def match_up(player1, player2):
spw_p1, counter_p1 = predictions(player1,player2)
spw_p2, counter_p2 = predictions(player2,player1)
# ask if its a five setter tournament
five_setter = 1
#normalizing values
avg_p1spw = spw_p1/counter_p1
avg_p2spw = spw_p2/counter_p2
delta_a_b = avg_p1spw - avg_p2spw
p1_win_probability = markov.match_win_probability_5(0.6+delta_a_b,(1-0.6))+markov.match_win_probability_5(0.6,(1-(0.6-delta_a_b)))
p1_win_probability = p1_win_probability/2
p2_win_probability = 1-p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p1 = 1/p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p2 = 1/p2_win_probability
print str(avg_p1spw) + ", " + str(avg_p2spw)
print "In a match up between " + player1 + " and " + player2 + " on " + str(time.strftime("%d/%m/%Y"))
print "Player 1 win probability: " + str(p1_win_probability*100) + "%"
print "Player 2 win probability: " + str(p2_win_probability*100) + "%"
print "Only bet on Player 1 if the odds>$"+str(predicted_odds_p1)
print "Only bet on Player 2 if the odds>$"+str(predicted_odds_p2)
def match_up(player1, player2):
spw_p1, counter_p1 = predictions(player1, player2)
spw_p2, counter_p2 = predictions(player2, player1)
# ask if its a five setter tournament
five_setter = 1
# normalizing values
avg_p1spw = spw_p1 / counter_p1
avg_p2spw = spw_p2 / counter_p2
delta_a_b = avg_p1spw - avg_p2spw
p1_win_probability = markov.match_win_probability_5(0.6 + delta_a_b, (1 - 0.6)) + markov.match_win_probability_5(
0.6, (1 - (0.6 - delta_a_b))
)
p1_win_probability = p1_win_probability / 2
p2_win_probability = 1 - p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p1 = 1 / p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p2 = 1 / p2_win_probability
print str(avg_p1spw) + ", " + str(avg_p2spw)
print "In a match up between " + player1 + " and " + player2 + " on " + str(time.strftime("%d/%m/%Y"))
print "Player 1 win probability: " + str(p1_win_probability * 100) + "%"
print "Player 2 win probability: " + str(p2_win_probability * 100) + "%"
print "Only bet on Player 1 if the odds>$" + str(predicted_odds_p1)
print "Only bet on Player 2 if the odds>$" + str(predicted_odds_p2)
def simulate_bets():
fixtures = csv.DictReader(open("final_fixtures.csv"))
roi = 0
matches_bet_on = 0
correct_bets = 0
wrong_bets = 0
output_results = []
for fixture in fixtures:
delta_a_b = 0
winner = -1
five_setter=0
if ("Jerzy" in fixture["player1"]) or ("Jerzy" in fixture["player2"]):
continue
if (fixture["winner"]==fixture["player1"]):
winner=1
elif (fixture["winner"]==fixture["player2"]):
winner=2
if winner<0:
print "ERROR, DOES NOT READ PLAYER 1 AND 2 CORRECTLY"
# remove the $ symbol and convert to float
market_odds_p1 = float(fixture["p1odds"][1:])
market_odds_p2 = float(fixture["p2odds"][1:])
tournament = fixture["tournament"]
# if grand slam or davis cup, its a 5 setter match
if "Slam" in tournament:
five_setter = 1
p1spw = float(fixture["p1spw"])
p2spw = float(fixture["p2spw"])
p1_spwcount = float(fixture["p1_spwcount"])
p2_spwcount = float(fixture["p2_spwcount"])
#if (p1_spwcount==0 or p2_spwcount==0 or p1_spwcount==1 or p2_spwcount==1):
if (p1_spwcount==0 or p2_spwcount==0 or p1_spwcount==1 or p2_spwcount==1):
#dont bet because there isnt enough clustering info
continue
#normalizing values
avg_p1spw = p1spw/p1_spwcount
avg_p2spw = p2spw/p2_spwcount
delta_a_b = avg_p1spw - avg_p2spw
delta_b_a = avg_p2spw - avg_p1spw
if (five_setter):
#use five setter formula
p1_win_probability = markov.match_win_probability_5(0.6+delta_a_b,(1-0.6))+markov.match_win_probability_5(0.6,(1-(0.6-delta_a_b)))
p1_win_probability = p1_win_probability/2
p2_win_probability = 1-p1_win_probability
else:
#use three sets formula (default)
p1_win_probability = markov.match_win_probability_3(0.6+delta_a_b,(1-0.6))+markov.match_win_probability_3(0.6,(1-(0.6-delta_a_b)))
p1_win_probability = p1_win_probability/2
p2_win_probability = 1-p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p1 = 1/p1_win_probability
predicted_odds_p2 = 1/p2_win_probability
#betted = 1 if bet on player 1, =2 if bet on player 2
betted = -1
if (market_odds_p1>predicted_odds_p1 and predicted_odds_p1<2):
# bet pound on p1
betted = 1
matches_bet_on +=1
elif (market_odds_p2>predicted_odds_p2 and predicted_odds_p2<2):
# bet pound on p2
betted = 2
matches_bet_on +=1
if betted<0:
# NO BET
continue
if (betted==1 and winner==1):
roi+=(market_odds_p1-1)
correct_bets+=1
output_results.append([fixture["player1"], fixture["player2"], tournament, market_odds_p1, market_odds_p2, market_odds_p1-1])
elif (betted==2 and winner==2):
roi+=(market_odds_p2-1)
correct_bets+=1
output_results.append([fixture["player2"], fixture["player1"], tournament, market_odds_p2, market_odds_p1, market_odds_p2-1])
elif (betted==1 and winner==2):
#print fixture["date"] + " "+ fixture["player1"] + " vs " + fixture["player2"] + ", bet on: "+ fixture["player1"]
roi-=1
wrong_bets+=1
output_results.append([fixture["player2"], fixture["player1"], tournament, market_odds_p2, market_odds_p1, -1])
elif (betted==2 and winner==1):
print fixture["date"] + " "+ fixture["player1"] + " vs " + fixture["player2"] + ", bet on: "+ fixture["player2"]
roi-=1
wrong_bets+=1
output_results.append([fixture["player1"], fixture["player2"], tournament, market_odds_p1, market_odds_p2, -1])
print "$"+str(roi)
print "Bet on " + str(matches_bet_on) + " matches"
print "Correct bets:" + str(correct_bets)
print "Incorrect bets:" + str(wrong_bets)
output_file = csv.writer(open("output_results.csv", "wb"), delimiter=',')
headers = ["winner", "loser", "tournament", "winner_market_odds", "loser_market_odds", "winnings"]
output_file.writerow(headers)
output_file.writerows(output_results)
