def test_beta(self):
timestamps = np.array([
'2021-02-16T00:00:00.000000000', '2021-02-17T00:00:00.000000000',
'2021-02-18T00:00:00.000000000', '2021-02-19T00:00:00.000000000'
],
dtype='datetime64[ns]')
index_prices = 100 * np.exp(
[0., 0.02, 0.02 + 0.01, 0.02 + 0.01 - 0.015])
stock_prices = 10 * np.exp([0., 0.04, 0.04 + 0.02, 0.04 + 0.02 - 0.03])
beta = risk.estimate_beta(timestamps, stock_prices, index_prices)
self.assertAlmostEqual(beta, 2.0)
'with' if with_dividends else 'without'))
for symbol, nbshares in optimized_dynport.symbols_nbshares.items():
print('{}: {}'.format(symbol, nbshares))
# further imformation
print('reward function: {}'.format(rewardfcn(optimized_dynport)))
df = optimized_dynport.get_portfolio_values_overtime(startdate,
enddate,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
# df['TimeStamp'] = df['TimeStamp'].map(lambda item: datetime.strftime(item, '%Y-%m-%d'))
indexdf = get_yahoofinance_data(indexsymbol,
startdate,
enddate,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
indexdf['TimeStamp'] = indexdf['TimeStamp'].map(
lambda item: datetime.strftime(item, '%Y-%m-%d'))
indexdf.index = list(indexdf['TimeStamp'])
df = df.join(indexdf, on='TimeStamp', how='left', rsuffix='2')
df['Close'] = df['Close'].ffill()
timestamps = np.array(df['TimeStamp'], dtype='datetime64[s]')
prices = np.array(df['value'])
r, sigma = fit_BlackScholesMerton_model(timestamps, prices)
print('Yield: {}'.format(r))
print('Volatility: {}'.format(sigma))
downside_risk = estimate_downside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
print('Downside risk: {}'.format(downside_risk))
upside_risk = estimate_upside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
print('Upside risk: {}'.format(upside_risk))
beta = estimate_beta(timestamps, prices, np.array(df['Close']))
print('Beta (relative to {}): {}'.format(indexsymbol, beta))
def simulated_annealing_handler(event, context):
# parsing argument
query = event['body']
startdate = query['startdate']
enddate = query['enddate']
maxval = query['maxval']
symbols = query['symbols']
nbsteps = query.get('nbsteps', 10000)
init_temperature = query.get('init_temperature', 1000.)
decfactor = query.get('decfactor', 0.75)
temperaturechange_step = query.get('temperaturechange_step', 100)
with_dividends = query.get('with_dividends', True)
lambda1 = query.get('lambda1', 0.3)
lambda2 = query.get('lambda2', 0.01)
lambda3 = query.get('lambda3', 0.0)
indexsymbol = query.get('index', 'DJI')
call_wrapper = False
if 'email' in query:
assert 'sender_email' in query
assert 'filebasename' in query
call_wrapper = True
# making caching directory
cacheddir = '/tmp/cacheddir'
logging.info('Portfolio Optimization Using Simulated Annealing')
logging.info('Symbols: {}'.format(', '.join(symbols)))
logging.info('Start date: {}'.format(startdate))
logging.info('End date: {}'.format(enddate))
logging.info('Maximum value of the portfolio: {}'.format(maxval))
logging.info('Number of steps: {}'.format(nbsteps))
logging.info('Initial temperature: {} (decreased every {} steps)'.format(
init_temperature, temperaturechange_step))
logging.info('Consider dividends? {}'.format(with_dividends))
logging.info('Cached directory: {}'.format(cacheddir))
logging.info('lambda1: {}'.format(lambda1))
logging.info('lambda2: {}'.format(lambda2))
logging.info('lambda3: {}'.format(lambda3))
logging.info('indexsymbol: {}'.format(indexsymbol))
# initializing the porfolio
dynport = DynamicPortfolioWithDividends({symbol: 1
for symbol in symbols},
startdate,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
dynport.move_cursor_to_date(enddate)
current_val = dynport.get_portfolio_value(enddate)
if current_val > maxval:
return {
'statusCode':
400,
'body':
json.dumps(
'Too many symbols (or maximum portfolio value too small). Value ({}) > maxval ({})'
.format(current_val, maxval))
}
# simulated annealing
starttime = time.time()
rewardfcn = partial(rewards,
startdate=startdate,
enddate=enddate,
maxval=maxval,
lambda1=lambda1,
lambda2=lambda2,
lambda3=lambda3,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
optimized_dynport = simulated_annealing(
dynport,
rewardfcn,
maxval,
initT=init_temperature,
factor=0.75,
nbsteps=nbsteps,
temperaturechangestep=temperaturechange_step,
with_dividends=True)
endtime = time.time()
logging.info('final reward function: {}'.format(
rewardfcn(optimized_dynport)))
df = optimized_dynport.get_portfolio_values_overtime(startdate,
enddate,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
indexdf = get_yahoofinance_data(indexsymbol,
startdate,
enddate,
cacheddir=cacheddir)
indexdf['TimeStamp'] = indexdf['TimeStamp'].map(
lambda item: datetime.strftime(item, '%Y-%m-%d'))
indexdf.index = list(indexdf['TimeStamp'])
df = df.join(indexdf, on='TimeStamp', how='left', rsuffix='2')
df['Close'] = df['Close'].ffill()
timestamps = np.array(df['TimeStamp'], dtype='datetime64[s]')
prices = np.array(df['value'])
r, sigma = fit_BlackScholesMerton_model(timestamps, prices)
downside_risk = estimate_downside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
upside_risk = estimate_upside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
beta = estimate_beta(timestamps, prices, np.array(df['Close']))
result = {
'r': r,
'sigma': sigma,
'downside_risk': downside_risk,
'upside_risk': upside_risk,
'beta': beta,
'portfolio': optimized_dynport.generate_dynamic_portfolio_dict(),
'runtime': endtime - starttime
}
if call_wrapper:
lambda_client = boto3.client('lambda')
lambda_client.invoke(
FunctionName=
'arn:aws:lambda:us-east-1:409029738116:function:portfolio-simulated-annealing-wrapper',
InvocationType='Event',
Payload=json.dumps(
{'body': json.dumps({
'query': query,
'result': result
})}))
return {'statusCode': 200, 'body': json.dumps(result)}
def symbol_handler(event, context):
# getting info
logging.info(event)
logging.info(context)
query = json.loads(event['body'])
# getting user inputs
symbol = query['symbol']
startdate = query['startdate']
enddate = query['enddate']
waittime = query.get('waittime', 1)
index = query.get('index', 'DJI') # DJI index as the base.
# getting stock data
symdf = waiting_get_yahoofinance_data(symbol,
startdate,
enddate,
waittime=waittime)
# getting index
indexdf = waiting_get_yahoofinance_data(index,
startdate,
enddate,
waittime=waittime)
# estimation
isrownull = symdf['Close'].isnull()
r, sigma = fit_BlackScholesMerton_model(
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'TimeStamp']),
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'Close']))
downside_risk = estimate_downside_risk(
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'TimeStamp']),
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'Close']), 0.0)
upside_risk = estimate_upside_risk(
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'TimeStamp']),
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'Close']), 0.0)
try:
beta = estimate_beta(
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'TimeStamp']),
np.array(symdf.loc[~isrownull, 'Close']),
np.array(indexdf.loc[~isrownull, 'Close']),
)
except:
logging.warning('Index {} failed to be integrated.'.format(index))
beta = None
estimations = {
'symbol': symbol,
'r': float(r),
'vol': float(sigma),
'downside_risk': float(downside_risk),
'upside_risk': float(upside_risk),
'beta': float(beta) if beta is not None else None,
'data_startdate': symdf['TimeStamp'][0].date().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
'data_enddate': symdf['TimeStamp'][-1].date().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
'nbrecs': len(symdf.loc[~isrownull, :]),
}
req_res = {
'isBase64Encoded': False,
'statusCode': 200,
# 'headers': {'Content-Type': 'application/json'},
'body': json.dumps(estimations)
}
return req_res
def portfolio_handler(event, context):
# getting query
query = event['body']
# getting parameter
rf = query['rf']
symbols = query['symbols']
totalworth = query['totalworth']
presetdate = query['presetdate']
estimating_startdate = query['estimating_startdate']
estimating_enddate = query['estimating_enddate']
riskcoef = query.get('riskcoef', 0.3)
homogencoef = query.get('homogencoef', 0.1)
V = query.get('V', 10.0)
index = query.get('index', 'DJI')
call_wrapper = False
if 'email' in query:
assert 'sender_email' in query
assert 'filebasename' in query
call_wrapper = True
print('call wrapper? {}'.format(call_wrapper))
query['riskcoef'] = riskcoef
query['homogencoef'] = homogencoef
logging.info('Portfolio Optimization Using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)')
logging.info('Symbols: {}'.format(', '.join(symbols)))
logging.info('Total worth: {:.2f}'.format(totalworth))
logging.info('Date: {}'.format(presetdate))
logging.info('Estimating start date: {}'.format(estimating_startdate))
logging.info('Estimating end date: {}'.format(estimating_enddate))
logging.info('Risk coefficient: {}'.format(riskcoef))
logging.info('Homogeneity coefficient: {}'.format(homogencoef))
logging.info('V: {}'.format(V))
# Optimization
starttime = time.time()
optimized_portfolio = get_optimized_portfolio_on_mpt_entropy_costfunction(
rf,
symbols,
totalworth,
presetdate,
estimating_startdate,
estimating_enddate,
riskcoef,
homogencoef,
V=V,
lazy=False)
endtime = time.time()
portfolio_summary = optimized_portfolio.portfolio_summary
corr = portfolio_summary['correlation']
portfolio_summary['correlation'] = [[
corr[i, j] for j in range(corr.shape[1])
] for i in range(corr.shape[0])]
event['portfolio'] = portfolio_summary
event['symbols_nbshares'] = optimized_portfolio.symbols_nbshares
event['runtime'] = endtime - starttime
# calculate dynamic portfolio
dynport = DynamicPortfolioWithDividends(
optimized_portfolio.symbols_nbshares, estimating_startdate)
df = dynport.get_portfolio_values_overtime(estimating_startdate,
estimating_enddate)
indexdf = get_yahoofinance_data(index, estimating_startdate,
estimating_enddate)
indexdf['TimeStamp'] = indexdf['TimeStamp'].map(
lambda item: datetime.strftime(item, '%Y-%m-%d'))
indexdf.index = list(indexdf['TimeStamp'])
df = df.join(indexdf, on='TimeStamp', how='left', rsuffix='2')
df['Close'] = df['Close'].ffill()
timestamps = np.array(df['TimeStamp'], dtype='datetime64[s]')
prices = np.array(df['value'])
r, sigma = fit_BlackScholesMerton_model(timestamps, prices)
downside_risk = estimate_downside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
upside_risk = estimate_upside_risk(timestamps, prices, 0.)
beta = estimate_beta(timestamps, prices, np.array(df['Close']))
event['estimates'] = {
'r': float(r),
'sigma': float(sigma),
'downside_risk': float(downside_risk),
'upside_risk': float(upside_risk),
'beta': float(beta) if beta is not None else None
}
if call_wrapper:
print('Sending e-mail')
lambda_client = boto3.client('lambda')
lambda_client.invoke(
FunctionName=
'arn:aws:lambda:us-east-1:409029738116:function:financial-portfolio-mpt-wrapper',
InvocationType='Event',
Payload=json.dumps({
'body':
json.dumps({
'query': query,
'result': {
'portfolio': event['portfolio'],
'symbols_nbshares': event['symbols_nbshares'],
'runtime': event['runtime']
},
'estimates': {
'r': float(r),
'sigma': float(sigma),
'downside_risk': float(downside_risk),
'upside_risk': float(upside_risk),
'beta': float(beta) if beta is not None else None
}
})
}))
# reference of a lambda output to API gateway: https://docs.aws.amazon.com/apigateway/latest/developerguide/set-up-lambda-proxy-integrations.html#api-gateway-simple-proxy-for-lambda-output-format
req_res = {
'isBase64Encoded': False,
'statusCode': 200,
# 'headers': {'Content-Type': 'application/json'},
'body': json.dumps(event)
}
return req_res