class DependentMaternGP(TimeSeriesModel):
"""
A time series model in which each output dimension is modeled as a univariate Gaussian Process
with a Matern kernel. The different output dimensions become correlated because the Gaussian
Processes are driven by a correlated Wiener process; see reference [1] for details.
The targets are assumed to be evenly spaced in time. Training and inference are logarithmic
in the length of the time series T.
:param float nu: The order of the Matern kernel; must be 1.5.
:param float dt: The time spacing between neighboring observations of the time series.
:param int obs_dim: The dimension of the targets at each time step.
:param torch.Tensor log_length_scale_init: optional initial values for the kernel length scale
given as a `obs_dim`-dimensional tensor
:param torch.Tensor log_obs_noise_scale_init: optional initial values for the observation noise scale
given as a `obs_dim`-dimensional tensor
References
[1] "Dependent Matern Processes for Multivariate Time Series," Alexander Vandenberg-Rodes, Babak Shahbaba.
"""
def __init__(self,
nu=1.5,
dt=1.0,
obs_dim=1,
log_length_scale_init=None,
log_obs_noise_scale_init=None):
if nu != 1.5:
raise NotImplementedError("The only supported value of nu is 1.5")
self.dt = dt
self.obs_dim = obs_dim
if log_obs_noise_scale_init is None:
log_obs_noise_scale_init = -2.0 * torch.ones(obs_dim)
assert log_obs_noise_scale_init.shape == (obs_dim, )
super().__init__()
self.kernel = MaternKernel(nu=nu,
num_gps=obs_dim,
log_length_scale_init=log_length_scale_init)
self.full_state_dim = self.kernel.state_dim * obs_dim
# we demote self.kernel.log_kernel_scale from being a nn.Parameter
# since the relevant scales are now encoded in the wiener noise matrix
del self.kernel.log_kernel_scale
self.kernel.register_buffer("log_kernel_scale", torch.zeros(obs_dim))
self.log_obs_noise_scale = nn.Parameter(log_obs_noise_scale_init)
self.log_diag_wiener_noise = nn.Parameter(torch.zeros(obs_dim))
self.off_diag_wiener_noise = nn.Parameter(
0.03 * torch.randn(obs_dim, obs_dim))
obs_matrix = torch.zeros(self.full_state_dim, obs_dim)
for i in range(obs_dim):
obs_matrix[self.kernel.state_dim * i, i] = 1.0
self.register_buffer("obs_matrix", obs_matrix)
def _get_obs_noise_scale(self):
return self.log_obs_noise_scale.exp()
def _get_init_dist(self, stationary_covariance):
return torch.distributions.MultivariateNormal(
self.obs_matrix.new_zeros(self.full_state_dim),
stationary_covariance)
def _get_obs_dist(self):
return dist.Normal(self.obs_matrix.new_zeros(self.obs_dim),
self._get_obs_noise_scale()).to_event(1)
def _get_wiener_cov(self):
eye = torch.eye(self.obs_dim,
device=self.obs_matrix.device,
dtype=self.obs_matrix.dtype)
chol = eye * self.log_diag_wiener_noise.exp(
) + self.off_diag_wiener_noise.tril(-1)
wiener_cov = torch.mm(chol, chol.t()).reshape(self.obs_dim, 1,
self.obs_dim, 1)
wiener_cov = wiener_cov * wiener_cov.new_ones(self.kernel.state_dim, 1,
self.kernel.state_dim)
return wiener_cov.reshape(self.full_state_dim, self.full_state_dim)
def _stationary_covariance(self):
rho_j = math.sqrt(3.0) * (
-self.kernel.log_length_scale).exp().unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1)
rho_i = rho_j.unsqueeze(-1)
block = 2.0 * self.kernel.mask00 + \
(rho_i - rho_j) * (self.kernel.mask01 - self.kernel.mask10) + \
(2.0 * rho_i * rho_j) * self.kernel.mask11
block = block / (rho_i + rho_j).pow(3.0)
block = block.transpose(-2, -3).reshape(self.full_state_dim,
self.full_state_dim)
return self._get_wiener_cov() * block
def _get_trans_dist(self, trans_matrix, stationary_covariance):
covar = stationary_covariance - torch.matmul(
trans_matrix.transpose(-1, -2),
torch.matmul(stationary_covariance, trans_matrix))
return MultivariateNormal(covar.new_zeros(self.full_state_dim), covar)
def _trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(self, dts):
stationary_covariance = self._stationary_covariance()
trans_matrix = self.kernel.transition_matrix(dt=dts)
trans_matrix = block_diag_embed(trans_matrix)
trans_dist = self._get_trans_dist(trans_matrix, stationary_covariance)
return trans_matrix, trans_dist, stationary_covariance
def _get_dist(self):
"""
Get the `GaussianHMM` distribution that corresponds to a `DependentMaternGP`
"""
trans_matrix, trans_dist, stat_covar = self._trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(
self.dt)
return dist.GaussianHMM(self._get_init_dist(stat_covar), trans_matrix,
trans_dist, self.obs_matrix,
self._get_obs_dist())
def log_prob(self, targets):
"""
:param torch.Tensor targets: A 2-dimensional tensor of real-valued targets
of shape `(T, obs_dim)`, where `T` is the length of the time series and `obs_dim`
is the dimension of the real-valued `targets` at each time step
:returns torch.Tensor: A (scalar) log probability
"""
assert targets.dim() == 2 and targets.size(-1) == self.obs_dim
return self._get_dist().log_prob(targets)
@torch.no_grad()
def _filter(self, targets):
"""
Return the filtering state for the associated state space model.
"""
assert targets.dim() == 2 and targets.size(-1) == self.obs_dim
return self._get_dist().filter(targets)
@torch.no_grad()
def _forecast(self, dts, filtering_state, include_observation_noise=True):
"""
Internal helper for forecasting.
"""
assert dts.dim() == 1
dts = dts.unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1)
trans_matrix, trans_dist, _ = self._trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(
dts)
trans_obs = torch.matmul(trans_matrix, self.obs_matrix)
predicted_mean = torch.matmul(filtering_state.loc.unsqueeze(-2),
trans_obs).squeeze(-2)
predicted_function_covar = torch.matmul(trans_obs.transpose(-1, -2),
torch.matmul(filtering_state.covariance_matrix, trans_obs)) + \
torch.matmul(self.obs_matrix.t(), torch.matmul(trans_dist.covariance_matrix, self.obs_matrix))
if include_observation_noise:
predicted_function_covar = predicted_function_covar + self._get_obs_noise_scale(
).pow(2.0)
return predicted_mean, predicted_function_covar
def forecast(self, targets, dts):
"""
:param torch.Tensor targets: A 2-dimensional tensor of real-valued targets
of shape `(T, obs_dim)`, where `T` is the length of the time series and `obs_dim`
is the dimension of the real-valued targets at each time step. These
represent the training data that are conditioned on for the purpose of making
forecasts.
:param torch.Tensor dts: A 1-dimensional tensor of times to forecast into the future,
with zero corresponding to the time of the final target `targets[-1]`.
:returns torch.distributions.MultivariateNormal: Returns a predictive MultivariateNormal
distribution with batch shape `(S,)` and event shape `(obs_dim,)`, where `S` is the size of `dts`.
"""
filtering_state = self._filter(targets)
predicted_mean, predicted_covar = self._forecast(dts, filtering_state)
return MultivariateNormal(predicted_mean, predicted_covar)
class DependentMaternGP(TimeSeriesModel):
"""
A time series model in which each output dimension is modeled as a univariate Gaussian Process
with a Matern kernel. The different output dimensions become correlated because the Gaussian
Processes are driven by a correlated Wiener process; see reference [1] for details.
If, in addition, `linearly_coupled` is True, additional correlation is achieved through
linear mixing as in :class:`LinearlyCoupledMaternGP`. The targets are assumed to be evenly
spaced in time. Training and inference are logarithmic in the length of the time series T.
:param float nu: The order of the Matern kernel; must be 1.5.
:param float dt: The time spacing between neighboring observations of the time series.
:param int obs_dim: The dimension of the targets at each time step.
:param bool linearly_coupled: Whether to linearly mix the various gaussian processes in the likelihood.
Defaults to False.
:param torch.Tensor length_scale_init: optional initial values for the kernel length scale
given as a ``obs_dim``-dimensional tensor
:param torch.Tensor obs_noise_scale_init: optional initial values for the observation noise scale
given as a ``obs_dim``-dimensional tensor
References
[1] "Dependent Matern Processes for Multivariate Time Series," Alexander Vandenberg-Rodes, Babak Shahbaba.
"""
def __init__(self, nu=1.5, dt=1.0, obs_dim=1, linearly_coupled=False,
length_scale_init=None, obs_noise_scale_init=None):
if nu != 1.5:
raise NotImplementedError("The only supported value of nu is 1.5")
self.dt = dt
self.obs_dim = obs_dim
if obs_noise_scale_init is None:
obs_noise_scale_init = 0.2 * torch.ones(obs_dim)
assert obs_noise_scale_init.shape == (obs_dim,)
super().__init__()
self.kernel = MaternKernel(nu=nu, num_gps=obs_dim,
length_scale_init=length_scale_init)
self.full_state_dim = self.kernel.state_dim * obs_dim
# we demote self.kernel.kernel_scale from being a nn.Parameter
# since the relevant scales are now encoded in the wiener noise matrix
del self.kernel.kernel_scale
self.kernel.register_buffer("kernel_scale", torch.ones(obs_dim))
self.obs_noise_scale = PyroParam(obs_noise_scale_init,
constraint=constraints.positive)
self.wiener_noise_tril = PyroParam(torch.eye(obs_dim) +
0.03 * torch.randn(obs_dim, obs_dim).tril(-1),
constraint=constraints.lower_cholesky)
if linearly_coupled:
self.obs_matrix = nn.Parameter(0.3 * torch.randn(self.obs_dim, self.obs_dim))
else:
obs_matrix = torch.zeros(self.full_state_dim, obs_dim)
for i in range(obs_dim):
obs_matrix[self.kernel.state_dim * i, i] = 1.0
self.register_buffer("obs_matrix", obs_matrix)
def _get_obs_matrix(self):
if self.obs_matrix.size(0) == self.obs_dim:
# (num_gps, obs_dim) => (state_dim * num_gps, obs_dim)
selector = [1.0] + [0.0] * (self.kernel.state_dim - 1)
return self.obs_matrix.repeat_interleave(self.kernel.state_dim, dim=0) * \
self.obs_matrix.new_tensor(selector).repeat(self.obs_dim).unsqueeze(-1)
else:
return self.obs_matrix
def _get_init_dist(self, stationary_covariance):
return torch.distributions.MultivariateNormal(self.obs_matrix.new_zeros(self.full_state_dim),
stationary_covariance)
def _get_obs_dist(self):
return dist.Normal(self.obs_matrix.new_zeros(self.obs_dim),
self.obs_noise_scale).to_event(1)
def _get_wiener_cov(self):
chol = self.wiener_noise_tril
wiener_cov = torch.mm(chol, chol.t()).reshape(self.obs_dim, 1, self.obs_dim, 1)
wiener_cov = wiener_cov * wiener_cov.new_ones(self.kernel.state_dim, 1, self.kernel.state_dim)
return wiener_cov.reshape(self.full_state_dim, self.full_state_dim)
def _stationary_covariance(self):
rho_j = math.sqrt(3.0) / self.kernel.length_scale.unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1)
rho_i = rho_j.unsqueeze(-1)
block = 2.0 * self.kernel.mask00 + \
(rho_i - rho_j) * (self.kernel.mask01 - self.kernel.mask10) + \
(2.0 * rho_i * rho_j) * self.kernel.mask11
block = block / (rho_i + rho_j).pow(3.0)
block = block.transpose(-2, -3).reshape(self.full_state_dim, self.full_state_dim)
return self._get_wiener_cov() * block
def _get_trans_dist(self, trans_matrix, stationary_covariance):
covar = stationary_covariance - torch.matmul(trans_matrix.transpose(-1, -2),
torch.matmul(stationary_covariance, trans_matrix))
return MultivariateNormal(covar.new_zeros(self.full_state_dim), covar)
def _trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(self, dts):
stationary_covariance = self._stationary_covariance()
trans_matrix = self.kernel.transition_matrix(dt=dts)
trans_matrix = block_diag_embed(trans_matrix)
trans_dist = self._get_trans_dist(trans_matrix, stationary_covariance)
return trans_matrix, trans_dist, stationary_covariance
def get_dist(self, duration=None):
"""
Get the :class:`~pyro.distributions.GaussianHMM` distribution that corresponds to a :class:`DependentMaternGP`
:param int duration: Optional size of the time axis ``event_shape[0]``.
This is required when sampling from homogeneous HMMs whose parameters
are not expanded along the time axis.
"""
trans_matrix, trans_dist, stat_covar = self._trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(self.dt)
return dist.GaussianHMM(self._get_init_dist(stat_covar), trans_matrix,
trans_dist, self._get_obs_matrix(), self._get_obs_dist(), duration=duration)
@pyro_method
def log_prob(self, targets):
"""
:param torch.Tensor targets: A 2-dimensional tensor of real-valued targets
of shape ``(T, obs_dim)``, where ``T`` is the length of the time series and ``obs_dim``
is the dimension of the real-valued ``targets`` at each time step
:returns torch.Tensor: A (scalar) log probability
"""
assert targets.dim() == 2 and targets.size(-1) == self.obs_dim
return self.get_dist().log_prob(targets)
@torch.no_grad()
def _filter(self, targets):
"""
Return the filtering state for the associated state space model.
"""
assert targets.dim() == 2 and targets.size(-1) == self.obs_dim
return self.get_dist().filter(targets)
@torch.no_grad()
def _forecast(self, dts, filtering_state, include_observation_noise=True):
"""
Internal helper for forecasting.
"""
assert dts.dim() == 1
dts = dts.unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1).unsqueeze(-1)
trans_matrix, trans_dist, _ = self._trans_matrix_distribution_stat_covar(dts)
obs_matrix = self._get_obs_matrix()
trans_obs = torch.matmul(trans_matrix, obs_matrix)
predicted_mean = torch.matmul(filtering_state.loc.unsqueeze(-2), trans_obs).squeeze(-2)
predicted_function_covar = torch.matmul(trans_obs.transpose(-1, -2),
torch.matmul(filtering_state.covariance_matrix, trans_obs)) + \
torch.matmul(obs_matrix.t(), torch.matmul(trans_dist.covariance_matrix, obs_matrix))
if include_observation_noise:
predicted_function_covar = predicted_function_covar + self.obs_noise_scale.pow(2.0)
return predicted_mean, predicted_function_covar
@pyro_method
def forecast(self, targets, dts):
"""
:param torch.Tensor targets: A 2-dimensional tensor of real-valued targets
of shape ``(T, obs_dim)``, where ``T`` is the length of the time series and ``obs_dim``
is the dimension of the real-valued targets at each time step. These
represent the training data that are conditioned on for the purpose of making
forecasts.
:param torch.Tensor dts: A 1-dimensional tensor of times to forecast into the future,
with zero corresponding to the time of the final target ``targets[-1]``.
:returns torch.distributions.MultivariateNormal: Returns a predictive MultivariateNormal
distribution with batch shape ``(S,)`` and event shape ``(obs_dim,)``, where ``S`` is the size of ``dts``.
"""
filtering_state = self._filter(targets)
predicted_mean, predicted_covar = self._forecast(dts, filtering_state)
return MultivariateNormal(predicted_mean, predicted_covar)