def _single_gmm():
"""Returns a mixture of gaussian applicant distributions."""
return distributions.Mixture(
components=[
ApplicantDistribution(
features=distributions.Gaussian(mean=mean, std=0.5),
group_membership=distributions.Constant(group),
will_default=distributions.Bernoulli(p=default_likelihoods[0])),
ApplicantDistribution(
features=distributions.Gaussian(
mean=np.array(mean) + np.array(intercluster_vec), std=0.5),
group_membership=distributions.Constant(group),
will_default=distributions.Bernoulli(p=default_likelihoods[1]))
],
weights=[0.3, 0.7])
def test_gaussian_has_right_mean_std(self):
my_distribution = distributions.Gaussian(mean=[0, 0, 1], std=0.1)
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed=100)
samples = [my_distribution.sample(rng) for _ in range(1000)]
self.assertLess(
np.linalg.norm(np.mean(samples, 0) - np.array([0, 0, 1])), 0.1)
self.assertLess(
np.linalg.norm(np.std(samples, 0) - np.array([0.1, 0.1, 0.1])),
0.1)
def p_x_fn(self,
z_above: nd.NDArray,
weight: nd.NDArray,
bias: nd.NDArray = None) -> distributions.BaseDistribution:
# z_above: [n_samples, batch_size, size_above]
# weight: [size_above, data_size]
if self.data_distribution == 'gaussian':
params = nd.dot(z_above, weight) + bias
variance = nd.ones_like(params)
return distributions.Gaussian(params, variance)
elif self.data_distribution == 'bernoulli':
params = nd.dot(z_above, weight) + bias
return distributions.Bernoulli(logits=params)
elif self.data_distribution == 'poisson':
# minimum intercept is 0.01
return distributions.Poisson(
0.01 + nd.dot(z_above, util.softplus(weight)))
else:
raise ValueError('Incompatible data distribution: %s' %
self.data_distribution)
def __init__(self,
sdim=None,
udim=None,
weights=None,
sigma=None,
filename=None,
*args,
**kwargs):
if filename is not None:
self.load(filename)
self.compile()
return
self.sdim = sdim
self.udim = udim
self.dist = distributions.Gaussian(sigma=sigma)
self.weights = self.random_weights(
) if weights is None else BlockyVector(weights)
self.compile()
if monitor:
monitor_vals.append(monitor(A, obs_distr))
Tracer()()
return seq, A, obs_distr, ll_test, monitor_vals
if __name__ == '__main__':
X = np.loadtxt('EMGaussian.data')
Xtest = np.loadtxt('EMGaussian.test')
K = 4
# Run simple EM (no HMM)
iterations = 40
assignments, centers, _ = kmeans.kmeans_best_of_n(X, K, n_trials=5)
new_centers = [distributions.Gaussian(c.mean, np.eye(2)) \
for c in centers]
tau, obs_distr, pi, gmm_ll_train, gmm_ll_test = \
em.em(X, new_centers, assignments, n_iter=iterations, Xtest=Xtest)
# example with fixed parameters
A = 1. / 6 * np.ones((K, K))
A[np.diag(np.ones(K)) == 1] = 0.5
lalpha, lbeta = alpha_beta(Xtest, pi, A, obs_distr)
log_p = smoothing(lalpha, lbeta)
p = np.exp(log_p)
def plot_traj(p):
plt.figure()
ind = np.arange(100)
import numpy as onp
import json_tricks as json
import utils
import stein
import kernels
import distributions
import models
import config as cfg
key = random.PRNGKey(0)
# Poorly conditioned Gaussian
d = 50
variances = jnp.logspace(-5, 0, num=d)
target = distributions.Gaussian(jnp.zeros(d), variances)
proposal = distributions.Gaussian(jnp.zeros(d), jnp.ones(d))
@partial(jit, static_argnums=1)
def get_sd(samples, fun):
"""Compute SD(samples, p) given witness function fun"""
return stein.stein_discrepancy(samples, target.logpdf, fun)
def kl_gradient(x):
"""Optimal witness function."""
return grad(lambda x: target.logpdf(x) - proposal.logpdf(x))(x)
print("Computing theoretically optimal Stein discrepancy...")
import distributions
import gen_data
import hmm
import hsmm
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import sys
if __name__ == '__main__':
if sys.argv[1] == 'HMM':
# HMM
K = 2
pi = np.array([0.3, 0.7])
A = np.array([[0.1, 0.9], [0.2, 0.8]])
obs_distr = [
distributions.Gaussian(np.array([3., 0.]),
np.array([[2., 1.], [1., 4.]])),
distributions.Gaussian(np.array([-2., 3.]),
np.array([[3., -1.], [-1., 2.]]))
]
seq, X = gen_data.gen_hmm(pi, A, obs_distr, 10000)
seq_test, Xtest = gen_data.gen_hmm(pi, A, obs_distr, 1000)
init_pi = np.ones(K) / K
init_obs_distr = [
distributions.Gaussian(np.array([1., 0.]), np.eye(2)),
distributions.Gaussian(np.array([0., 1.]), np.eye(2))
]
# HMM
print 'HMM - batch EM'
Xtest = np.loadtxt('EMGaussian.test')
K = 4
iterations = 40
assignments, centers, _ = kmeans.kmeans_best_of_n(X, K, n_trials=5)
for k in range(K):
centers[k].sigma2 = 1.
# Isotropic
tau, obs_distr, pi, ll_train_iso, ll_test_iso = \
em(X, centers, assignments, n_iter=iterations, Xtest=Xtest)
plot_em(X, tau, obs_distr, contours=True)
plt.title('EM with covariance matrices proportional to identity')
# General
new_centers = [distributions.Gaussian(c.mean, c.sigma2*np.eye(2)) \
for c in centers]
tau, obs_distr, pi, ll_train_gen, ll_test_gen = \
em(X, new_centers, assignments, n_iter=iterations, Xtest=Xtest)
plot_em(X, tau, obs_distr, contours=True)
plt.title('EM with general covariance matrices')
# log-likelihood plot
plt.figure()
plt.plot(ll_train_iso, label='isotropic, training')
plt.plot(ll_test_iso, label='isotropic, test')
plt.plot(ll_train_gen, label='general, training')
plt.plot(ll_test_gen, label='general, test')
plt.xlabel('iterations')
plt.ylabel('log-likelihood')
plt.title('Comparison of learning curves')
