def main():
file = 'E:\\IntegrationTesting\\Predictive-Analytics\\ARMA\datasets\\dataset3.xlsx'
head = 0
sheet = 1
df = readFile(file, head, sheet)
print "Want to plot for blocked connections? : "
plot(df)
df = acf_pacf(df)
#print df
p = raw_input("Enter order of AR model : ")
q = raw_input("Enter order of MA model : ")
#print df, len(df)
arma_pq = sm.tsa.ARMA(df, (int(p),int(q))).fit()
print arma_pq.params, " :Parameters"
print "AIC : {0}, BIC : {1}, HQIC : {2} ".format(arma_pq.aic, arma_pq.bic, arma_pq.hqic)
dw = durbin_watson(arma_pq)
resid = arma_pq.resid
normalTest = normaltest(resid)
print "Printing Q-Q plot"
qqplot(resid)
print "Plotting acf & pacf for residual values"
acf_pacf(resid, 2)
r, q, p = get_acf(resid)
start, end = getStartEnd(df)
predictions = predict(arma_pq, start, end)
mean = meanForecastErr(df.blocked, predictions)
print "Mean error in forecasting : {0}. \nNote that this error is on 1st difference and not actual blocked connections".format(mean)
res = solver(predictions)
print res
def main():
import scipy.stats as ss
print('正态检验',ss.normaltest(ss.norm.rvs(size=10)))#正态检验
print('卡四方表格',ss.chi2_contingency([[15, 95], [85, 5]], False))#卡方四格表
print('独立分布检验',ss.ttest_ind(ss.norm.rvs(size=10), ss.norm.rvs(size=20)))#t独立分布检验
print('F分布检验',ss.f_oneway([49, 50, 39,40,43], [28, 32, 30,26,34], [38,40,45,42,48]))#F分布检验
from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
qqplot(ss.norm.rvs(size=100))#QQ图
plt.show()
s = pd.Series([0.1, 0.2, 1.1, 2.4, 1.3, 0.3, 0.5])
df = pd.DataFrame([[0.1, 0.2, 1.1, 2.4, 1.3, 0.3, 0.5], [0.5, 0.4, 1.2, 2.5, 1.1, 0.7, 0.1]]) #s1,s2
def main():
import scipy.stats as ss
print(ss.normaltest(ss.norm.rvs(size=10))) #正态检验
print(ss.chi2_contingency([[15, 95], [85, 5]], False)) #卡方四格表
print(ss.ttest_ind(ss.norm.rvs(size=10), ss.norm.rvs(size=20))) #t独立分布检验
print(
ss.f_oneway([49, 50, 39, 40, 43], [28, 32, 30, 26, 34],
[38, 40, 45, 42, 48])) #F分布检验
from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
qqplot(ss.norm.rvs(size=100)) #QQ图
plt.show()
s = pd.Series([0.1, 0.2, 1.1, 2.4, 1.3, 0.3, 0.5])
df = pd.DataFrame([[0.1, 0.2, 1.1, 2.4, 1.3, 0.3, 0.5],
[0.5, 0.4, 1.2, 2.5, 1.1, 0.7, 0.1]])
#相关分析
print(s.corr(pd.Series([0.5, 0.4, 1.2, 2.5, 1.1, 0.7, 0.1])))
print(df.corr())
import numpy as np
#回归分析
x = np.arange(10).astype(np.float).reshape((10, 1))
y = x * 3 + 4 + np.random.random((10, 1))
print(x)
print(y)
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
linear_reg = LinearRegression()
reg = linear_reg.fit(x, y)
y_pred = reg.predict(x)
print(reg.coef_)
print(reg.intercept_)
print(y.reshape(1, 10))
print(y_pred.reshape(1, 10))
plt.figure()
plt.plot(x.reshape(1, 10)[0], y.reshape(1, 10)[0], "r*")
plt.plot(x.reshape(1, 10)[0], y_pred.reshape(1, 10)[0])
plt.show()
#PCA降维
df = pd.DataFrame(
np.array([
np.array([2.5, 0.5, 2.2, 1.9, 3.1, 2.3, 2, 1, 1.5, 1.1]),
np.array([2.4, 0.7, 2.9, 2.2, 3, 2.7, 1.6, 1.1, 1.6, 0.9])
]).T)
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
lower_dim = PCA(n_components=1)
lower_dim.fit(df.values)
print("PCA")
print(lower_dim.explained_variance_ratio_)
print(lower_dim.explained_variance_)
def drawPIT(self, data, cdf, xlabel, ylabel, title, isSave, savePath,
isShow):
lw = 4
fontsize = 40
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 12))
axs = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(data, dist=cdf, line='45', ax=axs)
deta = 1.358 / (len(data))**0.5 * (2**0.5)
axs.plot([deta, 1], [0, 1 - deta],
'--',
color='blueviolet',
lw=lw,
label='Kolmogorov 5% significance band')
axs.plot([0, 1 - deta], [deta, 1], '--', color='blueviolet', lw=lw)
axs.set_title(title, loc="center", fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_xlabel(xlabel, fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_ylabel(ylabel, fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_xlim([0, 1])
axs.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.xticks(fontsize=fontsize)
plt.yticks(fontsize=fontsize)
plt.grid()
plt.legend(fontsize=25)
if isShow:
plt.show()
if isSave:
fig.savefig(savePath, bbox_inches="tight", dpi=300)
plt.close()
def residue_test(residue):
'''
观察ARIMA模型的残差是否是平均值为0且方差为常数的正态分布
'''
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
# ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
# fig = plot_acf(residue.values.squeeze(), lags=35, ax=ax1)
# plt.show()
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = plot_pacf(residue.values.squeeze(), lags=35, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
# 通过q-q图观察，检验残差是否符合正态分布
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(residue, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
plt.show()
# Ljung-Box Test - 基于一些列滞后阶数，判断序列总体的相关性或随机性是否存在
r1, q1, p1 = ACF(residue.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
tmp = np.c_[list(range(1, 36)), r1[1:], q1, p1]
table = pd.DataFrame(tmp, columns=['lag', 'AC', 'Q', 'Prob(>Q)'])
print(table.set_index('lag')[:15])
# 残差的白噪声检验
print('残差的白噪声检验结果为：', acorr_ljungbox(residue, lags=1))
def valid_model(data):
"""
模型检验
:param data:
:return:
"""
arma_mod80 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (8, 0)).fit()
resid = arma_mod80.resid
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(data, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(data, lags=40, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod80.resid.values))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
plt.show()
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', 'AC', 'Q', 'Prob(>Q)'])
print(table.set_index('lag'))
def check_norm_qq(self, ):
norm = stats.normaltest(arma_mod.resid)
print norm
figure003 = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
ax5 = figure003.add_subplot(111)
figqq = qqplot(arma_mod.resid, ax=ax5, fit=True, line='q')
plt.show()
def analise_model(arma_mod):
plot_model(arma_mod)
resid = arma_mod.resid
print(scipy.stats.normaltest(resid))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
def ARMA_model(train, order):
arma_model = ARMA(train, order) # ARMA模型
result = arma_model.fit() # 激活模型
print(result.summary()) # 给出一份模型报告
############ in-sample ############
pred = result.predict()
pred.plot()
train.plot()
print('标准差为{}'.format(mean_squared_error(train, pred)))
# 残差
resid = result.resid
# 利用QQ图检验残差是否满足正态分布
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
qqplot(resid, line='q', fit=True)
plt.show()
# 利用D-W检验,检验残差的自相关性
print('D-W检验值为{}'.format(durbin_watson(resid.values)))
return result
def seasonal_detect(ts, trend, seasonal, residual):
"""直接对残差进行分析，我们检查残差的稳定性"""
ts_decompose = residual
ts_decompose.dropna(inplace=True)
test_stationarity(ts_decompose)
print('---------------------------------------------')
fig = plt.figure
fig = qqplot(residual, line='q', fit=True)
fig.title('qqplot of residual')
plt.show()
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
#ts
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(ts, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax1.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
fig.tight_layout()
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(ts, lags=40, ax=ax2)
ax2.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
plt.savefig('ts_aacf_pacf.jpg', dpi=300)
plt.show()
fig.tight_layout()
print('-----------------------------------------------')
#trend
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(trend, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax1.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
fig.tight_layout()
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(trend, lags=40, ax=ax2)
ax2.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
plt.savefig('trend_acf_pacf.jpg', dpi=300)
plt.show()
fig.tight_layout()
print('-----------------------------------------------')
#seasonal
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(seasonal, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax1.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
fig.tight_layout()
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(seasonal, lags=40, ax=ax2)
ax2.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
plt.savefig('season_acf_pacf.jpg', dpi=300)
plt.show()
fig.tight_layout()
def arima_handler(dta, start, end):
#dta, x = data.dataHandler('./tmpfile00431',0.5)
dta = pd.TimeSeries(dta)
#dta.index = pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range('1700','2060'))
dta.index = pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range(start, end))
dta.plot(figsize=(12, 8))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(dta.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(dta, lags=40, ax=ax2)
arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (2, 0)).fit()
#print(arma_mod20)
arma_mod30 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (3, 0)).fit()
#print(arma_mod30)
print(arma_mod20.aic, arma_mod20.bic, arma_mod20.hqic)
print(arma_mod30.aic, arma_mod30.bic, arma_mod30.hqic)
if arma_mod20.aic < arma_mod30.aic:
sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod20.resid.values)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod20.resid.plot(ax=ax)
resid = arma_mod20.resid
stats.normaltest(resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
#table = pandas.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
#print(table.set_index('lag'))
predict_sunspots = arma_mod20.predict(str(string.atoi(start) + 360),
str(string.atoi(end) + 5),
dynamic=True)
#print(predict_sunspots)
return predict_sunspots
def arima_handler(dta, start, end):
#dta, x = data.dataHandler('./tmpfile00431',0.5)
dta = pd.TimeSeries(dta)
#dta.index = pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range('1700','2060'))
dta.index = pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range(start,end))
dta.plot(figsize=(12,8))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(dta.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(dta, lags=40, ax=ax2)
arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (2,0)).fit()
#print(arma_mod20)
arma_mod30 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (3,0)).fit()
#print(arma_mod30)
print(arma_mod20.aic, arma_mod20.bic, arma_mod20.hqic)
print(arma_mod30.aic, arma_mod30.bic, arma_mod30.hqic)
if arma_mod20.aic < arma_mod30.aic:
sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod20.resid.values)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod20.resid.plot(ax=ax);
resid = arma_mod20.resid
stats.normaltest(resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
r,q,p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1,41), r[1:], q, p]
#table = pandas.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
#print(table.set_index('lag'))
predict_sunspots = arma_mod20.predict(str(string.atoi(start)+360),str(string.atoi(end)+5), dynamic=True)
#print(predict_sunspots)
return predict_sunspots
def processData(self,p,q):
self.arma_mod = sm.tsa.ARMA(self.data, (p,q)).fit()
print("AIC:",str(self.arma_mod.aic))
print("BIC:",str(self.arma_mod.bic))
print("HQIC:",str(self.arma_mod.hqic))
resid = self.arma_mod.resid
print("DW value:",sm.stats.durbin_watson(resid.values))
fig = figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(311)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(312)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
ax = fig.add_subplot(313)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
show()
def testModelFit(arma_mod30, dta):
# does our model fit the theory?
residuals = arma_mod30.resid
sm.stats.durbin_watson(residuals.values)
# NOTE: Durbin Watson Test Statistic approximately equal to 2*(1-r)
# where r is the sample autocorrelation of the residuals.
# Thus, for r == 0, indicating no serial correlation,
# the test statistic equals 2. This statistic will always be
# between 0 and 4. The closer to 0 the statistic, the more evidence
# for positive serial correlation. The closer to 4, the more evidence
# for negative serial correlation.
# plot the residuals so we can see if there are any areas in time which
# are poorly explained.
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod30.resid.plot(ax=ax)
plt.savefig(config.plot_dir + 'ARIMAX_test_residualsVsTime.png',
bbox_inches='tight')
# plt.show()
# tests if samples are different from normal dist.
k2, p = stats.normaltest(residuals)
print("residuals skew (k2):" + str(k2) +
" fit w/ normal dist (p-value): " + str(p))
# plot residuals
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = qqplot(residuals, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
# resid_dev = residuals.resid_deviance.copy()
# resid_std = (resid_dev - resid_dev.mean()) / resid_dev.std()
plt.hist(residuals, bins=25)
plt.title('Histogram of standardized deviance residuals')
plt.savefig(config.plot_dir + 'ARIMAX_test_residualsNormality.png',
bbox_inches='tight')
plt.clf()
# plot ACF/PACF for residuals
plotACFAndPACF(residuals, 'residualsACFAndPACF.png')
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(residuals.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pandas.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print(table.set_index('lag'))
def ARIMA_modeling(data, order, test):
tempModel = ARIMA(data.values, order).fit() # fit the value into model
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
print("QQ plot of residuals (should be like a straight line)")
fig = qqplot(tempModel.resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
print("######################")
noiseRes = acorr_ljungbox(tempModel.resid, lags=1)
print("result of residual's white noice testing (should be very large)")
print('stat | p-value')
for x in noiseRes:
print(
x,
'|',
)
print("######################")
predicts = tempModel.forecast(steps=len(test))[0]
pred_CI = tempModel.forecast(steps=len(test))[2]
low, high = [], []
for i in range(len(pred_CI)):
low.append(pred_CI[i][0])
high.append(pred_CI[i][1])
comp = pd.DataFrame()
comp['original'] = test
comp['predict'] = predicts
comp['low'] = low
comp['high'] = high
comp.plot()
print("######################")
rms = sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predicts))
print('mean squared error: ', rms)
print("######################")
q = (abs(comp['original'] - comp['predict']) / comp['original']) * 100
print(q)
print('average MAPE: ', np.mean(abs(q)), '%')
print('If MAPE is "Inf", it because the test data contains 0')
print("######################")
q1 = (abs(comp['original'] - comp['predict']) /
((comp['original'] + comp['predict']) / 2)) * 100
print(q1)
print('average Symmetric MAPE: ', np.mean(abs(q1)), '%')
def testModelFit(arma_mod30, dta):
# does our model fit the theory?
residuals = arma_mod30.resid
sm.stats.durbin_watson(residuals.values)
# NOTE: Durbin Watson Test Statistic approximately equal to 2*(1-r)
# where r is the sample autocorrelation of the residuals.
# Thus, for r == 0, indicating no serial correlation,
# the test statistic equals 2. This statistic will always be
# between 0 and 4. The closer to 0 the statistic, the more evidence
# for positive serial correlation. The closer to 4, the more evidence
# for negative serial correlation.
# plot the residuals so we can see if there are any areas in time which
# are poorly explained.
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod30.resid.plot(ax=ax);
plt.savefig(FIG_DIR+'residualsVsTime.png', bbox_inches='tight')
# plt.show()
# tests if samples are different from normal dist.
k2, p = stats.normaltest(residuals)
print ("residuals skew (k2):" + str(k2) +
" fit w/ normal dist (p-value): " + str(p))
# plot residuals
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = qqplot(residuals, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
# resid_dev = residuals.resid_deviance.copy()
# resid_std = (resid_dev - resid_dev.mean()) / resid_dev.std()
plt.hist(residuals, bins=25);
plt.title('Histogram of standardized deviance residuals');
plt.savefig(FIG_DIR+'residualsNormality.png', bbox_inches='tight')
# plot ACF/PACF for residuals
plotACFAndPACF(residuals, 'residualsACFAndPACF.png')
r,q,p = sm.tsa.acf(residuals.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1,41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pandas.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print table.set_index('lag')
def residual_test(residual, lags=31):
# plot acf and pacf
fig = plt.figure(facecolor='white')
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = plot_acf(residual.values.squeeze(), lags=lags, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = plot_pacf(residual, lags=lags, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
# Durbin-Watson test: 2, no autocorrelation; 4: negtive autocorrelation; 0: positive autocorrelation
#print sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_moddel.resid.values)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(residual, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
plt.show()
ljung_box_test(residual)
def tsdiag( resid ):
'''
展示模型检验的结果
:param resid:
:return:
'''
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8));
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(311);
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1);
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(312);
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2);
ax3 = fig.add_subplot(313);
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax3, fit=True)
plt.show();
def rosen(x):
return sum(100.0*(x[1:]-x[:-1]**2.0)**2.0 + (1-x[:-1])**2.0)
x0 = np.array([1.3, 0.7, 0.8, 1.9, 1.2])
res = minimize(rosen, x0, method='nelder-mead',
options={'xtol': 1e-8, 'disp': True})
print(res.x)
import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
star98 = sm.datasets.star98.load_pandas().data
formula = 'SUCCESS ~ LOWINC + PERASIAN + PERBLACK + PERHISP + PCTCHRT + \
PCTYRRND + PERMINTE*AVYRSEXP*AVSALK + PERSPENK*PTRATIO*PCTAF'
dta = star98[['NABOVE', 'NBELOW', 'LOWINC', 'PERASIAN', 'PERBLACK', 'PERHISP',
'PCTCHRT', 'PCTYRRND', 'PERMINTE', 'AVYRSEXP', 'AVSALK',
'PERSPENK', 'PTRATIO', 'PCTAF']].copy()
endog = dta['NABOVE'] / (dta['NABOVE'] + dta.pop('NBELOW'))
del dta['NABOVE']
dta['SUCCESS'] = endog
mod1 = smf.glm(formula=formula, data=dta, family=sm.families.Binomial()).fit()
print(mod1.summary())
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot
print(sm.datasets.sunspots.NOTE)
arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (2,0)).fit(disp=False)
print(arma_mod20.params)
arma_mod30 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (3,0)).fit(disp=False)
resid = arma_mod30.resid
stats.normaltest(resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
predict_sunspots = arma_mod30.predict('1990', '2012', dynamic=True)
print(predict_sunspots)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = dta.ix['1950':].plot(ax=ax)
fig = arma_mod30.plot_predict('1990', '2012', dynamic=True, ax=ax, plot_insample=False)
def model_detect(result):
"""模型检验"""
import statsmodels.api as sm
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(result.resid.values.squeeze(),
lags=40,
ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(result.resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(result.resid.values))
#检验结果是1.93206697832，说明不存在自相关性。
resid = result.resid #残差
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
plt.show()
def check_resid_wd_acf_pacf_qq(model):
"""残差白噪声序列检验、计算D-W检验的结果,越接近于2效果就好"""
resid = model.resid
print(stats.normaltest(resid))
print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(resid))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 4))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print(table.set_index('lag'))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = plot_acf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
def drawPIT(data,
cdf=stats.uniform,
xlabel="uniform distribution",
ylabel="PIT",
title="",
isShow=False,
isSave=False,
savePath=None):
lw = 4
fontsize = 40
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(16, 16))
axs = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(data, dist=cdf, line='45', ax=axs)
deta = 1.358 / (len(data))**0.5 * (2**0.5)
axs.plot([deta, 1], [0, 1 - deta],
'--',
color='blueviolet',
lw=lw,
label='Kolmogorov 5% significance band')
axs.plot([0, 1 - deta], [deta, 1], '--', color='blueviolet', lw=lw)
axs.set_title(title, loc="center", fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_xlabel(xlabel, fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_ylabel(ylabel, fontsize=fontsize)
axs.set_xlim([0, 1])
axs.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.xticks(fontsize=fontsize)
plt.yticks(fontsize=fontsize)
plt.grid()
plt.legend(fontsize=25)
if isShow:
plt.show()
dirPath = os.path.dirname(savePath)
if not os.path.exists(dirPath):
os.makedirs(dirPath)
if isSave:
fig.savefig(savePath, bbox_inches="tight", dpi=300)
plt.close()
print(u'模型ARIMA(%s,1,%s)符合白噪声检验' % (p, q)) #残差的自相关图 fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8)) ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211) fig = plot_acf(pred_error, ax=ax1) ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212) fig = plot_pacf(pred_error, ax=ax2) fig.show() #D-W检验 print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(pred_error)) #绘制qq图 fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8)) fig = qqplot(pred_error, line='q', fit=True) fig.show() ###不同差分次数的精度 ##print(ARIMA(dta, (p,0,q)).fit().bic) ##print(ARIMA(dta, (p,1,q)).fit().bic) ## ##print(ARIMA(dta, (p,0,q)).fit().aic) ##print(ARIMA(dta, (p,1,q)).fit().aic) ###print(ARIMA(dta, (p,2,q)).fit().aic) #MA系数不可逆 ## ###差分比较 ##fig1 = plt.figure(figsize=(8,7)) ##ax1= fig1.add_subplot(211) ##diff1 = dta.diff(1) ##diff1.plot(ax=ax1)
def armia(id, product, predicted):
flag = True #whethe the model fail to find the params
#1.data prepocessing
sale_per_product = product[str(id)]
data = np.array(sale_per_product, dtype=np.float)
src = data
data = pd.Series(data)
data.index = pd.Index(np.arange(118))
data.plot(figsize=(12, 8))
plt.title("product_" + str(id))
if visible:
plt.show()
#2.时间序列的差分d
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(111)
diff = data.diff(1)
diff.plot(ax=ax1)
plt.title("diff" + str(id))
if visible:
plt.show()
#3.find the proper p and q
#3.1 model selection
p_, d_, q_ = grid_search(data, search_mode)
print((p_, d_, q_))
info = []
info.append(str(id))
with open("log.txt", 'w+') as f:
f.writelines(info)
#f.writelines(sale_per_product)
try:
arma_mod = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, order=(p_, d_, q_)).fit()
except:
p_, d_, q_ = grid_search(data, "error")
arma_mod = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, order=(p_, d_, q_)).fit()
flag = False
#3.2 check the res
resid = arma_mod.resid
#print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(resid.values))
#3.3 if normal distribution
#print(stats.normaltest(resid))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
# plt.show()
# 3.5残差序列检验
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
rdata = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(rdata, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
#print(table.set_index('lag'))
predict_dta = arma_mod.predict(117, 144, dynamic=True)
predicted[str(id)] = np.array(predict_dta)
print(predict_dta)
print((p_, d_, q_))
plt.subplot(111)
all = np.concatenate((src, np.array(predict_dta).astype(int)))
plt.plot(np.arange(all.size), all)
plt.title("whole sale of the product")
if visible:
plt.show()
return flag
'''''' '''
# 3.prediction
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = data.ix[0:].plot(ax=ax)
fig = arma_mod.plot_predict(117, 144, dynamic=True, ax=ax, plot_insample=False)
plt.legend([ax,fig],["previous sale","predicted sale"],loc='upper right')
plt.title('whole sale of the product')
#plt.show()
''' ''''''
plt.ylabel('Correlation')
plt.title('Log(Return) Autocorrelation')
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(stock_data['log_ret'].values.squeeze(), lags=60, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
plt.title('Log(Return) Pacf')
plt.xlabel('Lag (Business Days)')
plt.ylabel('Correlation')
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(stock_data['log_ret'], lags=60, ax=ax2)
plt.figtext(0.5, 0.95,'Daily Return Correllations by Date')
plt.savefig('stock_logregcorr.png')
sys.exit()
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
plt.title('qq plot of the log(return)')
qqplot(stock_data['log_ret'], line='q', ax=plt.gca(), fit=True)
plt.savefig('logrec_qq.png')
train_arr = get_pred_arr(stock_data)
test_arr =get_pred_arr(test_data)
scaler = preprocessing.StandardScaler().fit(train_arr)
sctrain_arr = scaler.transform(train_arr)
sctest_arr = scaler.transform(test_arr)
from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split
stock_train, stock_cv, true_train, true_cv = train_test_split(sctrain_arr, stock_data['log_ret'].fillna(method='backfill').values, test_size=0.33, random_state=42)
# reweight outliers
weighter_scale = preprocessing.StandardScaler().fit(true_train)
train_weight_outliers = 5.0*np.abs(weighter_scale.transform(true_train))+1
plt.show()
# In[6]:
#残差的ACF和PACF图，可以看到序列残差基本为白噪声
#进一步进行D-W检验，是目前检验自相关性最常用的方法，但它只使用于检验一阶自相关性。
#DW＝４＜＝＞ρ＝－１ 即存在负自相关性
#DW＝２＜＝＞ρ＝０ 即不存在（一阶）自相关性
#因此，当DW值显著的接近于O或４时，则存在自相关性，而接近于２时，则不存在（一阶）自相关性。
print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(ar10.resid.values))
#观察是否符合正态分布,这里使用QQ图，它用于直观验证一组数据是否来自某个分布，或者验证某两组数据是否来自同一（族）分布。
print(stats.normaltest(resid))
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', fit=True)
plt.show()
#结果表明基本符合正态分布
# In[7]:
predict_dta = ar10.forecast(steps=5)
import datetime
fig = ar10.plot_predict(
pd.to_datetime('2017-01-01') + datetime.timedelta(days=190),
pd.to_datetime('2017-01-01') + datetime.timedelta(days=220),
dynamic=False,
plot_insample=True)
plt.show()
# In[8]:
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod30.resid.plot(ax=ax);
# <codecell>
resid = arma_mod30.resid
# <codecell>
stats.normaltest(resid)
# <codecell>
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
# <codecell>
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
# <codecell>
r,q,p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
data = np.c_[range(1,41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pandas.DataFrame(data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print table.set_index('lag')
# In[74]:
z, p = stats.normaltest(result.resid.values)
# In[75]:
p
# In[76]:
result.params
# In[77]:
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 4))
smg.qqplot(result.resid, ax=ax)
fig.tight_layout()
fig.savefig("ch14-qqplot-model-1.pdf")
# In[78]:
model = smf.ols("y ~ x1 + x2 + x1*x2", data)
# In[79]:
result = model.fit()
# In[80]:
print(result.summary())
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(stock_data['log_ret'].values.squeeze(),
lags=60,
ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
plt.title('Log(Return) Pacf')
plt.xlabel('Lag (Business Days)')
plt.ylabel('Correlation')
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(stock_data['log_ret'], lags=60, ax=ax2)
plt.figtext(0.5, 0.95, 'Daily Return Correllations by Date')
plt.savefig('stock_logregcorr.png')
sys.exit()
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
plt.title('qq plot of the log(return)')
qqplot(stock_data['log_ret'], line='q', ax=plt.gca(), fit=True)
plt.savefig('logrec_qq.png')
train_arr = get_pred_arr(stock_data)
test_arr = get_pred_arr(test_data)
scaler = preprocessing.StandardScaler().fit(train_arr)
sctrain_arr = scaler.transform(train_arr)
sctest_arr = scaler.transform(test_arr)
from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split
stock_train, stock_cv, true_train, true_cv = train_test_split(
sctrain_arr,
stock_data['log_ret'].fillna(method='backfill').values,
test_size=0.33,
random_state=42)
# * Does our model obey the theory?
sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod30.resid.values)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
ax = arma_mod30.resid.plot(ax=ax)
resid = arma_mod30.resid
stats.normaltest(resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line="q", ax=ax, fit=True)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), fft=True, qstat=True)
data = np.c_[np.arange(1, 25), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=["lag", "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print(table.set_index("lag"))
# * This indicates a lack of fit.
# Load in the image for Subject 1.
img = nib.load(pathtodata + "BOLD/task001_run001/bold.nii.gz")
data = img.get_data()
data = data[..., 6:] # Knock off the first 6 observations.
# Pull out a single voxel.
voxel = data[41, 47, 2]
plt.plot(voxel)
plt.close()
# Sort of a curve = nonconstant mean.
# Variance also seems to be funky toward the ends.
plt.hist(voxel)
plt.close()
# Long right tail.
qqplot(voxel, line='q')
plt.close()
# More-or-less normal, with deviations at tails.
# Box-Cox method to find best power transformation.
bc = stats.boxcox(voxel)
bc[1] # Lambda pretty close to 0, so try log transformation.
print("Log transforming data.")
# Log transform the data.
lvoxel = np.log(voxel)
plt.plot(lvoxel)
plt.close()
plt.hist(lvoxel)
plt.close()
qqplot(lvoxel, line='q')
def plot_qqplot(arma_mod): fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8)) ax = fig.add_subplot(111) fig = qqplot(arma_mod.resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True) plt.show()
# Load in the image for Subject 1.
img = nib.load(pathtodata + "BOLD/task001_run001/bold.nii.gz")
data = img.get_data()
data = data[..., 6:] # Knock off the first 6 observations.
# Pull out a single voxel.
voxel = data[41, 47, 2]
plt.plot(voxel)
plt.close()
# Sort of a curve = nonconstant mean.
# Variance also seems to be funky toward the ends.
plt.hist(voxel)
plt.close()
# Long right tail.
qqplot(voxel, line="q")
plt.close()
# More-or-less normal, with deviations at tails.
# Box-Cox method to find best power transformation.
bc = stats.boxcox(voxel)
bc[1] # Lambda pretty close to 0, so try log transformation.
print("Log transforming data.")
# Log transform the data.
lvoxel = np.log(voxel)
plt.plot(lvoxel)
plt.close()
plt.hist(lvoxel)
plt.close()
qqplot(lvoxel, line="q")
def qqplot(resid):
from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax = ax, fit = True)
pylab.show()
def predict_arma(number, index, data, original_index, original_data):
# axes list
ax = []
# difference list
diff = []
# order number
order_num = 5
# Set the index as date type
df = pd.DataFrame({
'year': 1999,
'month': 3,
'day': 1,
'minute': index * 5
})
original_df = pd.DataFrame({
'year': 1999,
'month': 3,
'day': 1,
'minute': original_index * 5
})
# print pd.to_datetime(df)
data = pd.Series(data, index=pd.to_datetime(df))
original_data = pd.Series(original_data, index=pd.to_datetime(original_df))
# data = pd.Series(data, index=pd.to_datetime(index, unit='m'))
# print data
fig = plt.figure("Differences of Diverse Orders in Day %s" % number,
figsize=(10, 4 * order_num))
# Show differences with i-order
# for i in range(1, order_num + 1):
# ax.append(fig.add_subplot(order_num, 1, i))
# # Get the difference of time series, which is
# # the d parameter of ARIMA(p, d, q)
# diff.append(data.diff(i))
# # Plot the i-order of difference
# diff[i - 1].plot(ax=ax[i - 1])
# # After observation, choose first-order difference
order = 1
data = data.diff(order)
original_data = original_data.diff(order)
print data
print original_data
# "data[0]=NaN" causes the autocorrelation figure shows abnormally
for i in range(order):
data[i] = 0.0
original_data[i] = 0.0
# autocorrelation_plot(data)
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(data, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(data, lags=40, ax=ax2)
#==================================
# arma_mod70 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (7, 0)).fit()
arma_mod = []
row = 3
col = 3
# ARMA(0, 2) is the best
for i in range(row):
temp = []
for j in range(col):
temp.append(sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (i, j)).fit())
arma_mod.append(temp)
for i in range(row):
for j in range(col):
print(arma_mod[i][j].aic, arma_mod[i][j].bic, arma_mod[i][j].hqic)
#==================================
# get the mininal value of aic/bic
res = sm.tsa.arma_order_select_ic(data, ic=['aic', 'bic'], trend='nc')
# print res.aic_min_order
# print res.bic_min_order
# arma_mod00 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (0, 0)).fit()
# arma_mod01 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (0, 1)).fit()
# arma_mod02 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (0, 2)).fit()
# arma_mod10 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (1, 0)).fit()
# arma_mod11 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (1, 1)).fit()
# arma_mod12 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (1, 2)).fit()
# arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (2, 0)).fit()
# arma_mod21 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (2, 1)).fit()
# arma_mod22 = sm.tsa.ARMA(data, (2, 2)).fit()
# print(arma_mod00.aic, arma_mod00.bic, arma_mod00.hqic)
# print(arma_mod01.aic, arma_mod01.bic, arma_mod01.hqic)
# print(arma_mod02.aic, arma_mod02.bic, arma_mod02.hqic)
# print(arma_mod10.aic, arma_mod10.bic, arma_mod10.hqic)
# print(arma_mod11.aic, arma_mod11.bic, arma_mod11.hqic)
# print(arma_mod12.aic, arma_mod12.bic, arma_mod12.hqic)
# print(arma_mod20.aic, arma_mod20.bic, arma_mod20.hqic)
# print(arma_mod21.aic, arma_mod21.bic, arma_mod21.hqic)
# print(arma_mod22.aic, arma_mod22.bic, arma_mod22.hqic)
# Autocorrelation for ARMA(0, 2)
# fit model
# model = ARIMA(data_bak, order=(1, 1, 0))
# model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)
# print model_fit.summary()
# # plot residual errors
# residuals = DataFrame( model_fit.resid )
# residuals.plot()
# residuals.plot(kind='kde')
# print residuals.describe()
# row = 3
# col = 3
# model = []
# model_fit = []
# for i in range(row):
# temp = []
# for j in range(col):
# # print(i, j)
# temp.append(ARIMA(data_bak, order=(i, 1, j)))
# model.append(temp)
# for i in range(row):
# temp = []
# for j in range(col):
# print(i, j)
# # print model[i][j].fit(disp=0).summary()
# temp.append(model[i][j].fit(disp=0))
# model_fit.append(temp)
# for i in range(row):
# for j in range(col):
# print model_fit[i][j].summary()
# # plot residual errors
# residuals = DataFrame(model_fit[i][j].resid)
# residuals.plot()
# residuals.plot(kind='kde')
# print residuals.describe()
# plot autocorrelation of residual errors
# predict_model = arma_mod[0][2]
predict_model = arma_mod[res.aic_min_order[0]][res.aic_min_order[1]]
resid = predict_model.resid
fig = plt.figure("Autocorrelation of residuals", figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid.values.squeeze(), lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
# Durbin-Watson Exam
# DW is in [0, 4], where
# DW = 4 <=> p(rou) = -1, DW = 2 <=> p(rou) = 0, DW = 0 <=> p(rou) = 1
print(sm.stats.durbin_watson(resid.values))
# Check the data are from the same distribution or not
fig = plt.figure("Check for the data validation", figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
# Ljung-Box Exam
r, q, p = sm.tsa.acf(resid.values.squeeze(), qstat=True)
lb_data = np.c_[range(1, 41), r[1:], q, p]
table = pd.DataFrame(lb_data, columns=['lag', "AC", "Q", "Prob(>Q)"])
print(table.set_index('lag'))
# Prediction with arma model
begin_time = str(pd.to_datetime(df)[len(index) - 1])
end_time = str(pd.to_datetime(original_df)[len(original_index) - 1])
# print pd.to_datetime(df)[len(index)-1]
# print pd.to_datetime(original_df)[len(original_index)-1]
predict_sunspots = predict_model.predict(begin_time,
end_time,
dynamic=True)
print predict_sunspots
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 3))
ax = original_data.ix['1999-03-01 00:00:00':].plot(ax=ax)
predict_sunspots.plot(ax=ax)
# 计算ARMA模型的评估准则
arma_mod = sm.tsa.ARMA(time_series, (1, 1)).fit()
print('AIC:', arma_mod.aic, 'BIC:', arma_mod.bic, 'HQIC:', arma_mod.hqic)
# ARMA模型回归的诊断
resid = list(arma_mod.resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
fig = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(resid, lags=40, ax=ax2)
plt.show()
# Durbin-Watson检验值
print('Durbin-Watson:', sm.stats.durbin_watson(arma_mod.resid))
# 残差QQ图
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(np.array(resid), line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
plt.show()
# 新的预测序列值，对应于一阶差分的计算
predict = arma_mod.predict(N_history - 1, N_history + 3, dynamic=True)
print(predict)
predict = predict.cumsum() # 不用差分时两行注释掉
predict = time_series_ori[-1] + predict
print(predict)
time_series_ori_predict = np.r_[time_series_ori, predict]
plt.plot(range(len(time_series_ori)), time_series_ori, 'b')
plt.plot(range(len(time_series_ori), len(time_series_ori) + 5), predict, 'r')
plt.show()
plt.subplots_adjust(hspace=0.4)
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)
plt.xlabel('Lag (Business Days)')
plt.ylabel('Correlation')
plt.title('Residual Volume Autocorrelation')
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(stock_data['ARMAResid'].values.squeeze(), lags=60, ax=ax1)
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)
plt.title('Residual Volume Pacf')
plt.xlabel('Lag (Business Days)')
plt.ylabel('Correlation')
sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(stock_data['ARMAResid'], lags=60, ax=ax2)
plt.savefig('volume_ARMAresidcorr.png')
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8))
plt.title('qq plot of the ARMA Volume Residual')
qqplot(stock_data['ARMAResid'], line='q', ax=plt.gca(), fit=True)
plt.savefig('volARMAresid_qq.png')
error_figure(stock_data, 'ARMAResid', 'ARMAPredictVolume',
'ARMANormResids','ARMA Only')
plt.savefig('ARMA_stock_residual_panel.png')
error_figure(test_data, 'ARMAResid', 'ARMAPredictVolume',
'ARMANormResids','ARMA Only')
plt.savefig('ARMA_test_residual_panel.png')
plt.close('all')
train_arr = get_pred_arr(stock_data)
test_arr =get_pred_arr(test_data)
scaler = preprocessing.StandardScaler().fit(train_arr)
# Fit an ARIMA model
# In[39]:
arma_mod20 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (2, 0)).fit(disp=False)
print(arma_mod20.params) #arma自回归移动平均
# In[40]:
arma_mod30 = sm.tsa.ARMA(dta, (3, 0)).fit(disp=False)
resid = arma_mod30.resid
stats.normaltest(resid)
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
fig = qqplot(resid, line='q', ax=ax, fit=True)
#resid残差项
#qqplot绘制qq图
# Let's then do some predictions
# In[41]:
predict_sunspots = arma_mod30.predict('1990', '2012', dynamic=True)
print(predict_sunspots)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
ax = dta.ix['1950':].plot(ax=ax)
fig = arma_mod30.plot_predict('1990',
'2012',
dynamic=True,
ax=ax,
import tushare as ts
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm
data = ts.get_k_data('600858', start='2016-02-05',end='2016-06-05')
share_change=data['close']-data['open']
share_change.index=pd.Index(sm.tsa.datetools.dates_from_range('1','78'))
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller #检测序列平稳性，单位根检验。
dftest = adfuller(share_change, autolag='AIC')
print(dftest[1])#在保证ADF检验的p<0.01的情况下，阶数越小越好
from statsmodels.stats.diagnostic import acorr_ljungbox
p_value = acorr_ljungbox(share_change, lags=1)#检测autocorrelation,P>0.5代表有相关
share_acf = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(share_change,lags=40)# acf图
share_pacf = sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(share_change,lags=40)#pacf图
print(share_acf,share_pacf)
share_change1=list(share_change)
arma_mod1 = sm.tsa.ARMA(share_change1,(2,1)).fit()
print(arma_mod1.aic,arma_mod1.bic,arma_mod1.hqic)
arma_mod2 = sm.tsa.ARMA(share_change1,(2,2)).fit()
print(arma_mod2.aic,arma_mod2.bic,arma_mod2.hqic)
arma_mod3 = sm.tsa.ARMA(share_change1,(1,0)).fit()
print(arma_mod3.aic,arma_mod3.bic,arma_mod3.hqic)
arma_mod4 = sm.tsa.ARMA(share_change1,(0,1)).fit()
print(arma_mod4.aic,arma_mod4.bic,arma_mod4.hqic)
resid = arma_mod4.resid
from statsmodels.graphics.api import qqplot
figqq = qqplot(resid)
print(figqq)
predict_ts = arma_mod2.predict(start=79,end=82)
