def test_double_pickle():
arima = ARIMA(order=(0, 0, 0), trend='c', suppress_warnings=True)
arima.fit(y)
# Now save it twice
file_a = 'first.pkl'
file_b = 'second.pkl'
try:
# No compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_a)
# Sleep between pickling so that the "pickle hash" for the ARIMA is
# different by enough. We could theoretically also just use a UUID
# for part of the hash to make sure it's unique?
time.sleep(0.5)
# Some compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_b, compress=2)
# Load both and prove they can both predict
loaded_a = joblib.load(file_a) # type: ARIMA
loaded_b = joblib.load(file_b) # type: ARIMA
pred_a = loaded_a.predict(n_periods=5)
pred_b = loaded_b.predict(n_periods=5)
assert np.allclose(pred_a, pred_b)
# Always remove in case we fail in try, leaving residual files
finally:
os.unlink(file_a)
os.unlink(file_b)
def test_issue_286():
mod = ARIMA(order=(1, 1, 2))
mod.fit(wineind)
with pytest.raises(ValueError) as ve:
mod.predict_in_sample(start=0)
assert "In-sample predictions undefined for" in pytest_error_str(ve)
def test_double_pickle():
arima = ARIMA(order=(0, 0, 0), trend='c', suppress_warnings=True)
arima.fit(y)
with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tdir:
# Now save it twice
file_a = os.path.join(tdir, 'first.pkl')
file_b = os.path.join(tdir, 'second.pkl')
# No compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_a)
# Sleep between pickling so that the "pickle hash" for the ARIMA is
# different by enough. We could theoretically also just use a UUID
# for part of the hash to make sure it's unique?
time.sleep(0.5)
# Some compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_b, compress=2)
# Load both and prove they can both predict
loaded_a = joblib.load(file_a) # type: ARIMA
loaded_b = joblib.load(file_b) # type: ARIMA
pred_a = loaded_a.predict(n_periods=5)
pred_b = loaded_b.predict(n_periods=5)
assert np.allclose(pred_a, pred_b)
def test_add_new_obs_deprecated():
endog = wineind
train, test = endog[:125], endog[125:]
model = ARIMA(order=(1, 0, 0))
model.fit(train)
with pytest.warns(DeprecationWarning):
model.add_new_observations(test)
def test_add_new_obs_deprecated():
endog = wineind
train, test = endog[:125], endog[125:]
model = ARIMA(order=(1, 0, 0))
model.fit(train)
with warnings.catch_warnings(record=True) as w:
warnings.simplefilter("always")
model.add_new_observations(test)
assert len(w)
# Might be more than one warning, so quick pass
assert any(issubclass(wrn.category, DeprecationWarning) and
'pmdarima' in str(wrn.message) for wrn in w)
def test_for_older_version():
# Fit an ARIMA
arima = ARIMA(order=(0, 0, 0), trend='c', suppress_warnings=True)
# There are three possibilities here:
# 1. The model is serialized/deserialized BEFORE it has been fit.
# This means we should not get a warning.
#
# 2. The model is saved after being fit, but it does not have a
# pkg_version_ attribute due to it being an old (very old) version.
# We still warn for this
#
# 3. The model is saved after the fit, and it's version does not match.
# We warn for this.
for case, do_fit, expect_warning in [(1, False, False),
(2, True, True),
(3, True, True)]:
# Only fit it if we should
if do_fit:
arima.fit(y)
# If it's case 2, we remove the pkg_version_. If 3, we set it low
if case == 2:
delattr(arima, 'pkg_version_')
elif case == 3:
arima.pkg_version_ = '0.0.1' # will always be < than current
# Pickle it
pickle_file = 'model.pkl'
try:
joblib.dump(arima, pickle_file)
# Now unpickle it and show that we get a warning (if expected)
with warnings.catch_warnings(record=True) as w:
arm = joblib.load(pickle_file) # type: ARIMA
if expect_warning:
assert len(w) > 0
else:
assert not len(w)
# we can still produce predictions (only if we fit)
if do_fit:
arm.predict(n_periods=4)
finally:
os.unlink(pickle_file)
def test_for_older_version():
# Fit an ARIMA
arima = ARIMA(order=(0, 0, 0), trend='c', suppress_warnings=True)
# There are three possibilities here:
# 1. The model is serialized/deserialized BEFORE it has been fit.
# This means we should not get a warning.
#
# 2. The model is saved after being fit, but it does not have a
# pkg_version_ attribute due to it being an old (very old) version.
# We still warn for this
#
# 3. The model is saved after the fit, and it's version does not match.
# We warn for this.
for case, do_fit, expect_warning in [(1, False, False),
(2, True, True),
(3, True, True)]:
# Only fit it if we should
if do_fit:
arima.fit(y)
# If it's case 2, we remove the pkg_version_. If 3, we set it low
if case == 2:
delattr(arima, 'pkg_version_')
elif case == 3:
arima.pkg_version_ = '0.0.1' # will always be < than current
with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tdir:
pickle_file = os.path.join(tdir, 'model.pkl')
joblib.dump(arima, pickle_file)
# Now unpickle it and show that we get a warning (if expected)
if expect_warning:
with pytest.warns(UserWarning):
arm = joblib.load(pickle_file) # type: ARIMA
else:
arm = joblib.load(pickle_file) # type: ARIMA
# we can still produce predictions (only if we fit)
if do_fit:
arm.predict(n_periods=4)
def test_double_pickle():
arima = ARIMA(order=(0, 0, 0), trend='c', suppress_warnings=True)
arima.fit(y)
# Now save it twice
file_a = 'first.pkl'
file_b = 'second.pkl'
try:
# No compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_a)
# Sleep between pickling so that the "pickle hash" for the ARIMA is
# different by enough. We could theoretically also just use a UUID
# for part of the hash to make sure it's unique?
time.sleep(0.5)
# Some compression
joblib.dump(arima, file_b, compress=2)
# Load both and prove they can both predict
loaded_a = joblib.load(file_a) # type: ARIMA
loaded_b = joblib.load(file_b) # type: ARIMA
pred_a = loaded_a.predict(n_periods=5)
pred_b = loaded_b.predict(n_periods=5)
assert np.allclose(pred_a, pred_b)
# Remove the caches from each
loaded_a._clear_cached_state()
loaded_b._clear_cached_state()
# Test the previous condition where we removed the saved state of an
# ARIMA from statsmodels and caused an OSError and a corrupted pickle
with pytest.raises(OSError) as o:
joblib.load(file_a) # fails since no cached state there!
msg = str(o)
assert 'Could not read saved model state' in msg, msg
# Always remove in case we fail in try, leaving residual files
finally:
os.unlink(file_a)
os.unlink(file_b)
class ARIMAModel(BaseModel):
def __init__(self):
"""
Initialize Model
"""
self.seasonal = True
self.metric = 'mse'
self.model = None
self.model_init = False
def _build(self, **config):
"""
build the models and initialize.
:param config: hyperparameters for the model
"""
p = config.get('p', 2)
d = config.get('d', 0)
q = config.get('q', 2)
self.seasonal = config.get('seasonality_mode', True)
P = config.get('P', 1)
D = config.get('D', 0)
Q = config.get('Q', 1)
m = config.get('m', 7)
self.metric = config.get('metric', self.metric)
order = (p, d, q)
if not self.seasonal:
seasonal_order = (0, 0, 0, 0)
else:
seasonal_order = (P, D, Q, m)
self.model = ARIMA(order=order,
seasonal_order=seasonal_order,
suppress_warnings=True)
def fit_eval(self, data, validation_data, **config):
"""
Fit on the training data from scratch.
:param data: A 1-D numpy array as the training data
:param validation_data: A 1-D numpy array as the evaluation data
:return: the evaluation metric value
"""
if not self.model_init:
# Estimating differencing term (d) and seasonal differencing term (D)
kpss_diffs = ndiffs(data, alpha=0.05, test='kpss', max_d=6)
adf_diffs = ndiffs(data, alpha=0.05, test='adf', max_d=6)
d = max(adf_diffs, kpss_diffs)
D = 0 if not self.seasonal else nsdiffs(data, m=7, max_D=12)
config.update(d=d, D=D)
self._build(**config)
self.model_init = True
self.model.fit(data)
val_metric = self.evaluate(x=None,
target=validation_data,
metrics=[self.metric])[0].item()
return {self.metric: val_metric}
def predict(self, x=None, horizon=24, update=False, rolling=False):
"""
Predict horizon time-points ahead the input x in fit_eval
:param x: ARIMA predicts the horizon steps foreward from the training data.
So x should be None as it is not used.
:param horizon: the number of steps forward to predict
:param update: whether to update the original model
:param rolling: whether to use rolling prediction
:return: predicted result of length horizon
"""
if x is not None:
raise ValueError("x should be None")
if update and not rolling:
raise Exception(
"We don't support updating model without rolling prediction currently"
)
if self.model is None:
raise Exception(
"Needs to call fit_eval or restore first before calling predict"
)
if not update and not rolling:
forecasts = self.model.predict(n_periods=horizon)
elif rolling:
if not update:
self.save("tmp.pkl")
forecasts = []
for step in range(horizon):
fc = self.model.predict(n_periods=1).item()
forecasts.append(fc)
# Updates the existing model with a small number of MLE steps for rolling prediction
self.model.update(fc)
if not update:
self.restore("tmp.pkl")
os.remove("tmp.pkl")
return forecasts
def evaluate(self, target, x=None, metrics=['mse'], rolling=False):
"""
Evaluate on the prediction results and y. We predict horizon time-points ahead the input x
in fit_eval before evaluation, where the horizon length equals the second dimension size of
y.
:param target: target for evaluation.
:param x: ARIMA predicts the horizon steps foreward from the training data.
So x should be None as it is not used.
:param metrics: a list of metrics in string format
:param rolling: whether to use rolling prediction
:return: a list of metric evaluation results
"""
if x is not None:
raise ValueError("We don't support input x currently")
if target is None:
raise ValueError("Input invalid target of None")
if self.model is None:
raise Exception(
"Needs to call fit_eval or restore first before calling evaluate"
)
forecasts = self.predict(horizon=len(target), rolling=rolling)
return [Evaluator.evaluate(m, target, forecasts) for m in metrics]
def save(self, checkpoint_file):
if self.model is None:
raise Exception(
"Needs to call fit_eval or restore first before calling save")
with open(checkpoint_file, 'wb') as fout:
pickle.dump(self.model, fout)
def restore(self, checkpoint_file):
with open(checkpoint_file, 'rb') as fin:
self.model = pickle.load(fin)
self.model_init = True
# KPSS test
KPSSResults = namedtuple("KPSSResults",
["kpss_stat", "p_value", "lags", "critical_values"])
kpss_results = KPSSResults(*tsa.kpss(data, nlags='auto'))
print("KPSS results:\n", kpss_results)
auto_fit = False
if auto_fit:
arima = auto_arima(train, stepwise=True, trace=1, seasonal=False)
print(arima.summary())
else:
with warnings.catch_warnings():
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
arima = ARIMA(order=(4, 1, 4), seasonal_order=None)
arima.fit(train)
# Diagnostics plot
arima.plot_diagnostics(lags=50)
plt.gcf().suptitle('Diagnostics Plot', fontsize=14)
# !! not necessary !! Everything already plotted
# Plot Residuals and fitted values
# plt.figure()
# fitted_values = arima.predict_in_sample()
# plt.plot(df.index[:train_len - 1], fitted_values,
# color='C0', label="Fitted values")
# plt.plot(pd.to_datetime(df.index), data, color='C1', label="Data")
# plt.plot(df.index[:train_len - 1], arima.resid(),
# color='C2', label="Residuals")
# plt.gca().grid(which='both', axis='x', linestyle='--')
def predict_arima(df):
time_in=current_milli_time()
try:
forecast_in = open("forecast.pickle","rb")
future_forecast = pickle.load(forecast_in)
forecast_in.append(df)
error=[]
"""
Calculate errors
"""
if len(df) < len(future_forecast):
error=df["memory_used"] - future_forecast[:len(df)]["memory_used"]
elif len(df) > len(future_forecast):
error=df[0:len(future_forecast)]["memory_used"]- future_forecast["memory_used"]
else:
error=df["memory_used"]-future_forecast["memory_used"]
overestimation=[x for x in error if x<0]
overestimation=sum(overestimation)/len(overestimation)
underestimation=[x for x in error if x>=0]
underestimation=sum(underestimation)/len(underestimation)
print("UNDERESTIMATION ERROR: "+underestimation)
print("OVERESTIMATION ERROR: "+overestimation)
print("Mean Absolute Error in Last iteration "+str(error))
"""
Overestimation & Underestimation errors
"""
except Exception as e:
print("RMSE To be computed")
# Do Nothing
try:
pm.plot_pacf(df,show=False).savefig('pacf.png')
pm.plot_acf(df,show=False).savefig('acf.png')
except:
print("Data points insufficient for ACF & PACF")
try:
pickle_in = open("arima.pickle","rb")
arima_data = pickle.load(pickle_in)
arima_data.append(df)
#df=arima_data
except Exception as e:
arima_data_out = open("arima.pickle","wb")
pickle.dump([], arima_data_out)
arima_data_out = open("arima.pickle","wb")
pickle.dump(df, arima_data_out)
arima_data_out.close()
'''
tests
'''
nd=1
nsd=1
try:
adf_test=ADFTest(alpha=0.05)
p_val, should_diff = adf_test.is_stationary(df["memory_used"])
nd = ndiffs(df, test='adf')
logging.info(nd)
nsd = nsdiffs(df,12)
logging.info(nd)
except:
nd=1
print("Exception on tests")
ch_test=CHTest(12)
try:
nsd=ch_test.estimate_seasonal_differencing_term(df)
except Exception as e:
print(e)
logging.error(e)
'''
ARIMA MODEL
'''
'''
Find p,q dynamically
'''
acf_lags=acf(df["memory_used"])
acf_lags_threshold=[x for x in acf_lags if x>=getThreshold()]
p=len(acf_lags_threshold) if len(acf_lags_threshold)<=4 else 4
pacf_lags=pacf(df["memory_used"])
pacf_lags_threshold=[x for x in pacf_lags if x>=getThreshold()]
q=len(pacf_lags_threshold) if len(pacf_lags_threshold)<=1 else 1
d=nd
train, test = train_test_split(df,shuffle=False, test_size=0.3)
# If data is seasonal set the values of P,D,Q in seasonal order
stepwise_model = ARIMA(
order=(p,d,q),
seasonal_order=(0,nsd,0,12),
suppress_warnings=True,
scoring='mse'
)
x=str(p)+" "+str(nd)+" "+str(q)
print("Model with p="+str(q)+" d="+str(d)+" q="+str(q))
try:
stepwise_model.fit(df)
"""
Vary the periods as per the forecasting window
n_periods= 30 = 5mins
n_periods= 60 = 10mins
n_periods= 90 = 15mins
"""
future_forecast = stepwise_model.predict(n_periods=len(test))
future_forecast = pd.DataFrame(future_forecast,index=test.index,columns=["prediction"])
res=pd.concat([df,future_forecast],axis=1)
'''
Save Forecast in Pickle
'''
forecast_out = open("forecast.pickle","wb")
pickle.dump(future_forecast,forecast_out)
forecast_out.close()
trace1 = go.Scatter(x=res.index, y=res["prediction"],name="Prediction", mode='lines')
trace2 = go.Scatter(x=df.index, y=df["memory_used"],name="DF data", mode='lines')
data=[trace1,trace2]
layout = go.Layout(
title=x
)
fig = go.Figure(data=data, layout=layout)
plot(fig, filename="prediction")
print("Current values")
print(df)
print("Predicted Data Points")
print(future_forecast)
time_out=current_milli_time()
print("TIME for RNN(ms):"+str(time_out-time_in))
return future_forecast
except Exception as e:
time_out=current_milli_time()
print("TIME for RNN(ms):"+str(time_out-time_in))
print(e)
return None
def run():
symbol = input("Enter ticker symbol: ")
now = dt.datetime.now()
timeFinish = now + dt.timedelta(minutes=minutes)
while (now < timeFinish):
try:
now = dt.datetime.now()
client = Client(environment=PRACTICE,
account_id="",
access_token=ACCESS_TOKEN)
json_data = []
json_data = client.get_instrument_history(instrument=symbol,
granularity=timeframe,
candle_format="midpoint",
count=1440)
json_data = json_data['candles']
df = pd.DataFrame(json_data)
data = df.copy()
data = data.set_index('time')[['closeMid']]
data = data.set_index(pd.to_datetime(data.index))
data.columns = [CLOSE]
# Rescale data
lnprice = np.log(data)
# Create and fit the model
model_temp = auto_arima(lnprice.values,
start_p=1,
start_q=1,
max_p=1,
max_q=1,
m=4,
start_P=0,
seasonal=False,
d=1,
D=1,
trace=True,
error_action='ignore',
suppress_warnings=True,
stepwise=True)
model = ARIMA(order=model_temp.order)
fit = model.fit(lnprice.values)
# Predict
future_forecast = fit.predict(n_periods=n_periods_ahead)
future_forecast = np.exp(future_forecast)
# Calculations
lowest = min(future_forecast[0], future_forecast[-1])
highest = max(future_forecast[0], future_forecast[-1])
current = data[CLOSE].iloc[-1]
x = ((future_forecast[0] - future_forecast[-1]) /
future_forecast[0]) * 100
slope = (future_forecast[0] -
future_forecast[-1]) / n_periods_ahead
degree = math.degrees(math.atan(slope))
# Trending
if (x > 0):
trending = "Positivly / Call"
else:
trending = "Negativaly / Put"
# View
print("==========================")
print("Current Price: ", current)
print("Highest price: ", highest)
print("Lowest Price: ", lowest)
print("Trending: ", trending)
print("Degrees: ", degree)
print("==========================" + "\n")
except Exception as e:
print(e)
time.sleep(SLEEP)
return 0
whole_df = df.copy()
df = df.iloc[10:, :]
models_dir = "fitted_models"
if not os.path.isdir(models_dir):
os.mkdir(models_dir)
fname = "{}_model.pkl".format(dataset_name[:-4])
fpath = os.path.join(models_dir, fname)
if not os.path.isfile(fpath) or args.overwrite:
with warnings.catch_warnings():
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
arima = ARIMA(
order=saved_parameters["order"],
seasonal_order=saved_parameters["seasonal_order"]
)
arima.fit(df.value)
print("Saving fitted model on disk")
joblib.dump(arima, fpath, compress=3)
else:
print("Reading model from disk")
arima = joblib.load(fpath)
gt_pred, gt_windows = get_gt_arrays(
df.index, df.index, labels, labels_windows
)
# Compute metrics
metrics_columns = ["precision", "recall", "f_score", "nab_score"]
Metrics = collections.namedtuple("Metrics", metrics_columns)
window_size = 30
def ragged_fill_series(
series,
function=np.nanmean,
backup_fill_method=np.nanmean,
est_series=None,
fitted_arma=None,
arma_full_series=None,
):
"""Filling in the ragged ends of a series, adhering to the periodicity of the series. If there is only one observation and periodicity cannot be determined, series will be returned unchanged.
parameters:
:series: list/pandas Series: the series to fill the ragged edges of. Missings should be np.nans
:function: the function to fill nas with (e.g. np.nanmean, etc.). Use "ARMA" for ARMA filling
:backup_fill_method: function: which function to fill ragged edges with in case ARMA can't be estimated
:est_series: list/pandas Series: optional, the series to calculate the fillna and/or ARMA function on. Should not have nas filled in yet by any method. E.g. a train set. If None, will calculated based on itself.
:fitted_arma: optional, fitted ARMA model if available to avoid reestimating every time in the `gen_ragged_X` function
:arma_full_series: optional, for_full_arma_dataset output of `gen_dataset` function. Fitting the ARMA model on the full series history rather than just the series provided
output:
:return: pandas Series with filled ragged edges
"""
result = pd.Series(series).copy()
if est_series is None:
est_series = result.copy()
# periodicity of the series, to see which to fill in
nonna_bools = ~pd.isna(series)
nonna_indices = list(
nonna_bools.index[nonna_bools]) # existing indices with values
# if there is only one non-na observation, can't determine periodicity or position in full series, don't fill anything
if len(nonna_indices) > 1:
periodicity = int(
(pd.Series(result[~pd.isna(result)].index) -
(pd.Series(result[~pd.isna(result)].index)).shift()
).mode()[0]) # how often data comes (quarterly, monthly, etc.)
last_nonna = result.index[result.notna()][-1]
fill_indices = nonna_indices + [
int(nonna_indices[-1] + periodicity * i)
for i in range(1, (len(series) - last_nonna))
] # indices to be filled in, including only the correct periodicity
fill_indices = [x for x in fill_indices if x in series.index
] # cut down on the indices if went too long
if function == "ARMA":
# estimate the model if not given
if fitted_arma is None:
fitted_arma = estimate_arma(est_series)
# instantiate model with previously estimated parameters (i.e. on train set)
arma = ARIMA(order=fitted_arma.order)
arma.set_params(**fitted_arma.get_params())
# refit the model on the full series to this point
if arma_full_series is not None:
y = list(arma_full_series[~pd.isna(arma_full_series)])
present = list(result[~pd.isna(result)])
# limit the series to the point where actuals are
end_index = 0
for i in range(len(present), len(y) + 1):
if list(y[(i - len(present)):i]) == list(present):
end_index = i
y = y[:end_index]
# refit model on just this series
else:
y = list(result[~pd.isna(result)]) # refit the model on data
present = y.copy()
# can fail if not enough datapoints for order of ARMA process
try:
arma.fit(y, error_action="ignore")
preds = arma.predict(n_periods=int(len(series) - last_nonna))
fills = list(present) + list(preds)
fills = fills[:len(fill_indices)]
except:
fills = list(result[~pd.isna(result)]) + [
backup_fill_method(est_series)
] * (len(series) - last_nonna)
fills = fills[:len(fill_indices)]
result[fill_indices] = fills
else:
fills = list(result[~pd.isna(result)]) + [function(est_series)] * (
len(series) - last_nonna)
fills = fills[:len(fill_indices)]
result[fill_indices] = fills
return result, fitted_arma
