def init_objects_model(parameters, seed):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
historical_stock_returns = np.random.normal(0, parameters["white_noise"],
parameters['ticks'])
for idx in range(n_traders):
init_stocks = int(np.random.uniform(0, parameters["init_stocks"]))
init_money = np.random.uniform(
0, (parameters["init_stocks"] * parameters['init_price']))
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns, parameters["white_noise"])
lft_vars = TraderVariables(init_money, init_stocks,
init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['init_price'])
lft_params = TraderParameters(parameters['ticks'])
lft_expectations = TraderExpectations(parameters['init_price'])
traders.append(Trader(idx, lft_vars, lft_params, lft_expectations))
orderbook = LimitOrderBook(parameters['init_price'],
parameters["white_noise"], parameters['ticks'],
parameters['ticks'])
# initialize order-book returns for initial variance calculations
orderbook.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
return traders, orderbook
def init_objects_unequal(parameters, seed, equality=1.0):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:param equality: float to change init equality 0.01 is very unequal, to inf being very equal, the default 1.0 is equal to the uniform distribution
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
weight_f = (1 - parameters['strat_share_chartists']) * (
1 - parameters['w_random'])
weight_c = parameters['strat_share_chartists'] * (1 -
parameters['w_random'])
f_points = int(weight_f * 100 * n_traders)
c_points = int(weight_c * 100 * n_traders)
r_points = int(parameters['w_random'] * 100 * n_traders)
# create list of strategy points, shuffle it and divide in equal parts
strat_points = ['f' for f in range(f_points)] + [
'c' for c in range(c_points)
] + ['r' for r in range(r_points)]
random.shuffle(strat_points)
agent_points = np.array_split(strat_points, n_traders)
max_horizon = parameters[
'horizon'] * 2 # this is the max horizon of an agent if 100% fundamentalist
historical_stock_returns = np.random.normal(0,
parameters["std_fundamental"],
max_horizon)
init_distribution = np.random.power(equality, n_traders)
# normalize
init_distribution = init_distribution / init_distribution.sum()
for idx in range(n_traders):
weight_fundamentalist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('f') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_chartist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('c') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_random = list(agent_points[idx]).count('r') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
init_stocks = int(parameters["init_stocks"] * n_traders *
init_distribution[idx])
init_money = parameters["init_stocks"] * parameters[
'fundamental_value'] * n_traders * init_distribution[
idx] #TODO debug
c_share_strat = div0(weight_chartist,
(weight_fundamentalist + weight_chartist))
# initialize co_variance_matrix
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns, parameters["std_fundamental"])
lft_vars = TraderVariablesDistribution(weight_fundamentalist,
weight_chartist, weight_random,
c_share_strat, init_money,
init_stocks,
init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['fundamental_value'])
# determine heterogeneous horizon and risk aversion based on
individual_horizon = parameters[
'horizon'] #np.random.randint(10, parameters['horizon']) TODO, maybe change back
individual_risk_aversion = parameters[
"base_risk_aversion"] # abs(np.random.normal(parameters["base_risk_aversion"], parameters["base_risk_aversion"] / 5.0))#parameters["base_risk_aversion"] * relative_fundamentalism
individual_learning_ability = parameters[
'average_learning_ability'] #min(abs(np.random.normal(parameters['average_learning_ability'], 0.1)), 1.0) #TODO what to do with std_dev
lft_params = TraderParametersDistribution(individual_horizon,
individual_risk_aversion,
individual_learning_ability,
parameters['spread_max'])
lft_expectations = TraderExpectations(parameters['fundamental_value'])
traders.append(Trader(idx, lft_vars, lft_params, lft_expectations))
orderbook = LimitOrderBook(parameters['fundamental_value'],
parameters["std_fundamental"], max_horizon,
parameters['ticks'])
# initialize order-book returns for initial variance calculations
orderbook.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
return traders, orderbook
def pb_distr_model(traders, orderbook, parameters, seed=1):
"""
The main model function of distribution model where trader stocks are tracked.
:param traders: list of Agent objects
:param orderbook: object Order book
:param parameters: dictionary of parameters
:param seed: integer seed to initialise the random number generators
:return: list of simulated Agent objects, object simulated Order book
"""
random.seed(seed)
np.random.seed(seed)
fundamental = [parameters["fundamental_value"]]
orderbook.tick_close_price.append(fundamental[-1])
traders_by_wealth = [t for t in traders]
for tick in range(parameters['horizon'] + 1, parameters["ticks"] +
parameters['horizon'] + 1): # for init history
if tick == parameters['horizon'] + 1:
print('Start of simulation ', seed)
# update money and stocks history for agents
for trader in traders:
trader.var.money.append(trader.var.money[-1])
trader.var.stocks.append(trader.var.stocks[-1])
trader.var.wealth.append(
trader.var.money[-1] + trader.var.stocks[-1] *
orderbook.tick_close_price[-1]) # TODO debug
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist.append(
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1])
trader.var.weight_chartist.append(trader.var.weight_chartist[-1])
trader.var.weight_random.append(trader.var.weight_random[-1])
# sort the traders by wealth to TODo debug
traders_by_wealth.sort(key=lambda x: x.var.wealth[-1], reverse=True)
# evolve the fundamental value via random walk process
fundamental.append(
max(
fundamental[-1] +
parameters["std_fundamental"] * np.random.randn(), 0.1))
# allow for multiple trades in one day
for turn in range(parameters["trades_per_tick"]):
# select random sample of active traders
active_traders = random.sample(
traders, int((parameters['trader_sample_size'])))
mid_price = np.mean(
[orderbook.highest_bid_price,
orderbook.lowest_ask_price]) #TODO debug
fundamental_component = np.log(fundamental[-1] / mid_price)
orderbook.returns[-1] = (
mid_price - orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]
) / orderbook.tick_close_price[-2] #TODO debug
chartist_component = np.cumsum(
orderbook.returns[:-len(orderbook.returns) -
1:-1]) / np.arange(
1., float(len(orderbook.returns) + 1))
for trader in active_traders:
# Cancel any active orders
if trader.var.active_orders:
for order in trader.var.active_orders:
orderbook.cancel_order(order)
trader.var.active_orders = []
def evolve(probability):
return random.random() < probability
# Evolve an expectations parameter by learning from a successful trader or mutate at random
if evolve(trader.par.learning_ability):
wealthy_trader = traders_by_wealth[random.randint(
0, parameters['trader_sample_size'])]
trader.var.c_share_strat = np.mean([
trader.var.c_share_strat,
wealthy_trader.var.c_share_strat
])
else:
trader.var.c_share_strat = min(
max(
trader.var.c_share_strat *
(1 + parameters['mutation_intensity'] *
np.random.randn()), 0.01), 0.99)
# update fundamentalist & chartist weights
total_strat_weight = trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[
-1] + trader.var.weight_chartist[-1]
trader.var.weight_chartist[
-1] = trader.var.c_share_strat * total_strat_weight
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] = (
1 - trader.var.c_share_strat) * total_strat_weight
# record sentiment in orderbook
orderbook.sentiment.append(
np.array([
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1],
trader.var.weight_chartist[-1],
trader.var.weight_random[-1]
]))
# Update trader specific expectations
noise_component = parameters['std_noise'] * np.random.randn()
# Expectation formation
trader.exp.returns['stocks'] = (
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] * np.divide(
1,
float(trader.par.horizon) *
parameters["fundamentalist_horizon_multiplier"]) *
fundamental_component + trader.var.weight_chartist[-1] *
chartist_component[trader.par.horizon - 1] +
trader.var.weight_random[-1] * noise_component)
fcast_price = mid_price * np.exp(trader.exp.returns['stocks'])
trader.var.covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
orderbook.returns[-trader.par.horizon:],
parameters["std_fundamental"])
# employ portfolio optimization algo
ideal_trader_weights = portfolio_optimization(trader, tick)
# Determine price and volume
trader_price = np.random.normal(fcast_price, trader.par.spread)
position_change = (ideal_trader_weights['stocks'] *
(trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price +
trader.var.money[-1])) - (
trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price)
volume = int(div0(position_change, trader_price))
# Trade:
if volume > 0:
bid = orderbook.add_bid(trader_price, volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(bid)
elif volume < 0:
ask = orderbook.add_ask(trader_price, -volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(ask)
# Match orders in the order-book
while True:
matched_orders = orderbook.match_orders()
if matched_orders is None:
break
# execute trade
matched_orders[3].owner.sell(
matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
matched_orders[2].owner.buy(
matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
# Clear and update order-book history
orderbook.cleanse_book()
orderbook.fundamental = fundamental
return traders, orderbook
def init_objects(parameters, seed):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
weight_f = (1 - parameters['strat_share_chartists']) * (
1 - parameters['w_random'])
weight_c = parameters['strat_share_chartists'] * (1 -
parameters['w_random'])
f_points = int(weight_f * 100 * n_traders)
c_points = int(weight_c * 100 * n_traders)
r_points = int(parameters['w_random'] * 100 * n_traders)
# create list of strategy points, shuffle it and divide in equal parts
strat_points = ['f' for f in range(f_points)] + [
'c' for c in range(c_points)
] + ['r' for r in range(r_points)]
random.shuffle(strat_points)
agent_points = np.array_split(strat_points, n_traders)
max_horizon = parameters[
'horizon'] * 2 # this is the max horizon of an agent if 100% fundamentalist
historical_stock_returns = np.random.normal(0,
parameters["std_fundamental"],
max_horizon)
for idx in range(n_traders):
weight_fundamentalist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('f') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_chartist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('c') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_random = list(agent_points[idx]).count('r') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
init_stocks = int(np.random.uniform(0, parameters["init_stocks"]))
init_money = np.random.uniform(
0, (parameters["init_stocks"] * parameters['fundamental_value']))
if weight_random < 1.0:
c_share_strat = div0(weight_chartist,
(weight_fundamentalist + weight_chartist))
else:
c_share_strat = 0.0
# initialize co_variance_matrix
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns, parameters["std_fundamental"])
lft_vars = TraderVariables(weight_fundamentalist, weight_chartist,
weight_random, c_share_strat, init_money,
init_stocks, init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['fundamental_value'])
# determine heterogeneous horizon and risk aversion based on
individual_horizon = np.random.randint(10, parameters['horizon'])
individual_risk_aversion = abs(
np.random.normal(parameters["base_risk_aversion"],
parameters["base_risk_aversion"] / 5.0)
) #parameters["base_risk_aversion"] * relative_fundamentalism
individual_learning_ability = min(
abs(np.random.normal(parameters['average_learning_ability'], 0.1)),
1.0) #TODO what to do with std_dev
lft_params = TraderParameters(individual_horizon,
individual_risk_aversion,
individual_learning_ability,
parameters['spread_max'])
lft_expectations = TraderExpectations(parameters['fundamental_value'])
traders.append(Trader(idx, lft_vars, lft_params, lft_expectations))
# Add market maker with 100k money and 1k stocks
mm_tradervariables = TraderVariables(
weight_fundamentalist=0,
weight_chartist=0,
weight_random=0,
c_share_strat=0,
money=100000,
stocks=1000,
covariance_matrix=0,
init_price=parameters['fundamental_value'])
mm_traderparams = TraderParameters(ref_horizon=0,
risk_aversion=0,
learning_ability=0.0,
max_spread=10000)
mm_traderexp = TraderExpectations(parameters['fundamental_value'])
market_maker = Trader(0, mm_tradervariables, mm_traderparams, mm_traderexp)
orderbook = LimitOrderBook(parameters['fundamental_value'],
parameters["std_fundamental"], max_horizon,
parameters['ticks'])
# initialize order-book returns for initial variance calculations
orderbook.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
return traders, orderbook, market_maker
def exuberance_inequality_model(traders, orderbook, parameters, seed=1):
"""
The main model function of distribution model where trader stocks are tracked.
:param traders: list of Agent objects
:param orderbook: object Order book
:param parameters: dictionary of parameters
:param seed: integer seed to initialise the random number generators
:return: list of simulated Agent objects, object simulated Order book
"""
random.seed(seed)
np.random.seed(seed)
fundamental = [parameters["fundamental_value"]]
orderbook.tick_close_price.append(fundamental[-1])
traders_by_wealth = [t for t in traders]
for tick in range(parameters['horizon'] + 1, parameters["ticks"] + parameters['horizon'] + 1): # for init history
if tick == parameters['horizon'] + 1:
print('Start of simulation ', seed)
# update money and stocks history for agents
for trader in traders:
trader.var.money.append(trader.var.money[-1])
trader.var.stocks.append(trader.var.stocks[-1])
trader.var.wealth.append(trader.var.money[-1] + trader.var.stocks[-1] * orderbook.tick_close_price[-1])
trader.var.real_wealth.append(trader.var.money[-1] + trader.var.stocks[-1] * fundamental[-1])
# sort the traders by wealth to
traders_by_wealth.sort(key=lambda x: x.var.wealth[-1], reverse=True)
# For simplicity, the fundamental value does not change.
fundamental.append(fundamental[-1])
# select random sample of active traders
active_traders = random.sample(traders, int((parameters['trader_sample_size'])))
mid_price = np.mean([orderbook.highest_bid_price, orderbook.lowest_ask_price])
fundamental_component = np.log(fundamental[-1] / mid_price)
orderbook.returns[-1] = (mid_price - orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]) / orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]
chartist_component = np.cumsum(orderbook.returns[:-len(orderbook.returns) - 1:-1]
) / np.arange(1., float(len(orderbook.returns) + 1))
for trader in active_traders:
# Cancel any active orders
if trader.var.active_orders:
for order in trader.var.active_orders:
orderbook.cancel_order(order)
trader.var.active_orders = []
# Update trader specific expectations
noise_component = parameters['std_noise'] * np.random.randn()
# Expectation formation
trader.exp.returns['stocks'] = (
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] * np.divide(1, float(trader.par.horizon) * parameters["fundamentalist_horizon_multiplier"]) * fundamental_component +
trader.var.weight_chartist[-1] * chartist_component[trader.par.horizon - 1] +
trader.var.weight_random[-1] * noise_component)
fcast_price = mid_price * np.exp(trader.exp.returns['stocks'])
trader.var.covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(orderbook.returns[-trader.par.horizon:],
parameters["std_noise"])
# employ portfolio optimization algo
ideal_trader_weights = portfolio_optimization(trader, tick)
# Determine price and volume
trader_price = np.random.normal(fcast_price, trader.par.spread)
position_change = (ideal_trader_weights['stocks'] * (trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price + trader.var.money[-1])
) - (trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price)
volume = int(div0(position_change, trader_price))
# Trade:
if volume > 0:
bid = orderbook.add_bid(trader_price, volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(bid)
elif volume < 0:
ask = orderbook.add_ask(trader_price, -volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(ask)
# Match orders in the order-book
while True:
matched_orders = orderbook.match_orders()
if matched_orders is None:
break
# execute trade
matched_orders[3].owner.sell(matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
matched_orders[2].owner.buy(matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
# Clear and update order-book history
orderbook.cleanse_book()
orderbook.fundamental = fundamental
print('last mid-price was: ', mid_price)
return traders, orderbook
def init_objects(parameters, seed):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
weight_f = (1 - parameters['strat_share_chartists']) * (
1 - parameters['w_random'])
weight_c = parameters['strat_share_chartists'] * (1 -
parameters['w_random'])
f_points = int(weight_f * 100 * n_traders)
c_points = int(weight_c * 100 * n_traders)
r_points = int(parameters['w_random'] * 100 * n_traders)
# create list of strategy points, shuffle it and divide in equal parts
strat_points = ['f' for f in range(f_points)] + [
'c' for c in range(c_points)
] + ['r' for r in range(r_points)]
random.shuffle(strat_points)
agent_points = np.array_split(strat_points, n_traders)
max_horizon = parameters[
'horizon'] * 2 # this is the max horizon of an agent if 100% fundamentalist
historical_stock_returns = list(
np.random.normal(0, parameters["std_fundamental"], max_horizon))
total_stocks = 0
for idx in range(n_traders):
weight_fundamentalist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('f') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_chartist = list(agent_points[idx]).count('c') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
weight_random = list(agent_points[idx]).count('r') / float(
len(agent_points[idx]))
init_stocks = int(np.random.uniform(0, parameters["init_assets"]))
total_stocks += init_stocks
init_money = np.random.uniform(
0, (init_stocks * parameters['fundamental_value'] *
parameters['money_multiplier']))
c_share_strat = div0(weight_chartist,
(weight_fundamentalist + weight_chartist))
# initialize co_variance_matrix
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns)
init_active_orders = []
lft_vars = TraderVariables(weight_fundamentalist, weight_chartist,
weight_random, c_share_strat, init_money,
init_stocks, init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['fundamental_value'],
init_active_orders)
# determine heterogeneous horizon and risk aversion
individual_horizon = np.random.randint(10, parameters['horizon'])
individual_risk_aversion = abs(
np.random.normal(parameters["base_risk_aversion"],
parameters["base_risk_aversion"] / 5.0))
individual_learning_ability = min(
abs(np.random.normal(parameters['average_learning_ability'], 0.1)),
1.0)
lft_params = TraderParameters(individual_horizon,
individual_risk_aversion,
individual_learning_ability,
parameters['spread_max'])
exp_returns = {'risky_asset': 0.0, 'money': 0.0}
lft_expectations = TraderExpectations(parameters['fundamental_value'],
exp_returns)
traders.append(Trader(idx, lft_vars, lft_params, lft_expectations))
# initialize central bank with assets at target
asset_target_cb = int(parameters["qe_perc_size"] * total_stocks)
asset_target = [asset_target_cb for t in range(parameters['ticks'])]
## TODO new
# Determine QE volume
if parameters["qe_end"] - parameters["qe_start"] > 0:
QE_periods = parameters["qe_end"] - parameters["qe_start"]
total_QE_volume = parameters["qe_perc_size"] * total_stocks
period_volume = int(total_QE_volume / QE_periods)
#asset_target = [0 for t in range(parameters['ticks'])]
for t in range(parameters['ticks']):
if t in range(parameters["qe_start"], parameters["qe_end"]):
asset_target[t] = asset_target[t - 1] + period_volume
elif t >= parameters["qe_end"]:
asset_target[t] = asset_target[t - 1]
##
cb_assets = [asset_target_cb for t in range(parameters['ticks'])]
currency = np.zeros(parameters["ticks"])
currency -= np.array(cb_assets) * parameters["fundamental_value"]
asset_demand = 0
init_active_orders_cb = []
cb_pars = CBParameters(0.0)
cb_vars = CBVariables(cb_assets, currency, asset_demand, asset_target,
init_active_orders_cb)
central_bank = CentralBank(cb_vars, cb_pars)
# initialize the order book
order_book = LimitOrderBook(parameters['fundamental_value'],
parameters["std_fundamental"], max_horizon,
parameters['ticks'])
order_book.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
order_book.qe_period = [False for t in range(parameters['ticks'])]
order_book.qt_period = [False for t in range(parameters['ticks'])]
return traders, central_bank, order_book
def init_objects_distr(parameters, seed):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
max_horizon = parameters[
'horizon'] * 2 # this is the max horizon of an agent if 100% fundamentalist
historical_stock_returns = np.random.normal(0,
parameters["std_fundamental"],
max_horizon)
for idx in range(n_traders):
weight_fundamentalist = abs(
np.random.laplace(parameters['w_fundamentalists'],
parameters['w_fundamentalists']**2))
weight_chartist = abs(
np.random.laplace(parameters['w_momentum'],
parameters['w_momentum']**2))
weight_random = abs(
np.random.laplace(parameters['w_random'],
parameters['w_random']**2))
forecast_adjust = 1. / (weight_fundamentalist + weight_chartist +
weight_random)
init_stocks = int(np.random.uniform(0, parameters["init_stocks"]))
init_money = np.random.uniform(
0, (parameters["init_stocks"] * parameters['fundamental_value']))
# initialize co_variance_matrix
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns, parameters["std_fundamental"])
lft_vars = TraderVariablesDistribution(weight_fundamentalist,
weight_chartist, weight_random,
forecast_adjust, init_money,
init_stocks,
init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['fundamental_value'])
# determine heterogeneous horizon and risk aversion based on
individual_horizon = np.random.randint(10, parameters['horizon'])
individual_risk_aversion = abs(
np.random.normal(parameters["base_risk_aversion"],
parameters["base_risk_aversion"] / 5.0)
) #parameters["base_risk_aversion"] * relative_fundamentalism
individual_learning_ability = np.random.uniform(
high=parameters["mutation_probability"]
) #TODO update to be more elegant
lft_params = TraderParametersDistribution(individual_horizon,
individual_risk_aversion,
individual_learning_ability,
parameters['spread_max'])
lft_expectations = TraderExpectations(parameters['fundamental_value'])
traders.append(Trader(idx, lft_vars, lft_params, lft_expectations))
orderbook = LimitOrderBook(parameters['fundamental_value'],
parameters["std_fundamental"], max_horizon,
parameters['ticks'])
# initialize order-book returns for initial variance calculations
orderbook.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
return traders, orderbook
def qe_model(traders,
central_bank,
orderbook,
parameters,
scenario=None,
seed=1):
"""
The main model function of distribution model where trader stocks are tracked.
:param traders: list of Agent objects
:param orderbook: object Order book
:param parameters: dictionary of parameters
:param scenario: can be the following strings: BUSTQE, BUSTQT, BOOMQE, BOOMQT
:param seed: integer seed to initialise the random number generators
:return: list of simulated Agent objects, object simulated Order book
"""
random.seed(seed)
np.random.seed(seed)
fundamentals = [parameters["fundamental_value"]]
orderbook.tick_close_price.append(fundamentals[-1])
traders_by_wealth = [t for t in traders]
for tick in range(parameters['horizon'] + 1,
parameters["ticks"] + parameters['horizon'] + 1):
qe_tick = tick - parameters[
'horizon'] - 1 # correcting for the memory period necessary for traders
if tick == parameters['horizon'] + 1:
print('Start of simulation ', seed)
print(tick)
# if tick == 419:
# print('debug')
# update money and stocks history for agents
for trader in traders:
trader.var.money.append(trader.var.money[-1])
trader.var.assets.append(trader.var.assets[-1]) #TODO debug
trader.var.wealth.append(trader.var.money[-1] +
trader.var.assets[-1] *
orderbook.tick_close_price[-1])
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist.append(
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1])
trader.var.weight_chartist.append(trader.var.weight_chartist[-1])
trader.var.weight_random.append(trader.var.weight_random[-1])
# update money and assets for central bank
central_bank.var.assets[qe_tick] = central_bank.var.assets[qe_tick - 1]
if scenario in ['BUSTQE', 'BUSTQT', 'BOOMQE', 'BOOMQT', 'BLR']:
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] = central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick - 1]
central_bank.var.currency[qe_tick] = central_bank.var.currency[qe_tick
- 1]
# sort the traders by wealth to
traders_by_wealth.sort(key=lambda x: x.var.wealth[-1], reverse=True)
# evolve the fundamental value via random walk process
if True: #TODO decide what to use.
fundamentals.append(
max(
ornstein_uhlenbeck_evolve(
parameters["fundamental_value"], fundamentals[-1],
parameters["std_fundamental"],
parameters['bond_mean_reversion'], seed), 0.1))
else:
fundamentals.append(
max(
fundamentals[-1] +
parameters["std_fundamentals"] * np.random.randn(), 0.1))
# allow for multiple trades in one day
for turn in range(parameters["trades_per_tick"]):
# Allow the central bank to do Quantitative Easing ####################################################
if central_bank.var.active_orders:
for order in central_bank.var.active_orders:
orderbook.cancel_order(order)
central_bank.var.active_orders = []
# calculate PF ratio
mid_price = np.mean(
[orderbook.highest_bid_price, orderbook.lowest_ask_price])
pf = mid_price / fundamentals[-1]
# if pf is too high, decrease asset target otherwise increase asset target
quantity_available = int(central_bank.var.assets[qe_tick] *
parameters['cb_size']) # TODO debug
if scenario == 'BUSTQE':
if pf < 1 - parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# buy assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] += quantity_available
elif scenario == 'BUSTQT':
if pf < 1 - parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# sell assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] -= quantity_available
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick] = max(
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick], 0)
elif scenario == 'BOOMQE':
if pf > 1 + parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# buy assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] += quantity_available
elif scenario == 'BOOMQT':
if pf > 1 + parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# sell assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] -= quantity_available
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick] = max(
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick], 0)
elif scenario == 'BLR':
if pf > 1 + parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# sell assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] -= quantity_available
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick] = max(
central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick], 0)
elif pf < 1 - parameters['cb_pf_range']:
# buy assets
central_bank.var.asset_target[
qe_tick] += quantity_available
# determine demand
cb_demand = int(central_bank.var.asset_target[qe_tick] -
central_bank.var.assets[qe_tick]) # TODO debug
# Submit QE orders:
if cb_demand > 0:
bid = orderbook.add_bid(orderbook.lowest_ask_price, cb_demand,
central_bank)
central_bank.var.active_orders.append(bid)
print('cb QE')
orderbook.qe_period[qe_tick] = True
elif cb_demand < 0:
ask = orderbook.add_ask(orderbook.highest_bid_price,
-cb_demand, central_bank)
central_bank.var.active_orders.append(ask)
print('cb QT')
orderbook.qt_period[qe_tick] = True
# END QE ##############################################################################################
# select random sample of active traders
active_traders = random.sample(
traders, int((parameters['trader_sample_size'])))
orderbook.returns[-1] = (
mid_price - orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]
) / orderbook.tick_close_price[-2] #todo is this correct
fundamental_component = np.log(fundamentals[-1] / mid_price)
chartist_component = np.cumsum(
orderbook.returns[:-len(orderbook.returns) -
1:-1]) / np.arange(
1., float(len(orderbook.returns) + 1))
for trader in active_traders:
# Cancel any active orders
if trader.var.active_orders:
for order in trader.var.active_orders:
orderbook.cancel_order(order)
trader.var.active_orders = []
def evolve(probability):
return random.random() < probability
# Evolve an expectations parameter by learning from a successful trader or mutate at random
if evolve(trader.par.learning_ability):
wealthy_trader = traders_by_wealth[random.randint(
0, parameters['trader_sample_size'])]
trader.var.c_share_strat = np.mean([
trader.var.c_share_strat,
wealthy_trader.var.c_share_strat
])
else:
trader.var.c_share_strat = min(
max(
trader.var.c_share_strat *
(1 + parameters['mutation_intensity'] *
np.random.randn()), 0.01), 0.99)
# update fundamentalist & chartist weights
total_strat_weight = trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[
-1] + trader.var.weight_chartist[-1]
trader.var.weight_chartist[
-1] = trader.var.c_share_strat * total_strat_weight
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] = (
1 - trader.var.c_share_strat) * total_strat_weight
# record sentiment in orderbook
orderbook.sentiment.append(
np.array([
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1],
trader.var.weight_chartist[-1],
trader.var.weight_random[-1]
]))
# Update trader specific expectations
noise_component = parameters['std_noise'] * np.random.randn()
# Expectation formation
#TODO fix below exp returns per stock asset
trader.exp.returns['risky_asset'] = (
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] * np.divide(
1,
float(trader.par.horizon) *
parameters["fundamentalist_horizon_multiplier"]) *
fundamental_component + trader.var.weight_chartist[-1] *
chartist_component[trader.par.horizon - 1] +
trader.var.weight_random[-1] * noise_component)
fcast_price = mid_price * np.exp(
trader.exp.returns['risky_asset'])
obs_rets = orderbook.returns[-trader.par.horizon:]
if sum(np.abs(obs_rets)) > 0:
observed_returns = obs_rets
else:
observed_returns = np.diff(
fundamentals)[-trader.par.horizon:]
trader.var.covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
observed_returns) #TODo debug, does this work as intended?
# employ portfolio optimization algo TODO if observed returns 0 (replace with stdev fundamental?
ideal_trader_weights = portfolio_optimization(
trader,
tick) #TODO debug, does this still work as intended
# Determine price and volume
trader_price = np.random.normal(fcast_price, trader.par.spread)
position_change = (ideal_trader_weights['risky_asset'] *
(trader.var.assets[-1] * trader_price +
trader.var.money[-1])) - (
trader.var.assets[-1] * trader_price)
volume = int(div0(position_change, trader_price))
# Trade:
if volume > 0:
volume = min(
volume, int(div0(trader.var.money[-1], trader_price))
) # the trader can only buy new stocks with money
bid = orderbook.add_bid(trader_price, volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(bid)
elif volume < 0:
volume = max(
volume, -trader.var.assets[-1]
) # the trader can only sell as much assets as it owns
ask = orderbook.add_ask(trader_price, -volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(ask)
# Match orders in the order-book
while True:
matched_orders = orderbook.match_orders()
if matched_orders is None:
break
# execute trade
matched_orders[3].owner.sell(
matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1],
qe_tick)
matched_orders[2].owner.buy(
matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1],
qe_tick)
# Clear and update order-book history
orderbook.cleanse_book()
orderbook.fundamental = fundamentals
return traders, central_bank, orderbook
def ABM_model(traders, orderbook, market_maker, parameters, seed=1):
"""
The main model function of distribution model where trader stocks are tracked.
:param traders: list of Agent objects
:param orderbook: object Order book
:param parameters: dictionary of parameters
:param seed: integer seed to initialise the random number generators
:return: list of simulated Agent objects, object simulated Order book
"""
random.seed(seed)
np.random.seed(seed)
fundamental = [parameters["fundamental_value"]]
orderbook.tick_close_price.append(fundamental[-1])
traders_by_wealth = [t for t in traders]
initial_mm_wealth = market_maker.var.wealth[0]
for tick in range(parameters['horizon'] + 1, parameters["ticks"] + parameters['horizon'] + 1): # for init history
if tick == parameters['horizon'] + 1:
print('Start of simulation ', seed)
# update money and stocks history for agents
for trader in traders:
trader.var.money.append(trader.var.money[-1])
trader.var.stocks.append(trader.var.stocks[-1])
trader.var.wealth.append(trader.var.money[-1] + trader.var.stocks[-1] * orderbook.tick_close_price[-1])
#TODO Jakob and / or Adrien update variables of the market maker here (similar to above)
# sort the traders by wealth to
traders_by_wealth.sort(key=lambda x: x.var.wealth[-1], reverse=True)
# evolve the fundamental value via random walk process
fundamental.append(max(
ornstein_uhlenbeck_evolve(parameters["fundamental_value"], fundamental[-1], parameters["std_fundamental"],
parameters['mean_reversion'], seed), 0.1))
# allow for multiple trades in one day
for turn in range(parameters["trades_per_tick"]):
# select random sample of active traders
active_traders = random.sample(traders, int((parameters['trader_sample_size'])))
mid_price = np.mean([orderbook.highest_bid_price, orderbook.lowest_ask_price])
fundamental_component = np.log(fundamental[-1] / mid_price)
orderbook.returns[-1] = (mid_price - orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]) / orderbook.tick_close_price[-2]
chartist_component = np.cumsum(orderbook.returns[:-len(orderbook.returns) - 1:-1]
) / np.arange(1., float(len(orderbook.returns) + 1))
# Market maker quotes best ask and bid whenever money/inventory permits
# TODO Jakob / Adrien make the market maker use stock / money / wealth data over time (see traders)
inventory = market_maker.var.stocks[0]
inventory_value = mid_price*inventory
cash = market_maker.var.money[0]
wealth = cash + inventory_value
print(f"Market maker has money {cash} and stocks {inventory}")
print(f"Stocks are worth {inventory_value} and thus MM's wealth is {wealth}")
print(f"Profit margin thus far is {round(wealth/initial_mm_wealth-1,2)*100}%")
if cash > 0:
bid = orderbook.add_bid(orderbook.highest_bid_price, 1, market_maker)
market_maker.var.active_orders.append(bid)
if inventory > 0:
ask = orderbook.add_ask(orderbook.lowest_ask_price, 1, market_maker)
market_maker.var.active_orders.append(ask)
for trader in active_traders:
# Cancel any active orders
if trader.var.active_orders:
for order in trader.var.active_orders:
orderbook.cancel_order(order)
trader.var.active_orders = []
# Update trader specific expectations
noise_component = parameters['std_noise'] * np.random.randn()
# Expectation formation
trader.exp.returns['stocks'] = (
trader.var.weight_fundamentalist[-1] * np.divide(1, float(trader.par.horizon) * parameters["fundamentalist_horizon_multiplier"]) * fundamental_component +
trader.var.weight_chartist[-1] * chartist_component[trader.par.horizon - 1] +
trader.var.weight_random[-1] * noise_component)
fcast_price = mid_price * np.exp(trader.exp.returns['stocks'])
trader.var.covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(orderbook.returns[-trader.par.horizon:],
parameters["std_fundamental"])
# employ portfolio optimization algo
ideal_trader_weights = portfolio_optimization(trader, tick)
# Determine price and volume
trader_price = np.random.normal(fcast_price, trader.par.spread)
position_change = (ideal_trader_weights['stocks'] * (trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price + trader.var.money[-1])
) - (trader.var.stocks[-1] * trader_price)
volume = int(div0(position_change, trader_price))
# Trade:
if volume > 0:
bid = orderbook.add_bid(trader_price, volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(bid)
elif volume < 0:
ask = orderbook.add_ask(trader_price, -volume, trader)
trader.var.active_orders.append(ask)
# Match orders in the order-book
while True:
matched_orders = orderbook.match_orders()
if matched_orders is None:
break
# execute trade
matched_orders[3].owner.sell(matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
matched_orders[2].owner.buy(matched_orders[1], matched_orders[0] * matched_orders[1])
# Clear and update order-book history
orderbook.cleanse_book()
orderbook.fundamental = fundamental
return traders, orderbook, market_maker
def init_objects(parameters, seed):
"""
Init object for the distribution version of the model
:param parameters:
:param seed:
:return:
"""
np.random.seed(seed)
random.seed(seed)
traders = []
n_traders = parameters["n_traders"]
weight_f = (1 - parameters['strat_share_chartists']) * (
1 - parameters['w_random'])
weight_c = parameters['strat_share_chartists'] * (1 -
parameters['w_random'])
f_points = int(weight_f * 100 * n_traders)
c_points = int(weight_c * 100 * n_traders)
r_points = int(parameters['w_random'] * 100 * n_traders)
# create list of strategy points, shuffle it and divide in equal parts
strat_points = ['f' for f in range(f_points)] + [
'c' for c in range(c_points)
] + ['r' for r in range(r_points)]
random.shuffle(strat_points)
agent_points = np.array_split(strat_points, n_traders)
max_horizon = int(
parameters['horizon'] * parameters['fundamentalist_horizon_multiplier']
) + 1 # to offset rounding
historical_stock_returns = np.random.normal(0, parameters["std_noise"],
max_horizon)
for idx in range(n_traders):
weights = []
for typ in ['f', 'c', 'r']:
weights.append(
list(agent_points[idx]).count(typ) /
float(len(agent_points[idx])))
init_stocks = int(np.random.uniform(0, parameters["init_stocks"]))
init_money = np.random.uniform(
0, (parameters["init_stocks"] * parameters['fundamental_value']))
# If there are chartists (c) & fundamentalists (f) in the model, keep track of the fraction between c & f.
if weights[2] < 1.0:
c_share_strat = div0(weights[1], (weights[0] + weights[1]))
else:
c_share_strat = 0.0
init_covariance_matrix = calculate_covariance_matrix(
historical_stock_returns, parameters["std_noise"])
trader_vars = TraderVariables(weights[0], weights[1], weights[2],
c_share_strat, init_money, init_stocks,
init_covariance_matrix,
parameters['fundamental_value'])
individual_horizon = np.random.randint(10, parameters['horizon'])
individual_risk_aversion = abs(
np.random.normal(parameters["base_risk_aversion"],
parameters["base_risk_aversion"] / 5.0)
) #parameters["base_risk_aversion"] * relative_fundamentalism
trader_params = TraderParameters(individual_horizon,
individual_risk_aversion,
parameters['spread_max'])
trader_expectations = TraderExpectations(
parameters['fundamental_value'])
traders.append(
Trader(idx, trader_vars, trader_params, trader_expectations))
order_book = LimitOrderBook(parameters['fundamental_value'],
parameters["std_noise"], max_horizon,
parameters['ticks'])
# initialize order-book returns for initial variance calculations
order_book.returns = list(historical_stock_returns)
return traders, order_book