def initialize_index(self):
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t = v[-8:]
self.index_composition[index_t] = pd.read_hdf(
commons.data_path + 'PCT_' + index_t + '.h5',
'table',
mode='r')
def play_for_a_day(idx_external, dix, alpha, gamma, sim_uuid, train_uuid,
scenario):
global f, m
temperature = 1.5
state = dict()
proposed_action = dict()
reward = dict()
dba.db_main.flush()
index_t = commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
for ticker in commons.getHistSp500Composition(
commons.date_index_external[dix])[index_t]:
reward[ticker] = 9999
if f.trained(train_uuid, ticker):
state[ticker] = f.get_forecast_state(ticker, dix)
proposed_action[ticker] = dba.get_softmax_action(
ticker, state[ticker], temperature, scenario)
price = f.get_order_price(ticker, state[ticker], dix,
proposed_action[ticker],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix))
dba.log_recommendation(sim_uuid, dix, ticker,
proposed_action[ticker], price,
state[ticker]['12dd_Close'],
m.get_index_portfolio(index_t, dix)[ticker])
else:
dba.log_recommendation(sim_uuid, dix, ticker, 9, 0, 0,
m.get_index_portfolio(index_t, dix)[ticker])
def align_index_portfolio(self, dix):
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
#sell everything and repurchase with the current index composition
index_t = v[-8:]
cash = 0
for ticker, volume in self.portfolio[index_t].items():
cash += volume * self.get_closing_price(ticker, dix)
self.initialize_portfolio(k, dix, cash)
def __init__(self,
dba,
initial_budget,
firstDix,
earliest=False,
portfolioValue=dict()):
self.dba = dba
self.transaction_price = 10
self.initialize_index()
self.data_sp500 = pd.read_hdf(commons.data_path + 'WIKI_SP500.h5',
'table')
self.data_sp500 = self.data_sp500.fillna(method='backfill')
startdate = dict()
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
if earliest:
startdate[v[-8:]] = min(self.index_composition[v[-8:]].index)
else:
startdate[v[-8:]] = commons.date_index_external[firstDix]
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t = v[-8:]
if startdate[index_t] <= min(
self.index_composition[index_t].index):
startdate[index_t] = min(self.index_composition[index_t].index)
if startdate[index_t] not in self.index_composition[index_t].index:
while startdate[index_t] not in self.index_composition[
index_t].index:
startdate[index_t] = startdate[index_t] + dt.timedelta(
days=1)
if portfolioValue == dict():
self.initialize_portfolio(
k, commons.date_index_internal[startdate[index_t]],
initial_budget)
else:
self.initialize_portfolio(
k, commons.date_index_internal[startdate[index_t]],
portfolioValue[index_t])
self.startdates[index_t] = startdate[index_t]
def initialize_portfolio(self, idx_external, dix, budget):
index_t = commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
self.portfolio[index_t] = dict()
self.portfolio[index_t] = self.get_index_portfolio(index_t, dix)
portfolio = dict()
for ticker, pct in self.portfolio[index_t].items():
portfolio[ticker] = pct * budget / self.get_closing_price(
ticker, dix)
self.portfolio[index_t] = portfolio
try:
a = self.portfolio_log[index_t]
except KeyError:
self.portfolio_log[index_t] = pd.DataFrame()
def calcFundamentals(self,ticker,indicator):
comp=commons.getSp500CompositionAll()
for k,v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
columns=list([])
for t in comp[k]:
columns.append(str(t)+indicator)
if self.df1st_date[ticker]<min(self.dfFundamentals.index):
min_date=min(self.dfFundamentals.index)
else:
min_date=self.df1st_date[ticker]
ret=self.dfFundamentals.ix[min_date:,columns].mean(axis=1).to_frame()
ret.columns=list([str(indicator).strip('_ARQ')])
return ret
def play_for_a_day(idx_external,dix,sim_uuid,minTraining,offsetTraining):
global rQ
state=dict()
proposed_action=dict()
dba.db_main.flush()
index_t=commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
for ticker in commons.getHistSp500Composition(commons.date_index_external[dix])[index_t]:
if rQ.trained(ticker):
state[ticker]=rQ.get_forecast_state(ticker,dix)
proposed_action[ticker]=rQ.get_best_action(state[ticker])
price=rQ.get_order_price(ticker,state[ticker],dix,proposed_action[ticker])
dba.log_recommendation(minTraining,offsetTraining,sim_uuid,dix,ticker,proposed_action[ticker],price,state[ticker]['12dd_Close'],rQ.get_index_portfolio(index_t,dix)[ticker],rQ.getModelAccuracy(ticker,'1dd_Close'))
else:
dba.log_recommendation(minTraining,offsetTraining,sim_uuid,dix,ticker,9,[0,0,0],0,rQ.get_index_portfolio(index_t,dix)[ticker],0)
def readPortfolio():
globals portfolio,portfolioValue,cash
with open(daily_path+'currentPortfolio.csv','r') as csvfile:
csvreader=csv.reader(csvfile, delimiter=',')
lI=0
for k,v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t=v[-8:]
portfolio[index_t]=dict()
for row in csvreader:
if lI>0:
if dt.datetime.strptime(row[0],'%m/%d/%Y')==commons.idx_today:
if row[2]=='PORTFOLIOCASH':
cash[row[1]]=int(row[3])
elif row[2]=='PORTFOLIOVALUE':
portfolioValue[row[1]]=int(row[3])
else:
portfolio[row[1]][row[2]]=int(row[3])
else:
raise 'currentPortfolioWrongDate'
iI+=1
csvfile.close()
def index_portfolio_value(self, idx_external, dix):
index_t = commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
value = 0
for ticker, volume in self.portfolio[index_t].items():
value += volume * self.get_closing_price(ticker, dix)
return value
for dix in range(firstDate,
commons.date_index_internal[commons.max_date['WIKI_SP500']]):
print 'date;', commons.date_index_external[dix]
if (dix - 14) % 20 == 0:
start = time.time()
train_uuid = uuid.uuid1().hex
#train_uuid='2bf75d91cdb411e68bbbc82a142bddcf'
print 'Retraining the models. Date:', commons.date_index_external[
dix], 'training guid:', train_uuid
newTraining = cl_trainSection(dix - 1, train_uuid, scenario, offset,
True)
newTraining.train()
f = forecast(m, train_uuid)
end = time.time()
print 'Training took', end - start, 'seconds.'
if commons.date_index_external[dix].year != runningyear:
maxsim = getMaxSimrun(dba)
print 'Simulation for year:', commons.date_index_external[
dix].year, 'started. Simulation:', maxsim
runningyear = commons.date_index_external[dix].year
p.log_portfolio(dix, sim_uuid)
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t = v[-8:]
play_for_a_day(k, dix, alpha, gamma, sim_uuid, train_uuid, scenario)
import extract_stats
def play_for_a_day(idx_external, dix, alpha, gamma, sim_uuid, train_uuid,
scenario):
global f
temperature = 1.5
state = dict()
proposed_action = dict()
order_entry = dict()
order_random = dict()
order_untrained = dict()
reward = dict()
action = dict()
dba.db_main.flush()
random_action = dict()
index_t = commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
sp500_ticker = commons.getHistSp500Ticker(commons.date_index_external[dix])
for ticker in commons.getHistSp500Composition(
commons.date_index_external[dix])[index_t]:
reward[ticker] = 9999
if f.trained(train_uuid, ticker):
if scenario == 'q_learning':
try:
state[ticker] = new_state[ticker]
except KeyError:
state[ticker] = f.get_forecast_state(ticker, dix)
else:
state[ticker] = f.get_forecast_state(ticker, dix)
proposed_action[ticker] = dba.get_softmax_action(
ticker, state[ticker], temperature, scenario)
max_q_action = dba.get_max_q(ticker, state[ticker])
if scenario == 'q_learning':
if max_q_action[2] == False and max_q_action[
1] == proposed_action[ticker]:
random_action[ticker] = False
else:
random_action[ticker] = True
else:
random_action[ticker] = False
##compare max_axction and proposed action and if different then set volume to 1
next_dix = dix + 1
#sell
if proposed_action[ticker] == commons.action_code['sell']:
try:
if random_action[ticker] == False:
vol = p.portfolio[index_t][ticker]
else:
vol = 1
if vol > 0:
opening_price = m.get_opening_price(ticker, next_dix)
forecast_price = f.get_order_price(
ticker, state[ticker], dix,
proposed_action[ticker],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix))
# if opening_price>(forecast_price*.997):
# forecast_price=opening_price*.997
reward[ticker] = p.execute_order(
ticker, vol, next_dix, forecast_price,
proposed_action[ticker],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix),
state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
dba.log_recommendation(sim_uuid, dix, ticker,
commons.action_code['sell'],
vol)
except KeyError:
p.portfolio[index_t][ticker] = 0
print 'New Ticker: ', ticker
#buy, but only after everythin has been sold
if proposed_action[ticker] == commons.action_code['buy']:
if random_action[ticker] == False:
order_entry[ticker] = m.get_opening_price(ticker, next_dix)
else:
order_random[ticker] = m.get_opening_price(
ticker, next_dix)
dba.log_recommendation(sim_uuid, dix, ticker,
commons.action_code['buy'])
else: #for the tickers that are not trained yet align with the index
action[ticker] = f.getActionUntrained(p, index_t, ticker, dix)
if action[ticker][0] == commons.action_code['buy']:
order_untrained[ticker] = m.get_opening_price(ticker, next_dix)
elif action[ticker][0] == commons.action_code['sell']:
x = p.execute_order(ticker, action[1], next_dix,
m.get_opening_price(ticker, next_dix),
commons.action_code['sell'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix),
state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
#allocate money for the randoms
for ticker, opening_price in order_random.items():
forecast_price = f.get_order_price(ticker, state[ticker], dix,
commons.action_code['buy'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix))
if order_random[ticker] * 1.01 < forecast_price:
forecast_price = order_random[ticker] * 1.01
reward[ticker] = p.execute_order(ticker, 1, next_dix, forecast_price,
commons.action_code['buy'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix),
state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
#allocate for alignment
for ticker, opening_price in order_untrained.items():
x = p.execute_order(ticker, action[ticker][1], next_dix,
m.get_opening_price(ticker, next_dix),
commons.action_code['buy'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix), 0)
budget = dict()
for k, v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t = v[-8:]
budget[index_t] = p.cash[index_t]
for ticker, price in order_entry.items():
index_t = sp500_ticker[ticker]
budget[index_t] += p.portfolio[index_t][ticker] * m.get_closing_price(
ticker, dix)
#order book; realign the portfolio to the index according to buying recommendations
orderBook = p.get_portfolio_alignment(budget, order_entry, dix)
for ticker, volume in orderBook.items():
if volume < 0: #selling what we have too much of
forecast_price = f.get_order_price(
ticker, state[ticker], dix, commons.action_code['sell'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix))
# if order_entry[ticker]>(forecast_price*.997):
# forecast_price=order_entry[ticker]*.997
a = p.execute_order(ticker, 0 - volume, next_dix, forecast_price,
commons.action_code['sell'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix),
state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
for ticker, volume in orderBook.items():
if volume > 0:
if commons.data_sp500_1st_date[
ticker] <= commons.date_index_external[dix]:
forecast_price = f.get_order_price(
ticker, state[ticker], dix, commons.action_code['buy'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker, dix))
if order_entry[ticker] < forecast_price:
forecast_price = order_entry[ticker]
reward[ticker] = p.execute_order(
ticker, volume, next_dix,
forecast_price, commons.action_code['buy'],
m.get_closing_price(ticker,
dix), state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
dba.log_recommendation(sim_uuid, dix, ticker,
commons.action_code['buy'], volume)
#on the way to the next q
dix += 1
if scenario == 'q_learning':
for ticker in commons.getHistSp500Composition(
commons.date_index_external[dix])[index_t]:
if f.trained(train_uuid, ticker):
new_state[ticker] = f.get_forecast_state(ticker, dix)
try:
if reward[ticker] != 9999:
newQ=dba.get_reward(ticker,state[ticker],proposed_action[ticker])+\
alpha*(reward[ticker]+gamma*dba.get_max_q(ticker,new_state[ticker])[0]-dba.get_reward(ticker,state[ticker],proposed_action[ticker]))
dba.update_q_table(ticker, state[ticker],
proposed_action[ticker], newQ, dix)
except KeyError:
p.portfolio[index_t][ticker] = 0
print 'Date:', dix, ' New Ticker:', ticker
def playForADay(idx_external,sim_uuid,train_uuid,scenario):
global f,refDix,refDate,tradeDix,tradeDate
temperature=1.5
state=dict()
proposed_action=dict()
order_entry=dict()
order_untrained=dict()
reward=dict()
action=dict()
dba.db_main.flush()
index_t=commons.getIndexCodes()[idx_external][-8:]
sp500_ticker=commons.getHistSp500Ticker(commons.date_index_external[refDix])
for ticker in commons.getHistSp500Composition(commons.date_index_external[refDix])[index_t]:
reward[ticker]=9999
if f.trained(train_uuid,ticker):
state[ticker]=f.get_forecast_state(ticker,refDix)
proposed_action[ticker]=dba.get_softmax_action(ticker,state[ticker],temperature,scenario)
#sell
if proposed_action[ticker]==commons.action_code['sell']:
vol=p.portfolio[index_t][ticker]
forecastPrice=f.get_order_price(ticker,state[ticker],refDix,proposed_action[ticker],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix))
x=p.execute_order(ticker,vol,dix,forecast_price,proposed_action[ticker],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,dix),state[ticker]['12dd_Close'],False)
logRecommendation(tradeDate,ticker,'sell',vol,forecastPrice,tradeDate,state[ticker]['12dd_Close'])
#buy, but only after everythin has been sold
if proposed_action[ticker]==commons.action_code['buy']:
order_entry[ticker]=0
else: #for the tickers that are not trained yet align with the index
action[ticker]=f.getActionUntrained(p,index_t,ticker,refDix)
if action[ticker][0]==commons.action_code['buy']:
order_untrained[ticker]=0
elif action[ticker][0]==commons.action_code['sell']:
x=p.execute_order(ticker,action[ticker][1],tradeDix,m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),\
commons.action_code['sell'],m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),0,False)
logRecommendation(tradeDate,ticker,'sellOpen',action[ticker][1],0,tradeDate,0)
#allocate for alignment
for ticker,opening_price in order_untrained.items():
x=p.execute_order(ticker,action[ticker][1],tradeDix,m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),\
commons.action_code['buy'],m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),0,False)
logRecommendation(tradeDate,ticker,'buyOpen',action[ticker][1],0,tradeDate,0)
budget=dict()
for k,v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t=v[-8:]
budget[index_t]=p.cash[index_t]
for ticker,price in order_entry.items():
index_t=sp500_ticker[ticker]
budget[index_t]+=p.portfolio[index_t][ticker]*m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix)
#order book; realign the portfolio to the index according to buying recommendations
orderBook=p.get_portfolio_alignment(budget,order_entry,refDix)
for ticker,volume in orderBook.items():
if volume<0: #selling what we have too much of
forecast_price=f.get_order_price(ticker,state[ticker],refDix,commons.action_code['sell'],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix))
x=p.execute_order(ticker,0-volume,tradeDix,forecast_price,commons.action_code['sell'],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),state[ticker]['12dd_Close'],False)
logRecommendation(tradeDate,ticker,'sell',volume,forecast_price,tradeDate,state['ticker']['12dd_Close'])
for ticker,volume in orderBook.items():
if volume>0:
if commons.data_sp500_1st_date[ticker]<=refDate:
forecast_price=f.get_order_price(ticker,state[ticker],refDix,commons.action_code['buy'],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix))
x=p.execute_order(ticker,volume,tradeDix,forecast_price,commons.action_code['buy'],\
m.get_closing_price(ticker,refDix),state[ticker]['12dd_Close'],False)
logRecommendation(tradeDate,ticker,'buy',volume,forecast_price,tradeDate,state['ticker']['12dd_Close'])
def initializeIndex(self):
for k,v in commons.getIndexCodes().items():
index_t=v[-8:]
self.indexComposition[index_t]=commons.read_dataframe(commons.data_path+'PCT_'+index_t+'.h5')
