def define_loss(self, features, mode):
del mode # unused
return model.ModelOutputs(
loss=features["ticker"],
end_state=(features["ticker"], features["ticker"]),
prediction_times=tf.zeros(()),
predictions={"ticker": features["ticker"]})
def _process_window(self, features, mode, exogenous_regressors):
"""Compute model outputs on a single window of data."""
times = math_ops.cast(features[TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES], dtypes.int64)
values = math_ops.cast(features[TrainEvalFeatures.VALUES], dtype=self.dtype)
exogenous_regressors = math_ops.cast(exogenous_regressors, dtype=self.dtype)
original_values = values
# Extra shape checking for the window size (above that in
# `head.create_estimator_spec`).
expected_times_shape = [None, self.window_size]
if not times.get_shape().is_compatible_with(expected_times_shape):
raise ValueError(
("ARModel with input_window_size={input_window_size} "
"and output_window_size={output_window_size} expects "
"feature '{times_feature}' to have shape (batch_size, "
"{window_size}) (for any batch_size), but got shape {times_shape}. "
"If you are using RandomWindowInputFn, set "
"window_size={window_size} or adjust the input_window_size and "
"output_window_size arguments to ARModel.").format(
input_window_size=self.input_window_size,
output_window_size=self.output_window_size,
times_feature=TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES,
window_size=self.window_size,
times_shape=times.get_shape()))
values = self._scale_data(values)
if self.input_window_size > 0:
input_values = values[:, :self.input_window_size, :]
else:
input_values = None
prediction_ops = self.prediction_ops(
times, input_values, exogenous_regressors)
prediction = prediction_ops["mean"]
covariance = prediction_ops["covariance"]
targets = array_ops.slice(values, [0, self.input_window_size, 0],
[-1, -1, -1])
targets.get_shape().assert_is_compatible_with(prediction.get_shape())
if (mode == estimator_lib.ModeKeys.EVAL
and self.loss == ARModel.SQUARED_LOSS):
# Report an evaluation loss which matches the expected
# (observed - predicted) ** 2.
# Note that this affects only evaluation; the training loss is unaffected.
loss = self.loss_op(
self._scale_back_data(targets),
{"mean": self._scale_back_data(prediction_ops["mean"])})
else:
loss = self.loss_op(targets, prediction_ops)
# Scale back the prediction.
prediction = self._scale_back_data(prediction)
covariance = self._scale_back_variance(covariance)
return model.ModelOutputs(
loss=loss,
end_state=(times[:, -self.input_window_size:],
values[:, -self.input_window_size:, :],
exogenous_regressors[:, -self.input_window_size:, :]),
predictions={"mean": prediction, "covariance": covariance,
"observed": original_values[:, -self.output_window_size:]},
prediction_times=times[:, -self.output_window_size:])
def get_batch_loss(self, features, mode, state):
"""Computes predictions and a loss.
Args:
features: A dictionary (such as is produced by a chunker) with the
following key/value pairs (shapes are given as required for training):
TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES: A [batch size, self.window_size] integer
Tensor with times for each observation. To train on longer
sequences, the data should first be chunked.
TrainEvalFeatures.VALUES: A [batch size, self.window_size,
self.num_features] Tensor with values for each observation.
When evaluating, `TIMES` and `VALUES` must have a window size of at
least self.window_size, but it may be longer, in which case the last
window_size - self.input_window_size times (or fewer if this is not
divisible by self.output_window_size) will be evaluated on with
non-overlapping output windows (and will have associated
predictions). This is primarily to support qualitative
evaluation/plotting, and is not a recommended way to compute evaluation
losses (since there is no overlap in the output windows, which for
window-based models is an undesirable bias).
mode: The tf.estimator.ModeKeys mode to use (TRAIN or EVAL).
state: Unused
Returns:
A model.ModelOutputs object.
Raises:
ValueError: If `mode` is not TRAIN or EVAL, or if static shape information
is incorrect.
"""
features = {feature_name: ops.convert_to_tensor(feature_value)
for feature_name, feature_value in features.items()}
times = features[TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES]
exogenous_regressors = self._process_exogenous_features(
times=times,
features={key: value for key, value in features.items()
if key not in [TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES,
TrainEvalFeatures.VALUES,
PredictionFeatures.STATE_TUPLE]})
if mode == estimator_lib.ModeKeys.TRAIN:
# For training, we require the window size to be self.window_size as
# iterating sequentially on larger windows could introduce a bias.
return self._process_window(
features, mode=mode, exogenous_regressors=exogenous_regressors)
elif mode == estimator_lib.ModeKeys.EVAL:
# For evaluation, we allow the user to pass in a larger window, in which
# case we try to cover as much of the window as possible without
# overlap. Quantitative evaluation is more efficient/correct with fixed
# windows matching self.window_size (as with training), but this looping
# allows easy plotting of "in-sample" predictions.
times.get_shape().assert_has_rank(2)
static_window_size = times.get_shape().dims[1].value
if (static_window_size is not None
and static_window_size < self.window_size):
raise ValueError(
("ARModel requires a window of at least input_window_size + "
"output_window_size to evaluate on (input_window_size={}, "
"output_window_size={}, and got shape {} for feature '{}' (batch "
"size, window size)).").format(
self.input_window_size, self.output_window_size,
times.get_shape(), TrainEvalFeatures.TIMES))
num_iterations = ((array_ops.shape(times)[1] - self.input_window_size)
// self.output_window_size)
output_size = num_iterations * self.output_window_size
# Rather than dealing with overlapping windows of output, discard a bit at
# the beginning if output windows don't cover evenly.
crop_length = output_size + self.input_window_size
features = {feature_name: feature_value[:, -crop_length:]
for feature_name, feature_value in features.items()}
# Note that, unlike the ARModel's predict() while_loop, each iteration
# here can run in parallel, since we are not feeding predictions or state
# from previous iterations.
def _while_condition(iteration_number, loss_ta, mean_ta, covariance_ta):
del loss_ta, mean_ta, covariance_ta # unused
return iteration_number < num_iterations
def _while_body(iteration_number, loss_ta, mean_ta, covariance_ta):
"""Perform a processing step on a single window of data."""
base_offset = iteration_number * self.output_window_size
model_outputs = self._process_window(
features={
feature_name:
feature_value[:, base_offset:base_offset + self.window_size]
for feature_name, feature_value in features.items()},
mode=mode,
exogenous_regressors=exogenous_regressors[
:, base_offset:base_offset + self.window_size])
# This code needs to be updated if new predictions are added in
# self._process_window
assert len(model_outputs.predictions) == 3
assert "mean" in model_outputs.predictions
assert "covariance" in model_outputs.predictions
assert "observed" in model_outputs.predictions
return (iteration_number + 1,
loss_ta.write(
iteration_number, model_outputs.loss),
mean_ta.write(
iteration_number, model_outputs.predictions["mean"]),
covariance_ta.write(
iteration_number, model_outputs.predictions["covariance"]))
_, loss_ta, mean_ta, covariance_ta = control_flow_ops.while_loop(
_while_condition, _while_body,
[0,
tensor_array_ops.TensorArray(dtype=self.dtype, size=num_iterations),
tensor_array_ops.TensorArray(dtype=self.dtype, size=num_iterations),
tensor_array_ops.TensorArray(dtype=self.dtype, size=num_iterations)])
values = math_ops.cast(features[TrainEvalFeatures.VALUES],
dtype=self.dtype)
batch_size = array_ops.shape(times)[0]
prediction_shape = [batch_size, self.output_window_size * num_iterations,
self.num_features]
(previous_state_times,
previous_state_values,
previous_state_exogenous_regressors) = state
# Make sure returned state always has windows of self.input_window_size,
# even if we were passed fewer than self.input_window_size points this
# time.
if self.input_window_size > 0:
new_state_times = array_ops.concat(
[previous_state_times,
math_ops.cast(times, dtype=dtypes.int64)],
axis=1)[:, -self.input_window_size:]
new_state_times.set_shape((None, self.input_window_size))
new_state_values = array_ops.concat(
[previous_state_values,
self._scale_data(values)], axis=1)[:, -self.input_window_size:, :]
new_state_values.set_shape((None, self.input_window_size,
self.num_features))
new_exogenous_regressors = array_ops.concat(
[previous_state_exogenous_regressors,
exogenous_regressors], axis=1)[:, -self.input_window_size:, :]
new_exogenous_regressors.set_shape(
(None,
self.input_window_size,
self.exogenous_size))
else:
# There is no state to keep, and the strided slices above do not handle
# input_window_size=0.
new_state_times = previous_state_times
new_state_values = previous_state_values
new_exogenous_regressors = previous_state_exogenous_regressors
return model.ModelOutputs(
loss=math_ops.reduce_mean(loss_ta.stack(), axis=0),
end_state=(new_state_times,
new_state_values,
new_exogenous_regressors),
predictions={
"mean": array_ops.reshape(
array_ops.transpose(mean_ta.stack(), [1, 0, 2, 3]),
prediction_shape),
"covariance": array_ops.reshape(
array_ops.transpose(covariance_ta.stack(), [1, 0, 2, 3]),
prediction_shape),
"observed": values[:, -output_size:]},
prediction_times=times[:, -output_size:])
else:
raise ValueError(
"Unknown mode '{}' passed to get_batch_loss.".format(mode))