def metaculus_via_api_keys():
load_dotenv()
user_api_key = cast(str, os.getenv("METACULUS_USER_WWW_API_KEY"))
org_api_key = cast(str, os.getenv("METACULUS_ORG_API_KEY"))
if None in [user_api_key, org_api_key]:
raise ValueError(
".env is missing METACULUS_ORG_API_KEY or METACULUS_USER_WWW_API_KEY"
)
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus()
metaculus.login_via_api_keys(
user_api_key=user_api_key, org_api_key=org_api_key,
)
return metaculus
def metaculus():
load_dotenv()
uname = cast(str, os.getenv("METACULUS_USERNAME"))
pwd = cast(str, os.getenv("METACULUS_PASSWORD"))
user_id_str = cast(str, os.getenv("METACULUS_USER_ID"))
if None in [uname, pwd, user_id_str]:
raise ValueError(
".env is missing METACULUS_USERNAME, METACULUS_PASSWORD, or METACULUS_USER_ID"
)
user_id = int(user_id_str)
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus(uname, pwd)
assert metaculus.user_id == user_id
return metaculus
def metaculus():
load_dotenv()
uname = METACULUS_USERNAME
pwd = METACULUS_PASSWORD
user_id_str = METACULUS_USER_ID
if None in [uname, pwd, user_id_str]:
raise ValueError(
".env is missing METACULUS_USERNAME, METACULUS_PASSWORD, or METACULUS_USER_ID"
)
user_id = int(user_id_str)
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus()
metaculus.login_via_username_and_password(username=uname, password=pwd)
assert metaculus.user_id == user_id
return metaculus
def submit_recalibrated(qid, ir_model, session=None, username=USERNAME, password=PASSWORD, debug=False):
if session is None:
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus()
metaculus.login_via_username_and_password(username=username, password=password)
else:
metaculus = session
question = metaculus.get_question(qid)
comm_cdf = get_histogram(question.data)['c'].cumsum() / 200
cdf = ir_model.predict(comm_cdf)
lm = LogisticMixture()
lm.fit(cdf)
low_closed, high_closed = [not question.possibilities.get(side)=='tail' for side in ('low', 'high')]
data = lm.get_prediction_data(low_closed, high_closed)
if not debug and is_open(question):
print(f"\t{question.name}")
metaculus.predict(q_id=str(qid), data=data)
return lm.func(np.linspace(0,1,len(cdf)), *lm.opt), cdf, comm_cdf.squeeze().values
def fetch_questions(search_query,
qid_path=None,
username=USERNAME,
password=PASSWORD,
n_pages=N_PAGES):
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus()
metaculus.login_via_username_and_password(username=username,
password=password)
if qid_path is not None:
with open(qid_path, "r") as f:
qids = [int(qid) for qid in f.readlines()]
return [metaculus.get_question(qid) for qid in qids]
qs = []
for cat in search_query:
qs.extend(metaculus.get_questions(cat=cat, pages=n_pages))
return qs
def unauthenticated_metaculus():
return ergo.Metaculus()
if not dry_run:
print("\tSubmitting")
question.submit_from_samples(samples)
else:
comm_samples = np.array(
[question.sample_community() for _ in range(n_samples)])
print("\tSaving to file...")
np.save(f"samples/{question.id}",
np.vstack([samples, comm_samples]).T)
if __name__ == '__main__':
# Login and load questions
metaculus = ergo.Metaculus()
metaculus.login_via_username_and_password(username=USERNAME,
password=PASSWORD)
print("Fetching questions...")
qs = []
for cat in CATS:
qs.extend(metaculus.get_questions(cat=cat, pages=N_PAGES))
print("Done!\n")
# Submit
for q in qs:
print(f"{q.id}: {q.name}")
if int(q.id) in MANUAL:
print("\tSkipping...")
try: