def objective(parameters):
i.append(0)
set_weights(model, parameters)
p = model.predict(X, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
auc = roc_auc_truncated(y, p)
pa = model.predict(Xa, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
ks = compute_ks(pa[ya == 0], pa[ya == 1], wa[ya == 0], wa[ya == 1])
pc = model.predict(Xc, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
cvm = compute_cvm(pc, mc)
ks_importance = 1 # relative KS importance
ks_target = ks_threshold
cvm_importance = 1 # relative CVM importance
cvm_target = cvm_threshold
alpha = 0.001 # LeakyReLU
ks_loss = (1 if ks > ks_target else alpha) * (ks - ks_target)
cvm_loss = (1 if cvm > cvm_target else alpha) * (cvm - cvm_target)
loss = -auc + ks_importance*ks_loss + cvm_importance*cvm_loss
if ks < ks_threshold and cvm < cvm_threshold and auc > auc_log[0]:
d.append(0)
dump_transductor_model(model, transductor_model_file.format(len(d)))
auc_log.pop()
auc_log.append(auc)
message = "iteration {:7}: Best AUC={:7.5f} achieved, KS={:7.5f}, CVM={:7.5f}".format(len(i), auc, ks, cvm)
logger.info(message)
if verbose:
print("iteration {:7}: AUC: {:7.5f}, KS: {:7.5f}, CVM: {:7.5f}, loss: {:8.5f}".format(len(i),
auc, ks, cvm, loss))
return loss
def cv_model(model_list):
print "generating cv csv files...."
train, test = gen_data()
label = train['signal']
train_id = train.id
test_id = test.id
train_del, test_del = delete_features(train), delete_features(test)
check_agreement = pd.read_csv('../data/check_agreement.csv')
check_correlation = pd.read_csv('../data/check_correlation.csv')
check_agreement= add_features(check_agreement)
check_correlation = add_features(check_correlation)
X, X_test = train_del.as_matrix(), test_del.as_matrix()
print X.shape, X_test.shape
kf = KFold(label, n_folds = 4)
for j, (clf, clf_name) in enumerate(model_list):
print "modelling model %i ...."%j
cv_train = np.zeros(len(label))
for i, (train_fold, validate) in enumerate(kf):
X_train, X_validate, label_train, label_validate = X[train_fold,:], X[validate,:], label[train_fold], label[validate]
clf.fit(X_train,label_train)
cv_train[validate] = clf.predict_proba(X_validate)[:,1]
auc_score = evaluation.roc_auc_truncated(label[train['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4],
pd.Series(cv_train)[train['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4])
print "the true roc_auc_truncated is %.6f"%auc_score
clf.fit(X, label)
test_probs = clf.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1]
# check if it passes the tests
print "check if it passes the tests"
agreement_probs = clf.predict_proba(delete_features(check_agreement).as_matrix())[:,1]
ks = evaluation.compute_ks(
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0],
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1],
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 0]['weight'].values,
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 1]['weight'].values)
print ('KS metric', ks, ks <= 0.09)
correlation_probs = clf.predict_proba(delete_features(check_correlation).as_matrix())[:,1]
print ('Checking correlation...')
cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
print ('CvM metric', cvm, cvm <= 0.002)
#if ks <= 0.09 and cvm <= 0.002 and auc_score > 0.975: # no need to check here
if auc_score > 0.965: # the minimum threshold
# save the cv
cv_sub = pd.DataFrame({"id": train_id, "prediction": cv_train, "label": label})
cv_sub.to_csv("../data/cv_folder/xgb%i.csv"%j, index=False)
# save the prediction
submission = pd.DataFrame({"id": test_id, "prediction": test_probs})
submission.to_csv("../data/pred_folder/xgb%i.csv"%j, index=False)
# save agreement
submission = pd.DataFrame({"id": check_agreement['id'], "prediction": agreement_probs})
submission.to_csv("../data/agree_folder/xgb%i.csv"%j, index=False)
# save correlation
submission = pd.DataFrame({"id": check_correlation['id'], "prediction": correlation_probs})
submission.to_csv("../data/correlation_folder/xgb%i.csv"%j, index=False)
def check_ks_and_cvm(self, data, check_agreement, check_correlation):
print('Checking KS and CVM for ' + self.model_name + ' model with ' +
self.var_name + ' variables\n')
mod = self.create_model()
X = data[self.variables].values
y = data['signal'].values
if self.nn == True:
train_X, val_X, train_y, val_y = train_test_split(X,
y,
test_size=0.2)
self.train_params['validation_data'] = (val_X, val_y)
scaler = StandardScaler()
train_X = scaler.fit_transform(train_X)
val_X = scaler.transform(val_X)
ch_agr = scaler.transform(check_agreement[self.variables])
ch_cor = scaler.transform(check_correlation[self.variables])
self.scaler = scaler
mod.fit(X, y, **self.train_params)
if self.nn == True:
agreement_probs = mod.predict(ch_agr)
correlation_probs = mod.predict(ch_cor).reshape(
(ch_cor.shape[0], ))
else:
agreement_probs = mod.predict_proba(
check_agreement[self.variables].values)[:, 1]
correlation_probs = mod.predict_proba(
check_correlation[self.variables].values)[:, 1]
ks = evaluation.compute_ks(
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0],
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1],
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 0]['weight'].values,
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 1]['weight'].values)
cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs,
check_correlation['mass'])
print('KS metric = {}. Is it smaller than 0.09? {}'.format(
ks, ks < 0.09))
print('CVM metric = {}. Is it smaller than 0.002? {}\n'.format(
cvm, cvm < 0.002))
self.ks = ks
self.cvm = cvm
self.trained_model = mod
self.agreement_probs = agreement_probs
self.correlation_probs = correlation_probs
def objective(parameters):
i.append(0)
set_weights(model, parameters)
p = model.predict(X, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
auc = roc_auc_truncated(y, p)
pa = model.predict(Xa, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
ks = compute_ks(pa[ya == 0], pa[ya == 1], wa[ya == 0], wa[ya == 1])
pc = model.predict(Xc, batch_size=256, verbose=0)[:, 1]
cvm = compute_cvm(pc, mc)
ks_importance = 1 # relative KS importance
ks_target = ks_threshold
cvm_importance = 1 # relative CVM importance
cvm_target = cvm_threshold
alpha = 0.001 # LeakyReLU
ks_loss = (1 if ks > ks_target else alpha) * (ks - ks_target)
cvm_loss = (1 if cvm > cvm_target else alpha) * (cvm - cvm_target)
loss = -auc + ks_importance * ks_loss + cvm_importance * cvm_loss
if ks < ks_threshold and cvm < cvm_threshold and auc > auc_log[0]:
d.append(0)
dump_transductor_model(model,
transductor_model_file.format(len(d)))
auc_log.pop()
auc_log.append(auc)
message = "iteration {:7}: Best AUC={:7.5f} achieved, KS={:7.5f}, CVM={:7.5f}".format(
len(i), auc, ks, cvm)
logger.info(message)
if verbose:
print(
"iteration {:7}: AUC: {:7.5f}, KS: {:7.5f}, CVM: {:7.5f}, loss: {:8.5f}"
.format(len(i), auc, ks, cvm, loss))
return loss
check_agreement = pandas.read_csv(folder + 'check_agreement.csv', index_col='id')
xg_check_agreement = xgb.DMatrix(check_agreement.values)
agreement_probs = xgb_model.predict(xg_check_agreement)
ks = evaluation.compute_ks(
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0],
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1],
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 0]['weight'].values,
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 1]['weight'].values)
print 'KS metric', ks, ks < 0.09
# Check correlation test
check_correlation = pandas.read_csv(folder + 'check_correlation.csv', index_col='id')
xg_check_correlation = xgb.DMatrix(check_correlation.values)
correlation_probs = xgb_model.predict(xg_check_correlation)
cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
print 'CvM metric', cvm, cvm < 0.002
# Compute weighted AUC on the training data with min_ANNmuon > 0.4
train_eval = train[train['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4]
train_eval_X = train_eval.drop(variables_to_drop, 1).values
xg_train_eval = xgb.DMatrix(train_eval_X)
train_probs = xgb_model.predict(xg_train_eval)
AUC = evaluation.roc_auc_truncated(train_eval['signal'], train_probs)
print 'AUC', AUC
# Predict test, create file for kaggle
test = pandas.read_csv(folder + 'test.csv', index_col='id')
test_X = test.values
xg_test = xgb.DMatrix(test_X)
result = pandas.DataFrame({'id': test.index})
print("Experiment with ensembling")
# I accidentaly found, that raising XGB prediction to some exponent helps.
# I don't know why :-)
# The higher exponent the better it seems to work.
for exponent in [1, 16, 256]:
print('\nPredictions for exponent = %d:' % (exponent));
for q in np.arange(0.1, 1.01, 0.1):
sl_cvP = q * (sl_cvPStrong ** exponent) + (1 - q) * sl_cvPWeak;
sl_cvP[sl_cvP < 0] = 0;
sl_cvP[sl_cvP > 1] = 1;
agrP = q * (agrPStrong ** exponent) + (1 - q) * agrPWeak;
correlP = q * (correlPStrong ** exponent) + (1 - q) * correlPWeak;
sqErr = np.mean((sl_cvP - sl_cvTarget) ** 2);
roc = getErrROC(sl_cvP, sl_cvTarget);
agr = getErrAGR(agrP, agrTarget, agrW);
correl = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlP, check_correlation['mass']);
print("mix %4.2f - sqErr: %6.4f, ROC: %6.4f, AGR: %6.4f, correl: %6.4f" \
% (q, sqErr, roc, agr, correl))
print("Train XGBoost models on full data");
gbmPcaStrong = xgb.train(xgbParams, trainInputStrong, numTreesStrong);
gbmPcaWeak = xgb.train(xgbParams, trainInputWeak, numTreesWeak);
print("Make predictions on full data");
testPStrong = gbmPcaStrong.predict(testInputStrong);
testPWeak = gbmPcaWeak.predict(testInputWeak);
# mix xgb and nn prediction on test data, save output
for q in np.arange(0.1,1.01,0.1):
testP = q * (testPStrong ** 256) + (1 - q) * testPWeak;
testP[testP < 0] = 0;
def check_corr_func(self, correlation_probs): cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, self.check_correlation['mass']) return cvm
0.3*agreement_probs1[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0]+
0.7*agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0],
0.3*agreement_probs1[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1]+
0.7*agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1],
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 0]['weight'].values,
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 1]['weight'].values)
print 'KS metric rf', ks1, ks1 < 0.09
check_correlation = pd.read_csv('C:/Users/sony/Downloads/Compressed/CERN/check_correlation.csv', index_col='id')
correlation_probs = gd.predict_proba(check_correlation[features])[:, 1]
#cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
#print 'CvM metric for gb', cvm, cvm < 0.002
correlation_probs1 = rf.predict_proba(check_correlation[features])[:, 1]
cvm1 = evaluation.compute_cvm(0.3*correlation_probs1+0.7*correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
print 'CvM metric for rf', cvm1, cvm1 < 0.002
train_eval = train[train['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4]
train_probs = gd.predict_proba(train_eval[features])[:, 1]
#AUC = evaluation.roc_auc_truncated(train_eval['signal'], train_probs)
#print 'AUC metric for gb', AUC
#train_eval1 = train[train['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4]
train_probs1 = rf.predict_proba(train_eval[features])[:, 1]
AUC = evaluation.roc_auc_truncated(train_eval['signal'], .3*train_probs1+0.7*train_probs)
print 'AUC metric for rf', AUC
"""
print("Make predictions on the test set")
def check_corr_func(self, correlation_probs):
cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs,
self.check_correlation['mass'])
return cvm
def train_test_predict(classifier, classifier_name, features, features_name,
data_directory, training_data):
"""
"""
# Fit the classifier with the training data.
start = time.time()
classifier.fit(training_data[features], training_data['signal'])
end = time.time()
print("time to fit the classifier: {} seconds".format(end - start))
print()
# Check the agreement test.
start = time.time()
check_agreement = pandas.read_csv(data_directory + 'check_agreement.csv', index_col='id')
agreement_probs = classifier.predict_proba(check_agreement[features])[:, 1]
ks = evaluation.compute_ks(
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 0],
agreement_probs[check_agreement['signal'].values == 1],
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 0]['weight'].values,
check_agreement[check_agreement['signal'] == 1]['weight'].values)
print('KS metric', ks, ks < 0.09)
end = time.time()
print("time to check the agreement test: {} seconds".format(end - start))
print()
# Check the correlation test.
start = time.time()
check_correlation = pandas.read_csv(data_directory + 'check_correlation.csv', index_col='id')
correlation_probs = classifier.predict_proba(check_correlation[features])[:, 1]
cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
print('CvM metric', cvm, cvm < 0.002)
end = time.time()
print("time to check the correlation test: {} seconds".format(end - start))
print()
# Compute weighted AUC on the training data with min_ANNmuon > 0.4.
start = time.time()
train_eval = training_data[training_data['min_ANNmuon'] > 0.4]
train_probs = classifier.predict_proba(train_eval[features])[:, 1]
AUC = evaluation.roc_auc_truncated(train_eval['signal'], train_probs)
print('AUC', AUC)
end = time.time()
print("time to compute the weighted AUC: {} seconds".format(end - start))
print()
# Make predictions on the test data.
start = time.time()
testing_data = pandas.read_csv(data_directory + 'test.csv', index_col='id')
result = pandas.DataFrame({'id': testing_data.index})
result['prediction'] = classifier.predict_proba(testing_data[features])[:, 1]
end = time.time()
print("time to make predictions: {} seconds".format(end - start))
print()
predictions_name = classifier_name + '-' + features_name
# Generate the csv file for Kaggle.
result.to_csv(predictions_name + '.csv', index=False, sep=',')
# Run the shell commands to generate the final archive through
# the subprocess module calls.
print(subprocess.check_output(['rm', '-f', predictions_name+'.7z']))
print(subprocess.check_output(['7z', 'a', predictions_name+'.7z', predictions_name+'.csv']))
print(subprocess.check_output(['ls', '-Ahl', predictions_name+'.csv']))
print(subprocess.check_output(['ls', '-Ahl', predictions_name+'.7z']))
def correlation(model, variables, mu, sig):
check_correlation = read_csv('E:\\FlavoursOfPhysics\\flavours-of-physics-start-master\\tau_data\\' + 'check_correlation.csv', index_col='id')
correlation_probs = np.asarray(model.predict()(np.matrix(featureNormalization(check_correlation[variables].values, mu, sig)).astype(theano.config.floatX))).T[0]
return evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass'])
def is_conform_correlation(check_correlation, variables, model): correlation_probs = model.predict_proba(check_correlation[variables])[:, 1] cvm = evaluation.compute_cvm(correlation_probs, check_correlation['mass']) return (cvm < 0.002)