Exemplo n.º 1
0
    def predict(self, dates):
        if self.solution is None:
            raise ValueError('Solution is not present, must first call fit')

        # set the result to zero by default, points before the
        # first data point will remain zero

        result = np.zeros(len(dates))
        x = np.array([scale_date(date, self.timescale) for date in dates])

        # do the interpolation for the internal region
        interpolate_region = (x >= self.x_min) & (x <= self.x_max)
        result[interpolate_region] = self.interpolate(x[interpolate_region])

        # do the extrapolation beyond the last data point
        extrapolate_region = x > self.x_max
        x_extrap = x[extrapolate_region]
        dates_extrap = np.array(dates)[extrapolate_region]
        non_seasonal_extrap = np.array([self.extrapolate_without_seasonal(xx)
                                        for xx in x_extrap])

        seasonal_extrap = np.array([self.date_to_seasonal_component(d) for d in dates_extrap])

        extrapolated = non_seasonal_extrap + seasonal_extrap
        result[extrapolate_region] = extrapolated
        return result
Exemplo n.º 2
0
    def __init__(self, dates, y,
                 timescale=None,
                 seasonality_function=None,
                 params=None):
        """
        Instantiate and initialize the object
        :param dates: iterable of datetime.date or datetime.datetime objects
        :param y: iterable, the y-values for the time series
        :param timescale: sets the time scale for scaling dates to numbers
                          allows the regularization parameters to stay scale
                          independent
        :param seasonality_function: a function that maps dates to an index
               pertaining to seasonality variables (zero indexed)
               example: lambda date: date.month-1
        :param params: a dictionary of overrides for default parameters,
               mostly regularization parameters, see default_params
        :return: an object instance
        """

        if timescale is None:
            # timescale = (1, 'month')
            timescale = default_timescale(dates)

        self.dates = np.array(dates)
        self.y = np.array(y)
        # scale the dates to an index
        self.timescale = timescale
        self.x = np.array([scale_date(date, self.timescale) for date in dates])
        self.x_min = min(self.x)
        self.x_max = max(self.x)
        self.params = default_params()
        if seasonality_function is None:
            # does it make sense to have a default?
            # only with seasonality turned off
            seasonality_function = lambda the_date: the_date.month - 1
            # some largish number
            self.params['beta_seasonal'] = 13796.0

        self.seasonality_function = seasonality_function

        # calculate the seasonality matrix, this combined with the
        # index 'x' allows us to forget about dates and call the
        # date agnostic fit function

        mat, compress = get_seasonality_matrix(dates, seasonality_function)

        self.seasonality_matrix = mat
        self.compression_dict = compress
        self.solution = None
        self.slope = None
        self.offset = None
        self.seasonal = None

        # dummy functions for now, replace after fit
        self.interpolate = lambda x: None
        self.extrapolate_without_seasonal = lambda x: None
        self.date_to_seasonal_component = lambda x: None

        if params is not None:
            # override any parameters handed in with
            # params dictionary
            for key, value in params.items():
                self.params[key] = value