def runner(self):
'''
Method to run the model
'''
# baseline compute
self.base_ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(self.spec1)
if self.spec1.time_path:
self.base_tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(self.spec1)
# reform compute
# a bit more complicated because will need stuff from baseline
self.reform_ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(self.spec2)
if self.spec2.time_path:
self.reform_tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(self.spec2)
def minstat(beta_guesses, *args):
'''
This function generates the weighted sum of squared differences
between the model and data moments.
Args:
beta_guesses (array-like): a vector of length J with the betas
args (tuple): length 6 tuple, variables needed for minimizer
Returns:
distance (scalar): weighted, squared deviation between data and
model moments
'''
# unpack args tuple
data_moments, W, p, client = args
# Update beta in parameters object with beta guesses
p.beta = beta_guesses
# Solve model SS
print('Baseline = ', p.baseline)
ss_output = SS.run_SS(p, client=client)
# Compute moments from model SS
model_moments = calc_moments(ss_output, p)
# distance with levels
distance = np.dot(
np.dot((np.array(model_moments) - np.array(data_moments)).T, W),
np.array(model_moments) - np.array(data_moments))
print('DATA and MODEL DISTANCE: ', distance)
return distance
def test_run_SS(input_path, expected_path):
# Test SS.run_SS function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
input_tuple = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', input_path))
(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params,
small_open_params, baseline, baseline_spending, baseline_dir) =\
input_tuple
p = Specifications()
(p.J, p.S, p.T, p.BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon, Z,
p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n_ss, tau_payroll, tau_bq, p.rho,
p.omega_SS, p.budget_balance, alpha_T, p.debt_ratio_ss, tau_b, delta_tau,
lambdas, imm_rates, p.e, retire, p.mean_income_data, h_wealth, p_wealth,
m_wealth, p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon) = ss_params
p.Z = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * Z
p.tau_bq = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * 0.0
p.tau_payroll = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_payroll
p.alpha_T = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * alpha_T
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.h_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * h_wealth
p.p_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * p_wealth
p.m_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * m_wealth
p.retire = (np.ones(p.T + p.S) * retire).astype(int)
p.lambdas = lambdas.reshape(p.J, 1)
p.imm_rates = imm_rates.reshape(1, p.S)
p.tax_func_type = 'DEP'
p.baseline = baseline
p.baseline_spending = baseline_spending
p.baseline_dir = baseline_dir
p.analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params =\
income_tax_params
p.etr_params = np.transpose(
etr_params.reshape(p.S, 1, etr_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.mtrx_params = np.transpose(
mtrx_params.reshape(p.S, 1, mtrx_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.mtry_params = np.transpose(
mtry_params.reshape(p.S, 1, mtry_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.maxiter, p.mindist_SS = iterative_params
p.chi_b, p.chi_n = chi_params
p.small_open, ss_firm_r, ss_hh_r = small_open_params
p.ss_firm_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_firm_r
p.ss_hh_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_hh_r
p.num_workers = 1
test_dict = SS.run_SS(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', expected_path))
# delete values key-value pairs that are not in both dicts
del expected_dict['bssmat'], expected_dict['chi_n'], expected_dict['chi_b']
del test_dict['etr_ss'], test_dict['mtrx_ss'], test_dict['mtry_ss']
test_dict['IITpayroll_revenue'] = (test_dict['total_revenue_ss'] -
test_dict['business_revenue'])
del test_dict['T_Pss'], test_dict['T_BQss'], test_dict['T_Wss']
del test_dict['resource_constraint_error'], test_dict['T_Css']
test_dict['revenue_ss'] = test_dict.pop('total_revenue_ss')
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
assert (np.allclose(test_dict[k], v))
def test_run_SS(baseline, param_updates, filename, dask_client):
# Test SS.run_SS function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
if baseline is False:
tax_func_path_baseline = os.path.join(CUR_PATH,
'TxFuncEst_baseline.pkl')
tax_func_path = os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'TxFuncEst_policy.pkl')
execute.runner(constants.BASELINE_DIR,
constants.BASELINE_DIR,
time_path=False,
baseline=True,
og_spec=param_updates,
run_micro=False,
tax_func_path=tax_func_path_baseline)
else:
tax_func_path = os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'TxFuncEst_baseline.pkl')
p = Specifications(baseline=baseline,
client=dask_client,
num_workers=NUM_WORKERS)
p.update_specifications(param_updates)
p.get_tax_function_parameters(None,
run_micro=False,
tax_func_path=tax_func_path)
test_dict = SS.run_SS(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', filename))
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
assert (np.allclose(test_dict[k], v))
def test_constant_demographics_TPI():
'''
This tests solves the model under the assumption of constant
demographics, a balanced budget, and tax functions that do not vary
over time.
In this case, given how initial guesss for the time
path are made, the time path should be solved for on the first
iteration and the values all along the time path should equal their
steady-state values.
'''
output_base = "./OUTPUT"
baseline_dir = "./OUTPUT"
user_params = {
'constant_demographics': True,
'budget_balance': True,
'zero_taxes': True,
'maxiter': 2
}
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
reform={},
guid='')
spec.update_specifications(user_params)
print('path for tax functions: ', spec.output_base)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(None, False)
# Run SS
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, None)
# save SS results
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, None)
print(
'Max diff btwn SS and TP bsplus1 = ',
np.absolute(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :] -
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']).max())
print('Max diff btwn SS and TP Y = ',
np.absolute(tpi_output['Y'][:spec.T] - ss_outputs['Yss']).max())
assert (np.allclose(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :],
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']))
def test_run_TPI(baseline, param_updates, filename, tmp_path, dask_client):
'''
Test TPI.run_TPI function. Provide inputs to function and
ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
'''
baseline_dir = os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'baseline')
if baseline:
output_base = baseline_dir
else:
output_base = os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'reform')
p = Specifications(baseline=baseline,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
output_base=output_base,
test=True,
client=dask_client,
num_workers=NUM_WORKERS)
p.update_specifications(param_updates)
p.maxiter = 2 # this test runs through just two iterations
p.get_tax_function_parameters(None,
run_micro=False,
tax_func_path=os.path.join(
CUR_PATH, '..', 'data', 'tax_functions',
'TxFuncEst_baseline_CPS.pkl'))
# Need to run SS first to get results
SS.ENFORCE_SOLUTION_CHECKS = False
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(p, None)
if p.baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
TPI.ENFORCE_SOLUTION_CHECKS = False
test_dict = TPI.run_TPI(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(filename)
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
try:
assert (np.allclose(test_dict[k][:p.T],
v[:p.T],
rtol=1e-04,
atol=1e-04))
except ValueError:
assert (np.allclose(test_dict[k][:p.T, :, :],
v[:p.T, :, :],
rtol=1e-04,
atol=1e-04))
def compute_se(beta_hat, W, K, p, h=0.01, client=None):
"""
Function to compute standard errors for the SMM estimator.
Args:
beta_hat (array-like): estimates of beta parameters
W (Numpy array): weighting matrix
K (int): number of moments
p (OG-USA Specifications object): model parameters
h (scalar): percentage to move parameters for numerical derivatives
client (Dask Client object): Dask client
Returns:
beta_se (array-like): standard errors for beta estimates
VCV_params (Numpy array): VCV matrix for parameter estimates
"""
# compute numerical derivatives that will need for SE's
model_moments_low = np.zeros((p.J, K))
model_moments_high = np.zeros((p.J, K))
beta_low = beta_hat
beta_high = beta_hat
for i in range(len(beta_hat)):
# compute moments with downward change in param
beta_low[i] = beta_hat[i] * (1 + h)
p.beta = beta_low
ss_output = ss_output = SS.run_SS(p, client=client)
model_moments_low[i, :] = calc_moments(ss_output, p)
# compute moments with upward change in param
beta_high[i] = beta_hat[i] * (1 - h)
p.beta = beta_low
ss_output = ss_output = SS.run_SS(p, client=client)
model_moments_high[i, :] = calc_moments(ss_output, p)
deriv_moments = (model_moments_high - model_moments_low).T / (2 * h *
beta_hat)
VCV_params = np.linalg.inv(
np.dot(np.dot(deriv_moments.T, W), deriv_moments))
beta_se = (np.diag(VCV_params))**(1 / 2)
return beta_se, VCV_params
def test_constant_demographics_TPI(dask_client):
'''
This tests solves the model under the assumption of constant
demographics, a balanced budget, and tax functions that do not vary
over time.
In this case, given how initial guesss for the time
path are made, the time path should be solved for on the first
iteration and the values all along the time path should equal their
steady-state values.
'''
# Create output directory structure
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=OUTPUT_DIR,
baseline_dir=OUTPUT_DIR,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
guid='',
client=dask_client,
num_workers=NUM_WORKERS)
og_spec = {
'constant_demographics': True,
'budget_balance': True,
'zero_taxes': True,
'maxiter': 2,
'r_gov_shift': 0.0,
'zeta_D': [0.0, 0.0],
'zeta_K': [0.0, 0.0],
'debt_ratio_ss': 1.0,
'initial_foreign_debt_ratio': 0.0,
'start_year': 2019,
'cit_rate': [0.0],
'PIA_rate_bkt_1': 0.0,
'PIA_rate_bkt_2': 0.0,
'PIA_rate_bkt_3': 0.0,
'eta':
(spec.omega_SS.reshape(spec.S, 1) * spec.lambdas.reshape(1, spec.J))
}
spec.update_specifications(og_spec)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(None, False, tax_func_path=TAX_FUNC_PATH)
# Run SS
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, None)
# save SS results
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
# Run TPI
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, None)
assert (np.allclose(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :],
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']))
def test_constant_demographics_TPI():
'''
This tests solves the model under the assumption of constant
demographics, a balanced budget, and tax functions that do not vary
over time.
In this case, given how initial guesss for the time
path are made, the time path should be solved for on the first
iteration and the values all along the time path should equal their
steady-state values.
'''
output_base = "./OUTPUT"
baseline_dir = "./OUTPUT"
user_params = {'constant_demographics': True,
'budget_balance': True,
'zero_taxes': True,
'maxiter': 2}
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False, output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir, test=False,
time_path=True, baseline=True, reform={},
guid='')
spec.update_specifications(user_params)
print('path for tax functions: ', spec.output_base)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(None, False)
# Run SS
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, None)
# save SS results
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, None)
print('Max diff btwn SS and TP bsplus1 = ',
np.absolute(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :] -
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']).max())
print('Max diff btwn SS and TP Y = ',
np.absolute(tpi_output['Y'][:spec.T] -
ss_outputs['Yss']).max())
assert(np.allclose(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :],
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']))
def test_constant_demographics_TPI():
'''
This tests solves the model under the assumption of constant
demographics, a balanced budget, and tax functions that do not vary
over time.
In this case, given how initial guesss for the time
path are made, the time path should be solved for on the first
iteration and the values all along the time path should equal their
steady-state values.
'''
output_base = os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'OUTPUT')
baseline_dir = output_base
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError:
pass
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
guid='')
og_spec = {
'constant_demographics': True,
'budget_balance': True,
'zero_taxes': True,
'maxiter': 2,
'eta':
(spec.omega_SS.reshape(spec.S, 1) * spec.lambdas.reshape(1, spec.J))
}
spec.update_specifications(og_spec)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(None, False)
# Run SS
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, None)
# save SS results
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Run TPI
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, None)
assert (np.allclose(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :],
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']))
def test_constant_demographics_TPI_small_open():
'''
This tests solves the model under the assumption of constant
demographics, a balanced budget, and tax functions that do not vary
over time, as well as with a small open economy assumption.
'''
# Create output directory structure
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=OUTPUT_DIR,
baseline_dir=OUTPUT_DIR,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
guid='')
og_spec = {
'constant_demographics': True,
'budget_balance': True,
'zero_taxes': True,
'maxiter': 2,
'r_gov_shift': 0.0,
'zeta_D': [0.0, 0.0],
'zeta_K': [1.0],
'debt_ratio_ss': 1.0,
'initial_foreign_debt_ratio': 0.0,
'start_year': 2019,
'cit_rate': [0.0],
'PIA_rate_bkt_1': 0.0,
'PIA_rate_bkt_2': 0.0,
'PIA_rate_bkt_3': 0.0,
'eta':
(spec.omega_SS.reshape(spec.S, 1) * spec.lambdas.reshape(1, spec.J))
}
spec.update_specifications(og_spec)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(None, False, tax_func_path=TAX_FUNC_PATH)
# Run SS
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, None)
# save SS results
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
# Run TPI
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, None)
assert (np.allclose(tpi_output['bmat_splus1'][:spec.T, :, :],
ss_outputs['bssmat_splus1']))
def test_run_SS(input_path, expected_path):
# Test SS.run_SS function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
input_tuple = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', input_path))
(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params,
small_open_params, baseline, baseline_spending, baseline_dir) =\
input_tuple
income_tax_params = ('DEP', ) + income_tax_params
test_dict = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,
chi_params, small_open_params, baseline,
baseline_spending, baseline_dir)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', expected_path))
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
assert (np.allclose(test_dict[k], v))
def matcher(d_guess, params):
income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,\
chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir = params
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
etr_params[:, 3] = d_guess
mtrx_params[:, 3] = d_guess
mtry_params[:, 3] = d_guess
income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
error = abs(receipts_to_match - receipts_new)
if d_guess <= 0:
error = 1e14
print 'Error in taxes:', error
return error
def solve_model(params, d):
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,\
chi_params, baseline ,baseline_dir = params
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
etr_params[:, 3] = d
mtrx_params[:, 3] = d
mtry_params[:, 3] = d
income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
ss_dir = os.path.join("./OUTPUT_INCOME_REFORM/sigma2.0",
"SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
new_error = receipts_to_match - receipts_new
print 'Error in taxes:', error
print 'New income tax:', d
return new_error
def test_run_TPI():
# Test TPI.run_TPI function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
input_tuple = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', 'run_TPI_inputs.pkl'))
(income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, small_open_params,
initial_values, SS_values, fiscal_params, biz_tax_params,
output_dir, baseline_spending) = input_tuple
tpi_params = tpi_params + [True]
initial_values = initial_values + (0.0,)
p = Specifications()
(J, S, T, BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon,
Z, p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n, tau_b, delta_tau,
tau_payroll, tau_bq, p.rho, p.omega, N_tilde, lambdas,
p.imm_rates, p.e, retire, p.mean_income_data, factor, h_wealth,
p_wealth, m_wealth, p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon, p.chi_b, p.chi_n,
theta, p.baseline) = tpi_params
new_param_values = {
'J': J,
'S': S,
'T': T,
'eta': (np.ones((S, J)) / (S * J))
}
# update parameters instance with new values for test
p.update_specifications(new_param_values, raise_errors=False)
(J, S, T, BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon,
Z, p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n, tau_b, delta_tau,
tau_payroll, tau_bq, p.rho, p.omega, N_tilde, lambdas,
p.imm_rates, p.e, retire, p.mean_income_data, factor, h_wealth,
p_wealth, m_wealth, p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon, p.chi_b, p.chi_n,
theta, p.baseline) = tpi_params
p.eta = p.omega.reshape(T + S, S, 1) * lambdas.reshape(1, J)
p.Z = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * Z
p.tau_bq = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * 0.0
p.tau_payroll = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_payroll
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.h_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * h_wealth
p.p_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * p_wealth
p.m_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * m_wealth
p.retire = (np.ones(p.T + p.S) * retire).astype(int)
p.small_open, ss_firm_r, ss_hh_r = small_open_params
p.ss_firm_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_firm_r
p.ss_hh_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_hh_r
p.maxiter, p.mindist_SS, p.mindist_TPI = iterative_params
(p.budget_balance, alpha_T, alpha_G, p.tG1, p.tG2, p.rho_G,
p.debt_ratio_ss) = fiscal_params
p.alpha_T = np.concatenate((alpha_T, np.ones(40) * alpha_T[-1]))
p.alpha_G = np.concatenate((alpha_G, np.ones(40) * alpha_G[-1]))
(tau_b, delta_tau) = biz_tax_params
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params =\
income_tax_params
p.etr_params = np.transpose(etr_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.mtrx_params = np.transpose(mtrx_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.mtry_params = np.transpose(mtry_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.lambdas = lambdas.reshape(p.J, 1)
p.output = output_dir
p.baseline_spending = baseline_spending
p.frac_tax_payroll = 0.5 * np.ones(p.T + p.S)
p.num_workers = 1
(K0, b_sinit, b_splus1init, factor, initial_b, initial_n,
p.omega_S_preTP, initial_debt, D0) = initial_values
# Need to run SS first to get results
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(p, None)
if p.baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
test_dict = TPI.run_TPI(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', 'run_TPI_outputs.pkl'))
# delete values key-value pairs that are not in both dicts
del expected_dict['I_total']
del test_dict['etr_path'], test_dict['mtrx_path'], test_dict['mtry_path']
del test_dict['bmat_s']
test_dict['b_mat'] = test_dict.pop('bmat_splus1')
test_dict['REVENUE'] = test_dict.pop('total_revenue')
test_dict['T_H'] = test_dict.pop('TR')
test_dict['IITpayroll_revenue'] = (test_dict['REVENUE'][:160] -
test_dict['business_revenue'])
del test_dict['T_P'], test_dict['T_BQ'], test_dict['T_W']
del test_dict['y_before_tax_mat'], test_dict['K_f'], test_dict['K_d']
del test_dict['D_d'], test_dict['D_f']
del test_dict['new_borrowing_f'], test_dict['debt_service_f']
del test_dict['iit_revenue'], test_dict['payroll_tax_revenue']
del test_dict['resource_constraint_error'], test_dict['T_C']
del test_dict['r_gov'], test_dict['r_hh'], test_dict['tr_path']
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
try:
assert(np.allclose(test_dict[k], v, rtol=1e-04, atol=1e-04))
except ValueError:
assert(np.allclose(test_dict[k], v[:p.T, :, :], rtol=1e-04,
atol=1e-04))
def chi_estimate(p, client=None):
'''
--------------------------------------------------------------------
This function calls others to obtain the data momements and then
runs the simulated method of moments estimation by calling the
minimization routine.
INPUTS:
income_tax_parameters = length 4 tuple, (analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params)
ss_parameters = length 21 tuple, (J, S, T, BW, beta, sigma, alpha, Z, delta, ltilde, nu, g_y,\
g_n_ss, tau_payroll, retire, mean_income_data,\
h_wealth, p_wealth, m_wealth, b_ellipse, upsilon)
iterative_params = [2,] vector, vector with max iterations and tolerance
for SS solution
chi_guesses = [J+S,] vector, initial guesses of chi_b and chi_n stacked together
baseline_dir = string, path where baseline results located
OTHER FUNCTIONS AND FILES CALLED BY THIS FUNCTION:
wealth.compute_wealth_moments()
labor.labor_data_moments()
minstat()
OBJECTS CREATED WITHIN FUNCTION:
wealth_moments = [J+2,] array, wealth moments from data
labor_moments = [S,] array, labor moments from data
data_moments = [J+2+S,] array, wealth and labor moments stacked
bnds = [S+J,] array, bounds for parameter estimates
chi_guesses_flat = [J+S,] vector, initial guesses of chi_b and chi_n stacked
min_arg = length 6 tuple, variables needed for minimizer
est_output = dictionary, output from minimizer
chi_params = [J+S,] vector, parameters estimates for chi_b and chi_n stacked
objective_func_min = scalar, minimum of statistical objective function
OUTPUT:
./baseline_dir/Calibration/chi_estimation.pkl
RETURNS: chi_params
--------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
baseline_dir = "./OUTPUT"
#chi_b_guess = np.ones(80)
# a0 = 5.38312524e+01
# a1 = -1.55746248e+00
# a2 = 1.77689237e-02
# a3 = -8.04751667e-06
# a4 = 5.65432019e-08
""" Kei's Vals
a0 = 170
a1 = -2.19154735e+00
a2 = -2.22817460e-02
a3 = 4.49993507e-04
a4 = -1.34197054e-06
"""
""" Adam's Vals 1
a0 = 2.59572155e+02
a1 = -2.35122641e+01
a2 = 4.27581467e-01
a3 = -3.40808933e-03
a4 = 1.00404321e-05
"""
a0 = 1.10807470e+03 #5.19144310e+02
#a0 = 1.10807470e+03#5.19144310e+02
a1 = -1.05805189e+02 #-4.70245283e+01
a2 = 1.92411660e+00 #8.55162933e-01
a3 = -1.53364020e-02 #-6.81617866e-03
a4 = 4.51819445e-05 #2.00808642e-05
# a0 = 2.07381e+02
# a1 = -1.03143105e+01
# a2 = 1.42760562e-01
# a3 = -8.41089078e-04
# a4 = 1.85173227e-06
# sixty_plus_chi = 300
params_init = np.array([a0, a1, a2, a3, a4])
# Generate labor data moments
labor_hours = np.array([167, 165, 165, 165, 165, 166, 165, 165,
164]) #, 166, 164])
labor_part_rate = np.array(
[0.69, 0.849, 0.849, 0.847, 0.847, 0.859, 0.859, 0.709,
0.709]) #, 0.212, 0.212])
employ_rate = np.array(
[0.937, 0.954, 0.954, 0.966, 0.966, 0.97, 0.97, 0.968,
0.968]) #, 0.978, 0.978])
labor_hours_adj = labor_hours * labor_part_rate * employ_rate
# get fraction of time endowment worked (assume time
# endowment is 24 hours minus required time to sleep 6.5 hours)
labor_moments = labor_hours_adj * 12 / (365 * 17.5)
#labor_moments[9] = 0.1
#labor_moments[10] = 0.1
# combine moments
data_moments = np.array(list(labor_moments.flatten()))
# weighting matrix
W = np.identity(p.J + 2 + p.S)
W = np.identity(9)
ages = np.linspace(20, 65, p.S // 2 + 5)
#ages = np.linspace(20, 100, p.S)
est_output = opt.minimize(minstat_init_calibrate, params_init,\
args=(p, client, data_moments, W, ages),\
method="L-BFGS-B",\
tol=1e-15, options={'eps': 0.1})
a0, a1, a2, a3, a4 = est_output.x
#chi_n = chebyshev_func(ages, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
chi_n = np.ones(p.S)
#ages_full = np.linspace(20, 100, p.S)
#chi_n = chebyshev_func(ages_full, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
chi_n[:p.S // 2 + 5] = chebyshev_func(ages, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
slope = 1500 #chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 1] - chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 2]
chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 -
1:] = (np.linspace(65, 100, 36) - 65) * slope + chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 -
1]
chi_n[chi_n < 0.5] = 0.5
p.chi_n = chi_n
print('PARAMS for Chebyshev:', est_output.x)
with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
text_file.write('\nPARAMS for Chebyshev: ' + str(est_output.x) + '\n')
pickle.dump(chi_n, open("chi_n.p", "wb"))
ss_output = SS.run_SS(p)
return ss_output
def test_run_TPI():
# Test TPI.run_TPI function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
input_tuple = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data/run_TPI_inputs.pkl'))
(income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, small_open_params,
initial_values, SS_values, fiscal_params, biz_tax_params,
output_dir, baseline_spending) = input_tuple
tpi_params = tpi_params + [True]
initial_values = initial_values + (0.0,)
p = Specifications()
(J, S, T, BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon,
Z, p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n, tau_b, delta_tau,
tau_payroll, tau_bq, p.rho, p.omega, N_tilde, lambdas,
p.imm_rates, p.e, retire, p.mean_income_data, factor, h_wealth,
p_wealth, m_wealth, p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon, p.chi_b, p.chi_n,
theta, p.baseline) = tpi_params
new_param_values = {
'J': J,
'S': S,
'T': T
}
# update parameters instance with new values for test
p.update_specifications(new_param_values, raise_errors=False)
(J, S, T, BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon,
Z, p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n, tau_b, delta_tau,
tau_payroll, tau_bq, p.rho, p.omega, N_tilde, lambdas,
p.imm_rates, p.e, retire, p.mean_income_data, factor, h_wealth,
p_wealth, m_wealth, p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon, p.chi_b, p.chi_n,
theta, p.baseline) = tpi_params
p.Z = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * Z
p.tau_bq = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * 0.0
p.tau_payroll = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_payroll
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.h_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * h_wealth
p.p_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * p_wealth
p.m_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * m_wealth
p.retire = (np.ones(p.T + p.S) * retire).astype(int)
p.small_open, ss_firm_r, ss_hh_r = small_open_params
p.ss_firm_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_firm_r
p.ss_hh_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * ss_hh_r
p.maxiter, p.mindist_SS, p.mindist_TPI = iterative_params
(p.budget_balance, alpha_T, alpha_G, p.tG1, p.tG2, p.rho_G,
p.debt_ratio_ss) = fiscal_params
p.alpha_T = np.concatenate((alpha_T, np.ones(40) * alpha_T[-1]))
p.alpha_G = np.concatenate((alpha_G, np.ones(40) * alpha_G[-1]))
(tau_b, delta_tau) = biz_tax_params
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params =\
income_tax_params
p.etr_params = np.transpose(etr_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.mtrx_params = np.transpose(mtrx_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.mtry_params = np.transpose(mtry_params, (1, 0, 2))[:p.T, :, :]
p.lambdas = lambdas.reshape(p.J, 1)
p.output = output_dir
p.baseline_spending = baseline_spending
p.num_workers = 1
(K0, b_sinit, b_splus1init, factor, initial_b, initial_n,
p.omega_S_preTP, initial_debt, D0) = initial_values
# Need to run SS first to get results
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(p, None)
if p.baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(p.output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
test_dict = TPI.run_TPI(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data/run_TPI_outputs.pkl'))
# delete values key-value pairs that are not in both dicts
del test_dict['etr_path'], test_dict['mtrx_path'], test_dict['mtry_path']
del test_dict['bmat_s']
test_dict['b_mat'] = test_dict.pop('bmat_splus1')
test_dict['REVENUE'] = test_dict.pop('total_revenue')
test_dict['IITpayroll_revenue'] = (test_dict['REVENUE'][:160] -
test_dict['business_revenue'])
del test_dict['T_P'], test_dict['T_BQ'], test_dict['T_W']
del test_dict['resource_constraint_error'], test_dict['T_C']
del test_dict['r_gov'], test_dict['r_hh']
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
try:
assert(np.allclose(test_dict[k], v, rtol=1e-04, atol=1e-04))
except ValueError:
assert(np.allclose(test_dict[k], v[:p.T, :, :], rtol=1e-04,
atol=1e-04))
def runner(output_base, baseline_dir, baseline=False, analytical_mtrs=True, age_specific=False, reform={}, user_params={}, guid='', run_micro=True):
#from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demographics, income
from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demog, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ssinit_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SSinit")
tpiinit_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPIinit")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ssinit_dir, tpiinit_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline, analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs, age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'], reform=reform, guid=guid)
print ("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(user_params['frisch'],
run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
# Generate Wealth data moments
wealth.get_wealth_data(run_params['lambdas'], run_params['J'], run_params['flag_graphs'], output_dir=output_base)
# Generate labor data moments
labor.labor_data_moments(run_params['flag_graphs'], output_dir=output_base)
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = ['S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age',
'beta', 'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E',
'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter', 'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI',
'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse', 'k_ellipse', 'upsilon',
'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess','etr_params','mtrx_params',
'mtry_params','tau_payroll', 'tau_bq',
'retire', 'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector',
'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'e', 'rho']
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/ss_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_dir, "SS/ss_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the baseline TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, initial_values, SS_values = TPI.create_tpi_params(**sim_params)
# ss_outputs['income_tax_params'] = income_tax_params
# ss_outputs['wealth_tax_params'] = wealth_tax_params
# ss_outputs['ellipse_params'] = ellipse_params
# ss_outputs['parameters'] = parameters
# ss_outputs['N_tilde'] = N_tilde
# ss_outputs['omega_stationary'] = omega_stationary
# ss_outputs['K0'] = K0
# ss_outputs['b_sinit'] = b_sinit
# ss_outputs['b_splus1init'] = b_splus1init
# ss_outputs['L0'] = L0
# ss_outputs['Y0'] = Y0
# ss_outputs['r0'] = r0
# ss_outputs['BQ0'] = BQ0
# ss_outputs['T_H_0'] = T_H_0
# ss_outputs['factor_ss'] = factor
# ss_outputs['tax0'] = tax0
# ss_outputs['c0'] = c0
# ss_outputs['initial_b'] = initial_b
# ss_outputs['initial_n'] = initial_n
# ss_outputs['tau_bq'] = tau_bq
# ss_outputs['g_n_vector'] = g_n_vector
# ss_outputs['output_dir'] = output_base
# with open("ss_outputs.pkl", 'wb') as fp:
# pickle.dump(ss_outputs, fp)
w_path, r_path, T_H_path, BQ_path, Y_path = TPI.run_TPI(income_tax_params,
tpi_params, iterative_params, initial_values, SS_values, output_dir=output_base)
print "getting to here...."
TPI.TP_solutions(w_path, r_path, T_H_path, BQ_path, **ss_outputs)
print "took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() - tick)
def minstat(params, *args):
'''
--------------------------------------------------------------------
This function generates the weighted sum of squared differences
between the model and data moments.
INPUTS:
chi_guesses = [J+S,] vector, initial guesses of chi_b and chi_n stacked together
arg = length 6 tuple, variables needed for minimizer
OTHER FUNCTIONS AND FILES CALLED BY THIS FUNCTION:
SS.run_SS()
calc_moments()
OBJECTS CREATED WITHIN FUNCTION:
ss_output = dictionary, variables from SS of model
model_moments = [J+2+S,] array, moments from the model solution
distance = scalar, weighted, squared deviation between data and model moments
RETURNS: distance
--------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
a0, a1, a2, a3, a4 = params
p, client, data_moments, W, ages = args
chi_n = np.ones(p.S)
#chi_n = chebyshev_func(ages, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
chi_n[:p.S // 2 + 5] = chebyshev_func(ages, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
#chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5:] = sixty_plus_chi
slope = chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 1] - chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 2]
chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 -
1:] = (np.linspace(65, 100, 36) - 65) * slope + chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 -
1]
chi_n[chi_n < 0.5] = 0.5
p.chi_n = chi_n
#print(chi_n)
#with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
# text_file.write('\nPARAMS AT START\n' + str(params) + '\n')
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
print('PARAMS AT START' + str(params))
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
try:
ss_output = SS.run_SS(p, client)
except:
#with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
# text_file.write('\nSteady state not found\n' + str(params) + '\n')
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
print("Steady state not found")
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
return 1e100
#with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
# text_file.write('\nPARAMS AT END\n' + str(params) + '\n')
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
print('PARAMS AT END', params)
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
model_moments = calc_moments(ss_output, p.omega_SS, p.lambdas, p.S, p.J)
#with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
# text_file.write('\nModel moments:\n' + str(model_moments) + '\n')
print('Model moments:', model_moments)
print("-----------------------------------------------------")
# distance with levels
distance = np.dot(
np.dot((np.array(model_moments[:9]) - np.array(data_moments)).T, W),
np.array(model_moments[:9]) - np.array(data_moments))
#distance = ((np.array(model_moments) - np.array(data_moments))**2).sum()
#with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
# text_file.write('\nDATA and MODEL DISTANCE: ' + str(distance) + '\n')
print('DATA and MODEL DISTANCE: ', distance)
# # distance with percentage diffs
# distance = (((model_moments - data_moments)/data_moments)**2).sum()
return distance
def runner(output_base, baseline_dir, test=False, time_path=True, baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=False, age_specific=False, reform={}, user_params={},
guid='', run_micro=True, small_open=False, budget_balance=False, baseline_spending=False):
#from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demographics, income
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
# Make sure options are internally consistent
if baseline==True and baseline_spending==True:
print 'Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, leaving <baseline> True.'
baseline_spending = False
if budget_balance==True and baseline_spending==True:
print 'Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, leaving <budget_balance> True.'
baseline_spending = False
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline, analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs, age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'], reform=reform, guid=guid)
print 'In runner, baseline is ', baseline
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(test=test, baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
run_params['small_open'] = small_open
run_params['budget_balance'] = budget_balance
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating frisch and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(user_params['frisch'],
run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
if 'debt_ratio_ss' in user_params:
run_params['debt_ratio_ss']=user_params['debt_ratio_ss']
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
ending_age = run_params['ending_age']
starting_age = run_params['starting_age']
S = run_params['S']
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify transfer & spending ratios based on user input.
if 'T_shifts' in user_params:
if baseline_spending==False:
print 'updating ALPHA_T with T_shifts in first', user_params['T_shifts'].size, 'periods.'
T_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['T_shifts'], np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_T'].size - user_params['T_shifts'].size)), axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_T'] = run_params['ALPHA_T'] + T_shifts
if 'G_shifts' in user_params:
if baseline_spending==False:
print 'updating ALPHA_G with G_shifts in first', user_params['G_shifts'].size, 'periods.'
G_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['G_shifts'], np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_G'].size - user_params['G_shifts'].size)), axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_G'] = run_params['ALPHA_G'] + G_shifts
from ogusa import SS, TPI
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = ['S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age',
'beta', 'sigma', 'alpha', 'gamma', 'epsilon', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E',
'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter', 'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI',
'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse', 'k_ellipse', 'upsilon',
'small_open', 'budget_balance', 'ss_firm_r', 'ss_hh_r', 'tpi_firm_r', 'tpi_hh_r',
'tG1', 'tG2', 'alpha_T', 'alpha_G', 'ALPHA_T', 'ALPHA_G', 'rho_G', 'debt_ratio_ss',
'tau_b', 'delta_tau',
'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess','etr_params','mtrx_params',
'mtry_params','tau_payroll', 'tau_bq',
'retire', 'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector',
'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates','e', 'rho',
'initial_debt','omega_S_preTP']
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params, small_open_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params, small_open_params, baseline, baseline_spending,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['baseline'] = baseline
sim_params['baseline_spending'] = baseline_spending
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, small_open_params, initial_values, SS_values, fiscal_params, biz_tax_params = TPI.create_tpi_params(**sim_params)
tpi_output, macro_output = TPI.run_TPI(income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, small_open_params, initial_values,
SS_values, fiscal_params, biz_tax_params, output_dir=output_base, baseline_spending=baseline_spending)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_macro_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(macro_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print "Time path iteration complete."
print "It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() - tick)
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
og_spec={},
guid='',
run_micro=True,
data=None,
client=None,
num_workers=1):
'''
This function runs the OG-USA model, solving for the steady-state
and (optionally) the time path equilibrium.
Args:
output_base (str): path to save output to
baseline_dir (str): path where baseline model results are saved
test (bool): whether to run model in test mode (which has
a smaller state space and higher tolerances for solution)
time_path (bool): whether to solve for the time path equlibrium
baseline (bool): whether the model run is the baseline run
iit_reform (dict): Tax-Calculator policy dictionary
og_spec (dict): dictionary with updates to default
parameters in OG-USA
guid (str): id for OG-USA run
run_micro (bool): whether to estimate tax functions from micro
data or load saved parameters from pickle file
data (str or Pandas DataFrame): path to or data to use in
Tax-Calculator
client (Dask client object): client
num_workers (int): number of workers to use for parallelization
with Dask
Returns:
None
'''
tick = time.time()
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError:
pass
print('In runner, baseline is ', baseline)
# Get parameter class
# Note - set run_micro false when initially load class
# Update later with call to spec.get_tax_function_parameters()
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
test=test,
time_path=time_path,
baseline=baseline,
iit_reform=iit_reform,
guid=guid,
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
spec.update_specifications(og_spec)
print('path for tax functions: ', spec.output_base)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
print('JUST SAVED SS output to ', ss_dir)
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
with open(param_dir, "wb") as f:
cloudpickle.dump((spec), f)
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, f)
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "model_params.pkl")
with open(param_dir, "wb") as f:
cloudpickle.dump((spec), f)
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
with open(tpi_vars, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(tpi_output, f)
print("Time path iteration complete.")
print("It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() -
tick))
def chi_estimate(p, client=None):
'''
COPYRIGHT MARCH 22, 2019 KEI IRIZAWA AND ADAM OPPENHEIMER
'''
# Generate labor data moments
labor_hours = np.array([167, 165, 165, 165, 165, 166, 165, 165, 164])#, 166, 164])
labor_part_rate = np.array([0.69, 0.849, 0.849, 0.847, 0.847, 0.859, 0.859, 0.709, 0.709])#, 0.212, 0.212])
employ_rate = np.array([0.937, 0.954, 0.954, 0.966, 0.966, 0.97, 0.97, 0.968, 0.968])#, 0.978, 0.978])
labor_hours_adj = labor_hours * labor_part_rate * employ_rate
labor_moments = labor_hours_adj * 12 / (365 * 17.5)
data_moments_trunc = np.array(list(labor_moments.flatten()))
#ages = np.array([20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60]) + 2.5
#labor_fun = si.splrep(ages, data_moments_trunc)
#ages_full = np.linspace(21, 65, p.S // 2 + 5)
#data_moments = si.splev(ages_full, labor_fun)
data_moments = np.repeat(data_moments_trunc, 5) # Set labor values to equal average over bin
# a0 = 1.25108169e+03
# a1 = -1.19873316e+02
# a2 = 2.20570513e+00
# a3 = -1.76536132e-02
# a4 = 5.19262962e-05
# chi_n = np.ones(p.S)
# chi_n[:p.S // 2 + 5] = chebyshev_func(ages_full, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
# slope = chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 1] - chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 2]
# chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 1:] = (np.linspace(65, 100, 36) - 65) * slope + chi_n[p.S // 2 + 5 - 1]
# chi_n[chi_n < 0.5] = 0.5
chi_n = pickle.load(open("chi_n.p", "rb"))
p.chi_n = chi_n
model_moments = find_moments(p, client)
labor_below = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
labor_above = np.ones(p.S // 2 + 5) * np.inf
chi_below = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
chi_above = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
chi_prev = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
consec_above = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
consec_below = np.zeros(p.S // 2 + 5)
print('About to start the while loop')
eps_val = 0.001
#still_calibrate = ((abs(model_moments - data_moments) > eps_val) & (chi_n[:45] > 0.5))\
# | ((chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments))
still_calibrate = (abs(model_moments - data_moments) > eps_val) & ((chi_n[:45] > 0.5)\
| ((chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments)))
moments_calibrated_per_step = []
while still_calibrate.any():
### Check that 2 consecutive chi_n estimates aren't equal
if (chi_n[:45] == chi_prev).all():
raise RuntimeError('Calibration failure. No chi_n values changed between guesses')
chi_prev = np.copy(chi_n[:45])
### Set above/below arrays based on model moments
above_data_below_above = (model_moments > data_moments) #& (model_moments < labor_above)
below_data_above_below = (model_moments < data_moments) #& (model_moments > labor_below)
# Had to comment out checking if closer than previous guess because if
# the result moves, the convex combination might be outside the range
# and it gets stuck in an infinite loop because the guess never improves
labor_above[above_data_below_above] = model_moments[above_data_below_above]
chi_above[above_data_below_above] = chi_n[:45][above_data_below_above]
labor_below[below_data_above_below] = model_moments[below_data_above_below]
chi_below[below_data_above_below] = chi_n[:45][below_data_above_below]
### Set consecutive above/below values
consec_above[above_data_below_above] += 1
consec_above[below_data_above_below] = 0
consec_below[below_data_above_below] += 1
consec_below[above_data_below_above] = 0
consec = (consec_above >= 4) | (consec_below >= 4)
### Create arrays for labor boundaries
print(str(np.sum(still_calibrate)) + ' labor moments are still being calibrated')
moments_calibrated_per_step.append(np.sum(still_calibrate))
print('Moments calibrated at each iteration (including this iteration):')
print(moments_calibrated_per_step)
both = (((labor_below > 0) & (labor_above < np.inf)) |\
((labor_below == 0) & (labor_above == np.inf))) & (still_calibrate)
above = (labor_below == 0) & (labor_above < np.inf) & (still_calibrate)
below = (labor_below > 0) & (labor_above == np.inf) & (still_calibrate)
print(str(np.sum(both)) + ' labor moments are being convexly shifted')
print(str(np.sum(above)) + ' labor moments are being shifted down')
print(str(np.sum(below)) + ' labor moments are being shifted up')
### Calculate convex combination factor
above_dist = abs(labor_above - data_moments)
below_dist = abs(data_moments - labor_below)
total_dist = above_dist + below_dist
above_factor = below_dist / total_dist
below_factor = above_dist / total_dist
#### Adjust by convex combination factor
chi_n[:45][both] = np.copy(below_factor[both] * chi_below[both] +\
above_factor[both] * chi_above[both])
invalid_factor = np.isnan(chi_n[:45][both]) # Modified
chi_n[:45][both][invalid_factor] = np.copy(0.5 * (chi_below[both][invalid_factor] + chi_above[both][invalid_factor])) # Modified
### Adjust values that aren't bounded both above and below by labor error factors
error_factor = model_moments / data_moments
chi_n[:45][above] = np.copy(np.minimum(error_factor[above] * chi_above[above], 1.02 * chi_above[above]))#np.copy(1.02 * chi_above[above])
chi_n[:45][below] = np.copy(np.maximum(error_factor[below] * chi_below[below], 0.98 * chi_below[below]))#np.copy(0.98 * chi_below[below])
### Solve moments using new chi_n guesses
p.chi_n = chi_n
model_moments = find_moments(p, client)
print('-------------------------------')
print('New model moments:')
print(list(model_moments))
print('Chi_n:')
print(list(chi_n))
print('-------------------------------')
print('Labor moment differences:')
print(model_moments[still_calibrate] - data_moments[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
### Redefine still_calibrate and both based on new model moments
still_calibrate = (abs(model_moments - data_moments) > eps_val) & ((chi_n[:45] > 0.5)\
| ((chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments)))
both = (((labor_below > 0) & (labor_above < np.inf)) |\
((labor_below == 0) & (labor_above == np.inf))) & (still_calibrate)
print('Chi differences:')
print(chi_below[still_calibrate] - chi_above[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
print('Chi below:')
print(chi_below[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
print('Chi above:')
print(chi_above[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
print('Labor above:')
print(labor_above[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
print('Labor below:')
print(labor_below[still_calibrate])
print('-------------------------------')
### Fix stuck boundaries
#still_calibrate_stuck_1 = ((abs(model_moments - data_moments) > eps_val) & (chi_n[:45] > 0.5))\
#| ((chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments))
#still_calibrate_stuck_2 = ((abs(model_moments - data_moments) > 10 * eps_val) & (chi_n[:45] > 0.5))\
#| ((chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments))
#stuck_1 = ((chi_below - chi_above) < 10 * eps_val) & (still_calibrate_stuck_1)
#stuck_2 = ((chi_below - chi_above) < 1e3 * eps_val) & (still_calibrate_stuck_2)
#stuck = (stuck_1) | (stuck_2)
stuck = ((chi_below - chi_above) < 10) & (consec) & (both)
if (stuck).any():
consec_above[stuck] = 0
consec_below[stuck] = 0
check_above_stuck = (stuck) & (model_moments > data_moments)
check_below_stuck = (stuck) & (model_moments < data_moments)
print(str(np.sum(check_above_stuck)) + ' labor moments are being checked to see if they are too high')
print(str(np.sum(check_below_stuck)) + ' labor moments are being checked to see if they are too low')
### Make sure chi_n bounds are still valid
check_chi_n = chi_n.copy()
check_chi_n[:45][check_above_stuck] = np.copy(chi_below[check_above_stuck])
check_chi_n[:45][check_below_stuck] = np.copy(chi_above[check_below_stuck])
p.chi_n = check_chi_n
check_model_moments = find_moments(p, client)
above_stuck = (check_above_stuck) & (check_model_moments > data_moments)
below_stuck = (check_below_stuck) & (check_model_moments < data_moments)
print(str(np.sum(above_stuck)) + ' labor moments are being unstuck from being too high')
print(str(np.sum(below_stuck)) + ' labor moments are being unstuck from being too low')
total_stuck = str(np.sum(above_stuck) + np.sum(below_stuck))
moments_calibrated_per_step.append(str(np.sum(stuck)) + '(checked) ' + total_stuck + '(stuck)')
print('Moments calibrated at each iteration (including this iteration):')
print(moments_calibrated_per_step)
labor_below[above_stuck] = 0
labor_above[below_stuck] = np.inf
chi_below[above_stuck] *= 2
chi_above[below_stuck] *= 0.5
still_calibrate = (abs(check_model_moments - data_moments) > eps_val) & ((check_chi_n[:45] > 0.5)\
| ((check_chi_n[:45] <= 0.5) & (labor_above > data_moments)))
if not (still_calibrate).any():
chi_n = check_chi_n
model_moments = check_model_moments
else:
print('No labor moments are stuck')
print('-------------------------------')
print('Calibration complete')
print('Final Chi_n:')
print(list(chi_n))
print('-------------------------------')
print('Final model moments:')
print(list(model_moments))
print('-------------------------------')
print('Moments calibrated at each iteration:')
print(moments_calibrated_per_step)
print('Number of iterations to solve:')
print(len(moments_calibrated_per_step))
print('-------------------------------')
with open("output.txt", "a") as text_file:
text_file.write('\nFinal model moments: ' + str(model_moments) + '\n')
text_file.write('\nFinal chi_n: ' + str(chi_n) + '\n')
pickle.dump(chi_n, open("chi_n.p", "wb"))
stop
ss_output = SS.run_SS(p)
return ss_output
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=True,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True,
data=None,
client=None,
num_workers=1):
tick = time.time()
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError:
pass
print('In runner, baseline is ', baseline)
# Get parameter class
# Note - set run_micro false when initially load class
# Update later with call to spec.get_tax_function_parameters()
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
test=test,
time_path=time_path,
baseline=baseline,
reform=reform,
guid=guid,
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
spec.update_specifications(user_params)
print('path for tax functions: ', spec.output_base)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print("Time path iteration complete.")
print("It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() -
tick))
def runner_SS(output_base,
baseline_dir,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=True,
age_specific=False,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline,
analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs,
age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'],
reform=reform,
guid=guid)
print("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(
float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
'''
****
CALL CALIBRATION here if boolean flagged
****
'''
calibrate_model = False
# if calibrate_model:
# chi_b, chi_n = calibrate.(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline,
# calibrate_model, output_dir=output_base, baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E', 'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter',
'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI', 'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse',
'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess', 'etr_params',
'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq', 'retire',
'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'e', 'rho'
]
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
def runner(output_base, baseline_dir, test=False, time_path=True,
baseline=True, reform={}, user_params={}, guid='',
run_micro=True, data=None, client=None, num_workers=1):
tick = time.time()
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError:
pass
print('In runner, baseline is ', baseline)
# Get parameter class
# Note - set run_micro false when initially load class
# Update later with call to spec.get_tax_function_parameters()
spec = Specifications(run_micro=False, output_base=output_base,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir, test=test,
time_path=time_path, baseline=baseline,
reform=reform, guid=guid, data=data,
client=client, num_workers=num_workers)
spec.update_specifications(user_params)
print('path for tax functions: ', spec.output_base)
spec.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(spec, open(param_dir, "wb"))
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(spec, client=client)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print("Time path iteration complete.")
print("It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(
time.time() - tick))
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=True,
age_specific=False,
reform=0,
fix_transfers=False,
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True,
calibrate_model=False):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
print("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline,
reform=reform,
guid=guid,
user_modifiable=True)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'sigma' in user_params:
print "updating sigma"
run_params['sigma'] = user_params['sigma']
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E', 'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter',
'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI', 'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse',
'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess', 'etr_params',
'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq', 'retire',
'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates', 'e', 'rho',
'omega_S_preTP'
]
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
If using income tax reform, need to determine parameters that yield
same SS revenue as the wealth tax reform.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if reform == 1:
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
# find SS revenue from wealth tax reform
reform3_ss_dir = os.path.join(
"./OUTPUT_WEALTH_REFORM" + '/sigma' + str(run_params['sigma']),
"SS/SS_vars.pkl")
reform3_ss_solutions = pickle.load(open(reform3_ss_dir, "rb"))
receipts_to_match = reform3_ss_solutions['net_tax_receipts']
# create function to match SS revenue
# def matcher(d_guess, params):
# income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,\
# chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir = params
# analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
# etr_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtrx_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtry_params[:,3] = d_guess
# income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
# ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline ,baseline_dir=baseline_dir, output_base=output_base)
#
# receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
# error = abs(receipts_to_match - receipts_new)
# if d_guess <= 0:
# error = 1e14
# print 'Error in taxes:', error
# return error
# print 'Computing new income tax to match wealth tax'
d_guess = 0.413 # initial guess
# import scipy.optimize as opt
# params = [income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir]
# new_d_inc = opt.fsolve(matcher, d_guess, args=params, xtol=1e-6)
new_d_inc = 0.413 # this value comes out given default parameter values (if fix_transfers=True this is 0.503 if False then 0.453)
print '\tOld income tax:', d_guess
print '\tNew income tax:', new_d_inc
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
etr_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
mtrx_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
mtry_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
run_params['etr_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(etr_params, (run_params['S'], 1, etr_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
run_params['mtrx_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(mtrx_params,
(run_params['S'], 1, mtrx_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
run_params['mtry_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(mtry_params,
(run_params['S'], 1, mtry_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
print('ETR param shape = ', etr_params.shape)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_parameters,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results and parameters of run
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "run_parameters.pkl")
pickle.dump(sim_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "run_parameters.pkl")
pickle.dump(sim_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['baseline'] = baseline
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, initial_values, SS_values = TPI.create_tpi_params(
**sim_params)
tpi_output, macro_output = TPI.run_TPI(income_tax_params,
tpi_params,
iterative_params,
initial_values,
SS_values,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
output_dir=output_base)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_macro_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(macro_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print "Time path iteration complete. It"
print "took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() - tick)
def test_run_SS(input_path, expected_path):
# Test SS.run_SS function. Provide inputs to function and
# ensure that output returned matches what it has been before.
input_tuple = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', input_path))
(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params,
small_open_params, baseline, baseline_spending, baseline_dir) =\
input_tuple
p = Specifications()
(p.J, p.S, p.T, p.BW, p.beta, p.sigma, p.alpha, p.gamma, p.epsilon,
Z, p.delta, p.ltilde, p.nu, p.g_y, p.g_n_ss, tau_payroll,
tau_bq, p.rho, p.omega_SS, p.budget_balance, alpha_T,
p.debt_ratio_ss, tau_b, delta_tau, lambdas, imm_rates, p.e,
retire, p.mean_income_data, h_wealth, p_wealth, m_wealth,
p.b_ellipse, p.upsilon) = ss_params
p.Z = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * Z
p.tau_bq = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * 0.0
p.tau_payroll = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_payroll
p.alpha_T = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * alpha_T
p.tau_b = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * tau_b
p.delta_tau = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * delta_tau
p.h_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * h_wealth
p.p_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * p_wealth
p.m_wealth = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * m_wealth
p.retire = (np.ones(p.T + p.S) * retire).astype(int)
p.lambdas = lambdas.reshape(p.J, 1)
p.imm_rates = imm_rates.reshape(1, p.S)
p.tax_func_type = 'DEP'
p.baseline = baseline
p.baseline_spending = baseline_spending
p.baseline_dir = baseline_dir
p.analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params =\
income_tax_params
p.etr_params = np.transpose(etr_params.reshape(
p.S, 1, etr_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.mtrx_params = np.transpose(mtrx_params.reshape(
p.S, 1, mtrx_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.mtry_params = np.transpose(mtry_params.reshape(
p.S, 1, mtry_params.shape[-1]), (1, 0, 2))
p.maxiter, p.mindist_SS = iterative_params
p.chi_b, p.chi_n = chi_params
p.small_open, firm_r, hh_r = small_open_params
p.firm_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * firm_r
p.hh_r = np.ones(p.T + p.S) * hh_r
p.num_workers = 1
test_dict = SS.run_SS(p, None)
expected_dict = utils.safe_read_pickle(
os.path.join(CUR_PATH, 'test_io_data', expected_path))
# delete values key-value pairs that are not in both dicts
del expected_dict['bssmat'], expected_dict['chi_n'], expected_dict['chi_b']
del test_dict['etr_ss'], test_dict['mtrx_ss'], test_dict['mtry_ss']
test_dict['IITpayroll_revenue'] = (test_dict['total_revenue_ss'] -
test_dict['business_revenue'])
del test_dict['T_Pss'], test_dict['T_BQss'], test_dict['T_Wss']
del test_dict['resource_constraint_error'], test_dict['T_Css']
del test_dict['r_gov_ss'], test_dict['r_hh_ss']
test_dict['revenue_ss'] = test_dict.pop('total_revenue_ss')
for k, v in expected_dict.items():
assert(np.allclose(test_dict[k], v))
def run_model(meta_param_dict, adjustment):
'''
Initializes classes from OG-USA that compute the model under
different policies. Then calls function get output objects.
'''
meta_params = MetaParams()
meta_params.adjust(meta_param_dict)
if meta_params.data_source == "PUF":
data = retrieve_puf(AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID, AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY)
else:
data = "cps"
# Create output directory structure
base_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, BASELINE_DIR)
reform_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, REFORM_DIR)
dirs = [base_dir, reform_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
utils.mkdirs(_dir)
# Dask parmeters
client = None
num_workers = 1
# whether to estimate tax functions from microdata
run_micro = True
# Solve baseline model
base_spec = {
'start_year': meta_param_dict['year'],
'debt_ratio_ss': 2.0,
'r_gov_scale': 1.0,
'r_gov_shift': 0.02,
'zeta_D': [0.4],
'zeta_K': [0.1],
'initial_debt_ratio': 0.78,
'initial_foreign_debt_ratio': 0.4,
'tax_func_type': 'linear',
'age_specific': False
}
base_params = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=base_dir,
baseline_dir=base_dir,
test=False,
time_path=False,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
guid='',
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
base_params.update_specifications(base_spec)
base_params.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
base_ss = SS.run_SS(base_params, client=client)
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(base_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(base_dir, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(base_ss, f)
# Solve reform model
reform_spec = base_spec
reform_spec.update(adjustment['ogusa'])
reform_params = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=reform_dir,
baseline_dir=base_dir,
test=False,
time_path=False,
baseline=False,
iit_reform={},
guid='',
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
reform_params.update_specifications(reform_spec)
reform_params.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
reform_ss = SS.run_SS(reform_params, client=client)
comp_dict = comp_output(base_ss, base_params, reform_ss, reform_params)
return comp_dict
guid='_example',
data='cps',
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
def chi_n_func(s, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4):
chi_n = a0 + a1 * s + a2 * s**2 + a3 * s**3 + a4 * s**4
return chi_n
a0 = 1
a1 = 0
a2 = 0
a3 = 0
a4 = 0
params_init = np.array([a0, a1, a2, a3, a4])
labor_data = np.array([167, 165, 165, 165, 165, 166, 165, 165, 164, 166, 164])
labor_moments = labor_data * 12 / (365 * 17.5)
data_moments = np.array(list(labor_moments.flatten()))
ages = np.linspace(20, 100, p.S)
p.chi_n = chi_n_func(ages, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4)
### had to add this to make it work:
ss_output = SS.run_SS(p, client)
model_moments = calc_moments(ss_output, p.omega_SS, p.lambdas, p.S, p.J)
print(labor_moments)
print(model_moments)
def runner_SS(output_base, baseline_dir, baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=False, age_specific=False, reform={}, user_params={},
guid='', run_micro=True):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline, analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs, age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'], reform=reform, guid=guid)
print ("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(user_params['frisch'],
run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
ending_age = run_params['ending_age']
starting_age = run_params['starting_age']
S = run_params['S']
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = ['S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age',
'beta', 'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E',
'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter', 'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI',
'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse', 'k_ellipse', 'upsilon',
'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess','etr_params','mtrx_params',
'mtry_params','tau_payroll', 'tau_bq',
'retire', 'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector',
'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates', 'e', 'rho', 'omega_S_preTP']
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params= SS.create_steady_state_parameters(**sim_params)
'''
****
CALL CALIBRATION here if boolean flagged
****
'''
calibrate_model = False
if calibrate_model:
chi_params = calibrate.chi_estimate(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
def runner_SS(output_base,
baseline_dir,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=True,
age_specific=False,
reform=0,
fix_transfers=False,
user_params={},
guid='',
calibrate_model=False,
run_micro=True):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
print("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline,
reform=reform,
guid=guid,
user_modifiable=True)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'sigma' in user_params:
print "updating sigma"
run_params['sigma'] = user_params['sigma']
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI, SS_alt
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E', 'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter',
'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI', 'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse',
'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess', 'etr_params',
'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq', 'retire',
'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates', 'e', 'rho',
'omega_S_preTP'
]
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
If using income tax reform, need to determine parameters that yield
same SS revenue as the wealth tax reform.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if reform == 1:
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
# find SS revenue from wealth tax reform
reform3_ss_dir = os.path.join(
"./OUTPUT_WEALTH_REFORM" + '/sigma' + str(run_params['sigma']),
"SS/SS_vars.pkl")
reform3_ss_solutions = pickle.load(open(reform3_ss_dir, "rb"))
receipts_to_match = reform3_ss_solutions[
'T_Hss'] + reform3_ss_solutions['Gss']
# create function to match SS revenue
def matcher(d_guess, params):
income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,\
chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir = params
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
etr_params[:, 3] = d_guess
mtrx_params[:, 3] = d_guess
mtry_params[:, 3] = d_guess
income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
error = abs(receipts_to_match - receipts_new)
if d_guess <= 0:
error = 1e14
print 'Error in taxes:', error
return error
print 'Computing new income tax to match wealth tax'
# d_guess= .452 # initial guess 0.452 works for sigma = 2, frisch 1.5
# new_d_inc = d_guess
# import scipy.optimize as opt
# params = [income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir]
# new_d_inc = opt.fsolve(matcher, d_guess, args=params, xtol=1e-8)
# print '\tOld income tax:', d_guess
# print '\tNew income tax:', new_d_inc
def samesign(a, b):
return a * b > 0
def bisect_method(func, params, low, high):
'Find root of continuous function where f(low) and f(high) have opposite signs'
#assert not samesign(func(params,low), func(params,high))
for i in range(54):
midpoint = (low + high) / 2.0
if samesign(func(params, low), func(params, midpoint)):
low = midpoint
else:
high = midpoint
return midpoint
def solve_model(params, d):
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,\
chi_params, baseline ,baseline_dir = params
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
etr_params[:, 3] = d
mtrx_params[:, 3] = d
mtry_params[:, 3] = d
income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
ss_dir = os.path.join("./OUTPUT_INCOME_REFORM/sigma2.0",
"SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
new_error = receipts_to_match - receipts_new
print 'Error in taxes:', error
print 'New income tax:', d
return new_error
# print 'Computing new income tax to match wealth tax'
# d_guess= 0.5025 # initial guess
# # income_tax_params, receipts_to_match, ss_params, iterative_params,\
# # chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir = params
# analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
# etr_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtrx_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtry_params[:,3] = d_guess
# income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
# ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline, fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
# baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
# ss_dir = os.path.join("./OUTPUT_INCOME_REFORM/sigma2.0", "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
# pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
# error = receipts_to_match - receipts_new
# new_error = error
# print "ERROR: ", error
# max_loop_iter = 1
# output_list = np.zeros((max_loop_iter,3))
# loop_iter = 0
# bisect = 0
# d_guess_old = d_guess
# # while np.abs(new_error) > 1e-8 and loop_iter < max_loop_iter:
# while loop_iter < max_loop_iter:
# # if new_error > 0 and new_error > 0 and bisect == 0:
# # d_guess_old = d_guess
# # d_guess+=0.001
# # elif new_error < 0 and new_error < 0 and bisect == 0:
# # d_guess_old = d_guess
# # d_guess-=0.001
# # d_guess = max(0.0,d_guess) # constrain so not negative
# # else:
# # bisect = 1
# # print 'Entering bisection method'
# # params = income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,\
# # chi_params, baseline ,baseline_dir
# # high = max(d_guess,d_guess_old)
# # low = min(d_guess,d_guess_old)
# # d_guess = bisect_method(solve_model, params, low, high)
# # loop_iter = max_loop_iter
# d_guess_old = d_guess
# d_guess+=0.0005
#
# error = new_error
# etr_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtrx_params[:,3] = d_guess
# mtry_params[:,3] = d_guess
# income_tax_params = analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params
# print 'now here$$$'
# ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline, fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
# baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
# ss_dir = os.path.join("./OUTPUT_INCOME_REFORM/sigma2.0", "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
# pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# receipts_new = ss_outputs['T_Hss'] + ss_outputs['Gss']
# new_error = (receipts_to_match - receipts_new)
# print "ERROR: ", new_error
# output_list[loop_iter,0]=new_error
# output_list[loop_iter,1]=d_guess
# output_list[loop_iter,2]=ss_outputs['Yss']-ss_outputs['Iss']-ss_outputs['Css']-ss_outputs['Gss']
# np.savetxt('inc_tax_out.csv',output_list, delimiter=",")
# pickle.dump(output_list, open("output_list.pkl", "wb"))
# print 'Error in taxes:', error
# print 'Old income tax:', d_guess_old
# print 'New income tax:', d_guess
# print 'iteration: ', loop_iter
# loop_iter += 1
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
new_d_inc = 0.5025 # this is 0.453 if fix_transfers=False, 0.503 if True
etr_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
mtrx_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
mtry_params[:, 3] = new_d_inc
sim_params['etr_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(etr_params, (run_params['S'], 1, etr_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
sim_params['mtrx_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(mtrx_params,
(run_params['S'], 1, mtrx_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
sim_params['mtry_params'] = np.tile(
np.reshape(mtry_params,
(run_params['S'], 1, mtry_params.shape[1])),
(1, run_params['BW'], 1))
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
analytical_mtrs, etr_params, mtrx_params, mtry_params = income_tax_params
'''
****
CALL CALIBRATION here if boolean flagged
****
'''
if calibrate_model:
chi_params = calibrate.chi_estimate(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
# ss_outputs = SS_alt.run_SS(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params,
# chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
print 'Fix transfers = ', fix_transfers
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_params,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
fix_transfers=fix_transfers,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
model_moments = ogusa.calibrate.calc_moments(ss_outputs,
sim_params['omega_SS'],
sim_params['lambdas'],
sim_params['S'],
sim_params['J'])
scf, data = ogusa.wealth.get_wealth_data()
wealth_moments = ogusa.wealth.compute_wealth_moments(
scf, sim_params['lambdas'], sim_params['J'])
print 'model moments: ', model_moments[:sim_params['J'] + 2]
print 'data moments: ', wealth_moments
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results and parameters
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "run_parameters.pkl")
pickle.dump(sim_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "run_parameters.pkl")
pickle.dump(sim_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
def runner_SS(
output_base,
baseline_dir,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=False,
age_specific=False,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid="",
run_micro=True,
):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
# Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(
baseline=baseline,
analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs,
age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params["start_year"],
reform=reform,
guid=guid,
)
print ("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params["analytical_mtrs"] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if "frisch" in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(user_params["frisch"], run_params["ltilde"])
run_params["b_ellipse"] = b_ellipse
run_params["upsilon"] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if "g_y_annual" in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
ending_age = run_params["ending_age"]
starting_age = run_params["starting_age"]
S = run_params["S"]
g_y = (1 + user_params["g_y_annual"]) ** (float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params["g_y"] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
"""
****
CALL CALIBRATION here if boolean flagged
****
"""
calibrate_model = False
# if calibrate_model:
# chi_b, chi_n = calibrate.(income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline,
# calibrate_model, output_dir=output_base, baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
"S",
"J",
"T",
"BW",
"lambdas",
"starting_age",
"ending_age",
"beta",
"sigma",
"alpha",
"nu",
"Z",
"delta",
"E",
"ltilde",
"g_y",
"maxiter",
"mindist_SS",
"mindist_TPI",
"analytical_mtrs",
"b_ellipse",
"k_ellipse",
"upsilon",
"chi_b_guess",
"chi_n_guess",
"etr_params",
"mtrx_params",
"mtry_params",
"tau_payroll",
"tau_bq",
"retire",
"mean_income_data",
"g_n_vector",
"h_wealth",
"p_wealth",
"m_wealth",
"omega",
"g_n_ss",
"omega_SS",
"surv_rate",
"imm_rates",
"e",
"rho",
"omega_S_preTP",
]
"""
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"""
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params["output_dir"] = output_base
sim_params["run_params"] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(
income_tax_params, ss_params, iterative_params, chi_params, baseline, baseline_dir=baseline_dir
)
"""
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"""
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=False,
age_specific=False,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True,
small_open=False,
budget_balance=False,
baseline_spending=False):
#from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demographics, income
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
# Make sure options are internally consistent
if baseline == True and baseline_spending == True:
print(
'Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, leaving <baseline> True.'
)
baseline_spending = False
if budget_balance == True and baseline_spending == True:
print(
'Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, leaving <budget_balance> True.'
)
baseline_spending = False
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline,
analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs,
age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'],
reform=reform,
guid=guid)
print('In runner, baseline is ', baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(test=test,
baseline=baseline,
guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
run_params['small_open'] = small_open
run_params['budget_balance'] = budget_balance
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print("updating frisch and associated")
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
if 'debt_ratio_ss' in user_params:
run_params['debt_ratio_ss'] = user_params['debt_ratio_ss']
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print("updating g_y_annual and associated")
ending_age = run_params['ending_age']
starting_age = run_params['starting_age']
S = run_params['S']
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(
float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify transfer & spending ratios based on user input.
if 'T_shifts' in user_params:
if baseline_spending == False:
print('updating ALPHA_T with T_shifts in first',
user_params['T_shifts'].size, 'periods.')
T_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['T_shifts'],
np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_T'].size -
user_params['T_shifts'].size)),
axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_T'] = run_params['ALPHA_T'] + T_shifts
if 'G_shifts' in user_params:
if baseline_spending == False:
print('updating ALPHA_G with G_shifts in first',
user_params['G_shifts'].size, 'periods.')
G_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['G_shifts'],
np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_G'].size -
user_params['G_shifts'].size)),
axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_G'] = run_params['ALPHA_G'] + G_shifts
from ogusa import SS, TPI
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'gamma', 'epsilon', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E',
'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter', 'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI',
'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse', 'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'small_open',
'budget_balance', 'ss_firm_r', 'ss_hh_r', 'tpi_firm_r', 'tpi_hh_r',
'tG1', 'tG2', 'alpha_T', 'alpha_G', 'ALPHA_T', 'ALPHA_G', 'rho_G',
'debt_ratio_ss', 'tau_b', 'delta_tau', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess',
'etr_params', 'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq',
'retire', 'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth',
'm_wealth', 'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates',
'e', 'rho', 'initial_debt', 'omega_S_preTP'
]
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params, small_open_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_parameters,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
small_open_params,
baseline,
baseline_spending,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['baseline'] = baseline
sim_params['baseline_spending'] = baseline_spending
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, small_open_params, initial_values, SS_values, fiscal_params, biz_tax_params = TPI.create_tpi_params(
**sim_params)
tpi_output, macro_output = TPI.run_TPI(
income_tax_params,
tpi_params,
iterative_params,
small_open_params,
initial_values,
SS_values,
fiscal_params,
biz_tax_params,
output_dir=output_base,
baseline_spending=baseline_spending)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_macro_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(macro_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print("Time path iteration complete.")
print("It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() -
tick))
def run_model(meta_param_dict, adjustment):
'''
Initializes classes from OG-USA that compute the model under
different policies. Then calls function get output objects.
'''
print('Meta_param_dict = ', meta_param_dict)
print('adjustment dict = ', adjustment)
meta_params = MetaParams()
meta_params.adjust(meta_param_dict)
if meta_params.data_source == "PUF":
data = retrieve_puf(AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID, AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY)
# set name of cached baseline file in case use below
cached_pickle = 'TxFuncEst_baseline_PUF.pkl'
else:
data = "cps"
# set name of cached baseline file in case use below
cached_pickle = 'TxFuncEst_baseline_CPS.pkl'
# Get TC params adjustments
iit_mods = convert_policy_adjustment(
adjustment["Tax-Calculator Parameters"])
# Create output directory structure
base_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, BASELINE_DIR)
reform_dir = os.path.join(CUR_DIR, REFORM_DIR)
dirs = [base_dir, reform_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
utils.mkdirs(_dir)
# Dask parmeters
client = Client()
num_workers = 5
# TODO: Swap to these parameters when able to specify tax function
# and model workers separately
# num_workers_txf = 5
# num_workers_mod = 6
# whether to estimate tax functions from microdata
run_micro = True
time_path = meta_param_dict['time_path'][0]['value']
# filter out OG-USA params that will not change between baseline and
# reform runs (these are the non-policy parameters)
filtered_ogusa_params = {}
constant_param_set = {
'frisch', 'beta_annual', 'sigma', 'g_y_annual', 'gamma', 'epsilon',
'Z', 'delta_annual', 'small_open', 'world_int_rate',
'initial_foreign_debt_ratio', 'zeta_D', 'zeta_K', 'tG1', 'tG2',
'rho_G', 'debt_ratio_ss', 'budget_balance'
}
filtered_ogusa_params = OrderedDict()
for k, v in adjustment['OG-USA Parameters'].items():
if k in constant_param_set:
filtered_ogusa_params[k] = v
# Solve baseline model
start_year = meta_param_dict['year'][0]['value']
if start_year == 2020:
OGPATH = inspect.getfile(SS)
OGDIR = os.path.dirname(OGPATH)
tax_func_path = None #os.path.join(OGDIR, 'data', 'tax_functions',
# cached_pickle)
run_micro_baseline = False
else:
tax_func_path = None
run_micro_baseline = True
base_spec = {
**{
'start_year': start_year,
'tax_func_type': 'DEP',
'age_specific': False
},
**filtered_ogusa_params
}
base_params = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=base_dir,
baseline_dir=base_dir,
test=False,
time_path=False,
baseline=True,
iit_reform={},
guid='',
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
base_params.update_specifications(base_spec)
base_params.get_tax_function_parameters(client,
run_micro_baseline,
tax_func_path=tax_func_path)
base_ss = SS.run_SS(base_params, client=client)
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(base_dir, "SS"))
base_ss_dir = os.path.join(base_dir, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(base_ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(base_ss, f)
if time_path:
base_tpi = TPI.run_TPI(base_params, client=client)
tpi_dir = os.path.join(base_dir, "TPI", "TPI_vars.pkl")
with open(tpi_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(base_tpi, f)
else:
base_tpi = None
# Solve reform model
reform_spec = base_spec
reform_spec.update(adjustment["OG-USA Parameters"])
reform_params = Specifications(run_micro=False,
output_base=reform_dir,
baseline_dir=base_dir,
test=False,
time_path=time_path,
baseline=False,
iit_reform=iit_mods,
guid='',
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
reform_params.update_specifications(reform_spec)
reform_params.get_tax_function_parameters(client, run_micro)
reform_ss = SS.run_SS(reform_params, client=client)
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(reform_dir, "SS"))
reform_ss_dir = os.path.join(reform_dir, "SS", "SS_vars.pkl")
with open(reform_ss_dir, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(reform_ss, f)
if time_path:
reform_tpi = TPI.run_TPI(reform_params, client=client)
else:
reform_tpi = None
comp_dict = comp_output(base_params, base_ss, reform_params, reform_ss,
time_path, base_tpi, reform_tpi)
# Shut down client and make sure all of its references are
# cleaned up.
client.close()
del client
return comp_dict
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
test=False,
time_path=True,
baseline=False,
constant_rates=True,
tax_func_type='DEP',
analytical_mtrs=False,
age_specific=False,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True,
small_open=False,
budget_balance=False,
baseline_spending=False,
data=None,
client=None,
num_workers=1):
from ogusa import parameters, demographics, income, utils
tick = time.time()
start_year = user_params.get('start_year', DEFAULT_START_YEAR)
if start_year > TC_LAST_YEAR:
raise RuntimeError("Start year is beyond data extrapolation.")
# Make sure options are internally consistent
if baseline and baseline_spending:
print("Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, "
"leaving <baseline> True.'")
baseline_spending = False
if budget_balance and baseline_spending:
print("Inconsistent options. Setting <baseline_spending> to False, "
"leaving <budget_balance> True.")
baseline_spending = False
# Create output directory structure
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS")
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
dirs = [ss_dir, tpi_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print("making dir: ", _dir)
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
print('In runner, baseline is ', baseline)
if small_open and (not isinstance(small_open, dict)):
raise ValueError(
'small_open must be False/None or a dict with keys: {}'.format(
SMALL_OPEN_KEYS))
small_open = small_open or {}
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(
output_base,
reform=reform,
test=test,
baseline=baseline,
guid=guid,
run_micro=run_micro,
constant_rates=constant_rates,
analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs,
tax_func_type=tax_func_type,
age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=start_year,
data=data,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers,
**small_open)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
run_params['small_open'] = bool(small_open)
run_params['budget_balance'] = budget_balance
run_params['world_int_rate'] = small_open.get('world_int_rate',
DEFAULT_WORLD_INT_RATE)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print("updating frisch and associated")
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
if 'debt_ratio_ss' in user_params:
run_params['debt_ratio_ss'] = user_params['debt_ratio_ss']
if 'tau_b' in user_params:
run_params['tau_b'] = user_params['tau_b']
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print("updating g_y_annual and associated")
ending_age = run_params['ending_age']
starting_age = run_params['starting_age']
S = run_params['S']
g_y = ((1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])
**(float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1)
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify transfer & spending ratios based on user input.
if 'T_shifts' in user_params:
if not baseline_spending:
print('updating ALPHA_T with T_shifts in first',
user_params['T_shifts'].size, 'periods.')
T_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['T_shifts'],
np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_T'].size -
user_params['T_shifts'].size)),
axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_T'] = run_params['ALPHA_T'] + T_shifts
if 'G_shifts' in user_params:
if not baseline_spending:
print('updating ALPHA_G with G_shifts in first',
user_params['G_shifts'].size, 'periods.')
G_shifts = np.concatenate((user_params['G_shifts'],
np.zeros(run_params['ALPHA_G'].size -
user_params['G_shifts'].size)),
axis=0)
run_params['ALPHA_G'] = run_params['ALPHA_G'] + G_shifts
from ogusa import SS, TPI
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'gamma', 'epsilon', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E',
'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter', 'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI',
'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse', 'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'small_open',
'budget_balance', 'ss_firm_r', 'ss_hh_r', 'tpi_firm_r', 'tpi_hh_r',
'tG1', 'tG2', 'alpha_T', 'alpha_G', 'ALPHA_T', 'ALPHA_G', 'rho_G',
'debt_ratio_ss', 'tau_b', 'delta_tau', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess',
'etr_params', 'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq',
'retire', 'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth',
'm_wealth', 'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'imm_rates',
'e', 'rho', 'initial_debt', 'omega_S_preTP'
]
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
sim_params['tax_func_type'] = tax_func_type
(income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params,
small_open_params) = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_parameters,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
small_open_params,
baseline,
baseline_spending,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
model_params = {}
for key in param_names:
model_params[key] = sim_params[key]
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(model_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_base, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SS/SS_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
# Save pickle with parameter values for the run
param_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "model_params.pkl")
pickle.dump(model_params, open(param_dir, "wb"))
if time_path:
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['baseline'] = baseline
sim_params['baseline_spending'] = baseline_spending
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
(income_tax_params, tpi_params,
iterative_params, small_open_params, initial_values, SS_values,
fiscal_params, biz_tax_params) =\
TPI.create_tpi_params(**sim_params)
tpi_output = TPI.run_TPI(income_tax_params,
tpi_params,
iterative_params,
small_open_params,
initial_values,
SS_values,
fiscal_params,
biz_tax_params,
output_dir=output_base,
baseline_spending=baseline_spending,
client=client,
num_workers=num_workers)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle TPI results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
tpi_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPI")
utils.mkdirs(tpi_dir)
tpi_vars = os.path.join(tpi_dir, "TPI_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(tpi_output, open(tpi_vars, "wb"))
print("Time path iteration complete.")
print("It took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() -
tick))
def runner(output_base,
baseline_dir,
baseline=False,
analytical_mtrs=True,
age_specific=False,
reform={},
user_params={},
guid='',
run_micro=True):
#from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demographics, income
from ogusa import parameters, wealth, labor, demog, income, utils
from ogusa import txfunc
tick = time.time()
#Create output directory structure
saved_moments_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "Saved_moments")
ssinit_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "SSinit")
tpiinit_dir = os.path.join(output_base, "TPIinit")
dirs = [saved_moments_dir, ssinit_dir, tpiinit_dir]
for _dir in dirs:
try:
print "making dir: ", _dir
os.makedirs(_dir)
except OSError as oe:
pass
if run_micro:
txfunc.get_tax_func_estimate(baseline=baseline,
analytical_mtrs=analytical_mtrs,
age_specific=age_specific,
start_year=user_params['start_year'],
reform=reform,
guid=guid)
print("in runner, baseline is ", baseline)
run_params = ogusa.parameters.get_parameters(baseline=baseline, guid=guid)
run_params['analytical_mtrs'] = analytical_mtrs
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'frisch' in user_params:
print "updating fricsh and associated"
b_ellipse, upsilon = ogusa.elliptical_u_est.estimation(
user_params['frisch'], run_params['ltilde'])
run_params['b_ellipse'] = b_ellipse
run_params['upsilon'] = upsilon
run_params.update(user_params)
# Modify ogusa parameters based on user input
if 'g_y_annual' in user_params:
print "updating g_y_annual and associated"
g_y = (1 + user_params['g_y_annual'])**(
float(ending_age - starting_age) / S) - 1
run_params['g_y'] = g_y
run_params.update(user_params)
from ogusa import SS, TPI
# Generate Wealth data moments
wealth.get_wealth_data(run_params['lambdas'],
run_params['J'],
run_params['flag_graphs'],
output_dir=output_base)
# Generate labor data moments
labor.labor_data_moments(run_params['flag_graphs'], output_dir=output_base)
calibrate_model = False
# List of parameter names that will not be changing (unless we decide to
# change them for a tax experiment)
param_names = [
'S', 'J', 'T', 'BW', 'lambdas', 'starting_age', 'ending_age', 'beta',
'sigma', 'alpha', 'nu', 'Z', 'delta', 'E', 'ltilde', 'g_y', 'maxiter',
'mindist_SS', 'mindist_TPI', 'analytical_mtrs', 'b_ellipse',
'k_ellipse', 'upsilon', 'chi_b_guess', 'chi_n_guess', 'etr_params',
'mtrx_params', 'mtry_params', 'tau_payroll', 'tau_bq', 'retire',
'mean_income_data', 'g_n_vector', 'h_wealth', 'p_wealth', 'm_wealth',
'omega', 'g_n_ss', 'omega_SS', 'surv_rate', 'e', 'rho'
]
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run SS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params = {}
for key in param_names:
sim_params[key] = run_params[key]
sim_params['output_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['run_params'] = run_params
income_tax_params, ss_parameters, iterative_params, chi_params = SS.create_steady_state_parameters(
**sim_params)
ss_outputs = SS.run_SS(income_tax_params,
ss_parameters,
iterative_params,
chi_params,
baseline,
baseline_dir=baseline_dir)
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pickle SS results
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
if baseline:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(baseline_dir, "SS/ss_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
else:
utils.mkdirs(os.path.join(output_dir, "SS"))
ss_dir = os.path.join(output_dir, "SS/ss_vars.pkl")
pickle.dump(ss_outputs, open(ss_dir, "wb"))
'''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Run the baseline TPI simulation
------------------------------------------------------------------------
'''
sim_params['input_dir'] = output_base
sim_params['baseline_dir'] = baseline_dir
income_tax_params, tpi_params, iterative_params, initial_values, SS_values = TPI.create_tpi_params(
**sim_params)
# ss_outputs['income_tax_params'] = income_tax_params
# ss_outputs['wealth_tax_params'] = wealth_tax_params
# ss_outputs['ellipse_params'] = ellipse_params
# ss_outputs['parameters'] = parameters
# ss_outputs['N_tilde'] = N_tilde
# ss_outputs['omega_stationary'] = omega_stationary
# ss_outputs['K0'] = K0
# ss_outputs['b_sinit'] = b_sinit
# ss_outputs['b_splus1init'] = b_splus1init
# ss_outputs['L0'] = L0
# ss_outputs['Y0'] = Y0
# ss_outputs['r0'] = r0
# ss_outputs['BQ0'] = BQ0
# ss_outputs['T_H_0'] = T_H_0
# ss_outputs['factor_ss'] = factor
# ss_outputs['tax0'] = tax0
# ss_outputs['c0'] = c0
# ss_outputs['initial_b'] = initial_b
# ss_outputs['initial_n'] = initial_n
# ss_outputs['tau_bq'] = tau_bq
# ss_outputs['g_n_vector'] = g_n_vector
# ss_outputs['output_dir'] = output_base
# with open("ss_outputs.pkl", 'wb') as fp:
# pickle.dump(ss_outputs, fp)
w_path, r_path, T_H_path, BQ_path, Y_path = TPI.run_TPI(
income_tax_params,
tpi_params,
iterative_params,
initial_values,
SS_values,
output_dir=output_base)
print "getting to here...."
TPI.TP_solutions(w_path, r_path, T_H_path, BQ_path, **ss_outputs)
print "took {0} seconds to get that part done.".format(time.time() - tick)
