def main_evaluate_different_years(year):
import pickle
Y, D, P, Tf, Gd = extract_raw_samples(year, crime_t=['total'])
# use hourly crime rate as label
# Yh = pickle.load(open("chicago-hourly-crime-{0}.pickle".format(year)))
# Yh = Yh / D[:,0] * 10000
# use average income as label
# header, income = retrieve_income_features()
# Yh = np.repeat(income[:,0,None], 24, axis=1)
# Yh = Yh.T
# use average house price as label
Yh = retrieve_averge_house_price()
Yh = np.repeat(Yh[:,None], 24, axis=1)
Yh = Yh.T
assert Yh.shape == (24, N)
MAE =[]
MRE = []
for h in range(24):
Tf = getTaxiFlow(filename="/taxi-CA-h{0}.matrix".format(h))
mae, mre = leaveOneOut_error(Yh[h,:].reshape((N,1)), D, P, Tf, Yh[h,:].reshape((N,1)), Gd,
Yh[h,:].reshape((N,1)), features=['demo', 'poi'],
taxi_norm="bydestination")
print h, mae, mre
MAE.append(mae)
MRE.append(mre)
print year, h, np.mean(MAE), np.mean(MRE)
with open("kdd16-eval-{0}.pickle".format(year), "w") as fout:
pickle.dump(MAE, fout)
pickle.dump(MRE, fout)
def NB_coefficients(year=2010):
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination")
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year)
C = generate_corina_features()
D = C[1]
popul = C[1][:,0].reshape(C[1].shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
f = np.concatenate( (D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1 )
mms = MinMaxScaler(copy=False)
mms.fit(f)
mms.transform(f)
header = C[0] + [ 'spatiallag', 'taxiflow'] + \
['POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel', 'POI arts entertainment',
'POI outdoors recreation', 'POI education', 'POI nightlife',
'POI professional', 'POI shops', 'POI event']
df = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=header)
np.savetxt("Y.csv", Y, delimiter=",")
df.to_csv("f.csv", sep=",", index=False)
# NB permute
nbres = subprocess.check_output( ['Rscript', 'nbr_eval.R', 'ca', 'coefficient'] )
print nbres
ls = nbres.strip().split(" ")
coef = [float(e) for e in ls]
print coef
return coef, header
def leaveOneOut_Input_v4(leaveOut):
"""
Generate observation matrix and vectors
Y, F
Those observations are trimed for the leave-one-out evaluation. Therefore, the leaveOut
indicates the CA id to be left out, ranging from 1-77
"""
des, X = generate_corina_features('ca')
X = np.delete(X, leaveOut - 1, 0)
popul = X[:, 0].reshape(X.shape[0], 1)
pvt = X[:, 2] # poverty index of each CA
# poi_cnt = getFourSquareCount(leaveOut)
# poi_cnt = np.divide(poi_cnt, popul) * 10000
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(leaveOut)
poi_dist = np.divide(poi_dist, popul) * 10000
F_dist = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca(leaveOut=leaveOut)
F_flow = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=2010,
lehd_type=0,
region='ca',
leaveOut=leaveOut)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(leaveOut=leaveOut)
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2010, col=['total'], region='ca')
Y = np.delete(Y, leaveOut - 1, 0)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
F = []
n = Y.size
Yd = []
for i in range(n):
for j in range(n):
if i != j:
wij = np.array([
F_dist[i, j],
actualFlowInteraction(pvt[i], pvt[j]) * F_flow[i, j],
F_taxi[i, j]
])
# fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], poi_dist[i], wij * Y[j][0]), 0)
fij = np.concatenate((X[i], wij * Y[j][0]), 0)
F.append(fij)
Yd.append(Y[i])
F = np.array(F)
np.append(F, np.ones((F.shape[0], 1)), axis=1)
Yd = np.array(Yd)
Yd.resize((Yd.size, 1))
return Yd, F
def leaveOneOut_Input_v4( leaveOut ):
"""
Generate observation matrix and vectors
Y, F
Those observations are trimed for the leave-one-out evaluation. Therefore, the leaveOut
indicates the CA id to be left out, ranging from 1-77
"""
des, X = generate_corina_features('ca')
X = np.delete(X, leaveOut-1, 0)
popul = X[:,0].reshape(X.shape[0],1)
pvt = X[:,2] # poverty index of each CA
# poi_cnt = getFourSquareCount(leaveOut)
# poi_cnt = np.divide(poi_cnt, popul) * 10000
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(leaveOut)
poi_dist = np.divide(poi_dist, popul) * 10000
F_dist = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca( leaveOut=leaveOut )
F_flow = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=2010, lehd_type=0, region='ca', leaveOut=leaveOut)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(leaveOut = leaveOut)
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2010, col=['total'], region='ca')
Y = np.delete(Y, leaveOut-1, 0)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
F = []
n = Y.size
Yd = []
for i in range(n):
for j in range(n):
if i != j:
wij = np.array( [F_dist[i,j],
actualFlowInteraction(pvt[i], pvt[j]) * F_flow[i,j],
F_taxi[i,j] ])
# fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], poi_dist[i], wij * Y[j][0]), 0)
fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], wij * Y[j][0]), 0)
F.append(fij)
Yd.append(Y[i])
F = np.array(F)
np.append(F, np.ones( (F.shape[0], 1) ), axis=1)
Yd = np.array(Yd)
Yd.resize( (Yd.size, 1) )
return Yd, F
def correlation_taxiflow_crime(flowPercentage=True, crimeRate=True):
"""
correlation between taxi flow and crime
"""
s = getTaxiFlow(usePercentage=flowPercentage)
Y = retrieve_crime_count(2010, region='ca')
if crimeRate:
h, D = generate_corina_features(region='ca')
popul = D[:,0].reshape(D.shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f1 = np.dot(s, Y)
r = np.hstack( (f1, Y) )
r = np.transpose(r)
pcc = np.corrcoef(r)
print pcc
def generateInput_v4(fout=False):
"""
Generate complete observation matrix
"""
des, X = generate_corina_features('ca')
pvt = X[:, 2] # poverty index of each CA
popul = X[:, 0].reshape(X.shape[0], 1)
# poi_cnt = getFourSquareCount()
# poi_cnt = np.divide(poi_cnt, popul) * 10000
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution()
poi_dist = np.divide(poi_dist, popul) * 10000
F_dist = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
F_flow = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=2010, lehd_type=0, region='ca')
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2010, col=['total'], region='ca')
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
F = []
n = Y.size
for i in range(n):
for j in range(n):
if i != j:
wij = np.array([
F_dist[i, j],
actualFlowInteraction(pvt[i], pvt[j]) * F_flow[i, j],
F_taxi[i, j]
])
# fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], poi_dist[i], wij * Y[j][0]) , 0)
fij = np.concatenate((X[i], wij * Y[j, 0]), 0)
F.append(fij)
F = np.array(F)
np.append(F, np.ones((F.shape[0], 1)), axis=1)
if fout:
np.savetxt('../matlab/F.csv', F, delimiter=',')
return Y, F
def extract_raw_samples(year=2010, crime_t=['total'], crime_rate=True):
"""
Extract all samples with raw labels and features. Return None if the
corresponding feature is not selected.
This function is called once only to avoid unnecessary disk I/O.
Input:
year - which year to study
crime_t - crime types of interest, e.g. 'total'
crime_rate - predict crime_rate or not (count)
Output:
Y - crime rate / count
D - demo feature
P - POI feature
Tf - taxi flow matrix (count)
Gd - geo weight matrix
"""
# Crime count
y_cnt = retrieve_crime_count(year, col = crime_t)
# Crime rate / count
demo = generate_corina_features()
population = demo[1][:,0].reshape(demo[1].shape[0], 1)
Y = y_cnt / population * 10000 if crime_rate else y_cnt
assert(Y.shape == (77,1))
# Demo features
D = demo[1]
# POI features
P = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
# Taxi flow matrix
Tf = getTaxiFlow(normalization="none")
# Geo weight matrix
Gd = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
return Y, D, P, Tf, Gd
def extract_raw_samples(year=2010, crime_t=['total'], crime_rate=True):
"""
Extract all samples with raw labels and features. Return None if the
corresponding feature is not selected.
This function is called once only to avoid unnecessary disk I/O.
Input:
year - which year to study
crime_t - crime types of interest, e.g. 'total'
crime_rate - predict crime_rate or not (count)
Output:
Y - crime rate / count
D - demo feature
P - POI feature
Tf - taxi flow matrix (count)
Gd - geo weight matrix
"""
# Crime count
y_cnt = retrieve_crime_count(year, col = crime_t)
# Crime rate / count
demo = generate_corina_features()
population = demo[1][:,0].reshape(demo[1].shape[0], 1)
Y = y_cnt / population * 10000 if crime_rate else y_cnt
assert(Y.shape == (N,1))
# Demo features
D = demo[1]
# POI features
P = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
# Taxi flow matrix
Tf = getTaxiFlow(normalization="none")
# Geo weight matrix
Gd = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
return Y, D, P, Tf, Gd
def prepare_features(features=["poi", "taxi", "demos", "spatiallag"],
leaveOneOut=-1):
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2013)
Y = Y.reshape((-1, 1))
if leaveOneOut > 0:
Y = np.delete(Y, leaveOneOut - 1, 0)
if "poi" in features:
poi_dist = getFourSquareCount(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
if "taxi" in features:
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(leaveOut=leaveOneOut, normalization="bysource")
if "demos" in features:
C = generate_corina_features(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
demos = [
'total population', 'population density', 'disadvantage index',
'residential stability', 'ethnic diversity'
]
demos_idx = [C[0].index(ele) for ele in demos]
D = C[1][:, demos_idx]
popul = C[1][:, 0].reshape(C[1].shape[0], 1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
if "spatiallag" in features:
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
f = np.concatenate((f, D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1)
S = np.zeros(W2.shape)
S[W2 > 0] = 1
# S = np.ones(W2.shape)
return Y, f, S
def generateInput_v4(fout=False):
"""
Generate complete observation matrix
"""
des, X = generate_corina_features('ca')
pvt = X[:,2] # poverty index of each CA
popul = X[:,0].reshape(X.shape[0],1)
# poi_cnt = getFourSquareCount()
# poi_cnt = np.divide(poi_cnt, popul) * 10000
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution()
poi_dist = np.divide(poi_dist, popul) * 10000
F_dist = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
F_flow = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=2010, lehd_type=0, region='ca')
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2010, col=['total'], region='ca')
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
F = []
n = Y.size
for i in range(n):
for j in range(n):
if i != j:
wij = np.array( [F_dist[i,j],
actualFlowInteraction(pvt[i], pvt[j]) * F_flow[i,j],
F_taxi[i,j] ] )
# fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], poi_dist[i], wij * Y[j][0]) , 0)
fij = np.concatenate( (X[i], wij * Y[j,0]) , 0)
F.append(fij)
F = np.array(F)
np.append(F, np.ones( (F.shape[0], 1) ), axis=1)
if fout:
np.savetxt('../matlab/F.csv', F, delimiter=',')
return Y, F
def prepare_features(features=["poi", "taxi", "demos", "spatiallag"], leaveOneOut=-1):
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2013)
Y = Y.reshape((-1,1))
if leaveOneOut > 0:
Y = np.delete(Y, leaveOneOut-1, 0)
if "poi" in features:
poi_dist = getFourSquareCount(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
if "taxi" in features:
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(leaveOut=leaveOneOut, normalization="bysource")
if "demos" in features:
C = generate_corina_features(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
demos = ['total population', 'population density', 'disadvantage index',
'residential stability', 'ethnic diversity']
demos_idx = [C[0].index(ele) for ele in demos]
D = C[1][:,demos_idx]
popul = C[1][:,0].reshape(C[1].shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
if "spatiallag" in features:
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca(leaveOut=leaveOneOut)
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
f = np.concatenate( (f, D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1 )
S = np.zeros(W2.shape)
S[W2 > 0] = 1
# S = np.ones(W2.shape)
return Y, f, S
def line_taxiflow_crime():
s = getTaxiFlow(normalization='bydestination')
Y = retrieve_crime_count(2010, col=['total'], region='ca')
h, D = generate_corina_features(region='ca')
popul = D[:,0].reshape(D.shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f1 = np.dot(s, Y)
plt.figure()
plt.scatter(f1, Y)
plt.axis([0, 6000, 0, 6000])
idx = [31, 46]
sf1 = f1[idx]
sY = Y[idx]
plt.scatter(sf1, sY, edgecolors='red', s=50, linewidths=2 )
plt.figtext(0.33, 0.8, '#32', fontsize='large')
plt.figtext(0.75, 0.34, '#47', fontsize='large')
plt.xlabel('Hyperlink by taxi flow feature value', fontsize='x-large')
plt.ylabel('Crime rate', fontsize='x-large')
plt.savefig('taxi-flow-percent.pdf', format='pdf')
return f1
def coefficients_pvalue(lagsFlag,
tempflag="templag",
selfflow="selfflow",
itersN="10",
exposure="exposure",
year=2010,
lehdType="total",
crimeType='total'):
"""Return the pvalue of Negative Binomial model coefficients.
Permutation test + leave-one-out evaluation
Retrieve leave-one-out error distribution. To determine the p-value
The model to be evaluated is the NB model.
The features used in this model only includes spatial lag, scial lag, and demographics.
Keyword arguments:
lehdType -- the type of LEHD flow (default "total", alternative "lowincome")
crimeType -- the type of predicated crime (default "violent", alternative "total")
exposure -- exposure or noexposure
lagsFlag -- social lag, spatial lag, socai lag disadv, spatial lag disadv
"""
C = generate_corina_features('ca')
demo = pd.DataFrame(data=C[1], columns=C[0], dtype="float")
W1 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
# the LEHD type
if lehdType == "lowincome":
W2 = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=year,
lehd_type=4,
region='ca',
normalization='none')
elif lehdType == "total":
W2 = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=year,
lehd_type=0,
region='ca',
normalization='none')
elif lehdType == "taxi":
W2 = getTaxiFlow(normalization="none")
if selfflow == 'selfflow':
s = [W2[i, i] for i in range(W2.shape[0])]
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-selfflow.csv", s)
for i in range(W2.shape[0]):
W2[i, i] = 0
# the predicated crime type
violentCrime = [
'HOMICIDE', 'CRIM SEXUAL ASSAULT', 'BATTERY', 'ROBBERY', 'ARSON',
'DOMESTIC VIOLENCE', 'ASSAULT'
]
if crimeType == 'total':
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year, col=['total'], region='ca')
if tempflag == "templag":
ystart = (year - 3) if year - 3 >= 2003 else 2003
tlag = []
for ytmp in range(ystart, year):
yt = retrieve_crime_count(year=ytmp,
col=['total'],
region='ca')
tlag.append(yt)
yt = np.mean(tlag, axis=0)
assert yt.shape == Y.shape
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-templag.csv", yt)
elif crimeType == 'violent':
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year, col=violentCrime, region='ca')
if tempflag == "templag":
ystart = (year - 3) if year - 3 >= 2003 else 2003
tlag = []
for ytmp in range(ystart, year):
yt = retrieve_crime_count(year=ytmp,
col=violentCrime,
region='ca')
tlag.append(yt)
yt = np.mean(tlag, axis=0)
assert yt.shape == Y.shape
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-templag.csv", yt)
demo.to_csv(here + "/../R/pvalue-demo.csv", index=False)
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-spatiallag.csv", W1, delimiter=",")
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-sociallag.csv", W2, delimiter=",")
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-crime.csv", Y)
# use a multiprocess Pool to run subprocess in parallel
socialNorm = ['bydestination', 'bysource', 'bypair']
os.chdir(here + "/../R")
from multiprocessing import Pool, cpu_count
subProcessPool = Pool(cpu_count() / 2)
for sn in socialNorm[1:2]:
for logpop in ["logpop", "pop"][0:1]:
for logpopden in ["logpopdensty", "popdensty"][0:1]:
subProcessPool.apply_async(
subPworker,
(lehdType, crimeType, sn, exposure, logpop, lagsFlag,
itersN, logpopden, tempflag, selfflow))
# p = subprocess.Popen(['Rscript', 'pvalue-evaluation.R',
# lehdType+"lehd", crimeType+"crime", sn,
# exposure, logpop, lagsFlag, itersN,
# logpopden, tempflag, selfflow])
# p.wait()
subProcessPool.close()
subProcessPool.join()
def permutationTest_accuracy(iters, permute='taxiflow'):
"""
Evaluate crime rate
use full feature set:
Corina, spaitallag, taxiflow, POIdist
evaluate on 2013
at CA level
leave one out
permutation
permute one feature 1000 times takes roughly 30-40 minutes.
The results are dumped as "permute-{feature}.pickle"
"""
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination")
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2013)
C = generate_corina_features()
D = C[1]
popul = C[1][:, 0].reshape(C[1].shape[0], 1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
nb_mae = []
nb_mre = []
lr_mae = []
lr_mre = []
for i in range(iters):
if permute == 'corina':
D = np.random.permutation(D)
elif permute == 'spatiallag':
yhat = np.random.permutation(Y)
f2 = np.dot(W2, yhat)
elif permute == 'taxiflow':
yhat = np.random.permutation(Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
elif permute == 'POIdist':
poi_dist = np.random.permutation(poi_dist)
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
f = np.concatenate((f, D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1)
header = ['intercept'] + C[0] + [ 'spatiallag', 'taxiflow'] + \
['POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel', 'POI arts entertainment',
'POI outdoors recreation', 'POI education', 'POI nightlife',
'POI professional', 'POI shops', 'POI event']
df = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=header)
np.savetxt("Y.csv", Y, delimiter=",")
df.to_csv("f.csv", sep=",", index=False)
# NB permute
nbres = subprocess.check_output(['Rscript', 'nbr_eval.R', 'ca'])
ls = nbres.split(' ')
nb_mae.append(float(ls[0]))
nb_mre.append(float(ls[2]))
mae2, mre2 = permutation_Test_LR(Y, f)
lr_mae.append(mae2)
lr_mre.append(mre2)
if i % 10 == 0:
print i
print '{0} iterations finished.'.format(iters)
print pvalue(412.305, lr_mae), pvalue(0.363, lr_mre), \
pvalue(319.86, nb_mae), pvalue(0.281, nb_mre)
return nb_mae, nb_mre, lr_mae, lr_mre
def leaveOneOut_evaluation_onChicagoCrimeData(year=2010,
features=["all"],
crime_t=['total'],
flow_type=0,
verboseoutput=False,
region='ca',
weightSocialFlow=True,
useRate=True,
logFeatures=[]):
"""
Generate the social lag from previous year
use income/race/education of current year
"""
warnings.warn("The leave one out in nbr_eval.R is unfair")
if 'sociallag' in features:
W = generate_transition_SocialLag(year,
lehd_type=flow_type,
region=region,
normalization='pair')
# add POI distribution and taxi flow
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False, gridLevel=region)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination", gridLevel=region)
if region == 'ca':
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Yhat = retrieve_crime_count(year - 1, col=crime_t)
# h = retrieve_health_data()
# Y = h[0].reshape((77,1))
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year, col=crime_t)
C = generate_corina_features()
popul = C[1][:, 0].reshape(C[1].shape[0], 1)
if 'sociallag' in features:
""" use poverty demographics to weight social lag """
wC = 28 # 130.0 if useRate else 32.0 # constant parameter
if weightSocialFlow:
poverty = C[1][:, 2]
for i in range(W.shape[0]):
for j in range(W.shape[1]):
W[i][j] *= np.exp(-np.abs(poverty[i] - poverty[j]) /
wC)
# crime count is normalized by the total population as crime rate
# here we use the crime count per 10 thousand residents
if useRate:
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
Yhat = np.divide(Yhat, popul) * 10000
elif region == 'tract':
W2, tractkey = generate_geographical_SpatialLag()
Yhat_map = retrieve_crime_count(year - 1, col=crime_t, region='tract')
Yhat = np.array([Yhat_map[k]
for k in tractkey]).reshape(len(Yhat_map), 1)
Y_map = retrieve_crime_count(year, col=crime_t, region='tract')
Y = np.array([Y_map[k] for k in tractkey]).reshape(len(Y_map), 1)
C = generate_corina_features(region='tract')
C_mtx = []
cnt = 0
for k in tractkey:
if k in C[1]:
C_mtx.append(C[1][k])
else:
cnt += 1
C_mtx.append([0 for i in range(7)])
C = (C[0], np.array(C_mtx))
# at tract level we don't normalize by population, since the tract is
# defined as region with around 2000 population
if useRate:
pass
i = retrieve_income_features()
e = retrieve_education_features()
r = retrieve_race_features()
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
# add intercept
columnName = ['intercept']
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
lrf = np.copy(f)
if "all" in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, f1, i[1], e[1], r[1]), axis=1)
f = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=['social lag'] + i[0] + e[0] + r[0])
if "sociallag" in features:
f1 = np.dot(W, Y)
if 'sociallag' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate((f, np.log(f1)), axis=1)
else:
f = np.concatenate((f, f1), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, f1), axis=1)
columnName += ['social lag']
if "income" in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, i[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, i[1]), axis=1)
columnName += i[0]
if "race" in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, r[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, r[1]), axis=1)
columnName += r[0]
if "education" in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, e[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, e[1]), axis=1)
columnName += e[0]
if 'corina' in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, C[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, C[1]), axis=1)
columnName += C[0]
if 'spatiallag' in features:
if 'spatiallag' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate((f, np.log(f2)), axis=1)
else:
f = np.concatenate((f, f2), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, f2), axis=1)
columnName += ['spatial lag']
if 'taxiflow' in features:
if 'taxiflow' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate((f, np.log(ftaxi)), axis=1)
else:
f = np.concatenate((f, ftaxi), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, ftaxi), axis=1)
columnName += ['taxi flow']
if 'POIdist' in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, poi_dist), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, poi_dist), axis=1)
columnName += [
'POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel',
'POI arts entertainment', 'POI outdoors recreation',
'POI education', 'POI nightlife', 'POI professional', 'POI shops',
'POI event'
]
if 'temporallag' in features:
f = np.concatenate((f, np.log(Yhat)), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate((f, Yhat), axis=1)
columnName += ['temporal lag']
nbres = NB_training_R(f, columnName, Y, region, verboseoutput)
print NB_training_python(f, Y)
mae2, var2, mre2 = LR_training_python(lrf, Y, verboseoutput)
if verboseoutput:
print "Linear Regression MAE", mae2, "std", var2, "MRE", mre2
else:
print nbres
print mae2, var2, mre2
return np.array([[float(ele) for ele in nbres.split(" ")],
[mae2, var2, mre2]])
def coefficients_pvalue(lagsFlag, tempflag="templag", selfflow="selfflow", itersN="10",
exposure="exposure", year=2010, lehdType="total",
crimeType='total'):
"""Return the pvalue of Negative Binomial model coefficients.
Permutation test + leave-one-out evaluation
Retrieve leave-one-out error distribution. To determine the p-value
The model to be evaluated is the NB model.
The features used in this model only includes spatial lag, scial lag, and demographics.
Keyword arguments:
lehdType -- the type of LEHD flow (default "total", alternative "lowincome")
crimeType -- the type of predicated crime (default "violent", alternative "total")
exposure -- exposure or noexposure
lagsFlag -- social lag, spatial lag, socai lag disadv, spatial lag disadv
"""
C = generate_corina_features('ca')
demo = pd.DataFrame(data=C[1], columns=C[0], dtype="float")
W1 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
# the LEHD type
if lehdType == "lowincome":
W2 = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=year, lehd_type=4, region='ca',
normalization='none')
elif lehdType == "total":
W2 = generate_transition_SocialLag(year=year, lehd_type=0, region='ca',
normalization='none')
elif lehdType == "taxi":
W2 = getTaxiFlow(normalization="none")
if selfflow == 'selfflow':
s = [W2[i,i] for i in range(W2.shape[0])]
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-selfflow.csv", s)
for i in range(W2.shape[0]):
W2[i,i] = 0
# the predicated crime type
violentCrime = ['HOMICIDE', 'CRIM SEXUAL ASSAULT', 'BATTERY', 'ROBBERY',
'ARSON', 'DOMESTIC VIOLENCE', 'ASSAULT']
if crimeType == 'total':
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year, col=['total'], region='ca')
if tempflag == "templag":
ystart = (year-3) if year - 3 >= 2003 else 2003
tlag = []
for ytmp in range(ystart, year):
yt = retrieve_crime_count(year=ytmp, col=['total'], region='ca')
tlag.append(yt)
yt = np.mean(tlag, axis=0)
assert yt.shape == Y.shape
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-templag.csv", yt)
elif crimeType == 'violent':
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year, col=violentCrime, region='ca')
if tempflag == "templag":
ystart = (year-3) if year - 3 >= 2003 else 2003
tlag = []
for ytmp in range(ystart, year):
yt = retrieve_crime_count(year=ytmp, col=violentCrime, region='ca')
tlag.append(yt)
yt = np.mean(tlag, axis=0)
assert yt.shape == Y.shape
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-templag.csv", yt)
demo.to_csv(here + "/../R/pvalue-demo.csv", index=False)
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-spatiallag.csv", W1, delimiter=",")
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-sociallag.csv", W2, delimiter=",")
np.savetxt(here + "/../R/pvalue-crime.csv", Y)
# use a multiprocess Pool to run subprocess in parallel
socialNorm = ['bydestination', 'bysource', 'bypair']
os.chdir(here + "/../R")
from multiprocessing import Pool, cpu_count
subProcessPool = Pool(cpu_count() / 2)
for sn in socialNorm[1:2]:
for logpop in ["logpop", "pop"][0:1]:
for logpopden in ["logpopdensty", "popdensty"][0:1]:
subProcessPool.apply_async(subPworker, (lehdType, crimeType, sn, exposure, logpop, lagsFlag, itersN, logpopden, tempflag, selfflow))
# p = subprocess.Popen(['Rscript', 'pvalue-evaluation.R',
# lehdType+"lehd", crimeType+"crime", sn,
# exposure, logpop, lagsFlag, itersN,
# logpopden, tempflag, selfflow])
# p.wait()
subProcessPool.close()
subProcessPool.join()
def permutationTest_accuracy(iters, permute='taxiflow'):
"""
Evaluate crime rate
use full feature set:
Corina, spaitallag, taxiflow, POIdist
evaluate on 2013
at CA level
leave one out
permutation
permute one feature 1000 times takes roughly 30-40 minutes.
The results are dumped as "permute-{feature}.pickle"
"""
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination")
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=2013)
C = generate_corina_features()
D = C[1]
popul = C[1][:,0].reshape(C[1].shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
nb_mae = []
nb_mre = []
lr_mae = []
lr_mre = []
for i in range(iters):
if permute == 'corina':
D = np.random.permutation(D)
elif permute == 'spatiallag':
yhat = np.random.permutation(Y)
f2 = np.dot(W2, yhat)
elif permute == 'taxiflow':
yhat = np.random.permutation(Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
elif permute == 'POIdist':
poi_dist = np.random.permutation(poi_dist)
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
f = np.concatenate( (f, D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1 )
header = ['intercept'] + C[0] + [ 'spatiallag', 'taxiflow'] + \
['POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel', 'POI arts entertainment',
'POI outdoors recreation', 'POI education', 'POI nightlife',
'POI professional', 'POI shops', 'POI event']
df = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=header)
np.savetxt("Y.csv", Y, delimiter=",")
df.to_csv("f.csv", sep=",", index=False)
# NB permute
nbres = subprocess.check_output( ['Rscript', 'nbr_eval.R', 'ca'] )
ls = nbres.split(' ')
nb_mae.append( float(ls[0]) )
nb_mre.append( float(ls[2]) )
mae2, mre2 = permutation_Test_LR(Y, f)
lr_mae.append(mae2)
lr_mre.append(mre2)
if i % 10 == 0:
print i
print '{0} iterations finished.'.format(iters)
print pvalue(412.305, lr_mae), pvalue(0.363, lr_mre), \
pvalue(319.86, nb_mae), pvalue(0.281, nb_mre)
return nb_mae, nb_mre, lr_mae, lr_mre
def leaveOneOut_evaluation_onChicagoCrimeData(year=2010, features= ["all"],
crime_t=['total'], flow_type=0,
verboseoutput=False, region='ca',
weightSocialFlow=True,
useRate=True, logFeatures = []):
"""
Generate the social lag from previous year
use income/race/education of current year
"""
warnings.warn("The leave one out in nbr_eval.R is unfair")
if 'sociallag' in features:
W = generate_transition_SocialLag(year, lehd_type=flow_type, region=region,
normalization='pair')
# add POI distribution and taxi flow
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False, gridLevel=region)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination", gridLevel=region)
if region == 'ca':
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Yhat = retrieve_crime_count(year-1, col = crime_t)
# h = retrieve_health_data()
# Y = h[0].reshape((77,1))
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year, col = crime_t)
C = generate_corina_features()
popul = C[1][:,0].reshape(C[1].shape[0],1)
if 'sociallag' in features:
""" use poverty demographics to weight social lag """
wC = 28 # 130.0 if useRate else 32.0 # constant parameter
if weightSocialFlow:
poverty = C[1][:,2]
for i in range(W.shape[0]):
for j in range (W.shape[1]):
W[i][j] *= np.exp( - np.abs(poverty[i] - poverty[j]) / wC )
# crime count is normalized by the total population as crime rate
# here we use the crime count per 10 thousand residents
if useRate:
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
Yhat = np.divide(Yhat, popul) * 10000
elif region == 'tract':
W2, tractkey = generate_geographical_SpatialLag()
Yhat_map = retrieve_crime_count(year-1, col = crime_t, region='tract')
Yhat = np.array( [Yhat_map[k] for k in tractkey] ).reshape( len(Yhat_map), 1)
Y_map = retrieve_crime_count(year, col = crime_t, region='tract')
Y = np.array( [Y_map[k] for k in tractkey] ).reshape( len(Y_map), 1 )
C = generate_corina_features(region='tract')
C_mtx = []
cnt = 0
for k in tractkey:
if k in C[1]:
C_mtx.append(C[1][k])
else:
cnt += 1
C_mtx.append( [0 for i in range(7)] )
C = ( C[0], np.array( C_mtx ) )
# at tract level we don't normalize by population, since the tract is
# defined as region with around 2000 population
if useRate:
pass
i = retrieve_income_features()
e = retrieve_education_features()
r = retrieve_race_features()
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
# add intercept
columnName = ['intercept']
f = np.ones(f2.shape)
lrf = np.copy(f)
if "all" in features:
f = np.concatenate( (f, f1, i[1], e[1], r[1]), axis=1)
f = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=['social lag'] + i[0] + e[0] + r[0])
if "sociallag" in features:
f1 = np.dot(W, Y)
if 'sociallag' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate( (f, np.log(f1)), axis=1 )
else:
f = np.concatenate( (f, f1), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, f1), axis=1)
columnName += ['social lag']
if "income" in features:
f = np.concatenate( (f, i[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, i[1]), axis=1)
columnName += i[0]
if "race" in features:
f = np.concatenate( (f, r[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, r[1]), axis=1)
columnName += r[0]
if "education" in features :
f = np.concatenate( (f, e[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, e[1]), axis=1)
columnName += e[0]
if 'corina' in features :
f = np.concatenate( (f, C[1]), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, C[1]), axis=1)
columnName += C[0]
if 'spatiallag' in features:
if 'spatiallag' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate( (f, np.log(f2)), axis=1)
else:
f = np.concatenate( (f, f2), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, f2), axis=1)
columnName += ['spatial lag']
if 'taxiflow' in features:
if 'taxiflow' in logFeatures:
f = np.concatenate( (f, np.log(ftaxi)), axis=1 )
else:
f = np.concatenate( (f, ftaxi), axis=1 )
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, ftaxi), axis=1 )
columnName += ['taxi flow']
if 'POIdist' in features:
f = np.concatenate( (f, poi_dist), axis=1 )
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, poi_dist), axis=1 )
columnName += ['POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel', 'POI arts entertainment',
'POI outdoors recreation', 'POI education', 'POI nightlife',
'POI professional', 'POI shops', 'POI event']
if 'temporallag' in features:
f = np.concatenate( (f, np.log(Yhat)), axis=1)
lrf = np.concatenate( (f, Yhat), axis=1)
columnName += ['temporal lag']
nbres = NB_training_R(f, columnName, Y, region, verboseoutput)
print NB_training_python(f, Y)
mae2, var2, mre2 = LR_training_python(lrf, Y, verboseoutput)
if verboseoutput:
print "Linear Regression MAE", mae2, "std", var2, "MRE", mre2
else:
print nbres
print mae2, var2, mre2
return np.array([[float(ele) for ele in nbres.split(" ")], [mae2, var2, mre2]])
for h in range(24):
Fn = similarityMatrix(hdge[h])
x, y, xp, yp, lp = generate_point(Fn, Y)
f = plt.figure()
plt.scatter(x, y, color='red')
plt.show()
demo = generate_corina_features()
y_cnt = retrieve_crime_count(2013)
population = demo[1][:, 0].reshape(demo[1].shape[0], 1)
Y = y_cnt / population * 10000
F = getTaxiFlow(normalization="none")
x, y, xp, yp, lp = generate_point(F, Y)
plt.rc("axes", linewidth=2)
f = plt.figure(figsize=(8, 6))
plt.scatter(x, y, s=16)
plt.plot([-100, -100, 3500, -100], [3000, -3000, 0, 3000],
linewidth=2,
color='blue')
plt.scatter(xp, yp, color='red', s=28)
plt.xlabel("Taxi flow from $r_i$ to $r_j$", fontsize=20)
plt.ylabel("Crime rate difference $y_i - y_j$", fontsize=20)
#for i in range(len(lp)):
# a.axes.annotate(lp[i], xy=(xp[i], yp[i]))
def NB_coefficients(year=2010):
poi_dist = getFourSquarePOIDistribution(useRatio=False)
F_taxi = getTaxiFlow(normalization="bydestination")
W2 = generate_geographical_SpatialLag_ca()
Y = retrieve_crime_count(year=year)
C = generate_corina_features()
D = C[1]
popul = C[1][:,0].reshape(C[1].shape[0],1)
Y = np.divide(Y, popul) * 10000
f2 = np.dot(W2, Y)
ftaxi = np.dot(F_taxi, Y)
f = np.concatenate( (D, f2, ftaxi, poi_dist), axis=1 )
mms = MinMaxScaler(copy=False)
mms.fit(f)
mms.transform(f)
header = C[0] + [ 'spatiallag', 'taxiflow'] + \
['POI food', 'POI residence', 'POI travel', 'POI arts entertainment',
'POI outdoors recreation', 'POI education', 'POI nightlife',
'POI professional', 'POI shops', 'POI event']
df = pd.DataFrame(f, columns=header)
np.savetxt("Y.csv", Y, delimiter=",")
df.to_csv("f.csv", sep=",", index=False)
# NB permute
nbres = subprocess.check_output( ['Rscript', 'nbr_eval.R', 'ca', 'coefficient'] )
print nbres
ls = nbres.strip().split(" ")
coef = [float(e) for e in ls]
print coef
return coef, header
