def get_ILS(event, quals, teams, team_stats, team_matches):
min_ils = -1 / 3
out = {}
for team in teams:
out[team] = np.zeros(shape=(len(quals) + 1, 2))
out[team][0] = [
team_stats[team]["ils_1_start"],
team_stats[team]["ils_2_start"],
]
for i, m in enumerate(quals):
red, blue = m["red"], m["blue"]
adjust_red_1 = (m["red_rp_1"] - logistic(sum([out[r][i][0] for r in red]))) / 10
adjust_red_2 = (m["red_rp_2"] - logistic(sum([out[r][i][1] for r in red]))) / 10
adjust_blue_1 = (
m["blue_rp_1"] - logistic(sum([out[b][i][0] for b in blue]))
) / 10
adjust_blue_2 = (
m["blue_rp_2"] - logistic(sum([out[b][i][1] for b in blue]))
) / 10
for t in teams:
out[t][i + 1] = out[t][i]
if t in red:
out[t][i + 1][0] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][0] + adjust_red_1)
out[t][i + 1][1] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][1] + adjust_red_2)
elif t in blue:
out[t][i + 1][0] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][0] + adjust_blue_1)
out[t][i + 1][1] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][1] + adjust_blue_2)
return out
def get_ILS(event, quals):
min_ils = -1 / 3
teams, out = [], {}
for team_event in event.team_events:
teams.append(team_event.team_id)
out[teams[-1]] = np.zeros(shape=(len(quals) + 1, 2))
curr = [team_event.ils_1_start, team_event.ils_2_start]
out[teams[-1]][0] = np.array(curr)
for i, m in enumerate(quals):
red, blue = m.getTeams()
adjust_red_1 = (m.red_rp_1 - logistic(sum([out[r][i][0]
for r in red]))) / 10
adjust_red_2 = (m.red_rp_2 - logistic(sum([out[r][i][1]
for r in red]))) / 10
adjust_blue_1 = (m.blue_rp_1 -
logistic(sum([out[b][i][0] for b in blue]))) / 10
adjust_blue_2 = (m.blue_rp_2 -
logistic(sum([out[b][i][1] for b in blue]))) / 10
for t in teams:
out[t][i + 1] = out[t][i]
if t in red:
out[t][i + 1][0] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][0] + adjust_red_1)
out[t][i + 1][1] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][1] + adjust_red_2)
elif t in blue:
out[t][i + 1][0] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][0] + adjust_blue_1)
out[t][i + 1][1] = max(min_ils, out[t][i][1] + adjust_blue_2)
return out
def rp_prob(teams):
return logistic(sum(teams))
def process_event(event, quals, playoffs, year, sd_score, team_ils_1,
team_ils_2):
oprs, ils = opr_model.opr_v2(event, quals, playoffs)
opr_acc, opr_mse, mix_acc, mix_mse, count = 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
rp1_acc, rp1_mse, rp2_acc, rp2_mse, count_rp = 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
for i, m in enumerate(sorted(quals) + sorted(playoffs)):
red, blue = m.getRed(), m.getBlue()
red_oprs, blue_oprs = [], []
ind = -1 if m.playoff == 1 else i
for r in red:
if r in oprs and len(oprs[r]) > 0 and ind <= len(oprs[r]):
red_oprs.append(clean(oprs[r][ind][0]))
for b in blue:
if b in oprs and len(oprs[b]) > 0 and ind <= len(oprs[b]):
blue_oprs.append(clean(oprs[b][ind][0]))
win_probs = {"red": 1, "blue": 0, "draw": 0.5}
red_sum, blue_sum = sum(red_oprs), sum(blue_oprs)
m.red_opr_sum, m.blue_opr_sum = red_sum, blue_sum
m.opr_winner = "red" if red_sum > blue_sum else "blue"
m.opr_win_prob = opr_model.win_prob(red_sum, blue_sum, year, sd_score)
opr_mse += (win_probs[m.winner] - m.opr_win_prob)**2
if m.opr_winner == m.winner:
opr_acc += 1
m.mix_win_prob = 0.5 * (m.elo_win_prob + m.opr_win_prob)
m.mix_winner = "red" if m.mix_win_prob > 0.5 else "blue"
mix_mse += (win_probs[m.winner] - m.mix_win_prob)**2
if m.winner == m.mix_winner:
mix_acc += 1
count += 1
"""ILS STATS"""
if year >= 2016 and m.playoff == 0:
# only predict on quals as elims don't have Ranking Points
m.red_ils_1_sum = red_ils_1_sum = sum(
[clean(ils[r][ind][0]) for r in red])
m.red_ils_2_sum = red_ils_2_sum = sum(
[clean(ils[r][ind][1]) for r in red])
m.blue_ils_1_sum = blue_ils_1_sum = sum(
[clean(ils[b][ind][0]) for b in blue])
m.blue_ils_2_sum = blue_ils_2_sum = sum(
[clean(ils[b][ind][1]) for b in blue])
m.red_rp_1_prob = red_rp_1_prob = logistic(red_ils_1_sum)
m.red_rp_2_prob = red_rp_2_prob = logistic(red_ils_2_sum)
m.blue_rp_1_prob = blue_rp_1_prob = logistic(blue_ils_1_sum)
m.blue_rp_2_prob = blue_rp_2_prob = logistic(blue_ils_2_sum)
red_rp_1, red_rp_2 = m.red_rp_1, m.red_rp_2
blue_rp_1, blue_rp_2 = m.blue_rp_1, m.blue_rp_2
if int(red_rp_1_prob + 0.5) == red_rp_1:
rp1_acc += 1
if int(red_rp_2_prob + 0.5) == red_rp_2:
rp2_acc += 1
if int(blue_rp_1_prob + 0.5) == blue_rp_1:
rp1_acc += 1
if int(blue_rp_2_prob + 0.5) == blue_rp_2:
rp2_acc += 1
rp1_mse += (red_rp_1_prob - red_rp_1)**2
rp2_mse += (red_rp_2_prob - red_rp_2)**2
rp1_mse += (blue_rp_1_prob - blue_rp_1)**2
rp2_mse += (blue_rp_2_prob - blue_rp_2)**2
count_rp += 2
opr_stats = [opr_acc, opr_mse, mix_acc, mix_mse, count]
rp_stats = [rp1_acc, rp1_mse, rp2_acc, rp2_mse, count_rp]
event.opr_acc = round(opr_acc / count, 4)
event.opr_mse = round(opr_mse / count, 4)
event.mix_acc = round(mix_acc / count, 4)
event.mix_mse = round(mix_mse / count, 4)
if count_rp > 0:
event.rp1_acc = round(rp1_acc / count_rp, 4)
event.rp1_mse = round(rp1_mse / count_rp, 4)
event.rp2_acc = round(rp2_acc / count_rp, 4)
event.rp2_mse = round(rp2_mse / count_rp, 4)
stats = opr_stats + rp_stats
return oprs, ils, team_ils_1, team_ils_2, stats