def test_marginalize():
c = FactorOperations.marginalize(f['b'], v[2])
assert np.allclose(c.values, [1., 1.], atol=epsilon)
c = FactorOperations.marginalize(f['z'], v[2])
sol = Factor.Factor([v[4], v[3]])
sol.fill_values([0.33, 0.05, 0.24, 0.51, 0.07, 0.39])
assert np.allclose(c.values, sol.values.T, atol=epsilon)
def mssg(self, from_v, to_w, isMax=False):
# collect all mssg arriving at v
mess = []
neighbors = self.adj[from_v]
for n in neighbors:
if n!=to_w:
pos = self.adj[n].index(from_v)
msg = self.delta[n][pos]
mess.append(msg)
# take the the initial Psi (and log if needed)
d = copy.copy(self.factors[from_v])
if isMax==True:
d.values = np.log(d.values)
# multiply/sum by incoming messages
for ms in mess:
if isMax==True:
d = FactorOperations.sum(d, ms, False)
else:
d = FactorOperations.multiply(d, ms, True)
# marginalized to setsep vars
for n in d.variables:
if n not in (self.box[from_v] & self.box[to_w]):
if isMax==True:
d = FactorOperations.max_marginalize(d, n)
else:
d = FactorOperations.marginalize(d, n)
return d
def test_complete_2():
v1 = Rvar.Rvar(1, 2)
v2 = Rvar.Rvar(2, 2)
v3 = Rvar.Rvar(3, 2)
v4 = Rvar.Rvar(4, 3)
v5 = Rvar.Rvar(5, 2)
d = Factor.Factor([v1])
d.fill_values([0.6, 0.4])
i = Factor.Factor([v2])
i.fill_values([0.7, 0.3]);
s = Factor.Factor([v3, v2])
s.fill_values([0.95, 0.05, 0.2, 0.8]);
g = Factor.Factor([v4, v1, v2])
g.fill_values([0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.05, 0.25, 0.7, 0.9, 0.08, 0.02, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2]);
l = Factor.Factor([v5, v4])
l.fill_values([0.1, 0.9, 0.4, 0.6, 0.99, 0.01]);
s = FactorOperations.observe(s, {v3:1}) # we observe high SAT
factors = [i, s, g, l]
a = d
for f in factors:
a = FactorOperations.multiply(a, f)
print a.variables, a.values.size
rvars = [v1, v3, v4, v5]
for v in rvars:
a = FactorOperations.marginalize(a, v)
print a.variables, a.values.size
assert np.allclose(a.values, [0.12727273, 0.87272727])
def eliminateVar(self, F, C, z):
# separate factors into two lists, those that use z (F_Cluster) and the rest
F_Cluster, F_Rest, Cluster_vars = [], [], []
for f in F.factors:
if z in f.variables:
F_Cluster += [f]
Cluster_vars += f.variables
else:
F_Rest += [f]
if F_Cluster!=[]:
Cluster_vars = tuple(sorted(set(Cluster_vars)))
# when computing tau of new node, check if it uses other nodes' taus
rows,cols = C['edges'].shape
C['edges'] = np.vstack([C['edges'], np.zeros((1,cols))])
C['edges'] = np.hstack([C['edges'], np.zeros((rows+1,1))])
pos = np.zeros(cols+1)
for n,node in enumerate(C['nodes']):
if node['tau'] in F_Cluster:
pos[n]=1
# create a new array of connecting node edges based on taus in common
C['edges'][-1,:] = pos
C['edges'][:,-1] = pos
# multiply the factors in Cluster... (lambda) ...and marginalize by z (tau)
tau = F_Cluster.pop(0)
for f in F_Cluster:
tau = FactorOperations.multiply(tau, f)
if tau.variables != [z]:
tau = FactorOperations.marginalize(tau, z)
# add to unused factor list the resulting tau ==> new factor list with var eliminated
F_Rest += [tau]
# update the edges (connect all vars inside new cluster, & disconnect the eliminated variable)
for vi in Cluster_vars:
for vj in Cluster_vars:
F.edges[F.allVars.index(vi), F.allVars.index(vj)] = 1
F.edges[F.allVars.index(z),:] = 0
F.edges[:, F.allVars.index(z)] = 0
C['nodes'] += [{'vars':Cluster_vars, 'tau':tau}]
F.factors = F_Rest
return [F, C]
def eliminateVar(self, F, z):
# separate factors into two lists, those that use z (F_Cluster) and the rest
F_Cluster, F_Rest, Cluster_vars = [], [], []
for f in F.factors:
if z in f.variables:
F_Cluster += [f]
Cluster_vars += f.variables
else:
F_Rest += [f]
if F_Cluster!=[]:
# add a node to clique tree with the variables involved
position = self.V
self.V += 1
self.box.insert(position, set(Cluster_vars))
self.adj.insert(position, [])
# when computing tau of new node, check if it uses other nodes' taus and connect
for i in range(position):
if self.tau[i] in F_Cluster:
self.addEdge(i, position)
# multiply the factors in Cluster... (lambda) ...and marginalize by z (tau)
tau = F_Cluster.pop(0)
for f in F_Cluster:
tau = FactorOperations.multiply(tau, f, False)
if tau.variables != [z]:
tau = FactorOperations.marginalize(tau, z)
self.tau.insert(position, tau)
# update the edges of F (connect all vars inside new factor, & disconnect the eliminated variable)
F.connectAll([F.index_var(v) for v in self.box[position]])
F.adj[F.index_var(z)] = []
# add to unused factor list the resulting tau ==> new factor list with var eliminated
F_Rest += [tau]
F.factors = F_Rest
return F
def test_complete_1():
v1 = Rvar.Rvar(1, 3)
v2 = Rvar.Rvar(2, 2)
v3 = Rvar.Rvar(3, 2)
v4 = Rvar.Rvar(4, 2)
v5 = Rvar.Rvar(5, 3)
v6 = Rvar.Rvar(6, 3)
v7 = Rvar.Rvar(7, 2)
v8 = Rvar.Rvar(8, 3)
f1 = Factor.Factor([v1])
f1.fill_values([1.0/3.0, 1.0/3.0, 1.0/3.0])
f2 = Factor.Factor([v8, v2])
f2.fill_values([0.9, 0.1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.1, 0.9])
f3 = Factor.Factor([v3, v4, v7, v2])
f3.fill_values([0.9, 0.1, 0.8, 0.2, 0.7, 0.3, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.3, 0.7, 0.2, 0.8, 0.1, 0.9])
f4 = Factor.Factor([v4])
f4.fill_values([0.5, 0.5])
f5 = Factor.Factor([v5, v6])
f5.fill_values([0.75, 0.2, 0.05, 0.2, 0.6, 0.2, 0.05, 0.2, 0.75])
f6 = Factor.Factor([v6])
f6.fill_values([0.3333, 0.3333, 0.3333])
f7 = Factor.Factor([v7, v5, v6])
f7.fill_values([0.9, 0.1, 0.8, 0.2, 0.7, 0.3, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.6, 0.3, 0.7, 0.2, 0.8, 0.1, 0.9])
f8 = Factor.Factor([v8, v4, v1])
f8.fill_values([0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 0.05, 0.2,0.75, 0.2, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.35, 0.55, 0.8, 0.15, 0.05, 0.2, 0.6, 0.2])
factors = [f2, f3, f4, f5, f6, f7, f8]
a = f1
for f in factors:
a = FactorOperations.multiply(a, f)
rvars = [v2,v3,v4,v5,v6,v7,v8]
for v in rvars:
a = FactorOperations.marginalize(a, v)
assert np.allclose(a.values, [0.37414966, 0.30272109, 0.32312925])
cc.factors[5] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[5], {v[6]:0}) # rene has gen1 F
cc.factors[5] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[5], {v[7]:1}) # rene has gen2 f
cc.factors[1] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[1], {v[5]:0}) # Eva shows pheno
cc.calibrate()
print cc
phenos_nodes = [0,1,2,3,4,5,6]
probs = {}
for i in phenos_nodes:
belief = cc.beta[i]
genes = [v1 for v1 in belief.variables if not v1.id.endswith("_p")]
f = copy.copy(belief)
print genes
for g in genes:
f = FactorOperations.marginalize(f, g)
probs[f.variables[0].id] = f.values[0]
print probs
### CHECK CALIBRATION (IMPRESSIVE!)
# Check that the exact marginal over a var in adjacent nodes (beliefs) is the same
for vari in v:
if not vari.id.endswith('_p'):
print vari.id
for beta in cc.beta:
if vari in beta.variables:
f = copy.copy(beta)
f.values = FactorOperations.normalize(f.values)
for g in (set(beta.variables) - set([vari])):
f = FactorOperations.marginalize(f, g)
print f.values
#msg_10_1 = FactorOperations.marginalize(msg_10_1, msg_10_1.variables[1])
#msg_10_1 = FactorOperations.marginalize(msg_10_1, msg_10_1.variables[1])
#print '---->', msg_10_1.variables
#belief_1 = FactorOperations.multiply(msg_10_1, cc.factors[1], True)
#print belief_1.variables
#sol = FactorOperations.marginalize(belief_1, belief_1.variables[0])
#print 'benito prob of having illnes is now :', sol.values[0]
# COMPUTE ALL EXACT MARGINALS (of showing the sickness for all)
import copy
# for fun lets reduce some evidence
cc.factors[3] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[3], {v[15]:0}) # Ira shows pheno
cc.factors[6] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[6], {v[0]:0}) # rene has gen FF
cc.factors[4] = FactorOperations.observe(cc.factors[4], {v[12]:1}) # James has gen Ff
cc.calibrate()
phenos_nodes = [0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
probs = {}
for i in phenos_nodes:
belief = cc.beta[i]
genes = [v for v in belief.variables if not v.id.endswith("_p")]
f = copy.copy(belief)
f = FactorOperations.marginalize(f, genes[0])
probs[f.variables[0].id] = f.values[0]
print probs
## BUILDING THE NETWORK ##
GN = geneticNetwork(family_tree, frequency_of_alleles_in_general_population, probability_of_trait_based_on_genotype)
# Evidence conditioning
#modify_Factor_by_evidence('Ira', 'pheno', TRAIT_PRESENT)
modify_Factor_by_evidence('James', 'geno', Ff)
modify_Factor_by_evidence('Rene', 'geno', FF)
# lets try first the whole kahuna CPD and compute the prob of developing CF
a =build_joint_cpd()
# marginalizing
target = GN['Benito']['var_pheno']
lista = [x for x in a.variables if x!=target]
for v in lista:
a = FactorOperations.marginalize(a, v)
#print a.variables, a.values.size
print 'probability of Benito showing ailment', 100.*a.values[0], '%'
