def poisson_observed_poisson_background(observed_counts, background_counts,
exposure_ratio, expected_model_counts):
# TODO: check this with simulations
# Just a name change to make writing formulas a little easier
alpha = exposure_ratio
b = background_counts
o = observed_counts
M = expected_model_counts
# Nuisance parameter for Poisson likelihood
# NOTE: B_mle is zero when b is zero!
sqr = np.sqrt(4 * (alpha + alpha**2) * b * M + ((alpha + 1) * M - alpha *
(o + b))**2)
B_mle = 1 / (2.0 * alpha * (1 + alpha)) * (alpha * (o + b) -
(alpha + 1) * M + sqr)
# Profile likelihood
loglike = xlogy(o, alpha*B_mle + M) + xlogy(b, B_mle) - (alpha+1) * B_mle - M - \
logfactorial(b) - logfactorial(o)
return loglike, B_mle * alpha
def inner_fit(self):
'''
This is used for the profile likelihood. Keeping fixed all parameters in the
modelManager, this method minimize the logLike over the remaining nuisance
parameters, i.e., the parameters belonging only to the model for this
particular detector
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
if not self.innerMinimization:
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
else:
try:
# Use .optimize instead of .fit because we don't need the errors
# (.optimize is faster than .fit)
self.like.optimize(0)
except:
# This is necessary because sometimes fitting algorithms go and explore extreme region of the
# parameter space, which might turn out to give strange model shapes and therefore
# problems in the likelihood fit
print("Warning: failed likelihood fit (probably parameters are too extreme).")
return 1e5
else:
# Update the value for the nuisance parameters
for par in self.nuisance_parameters.values():
newValue = self.getNuisanceParameterValue(par.name)
par.value = newValue
pass
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
return log_like - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def _computeLogLike(self, modelCounts):
idx = modelCounts > 0
return numpy.sum(
-modelCounts[idx] + self.counts[idx] * numpy.log(modelCounts[idx]) - logfactorial(self.counts[idx])
)
def inner_fit(self):
'''
This is used for the profile likelihood. Keeping fixed all parameters in the
modelManager, this method minimize the logLike over the remaining nuisance
parameters, i.e., the parameters belonging only to the model for this
particular detector
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
if not self.innerMinimization:
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
else:
try:
# Use .optimize instead of .fit because we don't need the errors
# (.optimize is faster than .fit)
self.like.optimize(0)
except:
# This is necessary because sometimes fitting algorithms go and explore extreme region of the
# parameter space, which might turn out to give strange model shapes and therefore
# problems in the likelihood fit
print("Warning: failed likelihood fit (probably parameters are too extreme).")
return 1e5
else:
# Update the value for the nuisance parameters
for par in self.nuisanceParameters.values():
newValue = self.getNuisanceParameterValue(par.name)
par.value = newValue
pass
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
return log_like - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def poisson_observed_gaussian_background(observed_counts, background_counts,
background_error,
expected_model_counts):
# This loglike assume Gaussian errors on the background and Poisson uncertainties on the
# observed counts. It is a profile likelihood.
MB = background_counts + expected_model_counts
s2 = background_error**2 # type: np.ndarray
b = 0.5 * (np.sqrt(MB**2 - 2 * s2 *
(MB - 2 * observed_counts) + background_error**4) +
background_counts - expected_model_counts - s2
) # type: np.ndarray
# Now there are two branches: when the background is 0 we are in the normal situation of a pure
# Poisson likelihood, while when the background is not zero we use the profile likelihood
# NOTE: bkgErr can be 0 only when also bkgCounts = 0
# Also it is evident from the expression above that when bkgCounts = 0 and bkgErr=0 also b=0
# Let's do the branch with background > 0 first
idx = background_counts > 0
log_likes = np.empty_like(expected_model_counts)
log_likes[idx] = (
-(b[idx] - background_counts[idx])**2 / (2 * s2[idx]) +
observed_counts[idx] * np.log(b[idx] + expected_model_counts[idx]) -
b[idx] - expected_model_counts[idx] -
logfactorial(observed_counts[idx]) - 0.5 * log(2 * np.pi) -
np.log(background_error[idx]))
# Let's do the other branch
nidx = ~idx
# the 1e-100 in the log is to avoid zero divisions
# This is the Poisson likelihood with no background
log_likes[nidx] = xlogy(observed_counts[nidx], expected_model_counts[nidx]) - \
expected_model_counts[nidx] - logfactorial(observed_counts[nidx])
return log_likes, b
def poisson_observed_gaussian_background(observed_counts, background_counts, background_error, expected_model_counts):
# This loglike assume Gaussian errors on the background and Poisson uncertainties on the
# observed counts. It is a profile likelihood.
MB = background_counts + expected_model_counts
s2 = background_error ** 2 # type: np.ndarray
b = 0.5 * (np.sqrt(MB ** 2 - 2 * s2 * (MB - 2 * observed_counts) + background_error ** 4)
+ background_counts - expected_model_counts - s2) # type: np.ndarray
# Now there are two branches: when the background is 0 we are in the normal situation of a pure
# Poisson likelihood, while when the background is not zero we use the profile likelihood
# NOTE: bkgErr can be 0 only when also bkgCounts = 0
# Also it is evident from the expression above that when bkgCounts = 0 and bkgErr=0 also b=0
# Let's do the branch with background > 0 first
idx = background_counts > 0
log_likes = np.empty_like(expected_model_counts)
log_likes[idx] = (-(b[idx] - background_counts[idx]) ** 2 / (2 * s2[idx])
+ observed_counts[idx] * np.log(b[idx] + expected_model_counts[idx])
- b[idx] - expected_model_counts[idx] - logfactorial(observed_counts[idx])
- 0.5 * log(2 * np.pi) - np.log(background_error[idx]))
# Let's do the other branch
nidx = ~idx
# the 1e-100 in the log is to avoid zero divisions
# This is the Poisson likelihood with no background
log_likes[nidx] = xlogy(observed_counts[nidx], expected_model_counts[nidx]) - \
expected_model_counts[nidx] - logfactorial(observed_counts[nidx])
return log_likes, b
def get_log_like(self):
'''
Return the value of the log-likelihood with the current values for the
parameters stored in the ModelManager instance
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
try:
value = self.like.logLike.value()
except:
raise
return value - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def poisson_observed_poisson_background(observed_counts, background_counts, exposure_ratio, expected_model_counts):
# TODO: check this with simulations
# Just a name change to make writing formulas a little easier
alpha = exposure_ratio
b = background_counts
o = observed_counts
M = expected_model_counts
# Nuisance parameter for Poisson likelihood
# NOTE: B_mle is zero when b is zero!
sqr = np.sqrt(4 * (alpha + alpha ** 2) * b * M + ((alpha + 1) * M - alpha * (o + b)) ** 2)
B_mle = 1 / (2.0 * alpha * (1+alpha)) * (alpha * (o + b) - (alpha+1) * M + sqr)
# Profile likelihood
loglike = xlogy(o, alpha*B_mle + M) + xlogy(b, B_mle) - (alpha+1) * B_mle - M - \
logfactorial(b) - logfactorial(o)
return loglike, B_mle * alpha
def get_log_like(self):
'''
Return the value of the log-likelihood with the current values for the
parameters stored in the ModelManager instance
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
try:
value = self.like.logLike.value()
except:
raise
return value - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def _compute_likelihood_biases(self):
for bin_label in self._maptree:
data_analysis_bin = self._maptree[bin_label]
this_log_factorial = np.sum(logfactorial(data_analysis_bin.observation_map.as_partial()))
self._log_factorials[bin_label] = this_log_factorial
# As bias we use the likelihood value for the saturated model
obs = data_analysis_bin.observation_map.as_partial()
bkg = data_analysis_bin.background_map.as_partial()
sat_model = np.clip(obs - bkg, 1e-50, None).astype(np.float64)
self._saturated_model_like_per_maptree[bin_label] = log_likelihood(obs, bkg, sat_model) - this_log_factorial
def _compute_likelihood_biases(self):
for i, data_analysis_bin in enumerate(self._maptree):
this_log_factorial = np.sum(
logfactorial(data_analysis_bin.observation_map.as_partial()))
self._log_factorials[i] = this_log_factorial
# As bias we use the likelihood value for the saturated model
obs = data_analysis_bin.observation_map.as_partial()
bkg = data_analysis_bin.background_map.as_partial()
sat_model = np.maximum(obs - bkg, 1e-30).astype(np.float64)
self._saturated_model_like_per_maptree[i] = log_likelihood(
obs, bkg, sat_model) - this_log_factorial
def get_log_like(self):
'''
Return the value of the log-likelihood with the current values for the
parameters stored in the ModelManager instance
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
if self.fit_nuisance_params:
for parameter in self.nuisance_parameters:
self.setNuisanceParameterValue(parameter, self.nuisance_parameters[parameter].value)
self.like.syncSrcParams()
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
return log_like - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def get_log_like(self):
'''
Return the value of the log-likelihood with the current values for the
parameters stored in the ModelManager instance
'''
self._updateGtlikeModel()
if self.fit_nuisance_params:
for parameter in self.nuisance_parameters:
self.setNuisanceParameterValue(parameter, self.nuisance_parameters[parameter].value)
self.like.syncSrcParams()
log_like = self.like.logLike.value()
return log_like - logfactorial(self.like.total_nobs())
def get_log_like(self):
'''
Return the value of the log-likelihood with the current values for the
parameters stored in the ModelManager instance
'''
# Update all sources on the fermipy side
self._update_model_in_fermipy()
# Get value of the log likelihood
try:
value = self._gta.like.logLike.value()
except:
raise
return value - logfactorial(self._gta.like.total_nobs())
def poisson_log_likelihood_ideal_bkg(observed_counts, expected_bkg_counts, expected_model_counts):
"""
Poisson log-likelihood for the case where the background has no uncertainties:
L = \sum_{i=0}^{N}~o_i~\log{(m_i + b_i)} - (m_i + b_i) - \log{o_i!}
:param observed_counts:
:param expected_bkg_counts:
:param expected_model_counts:
:return: (log_like vector, background vector)
"""
# Model predicted counts
# In this likelihood the background becomes part of the model, which means that
# the uncertainty in the background is completely neglected
predicted_counts = expected_bkg_counts + expected_model_counts
log_likes = xlogy(observed_counts, predicted_counts) - predicted_counts - logfactorial(observed_counts)
return log_likes, expected_bkg_counts
def poisson_log_likelihood_ideal_bkg(observed_counts, expected_bkg_counts, expected_model_counts):
"""
Poisson log-likelihood for the case where the background has no uncertainties:
L = \sum_{i=0}^{N}~o_i~\log{(m_i + b_i)} - (m_i + b_i) - \log{o_i!}
:param observed_counts:
:param expected_bkg_counts:
:param expected_model_counts:
:return: (log_like vector, background vector)
"""
# Model predicted counts
# In this likelihood the background becomes part of the model, which means that
# the uncertainty in the background is completely neglected
predicted_counts = expected_bkg_counts + expected_model_counts
log_likes = xlogy(observed_counts, predicted_counts) - predicted_counts - logfactorial(observed_counts)
return log_likes, expected_bkg_counts
def _computeLogLike(self, modelCounts):
return numpy.sum(- modelCounts
+ self.counts * numpy.log(modelCounts)
- logfactorial(self.counts) )
