def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
if (type(X.ddims) != np.ndarray):
raise ValueError(
'Triangle must be expressed with development lags')
obj = copy.copy(X)
self.w_ = X.nan_triangle() if not self.drop else self._drop(X)
lag = {'M': 1, 'Q': 3, 'Y': 12}[X.development_grain]
if type(self.drop) is not list and self.drop is not None:
self.drop = [self.drop]
drop = [(item[0], item[1] - lag) for item in self.drop]
else:
drop = self.drop
obj = Development(n_periods=self.n_periods,
drop=drop).fit_transform(obj)
obj = Chainladder().fit(obj)
# Works for only a single triangle - can we generalize this
exp_incr_triangle = obj.full_expectation_.cum_to_incr() \
.values[0, 0, :, :X.shape[-1]]
exp_incr_triangle = np.nan_to_num(exp_incr_triangle) * \
obj.X_.nan_triangle()
self.design_matrix_ = self._get_design_matrix(X)
self.hat_ = self._get_hat(X, exp_incr_triangle)
self.resampled_triangles_, self.scale_ = \
self._get_simulation(X, exp_incr_triangle)
n_obs = np.nansum(self.w_)
n_origin_params = X.shape[2]
n_dev_params = X.shape[3] - 1
deg_free = n_obs - n_origin_params - n_dev_params
deg_free_adj_fctr = np.sqrt(n_obs / deg_free)
return self
def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
obj = copy.deepcopy(X)
obj = Development(n_periods=self.n_periods).fit_transform(obj)
obj = Chainladder().fit(obj)
# Works for only a single triangle - can we generalize this
exp_incr_triangle = obj.full_expectation_ \
.cum_to_incr().triangle[0, 0, :, :X.shape[-1]]
exp_incr_triangle = np.nan_to_num(exp_incr_triangle) * \
obj.X_.nan_triangle()
self.design_matrix_ = self._get_design_matrix(X)
self.hat_ = self._get_hat(X, exp_incr_triangle)
self.resampled_triangles_, self.scale_ = \
self._get_simulation(X, exp_incr_triangle)
return self
def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
backend = X.array_backend
if backend == "sparse":
X = X.set_backend("numpy")
else:
X = X.copy()
xp = X.get_array_module()
if X.shape[:2] != (1, 1):
raise ValueError(
"Only single index/column triangles are supported")
if type(X.ddims) != np.ndarray:
raise ValueError(
"Triangle must be expressed with development lags")
lag = {"M": 1, "Q": 3, "Y": 12}[X.development_grain]
obj = Development(
n_periods=self.n_periods,
drop=self.drop,
drop_high=self.drop_high,
drop_low=self.drop_low,
drop_valuation=self.drop_valuation,
).fit_transform(X)
self.w_ = obj.w_
obj = Chainladder().fit(obj)
# Works for only a single triangle - can we generalize this
exp_incr_triangle = obj.full_expectation_.cum_to_incr().values[
0, 0, :, :X.shape[-1]]
exp_incr_triangle = xp.nan_to_num(
exp_incr_triangle) * obj.X_.nan_triangle
self.design_matrix_ = self._get_design_matrix(X)
if self.hat_adj:
try:
self.hat_ = self._get_hat(X, exp_incr_triangle)
except:
warn("Could not compute hat matrix. Setting hat_adj to False")
self.had_adj = False
self.hat_ = None
else:
self.hat_ = None
self.resampled_triangles_, self.scale_ = self._get_simulation(
X, exp_incr_triangle)
n_obs = xp.nansum(self.w_)
n_origin_params = X.shape[2]
n_dev_params = X.shape[3] - 1
deg_free = n_obs - n_origin_params - n_dev_params
deg_free_adj_fctr = xp.sqrt(n_obs / deg_free)
return self
def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
xp = cp.get_array_module(X.values)
if X.shape[:2] != (1, 1):
raise ValueError(
'Only single index/column triangles are supported')
if (type(X.ddims) != np.ndarray):
raise ValueError(
'Triangle must be expressed with development lags')
obj = copy.copy(X)
lag = {'M': 1, 'Q': 3, 'Y': 12}[X.development_grain]
obj = Development(
n_periods=self.n_periods,
drop=self.drop,
drop_high=self.drop_high,
drop_low=self.drop_low,
drop_valuation=self.drop_valuation).fit_transform(obj)
self.w_ = obj.w_
obj = Chainladder().fit(obj)
# Works for only a single triangle - can we generalize this
exp_incr_triangle = obj.full_expectation_.cum_to_incr() \
.values[0, 0, :, :X.shape[-1]]
exp_incr_triangle = xp.nan_to_num(exp_incr_triangle) * \
obj.X_._nan_triangle()
self.design_matrix_ = self._get_design_matrix(X)
if self.hat_adj:
try:
self.hat_ = self._get_hat(X, exp_incr_triangle)
except:
warn('Could not compute hat matrix. Setting hat_adj to False')
self.had_adj = False
self.hat_ = None
else:
self.hat_ = None
self.resampled_triangles_, self.scale_ = \
self._get_simulation(X, exp_incr_triangle)
n_obs = xp.nansum(self.w_)
n_origin_params = X.shape[2]
n_dev_params = X.shape[3] - 1
deg_free = n_obs - n_origin_params - n_dev_params
deg_free_adj_fctr = np.sqrt(n_obs / deg_free)
return self
def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
backend = X.array_backend
if backend == 'sparse':
obj = X.set_backend('numpy')
else:
obj = copy.deepcopy(X)
xp = obj.get_array_module()
if not (self.paid_amount in X.columns and self.incurred_amount
in X.columns and self.reported_count in X.columns
and self.closed_count in X.columns):
raise ValueError(
'Must enter values valid columns for paid_amount, incurred_amount, reported_count and closed_count'
)
paid_amount = self.paid_amount
incurred_amount = self.incurred_amount
reported_count = self.reported_count
closed_count = self.closed_count
reported_count_estimator = self.reported_count_estimator
# Case reserve adequacy adjustment
open_count = obj[reported_count] - obj[closed_count]
avg_case = (obj[incurred_amount] - obj[paid_amount]) / open_count
adj_avg_case = (
avg_case.trend(1 / (1 + self.trend) - 1, axis='valuation') /
avg_case * avg_case[avg_case.valuation ==
avg_case.valuation_date].sum('origin'))
adj_incurred_amount = adj_avg_case * open_count + obj[paid_amount]
# Paid and closed claim adjustments
if reported_count_estimator is None:
reported_count_estimator = Chainladder()
reported_count_estimator.fit(obj[reported_count])
if reported_count_estimator.__class__.__name__ == 'Pipeline':
rep_cnt_ult = reported_count_estimator.named_steps[
reported_count_estimator.steps[-1][0]].ultimate_
else:
rep_cnt_ult = reported_count_estimator.ultimate_
disposal_rate = (obj[closed_count] / rep_cnt_ult)
adj_closed_clm = ((disposal_rate * 0 + 1) * disposal_rate[
disposal_rate.valuation == X.valuation_date].mean('origin') *
rep_cnt_ult)
adj_closed_clm.valuation_date = disposal_rate.valuation_date = X.valuation_date
# Two-period exponential regression
y = obj[paid_amount]
x = obj[closed_count]
x0 = x.values[..., :-1]
x1 = x.values[..., 1:]
y0 = xp.log(y.values[..., :-1])
y1 = xp.log(y.values[..., 1:])
b = ((x0*y0+x1*y1)/2-(x0+x1)/2*(y0+y1)/2) / \
((x0**2+x1**2)/2-((x0+x1)/2)**2)
a = np.exp((y0 + y1) / 2 - b * (x0 + x1) / 2)
# Need to Ignore warnings for NaN cells
with warnings.catch_warnings():
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
lookup = np.maximum(
xp.concatenate(
[(adj_closed_clm.values[..., i:i + 1] >
obj[closed_count].values).sum(axis=-1, keepdims=True)
for i in range(adj_closed_clm.shape[-1])],
axis=-1), 1) - 1
a = xp.concatenate(
[a[..., i, lookup[0, 0, i:i+1, :]]
for i in range(lookup.shape[-2])], -2) * \
adj_closed_clm.nan_triangle[None,None,...]
b = xp.concatenate(
[b[..., i, lookup[0, 0, i:i+1, :]]
for i in range(lookup.shape[-2])], -2) * \
adj_closed_clm.nan_triangle[None,None,...]
# Adjust paids
adj_paid_claims = adj_closed_clm * 0 + xp.exp(
adj_closed_clm.values * b) * a
adj_paid_claims = (
y[y.valuation == y.valuation_date] + adj_paid_claims[
adj_paid_claims.valuation < adj_paid_claims.valuation_date])
adjusted_triangle_ = copy.deepcopy(obj)
adjusted_triangle_[paid_amount] = adj_paid_claims
adjusted_triangle_[incurred_amount] = adj_incurred_amount
adjusted_triangle_[closed_count] = adj_closed_clm
adjusted_triangle_ = adjusted_triangle_[
adjusted_triangle_.valuation <= obj.valuation_date]
self.adjusted_triangle_ = adjusted_triangle_.set_backend(backend)
self.disposal_rate_ = disposal_rate.set_backend(backend)
self.a_ = a
self.b_ = b
return self
def fit(self, X, y=None, sample_weight=None):
if X.shape[1] > 1:
from chainladder.utils.utility_functions import concat
out = [
BootstrapODPSample(**self.get_params()).fit(X.iloc[:, i])
for i in range(X.shape[1])
]
xp = X.get_array_module(out[0].design_matrix_)
self.design_matrix_ = xp.concatenate(
[i.design_matrix_[None] for i in out], axis=0)
self.hat_ = xp.concatenate([i.hat_[None] for i in out], axis=0)
self.resampled_triangles_ = concat(
[i.resampled_triangles_ for i in out], axis=1)
self.scale_ = xp.array([i.scale_ for i in out])
self.w_ = out[0].w_
else:
backend = X.array_backend
if backend == "sparse":
X = X.set_backend("numpy")
else:
X = X.copy()
xp = X.get_array_module()
if len(X) != 1:
raise ValueError("Only single index triangles are supported")
if type(X.ddims) != np.ndarray:
raise ValueError(
"Triangle must be expressed with development lags")
lag = {"M": 1, "Q": 3, "Y": 12}[X.development_grain]
obj = Development(
n_periods=self.n_periods,
drop=self.drop,
drop_high=self.drop_high,
drop_low=self.drop_low,
drop_valuation=self.drop_valuation,
).fit_transform(X)
self.w_ = obj.w_
obj = Chainladder().fit(obj)
# Works for only a single triangle - can we generalize this
exp_incr_triangle = obj.full_expectation_.cum_to_incr().values[
0, 0, :, :X.shape[-1]]
exp_incr_triangle = xp.nan_to_num(
exp_incr_triangle) * obj.X_.nan_triangle
self.design_matrix_ = self._get_design_matrix(X)
if self.hat_adj:
try:
self.hat_ = self._get_hat(X, exp_incr_triangle)
except:
warn(
"Could not compute hat matrix. Setting hat_adj to False"
)
self.had_adj = False
self.hat_ = None
else:
self.hat_ = None
self.resampled_triangles_, self.scale_ = self._get_simulation(
X, exp_incr_triangle)
n_obs = xp.nansum(self.w_)
n_origin_params = X.shape[2]
n_dev_params = X.shape[3] - 1
deg_free = n_obs - n_origin_params - n_dev_params
deg_free_adj_fctr = xp.sqrt(n_obs / deg_free)
return self