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Forex Net

Summary

I am working on this project to get a better understanding of neural nets. The goal is to create images from historical forex data and see if a net can find trends and make accurate predictions.

Workflow

Creating Images and Vectors

  • Launched an AWS instance to created the images and vectors.
  • Successfully implemented parallel processing to cut down on creation time (still took about 4 hours on a 40 core machine)
  • Created over 272,000 images and their corresponding vectors; each containing 5 ticks on an hourly scale from 2001 to 2015.

Building the Net

  • Transferred the vectors to a GPU AWS instance to begin training the net.
  • Altered the net framework from the cifar10_cnn Keras Net (this example utilizes RGB color)
  • Tried running the net as a classifier; predicting whether the market will go up, down, or stay the same in the next tick.
  • I am hoping that this will give me an indiction of whether this idea has any potential.

Working Classifier nets

  • Using 50x50px images; 5 ticks; close, high, and low data.
  • Using fill_between to add more content to each image.
  • Using a unique background color for each currency.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %50.01...
  • Using 50x50px images; 5 ticks; close, high, and low data.
  • Using fill_between to add more content to each image.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %50.0...
  • Using 50x50px images; 5 ticks; close, high, and low data.
  • Using fill_between to add more content to each image.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %48.9...
  • Using 40x40px images; 5 ticks; open, close, high, and low data.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %48...
  • Using 50x100px images; 10 ticks; open, close, high, and low data.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %48... Not much difference.
  • Using 50x50px images; 5 ticks; close data only.
  • Best validation accuracy is about %48... Again, not much difference...

Things to try

  • Only include images from prime trading hours.
  • Only graph closing ticks, or some other variety.
  • Change number of ticks being graphed.
  • Allow for overlap in ticks on each graph. Currently no graph data overlaps any other graph.

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