def test_ContinuousMarkovChain():
T1 = Matrix([[S(-2), S(2), S.Zero],
[S.Zero, S.NegativeOne, S.One],
[Rational(3, 2), Rational(3, 2), S(-3)]])
C1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T1)
assert C1.limiting_distribution() == ImmutableMatrix([[Rational(3, 19), Rational(12, 19), Rational(4, 19)]])
T2 = Matrix([[-S.One, S.One, S.Zero], [S.One, -S.One, S.Zero], [S.Zero, S.One, -S.One]])
C2 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T2)
A, t = C2.generator_matrix, symbols('t', positive=True)
assert C2.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == Matrix([[S.Half + exp(-2*t)/2, S.Half - exp(-2*t)/2, 0],
[S.Half - exp(-2*t)/2, S.Half + exp(-2*t)/2, 0],
[S.Half - exp(-t) + exp(-2*t)/2, S.Half - exp(-2*t)/2, exp(-t)]])
with ignore_warnings(UserWarning): ### TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1), evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == exp(-2)/2 + S.Half
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 1),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), S.Half)) == (Rational(1, 4) - exp(-2)/4)*(exp(-2)/2 + S.Half)
assert P(Not(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)) |
(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), Rational(1, 4)) & Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), Rational(1, 4))) is S.One
assert E(C2(Rational(3, 2)), Eq(C2(0), 2)) == -exp(-3)/2 + 2*exp(Rational(-3, 2)) + S.Half
assert variance(C2(Rational(3, 2)), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == ((S.Half - exp(-3)/2)**2*(exp(-3)/2 + S.Half)
+ (Rational(-1, 2) - exp(-3)/2)**2*(S.Half - exp(-3)/2))
raises(KeyError, lambda: P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), S.Half)))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(5), 1)), S.Half)) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 0))
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('G', 3, 3)
CS1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], TS1)
A = CS1.generator_matrix
assert CS1.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == exp(t*A)
C3 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [Symbol('0'), Symbol('1'), Symbol('2')], T2)
assert P(Eq(C3(1), 1), Eq(C3(0), 1)) == exp(-2)/2 + S.Half
assert P(Eq(C3(1), Symbol('1')), Eq(C3(0), Symbol('1'))) == exp(-2)/2 + S.Half
def test_ContinuousMarkovChain():
T1 = Matrix([[S(-2), S(2), S(0)],
[S(0), S(-1), S(1)],
[S(3)/2, S(3)/2, S(-3)]])
C1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T1)
assert C1.limiting_distribution() == ImmutableMatrix([[S(3)/19, S(12)/19, S(4)/19]])
T2 = Matrix([[-S(1), S(1), S(0)], [S(1), -S(1), S(0)], [S(0), S(1), -S(1)]])
C2 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T2)
A, t = C2.generator_matrix, symbols('t', positive=True)
assert C2.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == Matrix([[S(1)/2 + exp(-2*t)/2, S(1)/2 - exp(-2*t)/2, 0],
[S(1)/2 - exp(-2*t)/2, S(1)/2 + exp(-2*t)/2, 0],
[S(1)/2 - exp(-t) + exp(-2*t)/2, S(1)/2 - exp(-2*t)/2, exp(-t)]])
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1), evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 1))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == exp(-2)/2 + S(1)/2
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 1),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), S(1)/2)) == (S(1)/4 - exp(-2)/4)*(exp(-2)/2 + S(1)/2)
assert P(Not(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)) |
(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), S(1)/4) & Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), S(1)/4)) == S(1)
assert E(C2(S(3)/2), Eq(C2(0), 2)) == -exp(-3)/2 + 2*exp(-S(3)/2) + S(1)/2
assert variance(C2(S(3)/2), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == ((S(1)/2 - exp(-3)/2)**2*(exp(-3)/2 + S(1)/2)
+ (-S(1)/2 - exp(-3)/2)**2*(S(1)/2 - exp(-3)/2))
raises(KeyError, lambda: P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), S(1)/2)))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(5), 1)), S(1)/2)) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 0))
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('G', 3, 3)
CS1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], TS1)
A = CS1.generator_matrix
assert CS1.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == exp(t*A)
def test_literal_probability():
X = Normal('X', 2, 3)
Y = Normal('Y', 3, 4)
Z = Poisson('Z', 4)
W = Poisson('W', 3)
x, y, w, z = symbols('x, y, w, z')
assert Probability(X > 0).doit() == probability(X > 0)
assert Probability(X > x).doit() == probability(X > x)
assert Expectation(X).doit() == expectation(X)
assert Expectation(X**2).doit() == expectation(X**2)
assert Expectation(x*X) == x*Expectation(X)
assert Expectation(2*X + 3*Y + z*X*Y) == 2*Expectation(X) + 3*Expectation(Y) + z*Expectation(X*Y)
assert Expectation(2*X + 3*Y + z*X*Y, evaluate=False).args == (2*X + 3*Y + z*X*Y,)
assert Expectation(sin(X)) == Expectation(sin(X), evaluate=False)
assert Expectation(2*x*sin(X)*Y + y*X**2 + z*X*Y) == 2*x*Expectation(sin(X)*Y) + y*Expectation(X**2) + z*Expectation(X*Y)
assert Variance(w) == 0
assert Variance(X).doit() == variance(X)
assert Variance(X + z) == Variance(X)
assert Variance(X*Y).args == (Mul(X, Y),)
assert type(Variance(X*Y)) == Variance
assert Variance(z*X) == z**2*Variance(X)
assert Variance(X + Y) == Variance(X) + Variance(Y) + 2*Covariance(X, Y)
assert Variance(X + Y + Z + W) == (Variance(X) + Variance(Y) + Variance(Z) + Variance(W) +
2 * Covariance(X, Y) + 2 * Covariance(X, Z) + 2 * Covariance(X, W) +
2 * Covariance(Y, Z) + 2 * Covariance(Y, W) + 2 * Covariance(W, Z))
assert Variance(X**2).doit() == variance(X**2)
assert Variance(X**2, evaluate=False) == Variance(X**2)
assert Variance(x*X**2) == x**2*Variance(X**2)
assert Variance(sin(X)).args == (sin(X),)
assert Variance(sin(X), evaluate=False) == Variance(sin(X))
assert Variance(x*sin(X)) == x**2*Variance(sin(X))
assert Covariance(w, z) == 0
assert Covariance(X, w) == 0
assert Covariance(w, X) == 0
assert Covariance(X, Y).args == (X, Y)
assert type(Covariance(X, Y)) == Covariance
assert Covariance(z*X + 3, Y) == z*Covariance(X, Y)
assert Covariance(X, X) == Variance(X)
assert Covariance(z*X + 3, w*Y + 4) == w*z*Covariance(X,Y)
assert Covariance(X, Y) == Covariance(Y, X)
assert Covariance(X + Y, Z + W) == Covariance(W, X) + Covariance(W, Y) + Covariance(X, Z) + Covariance(Y, Z)
assert Covariance(x*X + y*Y, z*Z + w*W) == (x*w*Covariance(W, X) + w*y*Covariance(W, Y) +
x*z*Covariance(X, Z) + y*z*Covariance(Y, Z))
assert Covariance(x*X**2 + y*sin(Y), z*Y*Z**2 + w*W) == (w*x*Covariance(W, X**2) + w*y*Covariance(sin(Y), W) +
x*z*Covariance(Y*Z**2, X**2) + y*z*Covariance(Y*Z**2, sin(Y)))
assert Covariance(X, X**2) == Covariance(X, X**2, evaluate=False)
assert Covariance(X, sin(X)) == Covariance(sin(X), X, evaluate=False)
assert Covariance(X**2, sin(X)*Y) == Covariance(sin(X)*Y, X**2, evaluate=False)
def test_ContinuousMarkovChain():
T1 = Matrix([
[S(-2), S(2), S.Zero],
[S.Zero, S.NegativeOne, S.One],
[Rational(3, 2), Rational(3, 2), S(-3)],
])
C1 = ContinuousMarkovChain("C", [0, 1, 2], T1)
assert C1.limiting_distribution() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 19), Rational(12, 19),
Rational(4, 19)]])
T2 = Matrix([[-S.One, S.One, S.Zero], [S.One, -S.One, S.Zero],
[S.Zero, S.One, -S.One]])
C2 = ContinuousMarkovChain("C", [0, 1, 2], T2)
A, t = C2.generator_matrix, symbols("t", positive=True)
assert C2.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == Matrix([
[S.Half + exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2, 0],
[S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half + exp(-2 * t) / 2, 0],
[
S.Half - exp(-t) + exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2,
exp(-t)
],
])
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1),
evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 1))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half
assert P(
Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 1),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)),
S.Half)) == (Rational(1, 4) - exp(-2) / 4) * (exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half)
assert (P(
Not(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2))
| (Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), Rational(1, 4)),
) is S.One)
assert (E(C2(Rational(3, 2)),
Eq(C2(0),
2)) == -exp(-3) / 2 + 2 * exp(Rational(-3, 2)) + S.Half)
assert variance(C2(Rational(3, 2)), Eq(
C2(0),
1)) == ((S.Half - exp(-3) / 2)**2 * (exp(-3) / 2 + S.Half) +
(Rational(-1, 2) - exp(-3) / 2)**2 * (S.Half - exp(-3) / 2))
raises(KeyError, lambda: P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), S.Half)))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(5), 1)),
S.Half)) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 0))
TS1 = MatrixSymbol("G", 3, 3)
CS1 = ContinuousMarkovChain("C", [0, 1, 2], TS1)
A = CS1.generator_matrix
assert CS1.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == exp(t * A)
def test_issue_12237():
X = Normal('X', 0, 1)
Y = Normal('Y', 0, 1)
U = P(X > 0, X)
V = P(Y < 0, X)
assert U == Probability(X > 0, X)
assert str(V) == '1/2'
def test_WienerProcess():
X = WienerProcess("X")
assert X.state_space == S.Reals
assert X.index_set == Interval(0, oo)
t, d, x, y = symbols('t d x y', positive=True)
assert isinstance(X(t), RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert X.distribution(t) == NormalDistribution(0, sqrt(t))
with warns_deprecated_sympy():
X.distribution(X(t))
raises(ValueError, lambda: PoissonProcess("X", -1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X[t])
raises(IndexError, lambda: X(-2))
assert X.joint_distribution(X(2), X(3)) == JointDistributionHandmade(
Lambda((X(2), X(3)),
sqrt(6) * exp(-X(2)**2 / 4) * exp(-X(3)**2 / 6) / (12 * pi)))
assert X.joint_distribution(4, 6) == JointDistributionHandmade(
Lambda((X(4), X(6)),
sqrt(6) * exp(-X(4)**2 / 8) * exp(-X(6)**2 / 12) / (24 * pi)))
assert P(X(t) < 3).simplify() == erf(3 * sqrt(2) /
(2 * sqrt(t))) / 2 + S(1) / 2
assert P(X(t) > 2, Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(3, 7))).simplify() == S(1)/2 -\
erf(sqrt(2)/2)/2
# Equivalent to P(X(1)>1)**4
assert P((X(t) > 4) & (X(d) > 3) & (X(x) > 2) & (X(y) > 1),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1)) & Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(1, 2))
& Contains(x, Interval.Lopen(2, 3)) & Contains(y, Interval.Lopen(3, 4))).simplify() ==\
(1 - erf(sqrt(2)/2))*(1 - erf(sqrt(2)))*(1 - erf(3*sqrt(2)/2))*(1 - erf(2*sqrt(2)))/16
# Contains an overlapping interval so, return Probability
assert P((X(t) < 2) & (X(d) > 3),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 2))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(2, 4))) == Probability(
(X(d) > 3) & (X(t) < 2),
Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(2, 4))
& Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 2)))
assert str(P(Not((X(t) < 5) & (X(d) > 3)), Contains(t, Interval.Ropen(2, 4)) &
Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(7, 8))).simplify()) == \
'-(1 - erf(3*sqrt(2)/2))*(2 - erfc(5/2))/4 + 1'
# Distribution has mean 0 at each timestamp
assert E(X(t)) == 0
assert E(
x * (X(t) + X(d)) * (X(t)**2 + X(d)**2),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(1, 2))) == Expectation(
x * (X(d) + X(t)) * (X(d)**2 + X(t)**2),
Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(1, 2))
& Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1)))
assert E(X(t) + x * E(X(3))) == 0
#test issue 20078
assert (2 * X(t) + 3 * X(t)).simplify() == 5 * X(t)
assert (2 * X(t) - 3 * X(t)).simplify() == -X(t)
assert (2 * (0.25 * X(t))).simplify() == 0.5 * X(t)
assert (2 * X(t) * 0.25 * X(t)).simplify() == 0.5 * X(t)**2
assert (X(t)**2 + X(t)**3).simplify() == (X(t) + 1) * X(t)**2
def probability(condition,
given_condition=None,
numsamples=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Probability that a condition is true, optionally given a second condition
Parameters
==========
condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
The condition of which you want to compute the probability
given_condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
A conditional expression. P(X > 1, X > 0) is expectation of X > 1
given X > 0
numsamples : int
Enables sampling and approximates the probability with this many samples
evaluate : Bool (defaults to True)
In case of continuous systems return unevaluated integral
Examples
========
>>> from sympy.stats import P, Die
>>> from sympy import Eq
>>> X, Y = Die('X', 6), Die('Y', 6)
>>> P(X > 3)
1/2
>>> P(Eq(X, 5), X > 2) # Probability that X == 5 given that X > 2
1/4
>>> P(X > Y)
5/12
"""
kwargs['numsamples'] = numsamples
from sympy.stats.symbolic_probability import Probability
if evaluate:
return Probability(condition, given_condition).doit(**kwargs)
### TODO: Remove the user warnings in the future releases
message = (
"Since version 1.7, using `evaluate=False` returns `Probability` "
"object. If you want unevaluated Integral/Sum use "
"`P(condition, given_condition, evaluate=False).rewrite(Integral)`")
warnings.warn(filldedent(message))
return Probability(condition, given_condition)
def test_issue_12237():
X = Normal('X', 0, 1)
Y = Normal('Y', 0, 1)
U = P(X > 0, X)
V = P(Y < 0, X)
W = P(X + Y > 0, X)
assert W == Probability(X + Y > 0, X)
assert U == BernoulliDistribution(S(1) / 2, S(0), S(1))
assert str(V) == '1/2'
def probability(self,
condition,
given_condition=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Computes probability.
Parameters
==========
condition: Relational
Condition for which probability has to be computed. Must
contain a RandomIndexedSymbol of the process.
given_condition: Relational/And
The given conditions under which computations should be done.
Returns
=======
Probability of the condition.
"""
new_condition, new_givencondition = self._rvindexed_subs(
condition, given_condition)
if isinstance(new_givencondition, RandomSymbol):
condrv = random_symbols(new_condition)
if len(condrv) == 1 and condrv[0] == new_givencondition:
return BernoulliDistribution(self.probability(new_condition),
0, 1)
if any([dependent(rv, new_givencondition) for rv in condrv]):
return Probability(new_condition, new_givencondition)
else:
return self.probability(new_condition)
if new_givencondition is not None and \
not isinstance(new_givencondition, (Relational, Boolean)):
raise ValueError(
"%s is not a relational or combination of relationals" %
(new_givencondition))
if new_givencondition == False:
return S.Zero
if new_condition == True:
return S.One
if new_condition == False:
return S.Zero
if not isinstance(new_condition, (Relational, Boolean)):
raise ValueError(
"%s is not a relational or combination of relationals" %
(new_condition))
if new_givencondition is not None: # If there is a condition
# Recompute on new conditional expr
return self.probability(
given(new_condition, new_givencondition, **kwargs), **kwargs)
return pspace(new_condition).probability(new_condition, **kwargs)
def probability(self, condition):
_domain = self.restricted_domain(condition)
if condition == False or _domain is S.EmptySet:
return S.Zero
if condition == True or _domain == self.set:
return S.One
try:
return self.eval_prob(_domain)
except NotImplementedError:
return Probability(condition)
def probability(condition,
given_condition=None,
numsamples=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Probability that a condition is true, optionally given a second condition
Parameters
==========
condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
The condition of which you want to compute the probability
given_condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
A conditional expression. P(X > 1, X > 0) is expectation of X > 1
given X > 0
numsamples : int
Enables sampling and approximates the probability with this many samples
evaluate : Bool (defaults to True)
In case of continuous systems return unevaluated integral
Examples
========
>>> from sympy.stats import P, Die
>>> from sympy import Eq
>>> X, Y = Die('X', 6), Die('Y', 6)
>>> P(X > 3)
1/2
>>> P(Eq(X, 5), X > 2) # Probability that X == 5 given that X > 2
1/4
>>> P(X > Y)
5/12
"""
kwargs['numsamples'] = numsamples
from sympy.stats.symbolic_probability import Probability
if evaluate:
return Probability(condition, given_condition).doit(**kwargs)
return Probability(condition, given_condition).rewrite(
Integral) # will return Sum in case of discrete RV
def probability(self, condition):
complement = isinstance(condition, Ne)
if complement:
condition = Eq(condition.args[0], condition.args[1])
_domain = self.where(condition).set
if condition == False or _domain is S.EmptySet:
return S.Zero
if condition == True or _domain == self.set:
return S.One
prob = self.eval_prob(_domain)
if prob == None:
prob = Probability(condition)
return prob if not complement else S.One - prob
def probability(self, condition):
complement = isinstance(condition, Ne)
if complement:
condition = Eq(condition.args[0], condition.args[1])
_domain = self.restricted_domain(condition)
if condition == False or _domain is S.EmptySet:
return S.Zero
if condition == True or _domain == self.set:
return S.One
try:
prob = self.eval_prob(_domain)
return prob if not complement else S.One - prob
except NotImplementedError:
return Probability(condition)
def probability(self, condition):
complement = isinstance(condition, Ne)
if complement:
condition = Eq(condition.args[0], condition.args[1])
try:
_domain = self.where(condition).set
if condition == False or _domain is S.EmptySet:
return S.Zero
if condition == True or _domain == self.domain.set:
return S.One
prob = self.eval_prob(_domain)
except NotImplementedError:
from sympy.stats.rv import density
expr = condition.lhs - condition.rhs
dens = density(expr)
if not isinstance(dens, DiscreteDistribution):
dens = DiscreteDistributionHandmade(dens)
z = Dummy('z', real = True)
space = SingleDiscretePSpace(z, dens)
prob = space.probability(condition.__class__(space.value, 0))
if (prob == None):
prob = Probability(condition)
return prob if not complement else S.One - prob
def test_DiscreteMarkovChain():
# pass only the name
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X")
assert isinstance(X.state_space, Range)
assert X.index_set == S.Naturals0
assert isinstance(X.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
t = symbols('t', positive=True, integer=True)
assert isinstance(X[t], RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain(1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X(t))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X.communication_classes())
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X.canonical_form())
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X.decompose())
nz = Symbol('n', integer=True)
TZ = MatrixSymbol('M', nz, nz)
SZ = Range(nz)
YZ = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', SZ, TZ)
assert P(Eq(YZ[2], 1), Eq(YZ[1], 0)) == TZ[0, 1]
raises(ValueError, lambda: sample_stochastic_process(t))
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(X)))
# pass name and state_space
# any hashable object should be a valid state
# states should be valid as a tuple/set/list/Tuple/Range
sym, rainy, cloudy, sunny = symbols('a Rainy Cloudy Sunny', real=True)
state_spaces = [(1, 2, 3), [Str('Hello'), sym, DiscreteMarkovChain],
Tuple(S(1), exp(sym), Str('World'), sympify=False),
Range(-1, 5, 2), [rainy, cloudy, sunny]]
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", state_space) for state_space in state_spaces
]
for i, Y in enumerate(chains):
assert isinstance(Y.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
assert Y.state_space == state_spaces[i] or Y.state_space == FiniteSet(
*state_spaces[i])
assert Y.number_of_states == 3
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): # TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert P(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2),
evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2))
assert E(Y[0]) == Expectation(Y[0])
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(Y)))
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", dict((1, 1))))
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", Range(1, t, 2))
assert Y.number_of_states == ceiling((t - 1) / 2)
# pass name and transition_probabilities
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[0, 1], [1, 0]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y",
trans_probs=Matrix([[pi, 1 - pi], [sym, 1 - sym]]))
]
for Z in chains:
assert Z.number_of_states == Z.transition_probabilities.shape[0]
assert isinstance(Z.transition_probabilities, ImmutableMatrix)
# pass name, state_space and transition_probabilities
T = Matrix([[0.5, 0.2, 0.3], [0.2, 0.5, 0.3], [0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
TS = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
YS = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", ['One', 'Two', 3], TS)
assert Y.joint_distribution(1, Y[2],
3) == JointDistribution(Y[1], Y[2], Y[3])
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y.joint_distribution(Y[1].symbol, Y[2].symbol))
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2), Eq(Y[1], 1)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert (P(Eq(YS[3], 2), Eq(YS[1], 1)) -
(TS[0, 2] * TS[1, 0] + TS[1, 1] * TS[1, 2] +
TS[1, 2] * TS[2, 2])).simplify() == 0
assert P(Eq(YS[1], 1), Eq(YS[2], 2)) == Probability(Eq(YS[1], 1))
assert P(Eq(YS[3], 3), Eq(
YS[1],
1)) == TS[0, 2] * TS[1, 0] + TS[1, 1] * TS[1, 2] + TS[1, 2] * TS[2, 2]
TO = Matrix([[0.25, 0.75, 0], [0, 0.25, 0.75], [0.75, 0, 0.25]])
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2),
Eq(Y[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO)).round(3) == Float(
0.375, 3)
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): ### TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert E(Y[3], evaluate=False) == Expectation(Y[3])
assert E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 1)).round(2) == Float(1.1, 3)
TSO = MatrixSymbol('T', 4, 4)
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2),
Eq(YS[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(YS, TSO))))
raises(TypeError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], symbols('M')))
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 4)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 6)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[2], Eq(Y[3], 1)))
# extended tests for probability queries
TO1 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
assert P(
And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == Rational(1, 16)
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)), TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == \
Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))/4
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Y[1], 1)) == 0.1 * Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))
# testing properties of Markov chain
TO2 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
TO3 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
Y2 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO2)
Y3 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO3)
assert Y3.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[176, 81, -132], [36, 141, -52], [-44, -39, 208]]) / 125
assert Y2.is_absorbing_chain() == True
assert Y3.is_absorbing_chain() == False
assert Y2.canonical_form() == ([0, 1, 2], TO2)
assert Y3.canonical_form() == ([0, 1, 2], TO3)
assert Y2.decompose() == ([0, 1,
2], TO2[0:1, 0:1], TO2[1:3, 0:1], TO2[1:3, 1:3])
assert Y3.decompose() == ([0, 1, 2], TO3, Matrix(0, 3,
[]), Matrix(0, 0, []))
TO4 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 5),
Rational(2, 5),
Rational(2, 5)], [Rational(1, 10), S.Half,
Rational(2, 5)],
[Rational(3, 5),
Rational(3, 10),
Rational(1, 10)]])
Y4 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO4)
w = ImmutableMatrix([[Rational(11, 39),
Rational(16, 39),
Rational(4, 13)]])
assert Y4.limiting_distribution == w
assert Y4.is_regular() == True
assert Y4.is_ergodic() == True
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y5 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TS1)
assert Y5.limiting_distribution(w, TO4).doit() == True
assert Y5.stationary_distribution(condition_set=True).subs(
TS1, TO4).contains(w).doit() == S.true
TO6 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0, 0, 0], [S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0, 0],
[0, S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0], [0, 0, S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1]])
Y6 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO6)
assert Y6.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 2), S.One, S.Half], [S.One, S(2), S.One],
[S.Half, S.One, Rational(3, 2)]])
assert Y6.absorbing_probabilities() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 4), Rational(1, 4)], [S.Half, S.Half],
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)]])
TO7 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 2),
Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 4)], [Rational(1, 2), 0,
Rational(1, 2)],
[Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 2)]])
Y7 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO7)
assert Y7.is_absorbing_chain() == False
assert Y7.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(86, 75),
Rational(1, 25),
Rational(-14, 75)],
[Rational(2, 25), Rational(21, 25),
Rational(2, 25)],
[Rational(-14, 75),
Rational(1, 25),
Rational(86, 75)]])
# test for zero-sized matrix functionality
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=Matrix([[]]))
assert X.number_of_states == 0
assert X.stationary_distribution() == Matrix([[]])
assert X.communication_classes() == []
assert X.canonical_form() == ([], Matrix([[]]))
assert X.decompose() == ([], Matrix([[]]), Matrix([[]]), Matrix([[]]))
assert X.is_regular() == False
assert X.is_ergodic() == False
# test communication_class
# see https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HbxLlwwn2b3U8Lj7eb_ASIUb5vYaNIjg?usp=sharing
# tutorial 2.pdf
TO7 = Matrix([[0, 5, 5, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 10, 0], [5, 0, 5, 0, 0],
[0, 10, 0, 0, 0], [0, 3, 0, 3, 4]]) / 10
Y7 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO7)
tuples = Y7.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([1, 3], [0, 2], [4])
assert recurrence == (True, False, False)
assert periods == (2, 1, 1)
TO8 = Matrix([[0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0], [5, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0], [0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 6],
[10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0]
]) / 10
Y8 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO8)
tuples = Y8.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([0, 3], [1, 2, 5, 4])
assert recurrence == (True, False)
assert periods == (2, 2)
TO9 = Matrix(
[[2, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 0], [0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3], [0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 6, 1, 0, 0],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[4, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0], [2, 0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0],
[3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 2], [0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3]]) / 10
Y9 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO9)
tuples = Y9.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([0, 3, 6, 7], [1], [2, 8, 9], [5], [4])
assert recurrence == (True, True, False, True, False)
assert periods == (1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
# test canonical form
# see https://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/Chapter11.pdf
# example 11.13
T = Matrix([[1, 0, 0, 0, 0], [S(1) / 2, 0, S(1) / 2, 0, 0],
[0, S(1) / 2, 0, S(1) / 2, 0], [0, 0,
S(1) / 2, 0,
S(1) / 2], [0, 0, 0, 0,
S(1)]])
DW = DiscreteMarkovChain('DW', [0, 1, 2, 3, 4], T)
states, A, B, C = DW.decompose()
assert states == [0, 4, 1, 2, 3]
assert A == Matrix([[1, 0], [0, 1]])
assert B == Matrix([[S(1) / 2, 0], [0, 0], [0, S(1) / 2]])
assert C == Matrix([[0, S(1) / 2, 0], [S(1) / 2, 0, S(1) / 2],
[0, S(1) / 2, 0]])
states, new_matrix = DW.canonical_form()
assert states == [0, 4, 1, 2, 3]
assert new_matrix == Matrix([[1, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 1, 0, 0, 0],
[S(1) / 2, 0, 0, S(1) / 2, 0],
[0, 0, S(1) / 2, 0,
S(1) / 2], [0, S(1) / 2, 0,
S(1) / 2, 0]])
# test regular and ergodic
# https://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/Chapter11.pdf
T = Matrix([[0, 4, 0, 0, 0], [1, 0, 3, 0, 0], [0, 2, 0, 2, 0],
[0, 0, 3, 0, 1], [0, 0, 0, 4, 0]]) / 4
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert not X.is_regular()
assert X.is_ergodic()
T = Matrix([[0, 1], [1, 0]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert not X.is_regular()
assert X.is_ergodic()
# http://www.math.wisc.edu/~valko/courses/331/MC2.pdf
T = Matrix([[2, 1, 1], [2, 0, 2], [1, 1, 2]]) / 4
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert X.is_regular()
assert X.is_ergodic()
# https://docs.ufpr.br/~lucambio/CE222/1S2014/Kemeny-Snell1976.pdf
T = Matrix([[1, 1], [1, 1]]) / 2
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert X.is_regular()
assert X.is_ergodic()
# test is_absorbing_chain
T = Matrix([[0, 1, 0], [1, 0, 0], [0, 0, 1]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert not X.is_absorbing_chain()
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absorbing_Markov_chain
T = Matrix([[1, 1, 0, 0], [0, 1, 1, 0], [1, 0, 0, 1], [0, 0, 0, 2]]) / 2
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert X.is_absorbing_chain()
T = Matrix([[2, 0, 0, 0, 0], [1, 0, 1, 0, 0], [0, 1, 0, 1, 0],
[0, 0, 1, 0, 1], [0, 0, 0, 0, 2]]) / 2
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=T)
assert X.is_absorbing_chain()
# test custom state space
Y10 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', [1, 2, 3], TO2)
tuples = Y10.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([1], [2, 3])
assert recurrence == (True, False)
assert periods == (1, 1)
assert Y10.canonical_form() == ([1, 2, 3], TO2)
assert Y10.decompose() == ([1, 2, 3], TO2[0:1, 0:1], TO2[1:3,
0:1], TO2[1:3,
1:3])
# testing miscellaneous queries
T = Matrix([[S.Half, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 4)], [Rational(1, 3), 0,
Rational(2, 3)], [S.Half, S.Half, 0]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
assert E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 3)
assert variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 9)
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1], T))
# testing miscellaneous queries with different state space
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', ['A', 'B', 'C'], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
a = X.state_space.args[0]
c = X.state_space.args[2]
assert (E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(a**2 / 3 + 2 * c**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
assert (variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(2 * (-a / 3 + c / 3)**2 / 3 +
(2 * a / 3 - 2 * c / 3)**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
#testing queries with multiple RandomIndexedSymbols
T = Matrix([[Rational(5, 10),
Rational(3, 10),
Rational(2, 10)],
[Rational(2, 10),
Rational(7, 10),
Rational(1, 10)],
[Rational(3, 10),
Rational(3, 10),
Rational(4, 10)]])
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(Eq(Y[7], Y[5]), Eq(Y[2], 0)).round(5) == Float(0.44428, 5)
assert P(Gt(Y[3], Y[1]), Eq(Y[0], 0)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert P(Le(Y[5], Y[10]), Eq(Y[4], 2)).round(6) == Float(0.583120, 6)
assert Float(P(Eq(Y[10], Y[5]), Eq(Y[4], 1)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Ne(Y[10], Y[5]), Eq(Y[4], 1)), 14)
assert Float(P(Gt(Y[8], Y[9]), Eq(Y[3], 2)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Le(Y[8], Y[9]), Eq(Y[3], 2)), 14)
assert Float(P(Lt(Y[1], Y[4]), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Ge(Y[1], Y[4]), Eq(Y[0], 0)), 14)
assert P(Eq(Y[5], Y[10]), Eq(Y[2], 1)) == P(Eq(Y[10], Y[5]), Eq(Y[2], 1))
assert P(Gt(Y[1], Y[2]), Eq(Y[0], 1)) == P(Lt(Y[2], Y[1]), Eq(Y[0], 1))
assert P(Ge(Y[7], Y[6]), Eq(Y[4], 1)) == P(Le(Y[6], Y[7]), Eq(Y[4], 1))
#test symbolic queries
a, b, c, d = symbols('a b c d')
T = Matrix([[Rational(1, 10),
Rational(4, 10),
Rational(5, 10)],
[Rational(3, 10),
Rational(4, 10),
Rational(3, 10)],
[Rational(7, 10),
Rational(2, 10),
Rational(1, 10)]])
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
query = P(Eq(Y[a], b), Eq(Y[c], d))
assert query.subs({
a: 10,
b: 2,
c: 5,
d: 1
}).evalf().round(4) == P(Eq(Y[10], 2), Eq(Y[5], 1)).round(4)
assert query.subs({
a: 15,
b: 0,
c: 10,
d: 1
}).evalf().round(4) == P(Eq(Y[15], 0), Eq(Y[10], 1)).round(4)
query_gt = P(Gt(Y[a], b), Eq(Y[c], d))
query_le = P(Le(Y[a], b), Eq(Y[c], d))
assert query_gt.subs({
a: 5,
b: 2,
c: 1,
d: 0
}).evalf() + query_le.subs({
a: 5,
b: 2,
c: 1,
d: 0
}).evalf() == 1
query_ge = P(Ge(Y[a], b), Eq(Y[c], d))
query_lt = P(Lt(Y[a], b), Eq(Y[c], d))
assert query_ge.subs({
a: 4,
b: 1,
c: 0,
d: 2
}).evalf() + query_lt.subs({
a: 4,
b: 1,
c: 0,
d: 2
}).evalf() == 1
#test issue 20078
assert (2 * Y[1] + 3 * Y[1]).simplify() == 5 * Y[1]
assert (2 * Y[1] - 3 * Y[1]).simplify() == -Y[1]
assert (2 * (0.25 * Y[1])).simplify() == 0.5 * Y[1]
assert ((2 * Y[1]) * (0.25 * Y[1])).simplify() == 0.5 * Y[1]**2
assert (Y[1]**2 + Y[1]**3).simplify() == (Y[1] + 1) * Y[1]**2
def probability(condition,
given_condition=None,
numsamples=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Probability that a condition is true, optionally given a second condition
Parameters
==========
condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
The condition of which you want to compute the probability
given_condition : Combination of Relationals containing RandomSymbols
A conditional expression. P(X > 1, X > 0) is expectation of X > 1
given X > 0
numsamples : int
Enables sampling and approximates the probability with this many samples
evaluate : Bool (defaults to True)
In case of continuous systems return unevaluated integral
Examples
========
>>> from sympy.stats import P, Die
>>> from sympy import Eq
>>> X, Y = Die('X', 6), Die('Y', 6)
>>> P(X > 3)
1/2
>>> P(Eq(X, 5), X > 2) # Probability that X == 5 given that X > 2
1/4
>>> P(X > Y)
5/12
"""
condition = sympify(condition)
given_condition = sympify(given_condition)
if condition.has(RandomIndexedSymbol):
return pspace(condition).probability(condition, given_condition,
evaluate, **kwargs)
if isinstance(given_condition, RandomSymbol):
condrv = random_symbols(condition)
if len(condrv) == 1 and condrv[0] == given_condition:
from sympy.stats.frv_types import BernoulliDistribution
return BernoulliDistribution(probability(condition), 0, 1)
if any([dependent(rv, given_condition) for rv in condrv]):
from sympy.stats.symbolic_probability import Probability
return Probability(condition, given_condition)
else:
return probability(condition)
if given_condition is not None and \
not isinstance(given_condition, (Relational, Boolean)):
raise ValueError(
"%s is not a relational or combination of relationals" %
(given_condition))
if given_condition == False:
return S.Zero
if not isinstance(condition, (Relational, Boolean)):
raise ValueError(
"%s is not a relational or combination of relationals" %
(condition))
if condition is S.true:
return S.One
if condition is S.false:
return S.Zero
if numsamples:
return sampling_P(condition,
given_condition,
numsamples=numsamples,
**kwargs)
if given_condition is not None: # If there is a condition
# Recompute on new conditional expr
return probability(given(condition, given_condition, **kwargs),
**kwargs)
# Otherwise pass work off to the ProbabilitySpace
result = pspace(condition).probability(condition, **kwargs)
if evaluate and hasattr(result, 'doit'):
return result.doit()
else:
return result
def probability(self,
condition,
given_condition=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Handles probability queries for Markov process.
Parameters
==========
condition: Relational
given_condition: Relational/And
Returns
=======
Probability
If the information is not sufficient.
Expr
In all other cases.
Note
====
Any information passed at the time of query overrides
any information passed at the time of object creation like
transition probabilities, state space.
Pass the transition matrix using TransitionMatrixOf,
generator matrix using GeneratorMatrixOf and state space
using StochasticStateSpaceOf in given_condition using & or And.
"""
check, mat, state_space, new_given_condition = \
self._preprocess(given_condition, evaluate)
if check:
return Probability(condition, new_given_condition)
if isinstance(self, ContinuousMarkovChain):
trans_probs = self.transition_probabilities(mat)
elif isinstance(self, DiscreteMarkovChain):
trans_probs = mat
if isinstance(condition, Relational):
rv, states = (list(condition.atoms(RandomIndexedSymbol))[0],
condition.as_set())
if isinstance(new_given_condition, And):
gcs = new_given_condition.args
else:
gcs = (new_given_condition, )
grvs = new_given_condition.atoms(RandomIndexedSymbol)
min_key_rv = None
for grv in grvs:
if grv.key <= rv.key:
min_key_rv = grv
if min_key_rv == None:
return Probability(condition)
prob, gstate = dict(), None
for gc in gcs:
if gc.has(min_key_rv):
if gc.has(Probability):
p, gp = (gc.rhs, gc.lhs) if isinstance(gc.lhs, Probability) \
else (gc.lhs, gc.rhs)
gr = gp.args[0]
gset = Intersection(gr.as_set(), state_space)
gstate = list(gset)[0]
prob[gset] = p
else:
_, gstate = (gc.lhs.key, gc.rhs) if isinstance(gc.lhs, RandomIndexedSymbol) \
else (gc.rhs.key, gc.lhs)
if any(
(k not in self.index_set) for k in (rv.key, min_key_rv.key)):
raise IndexError(
"The timestamps of the process are not in it's index set.")
states = Intersection(states, state_space)
for state in Union(states, FiniteSet(gstate)):
if Ge(state, mat.shape[0]) == True:
raise IndexError(
"No information is available for (%s, %s) in "
"transition probabilities of shape, (%s, %s). "
"State space is zero indexed." %
(gstate, state, mat.shape[0], mat.shape[1]))
if prob:
gstates = Union(*prob.keys())
if len(gstates) == 1:
gstate = list(gstates)[0]
gprob = list(prob.values())[0]
prob[gstates] = gprob
elif len(gstates) == len(state_space) - 1:
gstate = list(state_space - gstates)[0]
gprob = S(1) - sum(prob.values())
prob[state_space - gstates] = gprob
else:
raise ValueError("Conflicting information.")
else:
gprob = S(1)
if min_key_rv == rv:
return sum([prob[FiniteSet(state)] for state in states])
if isinstance(self, ContinuousMarkovChain):
return gprob * sum([
trans_probs(rv.key - min_key_rv.key).__getitem__(
(gstate, state)) for state in states
])
if isinstance(self, DiscreteMarkovChain):
return gprob * sum([(trans_probs
**(rv.key - min_key_rv.key)).__getitem__(
(gstate, state)) for state in states])
if isinstance(condition, Not):
expr = condition.args[0]
return S(1) - self.probability(expr, given_condition, evaluate, **
kwargs)
if isinstance(condition, And):
compute_later, state2cond, conds = [], dict(), condition.args
for expr in conds:
if isinstance(expr, Relational):
ris = list(expr.atoms(RandomIndexedSymbol))[0]
if state2cond.get(ris, None) is None:
state2cond[ris] = S.true
state2cond[ris] &= expr
else:
compute_later.append(expr)
ris = []
for ri in state2cond:
ris.append(ri)
cset = Intersection(state2cond[ri].as_set(), state_space)
if len(cset) == 0:
return S.Zero
state2cond[ri] = cset.as_relational(ri)
sorted_ris = sorted(ris, key=lambda ri: ri.key)
prod = self.probability(state2cond[sorted_ris[0]], given_condition,
evaluate, **kwargs)
for i in range(1, len(sorted_ris)):
ri, prev_ri = sorted_ris[i], sorted_ris[i - 1]
if not isinstance(state2cond[ri], Eq):
raise ValueError(
"The process is in multiple states at %s, unable to determine the probability."
% (ri))
mat_of = TransitionMatrixOf(self, mat) if isinstance(
self, DiscreteMarkovChain) else GeneratorMatrixOf(
self, mat)
prod *= self.probability(
state2cond[ri], state2cond[prev_ri]
& mat_of
& StochasticStateSpaceOf(self, state_space), evaluate,
**kwargs)
for expr in compute_later:
prod *= self.probability(expr, given_condition, evaluate,
**kwargs)
return prod
if isinstance(condition, Or):
return sum([
self.probability(expr, given_condition, evaluate, **kwargs)
for expr in condition.args
])
raise NotImplementedError(
"Mechanism for handling (%s, %s) queries hasn't been "
"implemented yet." % (expr, condition))
def test_DiscreteMarkovChain():
# pass only the name
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X")
assert X.state_space == S.Reals
assert X.index_set == S.Naturals0
assert X.transition_probabilities == None
t = symbols("t", positive=True, integer=True)
assert isinstance(X[t], RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain(1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X(t))
# pass name and state_space
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [1, 2, 3])
assert Y.transition_probabilities == None
assert Y.state_space == FiniteSet(1, 2, 3)
assert P(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2)) == Probability(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2))
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", dict((1, 1))))
# pass name, state_space and transition_probabilities
T = Matrix([[0.5, 0.2, 0.3], [0.2, 0.5, 0.3], [0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
TS = MatrixSymbol("T", 3, 3)
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
YS = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], TS)
assert YS._transient2transient() == None
assert YS._transient2absorbing() == None
assert Y.joint_distribution(1, Y[2],
3) == JointDistribution(Y[1], Y[2], Y[3])
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y.joint_distribution(Y[1].symbol, Y[2].symbol))
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2), Eq(Y[1], 1)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert (str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2), Eq(
YS[1], 1))) == "T[0, 2]*T[1, 0] + T[1, 1]*T[1, 2] + T[1, 2]*T[2, 2]")
assert P(Eq(YS[1], 1), Eq(YS[2], 2)) == Probability(Eq(YS[1], 1))
assert P(Eq(YS[3], 3), Eq(YS[1], 1)) is S.Zero
TO = Matrix([[0.25, 0.75, 0], [0, 0.25, 0.75], [0.75, 0, 0.25]])
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2),
Eq(Y[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO)).round(3) == Float(
0.375, 3)
assert E(Y[3], evaluate=False) == Expectation(Y[3])
assert E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 1)).round(2) == Float(1.1, 3)
TSO = MatrixSymbol("T", 4, 4)
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2),
Eq(YS[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(YS, TSO))),
)
raises(TypeError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], symbols("M")))
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], MatrixSymbol("T", 3, 4)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 6)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[2], Eq(Y[3], 1)))
# extended tests for probability queries
TO1 = Matrix([
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3), Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)],
[0, Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)],
])
assert P(
And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1),
) == Rational(1, 16)
assert (P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)) / 4)
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1),
) == Rational(1, 4)
assert (P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2)
& StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1),
) is S.Zero)
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Y[1], 1)) == 0.1 * Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))
# testing properties of Markov chain
TO2 = Matrix([
[S.One, 0, 0],
[Rational(1, 3), Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)],
[0, Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)],
])
TO3 = Matrix([
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3), Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)],
[0, Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)],
])
Y2 = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=TO2)
Y3 = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=TO3)
assert Y3._transient2absorbing() == None
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y3.fundamental_matrix())
assert Y2.is_absorbing_chain() == True
assert Y3.is_absorbing_chain() == False
TO4 = Matrix([
[Rational(1, 5), Rational(2, 5),
Rational(2, 5)],
[Rational(1, 10), S.Half, Rational(2, 5)],
[Rational(3, 5), Rational(3, 10),
Rational(1, 10)],
])
Y4 = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=TO4)
w = ImmutableMatrix([[Rational(11, 39),
Rational(16, 39),
Rational(4, 13)]])
assert Y4.limiting_distribution == w
assert Y4.is_regular() == True
TS1 = MatrixSymbol("T", 3, 3)
Y5 = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=TS1)
assert Y5.limiting_distribution(w, TO4).doit() == True
TO6 = Matrix([
[S.One, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0, 0],
[0, S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0],
[0, 0, S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1],
])
Y6 = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=TO6)
assert Y6._transient2absorbing() == ImmutableMatrix([[S.Half, 0], [0, 0],
[0, S.Half]])
assert Y6._transient2transient() == ImmutableMatrix([[0, S.Half, 0],
[S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, S.Half, 0]])
assert Y6.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix([
[Rational(3, 2), S.One, S.Half],
[S.One, S(2), S.One],
[S.Half, S.One, Rational(3, 2)],
])
assert Y6.absorbing_probabilites() == ImmutableMatrix([
[Rational(3, 4), Rational(1, 4)],
[S.Half, S.Half],
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)],
])
# testing miscellaneous queries
T = Matrix([
[S.Half, Rational(1, 4), Rational(1, 4)],
[Rational(1, 3), 0, Rational(2, 3)],
[S.Half, S.Half, 0],
])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X", [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4)),
) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
assert E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 3)
assert variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 9)
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
def test_DiscreteMarkovChain():
# pass only the name
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X")
assert isinstance(X.state_space, Range)
assert isinstance(X.index_of, Range)
assert not X._is_numeric
assert X.index_set == S.Naturals0
assert isinstance(X.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
t = symbols('t', positive=True, integer=True)
assert isinstance(X[t], RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain(1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X(t))
raises(ValueError, lambda: sample_stochastic_process(t))
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(X)))
# pass name and state_space
# any hashable object should be a valid state
# states should be valid as a tuple/set/list/Tuple/Range
sym = symbols('a', real=True)
state_spaces = [(1, 2, 3), [Str('Hello'), sym, DiscreteMarkovChain],
Tuple(1, exp(sym), Str('World'), sympify=False),
Range(-1, 7, 2)]
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", state_spaces[0]),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", state_spaces[1]),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", state_spaces[2])
]
for i, Y in enumerate(chains):
assert isinstance(Y.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
assert Y.state_space == Tuple(*state_spaces[i])
assert Y.number_of_states == 3
assert not Y._is_numeric # because no transition matrix is provided
assert Y.index_of[state_spaces[i][0]] == 0
assert Y.index_of[state_spaces[i][1]] == 1
assert Y.index_of[state_spaces[i][2]] == 2
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): # TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert P(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2),
evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2))
assert E(Y[0]) == Expectation(Y[0])
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(Y)))
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", dict((1, 1))))
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", Range(1, t, 2))
assert Y.number_of_states == ceiling((t - 1) / 2)
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: Y.index_of)
# pass name and transition_probabilities
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[0, 1], [1, 0]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y",
trans_probs=Matrix([[pi, 1 - pi], [sym, 1 - sym]]))
]
for Z in chains:
assert Z.number_of_states == Z.transition_probabilities.shape[0]
assert isinstance(Z.transition_probabilities, ImmutableDenseMatrix)
assert isinstance(Z.state_space, Tuple)
assert Z._is_numeric
# pass name, state_space and transition_probabilities
T = Matrix([[0.5, 0.2, 0.3], [0.2, 0.5, 0.3], [0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
TS = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
YS = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", ['One', 'Two', 3], TS)
assert YS._transient2transient() == None
assert YS._transient2absorbing() == None
assert Y.joint_distribution(1, Y[2],
3) == JointDistribution(Y[1], Y[2], Y[3])
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y.joint_distribution(Y[1].symbol, Y[2].symbol))
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2), Eq(Y[1], 1)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert (P(Eq(YS[3], 2), Eq(YS[1], 1)) -
(TS[0, 2] * TS[1, 0] + TS[1, 1] * TS[1, 2] +
TS[1, 2] * TS[2, 2])).simplify() == 0
assert P(Eq(YS[1], 1), Eq(YS[2], 2)) == Probability(Eq(YS[1], 1))
assert P(Eq(YS[3], 3), Eq(YS[1], 1)) is S.Zero
TO = Matrix([[0.25, 0.75, 0], [0, 0.25, 0.75], [0.75, 0, 0.25]])
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2),
Eq(Y[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO)).round(3) == Float(
0.375, 3)
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): ### TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert E(Y[3], evaluate=False) == Expectation(Y[3])
assert E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 1)).round(2) == Float(1.1, 3)
TSO = MatrixSymbol('T', 4, 4)
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2),
Eq(YS[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(YS, TSO))))
raises(TypeError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], symbols('M')))
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 4)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 6)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[2], Eq(Y[3], 1)))
# extended tests for probability queries
TO1 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
assert P(
And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == Rational(1, 16)
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)), TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == \
Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))/4
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Y[1], 1)) == 0.1 * Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))
# testing properties of Markov chain
TO2 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
TO3 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
Y2 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO2)
Y3 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO3)
assert Y3._transient2absorbing() == None
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y3.fundamental_matrix())
assert Y2.is_absorbing_chain() == True
assert Y3.is_absorbing_chain() == False
TO4 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 5),
Rational(2, 5),
Rational(2, 5)], [Rational(1, 10), S.Half,
Rational(2, 5)],
[Rational(3, 5),
Rational(3, 10),
Rational(1, 10)]])
Y4 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO4)
w = ImmutableMatrix([[Rational(11, 39),
Rational(16, 39),
Rational(4, 13)]])
assert Y4.limiting_distribution == w
assert Y4.is_regular() == True
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y5 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TS1)
assert Y5.limiting_distribution(w, TO4).doit() == True
TO6 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0, 0, 0], [S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0, 0],
[0, S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0], [0, 0, S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1]])
Y6 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO6)
assert Y6._transient2absorbing() == ImmutableMatrix([[S.Half, 0], [0, 0],
[0, S.Half]])
assert Y6._transient2transient() == ImmutableMatrix([[0, S.Half, 0],
[S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, S.Half, 0]])
assert Y6.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 2), S.One, S.Half], [S.One, S(2), S.One],
[S.Half, S.One, Rational(3, 2)]])
assert Y6.absorbing_probabilities() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 4), Rational(1, 4)], [S.Half, S.Half],
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)]])
# testing miscellaneous queries
T = Matrix([[S.Half, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 4)], [Rational(1, 3), 0,
Rational(2, 3)], [S.Half, S.Half, 0]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
assert E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 3)
assert variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 9)
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1], T))
# testing miscellaneous queries with different state space
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', ['A', 'B', 'C'], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
a = X.state_space.args[0]
c = X.state_space.args[2]
assert (E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(a**2 / 3 + 2 * c**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
assert (variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(2 * (-a / 3 + c / 3)**2 / 3 +
(2 * a / 3 - 2 * c / 3)**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
def probability(self,
condition,
given_condition=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Handles probability queries for discrete Markov chains.
Parameters
==========
condition: Relational
given_condition: Relational/And
Returns
=======
Probability
If the transition probabilities are not available
Expr
If the transition probabilities is MatrixSymbol or Matrix
Note
====
Any information passed at the time of query overrides
any information passed at the time of object creation like
transition probabilities, state space.
Pass the transition matrix using TransitionMatrixOf and state space
using StochasticStateSpaceOf in given_condition using & or And.
"""
check, trans_probs, state_space, given_condition = \
self._preprocess(given_condition, evaluate)
if check:
return Probability(condition, given_condition)
if isinstance(condition, Eq) and \
isinstance(given_condition, Eq) and \
len(given_condition.atoms(RandomSymbol)) == 1:
# handles simple queries like P(Eq(X[i], dest_state), Eq(X[i], init_state))
lhsc, rhsc = condition.lhs, condition.rhs
lhsg, rhsg = given_condition.lhs, given_condition.rhs
if not isinstance(lhsc, RandomIndexedSymbol):
lhsc, rhsc = (rhsc, lhsc)
if not isinstance(lhsg, RandomIndexedSymbol):
lhsg, rhsg = (rhsg, lhsg)
keyc, statec, keyg, stateg = (lhsc.key, rhsc, lhsg.key, rhsg)
if Lt(stateg, trans_probs.shape[0]) == False or Lt(
statec, trans_probs.shape[1]) == False:
raise IndexError(
"No information is available for (%s, %s) in "
"transition probabilities of shape, (%s, %s). "
"State space is zero indexed." %
(stateg, statec, trans_probs.shape[0],
trans_probs.shape[1]))
if keyc < keyg:
raise ValueError(
"Incorrect given condition is given, probability "
"of past state cannot be computed from future state.")
nsteptp = trans_probs**(keyc - keyg)
if hasattr(nsteptp, "__getitem__"):
return nsteptp.__getitem__((stateg, statec))
return Indexed(nsteptp, stateg, statec)
info = TransitionMatrixOf(self, trans_probs) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(
self, state_space)
new_gc = given_condition & info
if isinstance(condition, And):
# handle queries like,
# P(Eq(X[i+k], s1) & Eq(X[i+m], s2) . . . & Eq(X[i], sn), Eq(P(Eq(X[i], si)), prob))
conds = condition.args
idx2state = dict()
for cond in conds:
idx, state = (cond.lhs, cond.rhs) if isinstance(cond.lhs, RandomIndexedSymbol) else \
(cond.rhs, cond.lhs)
idx2state[idx] = cond if idx2state.get(idx, None) is None else \
idx2state[idx] & cond
if any(
len(Intersection(idx2state[idx].as_set(), state_space)) !=
1 for idx in idx2state):
return S.Zero # a RandomIndexedSymbol cannot go to different states simultaneously
i, result = -1, 1
conds = And.fromiter(
Intersection(idx2state[idx].as_set(),
state_space).as_relational(idx)
for idx in idx2state)
if not isinstance(conds, And):
return self.probability(conds, new_gc)
conds = conds.args
while i > -len(conds):
result *= self.probability(conds[i], conds[i - 1] & info)
i -= 1
if isinstance(given_condition,
(TransitionMatrixOf, StochasticStateSpaceOf)):
return result * Probability(conds[i])
if isinstance(given_condition, And):
idx_sym = conds[i].atoms(RandomIndexedSymbol)
prob, count = S(0), 0
for gc in given_condition.args:
if gc.atoms(RandomIndexedSymbol) == idx_sym:
prob += gc.rhs if isinstance(gc.lhs,
Probability) else gc.lhs
count += 1
if isinstance(state_space, FiniteSet) and \
count == len(state_space) - 1:
given_condition = Eq(Probability(conds[i]), S(1) - prob)
if isinstance(given_condition, Eq):
if not isinstance(given_condition.lhs, Probability) or \
given_condition.lhs.args[0] != conds[i]:
raise ValueError("Probability for %s needed", conds[i])
return result * given_condition.rhs
if isinstance(condition, Or):
conds, prob_sum = condition.args, S(0)
idx2state = dict()
for cond in conds:
idx, state = (cond.lhs, cond.rhs) if isinstance(cond.lhs, RandomIndexedSymbol) else \
(cond.rhs, cond.lhs)
idx2state[idx] = cond if idx2state.get(idx, None) is None else \
idx2state[idx] | cond
conds = Or.fromiter(
Intersection(idx2state[idx].as_set(),
state_space).as_relational(idx)
for idx in idx2state)
if not isinstance(conds, Or):
return self.probability(conds, new_gc)
return sum([self.probability(cond, new_gc) for cond in conds.args])
if isinstance(condition, Ne):
prob = self.probability(Not(condition), new_gc)
return S(1) - prob
raise NotImplementedError(
"Mechanism for handling (%s, %s) queries hasn't been "
"implemented yet." % (condition, given_condition))
def test_DiscreteMarkovChain():
# pass only the name
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X")
assert isinstance(X.state_space, Range)
assert X.index_set == S.Naturals0
assert isinstance(X.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
t = symbols('t', positive=True, integer=True)
assert isinstance(X[t], RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain(1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X(t))
nz = Symbol('n', integer=True)
TZ = MatrixSymbol('M', nz, nz)
SZ = Range(nz)
YZ = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', SZ, TZ)
assert P(Eq(YZ[2], 1), Eq(YZ[1], 0)) == TZ[0, 1]
raises(ValueError, lambda: sample_stochastic_process(t))
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(X)))
# pass name and state_space
# any hashable object should be a valid state
# states should be valid as a tuple/set/list/Tuple/Range
sym, rainy, cloudy, sunny = symbols('a Rainy Cloudy Sunny', real=True)
state_spaces = [(1, 2, 3), [Str('Hello'), sym, DiscreteMarkovChain],
Tuple(1, exp(sym), Str('World'), sympify=False),
Range(-1, 5, 2), [rainy, cloudy, sunny]]
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", state_space) for state_space in state_spaces
]
for i, Y in enumerate(chains):
assert isinstance(Y.transition_probabilities, MatrixSymbol)
assert Y.state_space == state_spaces[i] or Y.state_space == FiniteSet(
*state_spaces[i])
assert Y.number_of_states == 3
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): # TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert P(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2),
evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2))
assert E(Y[0]) == Expectation(Y[0])
raises(ValueError, lambda: next(sample_stochastic_process(Y)))
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", dict((1, 1))))
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", Range(1, t, 2))
assert Y.number_of_states == ceiling((t - 1) / 2)
# pass name and transition_probabilities
chains = [
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", trans_probs=Matrix([[0, 1], [1, 0]])),
DiscreteMarkovChain("Y",
trans_probs=Matrix([[pi, 1 - pi], [sym, 1 - sym]]))
]
for Z in chains:
assert Z.number_of_states == Z.transition_probabilities.shape[0]
assert isinstance(Z.transition_probabilities, ImmutableDenseMatrix)
# pass name, state_space and transition_probabilities
T = Matrix([[0.5, 0.2, 0.3], [0.2, 0.5, 0.3], [0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
TS = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
YS = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", ['One', 'Two', 3], TS)
assert YS._transient2transient() == None
assert YS._transient2absorbing() == None
assert Y.joint_distribution(1, Y[2],
3) == JointDistribution(Y[1], Y[2], Y[3])
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y.joint_distribution(Y[1].symbol, Y[2].symbol))
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2), Eq(Y[1], 1)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert (P(Eq(YS[3], 2), Eq(YS[1], 1)) -
(TS[0, 2] * TS[1, 0] + TS[1, 1] * TS[1, 2] +
TS[1, 2] * TS[2, 2])).simplify() == 0
assert P(Eq(YS[1], 1), Eq(YS[2], 2)) == Probability(Eq(YS[1], 1))
assert P(Eq(YS[3], 3), Eq(
YS[1],
1)) == TS[0, 2] * TS[1, 0] + TS[1, 1] * TS[1, 2] + TS[1, 2] * TS[2, 2]
TO = Matrix([[0.25, 0.75, 0], [0, 0.25, 0.75], [0.75, 0, 0.25]])
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2),
Eq(Y[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO)).round(3) == Float(
0.375, 3)
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): ### TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert E(Y[3], evaluate=False) == Expectation(Y[3])
assert E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 1)).round(2) == Float(1.1, 3)
TSO = MatrixSymbol('T', 4, 4)
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2),
Eq(YS[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(YS, TSO))))
raises(TypeError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], symbols('M')))
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 4)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 6)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[2], Eq(Y[3], 1)))
# extended tests for probability queries
TO1 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
assert P(
And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == Rational(1, 16)
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)), TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == \
Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))/4
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == Rational(1, 4)
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [None, 'None', 1])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) is S.Zero
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Y[1], 1)) == 0.1 * Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))
# testing properties of Markov chain
TO2 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
TO3 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4), 0],
[Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3),
Rational(1, 3)], [0, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(3, 4)]])
Y2 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO2)
Y3 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO3)
assert Y3._transient2absorbing() == None
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y3.fundamental_matrix())
assert Y2.is_absorbing_chain() == True
assert Y3.is_absorbing_chain() == False
TO4 = Matrix([[Rational(1, 5),
Rational(2, 5),
Rational(2, 5)], [Rational(1, 10), S.Half,
Rational(2, 5)],
[Rational(3, 5),
Rational(3, 10),
Rational(1, 10)]])
Y4 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO4)
w = ImmutableMatrix([[Rational(11, 39),
Rational(16, 39),
Rational(4, 13)]])
assert Y4.limiting_distribution == w
assert Y4.is_regular() == True
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y5 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TS1)
assert Y5.limiting_distribution(w, TO4).doit() == True
assert Y5.stationary_distribution(condition_set=True).subs(
TS1, TO4).contains(w).doit() == S.true
TO6 = Matrix([[S.One, 0, 0, 0, 0], [S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0, 0],
[0, S.Half, 0, S.Half, 0], [0, 0, S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 1]])
Y6 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO6)
assert Y6._transient2absorbing() == ImmutableMatrix([[S.Half, 0], [0, 0],
[0, S.Half]])
assert Y6._transient2transient() == ImmutableMatrix([[0, S.Half, 0],
[S.Half, 0, S.Half],
[0, S.Half, 0]])
assert Y6.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 2), S.One, S.Half], [S.One, S(2), S.One],
[S.Half, S.One, Rational(3, 2)]])
assert Y6.absorbing_probabilities() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 4), Rational(1, 4)], [S.Half, S.Half],
[Rational(1, 4), Rational(3, 4)]])
# test for zero-sized matrix functionality
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', trans_probs=Matrix([[]]))
assert X.number_of_states == 0
assert X.stationary_distribution() == Matrix([[]])
# test communication_class
# see https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HbxLlwwn2b3U8Lj7eb_ASIUb5vYaNIjg?usp=sharing
# tutorial 2.pdf
TO7 = Matrix([[0, 5, 5, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 10, 0], [5, 0, 5, 0, 0],
[0, 10, 0, 0, 0], [0, 3, 0, 3, 4]]) / 10
Y7 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO7)
tuples = Y7.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([1, 3], [0, 2], [4])
assert recurrence == (True, False, False)
assert periods == (2, 1, 1)
TO8 = Matrix([[0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0], [5, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0], [0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 6],
[10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0]
]) / 10
Y8 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO8)
tuples = Y8.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([0, 3], [1, 2, 5, 4])
assert recurrence == (True, False)
assert periods == (2, 2)
TO9 = Matrix(
[[2, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 0], [0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3], [0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 6, 1, 0, 0],
[0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[4, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0], [2, 0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0],
[3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 2], [0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3]]) / 10
Y9 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO9)
tuples = Y9.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([0, 3, 6, 7], [1], [2, 8, 9], [5], [4])
assert recurrence == (True, True, False, True, False)
assert periods == (1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
# test custom state space
Y10 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', [1, 2, 3], TO2)
tuples = Y10.communication_classes()
classes, recurrence, periods = list(zip(*tuples))
assert classes == ([1], [2, 3])
assert recurrence == (True, False)
assert periods == (1, 1)
# testing miscellaneous queries
T = Matrix([[S.Half, Rational(1, 4),
Rational(1, 4)], [Rational(1, 3), 0,
Rational(2, 3)], [S.Half, S.Half, 0]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
assert E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 3)
assert variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) == Rational(8, 9)
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1], T))
# testing miscellaneous queries with different state space
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', ['A', 'B', 'C'], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)), Rational(1, 4))) == Rational(1, 12)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(2, 3)
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) is S.Zero
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == Rational(1, 3)
a = X.state_space.args[0]
c = X.state_space.args[2]
assert (E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(a**2 / 3 + 2 * c**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
assert (variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) -
(2 * (-a / 3 + c / 3)**2 / 3 +
(2 * a / 3 - 2 * c / 3)**2 / 3)).simplify() == 0
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
def test_ContinuousMarkovChain():
T1 = Matrix([[S(-2), S(2), S.Zero], [S.Zero, S.NegativeOne, S.One],
[Rational(3, 2), Rational(3, 2),
S(-3)]])
C1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T1)
assert C1.limiting_distribution() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[Rational(3, 19), Rational(12, 19),
Rational(4, 19)]])
T2 = Matrix([[-S.One, S.One, S.Zero], [S.One, -S.One, S.Zero],
[S.Zero, S.One, -S.One]])
C2 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], T2)
A, t = C2.generator_matrix, symbols('t', positive=True)
assert C2.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == Matrix(
[[S.Half + exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2, 0],
[S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half + exp(-2 * t) / 2, 0],
[
S.Half - exp(-t) + exp(-2 * t) / 2, S.Half - exp(-2 * t) / 2,
exp(-t)
]])
with ignore_warnings(
UserWarning): ### TODO: Restore tests once warnings are removed
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1),
evaluate=False) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 1), Eq(C2(0), 1)) == exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half
assert P(
Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 1),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)),
S.Half)) == (Rational(1, 4) - exp(-2) / 4) * (exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half)
assert P(
Not(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)) |
(Eq(C2(1), 0) & Eq(C2(2), 1) & Eq(C2(3), 2)),
Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 0)), Rational(1, 4))
& Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), Rational(1, 4))) is S.One
assert E(C2(Rational(3, 2)),
Eq(C2(0), 2)) == -exp(-3) / 2 + 2 * exp(Rational(-3, 2)) + S.Half
assert variance(C2(Rational(3, 2)), Eq(
C2(0),
1)) == ((S.Half - exp(-3) / 2)**2 * (exp(-3) / 2 + S.Half) +
(Rational(-1, 2) - exp(-3) / 2)**2 * (S.Half - exp(-3) / 2))
raises(KeyError, lambda: P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(1), 1)), S.Half)))
assert P(Eq(C2(1), 0), Eq(P(Eq(C2(5), 1)),
S.Half)) == Probability(Eq(C2(1), 0))
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('G', 3, 3)
CS1 = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', [0, 1, 2], TS1)
A = CS1.generator_matrix
assert CS1.transition_probabilities(A)(t) == exp(t * A)
C3 = ContinuousMarkovChain(
'C', [Symbol('0'), Symbol('1'), Symbol('2')], T2)
assert P(Eq(C3(1), 1), Eq(C3(0), 1)) == exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half
assert P(Eq(C3(1), Symbol('1')), Eq(C3(0),
Symbol('1'))) == exp(-2) / 2 + S.Half
#test probability queries
G = Matrix([[-S(1), Rational(1, 10),
Rational(9, 10)], [Rational(2, 5), -S(1),
Rational(3, 5)],
[Rational(1, 2), Rational(1, 2), -S(1)]])
C = ContinuousMarkovChain('C', state_space=[0, 1, 2], gen_mat=G)
assert P(Eq(C(7.385), C(3.19)), Eq(C(0.862),
0)).round(5) == Float(0.35469, 5)
assert P(Gt(C(98.715), C(19.807)), Eq(C(11.314),
2)).round(5) == Float(0.32452, 5)
assert P(Le(C(5.9), C(10.112)), Eq(C(4), 1)).round(6) == Float(0.675214, 6)
assert Float(P(Eq(C(7.32), C(2.91)), Eq(C(2.63), 1)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Ne(C(7.32), C(2.91)), Eq(C(2.63), 1)), 14)
assert Float(P(Gt(C(3.36), C(1.101)), Eq(C(0.8), 2)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Le(C(3.36), C(1.101)), Eq(C(0.8), 2)), 14)
assert Float(P(Lt(C(4.9), C(2.79)), Eq(C(1.61), 0)),
14) == Float(1 - P(Ge(C(4.9), C(2.79)), Eq(C(1.61), 0)), 14)
assert P(Eq(C(5.243), C(10.912)), Eq(C(2.174),
1)) == P(Eq(C(10.912), C(5.243)),
Eq(C(2.174), 1))
assert P(Gt(C(2.344), C(9.9)), Eq(C(1.102),
1)) == P(Lt(C(9.9), C(2.344)),
Eq(C(1.102), 1))
assert P(Ge(C(7.87), C(1.008)), Eq(C(0.153),
1)) == P(Le(C(1.008), C(7.87)),
Eq(C(0.153), 1))
#test symbolic queries
a, b, c, d = symbols('a b c d')
query = P(Eq(C(a), b), Eq(C(c), d))
assert query.subs({
a: 3.65,
b: 2,
c: 1.78,
d: 1
}).evalf().round(10) == P(Eq(C(3.65), 2), Eq(C(1.78), 1)).round(10)
query_gt = P(Gt(C(a), b), Eq(C(c), d))
query_le = P(Le(C(a), b), Eq(C(c), d))
assert query_gt.subs({
a: 13.2,
b: 0,
c: 3.29,
d: 2
}).evalf() + query_le.subs({
a: 13.2,
b: 0,
c: 3.29,
d: 2
}).evalf() == 1
query_ge = P(Ge(C(a), b), Eq(C(c), d))
query_lt = P(Lt(C(a), b), Eq(C(c), d))
assert query_ge.subs({
a: 7.43,
b: 1,
c: 1.45,
d: 0
}).evalf() + query_lt.subs({
a: 7.43,
b: 1,
c: 1.45,
d: 0
}).evalf() == 1
#test issue 20078
assert (2 * C(1) + 3 * C(1)).simplify() == 5 * C(1)
assert (2 * C(1) - 3 * C(1)).simplify() == -C(1)
assert (2 * (0.25 * C(1))).simplify() == 0.5 * C(1)
assert (2 * C(1) * 0.25 * C(1)).simplify() == 0.5 * C(1)**2
assert (C(1)**2 + C(1)**3).simplify() == (C(1) + 1) * C(1)**2
def test_DiscreteMarkovChain():
# pass only the name
X = DiscreteMarkovChain("X")
assert X.state_space == S.Reals
assert X.index_set == S.Naturals0
assert X.transition_probabilities == None
t = symbols('t', positive=True, integer=True)
assert isinstance(X[t], RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain(1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X(t))
# pass name and state_space
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [1, 2, 3])
assert Y.transition_probabilities == None
assert Y.state_space == FiniteSet(1, 2, 3)
assert P(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2)) == Probability(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[0], 2))
assert E(X[0]) == Expectation(X[0])
raises(TypeError, lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", dict((1, 1))))
# pass name, state_space and transition_probabilities
T = Matrix([[0.5, 0.2, 0.3], [0.2, 0.5, 0.3], [0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
TS = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], T)
YS = DiscreteMarkovChain("Y", [0, 1, 2], TS)
assert YS._transient2transient() == None
assert YS._transient2absorbing() == None
assert Y.joint_distribution(1, Y[2],
3) == JointDistribution(Y[1], Y[2], Y[3])
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y.joint_distribution(Y[1].symbol, Y[2].symbol))
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2), Eq(Y[1], 1)).round(2) == Float(0.36, 2)
assert str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2), Eq(YS[1], 1))) == \
"T[0, 2]*T[1, 0] + T[1, 1]*T[1, 2] + T[1, 2]*T[2, 2]"
TO = Matrix([[0.25, 0.75, 0], [0, 0.25, 0.75], [0.75, 0, 0.25]])
assert P(Eq(Y[3], 2),
Eq(Y[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO)).round(3) == Float(
0.375, 3)
assert E(Y[3], evaluate=False) == Expectation(Y[3])
assert E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 1)).round(2) == Float(1.1, 3)
TSO = MatrixSymbol('T', 4, 4)
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 2),
Eq(YS[1], 1) & TransitionMatrixOf(YS, TSO))))
raises(TypeError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], symbols('M')))
raises(
ValueError,
lambda: DiscreteMarkovChain("Z", [0, 1, 2], MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 4)))
raises(IndexError, lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[3], 3), Eq(YS[1], 1))))
raises(ValueError, lambda: str(P(Eq(YS[1], 1), Eq(YS[2], 2))))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[3], Eq(Y[2], 6)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(Y[2], Eq(Y[3], 1)))
# extended tests for probability queries
TO1 = Matrix([[S(1) / 4, S(3) / 4, 0], [S(1) / 3,
S(1) / 3,
S(1) / 3], [0,
S(1) / 4,
S(3) / 4]])
assert P(
And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)),
Eq(Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0)),
S(1) / 4) & TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == S(1) / 16
assert P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)), TransitionMatrixOf(Y, TO1)) == \
Probability(Eq(Y[0], 0))/4
assert P(
Lt(X[1], 2) & Gt(X[1], 0),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == S(1) / 4
assert P(
Ne(X[1], 2) & Ne(X[1], 1),
Eq(X[0], 2) & StochasticStateSpaceOf(X, [0, 1, 2])
& TransitionMatrixOf(X, TO1)) == S(0)
raises(
ValueError, lambda: str(
P(And(Eq(Y[2], 1), Eq(Y[1], 1), Eq(Y[0], 0)), Eq(Y[1], 1))))
# testing properties of Markov chain
TO2 = Matrix([[S(1), 0, 0], [S(1) / 3, S(1) / 3,
S(1) / 3], [0, S(1) / 4,
S(3) / 4]])
TO3 = Matrix([[S(1) / 4, S(3) / 4, 0], [S(1) / 3,
S(1) / 3,
S(1) / 3], [0,
S(1) / 4,
S(3) / 4]])
Y2 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO2)
Y3 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO3)
assert Y3._transient2absorbing() == None
raises(ValueError, lambda: Y3.fundamental_matrix())
assert Y2.is_absorbing_chain() == True
assert Y3.is_absorbing_chain() == False
TO4 = Matrix([[S(1) / 5, S(2) / 5, S(2) / 5],
[S(1) / 10, S(1) / 2, S(2) / 5],
[S(3) / 5, S(3) / 10, S(1) / 10]])
Y4 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO4)
w = ImmutableMatrix([[S(11) / 39, S(16) / 39, S(4) / 13]])
assert Y4.limiting_distribution == w
assert Y4.is_regular() == True
TS1 = MatrixSymbol('T', 3, 3)
Y5 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TS1)
assert Y5.limiting_distribution(w, TO4).doit() == True
TO6 = Matrix([[S(1), 0, 0, 0, 0], [S(1) / 2, 0,
S(1) / 2, 0, 0],
[0, S(1) / 2, 0, S(1) / 2, 0], [0, 0,
S(1) / 2, 0,
S(1) / 2], [0, 0, 0, 0, 1]])
Y6 = DiscreteMarkovChain('Y', trans_probs=TO6)
assert Y6._transient2absorbing() == ImmutableMatrix([[S(1) / 2, 0], [0, 0],
[0, S(1) / 2]])
assert Y6._transient2transient() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[0, S(1) / 2, 0], [S(1) / 2, 0, S(1) / 2], [0, S(1) / 2, 0]])
assert Y6.fundamental_matrix() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[S(3) / 2, S(1), S(1) / 2], [S(1), S(2), S(1)],
[S(1) / 2, S(1), S(3) / 2]])
assert Y6.absorbing_probabilites() == ImmutableMatrix(
[[S(3) / 4, S(1) / 4], [S(1) / 2, S(1) / 2], [S(1) / 4,
S(3) / 4]])
# testing miscellaneous queries
T = Matrix([[S(1) / 2, S(1) / 4, S(1) / 4], [S(1) / 3, 0,
S(2) / 3],
[S(1) / 2, S(1) / 2, 0]])
X = DiscreteMarkovChain('X', [0, 1, 2], T)
assert P(
Eq(X[1], 2) & Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[3], 0),
Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 0)),
S(1) / 4) & Eq(P(Eq(X[1], 1)),
S(1) / 4)) == S(1) / 12
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) | Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == S(2) / 3
assert P(Eq(X[2], 1) & Eq(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == S(0)
assert P(Ne(X[2], 2), Eq(X[1], 1)) == S(1) / 3
assert E(X[1]**2, Eq(X[0], 1)) == S(8) / 3
assert variance(X[1], Eq(X[0], 1)) == S(8) / 9
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X[1], Eq(X[2], 1)))
def test_PoissonProcess():
X = PoissonProcess("X", 3)
assert X.state_space == S.Naturals0
assert X.index_set == Interval(0, oo)
assert X.lamda == 3
t, d, x, y = symbols('t d x y', positive=True)
assert isinstance(X(t), RandomIndexedSymbol)
assert X.distribution(t) == PoissonDistribution(3 * t)
raises(ValueError, lambda: PoissonProcess("X", -1))
raises(NotImplementedError, lambda: X[t])
raises(IndexError, lambda: X(-5))
assert X.joint_distribution(X(2), X(3)) == JointDistributionHandmade(
Lambda((X(2), X(3)), 6**X(2) * 9**X(3) * exp(-15) /
(factorial(X(2)) * factorial(X(3)))))
assert X.joint_distribution(4, 6) == JointDistributionHandmade(
Lambda((X(4), X(6)), 12**X(4) * 18**X(6) * exp(-30) /
(factorial(X(4)) * factorial(X(6)))))
assert P(X(t) < 1) == exp(-3 * t)
assert P(Eq(X(t), 0),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(3, 5))) == exp(-6) # exp(-2*lamda)
res = P(Eq(X(t), 1), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(3, 4)))
assert res == 3 * exp(-3)
# Equivalent to P(Eq(X(t), 1))**4 because of non-overlapping intervals
assert P(
Eq(X(t), 1) & Eq(X(d), 1) & Eq(X(x), 1) & Eq(X(y), 1),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(1, 2)) & Contains(x, Interval.Lopen(2, 3))
& Contains(y, Interval.Lopen(3, 4))) == res**4
# Return Probability because of overlapping intervals
assert P(Eq(X(t), 2) & Eq(X(d), 3), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 2))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(2, 4))) == \
Probability(Eq(X(d), 3) & Eq(X(t), 2), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 2))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(2, 4)))
raises(ValueError, lambda: P(
Eq(X(t), 2) & Eq(X(d), 3),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 4)) & Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(3, oo)))
) # no bound on d
assert P(Eq(X(3), 2)) == 81 * exp(-9) / 2
assert P(Eq(X(t), 2), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0,
5))) == 225 * exp(-15) / 2
# Check that probability works correctly by adding it to 1
res1 = P(X(t) <= 3, Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 5)))
res2 = P(X(t) > 3, Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 5)))
assert res1 == 691 * exp(-15)
assert (res1 + res2).simplify() == 1
# Check Not and Or
assert P(Not(Eq(X(t), 2) & (X(d) > 3)), Contains(t, Interval.Ropen(2, 4)) & \
Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(7, 8))).simplify() == -18*exp(-6) + 234*exp(-9) + 1
assert P(Eq(X(t), 2) | Ne(X(t), 4),
Contains(t, Interval.Ropen(2, 4))) == 1 - 36 * exp(-6)
raises(ValueError, lambda: P(X(t) > 2, X(t) + X(d)))
assert E(
X(t)) == 3 * t # property of the distribution at a given timestamp
assert E(
X(t)**2 + X(d) * 2 + X(y)**3,
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(1, 2))
& Contains(y, Interval.Ropen(3, 4))) == 75
assert E(X(t)**2, Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))) == 12
assert E(x*(X(t) + X(d))*(X(t)**2+X(d)**2), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(1, 2))) == \
Expectation(x*(X(d) + X(t))*(X(d)**2 + X(t)**2), Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Ropen(1, 2)))
# Value Error because of infinite time bound
raises(ValueError, lambda: E(X(t)**3, Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(1, oo))))
# Equivalent to E(X(t)**2) - E(X(d)**2) == E(X(1)**2) - E(X(1)**2) == 0
assert E((X(t) + X(d)) * (X(t) - X(d)),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(0, 1))
& Contains(d, Interval.Lopen(1, 2))) == 0
assert E(X(2) + x * E(X(5))) == 15 * x + 6
assert E(x * X(1) + y) == 3 * x + y
assert P(Eq(X(1), 2) & Eq(X(t), 3),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(1, 2))) == 81 * exp(-6) / 4
Y = PoissonProcess("Y", 6)
Z = X + Y
assert Z.lamda == X.lamda + Y.lamda == 9
raises(ValueError,
lambda: X + 5) # should be added be only PoissonProcess instance
N, M = Z.split(4, 5)
assert N.lamda == 4
assert M.lamda == 5
raises(ValueError, lambda: Z.split(3, 2)) # 2+3 != 9
raises(
ValueError, lambda: P(Eq(X(t), 0),
Contains(t, Interval.Lopen(1, 3)) & Eq(X(1), 0)))
# check if it handles queries with two random variables in one args
res1 = P(Eq(N(3), N(5)))
assert res1 == P(Eq(N(t), 0), Contains(t, Interval(3, 5)))
res2 = P(N(3) > N(1))
assert res2 == P((N(t) > 0), Contains(t, Interval(1, 3)))
assert P(N(3) < N(1)) == 0 # condition is not possible
res3 = P(N(3) <= N(1)) # holds only for Eq(N(3), N(1))
assert res3 == P(Eq(N(t), 0), Contains(t, Interval(1, 3)))
# tests from https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter11/11_1_2_basic_concepts_of_the_poisson_process.php
X = PoissonProcess('X', 10) # 11.1
assert P(Eq(X(S(1) / 3), 3)
& Eq(X(1), 10)) == exp(-10) * Rational(8000000000, 11160261)
assert P(Eq(X(1), 1), Eq(X(S(1) / 3), 3)) == 0
assert P(Eq(X(1), 10), Eq(X(S(1) / 3), 3)) == P(Eq(X(S(2) / 3), 7))
X = PoissonProcess('X', 2) # 11.2
assert P(X(S(1) / 2) < 1) == exp(-1)
assert P(X(3) < 1, Eq(X(1), 0)) == exp(-4)
assert P(Eq(X(4), 3), Eq(X(2), 3)) == exp(-4)
X = PoissonProcess('X', 3)
assert P(Eq(X(2), 5) & Eq(X(1), 2)) == Rational(81, 4) * exp(-6)
# check few properties
assert P(
X(2) <= 3,
X(1) >= 1) == 3 * P(Eq(X(1), 0)) + 2 * P(Eq(X(1), 1)) + P(Eq(X(1), 2))
assert P(X(2) <= 3, X(1) > 1) == 2 * P(Eq(X(1), 0)) + 1 * P(Eq(X(1), 1))
assert P(Eq(X(2), 5) & Eq(X(1), 2)) == P(Eq(X(1), 3)) * P(Eq(X(1), 2))
assert P(Eq(X(3), 4), Eq(X(1), 3)) == P(Eq(X(2), 1))
#test issue 20078
assert (2 * X(t) + 3 * X(t)).simplify() == 5 * X(t)
assert (2 * X(t) - 3 * X(t)).simplify() == -X(t)
assert (2 * (0.25 * X(t))).simplify() == 0.5 * X(t)
assert (2 * X(t) * 0.25 * X(t)).simplify() == 0.5 * X(t)**2
assert (X(t)**2 + X(t)**3).simplify() == (X(t) + 1) * X(t)**2
def probability(self,
condition,
given_condition=None,
evaluate=True,
**kwargs):
"""
Handles probability queries for discrete Markov chains.
Parameters
==========
condition: Relational
given_condition: Relational/And
Returns
=======
Probability
If the transition probabilities are not available
Expr
If the transition probabilities is MatrixSymbol or Matrix
Note
====
Any information passed at the time of query overrides
any information passed at the time of object creation like
transition probabilities, state space.
Pass the transition matrix using TransitionMatrixOf and state space
using StochasticStateSpaceOf in given_condition using & or And.
"""
check, trans_probs, state_space, given_condition = \
self._preprocess(given_condition, evaluate)
if check:
return Probability(condition, given_condition)
if isinstance(condition, Eq) and \
isinstance(given_condition, Eq) and \
len(given_condition.atoms(RandomSymbol)) == 1:
# handles simple queries like P(Eq(X[i], dest_state), Eq(X[i], init_state))
lhsc, rhsc = condition.lhs, condition.rhs
lhsg, rhsg = given_condition.lhs, given_condition.rhs
if not isinstance(lhsc, RandomIndexedSymbol):
lhsc, rhsc = (rhsc, lhsc)
if not isinstance(lhsg, RandomIndexedSymbol):
lhsg, rhsg = (rhsg, lhsg)
keyc, statec, keyg, stateg = (lhsc.key, rhsc, lhsg.key, rhsg)
if Lt(stateg, trans_probs.shape[0]) == False or Lt(
statec, trans_probs.shape[1]) == False:
raise IndexError(
"No information is avaliable for (%s, %s) in "
"transition probabilities of shape, (%s, %s). "
"State space is zero indexed." %
(stateg, statec, trans_probs.shape[0],
trans_probs.shape[1]))
if keyc < keyg:
raise ValueError(
"Incorrect given condition is given, probability "
"of past state cannot be computed from future state.")
nsteptp = trans_probs**(keyc - keyg)
if hasattr(nsteptp, "__getitem__"):
return nsteptp.__getitem__((stateg, statec))
return Indexed(nsteptp, stateg, statec)
if isinstance(condition, And):
# handle queries like,
# P(Eq(X[i+k], s1) & Eq(X[i+m], s2) . . . & Eq(X[i], sn), Eq(P(X[i]), prob))
conds = condition.args
i, result = -1, 1
while i > -len(conds):
result *= self.probability(conds[i], conds[i-1] & \
TransitionMatrixOf(self, trans_probs) & \
StochasticStateSpaceOf(self, state_space))
i -= 1
if isinstance(given_condition,
(TransitionMatrixOf, StochasticStateSpaceOf)):
return result * Probability(conds[i])
if isinstance(given_condition, Eq):
if not isinstance(given_condition.lhs, Probability) or \
given_condition.lhs.args[0] != conds[i]:
raise ValueError("Probability for %s needed", conds[i])
return result * given_condition.rhs
raise NotImplementedError(
"Mechanism for handling (%s, %s) queries hasn't been "
"implemented yet." % (condition, given_condition))