def test_ICM_libtest(netwrk: Network,
true_theta: float,
true_relic: float = .0,
single_point=False):
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
#result = Simulator.simulate_ICM(underlying=netwrk, theta=true_theta, relic=true_relic, infected={1})
outcomes = []
otimes = []
for i in range(50):
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=.1,
relic=.0,
confirm=.0,
decay=.1,
infected={1},
tmax=300,
dt=0.05)
result['outcome'][1] = .0
print(result)
outcomes.append(result['outcome'])
otimes.append(300)
est.set_diffusion_data_ensemble_newlib(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
outcomes=outcomes,
observe_times=otimes,
echo=False)
est_th = .0
best_pest = -99999999999
total_pest = 0
thetas = np.arange(0.01, 1.0, 0.001)
ps = np.zeros(len(thetas))
for i in range(len(thetas)):
th = thetas[i]
pest = math.exp(-est.loglikelyhood_ICM([th, .0]))
print(pest)
if pest > best_pest:
best_pest = pest
est_th = th
ps[i] = pest
total_pest += pest
print('True theta: ' + str(true_theta))
print('Max liklehood estimation: ' + str(est_th) + ' ' +
str(-0.1 * math.log(1 - est_th)))
psnorm = stat.normalize_series(list(ps))
confide = stat.confidential_from_p_series(psnorm, 0.95)
print('0.95 confidential interval: (' + str(thetas[confide[0]]) + ', ' +
str(thetas[confide[1]]) + ')')
pyplot.plot(thetas, psnorm)
pyplot.show()
def test_network_manager(ntype=None):
if ntype is None:
net = st_test.make_test_network()
elif ntype.lower() == 'connected':
net = st_test.make_test_network_connected()
elif ntype.lower() == 'star':
net = st_test.make_test_network_star()
elif ntype.lower() == 'chain':
net = st_test.make_test_network_chain()
else:
net = st_test.make_test_network()
net_man = NetworkManager(net, 'ut_c_libs_estimator_test', '../Output/')
net_man.save_to_file()
return net_man
def test_SI_relic_decay_libtest(ntw: Network,
true_theta: float,
true_relic: float,
newlib=False,
single_point=False):
#test_outcome = {5: 11.89999999999979, 6: 36.75000000000126, 20: 39.49000000000071, 1: 39.65000000000068, 3: 40.0600000000006, 26: 40.840000000000444, 11: 41.31000000000035, 2: 43.799999999999855, 13: 44.299999999999756, 22: 45.64999999999949, 25: 46.29999999999936, 12: 46.33999999999935, 16: 47.43999999999913, 9: 49.53999999999871, 7: 49.68999999999868, 23: 50.679999999998486, 27: 52.849999999998055, 30: 53.77999999999787, 29: 54.22999999999778, 24: 54.499999999997726, 21: 55.03999999999762, 15: 58.159999999997, 17: 58.56999999999692, 8: 62.05999999999622, 14: 66.41999999999707, 4: 79.06000000000354, 10: 87.63000000000793, 19: 110.38000000001956, 31: 146.84000000001143, 28: 159.5199999999999, 18: 0.0}
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=true_theta,
relic=true_relic,
confirm=.0,
decay=.0,
infected={1},
tmax=300,
dt=0.01)
result['outcome'][1] = .0
#result['outcome'] = test_outcome #OVERWRITE TEST
# result = Simulator.simulate_SI_relic(underlying=ntw, theta=true_theta, relic=true_relic,
# infected={1}, tmax=300, dt=0.01)
if (newlib):
est.set_diffusion_data_newlib(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
outcome=result['outcome'],
observe_time=300,
echo=False)
else:
est.set_diffusion_data(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
counters={},
outcome=result['outcome'])
est_th_py = .0
est_dc_py = .0
est_th_c = .0
est_dc_c = .0
best_pest_py = 0
best_pest_c = 0
ml_pval = 0
total_pest = 0
th = 0.0
thetas = np.arange(0.0001, 0.05, 0.0005)
relics = np.arange(0.0001, 0.01, 0.0001)
ps_py = np.zeros((len(thetas), len(relics)))
ps_c = np.zeros((len(thetas), len(relics)))
i = 0
if (single_point):
print(
math.exp(
Simulator.estimate_SI_relic_continuous(
underlying=ntw,
outcome=result['outcome'],
theta=true_theta,
relic=true_relic,
initials={1},
tmax=300,
echo=False)))
if (newlib):
print(
math.exp(-est.loglikelyhood_SI_relic_newlib(
[true_theta, true_relic])))
else:
print(
math.exp(
-est.loglikelyhood_SI_relic([true_theta, true_relic])))
else:
for th in thetas:
dc = 0.0
j = 0
for dc in relics:
pest_py = math.exp(
Simulator.estimate_SI_relic_continuous(
underlying=ntw,
outcome=result['outcome'],
theta=th,
relic=dc,
initials={1},
tmax=300))
if (newlib):
pest_c = math.exp(
-est.loglikelyhood_SI_relic_newlib([th, dc]))
else:
pest_c = math.exp(-est.loglikelyhood_SI_relic([th, dc]))
# print(str(th) + ' ' + str(pest))
if pest_py > best_pest_py:
best_pest_py = pest_py
est_th_py = th
est_dc_py = dc
if pest_c > best_pest_c:
best_pest_c = pest_c
est_th_c = th
est_dc_c = dc
ps_py[i][j] = pest_py
ps_c[i][j] = pest_c
j += 1
i += 1
print('True theta: ' + str(true_theta))
print('Max liklehood estimation Py: ' + str(est_th_py))
print('Max liklehood estimation C: ' + str(est_th_c))
print('True relic: ' + str(true_relic))
print('Max liklehood estimation Py: ' + str(est_dc_py))
print('Max liklehood estimation C: ' + str(est_dc_c))
print('Likelyhood Py: ' + str(best_pest_py))
print('Likelyhood C: ' + str(best_pest_c))
relics, thetas = np.meshgrid(relics, thetas)
plt.figure(figsize=(5, 5))
plt.xlabel('$\\theta$ (virulence)')
plt.ylabel('$\\rho$ (background)')
plt.contourf(thetas, relics, ps_py, levels=15)
plt.scatter([est_th_py], [est_dc_py], color='blue', marker='+')
plt.scatter([true_theta], [true_relic], color='red', marker='o')
plt.show()
plt.figure(figsize=(5, 5))
plt.xlabel('$\\theta$ (virulence)')
plt.ylabel('$\\rho$ (background)')
plt.contourf(thetas, relics, ps_c, levels=15)
plt.scatter([est_th_c], [est_dc_c], color='blue', marker='+')
plt.scatter([true_theta], [true_relic], color='red', marker='o')
plt.show()
def test_display_simulation_infections_ensemble(netwrk, theta, decay, relic,
n_infections):
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
dt = 0.01
tmax = 80
outcomes = []
initials = []
for kk in range(n_infections):
start_id = random.randint(1, 29)
start_id = 1
initials.append(start_id)
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=theta,
relic=relic,
confirm=.0,
decay=decay,
infected={start_id},
tmax=tmax,
dt=dt,
echo=False)
result['outcome'][start_id] = .0
outcomes.append(result['outcome'])
est.set_diffusion_data_ensemble(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
counters={},
outcomes=outcomes,
echo=True)
# p1 = .0
# for kk in range(n_infections):
# p = math.log(Simulator.estimate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(underlying=netwrk, theta=theta,
# relic=relic,
# confirm=.0, decay=decay,
# initials={initials[kk]},
# tmax=tmax, dt=dt, echo=True,
# outcome=outcomes[kk])
# /(dt**(len(outcomes[kk])-1)))
# p1 += p
# print(str(p) + '\n')
#
# p2 = -est.loglikelyhood_noconfirm_ensemble([theta, decay, relic], observe_time=tmax)
# print(p1)
# print(p2)
#
# return
thetas = np.arange(0.0001, 0.05, 0.0005)
relics = np.arange(0.0001, 0.05, 0.0005)
ps = np.zeros((len(thetas), len(relics)))
ps2 = np.zeros((len(thetas), len(relics)))
best_pest = 1.0
best_pest2 = 1.0
# for kk in range(n_infections):
# best_pest += math.log(Simulator.estimate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(underlying=netwrk, theta=thetas[0],
# relic=relic,
# confirm=.0, decay=relics[0], initials={initials[kk]},
# tmax=tmax, dt=dt, echo=False,
# outcome=outcomes[kk])/(dt**(len(outcomes[kk])-1)))
best_pest2 = -est.loglikelyhood_noconfirm_ensemble(
[thetas[0], relics[0], relic], observe_time=tmax)
est_th = 0
est_dc = 0
est_th2 = 0
est_dc2 = 0
i = 0
for th in thetas:
dc = 0.0
j = 0
for dc in relics:
pest = .0
# for kk in range(n_infections):
# pest += math.log(Simulator.estimate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(underlying=netwrk, theta=th,
# relic=relic,
# confirm=.0, decay=dc, initials={initials[kk]},
# tmax=tmax, dt=dt, echo=False,
# outcome=outcomes[kk])/(dt**(len(outcomes[kk])-1)))
pest2 = -est.loglikelyhood_noconfirm_ensemble([th, dc, relic],
observe_time=tmax)
print(
str(th) + ' ' + str(dc) + ' ' + str(pest) + ' ' + str(pest2) +
' ' + str(abs(pest - pest2)))
if pest > best_pest:
best_pest = pest
est_th = th
est_dc = dc
ps[i][j] = pest
if pest2 > best_pest2:
best_pest2 = pest2
est_th2 = th
est_dc2 = dc
ps2[i][j] = pest2
j += 1
i += 1
relics, thetas = np.meshgrid(relics, thetas)
border_pest = best_pest - 300
for i in range(len(thetas)):
for j in range(len(relics)):
if ps[i][j] >= border_pest:
ps[i][j] = math.exp(ps[i][j] - border_pest)
else:
ps[i][j] = .0
plt.subplot(1, 2, 1)
#plt.figure(figsize=(5, 5))
plt.xlabel('$\\theta$ (virulence)')
plt.ylabel('$\\delta$ (decay)')
plt.contourf(thetas, relics, ps, levels=15)
plt.scatter([est_th], [est_dc], color='blue', marker='+')
plt.scatter([theta], [decay], color='red', marker='o')
#plt.show()
border_pest2 = best_pest2 - 300
for i in range(len(thetas)):
for j in range(len(relics)):
if ps2[i][j] >= border_pest2:
ps2[i][j] = math.exp(ps2[i][j] - border_pest2)
else:
ps2[i][j] = .0
plt.subplot(1, 2, 2)
#plt.figure(figsize=(5, 5))
plt.xlabel('$\\theta$ (virulence)')
plt.ylabel('$\\delta$ (decay)')
plt.contourf(thetas, relics, ps2, levels=15)
plt.scatter([est_th2], [est_dc2], color='blue', marker='+')
plt.scatter([theta], [decay], color='red', marker='o')
plt.show()
def test_simulation_infections_ensemble_by_observe_time(
netwrk, theta, decay, relic, n_infections, tmax, dt):
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
ths = []
rels = []
decs = []
thnorms = []
th = []
rl = []
dc = []
outcomes = []
for kk in range(n_infections):
start_id = random.randint(1, 29)
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=theta,
relic=relic,
confirm=.0,
decay=decay,
infected={start_id},
tmax=tmax,
dt=0.01)
result['outcome'][start_id] = .0
outcomes.append(result['outcome'])
for i in range(40, tmax, dt):
outcomes_trimmed = []
for outcome in outcomes:
new_outcome = {}
for node_id, time in outcome.items():
if time <= i:
new_outcome[node_id] = time
outcomes_trimmed.append(new_outcome)
print(outcomes_trimmed)
est.set_diffusion_data_ensemble(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
counters={},
outcomes=outcomes_trimmed,
echo=True)
estimation = est.llmax_for_diffusion_noconfirm_ensemble(
theta * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
decay,
relic * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
disp=True,
observe_time=i)
print('Max: ' + str(estimation))
print('Norm: ' + str(estimation['theta'] / estimation['relic']))
ths.append(estimation['theta'])
rels.append(estimation['relic'])
decs.append(estimation['decay'])
thnorms.append(estimation['theta'] / estimation['relic'])
th.append(theta)
rl.append(relic)
dc.append(decay)
# plt.plot(ths)
# plt.plot(rels)
# plt.plot(decs)
plt.plot(ths, 'r')
plt.plot(th, 'r--')
plt.plot(rels, 'g')
plt.plot(rl, 'g--')
plt.plot(decs, 'b')
plt.plot(dc, 'b--')
plt.show()
def test_simulation_infections_ensemble_by_n_infections(
netwrk, theta, decay, relic, n_infections, newlib=False):
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
ths = []
rels = []
decs = []
thnorms = []
th = []
rl = []
dc = []
for i in range(n_infections):
outcomes = []
for kk in range(i):
start_id = random.randint(1, 29)
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=theta,
relic=relic,
confirm=.0,
decay=decay,
infected={start_id},
tmax=300,
dt=0.01)
result['outcome'][start_id] = .0
outcomes.append(result['outcome'])
if newlib == True:
observe_times = [600 for j in range(len(outcomes))]
est.set_diffusion_data_ensemble_newlib(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
outcomes=outcomes,
observe_times=observe_times,
echo=True)
estimation = est.llmax_for_diffusion_noconfirm(
theta * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
decay,
relic * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
disp=True,
new_lib=True)
else:
est.set_diffusion_data_ensemble(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
counters={},
outcomes=outcomes,
echo=True)
estimation = est.llmax_for_diffusion_noconfirm_ensemble(
theta * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
decay,
relic * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4),
disp=True,
observe_time=600)
print('Max: ' + str(estimation))
print('Norm: ' + str(estimation['theta'] / estimation['relic']))
ths.append(estimation['theta'])
rels.append(estimation['relic'])
decs.append(estimation['decay'])
thnorms.append(estimation['theta'] / estimation['relic'])
th.append(theta)
rl.append(relic)
dc.append(decay)
# plt.plot(ths)
# plt.plot(rels)
# plt.plot(decs)
plt.plot(ths, 'r')
plt.plot(th, 'r--')
plt.plot(rels, 'g')
plt.plot(rl, 'g--')
plt.plot(decs, 'b')
plt.plot(dc, 'b--')
plt.show()
def test_simulation_dlldthetas(netwrk, theta, decay, relic):
netman = NetworkManager(net=netwrk,
name='temp',
base_dir='D:/BigData/Charity/Cascades/')
netman.save_to_file()
targ_id = 2
# for i in range(100):
thetas = {}
for j in netman.network.nodes_ids:
thetas[j] = theta * math.exp((0.5 - random.random()) * 4)
thetas[targ_id] *= 10
l = list(thetas.items())
l.sort(key=lambda i: i[1])
true_rank = 0
i = 0
for el in l:
print(str(el[0]) + ' : ' + str(el[1]))
i += 1
if el[0] == targ_id:
true_rank = i
N = 10
avg_dll_rank = .0
avg_ll_rank = .0
avg_dll_corr = .0
avg_ll_corr = .0
dll_rank_diff = .0
ll_rank_diff = .0
for kk in range(N):
result = Simulator.simulate_SI_decay_confirm_relicexp_hetero(
underlying=netwrk,
theta=theta,
relic=relic,
confirm=.0,
decay=decay,
infected={1},
tmax=300,
dt=0.01,
thetas=thetas)
result['outcome'][1] = .0
#print(result)
est.set_diffusion_data(netman.get_dos_filepath(),
counters={},
outcome=result['outcome'],
echo=False)
estimation = est.llmax_for_diffusion_noconfirm(theta,
decay,
relic,
disp=False)
#print('Max: ' + str(estimation))
dlldthetas = est.dlldthetas_noconfirm(estimation['theta'],
estimation['decay'],
estimation['relic'],
result['outcome'].keys(), 300)
outcome_sorted = list(result['outcome'].items())
outcome_sorted.sort(key=lambda i: i[1])
out_thetas = []
llthetas_sorted = []
llthetas = {}
dlldthetas_sorted = []
for node_id in result['outcome'].keys():
out_thetas.append(thetas[node_id])
dlldthetas_sorted.append(dlldthetas[node_id])
llthetas[
node_id] = est.llmax_for_diffusion_noconfirm_by_node_theta(
node_id,
estimation['theta'],
estimation['decay'],
estimation['relic'], (0.0001, 1.),
disp=False)
llthetas_sorted.append(llthetas[node_id])
avg_dll_corr += sp_stat.spearmanr(out_thetas, dlldthetas_sorted)[0]
avg_ll_corr += sp_stat.spearmanr(out_thetas, llthetas_sorted)[0]
print('true_rank: ' + str(true_rank))
l = list(dlldthetas.items())
l.sort(key=lambda i: i[1])
for pp in range(len(l)):
if l[pp][0] == targ_id:
print('dll_rank: ' + str(pp))
avg_dll_rank += pp
dll_rank_diff += abs(pp - true_rank)
break
l = list(llthetas.items())
l.sort(key=lambda i: i[1])
for pp in range(len(l)):
if l[pp][0] == targ_id:
print('ll_rank: ' + str(pp) + ' est_theta: ' +
str(l[pp][1]) + ' theta: ' + str(estimation['theta']))
avg_ll_rank += pp
ll_rank_diff += abs(pp - true_rank)
break
print('avg_dll_rank: ' + str(avg_dll_rank / N))
print('avg_dll_corr: ' + str(avg_dll_corr / N))
print('avg_ll_rank: ' + str(avg_ll_rank / N))
print('avg_ll_corr: ' + str(avg_ll_corr / N))
print('true_rank: ' + str(true_rank))
print('dll_rank_diff ' + str(dll_rank_diff / N))
print('ll_rank_diff ' + str(ll_rank_diff / N))