class HospitalFullModel:
def __init__(self):
self.r0 = 2.65
self.total_days = 0
self.population = POP_DENVERMETRO - 1
self.beta = None
self.susceptible = ProbState(period=0, count=self.population)
self.incubating = ProbState(period=3)
self.infectious = ProbState(period=3.8, count=1)
self.isolated = ProbState(period=14)
self.unhospitalized = ProbState(period=14)
self.h_noncritical = ProbState(period=8)
self.h_critical = ProbState(period=6)
self.h_icu = ProbState(period=10)
self.recovered = ProbState(period=10000)
self.dead = ProbState(period=10000)
self.incubating.add_exit_state(self.infectious, 1)
self.incubating.normalize_states_over_period()
self.isolated.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.isolated.normalize_states_over_period()
self.unhospitalized.add_exit_state(self.recovered, .25)
self.unhospitalized.add_exit_state(self.dead, .75)
self.unhospitalized.normalize_states_over_period()
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.isolated, .85)
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.h_noncritical, .11)
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.h_critical, .4)
self.infectious.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_noncritical.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_noncritical.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_critical.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_critical.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.recovered, .75)
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.dead, .25)
self.h_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
def reset(self):
self.total_days = 0
self.susceptible.reset()
self.susceptible.count = self.population - 1
self.incubating.reset()
self.infectious.reset()
self.infectious.count = 1
self.isolated.reset()
self.unhospitalized.reset()
self.h_noncritical.reset()
self.h_critical.reset()
self.h_icu.reset()
self.recovered.reset()
self.dead.reset()
def set_r0(self, value):
self.r0 = value
def set_population(self, value):
self.population = value
def run_period(self, days):
time_domain = np.linspace(0, days, days + 1)
# Initial conditions vector
init = (self.susceptible.count, self.incubating.count,
self.infectious.count, self.isolated.count,
self.h_noncritical.count, self.h_critical.count,
self.h_icu.count, self.unhospitalized.count,
self.recovered.count, self.dead.count)
# Integrate the SIR equations over the time grid, t.
results = odeint(deriv_seirh, init, time_domain, args=(self, ))
(d_susceptible, d_incubating, d_infectious, d_isolated, d_noncritical,
d_critical, d_icu, d_unhospitalized, d_recovered, d_dead) = results.T
self.total_days += days
self.susceptible.extend(d_susceptible)
self.incubating.extend(d_incubating)
self.infectious.extend(d_infectious)
self.isolated.extend(d_isolated)
self.h_noncritical.extend(d_noncritical)
self.h_critical.extend(d_critical)
self.h_icu.extend(d_icu)
self.unhospitalized.extend(d_unhospitalized)
self.recovered.extend(d_recovered)
self.dead.extend(d_dead)
def run_period2(self, days):
# Integrate the SIR equations over the time grid, t.
for _ in range(0, days):
self.step_day()
def run_r0_set(self, date_offsets, r0_values):
self.reset()
prev_date = 0
for itr in range(0, len(date_offsets)):
self.set_r0(r0_values[itr])
self.beta = calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)
self.recalculate()
span = date_offsets[itr] - prev_date + 1
self.run_period2(span)
prev_date = date_offsets[itr]
if len(self.unhospitalized.domain) != len(self.dead.domain):
raise ValueError(
f"oops, {len(self.unhospitalized.domain)} != {len(self.dead.domain)}"
)
def step_day(self):
new_infections = self.beta * self.susceptible.count * self.infectious.count / self.population
(new_symptomatic, ) = self.incubating.get_state_redist()
new_isolated, new_noncritical, new_critical = self.infectious.get_state_redist(
)
(recovered1, ) = self.isolated.get_state_redist()
(recovered2, ) = self.h_noncritical.get_state_redist()
(new_icu, ) = self.h_critical.get_state_redist()
recovered3, dead1 = self.h_icu.get_state_redist()
recovered4, dead2 = self.unhospitalized.get_state_redist()
d_susceptible = -new_infections
d_incubating = new_infections - new_symptomatic
d_infectious = new_symptomatic - (new_isolated + new_noncritical +
new_critical)
d_isolated = new_isolated - recovered1
d_noncritical = new_noncritical - recovered2
d_critical = new_critical - new_icu
d_icu = new_icu - (recovered3 + dead1)
d_unhospitalized = -(recovered4 + dead2)
d_recovered = recovered1 + recovered2 + recovered3 + recovered4
d_dead = dead1 + dead2
(d_noncritical, d_critical, d_icu,
d_unhospitalized) = adjust_for_overload(self.h_noncritical.count,
self.h_critical.count,
self.h_icu.count,
d_noncritical, d_critical,
d_icu, d_unhospitalized)
balances = (d_susceptible + d_incubating + d_infectious + d_isolated +
d_noncritical + d_critical + d_icu + d_unhospitalized +
d_recovered + d_dead)
if int(balances) != 0:
raise ValueError(f"balances {balances} != 0")
self.susceptible.adjust(d_susceptible)
self.incubating.adjust(d_incubating)
self.infectious.adjust(d_infectious)
self.isolated.adjust(d_isolated)
self.h_noncritical.adjust(d_noncritical)
self.h_critical.adjust(d_critical)
self.h_icu.adjust(d_icu)
self.unhospitalized.adjust(d_unhospitalized)
self.recovered.adjust(d_recovered)
self.dead.adjust(d_dead)
self.total_days += 1
class ScenarioDrivenModel:
def __init__(self, scenario):
if isinstance(scenario, str):
self.scenario = EpiScenario(scenario)
elif isinstance(scenario, EpiScenario):
self.scenario = scenario
self.modelname = self.scenario.modelname
self.total_days = 0
self.r0 = self.scenario.parameters['initial_r0']
self.beta = None
self.population = self.scenario.totalpop
self.susceptible = ProbState(period=0,
count=self.scenario.init_susceptible,
name='susceptible')
self.incubating = ProbState(period=self.scenario.incubation_period,
count=self.scenario.init_infected,
name='incubating')
self.infectious = ProbState(period=self.scenario.prediagnosis,
count=self.scenario.init_infectious,
name='infectious')
self.isolated_holding = ProbState(period=90, name='isolated_holding')
self.incubating.add_exit_state(self.infectious, 1)
self.incubating.normalize_states_over_period()
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.isolated_holding, 1)
self.infectious.normalize_states_over_period()
self.subgroups = dict()
for key, value in self.scenario.subgrouprates.items():
self.subgroups[key] = AgeGroup(value, name=key)
# self.fitness = None
def run(self):
self.run_r0_set(self.scenario.r0_date_offsets, self.scenario.r0_values)
def set_r0(self, value):
self.r0 = value
def run_r0_set(self, date_offsets, r0_values):
self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator = []
day_counter = 0
for itr in range(0, len(date_offsets)):
self.set_r0(r0_values[itr])
self.beta = calc_beta(r0_values[itr], self.infectious.period)
while day_counter < date_offsets[itr]:
self.step_day()
day_counter += 1
self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator.append(
self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator[-1])
def step_day(self):
new_infections = calc_infected(self.population, self.beta,
self.susceptible.count,
self.infectious.count)
#print(f"Day {self.total_days} infections: {new_infections} = {self.beta} * {self.susceptible.count} * {self.infectious.count} / {self.population}")
self.susceptible.store_pending(-new_infections)
self.incubating.store_pending(new_infections)
self.incubating.pass_downstream()
self.infectious.pass_downstream()
diagnosed = self.isolated_holding.pending
if len(self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator) == 0:
diagnagg = diagnosed
else:
diagnagg = self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator[-1] + diagnosed
self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator.append(diagnagg)
self.isolated_holding.pending = 0
subpop_out = []
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
subpop = diagnosed * agegroup.stats.pop_dist
subpop_out.append(subpop)
agegroup.apply_infections(subpop)
agegroup.calculate_redistributions()
self.susceptible.apply_pending()
self.incubating.apply_pending()
self.infectious.apply_pending()
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
agegroup.apply_pending()
self.total_days += 1
def gather_sums(self):
time_increments = len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.scenario.out_susceptible = self.susceptible.domain
self.scenario.out_incubating = self.incubating.domain
self.scenario.out_infectious = self.infectious.domain
self.scenario.sum_isolated = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_noncrit = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_icu = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_icu_vent = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_recovered = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_deceased = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = [0] * time_increments
for key, value in self.subgroups.items():
self.scenario.sum_isolated = np.add(self.scenario.sum_isolated,
value.isolated.domain)
self.scenario.sum_noncrit = np.add(self.scenario.sum_noncrit,
value.h_noncrit.domain)
self.scenario.sum_icu = np.add(self.scenario.sum_icu,
value.h_icu.domain)
self.scenario.sum_icu_vent = np.add(self.scenario.sum_icu_vent,
value.h_icu_vent.domain)
self.scenario.sum_recovered = np.add(self.scenario.sum_recovered,
value.recovered.domain)
self.scenario.sum_deceased = np.add(self.scenario.sum_deceased,
value.deceased.domain)
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = np.add(self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
self.scenario.sum_icu)
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = np.add(self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
self.scenario.sum_noncrit)
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = np.add(self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
self.scenario.sum_icu_vent)
self.scenario.fitset = dict()
cursor = self.scenario.initial_date
stoptime = cursor + timedelta(self.total_days)
itr = 0
while cursor < stoptime:
if cursor not in self.scenario.fitset:
self.scenario.fitset[cursor] = dict()
self.scenario.fitset[cursor][
'current_hosp'] = self.scenario.sum_hospitalized[itr]
self.scenario.fitset[cursor][
'total_hosp'] = self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator[itr]
self.scenario.fitset[cursor][
'total_deceased'] = self.scenario.sum_deceased[itr]
itr += 1
cursor += ONEDAY
def save_results(self, iteration):
result = dict()
result['iteration'] = iteration
result['fitness'] = self.scenario.fitness
result['scenario'] = self.scenario.parameters
result['modelname'] = self.modelname
result['total_days'] = self.total_days
result['totalpop'] = self.population
result['sum_isolated'] = self.scenario.sum_isolated
result['sum_noncrit'] = self.scenario.sum_noncrit
result['sum_icu'] = self.scenario.sum_icu
result['sum_icu_vent'] = self.scenario.sum_icu_vent
result['sum_recovered'] = self.scenario.sum_recovered
result['sum_deceased'] = self.scenario.sum_deceased
with open(f"best_fit{iteration}", "w") as bfi:
json.dump(result, bfi)
def actual_curves(self):
cursor = self.scenario.initial_date
finaldate = cursor + timedelta(self.total_days)
act_hosp = []
act_death = []
while cursor < finaldate:
if cursor in COLORADO_ACTUAL:
act_hosp.append(COLORADO_ACTUAL[cursor]['hospitalized'])
act_death.append(COLORADO_ACTUAL[cursor]['deceased'])
else:
act_hosp.append(None)
act_death.append(None)
cursor += ONEDAY
act_death.append(None)
act_hosp.append(None)
return act_hosp, act_death
def generate_png(self):
hospitalized = self.scenario.hospital_door_aggregator
startdate = self.scenario.initial_date
time_domain = [startdate]
cursor = startdate
for _ in range(0, self.total_days):
cursor += ONEDAY
time_domain.append(cursor)
# time_domain = np.linspace(0, model.total_days, model.total_days + 1)
fig = plt.figure(facecolor='w')
# ax = fig.add_subplot(111, axis_bgcolor='#dddddd', axisbelow=True)
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, axisbelow=True)
### Vertical line indicating today
plt.axvline(x=datetime.today(), alpha=.5, lw=2, label='Today')
#-------------
# Actual numbers, displayed when GA fitting
#-------------
act_hosp, act_death = self.actual_curves()
### Actual Hospitalized, as specified in the constants
ax.plot(time_domain,
act_hosp,
color=(0, 0, .5),
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='Actual Hospitalized',
linestyle='-')
### Actual Deaths, as specified in the constants
ax.plot(time_domain,
act_death,
color=(0, 0, .5),
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='Actual Deaths',
linestyle='-')
#-------------
# Basic SEIR
#-------------
### Susceptible line, usually too tall
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.out_susceptible, label='Susceptible', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=.5, lw=2, linestyle='-')
### Exposed: pre-symptomatic, not infectious yet
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.incubating, label='Exposed', color=TABLEAU_ORANGE, alpha=0.1, lw=2, linestyle='-')
### Infectious patients, not isolated
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.infectious, label='Infected', color=TABLEAU_RED, alpha=0.5, lw=2, linestyle='-')
### Recovered/immune, usually too tall
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_recovered, label='Recovered', color=(0, .5, 0), alpha=.5, lw=2, linestyle='--')
### Infected, isolated at home
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_isolated, label='Home Iso', color=TAB_COLORS[8], alpha=.5, lw=2, linestyle='-')
### Deceased
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_deceased,
label='Deceased',
color=(.25, .25, 0),
alpha=.5,
lw=2,
linestyle='--')
#-------------
# Hospital Capacities
#-------------
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_floor, label='Floor Beds', color=TABLEAU_BLUE, alpha=1, lw=2, linestyle='--')
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_icu, label='ICU Beds', color=TABLEAU_GREEN, alpha=1, lw=2, linestyle='--')
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_vent, label='ICU + Vent Beds', color=TABLEAU_RED, alpha=1, lw=2, linestyle='--')
ax.plot(time_domain,
hospitalized,
label='Total Hospitalized',
color=(1, 0, 0),
alpha=.25,
lw=2,
linestyle='-')
#-------------
# Hospital Capacities - DH Specific
#-------------
# ax.plot(time_domain, [86] * (self.total_days + 1) , label='Supply - DH ICU Beds' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [229] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - DH Total Beds', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
#-------------
# Hospital Capacities - Denver County
#-------------
# ax.plot(time_domain, [695] * (self.total_days + 1) , label='Supply - 5C ICU Beds' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [5907] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C Total Beds', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [1043] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C ICU Beds' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [8861] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C Total Beds', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
#-------------
# Hospital Capacities - Five County
#-------------
# ax.plot(time_domain, [255] * (self.total_days + 1) , label='Supply - 5C ICU Beds' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [1000] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C Total Beds', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [1043] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C ICU Beds' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [4135] * (self.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5C Total Beds', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ------------
# Hospital Capacities - Five County - 50%
# ------------
# ax.plot(time_domain, [348] * (model.total_days + 1) , label='Supply - 5County ICU', color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='--')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [2954] * (model.total_days + 1), label='Supply - 5County Tot', color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [521] * (model.total_days + 1) , label='1.5x 5County ICU' , color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='--')
# ax.plot(time_domain, [4430] * (model.total_days + 1), label='1.5x 5County Tot' , color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, linestyle='-')
#make pretty
# set the style of the axes and the text color
plt.rcParams['axes.edgecolor'] = '#333F4B'
plt.rcParams['axes.linewidth'] = 0.8
plt.rcParams['xtick.color'] = '#333F4B'
plt.rcParams['ytick.color'] = '#333F4B'
plt.rcParams['text.color'] = '#333F4B'
# set axis
ax.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=12)
ax.set_xlabel('Days')
ax.set_ylabel('Number')
chart_title = self.modelname
plt.title(chart_title, fontsize=14)
# ax.set_ylim(0,1.2)
ax.yaxis.set_tick_params(length=4)
ax.xaxis.set_tick_params(length=4)
# ax.grid(b=True, which='minor', c='w', lw=1, ls='--')
ax.grid()
legend = ax.legend()
legend.get_frame().set_alpha(0.5)
for spine in ('top', 'right', 'bottom', 'left'):
ax.spines[spine].set_visible(False)
return plt
def generate_csv(self):
chart_title = self.modelname
outfilename = "_".join(
chart_title.replace("|", " ").replace(":",
" ").replace(".",
" ").split())
# Write a CSV to this directory
with open(f"{outfilename}.csv", 'w') as outfile:
for itr in range(0, len(self.scenario.out_susceptible)):
outfile.write(f"{self.scenario.out_susceptible[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.out_incubating[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.out_infectious[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_isolated[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_noncrit[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_icu[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_icu_vent[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_recovered[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_deceased[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_hospitalized[itr]:.6f}\n")
class PathsByAge:
def __init__(self, subgroupstats, name=None):
self.name = name
self.stats = subgroupstats
# Variables to store state changes
# Probability states
self.isolated = ProbState(TIMINGS['days home isolation'],
name=f"{self.name}: isolated")
self.nevercrit = ProbState(TIMINGS['days noncrit'],
name=f"{self.name}: nevercrit")
self.pre_icu = ProbState(TIMINGS['days preicu'],
name=f"{self.name}: pre_icu")
self.icu_novent = ProbState(TIMINGS['days icu nonvent'],
name=f"{self.name}: icu")
self.icu_vent = ProbState(TIMINGS['days icu vent'],
name=f"{self.name}: icu_vent")
self.post_icu = ProbState(TIMINGS['days posticu'],
name=f"{self.name}: post_icu")
# Recovered and dead are presumed permanent
self.recovered = ProbState(1000, name=f"{self.name}: recovered")
self.deceased = ProbState(1000, name=f"{self.name}: deceased")
self.isolated.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.isolated.normalize_states_over_period()
self.nevercrit.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.nevercrit.normalize_states_over_period()
self.pre_icu.add_exit_state(self.icu_novent, self.stats.p_icu_nonvent)
self.pre_icu.add_exit_state(self.icu_vent, self.stats.p_icu_vent)
self.pre_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
self.icu_novent.add_exit_state(self.deceased, self.stats.p_icu_death)
self.icu_novent.add_exit_state(self.post_icu,
self.stats.p_icu_recovery)
self.icu_novent.normalize_states_over_period()
self.icu_vent.add_exit_state(self.deceased, self.stats.p_icu_death)
self.icu_vent.add_exit_state(self.post_icu, self.stats.p_icu_recovery)
self.icu_vent.normalize_states_over_period()
self.post_icu.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.post_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
def get_floor_counts(self):
retval = []
for itr in range(0, len(self.nevercrit.domain)):
val = self.nevercrit.domain[itr] + self.pre_icu.domain[
itr] + self.post_icu.domain[itr]
retval.append(val)
return retval
def get_icu_counts(self):
retval = []
for itr in range(0, len(self.icu_novent.domain)):
val = self.icu_novent.domain[itr] + self.icu_vent.domain[itr]
retval.append(val)
return retval
# Add N people to the list of infected
def apply_infections(self, infections):
inf_float = float(infections)
n_isolated = inf_float * self.stats.p_selfisolate
n_nevercrit = inf_float * self.stats.p_nevercrit
n_pre_icu = inf_float * self.stats.p_pre_icu
n_icu_vent = inf_float * self.stats.p_urgent_icu_vent
n_icu_novent = inf_float * self.stats.p_urgent_icu_novent
# print(f"Storing infections {self.name}: {n_nevercrit}, {n_pre_icu}, {n_icu_vent}, {n_icu_novent}")
self.isolated.store_pending(n_isolated)
self.nevercrit.store_pending(n_nevercrit)
self.pre_icu.store_pending(n_pre_icu)
self.icu_vent.store_pending(n_icu_vent)
self.icu_novent.store_pending(n_icu_novent)
def calculate_redistributions(self):
self.isolated.pass_downstream()
# self.ed_to_floor.pass_downstream()
# self.ed_to_icu.pass_downstream()
self.nevercrit.pass_downstream()
self.pre_icu.pass_downstream()
self.icu_novent.pass_downstream()
self.icu_vent.pass_downstream()
self.post_icu.pass_downstream()
def apply_pending(self):
self.isolated.apply_pending()
# self.ed_to_floor.apply_pending()
# self.ed_to_icu.apply_pending()
self.nevercrit.apply_pending()
self.pre_icu.apply_pending()
self.icu_novent.apply_pending()
self.icu_vent.apply_pending()
self.post_icu.apply_pending()
self.recovered.apply_pending()
self.deceased.apply_pending()
class HospFloorModel:
def __init__(self, scenario):
if isinstance(scenario, str):
self.scenario = EpiScenario(scenario)
elif isinstance(scenario, EpiScenario):
self.scenario = scenario
self.modelname = self.scenario.modelname
self.total_days = 0
self.r0 = self.scenario.parameters['initial_r0']
self.beta = None
self.population = self.scenario.totalpop
self.susceptible = ProbState(period=0,
count=self.scenario.init_susceptible,
name='susceptible')
self.incubating = ProbState(period=self.scenario.incubation_period,
count=self.scenario.init_infected,
name='incubating')
self.infectious = ProbState(period=self.scenario.prediagnosis,
count=self.scenario.init_infectious,
name='infectious')
self.isolated_holding = ProbState(period=90, name='isolated_holding')
self.incubating.add_exit_state(self.infectious, 1)
self.incubating.normalize_states_over_period()
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.isolated_holding, 1)
self.infectious.normalize_states_over_period()
self.subgroups = dict()
for key, value in self.scenario.subgrouprates.items():
self.subgroups[key] = PathsByAge(value, name=key)
self.fitness = None
def run(self):
self.run_r0_set(self.scenario.r0_date_offsets, self.scenario.r0_values)
def set_r0(self, value):
self.r0 = value
def run_r0_set(self, date_offsets, r0_values):
day_counter = 0
for itr in range(0, len(date_offsets)):
self.set_r0(r0_values[itr])
self.beta = calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)
print(f"{self.beta} = {calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)})")
while day_counter < date_offsets[itr]:
self.step_day()
day_counter += 1
def step_day(self):
new_infections = self.beta * self.susceptible.count * self.infectious.count / self.population
# print(f"Day {self.total_days} infections: {new_infections} = {self.beta} * {self.susceptible.count} * {self.infectious.count} / {self.population}")
self.susceptible.store_pending(-new_infections)
self.incubating.store_pending(new_infections)
self.incubating.pass_downstream()
self.infectious.pass_downstream()
diagnosed = self.isolated_holding.pending
self.isolated_holding.pending = 0
subpop_out = []
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
subpop = diagnosed * agegroup.stats.pop_dist
subpop_out.append(subpop)
agegroup.apply_infections(subpop)
agegroup.calculate_redistributions()
self.susceptible.apply_pending()
self.incubating.apply_pending()
self.infectious.apply_pending()
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
agegroup.apply_pending()
self.total_days += 1
def gather_sums(self):
self.scenario.out_susceptible = self.susceptible.domain
self.scenario.out_incubating = self.incubating.domain
self.scenario.out_infectious = self.infectious.domain
time_increments = len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.scenario.sum_isolated = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_floor = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_icu = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_vent = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_recovered = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_deceased = [0] * time_increments
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = [0] * time_increments
for key, value in self.subgroups.items():
self.scenario.sum_isolated = np.add(self.scenario.sum_isolated,
value.isolated.domain)
self.scenario.sum_floor = np.add(self.scenario.sum_floor,
value.get_floor_counts())
self.scenario.sum_icu = np.add(self.scenario.sum_icu,
value.get_icu_counts())
self.scenario.sum_vent = np.add(self.scenario.sum_vent,
value.icu_vent.domain)
self.scenario.sum_recovered = np.add(self.scenario.sum_recovered,
value.recovered.domain)
self.scenario.sum_deceased = np.add(self.scenario.sum_deceased,
value.deceased.domain)
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = np.add(self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
self.scenario.sum_floor)
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized = np.add(self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
self.scenario.sum_icu)
def calculate_fit(self, ideal):
initial_offset = (ideal['start'] - self.scenario.initial_date).days
fitcount = (ideal['end'] - ideal['start']).days
final_offset = initial_offset + fitcount + 1
cursor = initial_offset
fitcur = 0
hosp = self.scenario.sum_hospitalized
dead = self.scenario.sum_deceased
hosp_sum = 0
hosp_r2 = 0
dead_sum = 0
dead_r2 = 0
while cursor < final_offset:
hosp_sum += hosp[cursor]
dead_sum += hosp[cursor]
hosp_r2 += (hosp[cursor] - ideal['hospitalized'][fitcur])**2
dead_r2 += (dead[cursor] - ideal['deceased'][fitcur])**2
fitcur += 1
cursor += 1
hosp_hold = math.sqrt(hosp_r2)
dead_hold = math.sqrt(dead_r2)
hosp_avg = hosp_sum / fitcount
dead_avg = dead_sum / fitcount
self.scenario.fitness = (hosp_hold / hosp_avg) + (dead_hold / dead_avg)
def save_results(self, iteration):
result = dict()
result['iteration'] = iteration
result['fitness'] = self.fitness
result['scenario'] = self.scenario.parameters
result['modelname'] = self.modelname
result['total_days'] = self.total_days
result['totalpop'] = self.population
result['sum_isolated'] = self.scenario.sum_isolated
result['sum_noncrit'] = self.scenario.sum_noncrit
result['sum_icu'] = self.scenario.sum_icu
result['sum_icu_vent'] = self.scenario.sum_icu_vent
result['sum_recovered'] = self.scenario.sum_recovered
result['sum_deceased'] = self.scenario.sum_deceased
with open(f"best_fit{iteration}", "w") as bfi:
json.dump(result, bfi)
def actual_curves(self):
cursor = self.scenario.initial_date
finaldate = cursor + timedelta(self.scenario.maxdays)
act_hosp = []
act_death = []
while cursor < finaldate:
if cursor in COLORADO_ACTUAL:
act_hosp.append(COLORADO_ACTUAL[cursor]['hospitalized'])
act_death.append(COLORADO_ACTUAL[cursor]['deaths'])
else:
act_hosp.append(None)
act_death.append(None)
cursor += ONEDAY
act_death.append(None)
act_hosp.append(None)
return act_hosp, act_death
def generate_png(self):
startdate = self.scenario.initial_date
time_domain = [startdate]
cursor = startdate
for _ in range(0, self.total_days):
cursor += ONEDAY
time_domain.append(cursor)
# time_domain = np.linspace(0, model.total_days, model.total_days + 1)
fig = plt.figure(facecolor='w')
# ax = fig.add_subplot(111, axis_bgcolor='#dddddd', axisbelow=True)
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, axisbelow=True)
### Lines for comparison to actual
act_hosp, act_death = self.actual_curves()
### Actual Hospitalized, as specified in the constants
ax.plot(time_domain,
act_hosp,
color=(0, 0, .5),
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='Actual Hospitalized',
linestyle='-')
### Actual Deaths, as specified in the constants
ax.plot(time_domain,
act_death,
color=(0, 0, .5),
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='Actual Deaths',
linestyle='-')
### Susceptible line, usually too tall
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.susceptible, color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=.5, lw=2, label='Susceptible', linestyle='-')
### Recovered/immune, usually too tall
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_recovered, color=(0, .5, 0), alpha=.5, lw=2, label='Recovered', linestyle='--')
### Infected patients who aren't infectious yet
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.incubating, color=TABLEAU_ORANGE, alpha=0.1, lw=2, label='Exposed', linestyle='-')
### Infectious patients who don't know they have it
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.infectious, color=TABLEAU_RED, alpha=0.5, lw=2, label='Infected', linestyle='-')
### Known and unknown infected, isolated at home
# ax.plot(time_domain, self.scenario.sum_isolated, color=TAB_COLORS[8], alpha=.5, lw=2, label='Home Iso', linestyle='-')
### Hospital floor patients
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_floor,
color=TABLEAU_BLUE,
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='Noncrit',
linestyle='--')
### Non-ventilated ICU patients
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_icu,
color=TABLEAU_GREEN,
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='ICU',
linestyle='--')
### Ventilated ICU patients
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_vent,
color=TABLEAU_RED,
alpha=1,
lw=2,
label='ICU + Ventilator',
linestyle='--')
### Total hospitalized in all areas
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_hospitalized,
color=(1, 0, 0),
alpha=.25,
lw=2,
label='Total Hospitalized',
linestyle='-')
### Deceased
ax.plot(time_domain,
self.scenario.sum_deceased,
color=(0, 0, 0),
alpha=.5,
lw=2,
label='Dead',
linestyle=':')
### Max non-icu capacity
# ax.plot(time_domain, [229] * (self.total_days + 1), color=(0, 0, 1), alpha=1, lw=1, label='229 Floor beds', linestyle='-')
### Max ICU capacity
# ax.plot(time_domain, [86] * (self.total_days + 1), color=(1, 0, 0), alpha=1, lw=1, label='86 ICU units', linestyle='-')
### Vertical line indicating today
plt.axvline(x=datetime.today(), alpha=.5, lw=2, label='Today')
ax.set_xlabel('Days')
ax.set_ylabel('Number')
chart_title = self.modelname
plt.title(chart_title, fontsize=14)
# ax.set_ylim(0,1.2)
ax.yaxis.set_tick_params(length=4)
ax.xaxis.set_tick_params(length=4)
# ax.grid(b=True, which='minor', c='w', lw=1, ls='--')
ax.grid()
legend = ax.legend()
legend.get_frame().set_alpha(0.5)
for spine in ('top', 'right', 'bottom', 'left'):
ax.spines[spine].set_visible(False)
return plt
def generate_csv(self):
chart_title = self.modelname
outfilename = "_".join(
chart_title.replace("|", " ").replace(":",
" ").replace(".",
" ").split())
# Write a CSV to this directory
with open(f"{outfilename}.csv", 'w') as outfile:
for itr in range(0, len(self.scenario.out_susceptible)):
outfile.write(f"{self.scenario.out_susceptible[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.out_incubating[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.out_infectious[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_isolated[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_floor[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_icu[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_vent[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_recovered[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_deceased[itr]:.6f}, "
f"{self.scenario.sum_hospitalized[itr]:.6f}\n")
class AgeGroup:
def __init__(self, subgroupstats, name=None):
self.name = name
self.stats = subgroupstats
# Variables to store state changes
# Probability states
if self.name is not None:
self.isolated = ProbState(14, name=f"{self.name}: isolated")
else:
self.isolated = ProbState(14)
self.h_noncrit = ProbState(8)
self.h_post_icu = ProbState(6)
self.h_icu = ProbState(10)
self.h_icu_vent = ProbState(10)
self.recovered = ProbState(1000)
self.deceased = ProbState(1000)
self.isolated.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.isolated.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_noncrit.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_noncrit.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.deceased, self.stats.p_icu_death)
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.h_post_icu, self.stats.p_icu_recovery)
self.h_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_icu_vent.add_exit_state(self.deceased, self.stats.p_icu_death)
self.h_icu_vent.add_exit_state(self.h_post_icu, self.stats.p_icu_recovery)
self.h_icu_vent.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_post_icu.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_post_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
# Add N people to the list of infected
def apply_infections(self, infections):
inf_float = float(infections)
self.isolated.store_pending(inf_float * self.stats.p_selfisolate)
self.h_noncrit.store_pending(inf_float * self.stats.p_nevercrit)
self.h_icu.store_pending(inf_float * self.stats.p_icu_nonvent)
self.h_icu_vent.store_pending(inf_float * self.stats.p_icu_vent)
def calculate_redistributions(self):
self.isolated.pass_downstream()
self.h_noncrit.pass_downstream()
self.h_icu.pass_downstream()
self.h_icu_vent.pass_downstream()
def apply_pending(self):
self.isolated.apply_pending()
self.h_noncrit.apply_pending()
self.h_icu.apply_pending()
self.h_icu_vent.apply_pending()
self.recovered.apply_pending()
self.deceased.apply_pending()
class AgeAdjustedModel:
def __init__(self):
self.r0 = 2.65
self.total_days = 0
self.population = POP_DENVER
self.beta = None
self.susceptible = ProbState(period=0,
count=self.population - 1,
name='susceptible')
self.incubating = ProbState(period=3, name='incubating')
self.infectious = ProbState(period=3.8, count=1, name='infectious')
self.isolated_holding = ProbState(period=90, name='isolated_holding')
self.incubating.add_exit_state(self.infectious, 1)
self.incubating.normalize_states_over_period()
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.isolated_holding, 1)
self.infectious.normalize_states_over_period()
self.subgroups = dict()
for key, value in AGE_DISTRIBUTION.items():
self.subgroups[key] = AgeGroup(SubgroupRates(ICD[key], value),
name=key)
self.sum_isolated = None
self.sum_noncrit = None
self.sum_icu = None
self.sum_icu_vent = None
self.sum_recovered = None
self.sum_deceased = None
def gather_sums(self):
# print(f"base:{len(self.susceptible.domain)}")
self.sum_isolated = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.sum_noncrit = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.sum_icu = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.sum_icu_vent = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.sum_recovered = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
self.sum_deceased = [0] * len(self.susceptible.domain)
# print(f"final isolated 0-9:{len(self.subgroups['0-9'].isolated.domain)} {self.subgroups['0-9'].isolated.pending}, {self.subgroups['0-9'].isolated.count}")
for key, value in self.subgroups.items():
# print(f"adding isolated {key}: {self.sum_isolated} {value.isolated.domain}")
self.sum_isolated = np.add(self.sum_isolated,
value.isolated.domain)
self.sum_noncrit = np.add(self.sum_noncrit, value.h_noncrit.domain)
self.sum_icu = np.add(self.sum_icu, value.h_icu.domain)
self.sum_icu_vent = np.add(self.sum_icu_vent,
value.h_icu_vent.domain)
self.sum_recovered = np.add(self.sum_recovered,
value.recovered.domain)
self.sum_deceased = np.add(self.sum_deceased,
value.deceased.domain)
def reset(self):
self.total_days = 0
self.susceptible.reset()
self.susceptible.count = self.population - 1
self.incubating.reset()
self.infectious.reset()
self.infectious.count = 1
self.subgroups = dict()
for key, value in AGE_DISTRIBUTION.items():
self.subgroups[key] = AgeGroup(SubgroupRates(ICD[key], value),
name=key)
def set_r0(self, value):
self.r0 = value
def set_population(self, value):
self.population = value
def run_period(self, days):
# Integrate the SIR equations over the time grid, t.
for _ in range(0, days):
self.step_day()
def run_r0_set(self, date_offsets, r0_values):
self.reset()
day_counter = 0
for itr in range(0, len(date_offsets)):
self.set_r0(r0_values[itr])
self.beta = calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)
while day_counter < date_offsets[itr]:
self.step_day()
day_counter += 1
def step_day(self):
new_infections = self.beta * self.susceptible.count * self.infectious.count / self.population
# print(f"Day {self.total_days}, {self.beta} * {self.susceptible.count} * {self.infectious.count} / {self.population} = {new_infections}")
self.susceptible.store_pending(-new_infections)
self.incubating.store_pending(new_infections)
self.incubating.pass_downstream()
self.infectious.pass_downstream()
diagnosed = self.isolated_holding.pending
self.isolated_holding.pending = 0
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
subpop = diagnosed * agegroup.stats.pop_dist
agegroup.apply_infections(subpop)
agegroup.calculate_redistributions()
self.susceptible.apply_pending()
self.incubating.apply_pending()
self.infectious.apply_pending()
for key, agegroup in self.subgroups.items():
agegroup.apply_pending()
self.total_days += 1
class SEIRHModel:
def __init__(self):
self.r0 = 2.65
self.total_days = 0
self.population = POP_DENVER
self.beta = None
self.susceptible = ProbState(period=0, count=self.population)
self.incubating = ProbState(period=3)
self.infectious = ProbState(period=3.8, count=1)
self.isolated = ProbState(period=14)
self.h_noncritical = ProbState(period=8)
self.h_critical = ProbState(period=6)
self.h_icu = ProbState(period=10)
self.recovered = ProbState(period=10000)
self.dead = ProbState(period=10000)
self.incubating.add_exit_state(self.infectious, 1)
self.incubating.normalize_states_over_period()
self.isolated.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.isolated.normalize_states_over_period()
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.isolated, .85)
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.h_noncritical, .11)
self.infectious.add_exit_state(self.h_critical, .4)
self.infectious.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_noncritical.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_noncritical.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_critical.add_exit_state(self.recovered, 1)
self.h_critical.normalize_states_over_period()
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.recovered, .75)
self.h_icu.add_exit_state(self.dead, .25)
self.h_icu.normalize_states_over_period()
def reset(self):
self.total_days = 0
self.susceptible.reset()
self.susceptible.count = self.population - 1
self.incubating.reset()
self.infectious.reset()
self.infectious.count = 1
self.isolated.reset()
self.h_noncritical.reset()
self.h_critical.reset()
self.h_icu.reset()
self.recovered.reset()
self.dead.reset()
def set_r0(self, value):
self.r0 = value
def set_population(self, value):
self.population = value
def recalculate(self):
self.beta = calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)
def run_period(self, days):
time_domain = np.linspace(0, days, days + 1)
# Initial conditions vector
init = (self.susceptible.count, self.incubating.count,
self.infectious.count, self.isolated.count,
self.h_noncritical.count, self.h_critical.count,
self.h_icu.count, self.recovered.count, self.dead.count)
# Integrate the SIR equations over the time grid, t.
results = odeint(deriv_seirh, init, time_domain, args=(self, ))
(d_susceptible, d_incubating, d_infectious, d_isolated, d_noncritical,
d_critical, d_icu, d_recovered, d_dead) = results.T
self.total_days += days
self.susceptible.extend(d_susceptible)
self.incubating.extend(d_incubating)
self.infectious.extend(d_infectious)
self.isolated.extend(d_isolated)
self.h_noncritical.extend(d_noncritical)
self.h_critical.extend(d_critical)
self.h_icu.extend(d_icu)
self.recovered.extend(d_recovered)
self.dead.extend(d_dead)
def run_r0_set(self, date_offsets, r0_values):
self.reset()
prev_date = 0
for itr in range(0, len(date_offsets)):
self.set_r0(r0_values[itr])
self.beta = calc_beta(self.r0, self.dayspergen)
span = date_offsets[itr] - prev_date + 1
self.run_period(span)
prev_date = date_offsets[itr]