def revise_forecasts(
method: str,
forecasts: Dict[str, numpy.ndarray],
errors: Optional[Dict[str, numpy.ndarray]] = None,
residuals: Optional[Dict[str, numpy.ndarray]] = None,
summing_matrix: numpy.ndarray = None,
nodes: NAryTreeT = None,
transformer: TransformT = None,
):
"""
Convenience function to get revised forecast for pre-computed base forecasts
Parameters
----------
method : str
The reconciliation method to use
forecasts : Dict[str, numpy.ndarray]
A dict mapping key name to its forecasts (including in-sample forecasts). Required.
errors : Dict[str, numpy.ndarray]
A dict mapping key name to the in-sample errors. Required for methods: ``OLS``, ``WLSS``, ``WLSV``
residuals : Dict[str, numpy.ndarray]
A dict mapping key name to the residuals of in-sample forecasts. Required for methods: OLS, WLSS, WLSV
summing_matrix : numpy.ndarray
Not required if ``nodes`` argument is passed, or if using ``BU`` approach
nodes : NAryTreeT
The tree of nodes as specified in :py:class:`HierarchyTree <hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree>`. Required if not
if using ``AHP``, ``PHA` ``FP`` methods, or if using passing the ``OLS``, ``WLSS``, ``WLSV`` methods
and not passing the ``summing_matrix`` parameter
transformer : TransformT
A transform with the method: ``inv_func`` that will be applied to the forecasts
Returns
-------
revised forecasts : pandas.DataFrame
The revised forecasts
"""
if nodes:
summing_matrix = to_sum_mat(nodes)
if method in [MethodT.AHP.name, MethodT.PHA.name, MethodT.FP.name
] and not nodes:
raise ValueError(f"Method {method} requires an NAryTree to be passed")
if method in [MethodT.OLS.name, MethodT.WLSS.name, MethodT.WLSV.name]:
if not (all([forecasts, errors, residuals]) or (not summing_matrix)):
raise ValueError(
f"Method {method} requires forecasts, errors, and residuals to be passed, as "
f"well as an NAryTree or a summing matrix")
revision = RevisionMethod(name=method,
sum_mat=summing_matrix,
transformer=transformer)
revised = revision.revise(forecasts=forecasts, mse=errors, nodes=nodes)
return pandas.DataFrame(revised, columns=list(forecasts.keys()))
def test_instantiate_revision(load_df_and_hier_visnights):
hierarchical_visnights_data, visnights_hier = load_df_and_hier_visnights
for method in ['OLS', 'FP', 'WLSS', 'WLSV', 'PHA', 'AHP', 'NONE']:
ht = HTSRegressor(model='holt_winters', revision_method=method)
ht.fit(df=hierarchical_visnights_data, nodes=visnights_hier)
rm = RevisionMethod(method,
sum_mat=ht.sum_mat,
transformer=ht.transform)
_ = ht.predict(steps_ahead=3)
revised = rm.revise(forecasts=ht.hts_result.forecasts,
mse=ht.hts_result.errors,
nodes=ht.nodes)
assert isinstance(revised, numpy.ndarray)
assert revised.shape == (11, len(ht.hts_result.forecasts))
class HTSRegressor(BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin):
"""
Main regressor class for scikit-hts. Likely the only import you'll need for using
this project. It takes a pandas dataframe, the nodes specifying the hierarchies, model kind, revision
method, and a few other parameters. See Examples to get an idea of how to use it.
Attributes
----------
transform : Union[NamedTuple[str, Callable], bool]
Function transform to be applied to input and outputs. If True, it will use ``scipy.stats.boxcox``
and ``scipy.special._ufuncs.inv_boxcox`` on input and output data
sum_mat : array_like
The summing matrix, explained in depth in `Forecasting <https://otexts.com/fpp2/gts.html>`_
nodes : Dict[str, List[str]]
Nodes representing node, edges of the hierarchy. Keys are nodes, values are list of edges.
df : pandas.DataFrame
The dataframe containing the nodes and edges specified above
revision_method : str
One of: ``"OLS", "WLSS", "WLSV", "FP", "PHA", "AHP", "BU", "NONE"``
models : dict
Dictionary that holds the trained models
mse : dict
Dictionary that holds the mse scores for the trained models
residuals : dict
Dictionary that holds the mse residual for the trained models
forecasts : dict
Dictionary that holds the forecasts for the trained models
model_instance : TimeSeriesModel
Reference to the class implementing the actual time series model
"""
def __init__(
self,
model: str = defaults.MODEL,
revision_method: str = defaults.REVISION,
transform: Optional[Union[Transform, bool]] = False,
n_jobs: int = defaults.N_PROCESSES,
low_memory: bool = defaults.LOW_MEMORY,
**kwargs: Any,
):
"""
Parameters
----------
model : str
One of the models supported by ``hts``. These can be found
revision_method : str
The revision method to be used. One of: ``"OLS", "WLSS", "WLSV", "FP", "PHA", "AHP", "BU", "NONE"``
transform : Boolean or NamedTuple
If True, ``scipy.stats.boxcox`` and ``scipy.special._ufuncs.inv_boxcox`` will be applied prior and after
fitting.
If False (default), no transform is applied.
If you desired to use custom functions, use a NamedTuple like:
.. highlight:: python
.. code-block:: python
from collections import namedtuple
Transform = namedtuple('Transform', ['func', 'inv_func']
transform = Transform(func=numpy.exp, inv_func=numpy.log)
ht = HTSRegressor(transform=transform, ...)
The signatures for the ``func`` as well as ``inv_func`` parameters must both be
``Callable[[numpy.ndarry], numpy.ndarray]``, i.e. they must take an array and return an array, both of equal
dimensions
n_jobs : int
Number of parallel jobs to run the forecasting on
low_memory : Bool
If True, models will be fit, serialized, and released from memory. Usually a good idea if
you are dealing with a large amount of nodes
kwargs
Keyword arguments to be passed to the underlying model to be instantiated
"""
self.model = model
self.method: str = revision_method
self.n_jobs: int = n_jobs
self.low_memory: bool = low_memory
if self.low_memory:
self.tmp_dir: Optional[str] = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="hts_")
else:
self.tmp_dir = None
self.transform = transform
self.sum_mat: Optional[numpy.ndarray] = None
self.nodes: Optional[NodesT] = None
self.model_instance: Optional[TimeSeriesModelT] = None
self.exogenous: bool = False
self.revision_method: Optional[RevisionMethod] = None
self.hts_result: HTSResult = HTSResult()
self.model_args = kwargs
def __init_hts(
self,
nodes: Optional[NodesT] = None,
df: Optional[pandas.DataFrame] = None,
tree: Optional[HierarchyTree] = None,
root: str = "root",
exogenous: Optional[List[str]] = None,
):
if not nodes and not df:
if not tree:
raise InvalidArgumentException(
"Either nodes and df must be passed, or a pre-built hierarchy tree"
)
else:
self.nodes = tree
else:
self.nodes = HierarchyTree.from_nodes(nodes=nodes,
df=df,
exogenous=exogenous,
root=root)
self.exogenous = exogenous
self.sum_mat, sum_mat_labels = to_sum_mat(self.nodes)
self._set_model_instance()
self._init_revision()
def _init_revision(self):
self.revision_method = RevisionMethod(sum_mat=self.sum_mat,
transformer=self.transform,
name=self.method)
def _set_model_instance(self):
try:
self.model_instance = hts_models.MODEL_MAPPING[self.model]
except KeyError:
raise InvalidArgumentException(
f'Model {self.model} not valid. Pick one of: {" ".join(ModelT.names())}'
)
def fit(
self,
df: Optional[pandas.DataFrame] = None,
nodes: Optional[NodesT] = None,
tree: Optional[HierarchyTree] = None,
exogenous: Optional[ExogT] = None,
root: str = "total",
distributor: Optional[DistributorBaseClass] = None,
disable_progressbar=defaults.DISABLE_PROGRESSBAR,
show_warnings=defaults.SHOW_WARNINGS,
**fit_kwargs: Any,
) -> "HTSRegressor":
"""
Fit hierarchical model to dataframe containing hierarchical data as specified in the ``nodes`` parameter.
Exogenous can also be passed as a dict of (string, list), where string is the specific node key and the list
contains the names of the columns to be used as exogenous variables for that node.
Alternatively, a pre-built HierarchyTree can be passed without specifying the node and df. See more at
:class:`hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree`
Parameters
----------
df : pandas.DataFrame
A Dataframe of time series with a DateTimeIndex. Each column represents a node in the hierarchy. Ignored if
tree argument is passed
nodes : Dict[str, List[str]]
The hierarchy defined as a dict of (string, list), as specified in
:py:func:`HierarchyTree.from_nodes <hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree.from_nodes>`
tree : HierarchyTree
A pre-built HierarchyTree. Ignored if df and nodes are passed, as the tree will be built from thise
distributor : Optional[DistributorBaseClass]
A distributor, for parallel/distributed processing
exogenous : Dict[str, List[str]] or None
Node key mapping to columns that contain the exogenous variable for that node
root : str
The name of the root node
disable_progressbar : Bool
Disable or enable progressbar
show_warnings : Bool
Disable warnings
fit_kwargs : Any
Any arguments to be passed to the underlying forecasting model's fit function
Returns
-------
HTSRegressor
The fitted HTSRegressor instance
"""
self.__init_hts(nodes=nodes,
df=df,
tree=tree,
root=root,
exogenous=exogenous)
nodes = make_iterable(self.nodes, prop=None)
fit_function_kwargs = {
"fit_kwargs": fit_kwargs,
"low_memory": self.low_memory,
"tmp_dir": self.tmp_dir,
"model_instance": self.model_instance,
"model_args": self.model_args,
"transform": self.transform,
}
fitted_models = _do_fit(
nodes=nodes,
function_kwargs=fit_function_kwargs,
n_jobs=self.n_jobs,
disable_progressbar=disable_progressbar,
show_warnings=show_warnings,
distributor=distributor,
)
for model in fitted_models:
if isinstance(model, tuple):
self.hts_result.models = model
else:
self.hts_result.models = (model.node.key, model)
return self
def __validate_exogenous(
self,
exogenous_df: pandas.DataFrame) -> Optional[pandas.DataFrame]:
if exogenous_df is not None:
if self.model not in [
ModelT.prophet.value, ModelT.auto_arima.value
]:
logger.warning(
"Providing `exogenous_df` with a model that is not `prophet` or `auto_arima` has no effect"
)
if self.exogenous and exogenous_df is None:
raise MissingRegressorException(
"Exogenous variables were provided at fit step, hence are required at "
"predict step. Please pass the 'exogenous_df' variable to predict "
"function")
return exogenous_df
def __validate_steps_ahead(self, exogenous_df: pandas.DataFrame,
steps_ahead: int) -> int:
if exogenous_df is None and not steps_ahead:
logger.info(
"No arguments passed for 'steps_ahead', defaulting to predicting 1-step-ahead"
)
steps_ahead = 1
elif exogenous_df is not None:
steps_ahead = len(exogenous_df)
for node in make_iterable(self.nodes, prop=None):
exog_cols = node.exogenous
try:
_ = exogenous_df[exog_cols]
except KeyError:
raise MissingRegressorException(
f"Node {node.key} has as exogenous variables {node.exogenous} but "
f"these columns were not found in 'exogenous_df'")
return steps_ahead
def predict(
self,
exogenous_df: pandas.DataFrame = None,
steps_ahead: int = None,
distributor: Optional[DistributorBaseClass] = None,
disable_progressbar: bool = defaults.DISABLE_PROGRESSBAR,
show_warnings: bool = defaults.SHOW_WARNINGS,
**predict_kwargs,
) -> pandas.DataFrame:
"""
Parameters
----------
distributor : Optional[DistributorBaseClass]
A distributor, for parallel/distributed processing
disable_progressbar : Bool
Disable or enable progressbar
show_warnings : Bool
Disable warnings
predict_kwargs : Any
Any arguments to be passed to the underlying forecasting model's predict function
exogenous_df : pandas.DataFrame
A dataframe of length == steps_ahead containing the exogenous data for each of the nodes.
Only required when using ``prophet`` or ``auto_arima`` models. See
`fbprophet's additional regression docs <https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/seasonality,_holiday_effects,_and_regressors.html#additional-regressors>`_
and
`AutoARIMA's exogenous handling docs <https://alkaline-ml.com/pmdarima/modules/generated/pmdarima.arima.AutoARIMA.html>`_
for more information.
Other models do not require additional regressors at predict time.
steps_ahead : int
The number of forecasting steps for which to produce a forecast
Returns
-------
Revised Forecasts, as a pandas.DataFrame in the same format as the one passed for fitting, extended by `steps_ahead`
time steps`
"""
exogenous_df = self.__validate_exogenous(exogenous_df)
steps_ahead = self.__validate_steps_ahead(exogenous_df=exogenous_df,
steps_ahead=steps_ahead)
if exogenous_df is not None:
predict_kwargs["exogenous_df"] = exogenous_df
predict_function_kwargs = {
"fit_kwargs": predict_kwargs,
"steps_ahead": steps_ahead,
"low_memory": self.low_memory,
"tmp_dir": self.tmp_dir,
"predict_kwargs": predict_kwargs,
}
fit_models = _model_mapping_to_iterable(self.hts_result.models,
self.nodes)
results = _do_predict(
models=fit_models,
function_kwargs=predict_function_kwargs,
n_jobs=self.n_jobs,
disable_progressbar=disable_progressbar,
show_warnings=show_warnings,
distributor=distributor,
)
for key, forecast, error, residual in results:
self.hts_result.forecasts = (key, forecast)
self.hts_result.errors = (key, error)
self.hts_result.residuals = (key, residual)
return self._revise(steps_ahead=steps_ahead)
def _revise(self, steps_ahead: int = 1) -> pandas.DataFrame:
logger.info(f"Reconciling forecasts using {self.revision_method}")
revised = self.revision_method.revise(
forecasts=self.hts_result.forecasts,
mse=self.hts_result.errors,
nodes=self.nodes,
)
revised_columns = list(make_iterable(self.nodes))
revised_index = self._get_predict_index(steps_ahead=steps_ahead)
return pandas.DataFrame(revised,
index=revised_index,
columns=revised_columns)
def _get_predict_index(self, steps_ahead=1) -> Any:
freq = getattr(self.nodes.item.index, "freq", 1) or 1
try:
start = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + timedelta(freq)
end = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + timedelta(steps_ahead * freq)
future = pandas.date_range(start=start, end=end)
except TypeError:
start = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + freq
end = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + (steps_ahead * freq)
future = pandas.date_range(freq=freq, start=start, end=end)
return self.nodes.item.index.append(future)
def _init_revision(self):
self.revision_method = RevisionMethod(sum_mat=self.sum_mat,
transformer=self.transform,
name=self.method)
def revise_forecasts(
method: str,
forecasts: Dict[str, ArrayLike],
errors: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
residuals: Optional[Dict[str, ArrayLike]] = None,
summing_matrix: numpy.ndarray = None,
nodes: NAryTreeT = None,
transformer: TransformT = None,
):
"""
Convenience function to get revised forecast for pre-computed base forecasts
Parameters
----------
method : str
The reconciliation method to use
forecasts : Dict[str, ArrayLike]
A dict mapping key name to its forecasts (including in-sample forecasts). Required, can be
of type ``numpy.ndarray`` of ``ndim == 1``, ``pandas.Series``, or single columned ``pandas.DataFrame``
errors : Dict[str, float]
A dict mapping key name to the in-sample errors. Required for methods: ``OLS``, ``WLSS``, ``WLSV`` if
``residuals`` is not passed
residuals : Dict[str, ArrayLike]
A dict mapping key name to the residuals of in-sample forecasts. Required for methods: ``OLS``, ``WLSS``,
``WLSV``, can be of type ``numpy.ndarray`` of ndim == 1, ``pandas.Series``, or single columned
``pandas.DataFrame``. If passing residuals, ``errors`` dict is not required and will instead be calculated
using MSE metric: ``numpy.mean(numpy.array(residual) ** 2)``
summing_matrix : numpy.ndarray
Not required if ``nodes`` argument is passed, or if using ``BU`` approach
nodes : NAryTreeT
The tree of nodes as specified in :py:class:`HierarchyTree <hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree>`. Required if not
if using ``AHP``, ``PHA``, ``FP`` methods, or if using passing the ``OLS``, ``WLSS``, ``WLSV`` methods
and not passing the ``summing_matrix`` parameter
transformer : TransformT
A transform with the method: ``inv_func`` that will be applied to the forecasts
Returns
-------
revised forecasts : ``pandas.DataFrame``
The revised forecasts
"""
if nodes:
summing_matrix, sum_mat_labels = to_sum_mat(nodes)
if method in [MethodT.AHP.name, MethodT.PHA.name, MethodT.FP.name
] and not nodes:
raise ValueError(f"Method {method} requires an NAryTree to be passed")
if method in [MethodT.OLS.name, MethodT.WLSS.name, MethodT.WLSV.name]:
errors = _calculate_errors(method=method,
errors=errors,
residuals=residuals)
if not (all([forecasts, errors]) or (not summing_matrix)):
raise ValueError(
f"Method {method} requires forecasts, errors, and residuals to be passed, as "
f"well as an NAryTree or a summing matrix")
revision = RevisionMethod(name=method,
sum_mat=summing_matrix,
transformer=transformer)
sanitized_forecasts = _sanitize_forecasts_dict(forecasts)
revised = revision.revise(forecasts=sanitized_forecasts,
mse=errors,
nodes=nodes)
return pandas.DataFrame(revised, columns=list(sanitized_forecasts.keys()))
class HTSRegressor(BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin):
"""
Main regressor class for scikit-hts. Likely the only import you'll need for using
this project. It takes a pandas dataframe, the nodes specifying the hierarchies, model kind, revision
method, and a few other parameters. See Examples to get an idea of how to use it.
Attributes
----------
transform : Union[NamedTuple[str, Callable], bool]
Function transform to be applied to input and outputs. If True, it will use ``scipy.stats.boxcox``
and ``scipy.special._ufuncs.inv_boxcox`` on input and output data
sum_mat : array_like
The summing matrix, explained in depth in `Forecasting <https://otexts.com/fpp2/gts.html>`_
nodes : Dict[str, List[str]]
Nodes representing node, edges of the hierarchy. Keys are nodes, values are list of edges.
df : pandas.DataFrame
The dataframe containing the nodes and edges specified above
revision_method : str
One of the revisions methods specified in ...
models : dict
Dictionary that holds the trained models
mse : dict
Dictionary that holds the mse scores for the trained models
residuals : dict
Dictionary that holds the mse residual for the trained models
forecasts : dict
Dictionary that holds the forecasts for the trained models
model_instance : TimeSeriesModel
Reference to the class implementing the actual time series model
Methods
-------
fit(self, df: pandas.DataFrame, nodes: Dict, exogenous: List = None, root: str ='total', **fit_args)
Fits underlying models to the data
predict(self, exogenous: pandas.DataFrame = None, steps_ahead: int = 10)
Predicts the n-step ahead forecast with exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are required if models were
fit using them
"""
def __init__(self,
model: str = defaults.MODEL,
revision_method: str = defaults.REVISION,
transform: Optional[Union[Transform, bool]] = None,
n_jobs: int = defaults.N_PROCESSES,
low_memory: bool = defaults.LOW_MEMORY,
**kwargs: Any):
"""
Parameters
----------
model : str
One of the models supported by ``hts``. These can be found
revision_method : str
The revision method to be used
transform : Boolean or NamedTuple
If True, ``scipy.stats.boxcox`` and ``scipy.special._ufuncs.inv_boxcox`` will be applied prior and after
fitting.
If False, no transform is applied.
If you desired to use custom functions, use a NamedTuple like: ``{'func': Callable, 'inv_func': Callable}``
n_jobs : int
Number of parallel jobs to run the forecasting on
low_memory : Bool
If True, models will be fit, serialized, and released from memory. Usually a good idea if
you are dealing with a large amount of nodes
kwargs
Keyword arguments to be passed to the underlying model to be instantiated
"""
self.model = model
self.method = revision_method
self.n_jobs = n_jobs
self.low_memory = low_memory
if self.low_memory:
self.tmp_dir = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix='hts_')
else:
self.tmp_dir = None
self.transform = transform
self.sum_mat = None
self.nodes = None
self.model_instance = None
self.exogenous = False
self.revision_method = None
self.hts_result = HTSResult()
self.model_args = kwargs
def __init_hts(self,
nodes: Optional[NodesT] = None,
df: Optional[pandas.DataFrame] = None,
tree: Optional[HierarchyTree] = None,
root: str = 'root',
exogenous: Optional[List[str]] = None):
if not nodes and not df:
if not tree:
raise InvalidArgumentException(
'Either nodes and df must be passed, or a pre-built hierarchy tree'
)
else:
self.nodes = tree
else:
self.nodes = HierarchyTree.from_nodes(nodes=nodes,
df=df,
exogenous=exogenous,
root=root)
self.exogenous = exogenous
self.sum_mat = to_sum_mat(self.nodes)
self._set_model_instance()
self._init_revision()
def _init_revision(self):
self.revision_method = RevisionMethod(sum_mat=self.sum_mat,
transformer=self.transform,
name=self.method)
def _set_model_instance(self):
try:
self.model_instance = hts_models.MODEL_MAPPING[self.model]
except KeyError:
raise InvalidArgumentException(
f'Model {self.model} not valid. Pick one of: {" ".join(Model.names())}'
)
def fit(self,
df: Optional[pandas.DataFrame] = None,
nodes: Optional[NodesT] = None,
tree: Optional[HierarchyTree] = None,
exogenous: Optional[ExogT] = None,
root: str = 'total',
distributor: Optional[DistributorBaseClass] = None,
disable_progressbar=defaults.DISABLE_PROGRESSBAR,
show_warnings=defaults.SHOW_WARNINGS,
**fit_kwargs: Any) -> 'HTSRegressor':
"""
Fit hierarchical model to dataframe containing hierarchical data as specified in the ``nodes`` parameter
Exogenous can also be passed as a dict of (string, list), where string is the specific node key and the list
contains the names of the columns to be used as exogenous variables for that node.
Alternatively, a pre-built HierarchyTree can be passed without specifying the node and df. See more at
:class:`hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree`
Parameters
----------
df : pandas.DataFrame
A Dataframe of time series with a DateTimeIndex. Each column represents a node in the hierarchy. Ignored if
tree argument is passed
nodes : Dict[str, List[str]]
The hierarchy defined as a dict of (string, list), as specified in
:py:func:`HierarchyTree.from_nodes <hts.hierarchy.HierarchyTree.from_nodes>`
tree : HierarchyTree
A pre-built HierarchyTree. Ignored if df and nodes are passed, as the tree will be built from thise
distributor : Optional[DistributorBaseClass]
A distributor, for parallel/distributed processing
exogenous : Dict[str, List[str]] or None
Node key mapping to columns that contain the exogenous variable for that node
root : str
The name of the root node
disable_progressbar : Bool
Disable or enable progressbar
show_warnings : Bool
Disable warnings
fit_kwargs : Any
Any arguments to be passed to the underlying forecasting model's fit function
Returns
-------
HTSRegressor
The fitted HTSRegressor instance
"""
self.__init_hts(nodes=nodes,
df=df,
tree=tree,
root=root,
exogenous=exogenous)
nodes = make_iterable(self.nodes, prop=None)
fit_function_kwargs = {
'fit_kwargs': fit_kwargs,
'low_memory': self.low_memory,
'tmp_dir': self.tmp_dir,
'model_instance': self.model_instance,
'model_args': self.model_args,
'transform': self.transform
}
fitted_models = _do_fit(nodes=nodes,
function_kwargs=fit_function_kwargs,
n_jobs=self.n_jobs,
disable_progressbar=disable_progressbar,
show_warnings=show_warnings,
distributor=distributor)
for model in fitted_models:
if isinstance(model, tuple):
self.hts_result.models = model
else:
self.hts_result.models = (model.node.key, model)
return self
def __init_predict_step(self, exogenous_df: pandas.DataFrame,
steps_ahead: int):
if self.exogenous and not exogenous_df:
raise MissingRegressorException(
f'Exogenous variables were provided at fit step, hence are required at '
f'predict step. Please pass the \'exogenous_df\' variable to predict '
f'function')
if not exogenous_df and not steps_ahead:
logger.info(
f'No arguments passed for \'steps_ahead\', defaulting to predicting 1-step-ahead'
)
steps_ahead = 1
elif exogenous_df:
steps_ahead = len(exogenous_df)
for node in make_iterable(self.nodes, prop=None):
exog_cols = node.exogenous
try:
node.item = exogenous_df[exog_cols]
except KeyError:
raise MissingRegressorException(
f'Node {node.key} has as exogenous variables {node.exogenous} but '
f'these columns were not found in \'exogenous_df\'')
return steps_ahead
def predict(self,
exogenous_df: pandas.DataFrame = None,
steps_ahead: int = None,
distributor: Optional[DistributorBaseClass] = None,
disable_progressbar=defaults.DISABLE_PROGRESSBAR,
show_warnings=defaults.SHOW_WARNINGS,
**predict_kwargs) -> pandas.DataFrame:
"""
Parameters
----------
distributor : Optional[DistributorBaseClass]
A distributor, for parallel/distributed processing
disable_progressbar : Bool
Disable or enable progressbar
show_warnings : Bool
Disable warnings
predict_kwargs : Any
Any arguments to be passed to the underlying forecasting model's predict function
exogenous_df : pandas.DataFrame
A dataframe of lenght == steps_ahead containing the exogenous data for each of the nodes
steps_ahead : int
The number of forecasting steps for which to produce a forecast
Returns
-------
Revised Forescasts, as a pandas.DataFrame in the same format as the one passed for fitting, extended by `steps_ahead`
time steps`
"""
steps_ahead = self.__init_predict_step(exogenous_df, steps_ahead)
predict_function_kwargs = {
'fit_kwargs': predict_kwargs,
'steps_ahead': steps_ahead,
'low_memory': self.low_memory,
'tmp_dir': self.tmp_dir,
'predict_kwargs': predict_kwargs,
}
fit_models = _model_mapping_to_iterable(self.hts_result.models,
self.nodes)
results = _do_predict(models=fit_models,
function_kwargs=predict_function_kwargs,
n_jobs=self.n_jobs,
disable_progressbar=disable_progressbar,
show_warnings=show_warnings,
distributor=distributor)
for key, forecast, error, residual in results:
self.hts_result.forecasts = (key, forecast)
self.hts_result.errors = (key, error)
self.hts_result.residuals = (key, residual)
return self._revise(steps_ahead=steps_ahead)
def _revise(self, steps_ahead=1):
logger.info(f'Reconciling forecasts using {self.revision_method}')
revised = self.revision_method.revise(
forecasts=self.hts_result.forecasts,
mse=self.hts_result.errors,
nodes=self.nodes)
revised_columns = list(make_iterable(self.nodes))
revised_index = self._get_predict_index(steps_ahead=steps_ahead)
return pandas.DataFrame(revised,
index=revised_index,
columns=revised_columns)
def _get_predict_index(self, steps_ahead=1):
freq = getattr(self.nodes.item.index, 'freq', 1)
start = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + freq
end = self.nodes.item.index[-1] + (steps_ahead * freq)
future = pandas.date_range(freq=freq, start=start, end=end)
return self.nodes.item.index.append(future)
