Example #1
0
    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds):
        """
        Wrapper for sklearn Logistic Regression for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.team_features = []
Example #2
0
    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds, power_rankings):

        """
        Wrapper for sklearn classification models for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds, power_rankings)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.SVM = svm.SVC(probability=True)
        self.GBT = ensemble.GradientBoostingClassifier()
        self.team_features = []
Example #3
0
    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds):

        """
        Wrapper for sklearn Logistic Regression for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.team_features = []
Example #4
0
class Logistic(object):
    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds):
        """
        Wrapper for sklearn Logistic Regression for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.team_features = []

    def train(self):
        X = self.build_matrix()
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        Y = X[:, -1]
        self.Logit.fit(scaled_X, Y)

    def predict(self, season):
        """
        Infile is tourney_seeds.csv - since removed

        Output is predictions, index
        """
        #team_list = []
        team_list = self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season].keys()
        matrix = []
        index = []
        #with open(infile, 'r') as f:
        #    reader = csv.reader(f)
        #    for row in reader:
        #        if row[0] == season:
        #            team_list.append(row[2])
        #            ####MODIFY LATER FOR SEEDS
        #I unindented this whole chunk
        team_list.sort()
        for (l_team, h_team) in combinations(team_list, 2):
            matrix.append(self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team))
            index.append((l_team, h_team))
        return self.Logit.predict_proba(preprocessing.scale(
            np.array(matrix))), index

    def score(self):
        X = self.build_matrix()
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        Y = X[:, -1]
        scores = cross_validation.cross_val_score(self.Logit,
                                                  scaled_X,
                                                  Y,
                                                  cv=5)
        return scores

    def build_row(self, season, l_team, h_team):
        temp_list = []
        l_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][l_team]
        h_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][h_team]
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, l_team))
        temp_list.append(l_dict['net_score'])
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, l_team))
        #temp_list.append(self.)
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, h_team))
        temp_list.append(h_dict['net_score'])
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, h_team))
        #additions
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][l_team]
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][h_team]
        return temp_list

    def build_matrix(self, exclude_season=None):
        output_list = []
        seasons = [x for x in self.Ranks.tourney if x != exclude_season]
        for season in seasons:
            for (l_team, h_team) in self.Ranks.tourney[season]:
                temp_list = self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team)
                temp_list.append(self.Ranks.tourney[season][(l_team, h_team)])
                output_list.append(temp_list)

        return np.array(output_list)
Example #5
0
class Logistic(object):

    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds):

        """
        Wrapper for sklearn Logistic Regression for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.team_features = []

    def train(self):
        X = self.build_matrix()
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        Y = X[:, -1]
        self.Logit.fit(scaled_X, Y)

    def predict(self, season):
        """
        Infile is tourney_seeds.csv - since removed

        Output is predictions, index
        """
        #team_list = []
        team_list = self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season].keys()
        matrix = []
        index = []
        #with open(infile, 'r') as f:
        #    reader = csv.reader(f)
        #    for row in reader:
        #        if row[0] == season:
        #            team_list.append(row[2])
        #            ####MODIFY LATER FOR SEEDS
        #I unindented this whole chunk
        team_list.sort()
        for (l_team, h_team) in combinations(team_list, 2):
            matrix.append(self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team))
            index.append((l_team, h_team))
        return self.Logit.predict_proba(preprocessing.scale(np.array(matrix))), index

    def score(self):
        X = self.build_matrix()
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        Y = X[:, -1]
        scores = cross_validation.cross_val_score(self.Logit, scaled_X, Y, cv=5)
        return scores



    def build_row(self, season, l_team, h_team):
        temp_list = []
        l_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][l_team]
        h_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][h_team]
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, l_team))
        temp_list.append(l_dict['net_score'])
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, l_team))
        #temp_list.append(self.)
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, h_team))
        temp_list.append(h_dict['net_score'])
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, h_team))
        #additions
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][l_team]
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][h_team]
        return temp_list

    def build_matrix(self, exclude_season=None):
        output_list = []
        seasons = [x for x in self.Ranks.tourney if x != exclude_season]
        for season in seasons:
            for (l_team, h_team) in self.Ranks.tourney[season]:
                temp_list = self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team)
                temp_list.append(self.Ranks.tourney[season][(l_team, h_team)])
                output_list.append(temp_list)

        return np.array(output_list)
Example #6
0
class ClassificationModels(object):

    def __init__(self, reg_season, tourney, seeds, power_rankings):

        """
        Wrapper for sklearn classification models for Kaggle NCAA Tourney

        """
        self.Ranks = RankingsCalculator(reg_season, tourney, seeds, power_rankings)
        self.Logit = linear_model.LogisticRegression()
        self.SVM = svm.SVC(probability=True)
        self.GBT = ensemble.GradientBoostingClassifier()
        self.team_features = []

    def train(self, exclude_seasons=[]):
        X = self.build_matrix(exclude_seasons)
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        Y = X[:, -1]
        imputer = preprocessing.Imputer(missing_values='NaN', strategy='mean', axis=0)
        imputer.fit(scaled_X)
        scaled_X = imputer.transform(scaled_X)
        self.Logit.fit(scaled_X, Y)
        self.SVM.fit(scaled_X, Y)
        self.GBT.fit(scaled_X, Y)

    def predict(self, season, a=1, b=1, c=1):
        """
        Output is predictions, index
        """
        #team_list = []
        team_list = self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season].keys()
        matrix = []
        index = []
        #with open(infile, 'r') as f:
        #    reader = csv.reader(f)
        #    for row in reader:
        #        if row[0] == season:
        #            team_list.append(row[2])
        #            ####MODIFY LATER FOR SEEDS
        #I unindented this whole chunk
        team_list.sort()
        for (l_team, h_team) in combinations(team_list, 2):
            matrix.append(self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team))
            index.append((l_team, h_team))
        matrix = np.array(matrix)
        imputer = preprocessing.Imputer(missing_values='NaN', strategy='mean', axis=0)
        imputer.fit(matrix)
        logit = self.Logit.predict_proba(preprocessing.scale(imputer.transform(matrix)))
        SVM = self.SVM.predict_proba(preprocessing.scale(imputer.transform(matrix)))
        GBT = self.GBT.predict_proba(preprocessing.scale(imputer.transform(matrix)))
        pred = []
        for i in range(len(logit)):
            pred.append((a*logit[i][1] + b*SVM[i][1] + c*GBT[i][1])/(a+b+c))
        return pd.DataFrame(pred, index=index)


    def score(self):
        X = self.build_matrix()
        scaled_X = preprocessing.scale(X[:, :-1])
        imputer = preprocessing.Imputer(missing_values='NaN', strategy='mean', axis=0)
        imputer.fit(scaled_X)
        scaled_X = imputer.transform(scaled_X)
        Y = X[:, -1]
        svm_scores = cross_validation.cross_val_score(self.SVM, scaled_X, Y, cv=10)
        log_scores = cross_validation.cross_val_score(self.Logit, scaled_X, Y, cv=10)
        gbt_scores = cross_validation.cross_val_score(self.GBT, scaled_X, Y, cv=10)
        return svm_scores.mean(), log_scores.mean(), gbt_scores.mean()

    def build_row(self, season, l_team, h_team):
        temp_list = []
        l_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][l_team]
        h_dict = self.Ranks.reg_season[season][h_team]
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, l_team))
        temp_list.append(l_dict['net_score'])
        try:
            temp_list.append(l_dict['power'])
        except KeyError:
            temp_list.append(np.NaN)
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, l_team))
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_RPI(season, h_team))
        temp_list.append(h_dict['net_score'])
        try:
            temp_list.append(l_dict['power'])
        except KeyError:
            temp_list.append(np.NaN)
        temp_list.append(self.Ranks.calc_SOS(season, h_team))

        #additions
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][l_team]
        temp_list += self.Ranks.tourney_seeds[season][h_team]
        return temp_list

    def build_matrix(self, exclude_seasons=[]):
        output_list = []
        seasons = [x for x in self.Ranks.tourney if x not in exclude_seasons]
        for season in seasons:
            for (l_team, h_team) in self.Ranks.tourney[season]:
                temp_list = self.build_row(season, l_team, h_team)
                temp_list.append(self.Ranks.tourney[season][(l_team, h_team)])
                output_list.append(temp_list)
        return np.array(output_list)

    def cross_validate(self):
        seasons = [chr(x) for x in range(65, 83)]
        shuffle(seasons)
        test = seasons[:3]
        train = seasons[3:]
        self.train(exclude_seasons=test)
        for a in range(1,6):
            for b in range(1,6):
                for c in range(1,6):
                    for season in test:
                        df = self.predict(season, a=a, b=b, c=c)
                        #results =



    def eval_log_loss(self, pred_frame, results_frame):
        run_sum = 0
        for i in range(len(pred_frame[0])):
            y = results_frame[0][i]
            y_hat = pred_frame[0][i]
            run_sum += y * log(y_hat) + (1 - y) * log(1-y_hat)
        return (-1.0/len(pred_frame[0])) * run_sum