def current_series(year, timestamp):
print '\tdetermining current series probabilities'
games_query = "SELECT IFNULL(SUM(IF(winning_team IS NOT NULL,1,0)),0) FROM __in_playoff_game_results WHERE year = %s;" % (
year)
total_playoff_games_played = db.query(games_query)[0][0]
qry = """SELECT
series_id, year, strength_type,
team, opponent,
series_wins, series_losses
FROM __in_playoff_bracket
WHERE update_time = (SELECT MAX(update_time) FROM __in_playoff_bracket)
AND year = %s;"""
query = qry % (year)
res = db.query(query)
for row in res:
series_id, year, strength_type, team, opponent, series_wins, series_losses = row
series_type = series_id.replace('AL', '').replace('NL', '')[:2]
games_dict = {'WC': 1, 'DS': 5, 'CS': 7, 'WS': 7}
series_games = games_dict.get(series_type)
team_abb = helper.get_team_abb(team, year)
oppn_abb = helper.get_team_abb(opponent, year)
team_winProb = get_single_game_win_prob(team_abb, oppn_abb,
strength_type, year)
entry = {
'update_time': timestamp,
'series_id': series_id,
'year': year,
'team': team,
'opponent': opponent,
'series_wins': series_wins,
'series_losses': series_losses,
'strength_type': strength_type,
'team_winProb': team_winProb,
'total_playoff_games_played': total_playoff_games_played
}
team_probs = []
if series_wins == series_games / 2 + 1:
team_probs.append(1)
total_games = series_wins + series_losses
if total_games > 2:
colName = 'team_in' + str(total_games)
entry[colName] = 1
if series_losses == series_games / 2 + 1:
team_probs.append(0)
if (series_wins != series_games / 2 + 1
and series_losses != series_games / 2 + 1):
for end_game in range(series_games / 2 + 1,
series_games + 1 - series_losses):
team_in_N = BinomDist.pmf(n=end_game - 1 - series_wins,
k=(series_games / 2 - series_wins),
p=team_winProb) * team_winProb
col_name = 'team_in' + str(end_game + series_losses)
team_probs.append(team_in_N)
if end_game > 2:
entry[col_name] = team_in_N
entry['team_seriesProb'] = sum(team_probs)
db.insertRowDict(entry,
'__in_playoff_bracket',
insertMany=False,
replace=True,
rid=0,
debug=1)
db.conn.commit()
def get_optimal_lineups(year, season_gp):
optimal_query = """SELECT team_abb,
starter_val, bullpen_val,
l.lineup_val AS lineup_vsL, r.lineup_val AS lineup_vsR,
total_val + 0.25*(l.lineup_val) + 0.75*(r.lineup_val) AS roster_WAR,
starter_var, bullpen_var,
l.lineup_var AS vsL_var, r.lineup_var AS vsR_var,
total_var + 0.25*l.lineup_var + 0.75*r.lineup_var AS roster_var
FROM __optimal_pitching p
JOIN __optimal_lineups l USING (team_abb)
JOIN __optimal_lineups r USING (team_abb)
WHERE l.vs_hand = 'l'
AND r.vs_hand = 'r'
AND l.dh_name IS NOT NULL
AND r.dh_name IS NOT NULL
ORDER BY team_abb ASC;"""
total_roster_war_query = """SELECT
SUM(p.total_val + 0.25*(l.lineup_val) + 0.75*(r.lineup_val)) AS roster_WAR
FROM __optimal_pitching p
JOIN __optimal_lineups l USING (team_abb)
JOIN __optimal_lineups r USING (team_abb)
WHERE l.vs_hand = 'l'
AND r.vs_hand = 'r'
AND l.dh_name IS NOT NULL
AND r.dh_name IS NOT NULL;"""
# should be around ~1000
total_roster_war = db.query(total_roster_war_query)[0][0]
# should be around 48 (48-114 replacement level?)
replacement_team_wins = (2430-float(total_roster_war))/30
# should be around .300
rep_team_win_pct = float(replacement_team_wins)/162
optimal_res = db.query(optimal_query)
for row in optimal_res:
entry = {}
team_abb, starter_val, bullpen_val, lu_vsL, lu_vsR, roster_WAR, starter_var, bullpen_var, vsL_var, vsR_var, roster_var = row
mascot_name = helper.get_mascot_names(team_abb.upper(), year)
team_name, games_played, rep_WAR, oWAR, dWAR, FIP_WAR, W, L, py_W, py_L = get_standing_metrics(year, mascot_name)
team_abb = helper.get_team_abb(team_name, year)
# mascot_name = helper.get_mascot_names(team_abb.upper(), year-1)
# team_name, games_played, rep_WAR, oWAR, dWAR, FIP_WAR, W, L, py_W, py_L = get_standing_metrics(year, mascot_name)
# team_abb = helper.get_team_abb(team_name, year-1)
games_played = float(games_played)
if games_played > 162.0:
roster_W = float(roster_WAR) + rep_team_win_pct*games_played
roster_pct = roster_W/games_played
ros_g = 0
else:
roster_W = float(roster_WAR) + rep_team_win_pct*162
roster_pct = roster_W/162.0
ros_g = 162-games_played
try:
w_pct = float(W)/float(W+L)
py_pct = float(py_W)/float(py_W+py_L)
except ZeroDivisionError:
w_pct = 0.5
py_pct = 0.5
# logistic weights for pythag% and win&
# rest of season projected win% = (1-2w)*(roster%) + w(pythag%) + w(win%)
# where w = (0.25) / (1+20e^(-0.035*games_played))
if games_played <= 10:
current_weight = 0.0015*float(games_played)
else:
current_weight = 0.25 / (1 + 20*math.exp(-0.035*float(games_played)))
ros_pct = (1-2*current_weight)*roster_pct + (current_weight)*max(py_pct, 0.25) + (current_weight)*max(w_pct, 0.25)
ros_W = ros_pct*ros_g
# for the total amount of variance for the team, we first take the total amount of variance from team projections (based on the variance in each individual player's projection)
total_roster_var = float(roster_var)
# then we add a measure of variance based on the difference between true talent record (pythag record) and observed record (see /variance_research/Full Season Pythag Standings std research.png)
total_roster_var += -0.0055021865*(ros_pct*162) + 3.4706743014
# Finally we add a value of 5.0 to the STANDARD DEVIATION (not variance). We can express the amount of variance desired to add in the set of equations {std = sqrt(v), std+5.0 = sqrt(v+c)}, and then solving for c (https://tinyurl.com/y8tk64ez)
# NB. the value of 5.0 is a guess (~0.33 win for each starter plus a small amount for bench players and relief pitchers) and hack-y and should be cleaned up, or at least weighted more towards defensive #s over wOBA numbers) wins to the variance due to my uncertain nature (mostly from defense) of my conversion from raw ZiPS to DMB WAR (i.e., I think if my projection says the team is a true talent 90 win team, I think there is +/- 5.0 wins of standard deviation in that projection)
total_roster_var += 10*math.sqrt(total_roster_var) + 25
projected_W = W + ros_W
if games_played > 162.0:
roster_L = games_played - roster_W
projected_L = games_played - projected_W
projected_pct = projected_W/games_played
else:
roster_L = 162.0 - roster_W
projected_L = 162.0 - projected_W
projected_pct = projected_W/162.0
entry['team_abb'] = team_abb
entry['team_name'] = team_name
entry['year'] = year
entry['season_gp'] = season_gp
entry['games_played'] = games_played
entry['starter_val'] = starter_val
entry['bullpen_val'] = bullpen_val
entry['vsR_val'] = lu_vsR
entry['vsL_val'] = lu_vsL
entry['roster_strength'] = roster_WAR
entry['starter_var'] = starter_var
entry['bullpen_var'] = bullpen_var
entry['vsR_var'] = vsR_var
entry['vsL_var'] = vsL_var
entry['roster_var'] = roster_var
entry['overall_var'] = total_roster_var
entry['roster_W'] = roster_W
entry['roster_L'] = roster_L
entry['roster_pct'] = roster_pct
entry['current_W'] = W
entry['current_L'] = L
entry['current_pct'] = w_pct
entry['ros_W'] = ros_W
entry['ros_L'] = ros_g - ros_W
entry['ros_pct'] = ros_pct
entry['projected_W'] = projected_W
entry['projected_L'] = projected_L
entry['projected_pct'] = projected_pct
# raw_input(entry)
db.insertRowDict(entry, '__team_strength', insertMany=False, replace=True, rid=0,debug=1)
db.conn.commit()
