def test_sim_only_x_and_t(self):
m = 20
x = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 3))
t = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 2))
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 1))
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x, t_sim=t, y_sim=y)
call_data_methods(data)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
def test_sim_only_x_only(self):
m = 20
x = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 3))
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 50))
y_ind = np.linspace(0, 1, 50)
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x, y_sim=y, y_ind_sim=y_ind)
call_data_methods(data, discrep=False)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
def test_sim_and_obs_noD_x_and_t(self):
m = 20
n = 10
x = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 3))
x2 = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (n, 3))
t = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 2))
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 50))
y_ind = np.linspace(0, 1, 50)
y2 = np.random.normal(size=(n, 20))
y_ind2 = np.linspace(0, 1, 20)
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x,
t_sim=t,
y_sim=y,
y_ind_sim=y_ind,
x_obs=x2,
y_obs=y2,
y_ind_obs=y_ind2)
call_data_methods(data, discrep=False)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
pred = SepiaFullPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_u_v()
pred.get_mu_sigma()
pred.get_ysim()
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True)
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True, std=True)
pred.get_yobs()
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True)
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True, std=True)
def test_sim_and_obs_noD_t_only_cat(self):
m = 20
n = 10
t = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 3)), 1 + np.random.choice(3, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 50))
y_ind = np.linspace(0, 1, 50)
y2 = np.random.normal(size=(n, 20))
y_ind2 = np.linspace(0, 1, 20)
cat_inds = [0, 0, 0, 3]
data = SepiaData(t_sim=t,
y_sim=y,
y_ind_sim=y_ind,
y_obs=y2,
y_ind_obs=y_ind2,
t_cat_ind=cat_inds)
call_data_methods(data, discrep=False)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
pred = SepiaFullPrediction(t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_u_v()
pred.get_mu_sigma()
pred.get_ysim()
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True)
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True, std=True)
pred.get_yobs()
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True)
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True, std=True)
def test_sim_only_x_and_t_cat(self):
m = 20
x = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 3)), 1 + np.random.choice(3, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
t = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 2)), 1 + np.random.choice(4, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
x_cat_ind = [0, 0, 0, 3]
t_cat_ind = [0, 0, 4]
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 50))
y_ind = np.linspace(0, 1, 50)
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x,
t_sim=t,
x_cat_ind=x_cat_ind,
t_cat_ind=t_cat_ind,
y_sim=y,
y_ind_sim=y_ind)
call_data_methods(data, discrep=False)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
def test_sim_and_obs_t_only(self):
m = 20
n = 10
t = np.random.uniform(-1, 3, (m, 3))
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 1))
y2 = np.random.normal(size=(n, 1))
data = SepiaData(t_sim=t, y_sim=y, y_obs=y2)
call_data_methods(data)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
pred = SepiaFullPrediction(t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_u_v()
pred.get_mu_sigma()
pred.get_ysim()
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True)
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True, std=True)
pred.get_yobs()
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True)
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True, std=True)
def test_multivariate_sim_and_obs_mcmc_thetacon(self):
"""
Tests mcmc for multivariate sim and obs model with theta constraint function
"""
print(
'Testing multivariate sim and obs SepiaMCMC w theta constraint...',
flush=True)
data = self.multi_sim_and_obs_data
def fcon(x):
return (x[:, 0] + x[:, 1]) < 0.8
theta_init = np.array([[0.2, 0.3, 0.5]])
model = SepiaModel(data, theta_init=theta_init, theta_fcon=fcon)
model.tune_step_sizes(50, 10)
model.do_mcmc(100)
samples = model.get_samples()
self.assertTrue(
np.all(samples['theta'][:, 0] + samples['theta'][:, 1] < 0.8))
def test_sim_only_x_only_cat(self):
m = 20
x = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 3)), 1 + np.random.choice(3, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 1))
cat_inds = [0, 0, 0, 3]
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x, y_sim=y, x_cat_ind=cat_inds)
call_data_methods(data)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
data = SepiaData(t_sim=design,
y_sim=y_sim,
y_ind_sim=y_ind,
y_obs=y_obs,
y_ind_obs=y_ind)
data.standardize_y()
data.transform_xt()
data.create_K_basis(n_features - 1)
print(data)
# Setup model
# We have a known observation error
Sigy = np.diag(
np.squeeze(
(0.01 * np.ones(n_features) * y_obs) / data.sim_data.orig_y_sd**2))
model = SepiaModel(data, Sigy)
# Modify priors to match Matlab
model.params.lamWs.prior.bounds[1] = np.inf
model.params.lamWs.prior.params = [np.ones((1, 11)), np.zeros((1, 11))]
# Do mcmc
model.tune_step_sizes(100, 25)
model.do_mcmc(10000)
samples_dict = model.get_samples()
with open('data/sepia_mcmc_samples1-5000.pkl', 'wb') as f:
pickle.dump(samples_dict, f)
with open('data/sepia_model.pkl', 'wb') as f:
pickle.dump(model, f)
print('Multi-process worker mcmc and samples return took %f s' %
(tref2 - tref1))
print(' with overhead of %f s' % ((tref1 - tref0) +
(tref3 - tref2)))
print(' total = %f s' % (tref3 - tref0))
#
# The samples from the parallel chains are in the Sepia model object now
# Can proceed with the Sepia model object as normal
#
# Compare the trace plots for qualitative equivalence of samples
# between the "regular" model object and the model object constituted with samples
samples_dict_ref = model_ref.get_samples()
samples_dict = model.get_samples()
theta_names = ['C']
mcmc_trace_ref = SepiaPlot.mcmc_trace(samples_dict_ref, theta_names)
mcmc_trace = SepiaPlot.mcmc_trace(samples_dict, theta_names)
mcmc_trace_ref.show()
mcmc_trace.show()
p_stats_ref = SepiaPlot.param_stats(samples_dict_ref,
theta_names=theta_names,
q1=.05,
q2=.95,
digits=4)
def test_sim_and_obs_x_and_t_cat(self):
m = 20
n = 10
x = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 3)), 1 + np.random.choice(3, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
x2 = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(n, 3)), 1 + np.random.choice(3, size=(n, 1))
],
axis=1)
t = np.concatenate([
np.random.uniform(-1, 3,
(m, 2)), 1 + np.random.choice(4, size=(m, 1))
],
axis=1)
y = np.random.normal(size=(m, 50))
y_ind = np.linspace(0, 1, 50)
y2 = np.random.normal(size=(n, 20))
y_ind2 = np.linspace(0, 1, 20)
x_cat_ind = [0, 0, 0, 3]
t_cat_ind = [0, 0, 4]
data = SepiaData(x_sim=x,
t_sim=t,
x_cat_ind=x_cat_ind,
t_cat_ind=t_cat_ind,
y_sim=y,
y_ind_sim=y_ind,
x_obs=x2,
y_obs=y2,
y_ind_obs=y_ind2)
call_data_methods(data)
model = SepiaModel(data)
call_model_methods(model)
call_plot_functions(model)
samples = model.get_samples()
pred = SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_w()
pred.get_y()
pred.get_y(std=True)
pred.get_mu_sigma()
xpred = SepiaXvalEmulatorPrediction(samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
xpred.get_w()
xpred.get_y()
xpred.get_y(std=True)
xpred.get_mu_sigma()
pred = SepiaFullPrediction(x_pred=x,
t_pred=t,
samples=samples,
model=model,
addResidVar=True,
storeMuSigma=True)
pred.get_u_v()
pred.get_mu_sigma()
pred.get_ysim()
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True)
pred.get_ysim(as_obs=True, std=True)
pred.get_yobs()
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True)
pred.get_yobs(as_obs=True, std=True)
pred.get_discrepancy()
pred.get_discrepancy(as_obs=True)
pred.get_discrepancy(as_obs=True, std=True)
def test_full_setup_LL_pred(self):
# Set up and check calibration model
x_obs = np.ones((3, 2)) * np.array([0.5, 0.75, 0.25]).reshape((-1, 1))
y_obs = np.block([[-0.1, 0.1], [-0.2, 0.3], [0.1, 0]])
# augment to also test more than scalar dimensions in x and t
x_sim_cal = np.hstack((0.5 * np.ones(
(self.x_sim.shape[0], 1)), self.x_sim[:, :1]))
t_sim_cal = self.x_sim[:, 1:]
xt_sim_sep = [np.array(0.5).reshape(1, 1)] + self.x_sim_kron
y_sim_std = (self.y_sim - np.mean(self.y_sim, axis=0).reshape(
1, -1)) / np.std(self.y_sim, axis=0, ddof=1).reshape(1, -1)
dc = SepiaData(x_sim=x_sim_cal,
t_sim=t_sim_cal,
y_sim=y_sim_std,
x_obs=x_obs,
y_obs=y_obs,
y_ind_sim=self.y_ind_sim,
y_ind_obs=self.y_ind_sim)
dc.create_K_basis(K=np.eye(2))
dc.create_D_basis(D_sim=np.eye(2), D_obs=np.eye(2))
dc.transform_xt(x_notrans=True, t_notrans=True)
dc.standardize_y(y_mean=0, y_sd=1)
print(dc)
cmod = SepiaModel(dc)
print('Calibration model LL=%f' % compute_log_lik(cmod))
kdc = SepiaData(xt_sim_sep=xt_sim_sep,
y_sim=y_sim_std,
x_obs=x_obs,
y_obs=y_obs,
y_ind_sim=self.y_ind_sim,
y_ind_obs=self.y_ind_sim)
kdc.create_K_basis(K=np.eye(2))
kdc.create_D_basis(D_sim=np.eye(2), D_obs=np.eye(2))
kdc.transform_xt(x_notrans=True, t_notrans=True)
kdc.standardize_y(y_mean=0, y_sd=1)
print(kdc)
kcmod = SepiaModel(kdc)
print('Calibration Sep model LL=%f' % compute_log_lik(kcmod))
self.assertAlmostEqual(compute_log_lik(cmod),
compute_log_lik(kcmod),
places=5)
print(
'Running MCMC on Calibration model in Sep pred mode, regular design'
)
np.random.seed(42)
t1 = time()
cmod.do_mcmc(10)
print('sampling time %f' % (time() - t1))
csamp = cmod.get_samples(sampleset=[cmod.get_last_sample_ind()])
cpred = SepiaFullPrediction(mode='Sep',
model=cmod,
samples=csamp,
storeMuSigma=True,
x_pred=np.array([0.5, 0.5]).reshape(
(1, -1)))
print(cpred.get_ysim())
csm, css = cpred.get_mu_sigma()
print(csm)
print(css)
print(
'Running MCMC on Calibration model in Sep pred mode, separable design'
)
np.random.seed(42)
t1 = time()
kcmod.do_mcmc(10)
print('sampling time %f' % (time() - t1))
kcsamp = kcmod.get_samples(sampleset=[kcmod.get_last_sample_ind()])
kcpred = SepiaFullPrediction(mode='Sep',
model=kcmod,
samples=kcsamp,
storeMuSigma=True,
x_pred=np.array([0.5, 0.5]).reshape(
(1, -1)))
print(kcpred.get_ysim())
kcsm, kcss = kcpred.get_mu_sigma()
print(kcsm)
print(kcss)
print('testing max difference which is %g' % np.max(abs(csm - kcsm)))
self.assertAlmostEqual(0, np.max(abs(csm - kcsm)))
print('testing max difference which is %g' % np.max(abs(css - kcss)))
self.assertAlmostEqual(0, np.max(abs(css - kcss)))
###### Timing for predictions
test_x_pred = np.random.rand(10, 2)
csamp = cmod.get_samples()
t1 = time()
cpred0 = SepiaFullPrediction(mode='notSep',
model=cmod,
samples=csamp,
storeMuSigma=True,
x_pred=test_x_pred)
print('predict time non-Sep in non-Sep mode %f' % (time() - t1))
t1 = time()
cpred = SepiaFullPrediction(mode='Sep',
model=cmod,
samples=csamp,
storeMuSigma=True,
x_pred=test_x_pred)
print('predict time non-sep in Sep mode %f' % (time() - t1))
kcsamp = kcmod.get_samples()
t1 = time()
kcpred = SepiaFullPrediction(mode='Sep',
model=kcmod,
samples=kcsamp,
storeMuSigma=True,
x_pred=test_x_pred)
print('predict time Sep %f' % (time() - t1))
pass
for j in range(param_shape):
plt.subplot(nrow, ncol, j + 1)
plt.hist(samples_dict[k][:, j])
plt.xlabel(k)
plt.show()
#%% Emulator-only predictions
model.verbose=True
from sepia.SepiaPredict import SepiaEmulatorPrediction
x_pred=np.linspace(0,1,9).reshape((9,1))
# make t_pred most like the calibrated thetas for comparison to below
t_pred=np.tile(np.array([1,0,1]).reshape(1,3),(9,1))
pred_samples=model.get_samples(numsamples=7)
pred=SepiaEmulatorPrediction(x_pred=x_pred, samples=pred_samples, model=model, t_pred=t_pred)
predw=pred.get_w()
plt.figure()
plt.plot(np.mean(predw,0).T)
plt.xlabel('PCA weights w')
plt.ylabel('w value for each predicted x \n mean over samples')
plt.show()
predystd=pred.get_y(std=True)
plt.figure()
plt.plot(model.data.sim_data.y_ind,np.mean(predystd,0).T)
plt.xlabel('native data space y')
plt.ylabel('standardized predicted y for each predicted x \n mean over samples')
plt.show()
data = SepiaData(x_sim=xt_sim[:, 0][:, None], t_sim=xt_sim[:, 1][:, None], y_sim=y_sim, y_ind_sim=y_ind_sim,
x_obs=x_obs, y_obs=y_obs, y_ind_obs=y_ind_obs)
data.standardize_y()
data.transform_xt()
data.create_K_basis(n_pc=n_pc)
data.create_D_basis(D_obs=matfile['Dobs'].T)
print(data)
np.random.seed(int(seed))
model = SepiaModel(data)
if lamWOs_init > 0:
model.params.lamWOs.val = np.array([[lamWOs_init]])
model.do_mcmc(nburn + nsamp)
np.random.seed(seed)
psamps = model.get_samples(sampleset=range(50), flat=True)
@timeit
def do_wPred():
for _ in range(10):
pred = wPred([0.5], psamps, model.num, model.data, returnMuSigma=True, addResidVar=True, returnRlz=True)
@timeit
def do_uvPred():
for _ in range(50):
pred = uvPred([0.5], psamps, model.num, model.data, returnMuSigma=True, useAltW=False)
print('\nuvPred x10')
do_uvPred()
print('wPred x10')
