player1_id), int(player2_id)])
return player1_id, player2_id
def calculate_matchup_probabilities(self):
# Calculate [P(matchup), ...] for every entrant.
matchup_probs_by_entrant = {
} # name: ([opp_name...], [matchup_prob...])
for name, entrant in self.entrants.items():
opp_names = []
p_draws = []
# Get P(draw | opp) for every opp
for opp_name, opp_entrant in self.entrants.items():
if name == opp_name:
continue
opp_names.append(opp_name)
p_draw = quality_1vs1(entrant.skill_rating,
opp_entrant.skill_rating)
p_draws.append(p_draw)
# Normalize by sum(p_draw)
p_draw_sum = sum(p_draws)
matchup_probs = [x / p_draw_sum for x in p_draws]
# Stash
matchup_probs_by_entrant[name] = (opp_names, matchup_probs)
return matchup_probs_by_entrant
def generate_matches(task_worker_ids, review_project, is_inter_task, match_group):
cursor = connection.cursor()
# noinspection SqlResolve
query = '''
SELECT
tw.id,
tw.worker_id,
coalesce(match_workers.mu, 25.0) mu,
coalesce(match_workers.sigma, 8.333) sigma,
u.username,
tw.task_id
FROM crowdsourcing_taskworker tw
INNER JOIN auth_user u ON u.id = tw.worker_id
LEFT OUTER JOIN (
SELECT *
FROM (
SELECT
max_mw.project_group_id,
max_mw.worker_id,
mw.sigma,
mw.mu,
tw.id task_worker_id
FROM crowdsourcing_matchworker mw
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_match m ON m.id = mw.match_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_taskworker tw ON tw.id = mw.task_worker_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_task t ON t.id = tw.task_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_project p ON p.id = t.project_id
INNER JOIN
(SELECT
p.group_id project_group_id,
tw.worker_id,
max(m.submitted_at) submitted_at
FROM crowdsourcing_matchworker mw
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_match m ON m.id = mw.match_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_taskworker tw ON tw.id = mw.task_worker_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_task t ON t.id = tw.task_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_project p ON p.id = t.project_id
GROUP BY p.group_id, tw.worker_id) max_mw
ON max_mw.project_group_id = p.group_id AND max_mw.worker_id = tw.worker_id AND
max_mw.submitted_at = m.submitted_at
) mw
) match_workers ON match_workers.task_worker_id = tw.id
WHERE tw.id = ANY(%(ids)s);
'''
cursor.execute(query, {'ids': task_worker_ids})
worker_scores = cursor.fetchall()
match_workers = []
newly_matched = []
if not is_inter_task: # TODO add inter task support later
to_match = {}
for worker_score in worker_scores:
task_id = str(worker_score[5])
if task_id not in to_match:
to_match[task_id] = []
to_match[task_id].append(worker_score)
for task_id in to_match:
length = len(to_match[task_id])
for i, worker_score in enumerate(to_match[task_id]):
if worker_score in newly_matched:
continue
score_one = worker_score
rating_one = trueskill.Rating(mu=score_one[2], sigma=score_one[3])
best_quality = 0
score_two = None
for inner_ws in to_match[task_id]:
if inner_ws != score_one and \
(inner_ws not in newly_matched or (length - 1 == i and i % 2 == 0)) and \
score_one[1] != inner_ws[1] and score_one[5] == inner_ws[5]:
rating_two = trueskill.Rating(mu=inner_ws[2], sigma=inner_ws[3])
match_quality = trueskill.quality_1vs1(rating_one, rating_two)
if match_quality > best_quality:
best_quality = match_quality
score_two = inner_ws
if score_two is not None:
newly_matched.append(score_one)
newly_matched.append(score_two)
task = Task.objects.create(
data={"task_workers": [{'username': score_one[4], 'task_worker': score_one[0]},
{'username': score_two[4], 'task_worker': score_two[0]}]},
batch_id=match_group.batch_id, project_id=review_project.id, min_rating=1.99)
task.group_id = task.id
task.save()
match = Match.objects.create(group=match_group, task=task)
match_workers.append(
MatchWorker(match=match, task_worker_id=score_one[0], old_mu=score_one[2],
old_sigma=score_one[3])
)
match_workers.append(
MatchWorker(match=match, task_worker_id=score_two[0], old_mu=score_two[2],
old_sigma=score_two[3])
)
MatchWorker.objects.bulk_create(match_workers)
# Task.objects.bulk_create(review_tasks)
return [s[0] for s in newly_matched]
def generate_matches(task_worker_ids, review_project, is_inter_task,
match_group):
cursor = connection.cursor()
# noinspection SqlResolve
query = '''
SELECT
tw.id,
tw.worker_id,
coalesce(match_workers.mu, 25.0) mu,
coalesce(match_workers.sigma, 8.333) sigma,
u.username,
tw.task_id
FROM crowdsourcing_taskworker tw
INNER JOIN auth_user u ON u.id = tw.worker_id
LEFT OUTER JOIN (
SELECT *
FROM (
SELECT
max_mw.project_group_id,
max_mw.worker_id,
mw.sigma,
mw.mu,
tw.id task_worker_id
FROM crowdsourcing_matchworker mw
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_match m ON m.id = mw.match_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_taskworker tw ON tw.id = mw.task_worker_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_task t ON t.id = tw.task_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_project p ON p.id = t.project_id
INNER JOIN
(SELECT
p.group_id project_group_id,
tw.worker_id,
max(m.submitted_at) submitted_at
FROM crowdsourcing_matchworker mw
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_match m ON m.id = mw.match_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_taskworker tw ON tw.id = mw.task_worker_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_task t ON t.id = tw.task_id
INNER JOIN crowdsourcing_project p ON p.id = t.project_id
GROUP BY p.group_id, tw.worker_id) max_mw
ON max_mw.project_group_id = p.group_id AND max_mw.worker_id = tw.worker_id AND
max_mw.submitted_at = m.submitted_at
) mw
) match_workers ON match_workers.task_worker_id = tw.id
WHERE tw.id = ANY(%(ids)s);
'''
cursor.execute(query, {'ids': task_worker_ids})
worker_scores = cursor.fetchall()
match_workers = []
newly_matched = []
if not is_inter_task: # TODO add inter task support later
to_match = {}
for worker_score in worker_scores:
task_id = str(worker_score[5])
if task_id not in to_match:
to_match[task_id] = []
to_match[task_id].append(worker_score)
for task_id in to_match:
length = len(to_match[task_id])
for i, worker_score in enumerate(to_match[task_id]):
if worker_score in newly_matched:
continue
score_one = worker_score
rating_one = trueskill.Rating(mu=score_one[2],
sigma=score_one[3])
best_quality = 0
score_two = None
for inner_ws in to_match[task_id]:
if inner_ws != score_one and \
(inner_ws not in newly_matched or (length - 1 == i and i % 2 == 0)) and \
score_one[1] != inner_ws[1] and score_one[5] == inner_ws[5]:
rating_two = trueskill.Rating(mu=inner_ws[2],
sigma=inner_ws[3])
match_quality = trueskill.quality_1vs1(
rating_one, rating_two)
if match_quality > best_quality:
best_quality = match_quality
score_two = inner_ws
if score_two is not None:
newly_matched.append(score_one)
newly_matched.append(score_two)
task = Task.objects.create(data={
"task_workers": [{
'username': score_one[4],
'task_worker': score_one[0]
}, {
'username': score_two[4],
'task_worker': score_two[0]
}]
},
batch_id=match_group.batch_id,
project_id=review_project.id,
min_rating=1.99)
task.group_id = task.id
task.save()
match = Match.objects.create(group=match_group, task=task)
match_workers.append(
MatchWorker(match=match,
task_worker_id=score_one[0],
old_mu=score_one[2],
old_sigma=score_one[3]))
match_workers.append(
MatchWorker(match=match,
task_worker_id=score_two[0],
old_mu=score_two[2],
old_sigma=score_two[3]))
MatchWorker.objects.bulk_create(match_workers)
# Task.objects.bulk_create(review_tasks)
return [s[0] for s in newly_matched]
def quality(player_1, player_2):
return int(quality_1vs1(player_1.rating, player_2.rating)*100)
## Estimate Suggested random pairing
from random import sample
from random import random
print('\n'.join(
list(map(lambda i: str(i) + " -> " + teams[i], list(range(len(teams)))))))
toPlay = list(range(len(teams))) * 2
toPlay = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11] * 2
matches = []
while len(toPlay) > 2:
# pick two teams
pair = sample(toPlay, 2)
if pair[0] != pair[1] and \
random() <= quality_1vs1(ratings[pair[0]], ratings[pair[1]]) :
matches.append([
teams[pair[0]], teams[pair[1]],
'{:.1%}'.format(quality_1vs1(ratings[pair[0]], ratings[pair[1]]))
])
toPlay.remove(pair[0])
toPlay.remove(pair[1])
# save matches
import csv
with open('next_matches.csv', 'w', newline='') as csvfile:
writer = csv.writer(csvfile, delimiter=',')
for pairing in matches:
writer.writerow(pairing)
def main(hyper_params, train=0):
logger.info('Starting main training')
hyper_params = list(hyper_params)
# bet_multi_param = int(round(hyper_params.pop(0)))
bet_multi_param = -14
all_data = DATA_2018_07 + DATA_2018_08 + DATA_2018_09 + DATA_2018_10 + \
DATA_2019_01 + DATA_2019_02 + DATA_2019_03 + DATA_2019_04 + DATA_2019_05 + DATA_2019_06 + \
DATA_2019_07 + DATA_2019_08 + DATA_2019_09 + DATA_2019_10 + DATA_2019_11 + \
DATA_2020_01 + DATA
# bet_sfcr_a, bet_sfcr_b,
bet_sfcr_a = 10.007218390537238
bet_sfcr_b = -5.501752363680982
# bet_age_a, bet_age_b, bet_spd_a, bet_spd_b,
bet_age_a = -1.8635234765777555
bet_age_b = 24.92516053266948
bet_spd_a = -22.450915143817532
bet_spd_b = 50.81331907162685
# bet_setr_a, bet_setr_b, bet_drsw_a, bet_drsw_b, bet_tiel_a, bet_tiel_b = hyper_params
bet_setr_a = -18.420335662272393
bet_setr_b = -3.0849265357219013
bet_drsw_a = -13.931397245705076
bet_drsw_b = 8.617939186326849
bet_tiel_a = -14.597410948570172
bet_tiel_b = 18.506415802460246
# bet_wnlr_a, bet_wnlr_b, bet_upsw_a, bet_upsw_b, bet_drs_a, bet_drs_b = hyper_params
bet_wnlr_a = 0.5759959382580377
bet_wnlr_b = -3.149020744259276
bet_upsw_a = -6.916534460758778
bet_upsw_b = 4.136262175260056
bet_drs_a = -5.068401842647043
bet_drs_b = -11.036583332479655
# bet_gms_a, bet_gms_b, bet_drsl_a, bet_drsl_b, bet_tmi_a, bet_tmi_b = hyper_params
bet_gms_a = -1.1199718460907597
bet_gms_b = -4.975264460039275
bet_drsl_a = -3.5193793439419188
bet_drsl_b = 8.157513638414523
bet_tmi_a = -1.6290341203972258
bet_tmi_b = 11.182173806372235
# bet_wnlw_a, bet_wnlw_b, bet_setw_a, bet_setw_b, bet_setl_a, bet_setl_b = hyper_params
bet_wnlw_a = -15.125372111294066
bet_wnlw_b = -22.583131894175065
bet_setw_a = 24.489629815162466
bet_setw_b = -32.34158251098889
bet_setl_a = -12.946297107133
bet_setl_b = 6.99071560946205
# bet_tier_a, bet_tier_b, bet_upsl_a, bet_upsl_b, bet_ts_a, bet_ts_b = hyper_params
bet_tier_a = 76.69376718420321
bet_tier_b = 0.22499021217210005
bet_upsl_a = 50.652313466232535
bet_upsl_b = -54.1700508996346
bet_ts_a = -41.55281708232367
bet_ts_b = 15.054725376991598
# bet_upsr_a, bet_upsr_b, bet_sfcw_a, bet_sfcw_b, bet_wnll_a, bet_wnll_b = hyper_params
bet_upsr_a = 1.7388898924369287
bet_upsr_b = -3.651644175622176
bet_sfcw_a = 4.708276194896277
bet_sfcw_b = 2.837036795184313
bet_wnll_a = 6.390115360073748
bet_wnll_b = -5.559582537604789
# bet_tma_a, bet_tma_b, bet_lati_a, bet_lati_b, bet_tiew_a, bet_tiew_b = hyper_params
bet_tma_a = 8.508661586868248
bet_tma_b = -0.9753566485775689
bet_lati_a = 14.255555245990033
bet_lati_b = 0.31998644244105373
bet_tiew_a = -1.1450370999467043
bet_tiew_b = -3.4693811126912357
# init
start_date = None
ratings = defaultdict(lambda: Rating())
wins_losses = defaultdict(lambda: [])
doors = defaultdict(lambda: [])
surfaces = defaultdict(lambda: [])
speeds = defaultdict(lambda: [100, 0])
sets = defaultdict(lambda: [])
games = defaultdict(lambda: [0])
ties = defaultdict(lambda: [])
last_ties = defaultdict(lambda: [])
upsets = defaultdict(lambda: [])
payouts = []
bet_amts = []
accuracy = []
trueskill = []
matches = 0
tab = []
tab_amts = []
actual = (0, 0)
actual_debug = []
bet_multis = []
bet_multis_cat = []
# loop through scenes
for i, event in enumerate(all_data):
bet_size = 1
if not start_date:
start_date = datetime.strptime(event['date'], '%Y-%m-%d')
logger.info('')
logger.info(f'{event["date"]} {event["location"]["name"]}')
for match in event['matches']:
# skip if no odds:
if 'odds' not in match:
continue
p1, p2 = match['players']
# odds data
p1_odds = match['odds'][p1]
p2_odds = match['odds'][p2]
if not -40 < p1_odds < 40 or not -40 < p2_odds < 40:
raise ValueError(
f'surely these odds are wrong? {p1_odds} {p2_odds}')
# trueskill data
p1_ts = ratings[p1].mu
p2_ts = ratings[p2].mu
p1_sigma = ratings[p1].sigma
p2_sigma = ratings[p2].sigma
# trueskill min data
p1_ts_min = p1_ts - p1_sigma * 2
p2_ts_min = p2_ts - p2_sigma * 2
# trueskill max data
p1_ts_max = p1_ts + p1_sigma * 2
p2_ts_max = p2_ts + p2_sigma * 2
# trueskill match quality
ts_quality = quality_1vs1(ratings[p1], ratings[p2])
# wins losses
p1_wins_losses = Counter(wins_losses[p1])
p1_wins = p1_wins_losses[1]
p1_losses = p1_wins_losses[-1]
p1_wnl_winrate = p1_wins / max(1, len(wins_losses[p1]))
p2_wins_losses = Counter(wins_losses[p2])
p2_wins = p2_wins_losses[1]
p2_losses = p2_wins_losses[-1]
p2_wnl_winrate = p2_wins / max(1, len(wins_losses[p2]))
# outdoors
match_door = event['location']['outdoor']
p1_doors = Counter(doors[p1])
p1_doors_wins = p1_doors[match_door]
p1_doors_losses = p1_doors[-match_door]
p1_doors_winrate = p1_doors_wins / max(1, len(doors[p1]))
p2_doors = Counter(doors[p2])
p2_doors_wins = p2_doors[match_door]
p2_doors_losses = p2_doors[-match_door]
p2_doors_winrate = p2_doors_wins / max(1, len(doors[p2]))
# surface
match_surface = event['location']['surface']
p1_surface = Counter(surfaces[p1])
p1_surface_wins = p1_surface[match_surface]
p1_surface_losses = p1_surface[-match_surface]
p1_surface_winrate = p1_surface_wins / max(
1, p1_surface_wins + p1_surface_losses)
p2_surface = Counter(surfaces[p2])
p2_surface_wins = p2_surface[match_surface]
p2_surface_losses = p2_surface[-match_surface]
p2_surface_winrate = p2_surface_wins / max(
1, p2_surface_wins + p2_surface_losses)
# speed
match_speed = event['location']['speed']
p1_speed_prs = [(abs(v), 1 if v > 0 else -1) for v in speeds[p1]]
p1_speed_lin = linregress([v[0] for v in p1_speed_prs],
[v[1] for v in p1_speed_prs])
p2_speed_prs = [(abs(v), 1 if v > 0 else -1) for v in speeds[p2]]
p2_speed_lin = linregress([v[0] for v in p2_speed_prs],
[v[1] for v in p2_speed_prs])
# sets
p1_sets = Counter(sets[p1])
p1_sets_wins = p1_sets[1]
p1_sets_losses = p1_sets[-1]
p1_sets_winrate = p1_sets[1] / max(1, len(sets[p1]))
p2_sets = Counter(sets[p2])
p2_sets_wins = p2_sets[1]
p2_sets_losses = p2_sets[-1]
p2_sets_winrate = p2_sets[1] / max(1, len(sets[p2]))
# games
p1_gms_avg = np.average(games[p1])
p2_gms_avg = np.average(games[p2])
# ties
p1_ties = Counter(ties[p1])
p1_ties_wins = p1_ties[1]
p1_ties_losses = p1_ties[-1]
p1_ties_winrate = p1_ties[1] / max(1, len(ties[p1]))
p2_ties = Counter(ties[p2])
p2_ties_wins = p2_ties[1]
p2_ties_losses = p2_ties[-1]
p2_ties_winrate = p2_ties[1] / max(1, len(ties[p2]))
# last ties
p1_lati = Counter(last_ties[p1])
p1_lati_winrate = p1_lati[1] / max(1, len(last_ties[p1]))
p2_lati = Counter(last_ties[p2])
p2_lati_winrate = p2_lati[1] / max(1, len(last_ties[p2]))
# upsets
p1_upsets = Counter(upsets[p1])
p1_upsets_wins = p1_upsets[1]
p1_upsets_losses = p1_upsets[-1]
p1_upsets_win_avg = p1_upsets[1] / max(1, len(upsets[p1]))
p2_upsets = Counter(upsets[p2])
p2_upsets_wins = p2_upsets[1]
p2_upsets_losses = p2_upsets[-1]
p2_upsets_win_avg = p2_upsets[1] / max(1, len(upsets[p2]))
# age
p1_age = get_age_months(p1)
p2_age = get_age_months(p2)
#########################################
# update here as next sections can skip ahead
if 'score' in match:
# update ratings
ratings[p1], ratings[p2] = rate_1vs1(ratings[p1], ratings[p2])
# update wins losses
wins_losses[p1] += [1]
wins_losses[p2] += [-1]
# update sets
sets[p1] += [1 if v[0] > v[1] else -1 for v in match['score']]
sets[p2] += [1 if v[1] > v[0] else -1 for v in match['score']]
# update games
games[p1] += [sum(v[0] - v[1] for v in match['score'])]
games[p2] += [sum(v[1] - v[0] for v in match['score'])]
# update doors
doors[p1] += [match_door]
doors[p2] += [-match_door]
# update surface
surfaces[p1] += [match_surface]
surfaces[p2] += [-match_surface]
# update speeds
speeds[p1] += [match_speed]
speeds[p2] += [-match_speed]
# update ties
ties[p1] += [
1 if v[0] == 7 else -1 for v in match['score']
if 7 in v and 6 in v
]
ties[p2] += [
1 if v[1] == 7 else -1 for v in match['score']
if 7 in v and 6 in v
]
# update last ties
if match['score'] and 7 in match['score'][-1] and 6 in match[
'score'][-1]:
last_ties[p1].append(1 if match['score'][-1][0] ==
7 else -1)
last_ties[p2].append(1 if match['score'][-1][1] ==
7 else -1)
# update upsets
upset = p2_odds < p1_odds
upsets[p1] += [1 if upset else 0]
upsets[p2] += [-1 if upset else 0]
if train and random() > 0.80:
continue
matches += 1
log_odds = f'[{p1_odds:.2f} vs {p2_odds:.2f}]'
log_trueskill = f'[{p1_ts:.0f}.{p1_sigma:.0f} vs {p2_ts:.0f}.{p2_sigma:.0f}]'
###############################
# bet scaling
bet_multi = bet_multi_param
# trueskill mu
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
f_ts = p1_ts - p2_ts
else:
f_ts = p2_ts - p1_ts
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_ts_a, bet_ts_b], f_ts, 'ts')
# trueskill min
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
f_ts_min = p1_ts_min - p2_ts_min
else:
f_ts_min = p2_ts_min - p1_ts_min
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_tmi_a, bet_tmi_b], f_ts_min, 'tmi')
# trueskill max
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
f_ts_max = p1_ts_max - p2_ts_max
else:
f_ts_max = p2_ts_max - p1_ts_max
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_tma_a, bet_tma_b], f_ts_max, 'tma')
# wins and losses wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_wnlw = p1_wins - p2_wins
else:
p_wnlw = p2_wins - p1_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_wnlw_a, bet_wnlw_b], p_wnlw, 'wnlw')
# wins and losses lost
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_wnll = p2_losses - p1_losses
else:
p_wnll = p1_losses - p2_losses
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_wnll_a, bet_wnll_b], p_wnll, 'wnll')
# wins and losses winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_wnlr = p1_wnl_winrate - p2_wnl_winrate
else:
p_wnlr = p2_wnl_winrate - p1_wnl_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_wnlr_a, bet_wnlr_b], p_wnlr, 'wnlr')
# doors wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_drsw = p1_doors_wins - p2_doors_wins
else:
p_drsw = p2_doors_wins - p1_doors_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_drsw_a, bet_drsw_b], p_drsw, 'drsw')
# doors losses
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_drsl = p2_doors_losses - p1_doors_losses
else:
p_drsl = p1_doors_losses - p2_doors_losses
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_drsl_a, bet_drsl_b], p_drsl, 'drsl')
# doors winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_drs = p1_doors_winrate - p2_doors_winrate
else:
p_drs = p2_doors_winrate - p1_doors_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_drs_a, bet_drs_b], p_drs, 'drs')
# surface wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_sfcw = p1_surface_wins - p2_surface_wins
else:
p_sfcw = p2_surface_wins - p1_surface_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_sfcw_a, bet_sfcw_b], p_sfcw, 'sfcw')
# surface winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_sfcr = p1_surface_winrate - p2_surface_winrate
else:
p_sfcr = p2_surface_winrate - p1_surface_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_sfcr_a, bet_sfcr_b], p_sfcr, 'sfcr')
# speed
p1_speed = p1_speed_lin.intercept + p1_speed_lin.slope * match_speed
p2_speed = p2_speed_lin.intercept + p2_speed_lin.slope * match_speed
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_spd = p1_speed - p2_speed
else:
p_spd = p2_speed - p1_speed
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_spd_a, bet_spd_b], p_spd, 'spd')
# sets wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_setw = p1_sets_wins - p2_sets_wins
else:
p_setw = p2_sets_wins - p1_sets_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_setw_a, bet_setw_b], p_setw, 'setw')
# sets losses
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_setl = p2_sets_losses - p1_sets_losses
else:
p_setl = p1_sets_losses - p2_sets_losses
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_setl_a, bet_setl_b], p_setl, 'setl')
# sets winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_setr = p1_sets_winrate - p2_sets_winrate
else:
p_setr = p2_sets_winrate - p1_sets_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_setr_a, bet_setr_b], p_setr, 'setr')
# games
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_gms = p1_gms_avg - p2_gms_avg
else:
p_gms = p2_gms_avg - p1_gms_avg
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_gms_a, bet_gms_b], p_gms, 'gms')
# ties wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_tiew = p1_ties_wins - p2_ties_wins
else:
p_tiew = p2_ties_wins - p1_ties_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_tiew_a, bet_tiew_b], p_tiew, 'tiew')
# ties losses
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_tiel = p2_ties_losses - p1_ties_losses
else:
p_tiel = p1_ties_losses - p2_ties_losses
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_tiel_a, bet_tiel_b], p_tiel, 'tiel')
# ties winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_tier = p1_ties_winrate - p2_ties_winrate
else:
p_tier = p2_ties_winrate - p2_ties_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_tier_a, bet_tier_b], p_tier, 'tier')
# last ties winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_lati = p1_lati_winrate - p2_lati_winrate
else:
p_lati = p2_lati_winrate - p2_lati_winrate
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_lati_a, bet_lati_b], p_lati, 'lati')
# upsets wins
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_upsw = p1_upsets_wins - p2_upsets_wins
else:
p_upsw = p2_upsets_wins - p1_upsets_wins
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_upsw_a, bet_upsw_b], p_upsw, 'upsw')
# upsets losess
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_upsl = p2_upsets_losses - p1_upsets_losses
else:
p_upsl = p1_upsets_losses - p2_upsets_losses
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_upsl_a, bet_upsl_b], p_upsl, 'upsl')
# upsets winrate
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_upsr = p1_upsets_win_avg - p2_upsets_win_avg
else:
p_upsr = p2_upsets_win_avg - p1_upsets_win_avg
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_upsr_a, bet_upsr_b], p_upsr, 'upsr')
# age
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
p_age = p1_age - p2_age
else:
p_age = p2_age - p1_age
bet_multi = up_multi_bet(bet_multi, bet_multis_cat,
[bet_age_a, bet_age_b], p_age, 'age')
log_players = f'x{bet_multi:.0f} {p1} {match.get("score")} {p2}'
bet_amt = round(bet_size * bet_multi)
###############################
# make prediction
if 'prediction' in match and match['prediction'] is None:
# no positive bet and no favourite
if bet_amt < 1 or p1_odds == p2_odds:
logger.warning(
f'No bet! {p1} vs {p2} {log_odds} {log_trueskill}')
continue
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
w_odds = p1_odds
w = p1
l_odds = p2_odds
l = p2
else:
w_odds = p2_odds
w = p2
l_odds = p1_odds
l = p1
logger.warning(
f'[{w_odds:.2f} vs {l_odds:.2f}] Bet x{round(bet_multi):.0f} on {w} to beat {l} [{ratings[w].mu:.0f} vs {ratings[l].mu:.0f}]'
)
continue
# prediction bet on
if 'score' not in match:
logger.warning(f'Pending {p1} vs {p2}')
continue
if bet_amt < 1:
logger.info(f'no bet {log_players} {log_odds} {log_trueskill}')
continue
# testing outcome
payout = -bet_amt
if p1_odds < p2_odds:
payout += p1_odds * bet_amt
accuracy.append(1 if p1_odds < p2_odds else -1)
trueskill.append(1 if p1_ts > p2_ts else -1)
bet_amts.append(bet_amt)
bet_multis.append(bet_multi)
payouts.append(round(payout, 2))
log_balance = f'[{sum(payouts):.0f}|{payout:.0f}]'
# actual outcome
if 'bet' in match and 'score' in match:
is_actual_correct = match['prediction'] == p1
actual = (actual[0] + is_actual_correct, actual[1] + 1)
cash = -match['bet']
pred_odds = p2_odds
if is_actual_correct:
pred_odds = p1_odds
cash += p1_odds * match['bet']
tab.append(round(cash, 2))
tab_amts.append(match['bet'])
actual_debug.append(
f'${match["bet"]} {pred_odds:.2f}: {cash:.2f} {match["prediction"]} {event["location"]["name"]}:{match["round"]}'
)
logger.info(
f'{log_balance} {log_players} {log_odds} {log_trueskill}')
if train:
total_payouts = sum(payouts)
roi = total_payouts / max(1, sum(bet_amts))
participation = len(accuracy) / max(1, matches)
# res = roi + participation / 4 + total_payouts / 100000
res = roi * participation
print(
f'Score: {res * 100:.2f} ROI: {roi * 100:.1f}% Part: {participation * 100:.1f}% Profit: ${total_payouts:.0f} {[round(p, 1) for p in [bet_multi_param] + hyper_params]}'
)
return -res
else:
summary(accuracy, payouts, bet_amts, start_date, actual, tab, tab_amts,
bet_multis, bet_multis_cat, actual_debug, matches, trueskill)
def get_fairness(rating, url1, url2):
return quality_1vs1(rating[url1], rating[url2])
def index():
db = get_db()
players = db.execute('''
SELECT *
FROM player
WHERE active = 1
ORDER BY exposure DESC;''')
players = Ranking(players.fetchall(), start=1,
key=lambda x: x['exposure'])
aliases = db.execute('SELECT alias FROM player ORDER BY alias;')
recents = db.execute('''
SELECT w.alias, l.alias, winscore, losescore, scheduled
FROM match
JOIN player w ON winner = w.id
JOIN player l ON loser = l.id
ORDER BY date DESC LIMIT 10;''')
games = db.execute('SELECT COUNT(id) FROM match;').fetchone()
# get or regenerate the schedule
weekrow = db.execute('SELECT * FROM week;').fetchone();
week = datetime.now().isocalendar()[1]
if weekrow is None or weekrow['week'] != week:
db.execute('DELETE FROM schedule;')
db.execute('DELETE FROM week;')
db.execute('INSERT INTO week VALUES (?);', (week,))
players2 = db.execute('''
SELECT *
FROM player
WHERE active = 1
ORDER BY exposure DESC;''').fetchall()
match_offset = min((week % 5) + 1, len(players2)//2)
# shuffle bottom of ladder so players get new opponents
players2 = players2[:-match_offset] + shuffle(players2[-match_offset:])
while len(players2) > match_offset:
p1 = players2.pop(0)
p2 = players2.pop(match_offset)
matches.append((p1['id'], p2['id']))
while len(players) > 1:
p1 = players2.pop(0)
p2 = players2.pop(1)
matches.append((p1['id'], p2['id']))
db.executemany('''
INSERT INTO schedule (p1, p2)
VALUES (?, ?);''',
matches)
db.commit()
schedule = db.execute('''
SELECT p1.alias, p2.alias, p1.mu, p1.sigma, p2.mu, p2.sigma
FROM schedule
JOIN player p1 ON p1 = p1.id
JOIN player p2 ON p2 = p2.id;''').fetchall()
qualities = []
for match in schedule:
r1 = ts.Rating(match[2], match[3])
r2 = ts.Rating(match[4], match[5])
qualities.append(ts.quality_1vs1(r1, r2) * 100)
return render_template('index.html',
players=players, aliases=aliases, recents=recents, games = games[0],
schedule=zip(schedule, qualities), rankedweek=(week%2==1))
def generate_new_tasks(db_session, *, survey: Survey) -> None:
if survey.type == SurveyType.COMPARISON:
active_task_count = get_active_task_count(db_session, survey=survey)
existing_tasks = get_task_count(db_session, survey_id=survey.id)
chart_count = db_session\
.query(chart_survey_association)\
.filter(chart_survey_association.c.survey_id == survey.id)\
.count()
all_tasks = chart_count * survey.tasks_per_chart
tasks_to_add = min(500, all_tasks - existing_tasks) - active_task_count
if tasks_to_add < 100:
return
sub1 = db_session\
.query(
Task.chart1_id.label("chart_id"), func.count('*').label("task1_count")
)\
.filter(Task.survey_id == survey.id)\
.group_by(Task.chart1_id)\
.subquery()
sub2 = db_session\
.query(
Task.chart2_id.label("chart_id"), func.count('*').label("task2_count")
)\
.filter(Task.survey_id == survey.id)\
.group_by(Task.chart2_id)\
.subquery()
chart_task_count = db_session\
.query(
chart_survey_association.c.chart_id.label("chart_id"),
(func.coalesce(sub1.c.task1_count, 0) + func.coalesce(sub2.c.task2_count, 0)).label("task_count")
)\
.filter(chart_survey_association.c.survey_id == survey.id)\
.outerjoin(sub1, sub1.c.chart_id == chart_survey_association.c.chart_id)\
.outerjoin(sub2, sub2.c.chart_id == chart_survey_association.c.chart_id)\
.subquery()
charts = db_session\
.query(chart_task_count.c.chart_id.label("chart_id"))\
.filter(chart_task_count.c.task_count < survey.tasks_per_chart)\
.subquery()
current_tasks = db_session\
.query(
Task.chart1_id,
Task.chart2_id
)\
.filter(Task.survey_id == survey.id)\
.subquery()
chart1 = aliased(chart_survey_association)
chart2 = aliased(chart_survey_association)
task_candidates = db_session\
.query(
chart1.c.chart_id.label("chart1_id"),
chart1.c.sigma.label("sigma1"),
chart1.c.mu.label("mu1"),
chart2.c.chart_id.label("chart2_id"),
chart2.c.sigma.label("sigma2"),
chart2.c.mu.label("mu2"),
)\
.filter(chart1.c.chart_id < chart2.c.chart_id)\
.filter(tuple_(chart1.c.chart_id, chart2.c.chart_id).notin_(current_tasks))\
.filter(chart1.c.chart_id.in_(charts))\
.filter(chart2.c.chart_id.in_(charts))\
.order_by(text("RANDOM()"))\
.limit(1000)\
.all()
task_candidates = [t._asdict() for t in task_candidates]
task_candidates = [
(t["chart1_id"], t["chart2_id"],
trueskill.quality_1vs1(trueskill.Rating(t["sigma1"], t["mu1"]),
trueskill.Rating(t["sigma2"], t["mu2"])))
for t in task_candidates
]
selected_tasks = list(
sorted(task_candidates, key=lambda x: x[2],
reverse=True))[:tasks_to_add]
db_session.execute(Task.__table__.insert(), [{
"survey_id": survey.id,
"chart1_id": chart1_id,
"chart2_id": chart2_id
} for chart1_id, chart2_id, score in selected_tasks])
db_session.commit()
elif survey.type == SurveyType.SINGLE:
charts = db_session\
.query(chart_survey_association.c.chart_id.label("chart_id"))\
.filter(chart_survey_association.c.survey_id == survey.id)\
.subquery()
tasked_charts = db_session\
.query(Task.chart1_id)\
.filter(Task.survey_id == survey.id)\
.subquery
untasked_charts = db_session\
.query(charts.c.chart_id.label("chart1_id"), literal(survey.id).label("survey_id"))\
.filter(charts.c.chart_id.notin_(tasked_charts))\
.subquery()
db_session.execute(Task.__table__.insert().from_select(
["chart1_id", "survey_id"], untasked_charts))
db_session.commit()
else:
raise RuntimeError("Type of survey unknown")
from trueskill import Rating, quality_1vs1, rate_1vs1, quality, rate
alice, bob = Rating(25), Rating(30) # assign Alice and Bob's ratings
if quality_1vs1(alice, bob) < 0.50:
print('This match seems to be not so fair')
alice, bob = rate_1vs1(alice, bob) # update the ratings after the match
print('\n\nHey there')
r1 = Rating()
r2 = Rating()
print('{:.1%} chance to draw'.format(quality_1vs1(r1, r2)))
new_r1, new_r2 = rate_1vs1(r1, r2, drawn=True)
print(new_r1)
print(new_r2)
r1 = Rating() # 1P's skill
r2 = Rating() # 2P's skill
r3 = Rating() # 3P's skill
t1 = [r1] # Team A contains just 1P
t2 = [r2, r3] # Team B contains 2P and 3P
print('{:.1%} chance to draw'.format(quality([t1, t2])))
#13.5% chance to draw
(new_r1, ), (new_r2, new_r3) = rate([t1, t2], ranks=[0, 1])
print(new_r1)
#trueskill.Rating(mu=33.731, sigma=7.317)
print(new_r2)
#trueskill.Rating(mu=16.269, sigma=7.317)
