a pandemic tracking toolkit that:

1. runs a Bayesian update process to obtain a real time estimate of R_t

2. builds a graph of interactions between geographic units accounting for migratory (re-)introductions

3. at each t from t_i to t_f:

   • runs the standard SIRD forward epidemiological model

   • simulates a migration out of each state to all other states (used as introductions at time t+1)

4. (optionally) projects SIRD curves under various policy scenarios and epidemiological parameters

• adaptive - core package with model and estimator classes
• studies - specific applications to geographies for which we have data

• India base demographic data provided by Anand Sahasranaman (Krea)
• India migration data from Clement Imbert (Warwick)
• India administrative data labels from Sam Asher (JHU)
• Mumbai inter-ward travel from Vaidehi Tandel (IDFC)
• Mumbai ward shape files from Hindustan Times