def analyzeTimeSeries(filename, max_lag, fraction_training):
""" Main function.
Analyze time series in 'filename' (assumed to be a CSV for now)
Create model with up to mag_lag lags
Use the first fraction_training of data for training and the
remainder for testing
"""
base_name = os.path.splitext(filename)[0]
regression_matrix_csv = base_name + '.regression.csv'
results_filename = base_name + '.results'
model_filename = base_name + '.model'
prediction_matrix_csv = base_name + '.prediction.csv'
""" Assume input file is a CSV with a header row """
time_series_data, header = csv.readCsvFloat2(filename, True)
""" Assume a weekly pattern """
number_training = (int(float(len(time_series_data))*fraction_training)//7)*7
print 'number_training', number_training, 'fraction_training', fraction_training,'len(time_series_data)',len(time_series_data)
assert(number_training > max_lag)
time_series = NP.transpose(NP.array(time_series_data))
describeNPArray('time_series', time_series)
training_time_series = NP.transpose(NP.array(time_series_data[:number_training]))
print 'training_time_series.shape', training_time_series.shape
t = NP.arange(time_series.shape[1])
training_t = NP.arange(training_time_series.shape[1])
num_series = training_time_series.shape[0]
num_rows = training_time_series.shape[1]
days_to_keep = [getDaysOfWeekToKeep(training_time_series[i,:]) for i in range(num_series)]
masks = [getDaysOfWeekMask(days_to_keep[i], time_series.shape[1]) for i in range(num_series)]
training_masks = [getDaysOfWeekMask(days_to_keep[i], num_rows) for i in range(num_series)]
trends = [getTrend(training_t, training_time_series[i,:], training_masks[i]) for i in range(num_series)]
x = [removeTrend1D(trends[i], training_t, training_time_series[i], training_masks[i]) for i in range(num_series)]
for i in range(num_series):
describeNPVector('x[%0d]'%i, x[i])
detrended_training_time_series = NP.zeros([num_series, x[0].shape[0]])
print 'detrended_training_time_series.shape', detrended_training_time_series.shape
for i in range(num_series):
print 'x[%0d].shape'%i, x[i].shape
detrended_training_time_series[i,:] = x[i]
print 'detrended_training_time_series.shape', detrended_training_time_series.shape
# filtered_time_series = NP.vstack([filterDaysOfWeek(training_time_series[i,:], days_to_keep[i]) for i in range(num_series)])
# print 'filtered_time_series.shape', filtered_time_series.shape
for i in range(num_series):
describeNPVector('detrended_training_time_series[%0d]'%i, detrended_training_time_series[i])
means, stddevs = timeSeriesToMatrixCsv(regression_matrix_csv, detrended_training_time_series, training_masks, max_lag)
print 'means', means
print 'stddevs', stddevs
run_weka.runMLPTrain(regression_matrix_csv, results_filename, model_filename, True, '-H 4')
coefficients = run_weka.getCoefficients(results_filename)
print '--------------------------------------------'
print 'coefficients', len(coefficients)
print coefficients
print '--------------------------------------------'
print 'means', len(means)
print means
print '--------------------------------------------'
print 'stddevs', len(stddevs)
print stddevs
print '--------------------------------------------'
#exit()
detrended_full_x = [removeTrend1D(trends[i], t, time_series[i], masks[i]) for i in range(num_series)]
detrended_time_series = NP.zeros([num_series, detrended_full_x[0].shape[0]])
print 'detrended_time_series.shape', detrended_time_series.shape
for i in range(num_series):
print 'full_x[%0d].shape'%i, detrended_full_x[i].shape
detrended_predictions = predictTimeSeries(coefficients, means, stddevs, t, detrended_full_x[0], detrended_full_x[1], number_training, max_lag, masks)
predictions = addTrend1D(trends[1], t, detrended_predictions, masks[1])
print '--------------------------------------------'
print 'predictions =', predictions.shape
# print predictions
full_x = [NP.array(time_series[i]) for i in range(num_series)]
print 't.shape', t.shape
print 'full_x[0].shape', full_x[0].shape
print 'full_x[1].shape', full_x[1].shape
print 'predictions.shape', predictions.shape
predicted_time_series = NP.vstack([t, full_x[0], full_x[1], predictions])
print 'predicted_time_series.shape', predicted_time_series.shape
# retrend !@#$\\
prediction_header = ['t', 'x', 'y', 'y_pred']
predicted_time_series_data = [[str(predicted_time_series[i,j])
for i in range(predicted_time_series.shape[0])]
for j in range(predicted_time_series.shape[1])]
csv.writeCsv(prediction_matrix_csv, predicted_time_series_data, prediction_header)
def runWekaOnTimeSeries(time_series_csv, max_lag, fraction_training):
""" Run Weka training a 2 column time series
by converting into a regression with max_lag x and y lags
per instance
fraction_training is the fraction of sample used for training
"""
base_name = os.path.splitext(time_series_csv)[0]
regression_matrix_csv = base_name + '.regression.csv'
results_filename = base_name + '.results'
model_filename = base_name + '.model'
predictions_filename = base_name + '.predict'
test_filename = base_name + '.test.csv'
evaluation_filename = base_name + '.evaluation.csv'
time_series_data,_ = csv.readCsvFloat2(time_series_csv, True)
number_training = (int(float(len(time_series_data))*fraction_training)//7)*7
print 'number_training', number_training, 'fraction_training', fraction_training,'len(time_series_data)',len(time_series_data)
assert(number_training > max_lag)
training_time_series = NP.transpose(NP.array(time_series_data[:number_training]))
print '1: training_time_series.shape', training_time_series.shape
if True:
days_downloads = getDaysOfWeekToKeep(training_time_series[0,:])
days_purchases = getDaysOfWeekToKeep(training_time_series[1,:])
training_time_series = NP.vstack([filterDaysOfWeek(training_time_series[0,:], days_downloads),
filterDaysOfWeek(training_time_series[1,:], days_purchases)])
print '2: training_time_series.shape', training_time_series.shape
if True:
timeSeriesToMatrixCsv(regression_matrix_csv, training_time_series, max_lag)
run_weka.runMLPTrain(regression_matrix_csv, results_filename, model_filename, True)
print 'number_training, training_time_series.shape[1]', number_training, training_time_series.shape[1]
number_training_x = number_training #- 5
prediction_data = CP.deepcopy(time_series_data)
prediction_data_downloads = [[row[0],0] for row in prediction_data]
for i in range(number_training_x, len(prediction_data)):
if i%7 in days_purchases:
prediction_array = NP.transpose(NP.array(prediction_data[i-max_lag:i+1]))
timeSeriesToMatrixCsv(test_filename, prediction_array, max_lag)
run_weka.runMLPPredict(test_filename, model_filename, predictions_filename)
prediction_list = run_weka.getPredictionsRegression(predictions_filename)
print 'predictions', prediction_list
prediction = prediction_list[0]['predicted']
if False:
prediction_array_downloads = NP.transpose(NP.array(prediction_data_downloads[i-max_lag:i+1]))
timeSeriesToMatrixCsv(test_filename, prediction_array_downloads, max_lag)
run_weka.runMLPPredict(test_filename, model_filename, predictions_filename)
prediction_list_downloads = run_weka.getPredictionsRegression(predictions_filename)
print 'predictions_downloads', prediction_list_downloads
prediction_downloads = prediction_list[0]['predicted']
else:
prediction = -1
prediction_downloads = -1
prediction_data[i][1] = prediction
#prediction_data[i] = [prediction_data[i][0], prediction, prediction_downloads]
evaluation_data = []
for i in range(len(prediction_data)-number_training_x):
if i%7 in days_purchases:
row = [0]*5
for j in [0,1]:
row[j] = time_series_data[number_training_x+i][j]
row[2] = prediction_data[number_training_x+i][1]
row[3] = abs(row[2]-row[1])
row[4] = row[3]/abs(row[2]+row[1]) if abs(row[2]+row[1]) else row[3]
evaluation_data.append([number_training_x+i]+row)
evaluation_header = ['i', 'x', 'y_actual', 'y_predicted', 'abs_error', 'normalized_error']
csv.writeCsv(evaluation_filename, evaluation_data, evaluation_header)