def testDraw3(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','FTHG','FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={'FTHG': 'HomeGoals', 'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'})
results_data = pd.concat([results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={'HomeTeam':'team', 'AwayTeam':'opponent','HomeGoals':'goals'}), results[['AwayTeam','HomeTeam','AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={'AwayTeam':'team', 'HomeTeam':'opponent','AwayGoals':'goals'})])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent", data=results_data, family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
sou_mid = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Southampton", "Middlesbrough")
sou_hull = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Southampton", "Hull")
sou_burn = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Southampton", "Burnley")
awaywin = (np.sum(np.triu(sou_mid, -1)) + np.sum(np.triu(sou_hull, -1)) + np.sum(np.triu(sou_burn, -1)))/3
draw = (np.sum(np.diag(sou_mid)) + np.sum(np.diag(sou_hull)) + np.sum(np.diag(sou_burn)))/3
self.assertGreater(awaywin, draw)
def testManCLiv(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam', 'FTHG', 'FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={
'FTHG': 'HomeGoals',
'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'
})
results_data = pd.concat([
results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam',
'HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={
'HomeTeam': 'team',
'AwayTeam': 'opponent',
'HomeGoals': 'goals'
}),
results[['AwayTeam', 'HomeTeam',
'AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={
'AwayTeam': 'team',
'HomeTeam': 'opponent',
'AwayGoals': 'goals'
})
])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent",
data=results_data,
family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
manc_lfc = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Man City", "Liverpool")
homewin = np.sum(np.tril(manc_lfc, -1))
awaywin = np.sum(np.triu(manc_lfc, 1))
self.assertGreater(homewin, awaywin)
def testSpursArs(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam', 'FTHG', 'FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={
'FTHG': 'HomeGoals',
'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'
})
results_data = pd.concat([
results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam',
'HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={
'HomeTeam': 'team',
'AwayTeam': 'opponent',
'HomeGoals': 'goals'
}),
results[['AwayTeam', 'HomeTeam',
'AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={
'AwayTeam': 'team',
'HomeTeam': 'opponent',
'AwayGoals': 'goals'
})
])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent",
data=results_data,
family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
spurs_ars = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Tottenham", "Arsenal")
homewin = np.sum(np.tril(spurs_ars, -1))
awaywin = np.sum(np.triu(spurs_ars, 1))
self.assertGreater(homewin, awaywin)
def testEverChel(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam', 'FTHG', 'FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={
'FTHG': 'HomeGoals',
'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'
})
results_data = pd.concat([
results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam',
'HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={
'HomeTeam': 'team',
'AwayTeam': 'opponent',
'HomeGoals': 'goals'
}),
results[['AwayTeam', 'HomeTeam',
'AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={
'AwayTeam': 'team',
'HomeTeam': 'opponent',
'AwayGoals': 'goals'
})
])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent",
data=results_data,
family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
eve_chel = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Everton", "Chelsea")
homewin = np.sum(np.tril(eve_chel, -1))
awaywin = np.sum(np.triu(eve_chel, 1))
self.assertLess(homewin, awaywin)
def testHomeWin3(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','FTHG','FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={'FTHG': 'HomeGoals', 'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'})
results_data = pd.concat([results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={'HomeTeam':'team', 'AwayTeam':'opponent','HomeGoals':'goals'}), results[['AwayTeam','HomeTeam','AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={'AwayTeam':'team', 'HomeTeam':'opponent','AwayGoals':'goals'})])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent", data=results_data, family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
mid_lec = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Middlesbrough", "Leicester")
hull_lec = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Hull", "Leicester")
burn_lec = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Burnley", "Leicester")
homewin = (np.sum(np.tril(mid_lec, -1)) + np.sum(np.tril(hull_lec, -1)) + np.sum(np.tril(burn_lec, -1)))/3
awaywin = (np.sum(np.triu(mid_lec, 1)) + np.sum(np.triu(hull_lec, 1)) + np.sum(np.triu(burn_lec, 1)))/3
self.assertLess(homewin, awaywin)
def testAwayLoss2(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','FTHG','FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={'FTHG': 'HomeGoals', 'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'})
results_data = pd.concat([results[['HomeTeam','AwayTeam','HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={'HomeTeam':'team', 'AwayTeam':'opponent','HomeGoals':'goals'}), results[['AwayTeam','HomeTeam','AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={'AwayTeam':'team', 'HomeTeam':'opponent','AwayGoals':'goals'})])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent", data=results_data, family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
lec_mid = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Leicester", "Middlesbrough")
lec_hull = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Leicester", "Hull")
lec_burn = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Leicester", "Burnley")
homewin = (np.sum(np.tril(lec_mid, -1)) + np.sum(np.tril(lec_hull, -1)) + np.sum(np.tril(lec_burn, -1)))/3
awaywin = (np.sum(np.triu(lec_mid, 1)) + np.sum(np.triu(lec_hull, 1)) + np.sum(np.triu(lec_burn, 1)))/3
self.assertGreater(homewin, awaywin)
def test3(self):
results = pd.read_csv("../Data/results.csv")
results = results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam', 'FTHG', 'FTAG']]
results = results.rename(columns={
'FTHG': 'HomeGoals',
'FTAG': 'AwayGoals'
})
results_data = pd.concat([
results[['HomeTeam', 'AwayTeam',
'HomeGoals']].assign(home=1).rename(columns={
'HomeTeam': 'team',
'AwayTeam': 'opponent',
'HomeGoals': 'goals'
}),
results[['AwayTeam', 'HomeTeam',
'AwayGoals']].assign(home=0).rename(columns={
'AwayTeam': 'team',
'HomeTeam': 'opponent',
'AwayGoals': 'goals'
})
])
poisson_model = smf.glm(formula="goals ~ home + team + opponent",
data=results_data,
family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
lfc_lei = simulate_match(poisson_model, "Liverpool", "Leicester")
homewin = np.sum(np.tril(lfc_lei, -1))
homeloss = np.sum(np.triu(lfc_lei, 1))
homedraw = np.sum(np.diag(lfc_lei))
total = np.ceil(homeloss + homewin + homedraw)
self.assertNotEqual(0.5, total)