def get_upper(self, t, window_size=1):
if len(self.RHS) > 0:
if isinstance(self.RHS, (list, set)):
return max([r.get_upper(common.window_index(t, window_size)) for r in self.RHS])
elif isinstance(self.RHS, dict):
return max([self.RHS[r].get_upper(common.window_index(t, window_size)) for r in self.RHS.keys()])
else:
return self.LHS[-1].get_upper(common.window_index(t, window_size))
def get_midpoint(self, t, window_size=1):
if len(self.RHS) > 0:
if isinstance(self.RHS, (list, set)):
tmp = [r.get_midpoint(common.window_index(t, window_size)) for r in self.RHS]
elif isinstance(self.RHS, dict):
tmp = [self.RHS[r].get_midpoint(common.window_index(t, window_size)) for r in self.RHS.keys()]
return sum(tmp) / len(tmp)
else:
return self.LHS[-1].get_midpoint(common.window_index(t, window_size))
def get_membership(self, data, t, window_size=1):
ret = 0.0
if isinstance(self.LHS, (list, set)):
#assert len(self.LHS) == len(data)
ret = min([self.LHS[ct].membership(dat, common.window_index(t - (self.order - ct), window_size))
for ct, dat in enumerate(data)])
else:
ret = self.LHS.membership(data, common.window_index(t, window_size))
return ret
def _affected_flrgs(self, sample, k, time_displacement, window_size):
# print("input: " + str(ndata[k]))
affected_flrgs = []
affected_flrgs_memberships = []
lags = {}
for ct, dat in enumerate(sample):
tdisp = common.window_index((k + time_displacement) - (self.order - ct), window_size)
sel = [ct for ct, key in enumerate(self.partitioner.ordered_sets)
if self.sets[key].membership(dat, tdisp) > 0.0]
if len(sel) == 0:
sel.append(common.check_bounds_index(dat, self.partitioner, tdisp))
lags[ct] = sel
# Build the tree with all possible paths
root = tree.FLRGTreeNode(None)
tree.build_tree_without_order(root, lags, 0)
# Trace the possible paths and build the PFLRG's
for p in root.paths():
path = list(reversed(list(filter(None.__ne__, p))))
flrg = HighOrderNonStationaryFLRG(self.order)
for kk in path:
flrg.append_lhs(self.sets[self.partitioner.ordered_sets[kk]])
affected_flrgs.append(flrg)
# affected_flrgs_memberships.append_rhs(flrg.get_membership(sample, disp))
# print(flrg.get_key())
# the FLRG is here because of the bounds verification
mv = []
for ct, dat in enumerate(sample):
td = common.window_index((k + time_displacement) - (self.order - ct), window_size)
tmp = flrg.LHS[ct].membership(dat, td)
mv.append(tmp)
# print(mv)
affected_flrgs_memberships.append(np.prod(mv))
return [affected_flrgs, affected_flrgs_memberships]
def get_membership(self, data, *args):
sets, t, window_size = self.unpack_args(*args)
ret = 0.0
if isinstance(self.LHS, (list, set)):
ret = min([
sets[self.LHS[ct]].membership(
dat, common.window_index(t - (self.order - ct),
window_size))
for ct, dat in enumerate(data)
])
else:
ret = self.LHS.membership(data,
common.window_index(t, window_size))
return ret
def get_upper(self, *args):
sets, t, window_size = self.unpack_args(*args)
if len(self.RHS) > 0:
if isinstance(self.RHS, (list, set)):
return max([
sets[r].get_upper(common.window_index(t, window_size))
for r in self.RHS
])
elif isinstance(self.RHS, dict):
return max([
sets[r].get_upper(common.window_index(t, window_size))
for r in self.RHS.keys()
])
else:
return sets[self.LHS[-1]].get_upper(
common.window_index(t, window_size))
def get_midpoint(self, *args):
sets, t, window_size = self.unpack_args(*args)
if len(self.RHS) > 0:
if isinstance(self.RHS, (list, set)):
tmp = [
sets[r].get_midpoint(common.window_index(t, window_size))
for r in self.RHS
]
elif isinstance(self.RHS, dict):
tmp = [
sets[r].get_midpoint(common.window_index(t, window_size))
for r in self.RHS.keys()
]
return sum(tmp) / len(tmp)
else:
return sets[self.LHS[-1]].get_midpoint(
common.window_index(t, window_size))
def generate_flrg(self, data, **kwargs):
l = len(data)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
for k in np.arange(self.order, l):
if self.dump: print("FLR: " + str(k))
sample = data[k - self.order: k]
disp = common.window_index(k, window_size)
rhs = [self.sets[key] for key in self.partitioner.ordered_sets
if self.sets[key].membership(data[k], disp) > 0.0]
if len(rhs) == 0:
rhs = [common.check_bounds(data[k], self.partitioner, disp)]
lags = {}
for o in np.arange(0, self.order):
tdisp = common.window_index(k - (self.order - o), window_size)
lhs = [self.sets[key] for key in self.partitioner.ordered_sets
if self.sets[key].membership(sample[o], tdisp) > 0.0]
if len(lhs) == 0:
lhs = [common.check_bounds(sample[o], self.partitioner, tdisp)]
lags[o] = lhs
root = tree.FLRGTreeNode(None)
tree.build_tree_without_order(root, lags, 0)
# Trace the possible paths
for p in root.paths():
flrg = HighOrderNonStationaryFLRG(self.order)
path = list(reversed(list(filter(None.__ne__, p))))
for c, e in enumerate(path, start=0):
flrg.append_lhs(e)
if flrg.get_key() not in self.flrgs:
self.flrgs[flrg.get_key()] = flrg;
for st in rhs:
self.flrgs[flrg.get_key()].append_rhs(st)
def forecast_interval(self, ndata, **kwargs):
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement", 0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
l = len(ndata)
ret = []
for k in np.arange(0, l):
# print("input: " + str(ndata[k]))
tdisp = common.window_index(k + time_displacement, window_size)
affected_sets = [
[self.sets[key], self.sets[key].membership(ndata[k], tdisp)]
for key in self.partitioner.ordered_sets
if self.sets[key].membership(ndata[k], tdisp) > 0.0
]
if len(affected_sets) == 0:
affected_sets.append([
common.check_bounds(ndata[k], self.partitioner, tdisp), 1.0
])
upper = []
lower = []
if len(affected_sets) == 1:
aset = affected_sets[0][0]
if aset.name in self.flrgs:
lower.append(self.flrgs[aset.name].get_lower(tdisp))
upper.append(self.flrgs[aset.name].get_upper(tdisp))
else:
lower.append(aset.get_lower(tdisp))
upper.append(aset.get_upper(tdisp))
else:
for aset in affected_sets:
if aset[0].name in self.flrgs:
lower.append(
self.flrgs[aset[0].name].get_lower(tdisp) *
aset[1])
upper.append(
self.flrgs[aset[0].name].get_upper(tdisp) *
aset[1])
else:
lower.append(aset[0].get_lower(tdisp) * aset[1])
upper.append(aset[0].get_upper(tdisp) * aset[1])
ret.append([sum(lower), sum(upper)])
return ret
def forecast_interval(self, ndata, **kwargs):
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement", 0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
l = len(ndata)
ret = []
for k in np.arange(self.order, l + 1):
sample = ndata[k - self.order: k]
affected_flrgs, affected_flrgs_memberships = self._affected_flrgs(sample, k,
time_displacement, window_size)
# print([str(k) for k in affected_flrgs])
# print(affected_flrgs_memberships)
upper = []
lower = []
tdisp = common.window_index(k + time_displacement, window_size)
if len(affected_flrgs) == 0:
aset = common.check_bounds(sample[-1], self.sets, tdisp)
lower.append(aset.get_lower(tdisp))
upper.append(aset.get_upper(tdisp))
elif len(affected_flrgs) == 1:
_flrg = affected_flrgs[0]
if _flrg.get_key() in self.flrgs:
lower.append(self.flrgs[_flrg.get_key()].get_lower(tdisp))
upper.append(self.flrgs[_flrg.get_key()].get_upper(tdisp))
else:
lower.append(_flrg.LHS[-1].get_lower(tdisp))
upper.append(_flrg.LHS[-1].get_upper(tdisp))
else:
for ct, aset in enumerate(affected_flrgs):
if aset.get_key() in self.flrgs:
lower.append(self.flrgs[aset.get_key()].get_lower(tdisp) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
upper.append(self.flrgs[aset.get_key()].get_upper(tdisp) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
else:
lower.append(aset.LHS[-1].get_lower(tdisp) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
upper.append(aset.LHS[-1].get_upper(tdisp) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
ret.append([sum(lower), sum(upper)])
return ret
def forecast(self, ndata, **kwargs):
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement", 0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
l = len(ndata)
ret = []
for k in np.arange(0, l):
tdisp = common.window_index(k + time_displacement, window_size)
affected_sets = [
[self.sets[key], self.sets[key].membership(ndata[k], tdisp)]
for key in self.partitioner.ordered_sets
if self.sets[key].membership(ndata[k], tdisp) > 0.0
]
if len(affected_sets) == 0:
affected_sets.append([
common.check_bounds(ndata[k], self.partitioner, tdisp), 1.0
])
tmp = []
if len(affected_sets) == 1:
aset = affected_sets[0][0]
if aset.name in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(self.flrgs[aset.name].get_midpoint(tdisp))
else:
tmp.append(aset.get_midpoint(tdisp))
else:
for aset in affected_sets:
if aset[0].name in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(
self.flrgs[aset[0].name].get_midpoint(tdisp) *
aset[1])
else:
tmp.append(aset[0].get_midpoint(tdisp) * aset[1])
pto = sum(tmp)
#print(pto)
ret.append(pto)
return ret
def forecast(self, ndata, **kwargs):
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement",0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
l = len(ndata)
ret = []
for k in np.arange(self.order, l+1):
sample = ndata[k - self.order: k]
affected_flrgs, affected_flrgs_memberships = self._affected_flrgs(sample, k,
time_displacement, window_size)
#print([str(k) for k in affected_flrgs])
#print(affected_flrgs_memberships)
tmp = []
tdisp = common.window_index(k + time_displacement, window_size)
if len(affected_flrgs) == 0:
tmp.append(common.check_bounds(sample[-1], self.sets, tdisp))
elif len(affected_flrgs) == 1:
flrg = affected_flrgs[0]
if flrg.get_key() in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(self.flrgs[flrg.get_key()].get_midpoint(tdisp))
else:
tmp.append(flrg.LHS[-1].get_midpoint(tdisp))
else:
for ct, aset in enumerate(affected_flrgs):
if aset.get_key() in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(self.flrgs[aset.get_key()].get_midpoint(tdisp) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
else:
tmp.append(aset.LHS[-1].get_midpoint(tdisp)*
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
pto = sum(tmp)
#print(pto)
ret.append(pto)
return ret
def forecast(self, ndata, **kwargs):
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement", 0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
no_update = kwargs.get("no_update", False)
l = len(ndata)
ret = []
for k in np.arange(0, l):
sample = ndata[k]
if self.method == 'unconditional':
perturb = common.window_index(k + time_displacement,
window_size)
elif self.method == 'conditional':
if not no_update:
perturb = self.conditional_perturbation_factors(sample)
else:
perturb = [[0, 1]
for k in np.arange(len(self.partitioner.sets))]
affected_sets = self._affected_sets(sample, perturb)
numerator = []
denominator = []
if len(affected_sets) == 1:
ix = affected_sets[0][0]
aset = self.partitioner.ordered_sets[ix]
if aset in self.flrgs:
numerator.append(self.flrgs[aset].get_midpoint(
self.sets, perturb[ix]))
else:
fuzzy_set = self.sets[aset]
numerator.append(fuzzy_set.get_midpoint(perturb[ix]))
denominator.append(1)
else:
for aset in affected_sets:
ix = aset[0]
fs = self.partitioner.ordered_sets[ix]
tdisp = perturb[ix]
if fs in self.flrgs:
numerator.append(
self.flrgs[fs].get_midpoint(self.sets, tdisp) *
aset[1])
else:
fuzzy_set = self.sets[fs]
numerator.append(
fuzzy_set.get_midpoint(tdisp) * aset[1])
denominator.append(aset[1])
if sum(denominator) > 0:
pto = sum(numerator) / sum(denominator)
else:
pto = sum(numerator)
ret.append(pto)
if self.method == 'conditional' and not no_update:
self.forecasts.append(pto)
self.residuals.append(self.inputs[-1] - self.forecasts[-1])
self.inputs.append(sample)
self.inputs.pop(0)
self.forecasts.pop(0)
self.residuals.pop(0)
return ret
def forecast(self, ndata, **kwargs):
explain = kwargs.get('explain', False)
time_displacement = kwargs.get("time_displacement", 0)
window_size = kwargs.get("window_size", 1)
no_update = kwargs.get("no_update", False)
ret = []
l = len(ndata) if not explain else self.max_lag + 1
if l < self.max_lag:
return ndata
elif l == self.max_lag:
l += 1
for k in np.arange(self.max_lag, l):
sample = ndata[k - self.max_lag:k]
if self.method == 'unconditional':
perturb = common.window_index(k + time_displacement,
window_size)
elif self.method == 'conditional':
if no_update:
perturb = [[0, 1]
for k in np.arange(self.partitioner.partitions)]
else:
perturb = self.conditional_perturbation_factors(sample[-1])
affected_flrgs, affected_flrgs_memberships = self._affected_flrgs(
sample, perturb)
tmp = []
perturb2 = perturb[0]
if len(affected_flrgs) == 0:
tmp.append(
common.check_bounds(sample[-1], self.partitioner.sets,
perturb2))
elif len(affected_flrgs) == 1:
flrg = affected_flrgs[0]
if flrg.get_key() in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(self.flrgs[flrg.get_key()].get_midpoint(
self.partitioner.sets, perturb2))
else:
fset = self.partitioner.sets[flrg.LHS[-1]]
ix = self.partitioner.ordered_sets.index(flrg.LHS[-1])
tmp.append(fset.get_midpoint(perturb[ix]))
else:
for ct, aset in enumerate(affected_flrgs):
if aset.get_key() in self.flrgs:
tmp.append(self.flrgs[aset.get_key()].get_midpoint(
self.partitioner.sets, perturb2) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
else:
fset = self.partitioner.sets[aset.LHS[-1]]
ix = self.partitioner.ordered_sets.index(aset.LHS[-1])
tmp.append(
fset.get_midpoint(perturb[ix]) *
affected_flrgs_memberships[ct])
pto = sum(tmp)
ret.append(pto)
if self.method == 'conditional' and not no_update:
self.forecasts.append(pto)
self.residuals.append(self.inputs[-1] - self.forecasts[-1])
self.inputs.extend(sample)
for g in range(self.order):
self.inputs.pop(0)
self.forecasts.pop(0)
self.residuals.pop(0)
return ret