def test_AR():
# AR1
data = np.array([0.3, 1, 2, 3, 4])
phi = np.array([0.99])
with Model() as t:
y = AR("y", phi, sigma=1, shape=len(data))
z = Normal("z", mu=phi * data[:-1], sigma=1, shape=len(data) - 1)
ar_like = t["y"].logp({"z": data[1:], "y": data})
reg_like = t["z"].logp({"z": data[1:], "y": data})
np.testing.assert_allclose(ar_like, reg_like)
# AR1 and AR(1)
with Model() as t:
rho = Normal("rho", 0.0, 1.0)
y1 = AR1("y1", rho, 1.0, observed=data)
y2 = AR("y2", rho, 1.0, init=Normal.dist(0, 1), observed=data)
np.testing.assert_allclose(y1.logp(t.initial_point), y2.logp(t.initial_point))
# AR1 + constant
with Model() as t:
y = AR("y", np.hstack((0.3, phi)), sigma=1, shape=len(data), constant=True)
z = Normal("z", mu=0.3 + phi * data[:-1], sigma=1, shape=len(data) - 1)
ar_like = t["y"].logp({"z": data[1:], "y": data})
reg_like = t["z"].logp({"z": data[1:], "y": data})
np.testing.assert_allclose(ar_like, reg_like)
# AR2
phi = np.array([0.84, 0.10])
with Model() as t:
y = AR("y", phi, sigma=1, shape=len(data))
z = Normal("z", mu=phi[0] * data[1:-1] + phi[1] * data[:-2], sigma=1, shape=len(data) - 2)
ar_like = t["y"].logp({"z": data[2:], "y": data})
reg_like = t["z"].logp({"z": data[2:], "y": data})
np.testing.assert_allclose(ar_like, reg_like)
def logp(self, value):
"""
Calculate log-probability of AR distribution at specified value.
Parameters
----------
value: numeric
Value for which log-probability is calculated.
Returns
-------
TensorVariable
"""
if self.constant:
x = at.add(*[
self.rho[i + 1] * value[self.p - (i + 1):-(i + 1)]
for i in range(self.p)
])
eps = value[self.p:] - self.rho[0] - x
else:
if self.p == 1:
x = self.rho * value[:-1]
else:
x = at.add(*[
self.rho[i] * value[self.p - (i + 1):-(i + 1)]
for i in range(self.p)
])
eps = value[self.p:] - x
innov_like = Normal.dist(mu=0.0, tau=self.tau).logp(eps)
init_like = self.init.logp(value[:self.p])
return at.sum(innov_like) + at.sum(init_like)
def __init__(self, w, mu, sigma=None, tau=None, sd=None, comp_shape=(), *args, **kwargs):
if sd is not None:
sigma = sd
_, sigma = get_tau_sigma(tau=tau, sigma=sigma)
self.mu = mu = at.as_tensor_variable(mu)
self.sigma = self.sd = sigma = at.as_tensor_variable(sigma)
super().__init__(w, Normal.dist(mu, sigma=sigma, shape=comp_shape), *args, **kwargs)
def __init__(self, w, mu, sigma=None, tau=None, sd=None, comp_shape=(), *args, **kwargs):
if sd is not None:
sigma = sd
warnings.warn("sd is deprecated, use sigma instead", DeprecationWarning)
_, sigma = get_tau_sigma(tau=tau, sigma=sigma)
self.mu = mu = tt.as_tensor_variable(mu)
self.sigma = self.sd = sigma = tt.as_tensor_variable(sigma)
super().__init__(w, Normal.dist(mu, sigma=sigma, shape=comp_shape), *args, **kwargs)
def test_logpt_subtensor():
"""Make sure we can compute a log-likelihood for ``Y[I]`` where ``Y`` and ``I`` are random variables."""
size = 5
mu_base = floatX(np.power(10, np.arange(np.prod(size)))).reshape(size)
mu = np.stack([mu_base, -mu_base])
sigma = 0.001
rng = aesara.shared(np.random.RandomState(232), borrow=True)
A_rv = Normal.dist(mu, sigma, rng=rng)
A_rv.name = "A"
p = 0.5
I_rv = Bernoulli.dist(p, size=size, rng=rng)
I_rv.name = "I"
A_idx = A_rv[I_rv, at.ogrid[A_rv.shape[-1]:]]
assert isinstance(A_idx.owner.op,
(Subtensor, AdvancedSubtensor, AdvancedSubtensor1))
A_idx_value_var = A_idx.type()
A_idx_value_var.name = "A_idx_value"
I_value_var = I_rv.type()
I_value_var.name = "I_value"
A_idx_logp = logpt(A_idx, {A_idx: A_idx_value_var, I_rv: I_value_var})
logp_vals_fn = aesara.function([A_idx_value_var, I_value_var], A_idx_logp)
# The compiled graph should not contain any `RandomVariables`
assert_no_rvs(logp_vals_fn.maker.fgraph.outputs[0])
decimals = select_by_precision(float64=6, float32=4)
for i in range(10):
bern_sp = sp.bernoulli(p)
I_value = bern_sp.rvs(size=size).astype(I_rv.dtype)
norm_sp = sp.norm(mu[I_value, np.ogrid[mu.shape[1]:]], sigma)
A_idx_value = norm_sp.rvs().astype(A_idx.dtype)
exp_obs_logps = norm_sp.logpdf(A_idx_value)
exp_obs_logps += bern_sp.logpmf(I_value)
logp_vals = logp_vals_fn(A_idx_value, I_value)
np.testing.assert_almost_equal(logp_vals,
exp_obs_logps,
decimal=decimals)
def logp(self, x):
"""
Calculate log-probability of AR1 distribution at specified value.
Parameters
----------
x: numeric
Value for which log-probability is calculated.
Returns
-------
TensorVariable
"""
k = self.k
tau_e = self.tau_e # innovation precision
tau = tau_e * (1 - k**2) # ar1 precision
x_im1 = x[:-1]
x_i = x[1:]
boundary = Normal.dist(0.0, tau=tau).logp
innov_like = Normal.dist(k * x_im1, tau=tau_e).logp(x_i)
return boundary(x[0]) + at.sum(innov_like)
def logp(self, x):
"""
Calculate log-probability of GARCH(1, 1) distribution at specified value.
Parameters
----------
x: numeric
Value for which log-probability is calculated.
Returns
-------
TensorVariable
"""
vol = self.get_volatility(x)
return at.sum(Normal.dist(0.0, sigma=vol).logp(x))
def logp(self, x):
"""
Calculate log-probability of EulerMaruyama distribution at specified value.
Parameters
----------
x: numeric
Value for which log-probability is calculated.
Returns
-------
TensorVariable
"""
xt = x[:-1]
f, g = self.sde_fn(x[:-1], *self.sde_pars)
mu = xt + self.dt * f
sd = at.sqrt(self.dt) * g
return at.sum(Normal.dist(mu=mu, sigma=sd).logp(x[1:]))
def logp(self, x):
"""
Calculate log-probability of Gaussian Random Walk distribution at specified value.
Parameters
----------
x: numeric
Value for which log-probability is calculated.
Returns
-------
TensorVariable
"""
if x.ndim > 0:
x_im1 = x[:-1]
x_i = x[1:]
mu, sigma = self._mu_and_sigma(self.mu, self.sigma)
innov_like = Normal.dist(mu=x_im1 + mu, sigma=sigma).logp(x_i)
return self.init.logp(x[0]) + at.sum(innov_like)
return self.init.logp(x)
def test_logpt_incsubtensor(indices, size):
"""Make sure we can compute a log-likelihood for ``Y[idx] = data`` where ``Y`` is univariate."""
mu = floatX(np.power(10, np.arange(np.prod(size)))).reshape(size)
data = mu[indices]
sigma = 0.001
rng = aesara.shared(np.random.RandomState(232), borrow=True)
a = Normal.dist(mu, sigma, size=size, rng=rng)
a.name = "a"
a_idx = at.set_subtensor(a[indices], data)
assert isinstance(
a_idx.owner.op,
(IncSubtensor, AdvancedIncSubtensor, AdvancedIncSubtensor1))
a_idx_value_var = a_idx.type()
a_idx_value_var.name = "a_idx_value"
a_idx_logp = logpt(a_idx, a_idx_value_var)
logp_vals = a_idx_logp.eval()
# The indices that were set should all have the same log-likelihood values,
# because the values they were set to correspond to the unique means along
# that dimension. This helps us confirm that the log-likelihood is
# associating the assigned values with their correct parameters.
exp_obs_logps = sp.norm.logpdf(mu, mu, sigma)[indices]
np.testing.assert_almost_equal(logp_vals[indices], exp_obs_logps)
# Next, we need to confirm that the unset indices are being sampled
# from the original random variable in the correct locations.
# rng.get_value(borrow=True).seed(232)
res_ancestors = list(walk_model((a_idx_logp, ), walk_past_rvs=True))
res_rv_ancestors = tuple(
v for v in res_ancestors
if v.owner and isinstance(v.owner.op, RandomVariable))
# The imputed missing values are drawn from the original distribution
(a_new, ) = res_rv_ancestors
assert a_new is not a
assert a_new.owner.op == a.owner.op
fg = FunctionGraph(
[
v for v in graph_inputs((a_idx_logp, ))
if not isinstance(v, Constant)
],
[a_idx_logp],
clone=False,
)
((a_client, _), ) = fg.clients[a_new]
# The imputed values should be treated as constants when gradients are
# taken
assert isinstance(a_client.op, DisconnectedGrad)
((a_client, _), ) = fg.clients[a_client.outputs[0]]
assert isinstance(
a_client.op,
(IncSubtensor, AdvancedIncSubtensor, AdvancedIncSubtensor1))
indices = tuple(i.eval() for i in a_client.inputs[2:])
np.testing.assert_almost_equal(indices, indices)
