Real Estate Market Model (REMM) 2.0

Purpose:

Every four years, the Wasatch Front’s two metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), Wasatch Front Regional Council (WFRC) and Mountainland Association of Governments (MAG), collaborate to update a set of annual traffic analysis zone and small area population and employment projections for the Salt Lake City-West Valley City (WFRC), Ogden-Layton (WFRC), and Provo-Orem (MAG) urbanized areas.

These projections are primarily developed for the purpose of informing long-range transportation infrastructure and services planning done as part of the four year Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) update cycle, as well as Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan, 2019-2050. Accordingly, the foundation for the most recent projections is largely data describing existing conditions for a 2015 base year, the first year of the latest RTP process. The projections are included in the official travel model, which are publicly released at the conclusion of the RTP process.

Introduction:

WFRC and MAG have developed a spatial statistical model using the UrbanSim modeling platform to assist in producing these annual projections. This model is called the Real Estate Market Model, or REMM for short. REMM is used for the developable urban portions of Weber, Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah counties.

While REMM models future development at the parcel level, the predicted demographic and employment count and distribution produced by REMM for each future year is used to inform WFRC and MAG’s forecasts at theTraffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. The combined Wasatch Front model space has over 2,800 TAZs, whose boundaries are set along roads, streams, and other physical features. WF TAZ geographic units average about 600 acres (0.94 square miles). TAZ sizes vary, with some TAZs in the densest areas representing only a single city block (25 acres).

References:
http://www.urbansim.com
Clay, Michael J. (submitted April 2018, under review) Infrastructure Alternatives Analysis with an Integrated Land Use and Transportation Forecasting Model. Journal of Urban, Planning and Transportation Research.