def __init__(self,
y,
p=5):
RegressionModel.__init__(self,
y)
self.p = p
def __init__(self,
normalize=False,
balance=False,
tweet_threshold=0,
score=False,
dump_model=True):
"""
Import or train the regression model
"""
self.model = RegressionModel()
if not self.model.load():
training_set, testing_set = RegressionModel.load_datasets(
balance=balance, viral_threshold=tweet_threshold)
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION == True:
training_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(training_set)
testing_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(testing_set)
self.model.trainClassifier(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreClassifier(testing_set)
else:
self.model.trainRegression(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreRegression(testing_set)
if dump_model:
self.model.dump()
def __init__(self,
data,
p):
RegressionModel.__init__(self,
data)
self.p = p
def loadData(self):
'''
initialises the data and loads it from hdfs
and prepares the data.
'''
self.training_data, self.test_data = RegressionModel.load_datasets(
balance=True, viral_threshold=50000)
self.viral_threshold = 50000
# picking a subset of training data as training with full data takes a lot of time.
self.X_train = self.training_data[:30000, :-1]
self.Y_train = self.training_data[:30000, -1]
self.X_test = self.test_data[:, :-1]
self.Y_test = self.test_data[:, -1]
self.test_median = np.median(self.Y_test)
self.train_median = np.median(self.Y_train)
self.train_median = self.viral_threshold
self.test_median = self.viral_threshold
print "Test Median"
print self.test_median
print "Training Median"
print self.train_median
def loadData(self): ''' initialises the data and loads it from hdfs and prepares the data. ''' self.training_data, self.test_data = RegressionModel.load_datasets(balance= True, viral_threshold=50000) self.viral_threshold = 50000 # picking a subset of training data as training with full data takes a lot of time. self.X_train = self.training_data[:30000, :-1] self.Y_train = self.training_data[:30000,-1] self.X_test = self.test_data[:, :-1] self.Y_test = self.test_data[:, -1] self.test_median = np.median(self.Y_test) self.train_median = np.median(self.Y_train) self.train_median = self.viral_threshold self.test_median = self.viral_threshold print "Test Median" print self.test_median print "Training Median" print self.train_median
def __init__(self, normalize=False, balance=False, tweet_threshold=0, score=False, dump_model=True):
"""
Import or train the regression model
"""
self.model = RegressionModel()
if not self.model.load():
training_set, testing_set = RegressionModel.load_datasets(
balance=balance, viral_threshold=tweet_threshold)
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION == True:
training_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(training_set)
testing_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(testing_set)
self.model.trainClassifier(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreClassifier(testing_set)
else:
self.model.trainRegression(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreRegression(testing_set)
if dump_model:
self.model.dump()
class ViralityPrediction:
SCORE_PLOT_FILENAME = "hashtags_score.png"
# If CLASSIFICATION is set to True, classification is used, otherwise regression
CLASSIFICATION = True
# K defines the number of results in the Top-K virality predictions
K = 10
def __init__(self,
normalize=False,
balance=False,
tweet_threshold=0,
score=False,
dump_model=True):
"""
Import or train the regression model
"""
self.model = RegressionModel()
if not self.model.load():
training_set, testing_set = RegressionModel.load_datasets(
balance=balance, viral_threshold=tweet_threshold)
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION == True:
training_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(training_set)
testing_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(testing_set)
self.model.trainClassifier(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreClassifier(testing_set)
else:
self.model.trainRegression(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreRegression(testing_set)
if dump_model:
self.model.dump()
def predict(self, hashtags, hashtag_threshold=None):
"""
Return a dictionary containing for each hashtag its virality prediction
- hashtags: dictionary hashtag -> array of tweets features
- hashtag_threshold: if defined, the dictionary value will be a boolean
set at true if the hashtag goes viral, false otherwise.
If not defined, the value will be the number of retweets
Features are [followers_count, friends_count, listed_count,
statuses_count, hashtags_count, media_count, user_mention_count,
url_count, verified_account, is_a_retweet, tweet_length]
"""
values = {}
for key, value in hashtags.iteritems():
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION:
tweets_values = self.model.predictClassifier(value)
else:
tweets_values = self.model.predictRegression(value)
hashtag_value = sum(tweets_values)
if hashtag_threshold is not None:
if hashtag_value >= hashtag_threshold:
values[key] = 1
else:
values[key] = 0
else:
# Round to the nearest 10 below the current value
values[key] = max(0,
int(math.floor(hashtag_value / 10.0)) * 10)
return values
def score(self,
expected,
predicted,
labels=None,
showPlot=True,
savePlot=False):
if showPlot or savePlot:
x = np.arange(len(expected))
width = 0.8
ticks = x + x * width
fig = plt.figure()
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
bar1 = ax.bar(ticks, expected, color='green')
bar2 = ax.bar(ticks + width, predicted, color='blue')
ax.set_xlim(-width, (ticks + width)[-1] + 2 * width)
ax.set_ylim(0, max(max(expected), max(predicted)) * 1.05)
ax.set_xticks(ticks + width)
if labels is not None:
xtickNames = ax.set_xticklabels(labels)
plt.setp(xtickNames, rotation=45, fontsize=10)
ax.set_title('Expected and predicted retweet count per hashtag')
ax.legend((bar1[0], bar2[0]), ('Expected', 'Predicted'))
if savePlot:
plt.savefig(DataAnalyser.PLOT_DIR +
ViralityPrediction.SCORE_PLOT_FILENAME,
format='png')
if showPlot:
plt.show()
return np.mean(predicted - expected)**2
import pandas as pd
from regression import RegressionModel
model = RegressionModel()
print(model.predict())
print(model.predict(use_macro=False))
# year_prior = row['year']-years
# home_match = self.history_df.loc[self.history_df['home_id'] == row['home_id']]
# row_prior = home_match.loc[home_match['year'] == year_prior]
# # Break if not found
# if len(home_match)<2 or len(row_prior) < 1:
# break
# # Create new row with home data, prev_year, prev_value, prev_value
# row_prior = row_prior.drop("home_id", axis=1)
# row_prior = row_prior.drop("year", axis=1)
# row_prior = row_prior.values.tolist()[0]
# row_prior = [row['year'], row['value']] + row_prior
# # Add row to DataFrame
# row_series = pd.Series(row_prior, index=pred_df.columns)
# pred_df = pred_df.append(row_series, ignore_index=True)
class Election2016:
def __init__(self):
self.cfUntouched = pd.DataFrame()
def init(self):
self.loadDataSets()
self.preprocessDataSets()
self.candidateDataMapping = self.setupCandidates(self.data)
def runRegression(self):
self.regressor = RegressionModel(self.data, self.candidateDataMapping, self.testDataFrame)
# self.regressor.performRegression()
self.regressor.run()
def loadDataSets(self):
# self.cf = pd.read_csv(r'/Users/Jonas/OneDrive/Google Drive/Uni/UCB16/Machine Learning and Analytics/final_project/presidential-election-2016/2016_presidential_election_v5/county_facts.csv')
self.cf = pd.read_csv('../2016_presidential_election_v5/county_facts.csv')
# 2016 primary results
self.pr = pd.read_csv('../2016_presidential_election_v5/primary_results.csv')
# self.pr = pd.read_csv(r'/Users/Jonas/OneDrive/Google Drive/Uni/UCB16/Machine Learning and Analytics/final_project/presidential-election-2016/2016_presidential_election_v5/primary_results.csv')
# self.clusters = pd.read_csv(r'/Users/Jonas/OneDrive/Google Drive/Uni/UCB16/Machine Learning and Analytics/final_project/presidential-election-2016/visualization/clustersout.csv')
def getStateForFips(self,fips):
if self.cfUntouched.empty:
self.cfUntouched = pd.read_csv('../2016_presidential_election_v5/county_facts.csv')
state = self.cfUntouched[self.cfUntouched['fips'] == fips]['state_abbreviation']
if state.values:
return state.values[0]
else:
print "Invalid fips"
def encodeStrings(self, data):
# encode string as number for regression
le = preprocessing.LabelEncoder()
le.fit(data['state_abbreviation'])
states = le.transform(data['state_abbreviation'])
data['state_number'] = states
data.drop('state_abbreviation', axis = 1, inplace=True)
return data
def setupTestSet(self, data):
testDataFrame = data[data['candidate'].isnull()]
# testDataFrame.dropna(axis=1, inplace=True)
testDataFrame.drop('candidate', axis=1, inplace=True)
testDataFrame.fillna(value=0, inplace=True)
return testDataFrame
def preprocessDataSets(self):
# only consider the republican party
self.pr = self.pr[self.pr['party'] == 'Republican']
# identify states that have already voted
# statesAlreadyVoted = pr['state_abbreviation'].unique()
self.pr.drop('state_abbreviation', axis = 1, inplace=True)
# merge county facts with 2016 primary results
self.data = pd.merge(self.cf, self.pr, on='fips', how='left')
# data = pd.merge(cf, pr, on='fips', how='inner')
self.data = self.encodeStrings(self.data)
# removes information aggregated on state level
self.data = self.data[self.data.state_number != 0]
self.data = self.removeUnnecessaryFeatures(self.data)
# TODO check voted
# self.data['voted'] = 0
self.data['voted'] = 1
self.data.loc[self.data['candidate'].isnull(), 'voted'] = 0
self.testDataFrame = self.setupTestSet(self.data)
def removeUnnecessaryFeatures(self, data):
# remove unnecessary data
data.drop('area_name', axis = 1, inplace=True)
data.drop('county', axis = 1, inplace=True)
data.drop('state', axis = 1, inplace=True)
data.drop('party', axis = 1, inplace=True)
data.drop('votes', axis = 1, inplace=True)
return data
def setupCandidates(self, data):
# GOP candidates
candidates = ['Donald Trump', 'Ted Cruz', 'John Kasich']
# split up data for every candidate
trumpData = data[data['candidate'] == 'Donald Trump']
trumpData.drop('candidate', axis=1, inplace=True)
### 1881 rows
cruzData = data[data['candidate'] == 'Ted Cruz']
cruzData.drop('candidate', axis=1, inplace=True)
kasichData = data[data['candidate'] == 'John Kasich']
kasichData.drop('candidate', axis=1, inplace=True)
candidateDataMapping = {'Donald Trump' : trumpData, 'Ted Cruz' : cruzData, 'John Kasich' : kasichData}
return candidateDataMapping
def runRegression(self):
self.regressor = RegressionModel(self.data, self.candidateDataMapping, self.testDataFrame)
# self.regressor.performRegression()
self.regressor.run()
class ViralityPrediction:
SCORE_PLOT_FILENAME = "hashtags_score.png"
# If CLASSIFICATION is set to True, classification is used, otherwise regression
CLASSIFICATION = True
# K defines the number of results in the Top-K virality predictions
K = 10
def __init__(self, normalize=False, balance=False, tweet_threshold=0, score=False, dump_model=True):
"""
Import or train the regression model
"""
self.model = RegressionModel()
if not self.model.load():
training_set, testing_set = RegressionModel.load_datasets(
balance=balance, viral_threshold=tweet_threshold)
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION == True:
training_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(training_set)
testing_set = self.model.normaliseFeats(testing_set)
self.model.trainClassifier(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreClassifier(testing_set)
else:
self.model.trainRegression(training_set, normalize=normalize)
if score:
self.model.scoreRegression(testing_set)
if dump_model:
self.model.dump()
def predict(self, hashtags, hashtag_threshold=None):
"""
Return a dictionary containing for each hashtag its virality prediction
- hashtags: dictionary hashtag -> array of tweets features
- hashtag_threshold: if defined, the dictionary value will be a boolean
set at true if the hashtag goes viral, false otherwise.
If not defined, the value will be the number of retweets
Features are [followers_count, friends_count, listed_count,
statuses_count, hashtags_count, media_count, user_mention_count,
url_count, verified_account, is_a_retweet, tweet_length]
"""
values = {}
for key, value in hashtags.iteritems():
if ViralityPrediction.CLASSIFICATION:
tweets_values = self.model.predictClassifier(value)
else:
tweets_values = self.model.predictRegression(value)
hashtag_value = sum(tweets_values)
if hashtag_threshold is not None:
if hashtag_value >= hashtag_threshold:
values[key] = 1
else:
values[key] = 0
else:
# Round to the nearest 10 below the current value
values[key] = max(0, int(math.floor(hashtag_value / 10.0)) * 10)
return values
def score(self, expected, predicted, labels=None, showPlot=True, savePlot=False):
if showPlot or savePlot:
x = np.arange(len(expected))
width = 0.8
ticks = x + x * width
fig = plt.figure()
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
bar1 = ax.bar(ticks, expected, color='green')
bar2 = ax.bar(ticks + width, predicted, color='blue')
ax.set_xlim(-width, (ticks + width)[-1] + 2 * width)
ax.set_ylim(0, max(max(expected), max(predicted)) * 1.05)
ax.set_xticks(ticks + width)
if labels is not None:
xtickNames = ax.set_xticklabels(labels)
plt.setp(xtickNames, rotation=45, fontsize=10)
ax.set_title('Expected and predicted retweet count per hashtag')
ax.legend((bar1[0], bar2[0]), ('Expected', 'Predicted'))
if savePlot:
plt.savefig(DataAnalyser.PLOT_DIR + ViralityPrediction.SCORE_PLOT_FILENAME, format='png')
if showPlot:
plt.show()
return np.mean(predicted - expected) ** 2
