def disease_evolution(self):
if self.is_infected():
self.infection_days_count += 1
if self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.ASYMPTOMATIC:
if self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_incubation:
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.LOW
self.covid_model.global_count.asymptomatic_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.symptomatic_count += 1
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.LOW:
if flip_coin(self.moderate_severity_prob):
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count += 1
if not self.covid_model.reached_hospitalization_limit():
self.covid_model.global_count.total_hospitalized += 1
self.hospitalized = True
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE:
if flip_coin(self.high_severity_prob):
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.HIGH
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.high_severity_count += 1
if not self.hospitalized or self.death_mark:
self.die()
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.HIGH:
if self.death_mark:
self.die()
if self.disease_severity != DiseaseSeverity.DEATH:
if self.infection_days_count > self.infection_duration:
self.recover()
def check_spreading(self, h1, h2):
if h1.is_contagious() and not h2.is_infected():
if flip_coin(self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')):
me = self.get_parameter('mask_efficacy')
if not h1.is_wearing_mask() or (h1.is_wearing_mask()
and not flip_coin(me)):
h2.infect()
def invite_friends_to_restaurant(self):
shape = self.properties.risk_tolerance * get_parameters().get('typical_restaurant_event_size')
event_size = np.random.gamma(shape, 1)
logger().debug(f"Restaurant event size of {self} is {event_size}")
accepted = [self]
for human in self.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND]:
if human != self and human.personal_decision(Dilemma.ACCEPT_FRIEND_INVITATION_TO_RESTAURANT):
accepted.append(human)
if len(accepted) >= event_size:
break
if len(accepted) == 1:
return
outdoor = flip_coin(linear_rescale(self.properties.risk_tolerance, 0, 0.5))
if flip_coin(linear_rescale(self.work_info.base_income, 0, 1 / 5)):
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FANCY
else:
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FAST_FOOD
event = self.work_district.get_available_restaurant(len(accepted), outdoor, restaurant_type)
if event is not None and not outdoor:
event = self.work_district.get_available_restaurant(len(accepted), True, restaurant_type)
if event is None:
return
event.available -= len(accepted)
for human in accepted:
human.social_event = (self, event)
def check_spreading(self, h1, h2):
#print(f"check-spreading in location {self.unique_id} of types {type(self).mro()}")
if h1.is_infected():
logger().debug(f"Check to see if {h1} can infect {h2} in {self}")
if h1.is_contagious() and not h2.is_infected():
logger().debug(f"contagion_probability = {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}")
if flip_coin(self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')):
me = self.get_parameter('mask_efficacy')
if not h1.is_wearing_mask() or (h1.is_wearing_mask() and not flip_coin(me)):
if h2.strid not in self.covid_model.global_count.infection_info:
self.covid_model.global_count.infection_info[h2.strid] = self
logger().debug(f"Infection succeeded - {h1} has infected {h2} in {self} with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}")
h1.count_infected_humans += 1
h2.infect()
else:
if h1.is_wearing_mask():
logger().debug(f"Infection failed - infector {h1} wearing mask")
if h2.is_wearing_mask():
logger().debug(f"Infection failed - infectee {h2} wearing mask")
else:
logger().debug(f"Infection failed - {self} didn't pass contagion_probability check with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}")
else:
if not h1.is_contagious():
logger().debug(f"Infection failed - infector {h1} is not contagious")
if h2.is_infected():
logger().debug(f"Infection failed - infectee {h2} is already infected")
def factory(covid_model, forced_age):
# https://docs.google.com/document/d/14C4utmOi4WiBe7hOVtRt-NgMLh37pr_ntou-xUFAOjk/edit
#moderate_severity_probs = [
# 0,
# normal_ci(0.000243, 0.000832, 13),
# normal_ci(0.00622, 0.0213, 50),
# normal_ci(0.0204, 0.07, 437),
# normal_ci(0.0253, 0.0868, 733),
# normal_ci(0.0486, 0.167, 743),
# normal_ci(0.0701, 0.24, 790),
# normal_ci(0.0987, 0.338, 560),
# normal_ci(0.11, 0.376, 263),
# normal_ci(0.11, 0.376, 76)
#]
moderate_severity_probs = [0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40, 0.60, 0.80, 0.99, 0.99, 0.99]
high_severity_probs = [0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40, 0.60, 0.80, 0.99, 0.99, 0.99]
death_probs = [0] * 10
death_probs[2] = 0.003
death_probs[0] = death_probs[2] / 9
death_probs[1] = death_probs[2] / 16
death_probs[3] = death_probs[2] * 4
death_probs[4] = death_probs[2] * 10
death_probs[5] = death_probs[2] * 30
death_probs[6] = death_probs[2] * 90
death_probs[7] = death_probs[2] * 220
death_probs[8] = death_probs[2] * 630
death_probs[9] = death_probs[2] * 1000
if forced_age is None:
age = int(np.random.beta(2, 5, 1) * 100)
else:
age = forced_age
index = age // 10
msp = moderate_severity_probs[index]
hsp = high_severity_probs[index]
mfd = flip_coin(death_probs[index])
if age <= 1:
human = Infant(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 4:
human = Toddler(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 18:
human = K12Student(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 64:
human = Adult(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
else:
human = Elder(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
human.strid = f"human_{Human.count}"
Human.count += 1
covid_model.global_count.non_infected_count += 1
if human.immune:
covid_model.global_count.immune_count += 1
else:
covid_model.global_count.susceptible_count += 1
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('initial_infection_rate')):
human.infect()
return human
def disease_evolution(self):
# https://media.tghn.org/medialibrary/2020/06/ISARIC_Data_Platform_COVID-19_Report_8JUN20.pdf
# https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence
if self.is_infected():
self.infection_days_count += 1
if self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.ASYMPTOMATIC:
if self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_incubation:
logger().info(f"{self} evolved from ASYMPTOMATIC to LOW")
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.LOW
self.covid_model.global_count.asymptomatic_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.symptomatic_count += 1
day = self.covid_model.global_count.day_count
if day not in self.covid_model.global_count.new_symptomatic_count:
self.covid_model.global_count.new_symptomatic_count[day] = 0
self.covid_model.global_count.new_symptomatic_count[day] += 1
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.LOW:
if self.infection_days_count > self.infection_incubation + self.mild_duration:
# By the end of this period, either the patient is already with antibodies at
# a level sufficient to cure the disease or the symptoms will get worse and he/she
# will require hospitalization
if self.death_mark or flip_coin(self.moderate_severity_prob):
# MODERATE cases requires hospitalization
logger().info(f"{self} evolved from LOW to MODERATE")
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count += 1
if not self.covid_model.reached_hospitalization_limit():
self.hospitalize()
else:
logger().info(f"{self} couldn't be hospitalized (hospitalization limit reached)")
else:
self.recover()
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE:
if self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_incubation + self.mild_duration + self.hospitalization_duration:
if self.death_mark or flip_coin(self.high_severity_prob):
logger().info(f"{self} evolved from MODERATE to HIGH")
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.HIGH
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.high_severity_count += 1
# If the disease evolves to HIGH and the person could not
# be accommodated in a hospital, he/she will die.
if not self.hospitalized or self.covid_model.reached_icu_limit():
self.die()
else:
shape = get_parameters().get('icu_period_duration_shape')
scale = get_parameters().get('icu_period_duration_scale')
self.icu_duration = np.random.gamma(shape, scale)
self.has_been_icu = True
logger().debug(f"ICU duration of {self} is {self.icu_duration}")
else:
self.recover()
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.HIGH:
if self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_incubation + self.mild_duration +\
self.hospitalization_duration + self.icu_duration:
if self.death_mark:
self.die()
else:
self.recover()
def parameter_changed(self):
self.mask_user = flip_coin(get_parameters().get('mask_user_rate'))
self.isolation_cheater = flip_coin(
get_parameters().get('isolation_cheater_rate'))
self.immune = flip_coin(get_parameters().get('imune_rate'))
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('weareable_adoption_rate')):
self.early_symptom_detection = 1 # number of days
else:
self.early_symptom_detection = 0
def parameter_changed(self):
# When a parameter is changed in the middle of simulation
# the user may want to reroll some human's properties
self.mask_user = flip_coin(get_parameters().get('mask_user_rate'))
self.immune = flip_coin(get_parameters().get('imune_rate'))
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('weareable_adoption_rate')):
self.early_symptom_detection = 1 # number of days
else:
self.early_symptom_detection = 0
self.initialize_individual_properties()
def personal_decision(self, dilemma):
if dilemma == Dilemma.GO_TO_WORK_ON_LOCKDOWN:
if self.work_info.work_class == WorkClasses.RETAIL:
pd = flip_coin(self.properties.risk_tolerance)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self, dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
logger().debug(f'{self}({self.unique_id}) had risk tolerance of {self.properties.risk_tolerance} in decision to work retail, making a personal decision of {pd} but a herding decision of {hd}')
else:
answer = False
if answer:
logger().info(f"{self} decided to get out to work on lockdown")
elif dilemma == Dilemma.INVITE_FRIENDS_TO_RESTAURANT:
if self.social_event is not None or self.is_symptomatic():
# don't update dilemma_history since it's a compulsory decision
return False
rt = self.properties.risk_tolerance
if SocialPolicy.SOCIAL_DISTANCING in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
rt = rt * rt
k = 3 # TODO parameter
d = self.covid_model.global_count.infected_count / self.covid_model.global_count.total_population
rt = rt * math.exp(-k * d)
pd = flip_coin(rt)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self,dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
logger().debug(f'{self}({self.unique_id}) had risk tolerance of {rt} in decision to invite, making a personal decision of {pd} but a herding decision of {hd} and answer of {answer}')
if answer: logger().info(f"{self} decided to invite friends to a restaurant")
elif dilemma == Dilemma.ACCEPT_FRIEND_INVITATION_TO_RESTAURANT:
if self.social_event is not None or self.is_symptomatic():
# don't update dilemma_history since it's a compulsory decision
return False
rt = self.properties.risk_tolerance
if SocialPolicy.SOCIAL_DISTANCING in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
rt = rt * rt
k = 3 # TODO parameter
d = self.covid_model.global_count.infected_count / self.covid_model.global_count.total_population
rt = rt * math.exp(-k * d)
pd = flip_coin(rt)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self,dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
logger().debug(f'{self}({self.unique_id}) had risk tolerance of {rt} in decision to accept invite, making a personal decision of {pd} but a herding decision of {hd} and answer of {answer}')
if answer:
logger().info(f"{self} decided to accept an invitation to go to a restaurant")
else:
assert False
for tribe in TribeSelector:
self.dilemma_history.history[dilemma][tribe].append(answer)
return answer
def spread_infection(self):
if len(self.patients) > 0:
logger().info(f"{self} is spreading infection patients -> workers")
print(f"{self} is spreading infection patients -> workers")
for worker in humans:
for patient in patients:
if not flip_coin(r):
continue
logger().debug(
f"Check to see if patient {patient} can infect worker {worker} in {self}"
)
print(
f"Check to see if patient {patient} can infect worker {worker} in {self}"
)
if not worker.is_infected():
logger().debug(
f"contagion_probability = {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}"
)
if flip_coin(
self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')):
if worker.strid not in self.covid_model.global_count.infection_info:
self.covid_model.global_count.infection_info[
worker.strid] = self
logger().debug(
f"Infection succeeded - {patient} has infected {worker} in {self} with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}"
)
print(
f"Infection succeeded - {patient} has infected {worker} in {self} with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}"
)
patient.count_infected_humans += 1
worker.infect(patient)
else:
logger().debug(
f"Infection failed - {self} didn't pass contagion_probability check with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}"
)
print(
f"Infection failed - {self} didn't pass contagion_probability check with contagion "
f"probability {self.get_parameter('contagion_probability')}"
)
else:
logger().debug(
f"Infection failed - infectee {worker} is already infected"
)
print(
f"Infection failed - infectee {worker} is already infected"
)
super().spread_infection() # amongst workers only
def _standard_decision(self, pd, hd):
if hd is None:
return pd
else:
if flip_coin(self.properties.herding_behavior):
return hd
else:
return pd
def infect_blob(self, blob_num):
count = 0
vectors = self.blob_dict[blob_num]
for v in vectors:
human = self.vector_to_human[tuple(v)]
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('initial_infection_rate')):
human.infect(None)
count += 1
print(f"infected {count} agents in community {blob_num}")
def spread_infection(self):
if len(self.humans) > 0:
logger().info(f"{self} is spreading infection amongst {len(self.humans)} humans")
for h1 in self.humans:
for h2 in self.humans:
if h1 != h2:
if h1.social_event == h2.social_event or \
flip_coin(0.25 * self.get_parameter('allowed_restaurant_capacity')):
self.check_spreading(h1, h2)
def step(self):
super().step()
# The default behavior for Humans are just stay at home all day. Disease is
# evolved in EVENING_AT_HOME
if self.is_dead:
return
if self.covid_model.current_state == SimulationState.EVENING_AT_HOME:
self.disease_evolution()
if not self.is_infected() and not self.is_dead and flip_coin(get_parameters().get('exogenous_infection_rate')):
self.infect(None)
def factory(covid_model, forced_age):
# https://docs.google.com/document/d/14C4utmOi4WiBe7hOVtRt-NgMLh37pr_ntou-xUFAOjk/edit
moderate_severity_probs = [
0,
normal_cap_ci(0.000243, 0.000832, 13),
normal_cap_ci(0.00622, 0.0213, 50),
normal_cap_ci(0.0204, 0.07, 437),
normal_cap_ci(0.0253, 0.0868, 733),
normal_cap_ci(0.0486, 0.167, 743),
normal_cap_ci(0.0701, 0.24, 790),
normal_cap_ci(0.0987, 0.338, 560),
normal_cap_ci(0.11, 0.376, 263),
normal_cap_ci(0.11, 0.376, 76)
]
high_severity_probs = [0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.063, 0.122, 0.274, 0.432, 0.709, 0.709]
death_probs = [0.002, 0.00006, 0.0003, 0.0008, 0.0015, 0.006, 0.022, 0.051, 0.093, 0.093]
if forced_age is None:
age = int(np.random.beta(2, 5, 1) * 100)
else:
age = forced_age
index = age // 10
msp = moderate_severity_probs[index]
hsp = high_severity_probs[index]
mfd = flip_coin(death_probs[index])
if age <= 1:
human = Infant(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 4:
human = Toddler(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 18:
human = K12Student(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
elif age <= 64:
human = Adult(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
else:
human = Elder(covid_model, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
covid_model.global_count.non_infected_count += 1
if human.immune:
covid_model.global_count.immune_count += 1
else:
covid_model.global_count.susceptible_count += 1
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('initial_infection_rate')):
human.infect()
return human
def personal_decision(self, dilemma):
answer = False
if dilemma == Dilemma.GO_TO_WORK_ON_LOCKDOWN:
if self.work_info.work_class == WorkClasses.RETAIL:
pd = flip_coin(self.properties.risk_tolerance)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self,dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
else:
answer = False
elif dilemma == Dilemma.INVITE_FRIENDS_TO_RESTAURANT:
if self.social_event is not None or self.is_symptomatic():
# don't update dilemma_history since it's a compulsory decision
return False
rt = self.properties.risk_tolerance
if SocialPolicy.SOCIAL_DISTANCING in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
rt = rt * rt
k = 3 #TODO parameter
d = self.covid_model.global_count.infected_count / self.covid_model.global_count.total_population
rt = rt * math.exp(-k * d)
pd = flip_coin(rt)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self,dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
elif dilemma == Dilemma.ACCEPT_FRIEND_INVITATION_TO_RESTAURANT:
if self.social_event is not None or self.is_symptomatic():
# don't update dilemma_history since it's a compulsory decision
return False
rt = self.properties.risk_tolerance
if SocialPolicy.SOCIAL_DISTANCING in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
rt = rt * rt
k = 3 # TODO parameter
d = self.covid_model.global_count.infected_count / self.covid_model.global_count.total_population
rt = rt * math.exp(-k * d)
pd = flip_coin(rt)
hd = self.dilemma_history.herding_decision(self,dilemma, TribeSelector.FRIEND,
get_parameters().get('min_behaviors_to_copy'))
answer = self._standard_decision(pd, hd)
else: assert False
for tribe in TribeSelector:
self.dilemma_history.history[dilemma][tribe].append(answer)
return answer
def disease_evolution(self):
# https://media.tghn.org/medialibrary/2020/06/ISARIC_Data_Platform_COVID-19_Report_8JUN20.pdf
# https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence
if self.is_infected():
self.infection_days_count += 1
if self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.ASYMPTOMATIC:
if self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_incubation:
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.LOW
self.covid_model.global_count.asymptomatic_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.symptomatic_count += 1
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.LOW:
if self.infection_days_count > self.mild_duration:
# By the end of this period, either the pacient is already with antibodies at
# a level sufficient to cure the disease or the simptoms will get worse and he/she
# will require hospitalization
if flip_coin(self.moderate_severity_prob):
# MODERATE cases requires hospitalization
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count += 1
if not self.covid_model.reached_hospitalization_limit():
self.covid_model.global_count.total_hospitalized += 1
self.hospitalized = True
shape = get_parameters().get('hospitalization_period_duration_shape')
scale = get_parameters().get('hospitalization_period_duration_scale')
self.hospitalization_duration = np.random.gamma(shape, scale) + self.infection_days_count
else:
self.recover()
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE:
if self.infection_days_count > self.hospitalization_duration:
self.recover()
else:
if flip_coin(self.high_severity_prob):
self.disease_severity = DiseaseSeverity.HIGH
self.covid_model.global_count.moderate_severity_count -= 1
self.covid_model.global_count.high_severity_count += 1
# If the disease evolves to HIGH and the person could not
# be accomodated in a hospital, he/she will die.
if not self.hospitalized or self.death_mark:
self.die()
elif self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.HIGH:
if self.death_mark:
self.die()
def create_restaurant_location(self, index, is_bar):
if is_bar:
bar = Restaurant(normal_cap(100, 20, 50, 200), RestaurantType.BAR,
flip_coin(0.5), self.model, 'Restaurant',
str(index))
return bar
else:
if flip_coin(0.5):
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FAST_FOOD
rtype = "FASTFOOD"
else:
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FANCY
rtype = "FANCY"
restaurant = Restaurant(
normal_cap(
get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_mean'],
get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_stdev'], 16,
200), restaurant_type, flip_coin(0.5), self.model,
'Restaurant', str(index))
return restaurant
def vaccinate(self):
if self.vaccinated():
return
shots_taken = len(self.vaccination_days)
if flip_coin(get_parameters().get('vaccine_immunization_rate')[shots_taken]):
self.immune = True
else:
symptom_attenuation = get_parameters().get('vaccine_symptom_attenuation')[shots_taken]
self.moderate_severity_prob = self.base_moderate_severity_prob * (1 - symptom_attenuation)
self.high_severity_prob = self.base_moderate_severity_prob * (1 - symptom_attenuation)
self.vaccination_days.append(self.covid_model.global_count.day_count)
def is_isolated(self):
if self.is_symptomatic():
return flip_coin(get_parameters().get('symptomatic_isolation_rate'))
if isinstance(self, Adult):
for policy in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
if policy in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_work_classes and \
self.work_info.work_class in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_work_classes[policy]:
return not self.personal_decision(Dilemma.GO_TO_WORK_ON_LOCKDOWN)
elif isinstance(self, K12Student):
for policy in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
if policy in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_student_ages:
lb, ub = SocialPolicyUtil.locked_student_ages[policy]
if lb <= self.age <= ub:
return True
return False
def __init__(self, unique_id, covid_model, size):
super().__init__(unique_id, covid_model)
self.size = size
self.covid_model = covid_model
self.custom_parameters = {}
count = 0
for i in range(size):
human = Human.factory(covid_model, self)
self.covid_model.global_count.non_infected_people.append(human)
self.covid_model.global_count.non_infected_count += 1
if human.immune:
self.covid_model.global_count.immune_count += 1
else:
self.covid_model.global_count.susceptible_count += 1
if not flip_coin(self.get_parameter('initial_infection_rate')):
count += 1
else:
self.covid_model.global_count.non_infected_people[
count].infect(count)
def main_activity_isolated(self):
if self.is_infected():
if self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.MODERATE or \
self.disease_severity == DiseaseSeverity.HIGH:
return True
if self.is_symptomatic():
ir = get_parameters().get('symptomatic_isolation_rate')
if flip_coin(ir):
return True
if isinstance(self, Adult):
for policy in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
if policy in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_work_classes and \
self.work_info.work_class in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_work_classes[policy]:
return not self.personal_decision(Dilemma.GO_TO_WORK_ON_LOCKDOWN)
elif isinstance(self, K12Student):
for policy in get_parameters().get('social_policies'):
if policy in SocialPolicyUtil.locked_student_ages:
lb, ub = SocialPolicyUtil.locked_student_ages[policy]
if self.age >= lb and self.age <= ub:
return True
return False
def factory(covid_model, location):
moderate_severity_probs = [
0.001, 0.003, 0.012, 0.032, 0.049, 0.102, 0.166, 0.243, 0.273,
0.273
]
high_severity_probs = [
0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.063, 0.122, 0.274, 0.432, 0.709, 0.709
]
death_probs = [
0.002, 0.00006, 0.0003, 0.0008, 0.0015, 0.006, 0.022, 0.051, 0.093,
0.093
]
age = int(np.random.beta(2, 5, 1) * 100)
index = age // 10
msp = moderate_severity_probs[index]
hsp = high_severity_probs[index]
mfd = flip_coin(death_probs[index])
if age <= 1: return Infant(covid_model, location, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
if age <= 4: return Toddler(covid_model, location, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
if age <= 18:
return K12Student(covid_model, location, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
if age <= 64: return Adult(covid_model, location, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
return Elder(covid_model, location, age, msp, hsp, mfd)
def __init__(self, city, population_size, model):
self.work_zones = [
'GM', 'IC', 'GR', 'CS', 'HC', 'O-1', 'O-2', 'LI', 'HM', 'GI', 'LB',
'WC-1', 'WC-2', 'WC-3', 'RI', 'CC', 'COM-1', 'COM-2', 'CNTY-A-1',
'CNTY-M-1', 'CNTY-C-2'
]
self.home_zones = [
'R-SF', 'R-LD', 'R-TH', 'R-MD', 'CNTY-R-1', 'R-MHC', 'R-HD'
]
self.unused_zones = ['PD', 'CNTY-PAD', None]
home_low_density_capacity = 20
home_medium_density_capacity = 150
home_high_density_capacity = 450
family_capacity_per_building = {
'R-SF': 1,
'R-LD': home_low_density_capacity,
'R-TH': home_low_density_capacity,
'R-MD': home_medium_density_capacity,
'CNTY-R-1': home_medium_density_capacity,
'R-MHC': home_medium_density_capacity,
'R-HD': home_high_density_capacity
}
family_capacity = {}
self.model = model
self.population_size = population_size
self.zone_centroid = {}
self.work_building_ids = []
self.home_building_ids = []
self.school_building_ids = []
self.restaurant_building_ids = []
self.home_building = {}
self.work_building = {}
self.school_building = {}
self.restaurant_building = {}
self.restaurant_distances = {}
self.school_distances = {}
self.work_zone_distances = {}
self.restaurant_roulette = {}
self.school_roulette = {}
self.work_zone_roulette = {}
self.sigma = get_parameters(
).params['real_sites_roulette_rescale_sigma']
self.kappa = get_parameters(
).params['real_sites_roulette_rescale_kappa']
home_district = District('HomeDistrict', model, '', '')
work_district = District('WorkDistrict', model, '', '')
school_district = District('SchoolDistrict', model, '', '')
restaurant_district = District('RestaurantDistrict', model, '', '')
with open(f'mesa-geo/examples/GeoSIR/{city}/neighborhoods.geojson'
) as json_file:
self.neighborhoods = json.load(json_file)
self.neighborhoods_count = len(self.neighborhoods['features'])
print(
f"Total number of neighboorhoods: {self.neighborhoods_count}")
with open(f'mesa-geo/examples/GeoSIR/{city}/schools.geojson'
) as json_file:
self.schools = json.load(json_file)
self.schools_count = len(self.schools['features'])
for school in self.schools['features']:
bid = str(school['properties']['OBJECTID'])
self.school_building_ids.append(bid)
self.school_building[bid] = HomogeneousBuilding(
1000000, model, 'School', bid)
school_district.locations.append(self.school_building[bid])
print(f"Total number of schools: {self.schools_count}")
with open(f'mesa-geo/examples/GeoSIR/{city}/zoning.geojson'
) as json_file:
self.buildings = json.load(json_file)
print(
f"Total number of buildings: {len(self.buildings['features'])}"
)
self.all_zones_coordinates = []
for building in self.buildings['features']:
bid = str(building['properties']['OBJECTID'])
self.zone_centroid[bid] = self.compute_centroid(building)
zone = building['properties']['PLANZONE']
if building['geometry']['type'] == 'Polygon':
self.all_zones_coordinates.append(
building['geometry']['coordinates'][0])
elif building['geometry']['type'] == 'MultiPolygon':
for v in building['geometry']['coordinates']:
self.all_zones_coordinates.append(v[0])
else:
assert False
if zone in self.work_zones:
self.work_building_ids.append(bid)
self.work_building[bid] = HomogeneousBuilding(
1000000, model, 'Work', bid)
work_district.locations.append(self.work_building[bid])
elif zone in self.home_zones:
family_capacity[bid] = family_capacity_per_building[zone]
self.home_building_ids.append(bid)
self.home_building[bid] = HomogeneousBuilding(
family_capacity[bid], model, 'Home', bid)
home_district.locations.append(self.home_building[bid])
elif zone not in self.unused_zones:
print(f"Unknown zone type: {zone}")
exit()
self.restaurants = self.create_geo_restaurants(self.buildings)
self.restaurants_count = len(self.restaurants['features'])
for restaurant in self.restaurants['features']:
bid_int = restaurant['properties']['OBJECTID']
bid = str(bid_int)
self.restaurant_building_ids.append(bid)
self.restaurant_building[bid] = self.create_restaurant_location(
bid_int, flip_coin(0.1))
restaurant_district.locations.append(self.restaurant_building[bid])
print(f"Total number of restaurants: {self.restaurants_count}")
with open('restaurants.geojson', 'w') as fp:
json.dump(self.restaurants, fp)
distance_cache_file = f'mesa-geo/examples/GeoSIR/{city}/distances_{self.sigma}_{self.kappa}.json'
if os.path.isfile(distance_cache_file):
with open(distance_cache_file) as json_file:
table = json.load(json_file)
self.restaurant_distances = table['restaurant_distances']
self.school_distances = table['school_distances']
self.work_zone_distances = table['work_zone_distances']
self.restaurant_roulette = table['restaurant_roulette']
self.school_roulette = table['school_roulette']
self.work_zone_roulette = table['work_zone_roulette']
else:
self.compute_restaurant_distances()
self.compute_school_distances()
self.compute_work_zone_distances()
table = {}
table['restaurant_distances'] = self.restaurant_distances
table['school_distances'] = self.school_distances
table['work_zone_distances'] = self.work_zone_distances
table['restaurant_roulette'] = self.restaurant_roulette
table['school_roulette'] = self.school_roulette
table['work_zone_roulette'] = self.work_zone_roulette
with open(distance_cache_file, 'w') as json_file:
json.dump(table, json_file)
family_factory = FamilyFactory(model)
family_factory.factory(population_size)
model.global_count.total_population = family_factory.human_count
print(f"Total number of families: {len(family_factory.families)}")
#count_family = 0
for family in family_factory.families:
#if count_family % 1000 == 0: print(f"{count_family} {datetime.datetime.now()}")
#count_family += 1
assert len(self.home_building_ids) > 0
home_bid = random_selection(self.home_building_ids)
selected_home_build = self.home_building[home_bid]
home_unit = BuildingUnit(10,
model,
home_bid,
'',
contagion_probability=beta_range(
0.021, 0.12))
family_capacity[home_bid] -= 1
if family_capacity[home_bid] == 0:
self.home_building_ids.remove(home_bid)
selected_home_build.locations.append(home_unit)
for human in family:
# Home
human.home_district = home_district
home_district.allocation[human] = [selected_home_build]
home_unit.allocation.append(human)
selected_home_build.allocation[human] = home_unit
assert home_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(
human) == home_unit
home_unit.humans.append(human)
# Work
if isinstance(human, Adult):
human.work_district = work_district
#work_bid = random_selection(self.work_building_ids)
work_bid = roulette_selection(
self.work_zone_distances[home_bid]['work_zone_bid'],
self.work_zone_distances[home_bid]['distance'],
roulette=self.work_zone_roulette[home_bid])
selected_work_building = self.work_building[work_bid]
work_unit = selected_work_building.locations[-1] if selected_work_building.locations and\
len(work_unit.allocation) < work_unit.capacity else None
if work_unit is None:
work_unit = BuildingUnit(
10,
model,
work_bid,
'',
contagion_probability=beta_range(0.007, 0.06))
selected_work_building.locations.append(work_unit)
work_district.allocation[human] = [selected_work_building]
work_unit.allocation.append(human)
selected_work_building.allocation[human] = work_unit
assert work_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(
human) == work_unit
# School
if isinstance(human, K12Student):
human.school_district = school_district
#work_bid = random_selection(self.school_building_ids)
school_bid = roulette_selection(
self.school_distances[home_bid]['school_bid'],
self.school_distances[home_bid]['distance'],
roulette=self.school_roulette[home_bid])
selected_school_building = self.school_building[school_bid]
school_unit = selected_school_building.locations[-1] if selected_school_building.locations and\
len(school_unit.allocation) < school_unit.capacity else None
if school_unit is None:
school_unit = BuildingUnit(
20,
model,
school_bid,
'',
contagion_probability=beta_range(0.014, 0.08))
selected_school_building.locations.append(school_unit)
school_district.allocation[human] = [
selected_school_building
]
school_unit.allocation.append(human)
selected_school_building.allocation[human] = school_unit
assert school_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(
human) == school_unit
# Restaurants
if isinstance(human, Adult):
#bids = [random_selection(self.restaurant_building_ids) for i in range(10)]
bids = roulette_selection(
self.restaurant_distances[work_bid]['restaurant_bid'],
self.restaurant_distances[work_bid]['distance'],
10,
roulette=self.restaurant_roulette[work_bid])
human.preferred_restaurants = [
self.restaurant_building[bid] for bid in bids
]
def is_wearing_mask(self):
mur = get_parameters().get('mask_user_rate')
return flip_coin(mur)
def setup_city_layout(model, population_size):
work_building_capacity = 20
office_capacity = 10
work_building_occupacy_rate = 0.5
appartment_building_capacity = 20
appartment_capacity = 5
appartment_building_occupacy_rate = 0.5
school_capacity = 50
classroom_capacity = 20
school_occupacy_rate = 0.5
# Build empty districts
# https://docs.google.com/document/d/1imCNXOyoyecfD_sVNmKpmbWVB6xqP-FWlHELAyOg1Vs/edit
home_district = build_district(
"Home", model, population_size, appartment_building_capacity,
appartment_capacity, appartment_building_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.021, 0.12)) # normal_ci(0.021, 0.12, 10)
work_district = build_district(
"Work", model, population_size,
work_building_capacity, office_capacity, work_building_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.007, 0.06)) # normal_ci(0.007, 0.06, 10)
school_district = build_district(
"School", model, population_size,
school_capacity, classroom_capacity, school_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.014, 0.08)) # normal_ci(0.014, 0.08, 10)
home_district.debug = model.debug
work_district.debug = model.debug
school_district.debug = model.debug
# Add Restaurants to work_district
for i in range(
get_parameters().params['restaurant_count_per_work_district']):
if flip_coin(0.5):
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FAST_FOOD
rtype = "FASTFOOD"
else:
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FANCY
rtype = "FANCY"
restaurant = Restaurant(
normal_cap(get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_mean'],
get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_stdev'],
16, 200), restaurant_type, flip_coin(0.5), model, '',
rtype + '-' + str(i))
work_district.locations.append(restaurant)
for i in range(2):
bar = Restaurant(normal_cap(100, 20, 50, 200), RestaurantType.BAR,
flip_coin(0.5), model, '', 'BAR-' + str(i))
work_district.locations.append(bar)
# print(home_district)
# print(work_district)
# print(school_district)
# Build families
family_factory = FamilyFactory(model)
family_factory.factory(population_size)
model.global_count.total_population = family_factory.human_count
# print(family_factory)
age_group_sets = {
Infant: [],
Toddler: [],
K12Student: [],
Adult: [],
Elder: []
}
# Allocate buildings to people
all_adults = []
all_students = []
for family in family_factory.families:
adults = [human for human in family if isinstance(human, Adult)]
students = [human for human in family if isinstance(human, K12Student)]
home_district.allocate(family, True, True, True)
work_district.allocate(adults)
school_district.allocate(students, True)
for human in family:
age_group_sets[type(human)].append(human)
human.home_district = home_district
home_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(
human).humans.append(human)
for adult in adults:
adult.work_district = work_district
all_adults.append(adult)
for student in students:
student.school_district = school_district
all_students.append(student)
# Set tribes
adult_rf = HomophilyRelationshipFactory(model, all_adults)
student_rf = HomophilyRelationshipFactory(model, all_students)
# exit()
count = 0
for family in family_factory.families:
for human in family:
count += 1
human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP] = age_group_sets[type(human)]
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FAMILY] = family
if isinstance(human, Adult):
human.unique_id = "Adult" + str(count)
human.tribe[
TribeSelector.COWORKER] = work_district.get_buildings(
human)[0].get_unit(human).allocation
t1 = adult_rf.build_tribe(human,
human.tribe[TribeSelector.COWORKER],
1, office_capacity)
t2 = adult_rf.build_tribe(human,
human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP],
1, 20)
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND] = t1
for h in t2:
if h not in human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND]:
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND].append(h)
elif isinstance(human, K12Student):
human.unique_id = "K12Student" + str(count)
human.tribe[
TribeSelector.CLASSMATE] = school_district.get_buildings(
human)[0].get_unit(human).allocation
t1 = student_rf.build_tribe(
human, human.tribe[TribeSelector.CLASSMATE], 1,
classroom_capacity)
t2 = student_rf.build_tribe(
human, human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP], 1, 20)
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND] = t1
for h in t2:
if h not in human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND]:
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND].append(h)
elif isinstance(human, Elder):
human.unique_id = "Elder" + str(count)
elif isinstance(human, Infant):
human.unique_id = "Infant" + str(count)
elif isinstance(human, Toddler):
human.unique_id = "Toddler" + str(count)
def is_contagious(self):
if self.is_infected() and self.infection_days_count >= self.infection_latency:
if self.is_symptomatic() or flip_coin(get_parameters().get('asymptomatic_contagion_probability')):
return True
return False
def setup_grid_layout(model, population_size, home_grid_height,
home_grid_width, work_height, work_width, school_height,
school_width):
#Makes a grid of homogeneous home districts, overlaid by school and work districts.
#home_grid_height is the number of home districts high the grid is, and
#home_grid_width is the nmber of home districts wide the grid is
#school height and work height are how many home districts high a school
#district and work are respectively, and the same for their length.
#each begins in grid 0,0 and cover the orignal home district grid.
#Persons assigned to the home districts are also assigned to the school
#and work districts that cover them. The parameters determine the amount
#of leakage across groups of people. With parameters (10,10,1,1,1,1) you get 100
#completely separated districts with no leakage. With parameters (6,6,2,2,3,3) you
#get a grid where every one is connected to everyone else, but there is a
#degree of separation. For example, a person in home district (0,0) can be infected
#by a person in (5,5) but it would be bridged by three infections, slowing the
#virus down. Larger sizes for work and school districts enable faster spread. Fastest
#spread occurs with parameters (1,1,1,1,1,1) or equivalently (10,10, 10,10,10,10)
#or any of the same number
#Since this is just a way to allocate human interactions, no label is needed and
#the grid need not be saved, for interactions to occur, although this inforamtion
#may be useful for visualizations.
work_building_capacity = 20
office_capacity = 10
work_building_occupacy_rate = 0.5
appartment_building_capacity = 20
appartment_capacity = 5
appartment_building_occupacy_rate = 0.5
school_capacity = 50
classroom_capacity = 20
school_occupacy_rate = 0.5
# Build empty districts
# https://docs.google.com/document/d/1imCNXOyoyecfD_sVNmKpmbWVB6xqP-FWlHELAyOg1Vs/edit
home_districts = []
work_districts = []
school_districts = []
school_map = {}
work_map = {}
school_grid_height = math.ceil(home_grid_height / school_height)
school_grid_width = math.ceil(home_grid_width / school_width)
work_grid_height = math.ceil(home_grid_height / work_height)
work_grid_width = math.ceil(home_grid_width / work_width)
for hw in range(home_grid_width):
for hh in range(home_grid_height):
home_district = build_district(
f"Home ({hh},{hw})", model, population_size,
appartment_building_capacity,
appartment_capacity, appartment_building_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.021, 0.12)) # normal_ci(0.021, 0.12, 10)
home_district.debug = model.debug
home_districts.append(home_district)
home_number = hw * home_grid_height + hh
assert home_number == len(home_districts) - 1
sh = hh // school_height
sw = hw // school_width
school_number = sw * school_grid_height + sh
school_map[home_number] = school_number
wh = hh // work_height
ww = hw // work_width
work_number = ww * work_grid_height + wh
work_map[home_number] = work_number
for ww in range(work_grid_width):
for wh in range(work_grid_height):
work_district = build_district(
f"Work ({wh},{ww})", model, population_size,
work_building_capacity,
office_capacity, work_building_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.007, 0.06)) # normal_ci(0.007, 0.06, 10)
# Add Restaurants to work_district
for i in range(get_parameters().
params['restaurant_count_per_work_district']):
if flip_coin(0.5):
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FAST_FOOD
rtype = "FASTFOOD"
else:
restaurant_type = RestaurantType.FANCY
rtype = "FANCY"
restaurant = Restaurant(
normal_cap(
get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_mean'],
get_parameters().params['restaurant_capacity_stdev'],
16, 200), restaurant_type, flip_coin(0.5), model, '',
rtype + '-' + str(i) + f"({wh},{ww})")
work_district.locations.append(restaurant)
for i in range(2):
bar = Restaurant(normal_cap(100, 20, 50,
200), RestaurantType.BAR,
flip_coin(0.5), model, '',
'BAR-' + str(i) + f"({wh},{ww})")
work_district.locations.append(bar)
work_district.debug = model.debug
work_districts.append(work_district)
for sw in range(school_grid_width):
for sh in range(school_grid_height):
school_district = build_district(
f"School ({sh},{sw})", model, population_size, school_capacity,
classroom_capacity, school_occupacy_rate,
beta_range(0.014, 0.08)) # normal_ci(0.014, 0.08, 10)
school_district.debug = model.debug
school_districts.append(school_district)
#print ("work_map")
#print (work_map)
#print ("school_map")
#print (school_map)
# Build families
family_factory = FamilyFactory(model)
family_factory.factory(population_size)
model.global_count.total_population = family_factory.human_count
# print(family_factory)
age_group_sets = {
Infant: [],
Toddler: [],
K12Student: [],
Adult: [],
Elder: []
}
# Allocate buildings to people
#print ("home_districts")
#print (home_districts)
#print ("work_districts")
#print (work_districts)
#print ("school_districts")
#print (school_districts)
all_adults = []
all_students = []
for family in family_factory.families:
adults = [human for human in family if isinstance(human, Adult)]
students = [human for human in family if isinstance(human, K12Student)]
home_district_num = np.random.randint(0, len(home_districts))
#print("home_district_num")
#print(home_district_num)
home_district = home_districts[home_district_num]
work_district = work_districts[work_map[home_district_num]]
school_district = school_districts[school_map[home_district_num]]
home_district.allocate(family, True, True, True)
work_district.allocate(adults)
school_district.allocate(students, True)
for human in family:
age_group_sets[type(human)].append(human)
human.home_district = home_district
home_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(
human).humans.append(human)
for adult in adults:
adult.work_district = work_district
all_adults.append(adult)
for student in students:
student.school_district = school_district
all_students.append(student)
# Set tribes
adult_rf = HomophilyRelationshipFactory(model, all_adults)
student_rf = HomophilyRelationshipFactory(model, all_students)
# exit()
count = 0
for family in family_factory.families:
for human in family:
work_district = human.work_district
school_district = human.school_district
count += 1
human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP] = age_group_sets[type(human)]
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FAMILY] = family
if isinstance(human, Adult):
human.unique_id = "Adult" + str(count)
#print(work_district.get_buildings(human))
#print(work_district.get_buildings(human))
#print(workd_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(human))
#print(workd_district.get_buildings(human)[0].get_unit(human))
human.tribe[
TribeSelector.COWORKER] = work_district.get_buildings(
human)[0].get_unit(human).allocation
t1 = adult_rf.build_tribe(human,
human.tribe[TribeSelector.COWORKER],
1, office_capacity)
t2 = adult_rf.build_tribe(human,
human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP],
1, 20)
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND] = t1
for h in t2:
if h not in human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND]:
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND].append(h)
elif isinstance(human, K12Student):
human.unique_id = "K12Student" + str(count)
human.tribe[
TribeSelector.CLASSMATE] = school_district.get_buildings(
human)[0].get_unit(human).allocation
t1 = student_rf.build_tribe(
human, human.tribe[TribeSelector.CLASSMATE], 1,
classroom_capacity)
t2 = student_rf.build_tribe(
human, human.tribe[TribeSelector.AGE_GROUP], 1, 20)
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND] = t1
for h in t2:
if h not in human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND]:
human.tribe[TribeSelector.FRIEND].append(h)
elif isinstance(human, Elder):
human.unique_id = "Elder" + str(count)
elif isinstance(human, Infant):
human.unique_id = "Infant" + str(count)
elif isinstance(human, Toddler):
human.unique_id = "Toddler" + str(count)
def spread_infection(self):
for h1 in self.humans:
for h2 in self.humans:
if h1 != h2:
if flip_coin(self.spreading_rate / len(self.humans)):
self.check_spreading(h1, h2)
def test_flip_coin():
assert type(base.flip_coin(0.5)) == bool
with pytest.raises(TypeError):
base.flip_coin("50")