def market_simulator(df_orders, df_orders_benchmark, start_val=1000000, commission=9.95,
impact=0.005, daily_rf=0.0, samples_per_year=252.0, save_fig=False, fig_name="plot.png"):
"""
This function takes in and executes trades from orders dataframes
Parameters:
df_orders: A dataframe that contains portfolio orders
df_orders_benchmark: A dataframe that contains benchmark orders
start_val: The starting cash in dollars
commission: The fixed amount in dollars charged for each transaction (both entry and exit)
impact: The amount the price moves against the trader compared to the historical data at each transaction
daily_rf: Daily risk-free rate, assuming it does not change
samples_per_year: Sampling frequency per year
save_fig: Whether to save the plot or not
fig_name: The name of the saved figure
Returns:
Print out final portfolio value of the portfolio, as well as Sharpe ratio,
cumulative return, average daily return and standard deviation of the portfolio and Benchmark.
Plot a chart of the portfolio and benchmark performances
"""
# Process portfolio orders
portvals = compute_portvals(df_orders=df_orders, start_val=start_val,
commission=commission, impact=impact)
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals,
daily_rf=daily_rf, samples_per_year=samples_per_year)
# Process benchmark orders
portvals_bm = compute_portvals(df_orders=df_orders_benchmark, start_val=start_val,
commission=commission, impact=impact)
# Get benchmark stats
cum_ret_bm, avg_daily_ret_bm, std_daily_ret_bm, sharpe_ratio_bm = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_bm,
daily_rf=daily_rf, samples_per_year=samples_per_year)
# Compare portfolio against Benchmark
print ("Sharpe Ratio of Portfolio: {}".format(sharpe_ratio))
print ("Sharpe Ratio of Benchmark : {}".format(sharpe_ratio_bm))
print ()
print ("Cumulative Return of Portfolio: {}".format(cum_ret))
print ("Cumulative Return of Benchmark : {}".format(cum_ret_bm))
print ()
print ("Standard Deviation of Portfolio: {}".format(std_daily_ret))
print ("Standard Deviation of Benchmark : {}".format(std_daily_ret_bm))
print ()
print ("Average Daily Return of Portfolio: {}".format(avg_daily_ret))
print ("Average Daily Return of Benchmark : {}".format(avg_daily_ret_bm))
print ()
print ("Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals.iloc[-1, -1]))
print ("Final Benchmark Value: {}".format(portvals_bm.iloc[-1, -1]))
# Rename columns and normalize data to the first date of the date range
portvals.rename(columns={"port_val": "Portfolio"}, inplace=True)
portvals_bm.rename(columns={"port_val": "Benchmark"}, inplace=True)
plot_norm_data_vertical_lines(df_orders, portvals, portvals_bm,
save_fig=False, fig_name="plot.png")
def simulateOrders(start_date, end_date, orders_file, start_val, title="Portfolio Value"):
# Process orders
portvals = compute_portvals(start_date, end_date, orders_file, start_val)
if isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame):
portvals = portvals[portvals.columns[0]] # if a DataFrame is returned select the first column to get a Series
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
# Simulate a $SPX-only reference portfolio to get stats
prices_SPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
prices_SPX = prices_SPX[['$SPX']] # remove SPY
portvals_SPX = get_portfolio_value(prices_SPX, [1.0])
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_SPX)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "Data Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date)
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of $SPX: {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of $SPX: {}".format(cum_ret_SPX)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of $SPX: {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of $SPX: {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals[-1])
# Plot computed daily portfolio value
df_temp = pd.concat([portvals, prices_SPX['$SPX']], keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'], axis=1)
plot_normalized_data(df_temp, title)
def test_run():
"""Driver function."""
# Define input parameters
# Test 1
# start_date = '2011-01-05'
# end_date = '2011-01-20'
# orders_file = os.path.join(".\orders", "orders-short.csv")
# start_val = 1000000
# Test 2
# start_date = '2011-01-10'
# end_date = '2011-12-20'
# orders_file = os.path.join(".\orders", "orders.csv")
# start_val = 1000000
# Test 3
start_date = '2011-01-14'
end_date = '2011-12-14'
orders_file = os.path.join(".\orders", "orders2.csv")
start_val = 1000000
# Process orders
portvals = compute_portvals(start_date, end_date, orders_file, start_val)
if isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame):
portvals = portvals[portvals.columns[0]] # if a DataFrame is returned select the first column to get a Series
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
# Simulate a $SPX-only reference portfolio to get stats
prices_SPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
prices_SPX = prices_SPX[['$SPX']] # remove SPY
portvals_SPX = get_portfolio_value(prices_SPX, [1.0])
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_SPX)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "Data Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date)
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of $SPX: {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of $SPX: {}".format(cum_ret_SPX)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of $SPX: {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of $SPX: {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals[-1])
# Plot computed daily portfolio value
df_temp = pd.concat([portvals, prices_SPX['$SPX']], keys=['Portfolio', '$SPX'], axis=1)
plot_normalized_data(df_temp, title="Daily portfolio value and $SPX")
def testcode_marketsim(symbol = 'ML_based', base_dir = './orders/', \
sv = 100000, leverLimit = True, verbose = True):
### Use one of the order folders below ###
# of = "./orders/benchmark.csv"
# of = "./orders/bestPossibleStrategy.csv"
# of = "./orders/rule_based.csv"
# of = "./orders/ML_based.csv"
of = symbol_to_path(symbol, base_dir)
# sv = 100000 # starting value of portfolio, i.e. initial cash available
# Process orders
portVals = compute_portvals(of, sv, leverLimit)
if isinstance(portVals, pd.DataFrame):
portVals = portVals[
portVals.columns[0]] # just get the first column as a Series
else:
"warning, code did not return a DataFrame"
start_date = portVals.index[0]
end_date = portVals.index[-1]
pricesSPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
pricesSPX = pricesSPX['$SPX']
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portVals, \
daily_rf = 0, samples_per_year = 252)
cum_ret_SPY, avg_daily_ret_SPY, std_daily_ret_SPY, sharpe_ratio_SPY = \
get_portfolio_stats(pricesSPX, daily_rf = 0, samples_per_year = 252)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
if verbose == True:
dfTemp = pd.concat([portVals, pricesSPX],
axis=1,
keys=['portfolio', '$SPX'])
plot_normalized_data(dfTemp, '', '', '')
print "\nDate Range: {} to {}".format(start_date.date(),
end_date.date())
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of SPY : {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPY)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of SPY : {}".format(cum_ret_SPY)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of SPY : {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPY)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of SPY : {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPY)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portVals[-1])
return cum_ret, portVals
def error_alloc_vol(allocs, portfolio, start_val=1):
"""Function that takes allocations and portfolio and returns the
portfolio's sharpe ratio*(-1). Used with find_optimsed_alloc."""
port_final = get_portfolio_value(portfolio, allocs, start_val)
cum_ret, ave_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
port_final)
return cum_ret
def optimize_portfolio(start_date, end_date, symbols):
"""Simulate and optimize portfolio allocations."""
# Read in adjusted closing prices for given symbols, date range
dates = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)
prices_all = get_data(symbols, dates) # automatically adds SPY
prices = prices_all[symbols] # only portfolio symbols
prices_SPY = prices_all['SPY'] # only SPY, for comparison later
# Get optimal allocations
allocs = find_optimal_allocations(prices)
allocs = allocs / np.sum(allocs) # normalize allocations, if they don't sum to 1.0
# Get daily portfolio value (already normalized since we use default start_val=1.0)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
# Get portfolio statistics (note: std_daily_ret = volatility)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
# Print statistics
print "Start Date:", start_date
print "End Date:", end_date
print "Symbols:", symbols
print "Optimal allocations:", allocs
print "Sharpe Ratio:", sharpe_ratio
print "Volatility (stdev of daily returns):", std_daily_ret
print "Average Daily Return:", avg_daily_ret
print "Cumulative Return:", cum_ret
# Compare daily portfolio value with normalized SPY
normed_SPY = prices_SPY / prices_SPY.ix[0, :]
df_temp = pd.concat([port_val, normed_SPY], keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'], axis=1)
plot_data(df_temp, title="Daily Portfolio Value and SPY")
def optimize_portfolio(start_date, end_date, symbols):
"""Simulate and optimize portfolio allocations."""
# Read in adjusted closing prices for given symbols, date range
dates = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)
prices_all = get_data(symbols, dates) # automatically adds SPY
prices = prices_all[symbols] # only portfolio symbols
prices_SPY = prices_all['SPY'] # only SPY, for comparison later
# Get optimal allocations
allocs = find_optimal_allocations(prices)
allocs = allocs / np.sum(allocs) # normalize allocations, if they don't sum to 1.0
# Get daily portfolio value (already normalized since we use default start_val=1.0)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
# Get portfolio statistics (note: std_daily_ret = volatility)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
# Print statistics
print "Start Date:", start_date
print "End Date:", end_date
print "Symbols:", symbols
print "Optimal allocations:", allocs
print "Sharpe Ratio:", sharpe_ratio
print "Volatility (stdev of daily returns):", std_daily_ret
print "Average Daily Return:", avg_daily_ret
print "Cumulative Return:", cum_ret
# Compare daily portfolio value with normalized SPY
normed_SPY = prices_SPY / prices_SPY.ix[0, :]
df_temp = pd.concat([port_val, normed_SPY], keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'], axis=1)
plot_data(df_temp, title="Daily Portfolio Value and SPY")
def sharpe_func(allocs, prices):
"compute sharpe ratio given allocs and price data"
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, 1)
port_stats = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
sharpe_ratio = port_stats[3]
return (-1 * sharpe_ratio)
def f(X):
Y = get_portfolio_stats(get_portfolio_value(
prices, [X[0], X[1], X[2], X[3]], start_val=1),
daily_rf=0,
samples_per_year=252)[3] * -1
return Y
def find_sharpe_ratio(allocs, prices):
start_val = 1
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val)
daily_rf = 0
samples_per_year = 252
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val, daily_rf, samples_per_year)
return -sharpe_ratio
def get_negative_sharp_ratio(prices, allocs):
# Get daily portfolio value
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices=prices, allocs=allocs)
#plot_data(port_val, title="Daily Portfolio Value")
# Get portfolio statistics (note: std_daily_ret = volatility)
_, _, _, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return sharpe_ratio * -1
def statistics(weights):
global gprices
weights = np.array(weights)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(gprices, weights)
gret = port_val.sum()
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return np.array([gret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio])
def get_negative_sharp_ratio(prices, allocs):
# Get daily portfolio value
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices=prices, allocs=allocs)
#plot_data(port_val, title="Daily Portfolio Value")
# Get portfolio statistics (note: std_daily_ret = volatility)
_, _, _, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return sharpe_ratio * -1
def test_code():
### Use one of the order folders below ###
### of = "./orders/orders-leverage-3.csv" # verify from wiki
of = "./orders_mc2p1_spr2016/orders-12-modified.csv" #verify from saved pdf
sv = 1000000 # starting value of portfolio, i.e. initial cash available
# Process orders
portVals = compute_portvals(orders_file=of, start_val=sv)
if isinstance(portVals, pd.DataFrame):
portVals = portVals[
portVals.columns[0]] # just get the first column as a Series
else:
"warning, code did not return a DataFrame"
start_date = portVals.index[0]
end_date = portVals.index[-1]
pricesSPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
pricesSPX = pricesSPX['$SPX']
dfTemp = pd.concat([portVals, pricesSPX],
axis=1,
keys=['portfolio', '$SPX'])
plot_normalized_data(dfTemp, '', '', '')
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portVals, \
daily_rf = 0, samples_per_year = 252)
cum_ret_SPY, avg_daily_ret_SPY, std_daily_ret_SPY, sharpe_ratio_SPY = \
get_portfolio_stats(pricesSPX, daily_rf = 0, samples_per_year = 252)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "\nDate Range: {} to {}".format(start_date.date(), end_date.date())
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of SPY : {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPY)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of SPY : {}".format(cum_ret_SPY)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of SPY : {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPY)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of SPY : {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPY)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portVals[-1])
def negSharpeRatio(allocs, prices):
# Get daily portfolio value (already normalized since we use default start_val=1.0)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
# Get portfolio statistics (note: std_daily_ret = volatility)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
port_val)
return (sharpe_ratio * -1)
def test_run(start_date, end_date, orders, start_val,plot=True):
# Process orders
portvals = compute_portvals(start_date, end_date, orders, start_val)
if isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame):
portvals = portvals[portvals.columns[0]] # if a DataFrame is returned select the first column to get a Series
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
# Simulate a SPY-only reference portfolio to get stats
prices_SPX = get_data(['SPY'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
prices_SPX = prices_SPX[['SPY']] # remove SPY
portvals_SPX = get_portfolio_value(prices_SPX, [1.0])
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_SPX)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "Data Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date)
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of $SPX: {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of $SPX: {}".format(cum_ret_SPX)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of $SPX: {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of $SPX: {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals[-1])
print "Final SPY Value: {}".format(portvals_SPX[-1]*start_val)
# Plot computed daily portfolio value
if plot == True:
df_temp = pd.concat([portvals, prices_SPX['SPY']], keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'], axis=1)
plot_normalized_data(df_temp, title="Daily portfolio value", ylabel="Normalized Price")
def optimise_portfolio(sd, ed, syms, rfr=0.0, sf=252, gen_plot=True):
"""Find the optimal allocation for a given set of stocks, optimised for
volatility (standard deviation of daily return).
Parameters:
-----------
sd: A datetime object that represents the start date
ed: A datetime object that represents the end date
syms: A list of symbols that make up the portfolio
rfr: float - risk free rate, default to 0.0 per day.
sf: int - sampling frequency per year, default to 252 days
gen_plot: If True, create a plot named plot.png
Returns:
-------
allocs: A 1-d Numpy ndarray of allocations to the stocks. All the
allocations must be between 0.0 and 1.0 and they must sum to 1.0.
cr: Cumulative return
adr: Average daily return
sddr: Standard deviation of daily return
sr: Sharpe ratio
"""
#---------Build the portfolio---------------------------------
joint_df = get_port_SPY(sd, ed, syms) #syms + SPY df
port = joint_df[0] #portfolio df w/o SPY
SPY = joint_df[1] #SPY df - used to add to plot later
normed_SPY = normalise_data(SPY) #Normalise SPY
#Find the optimal allocations
optimised_alloc = find_optimised_alloc(port, error_alloc_vol)
#portfolio based on optimised allocations
optimised_port = get_portfolio_value(port, optimised_alloc)
#Get optimised portfolio's performance statistics
cum_ret, ave_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
optimised_port)
#----------Plot the normalised portfolio and SPY prices--------
if gen_plot == True:
df_temp = pd.concat([optimised_port, normed_SPY],
keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'],
axis=1)
plot_data(df_temp,
title='Daily portfolio value and SPY',
fontsize=2,
xlabel='Date',
ylabel='Normalised price')
return optimised_alloc, cum_ret, ave_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio
def sharpe_maximizer(allocs, prices):
"""Optimization function to be passed to the optimizer.
Parameters
----------
prices: daily prices for each stock in portfolio
allocs: Allocation for each portfolio component
Returns
-------
sharpe_ratio: Negative sharpe ratio so the minimizer finds the maximum
"""
#Get portfolio value
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
#Get portfolio statistics
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return -sharpe_ratio
def sharpe_maximizer(allocs, prices):
"""Optimization function to be passed to the optimizer.
Parameters
----------
prices: daily prices for each stock in portfolio
allocs: Allocation for each portfolio component
Returns
-------
sharpe_ratio: Negative sharpe ratio so the minimizer finds the maximum
"""
#Get portfolio value
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
#Get portfolio statistics
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
port_val)
return -sharpe_ratio
def try_get_portfolio_stats(self, portvals):
statsMethodExists = True
# First try from previous assignment file
try:
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
except AttributeError:
statsMethodExists = False
if statsMethodExists:
return statsMethodExists, cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio
# Otherwise try this function
try:
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = marketsim.assess_my_portfolio(portvals)
except AttributeError:
statsMethodExists = False
if statsMethodExists:
return statsMethodExists, cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio
return False, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
def test_orders(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(1133860.0, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(240, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = 1.21540888742
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.13386
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00720514136323
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.000551651296638
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg daily return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_orders_leverage_2(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders-leverage-2.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(1074650.0, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value is {} incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(37, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = 4.92529481246
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.07465
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00651837064888
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00202241842159
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg dailt return {} is incorrect. Expected".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_orders_leverage_1(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders-leverage-1.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(1050160.0, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value is {} incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(106, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = 1.19402406143
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.05016
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00647534272091
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.000487052265169
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg daily return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_orders_leverage_3(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders-leverage-3.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(1050160.0, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value is {} incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(141, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = 1.03455887842
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.05016
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00560508094997
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.000365289198877
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg dailt return {} is incorrect. Expected".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_orders2(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders2.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(1078752.6, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(232, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = 0.788982285751
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.0787526
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00711102080156
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.000353426354584
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg daily return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_orders_short(self):
portvals = marketsim.compute_portvals(orders_file = "./orders/orders-short.csv", start_val=1000000)
final_portfolio_value = portvals.ix[-1,:][0]
final_portfolio_dataframe_length = len(portvals)
self.assertAlmostEqual(998035.0, final_portfolio_value, 4, "Final portfolio value {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_value), delta=None)
self.assertEqual(11, final_portfolio_dataframe_length, "Final portfolio dataframe length {} is incorrect".format(final_portfolio_dataframe_length))
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
expected_value = -0.446948390642
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, sharpe_ratio[0], 4, "Sharpe ratio {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(sharpe_ratio[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = -0.001965
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, cum_ret[0], 4, "Cumulative return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(cum_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = 0.00634128215394
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, std_daily_ret[0], 4, "Standard deviation {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(std_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
expected_value = -0.000178539446839
self.assertAlmostEqual(expected_value, avg_daily_ret[0], 4, "Avg daily return {} is incorrect. Expected {}".format(avg_daily_ret[0], expected_value), delta=None)
'''
def test_compute_portvals(self):
orders_file = "./orders/orders.csv"
portvals = compute_portvals(orders_file)
# Check if portvals is a dataframe
self.assertTrue(isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame))
# Test portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
portvals, daily_rf=0.0, samples_per_year=252.0)
self.assertTrue(math.isclose(cum_ret, 0.108872698544, rel_tol=0.02),
"Cumulative return is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(avg_daily_ret, 0.000459098655493, rel_tol=0.02),
"Average daily return is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(std_daily_ret, 0.00730509916835, rel_tol=0.02),
"Standard deviation is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(sharpe_ratio, 0.997654521878, rel_tol=0.02),
"Sharpe ratio is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(portvals.iloc[-1, -1], 1106025.8065, rel_tol=0.02),
"Portfolio value is incorrect")
def optimize_portfolio(sd=dt.datetime(2008,1,1), ed=dt.datetime(2009,1,1), \
syms=['GOOG','AAPL','GLD','XOM'], gen_plot=False):
start_val = 1000000
daily_rf = 0
samples_per_year = 252
# Read in adjusted closing prices for given symbols, date range
dates = pd.date_range(sd, ed)
prices_all = get_data(syms, dates) # automatically adds SPY
prices = prices_all[syms] # only portfolio symbols
prices_SPY = prices_all['SPY'] # only SPY, for comparison later
# find the allocations for the optimal portfolio
allocGuess = np.ones(len(syms), dtype='float32') / len(syms)
setBnds = tuple([(0, 1) for x, y in enumerate(allocGuess)
]) #create tuple of (0,1) tuples
# 'constraints' below constrains allocations to sum to 1
# and 'setBnds' forces each allocation to lie in (0,1)
srMax = spo.minimize(cost, allocGuess, bounds = setBnds, \
constraints = ({ 'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda inputs: 1.0 - np.sum(inputs) }), \
args = (prices,start_val,daily_rf,samples_per_year,), \
method = 'SLSQP', options = {'disp': True})
allocs = srMax.x
portVal = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val)
cr, adr, sddr, sr = get_portfolio_stats(portVal, daily_rf,
samples_per_year)
# Compare daily portfolio value with SPY using a normalized plot
if gen_plot:
df_temp = pd.concat([portVal, prices_SPY],
keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'],
axis=1)
plot_normalized_data(df_temp, 'Optimized portfolio values', 'date', \
'normalized price')
return allocs, cr, adr, sddr, sr
def try_get_portfolio_stats(self, portvals):
statsMethodExists = True
# First try from previous assignment file
try:
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
portvals)
except AttributeError:
statsMethodExists = False
if statsMethodExists:
return statsMethodExists, cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio
# Otherwise try this function
try:
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = marketsim.assess_my_portfolio(
portvals)
except AttributeError:
statsMethodExists = False
if statsMethodExists:
return statsMethodExists, cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio
return False, 0., 0., 0., 0.
def test_compute_portvals(self):
orders_file = "./orders/orders2.csv"
portvals = compute_portvals(orders_file)
# Check if portvals is a dataframe
self.assertTrue(isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame))
# Test portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
portvals, daily_rf=0.0, samples_per_year=252.0)
self.assertTrue(math.isclose(cum_ret, 0.0538411196951, rel_tol=0.02),
"Cumulative return is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(avg_daily_ret, 0.000253483085898, rel_tol=0.02),
"Average daily return is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(std_daily_ret, 0.00728172910323, rel_tol=0.02),
"Standard deviation is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(sharpe_ratio, 0.552604907987, rel_tol=0.02),
"Sharpe ratio is incorrect")
self.assertTrue(
math.isclose(portvals.iloc[-1, -1], 1051088.0915, rel_tol=0.02),
"Portfolio value is incorrect")
def cost(allocs, prices, start_val, daily_rf, samples_per_year):
portVal = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val)
cr, adr, sddr, sr = get_portfolio_stats(portVal, daily_rf,
samples_per_year)
return -sr
def min_fun(x):
x = np.array(x)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, x)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return -sharpe_ratio
def min_sharpe_ratio(allocs):
'''Returns the sharpe ratio of the portfolio with weights.'''
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val=1)
sharpe = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)[3]
return -sharpe
def function_to_minimize(allocs, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val=1000000)
stats = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
sharpe_ratio = stats[3]
return -sharpe_ratio
def min_func_sharpe(weights, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, weights)
return -get_portfolio_stats(port_val)[3]
def sharpe_ratio(allocs,prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
return -1*sharpe_ratio
def statistics(weights):
weights = np.array(weights)
port_val = get_portfolio_value(df, weights, 1)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
port_val)
return sharpe_ratio
def min_func_sharpe(allocs, prices):
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, 1))
return (-1 * sharpe_ratio)
def test_run():
"""Driver function."""
# Define input parameters
start_date = '2007-12-31'
end_date = '2009-12-31'
orders_file = os.path.join("orders", "current_order.csv")
dates = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)
symbols = ['IBM']
df = get_data(symbols, dates, True)
window_size = 20
sma_band, upper_band, lower_band = get_bands(df['IBM'],window=window_size)
#+1 going out, -1 coming in
transition_array_upper = np.pad(np.diff(np.array(df['IBM'] > upper_band).astype(int)),
(1,0), 'constant', constant_values = (0,))
#+2 stock price going up,-2 stock price going down
transition_array_sma = np.pad(np.diff(np.array(df['IBM'] > sma_band).astype(int)*2),
(1,0), 'constant', constant_values = (0,))
#+3 stock price going up from lower_band,-3 stock price going down from lower_band
transition_array_lower = np.pad(np.diff(np.array(df['IBM'] > lower_band).astype(int)*3),
(1,0), 'constant', constant_values = (0,))
write_orders(df,transition_array_upper,transition_array_sma,transition_array_lower, orders_file)
ax = df['IBM'].plot(title="Bollinger Bands", label='IBM')
sma_band.plot(label='SMA', ax=ax, color = 'Goldenrod')
upper_band.plot(label='Upper Bollinger Band', ax=ax, color = 'Turquoise')
lower_band.plot(label='Lower Bollinger Band', ax=ax, color = 'Turquoise')
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Price")
ax.legend(loc='upper left')
plt.show()
portvals = compute_portvals(start_date, end_date, orders_file, 10000)
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
# Simulate a $SPX-only reference portfolio to get stats
prices_SPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
prices_SPX = prices_SPX[['$SPX']] # remove SPY
portvals_SPX = get_portfolio_value(prices_SPX, [1.0])
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_SPX)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "Data Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date)
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of $SPX: {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of $SPX: {}".format(cum_ret_SPX)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of $SPX: {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of $SPX: {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals[-1])
# Plot computed daily portfolio value
df_temp = pd.concat([portvals, prices_SPX['$SPX']], keys=['Portfolio', 'SPY'], axis=1)
plot_normalized_data(df_temp, title="Daily portfolio value")
def min_func_sharpe(allocs, prices):
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, 1))
return (-1*sharpe_ratio)
def sharp_func(allocs, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val=1)
sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)[3]
return sharpe_ratio * -1
def add_evidence(self, df_prices, symbol="IBM", start_val=100000):
"""Create a QLearner, and train it for trading.
Parameters:
df_prices: Data price dataframe
symbol: The stock symbol to act on
start_val: Start value of the portfolio which contains only the symbol
"""
# Get features and thresholds
df_features = self.get_features(df_prices['Adj Close'])
thresholds = self.get_thresholds(df_features, self.num_steps)
cum_returns = []
epochs = []
for epoch in range(1, self.epochs + 1):
# Initial position is holding nothing
position = self.CASH
# Create a series that captures order signals based on actions taken
orders = pd.Series(index=df_features.index)
# Iterate over the data by date
for day, date in enumerate(df_features.index):
# Get a state; add 1 to position so that states >= 0
state = self.discretize(df_features.loc[date], position + 1,
thresholds)
# On the first day, get an action without updating the Q-table
if date == df_features.index[0]:
action = self.q_learner.query_set_state(state)
# On other days, calculate the reward and update the Q-table
else:
prev_price = df_prices['Adj Close'].iloc[day - 1]
curr_price = df_prices['Adj Close'].loc[date]
reward = self.get_daily_reward(prev_price, curr_price,
position)
action = self.q_learner.query(state, reward)
# On the last day, close any open positions
if date == df_features.index[-1]:
new_pos = -position
else:
new_pos = self.get_position(position, action - 1)
# Add new_pos to orders
orders.loc[date] = new_pos
# Update current position
position += new_pos
df_trades = create_df_trades(orders, symbol, self.num_shares)
portvals = compute_portvals_single_symbol(
df_orders=df_trades,
symbol=symbol,
start_val=start_val,
commission=self.commission,
impact=self.impact)
cum_return = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)[0]
cum_returns.append(cum_return)
epochs.append(epoch)
if self.verbose:
print(epoch, cum_return)
# Check for convergence after running for at least 20 epochs
if epoch > 10:
# Stop if the cum_return doesn't improve for 10 epochs
if self.has_converged(cum_returns):
break
if self.verbose:
return plot_cum_return(epochs, cum_returns)
def find_negative_sharpe(allocs, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
port_val)
return sharpe_ratio * (-1.0)
def market_simulator(orders_file,
start_val=1000000,
daily_rf=0.0,
samples_per_year=252.0,
save_fig=False,
fig_name="plot.png"):
"""
This function takes in an orders file and execute trades based on the file
Parameters:
orders_file: The file whose orders will be execute
start_val: The starting cash in dollars
daily_rf: Daily risk-free rate, assuming it does not change
samples_per_year: Sampling frequency per year
Returns:
Print out final portfolio value of the portfolio, as well as Sharpe ratio,
cumulative return, average daily return and standard deviation of the portfolio and $SPX.
Plot a chart of the portfolio and $SPX performances
"""
# Process orders
portvals = compute_portvals(orders_file=orders_file, start_val=start_val)
if not isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame):
print("warning, code did not return a DataFrame")
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(
portvals, daily_rf=daily_rf, samples_per_year=samples_per_year)
# Get the stats for $SPX for the same date range for comparison
start_date = portvals.index.min()
end_date = portvals.index.max()
SPX_prices = get_data(["$SPX"],
pd.date_range(start_date, end_date),
addSPY=False).dropna()
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = \
get_portfolio_stats(SPX_prices, daily_rf=daily_rf, samples_per_year=samples_per_year)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print("Date Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date))
print()
print("Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio))
print("Sharpe Ratio of $SPX : {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX))
print()
print("Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret))
print("Cumulative Return of $SPX : {}".format(cum_ret_SPX))
print()
print("Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret))
print("Standard Deviation of $SPX : {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX))
print()
print("Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret))
print("Average Daily Return of $SPX : {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX))
print()
print("Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals.iloc[-1, -1]))
# Plot the data
plot_normalized_data(SPX_prices.join(portvals),
"Portfolio vs. SPX",
"Date",
"Normalized prices",
save_fig=save_fig,
fig_name=fig_name)
def error_optimal_allocations(allocs, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, 1)
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)
error = sharpe_ratio * -1
return error
def sharp_func(allocs, prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices, allocs, start_val=1)
sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)[3]
return sharpe_ratio * -1
def test_run():
"""Driver function."""
# Define input parameters
start_date = '2007-12-31'
end_date = '2009-12-31'
symbol = 'IBM'
dates = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)
prices_all = get_data([symbol], dates)
prices = prices_all[symbol]
# Compute Bollinger Bands
rm = get_rolling_mean(prices, window=20)
rstd = get_rolling_std(prices, window=20)
upper_band, lower_band = get_bollinger_bands(rm, rstd)
# Find Bollinger strategy orders
df_orders = get_orders_bollinger(symbol, prices, rm, upper_band,
lower_band, window=20)
# Plot raw values, rolling mean and Bollinger Bands
plot_data_bollinger(symbol, prices, rm, upper_band, lower_band, df_orders)
#orders_file = os.path.join(".\orders", "orders-short.csv")
with open('orders3.csv', 'wb') as outfile:
writer = csv.writer(outfile, delimiter=',')
writer.writerow(['Date', 'Symbol', 'Order', 'Shares'])
for i in range(len(df_orders)):
writer.writerow([df_orders.ix[i,0].strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
df_orders.ix[i,1], df_orders.ix[i,2], df_orders.ix[i,3]])
###########################################################################
orders_file = os.path.join("orders3.csv")
start_val = 10000
# Process orders
portvals = compute_portvals(start_date, end_date, orders_file, start_val)
if isinstance(portvals, pd.DataFrame):
portvals = portvals[portvals.columns[0]]
# Get portfolio stats
cum_ret, avg_daily_ret, std_daily_ret, sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)
# Simulate a $SPX-only reference portfolio to get stats
prices_SPX = get_data(['$SPX'], pd.date_range(start_date, end_date))
prices_SPX = prices_SPX[['$SPX']] # remove SPY
portvals_SPX = get_portfolio_value(prices_SPX, [1.0])
cum_ret_SPX, avg_daily_ret_SPX, std_daily_ret_SPX, sharpe_ratio_SPX = get_portfolio_stats(portvals_SPX)
# Compare portfolio against $SPX
print "Data Range: {} to {}".format(start_date, end_date)
print
print "Sharpe Ratio of Fund: {}".format(sharpe_ratio)
print "Sharpe Ratio of $SPX: {}".format(sharpe_ratio_SPX)
print
print "Cumulative Return of Fund: {}".format(cum_ret)
print "Cumulative Return of $SPX: {}".format(cum_ret_SPX)
print
print "Standard Deviation of Fund: {}".format(std_daily_ret)
print "Standard Deviation of $SPX: {}".format(std_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Average Daily Return of Fund: {}".format(avg_daily_ret)
print "Average Daily Return of $SPX: {}".format(avg_daily_ret_SPX)
print
print "Final Portfolio Value: {}".format(portvals[-1])
def add_evidence(self, symbol="IBM", start_date=dt.datetime(2008,1,1),
end_date=dt.datetime(2009,12,31), start_val = 10000):
"""Create a QLearner, and train it for trading.
Parameters:
symbol: The stock symbol to act on
start_date: A datetime object that represents the start date
end_date: A datetime object that represents the end date
start_val: Start value of the portfolio which contains only the symbol
"""
dates = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)
# Get adjusted close prices for symbol
df_prices = get_data([symbol], dates)
# Get features and thresholds
df_features = self.get_features(df_prices[symbol])
thresholds = self.get_thresholds(df_features, self.num_steps)
cum_returns = []
for epoch in range(1, self.epochs + 1):
# Initial position is holding nothing
position = self.CASH
# Create a series that captures order signals based on actions taken
orders = pd.Series(index=df_features.index)
# Iterate over the data by date
for day, date in enumerate(df_features.index):
# Get a state; add 1 to position so that states >= 0
state = self.discretize(df_features.loc[date],
position + 1, thresholds)
# On the first day, get an action without updating the Q-table
if date == df_features.index[0]:
# Get the first action based on nothing
# action = self.q_learner.act(state)
action = self.q_learner.act(state, 0.0, update=False)
# On other days, calculate the reward and update the Q-table
else:
prev_price = df_prices[symbol].iloc[day-1]
curr_price = df_prices[symbol].loc[date]
reward = self.get_daily_reward(prev_price,
curr_price, position)
action = self.q_learner.act(state, reward, update=True, done=date==df_features.index[-1])
# On the last day, close any open positions
if date == df_features.index[-1]:
new_pos = -position
else:
new_pos = self.get_position(position, action - 1)
# Add new_pos to orders
orders.loc[date] = new_pos
# Update current position
position += new_pos
self.q_learner.replay(batch_size=32)
df_trades = create_df_trades(orders, symbol, self.num_shares)
portvals = compute_portvals_single_symbol(df_orders=df_trades,
symbol=symbol,
start_val=start_val,
commission=self.commission,
impact=self.impact)
cum_return = get_portfolio_stats(portvals)[0]
cum_returns.append(cum_return)
if self.verbose:
print (epoch, cum_return)
# Check for convergence after running for at least 20 epochs
if epoch > 20:
# Stop if the cum_return doesn't improve for 10 epochs
if self.has_converged(cum_returns):
break
if self.verbose:
sns.heatmap(self.q_learner.Q, cmap='Blues')
plt.plot(cum_returns)
plt.xlabel("Epoch")
plt.ylabel("Cumulative return (%)")
plt.show()
def get_sharpe_ratio(allocs,prices):
port_val = get_portfolio_value(prices,allocs)
sharpe_ratio = get_portfolio_stats(port_val)[-1]
sharpe_ratio = -1.0 * sharpe_ratio
return sharpe_ratio