def predict_wins_by_ratio(data_cut = 100, plot = True):
players, _ = tools.create_stats(data_cut)
_, games = tools.read_db()
predictions = []
results = []
for game in games[data_cut:]:
team_red = Team()
team_black = Team()
for player in players:
if player['id'] == game['red0'] or player['id'] == game['red1']:
team_red.add_player(player)
if player['id'] == game['black0'] or player['id'] == game['black1']:
team_black.add_player(player)
probability = team_red.strength_by_goals / (team_red.strength_by_goals + team_black.strength_by_goals)
predictions.append(probability)
if (game['score_red'] > game['score_black']):
results.append(1)
else:
results.append(0)
predictions = np.array(predictions)
results = np.array(results)
MAE = np.mean(np.abs(predictions - results))
if plot:
print MAE
return MAE
def predict_random_goals(data_cut = 100, plot = True):
players, _ = tools.create_stats(data_cut)
_, games = tools.read_db()
predictions = []
results = []
for game in games[data_cut:]:
team_red = Team()
team_black = Team()
for player in players:
if player['id'] == game['red0'] or player['id'] == game['red1']:
team_red.add_player(player)
if player['id'] == game['black0'] or player['id'] == game['black1']:
team_black.add_player(player)
if np.random.rand() > 0.5:
predictions.append(6 - np.random.randint(0,6))
else:
predictions.append(np.random.randint(0,6) - 6)
if (game['score_red'] > game['score_black']):
results.append(1)
else:
results.append(0)
predictions = np.array(predictions)
results = np.array(results)
MAE = np.mean(np.abs(predictions - results))
if plot:
print MAE
return MAE
def predict_goals_by_effictivity(data_cut = 100, plot = True):
players, _ = tools.create_stats(data_cut)
_, games = tools.read_db()
predictions = []
results = []
for game in games[data_cut:]:
team_red = Team()
team_black = Team()
for player in players:
if player['id'] == game['red0'] or player['id'] == game['red1']:
team_red.add_player(player)
if player['id'] == game['black0'] or player['id'] == game['black1']:
team_black.add_player(player)
effectivity_red = team_red.offensive_strength_by_time # * team_black.defensive_strength_by_time
effectivity_black = team_black.offensive_strength_by_time # * team_red.defensive_strength_by_time
if effectivity_red > effectivity_black:
predicted_score_black = effectivity_black / effectivity_red * 6
predictions.append(6 - predicted_score_black)
if plot:
print "Prediction: red wins 6:" + str(int(round(predicted_score_black))), " real outcome: ", str(game['score_red']) + ":" + str(game['score_black'])
else:
predicted_score_red = effectivity_red / effectivity_black * 6
predictions.append(predicted_score_red - 6)
if plot:
print "Prediction: black wins 6:" + str(int(round(predicted_score_red))), " real outcome: ", str(game['score_black']) + ":" + str(game['score_red'])
results.append(game['score_red'] - game['score_black'])
predictions = np.array(predictions)
results = np.array(results)
MAE = np.mean(np.abs(predictions - results))
if plot:
print MAE
return MAE
def loadReminders(self):
try:
self.reminders = read_db(self, 'tell')
except GrumbleError:
self.reminders = {}
def load_database(phenny):
try:
return read_db(phenny, 'reminders')
except GrumbleError:
return {}
def loadAliases(self):
try:
nick_aliases = read_db(self, 'alias')
except GrumbleError:
nick_aliases = []
def load_database(phenny):
try:
return read_db(phenny, 'reminders')
except GrumbleError:
return {}
def loadAliases(self):
try:
nick_aliases = read_db(self, 'alias')
except GrumbleError:
nick_aliases = []
def loadReminders(self):
try:
self.reminders = read_db(self, 'tell')
except GrumbleError:
self.reminders = {}
def setup(phenny):
try:
phenny.queue_data = read_db(phenny, 'queue')
except GrumbleError:
logger.debug('queue database read failed, initializing data')
phenny.queue_data = {}
def setup(phenny):
try:
phenny.queue_data = read_db(phenny, 'queue')
except GrumbleError:
logger.debug('queue database read failed, initializing data')
phenny.queue_data = {}