An Analysis of Joe Biden's Tax Proposals

Project Git Repo: https://github.com/grantseiter/Biden-Tax-Proposals/

Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate for president, has proposed several individual income, payroll, estate, and business tax increases aimed at financing new government programs and tax credits. Using the Tax-Calculator (3.0.0) microsimulation model, we estimate that Joe Biden’s proposals would raise federal revenue by $2.8 trillion over the next decade (2021–30). The majority of new federal revenue would come from businesses and corporations ($1.9 trillion). The remaining revenue would come from individual income and payroll tax increases ($616.8 billion) and an increase in estate and gift taxes ($276.4 billion). In 2021, Biden’s proposals would increase taxes, on average, for the top 5 percent of households and reduce taxes on households in the bottom 95 percent. In 2030, Biden’s proposals would increase taxes, on average, for households at every income level, but tax increases would primarily fall on the top 1 percent of income earners. Using the open-source OG-USA (0.6.2) model, we estimate that Biden’s proposals would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.16 percent over the next decade, slightly increase GDP the second decade (0.19 percent), and result in a small reduction in GDP in the long run (0.18 percent).

Python

• Kyle Pomerleau - American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Washington, D.C.
  • Kyle Pomerleau is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies federal tax policy. He writes on various tax policy topics, including corporate taxation, international tax policy, carbon taxation, and tax reform.
• Grant M. Seiter - American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Washington, D.C.
  • Grant M. Seiter is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

This repository contains code and data used in a study on the revenue effects of Joe Biden’s tax proposals.

“An analysis of Joe Biden’s tax proposals, October 2020 update,” Kyle Pomerleau and Grant M. Seiter, AEI Report, American Enterprise Institute (October 13, 2020).

Disclaimer: The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s).