Пример #1
0
def store_results(dm, area, sex, year):
    types_to_plot = 'p i r rr'.split()

    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(dm.vars)
    pl.clf()
    for i, t in enumerate(types_to_plot):
        pl.subplot(len(types_to_plot), 1, i + 1)
        graphics.plot_data_bars(dm.model.get_data(t))
        pl.plot(range(101),
                dm.emp_priors[t, 'mu'],
                linestyle='dashed',
                color='grey',
                label='Emp. Prior',
                linewidth=3)
        pl.plot(range(101), dm.true[t], 'b-', label='Truth', linewidth=3)
        pl.plot(range(101),
                dm.posteriors[t].mean(0),
                'r-',
                label='Estimate',
                linewidth=3)

        pl.errorbar(range(101),
                    dm.posteriors[t].mean(0),
                    yerr=1.96 * dm.posteriors[t].std(0),
                    fmt='r-',
                    linewidth=1,
                    capsize=0)

        pl.ylabel(t)
        graphics.expand_axis()

    pl.legend(loc=(0., -.95), fancybox=True, shadow=True)
    pl.subplots_adjust(hspace=0, left=.1, right=.95, bottom=.2, top=.95)
    pl.xlabel('Age (Years)')
    pl.show()

    model = dm
    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame()
    for t in types_to_plot:
        model.mu = model.mu.append(pandas.DataFrame(
            dict(true=dm.true[t],
                 mu_pred=dm.posteriors[t].mean(0),
                 sigma_pred=dm.posteriors[t].std(0))),
                                   ignore_index=True)
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        model.mu['abs_err'].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(
            model.mu['rel_err'].dropna())), model.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #2
0
def validate_age_group(model, replicate):
    # set random seed for reproducibility
    mc.np.random.seed(1234567 + replicate)

    N = 30
    delta_true = 5.0
    pi_true = true_rate_function
    m = simulate_age_group_data(N=N, delta_true=delta_true, pi_true=pi_true)

    if model == "midpoint_covariate":
        fit_midpoint_covariate_model(m)
    if model == "alt_midpoint_covariate":
        fit_alt_midpoint_covariate_model(m)
    elif model == "age_standardizing":
        fit_age_standardizing_model(m)
    elif model == "age_integrating":
        fit_age_integrating_model(m)
    elif model == "midpoint_model":
        fit_midpoint_model(m)
    elif model == "disaggregation_model":
        fit_disaggregation_model(m)
    else:
        raise TypeError, 'Unknown model type: "%s"' % model

    # compare estimate to ground truth
    import data_simulation

    m.mu = pandas.DataFrame(
        dict(
            true=[pi_true(a) for a in range(101)],
            mu_pred=m.vars["mu_age"].stats()["mean"],
            sigma_pred=m.vars["mu_age"].stats()["standard deviation"],
        )
    )
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)
    print "\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f" % (
        m.mu["abs_err"].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(m.mu["rel_err"].dropna())),
        m.mu["covered?"].mean(),
    )
    print

    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(m)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(m, "mu")
    data_simulation.finalize_results(m)

    return m
Пример #3
0
def validate_age_group(model, replicate):
    # set random seed for reproducibility
    mc.np.random.seed(1234567+replicate)

    N = 30
    delta_true = 5.
    pi_true = true_rate_function
    m = simulate_age_group_data(N=N, delta_true=delta_true, pi_true=pi_true)
    
    if model == 'midpoint_covariate':
        fit_midpoint_covariate_model(m)
    elif model == 'age_standardizing':
        fit_age_standardizing_model(m)
    elif model == 'age_integrating':
        fit_age_integrating_model(m)
    elif model == 'midpoint_model':
        fit_midpoint_model(m)
    elif model == 'disaggregation_model':
        fit_disaggregation_model(m)
    else:
        raise TypeError, 'Unknown model type: "%s"' % model


    # compare estimate to ground truth
    import data_simulation
    m.mu = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[pi_true(a) for a in range(101)],
                                 mu_pred=m.vars['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                                 lb_pred=m.vars['mu_age'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,0],
                                 ub_pred=m.vars['mu_age'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,1]))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (m.mu['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                                         pl.median(pl.absolute(m.mu['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                         m.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print


    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(m)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(m, 'mu')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(m)

    return m
Пример #4
0
def validate_age_group(model, replicate):
    # set random seed for reproducibility
    mc.np.random.seed(1234567 + replicate)

    N = 30
    delta_true = 5.
    pi_true = true_rate_function
    m = simulate_age_group_data(N=N, delta_true=delta_true, pi_true=pi_true)

    if model == 'midpoint_covariate':
        fit_midpoint_covariate_model(m)
    if model == 'alt_midpoint_covariate':
        fit_alt_midpoint_covariate_model(m)
    elif model == 'age_standardizing':
        fit_age_standardizing_model(m)
    elif model == 'age_integrating':
        fit_age_integrating_model(m)
    elif model == 'midpoint_model':
        fit_midpoint_model(m)
    elif model == 'disaggregation_model':
        fit_disaggregation_model(m)
    else:
        raise TypeError, 'Unknown model type: "%s"' % model

    # compare estimate to ground truth
    import data_simulation
    m.mu = pandas.DataFrame(
        dict(true=[pi_true(a) for a in range(101)],
             mu_pred=m.vars['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
             sigma_pred=m.vars['mu_age'].stats()['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        m.mu['abs_err'].mean(), pl.median(pl.absolute(
            m.mu['rel_err'].dropna())), m.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print

    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(m.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(m)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(m, 'mu')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(m)

    return m
Пример #5
0
def store_results(dm, area, sex, year):
    types_to_plot = 'p i r rr'.split()

    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(dm.vars)
    pl.clf()
    for i, t in enumerate(types_to_plot):
        pl.subplot(len(types_to_plot), 1, i+1)
        graphics.plot_data_bars(dm.model.get_data(t))
        pl.plot(range(101), dm.emp_priors[t, 'mu'], linestyle='dashed', color='grey', label='Emp. Prior', linewidth=3)
        pl.plot(range(101), dm.true[t], 'b-', label='Truth', linewidth=3)
        pl.plot(range(101), dm.posteriors[t].mean(0), 'r-', label='Estimate', linewidth=3)

        pl.errorbar(range(101), dm.posteriors[t].mean(0), yerr=1.96*dm.posteriors[t].std(0), fmt='r-', linewidth=1, capsize=0)

        pl.ylabel(t)
        graphics.expand_axis()
    
    pl.legend(loc=(0.,-.95), fancybox=True, shadow=True)
    pl.subplots_adjust(hspace=0, left=.1, right=.95, bottom=.2, top=.95)
    pl.xlabel('Age (Years)')
    pl.show()

    model = dm
    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame()
    for t in types_to_plot:
        model.mu = model.mu.append(pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=dm.true[t],
                                                         mu_pred=dm.posteriors[t].mean(0),
                                                         sigma_pred=dm.posteriors[t].std(0))),
                                   ignore_index=True)
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.mu['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                                         pl.median(pl.absolute(model.mu['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                         model.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #6
0
def fit(model):
    emp_priors = model.emp_priors

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars['p'] = data_model.data_model('p', model, 'p', 'all', 'total', 'all', None, emp_priors['p', 'mu'], emp_priors['p', 'sigma'])
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=5000, burn=2000, thin=25, tune_interval=100)
    #model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=101, burn=0, thin=1, tune_interval=100)

    #graphics.plot_one_ppc(model.vars['p'], 'p')
    #graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)
    graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], emp_priors, 'p')
    pl.plot(model.a, model.pi_age_true, 'b--', linewidth=3, alpha=.5, label='Truth')
    pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')
    pl.title('Heterogeneity %s'%model.parameters['p']['heterogeneity'])

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[model.delta_true]))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).mean()
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).std()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                     pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                       model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=model.pi_age_true,
                                     mu_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                                     sigma_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results
Пример #7
0
def validate_age_integrating_model_sim(N=500,
                                       delta_true=.15,
                                       pi_true=quadratic):
    ## generate simulated data
    a = pl.arange(0, 101, 1)
    pi_age_true = pi_true(a)

    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    #model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 10)
    #model.parameters['p']['smoothness'] = dict(amount='Very')

    age_start = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    age_end = pl.array(mc.runiform(age_start, 100, size=N), dtype=int)

    age_weights = pl.ones_like(a)
    sum_pi_wt = pl.cumsum(pi_age_true * age_weights)
    sum_wt = pl.cumsum(age_weights)
    p = (sum_pi_wt[age_end] - sum_pi_wt[age_start]) / (sum_wt[age_end] -
                                                       sum_wt[age_start])

    # correct cases where age_start == age_end
    i = age_start == age_end
    if pl.any(i):
        p[i] = pi_age_true[age_start[i]]

    n = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)

    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_start
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_end
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = n
    model.input_data['true'] = p
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n * p,
                                                      delta_true * n * p) / n

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars['p'] = data_model.data_model('p', model, 'p', 'all', 'total',
                                            'all', None, None, None)
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'],
                                                     iter=10000,
                                                     burn=5000,
                                                     thin=25,
                                                     tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_one_ppc(model.vars['p'], 'p')
    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)
    graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], {}, 'p')
    pl.plot(a, pi_age_true, 'r:', label='Truth')
    pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats(
    )['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[delta_true]))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).mean()
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).std()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
        model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame(
        dict(true=pi_age_true,
             mu_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
             sigma_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()
             ['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)

    model.results = dict(param=[], bias=[], mare=[], mae=[], pc=[])
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    model.results = pandas.DataFrame(model.results,
                                     columns='param bias mae mare pc'.split())

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #8
0
def validate_ai_re(N=500, delta_true=.15, sigma_true=[.1,.1,.1,.1,.1], pi_true=quadratic, smoothness='Moderately', heterogeneity='Slightly'):
    ## generate simulated data
    a = pl.arange(0, 101, 1)
    pi_age_true = pi_true(a)


    import dismod3
    import simplejson as json
    model = data.ModelData.from_gbd_jsons(json.loads(dismod3.disease_json.DiseaseJson().to_json()))
    gbd_hierarchy = model.hierarchy

    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    model.hierarchy = gbd_hierarchy

    model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 10)
    model.parameters['p']['smoothness'] = dict(amount=smoothness)
    model.parameters['p']['heterogeneity'] = heterogeneity

    age_start = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    age_end = pl.array(mc.runiform(age_start, 100, size=N), dtype=int)

    age_weights = pl.ones_like(a)
    sum_pi_wt = pl.cumsum(pi_age_true*age_weights)
    sum_wt = pl.cumsum(age_weights*1.)
    p = (sum_pi_wt[age_end] - sum_pi_wt[age_start]) / (sum_wt[age_end] - sum_wt[age_start])

    # correct cases where age_start == age_end
    i = age_start == age_end
    if pl.any(i):
        p[i] = pi_age_true[age_start[i]]

    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_start
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_end
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)


    from validate_covariates import alpha_true_sim
    area_list = pl.array(['all', 'super-region_3', 'north_africa_middle_east', 'EGY', 'KWT', 'IRN', 'IRQ', 'JOR', 'SYR'])
    alpha = alpha_true_sim(model, area_list, sigma_true)
    print alpha

    model.input_data['true'] = pl.nan

    model.input_data['area'] = area_list[mc.rcategorical(pl.ones(len(area_list)) / float(len(area_list)), N)]
    
    for i, a in model.input_data['area'].iteritems():
        model.input_data['true'][i] = p[i] * pl.exp(pl.sum([alpha[n] for n in nx.shortest_path(model.hierarchy, 'all', a) if n in alpha]))
    p = model.input_data['true']

    n = model.input_data['effective_sample_size']
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n*p, delta_true*n*p) / n

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars['p'] = data_model.data_model('p', model, 'p', 'north_africa_middle_east', 'total', 'all', None, None, None)
    #model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=1005, burn=500, thin=5, tune_interval=100)
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=10000, burn=5000, thin=25, tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_one_ppc(model.vars['p'], 'p')
    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)
    graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], {}, 'p')
    pl.plot(range(101), pi_age_true, 'r:', label='Truth')
    pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[delta_true]))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).mean()
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).std()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    model.alpha = pandas.DataFrame(index=[n for n in nx.traversal.dfs_preorder_nodes(model.hierarchy)])
    model.alpha['true'] = pandas.Series(dict(alpha))
    model.alpha['mu_pred'] = pandas.Series([n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars['p']['alpha']], index=model.vars['p']['U'].columns)
    model.alpha['sigma_pred'] = pandas.Series([n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars['p']['alpha']], index=model.vars['p']['U'].columns)
    model.alpha = model.alpha.dropna()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.alpha)

    model.sigma = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=sigma_true))
    model.sigma['mu_pred'] = [n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars['p']['sigma_alpha']]
    model.sigma['sigma_pred']=[n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars['p']['sigma_alpha']]
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.sigma)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                     pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                       model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=pi_age_true,
                                     mu_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                                     sigma_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'alpha')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'sigma')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #9
0
def validate_age_pattern_model_sim(N=500, delta_true=.15, pi_true=quadratic):
    ## generate simulated data
    a = pl.arange(0, 101, 1)
    pi_age_true = pi_true(a)

    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 10)

    age_list = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    p = pi_age_true[age_list]
    n = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)

    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_list
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_list
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = n
    model.input_data['true'] = p
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n*p, delta_true*n*p) / n

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars['p'] = data_model.data_model('p', model, 'p', 'all', 'total', 'all', None, None, None)
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=10000, burn=5000, thin=25, tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_one_ppc(model.vars['p'], 'p')
    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)
    graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], {}, 'p')
    pl.plot(a, pi_age_true, 'r:', label='Truth')
    pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[delta_true]))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).mean()
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).std()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                     pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                       model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=pi_age_true,
                                     mu_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                                     sigma_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)

    model.results = dict(param=[], bias=[], mare=[], mae=[], pc=[])
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    model.results = pandas.DataFrame(model.results, columns='param bias mae mare pc'.split())

    print model.results

    return model
def validate_ai_re(N=500,
                   delta_true=.15,
                   sigma_true=[.1, .1, .1, .1, .1],
                   pi_true=quadratic,
                   smoothness='Moderately',
                   heterogeneity='Slightly'):
    ## generate simulated data
    a = pl.arange(0, 101, 1)
    pi_age_true = pi_true(a)

    import dismod3
    import simplejson as json
    model = data.ModelData.from_gbd_jsons(
        json.loads(dismod3.disease_json.DiseaseJson().to_json()))
    gbd_hierarchy = model.hierarchy

    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    model.hierarchy = gbd_hierarchy

    model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 10)
    model.parameters['p']['smoothness'] = dict(amount=smoothness)
    model.parameters['p']['heterogeneity'] = heterogeneity

    age_start = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    age_end = pl.array(mc.runiform(age_start, 100, size=N), dtype=int)

    age_weights = pl.ones_like(a)
    sum_pi_wt = pl.cumsum(pi_age_true * age_weights)
    sum_wt = pl.cumsum(age_weights * 1.)
    p = (sum_pi_wt[age_end] - sum_pi_wt[age_start]) / (sum_wt[age_end] -
                                                       sum_wt[age_start])

    # correct cases where age_start == age_end
    i = age_start == age_end
    if pl.any(i):
        p[i] = pi_age_true[age_start[i]]

    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_start
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_end
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)

    from validate_covariates import alpha_true_sim
    area_list = pl.array([
        'all', 'super-region_3', 'north_africa_middle_east', 'EGY', 'KWT',
        'IRN', 'IRQ', 'JOR', 'SYR'
    ])
    alpha = alpha_true_sim(model, area_list, sigma_true)
    print alpha

    model.input_data['true'] = pl.nan

    model.input_data['area'] = area_list[mc.rcategorical(
        pl.ones(len(area_list)) / float(len(area_list)), N)]

    for i, a in model.input_data['area'].iteritems():
        model.input_data['true'][i] = p[i] * pl.exp(
            pl.sum([
                alpha[n] for n in nx.shortest_path(model.hierarchy, 'all', a)
                if n in alpha
            ]))
    p = model.input_data['true']

    n = model.input_data['effective_sample_size']
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n * p,
                                                      delta_true * n * p) / n

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars['p'] = data_model.data_model('p', model, 'p',
                                            'north_africa_middle_east',
                                            'total', 'all', None, None, None)
    #model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'], iter=1005, burn=500, thin=5, tune_interval=100)
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_data_model(model.vars['p'],
                                                     iter=10000,
                                                     burn=5000,
                                                     thin=25,
                                                     tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_one_ppc(model.vars['p'], 'p')
    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)
    graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], {}, 'p')
    pl.plot(range(101), pi_age_true, 'r:', label='Truth')
    pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats(
    )['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[delta_true]))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).mean()
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = pl.exp(model.vars['p']['eta'].trace()).std()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    model.alpha = pandas.DataFrame(
        index=[n for n in nx.traversal.dfs_preorder_nodes(model.hierarchy)])
    model.alpha['true'] = pandas.Series(dict(alpha))
    model.alpha['mu_pred'] = pandas.Series(
        [n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars['p']['alpha']],
        index=model.vars['p']['U'].columns)
    model.alpha['sigma_pred'] = pandas.Series(
        [n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars['p']['alpha']],
        index=model.vars['p']['U'].columns)
    model.alpha = model.alpha.dropna()
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.alpha)

    model.sigma = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=sigma_true))
    model.sigma['mu_pred'] = [
        n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars['p']['sigma_alpha']
    ]
    model.sigma['sigma_pred'] = [
        n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars['p']['sigma_alpha']
    ]
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.sigma)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
        model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame(
        dict(true=pi_age_true,
             mu_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
             sigma_pred=model.vars['p']['mu_age'].stats()
             ['standard deviation']))
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'alpha')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'sigma')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #11
0
def validate_rate_model(rate_type='neg_binom',
                        data_type='epilepsy',
                        replicate=0):
    # set random seed for reproducibility
    mc.np.random.seed(1234567 + replicate)

    # load data
    model = dismod3.data.load('/home/j/Project/dismod/output/dm-32377/')

    data = model.get_data('p')

    #data = data.ix[:20, :]

    # replace data with synthetic data if requested
    if data_type == 'epilepsy':
        # no replacement needed
        pass

    elif data_type == 'schiz':
        import pandas as pd
        data = pd.read_csv('/homes/abie/gbd_dev/gbd/tests/schiz.csv')

    elif data_type == 'binom':
        N = 1.e6
        data['effective_sample_size'] = N
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        data['value'] = mc.rbinomial(N, mu, size=len(data.index)) / N

    elif data_type == 'poisson':
        N = 1.e6
        data['effective_sample_size'] = N
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        data['value'] = mc.rpoisson(N * mu, size=len(data.index)) / N

    elif data_type == 'normal':
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        sigma = .125 * mu
        data['standard_error'] = sigma
        data['value'] = mc.rnormal(mu, sigma**-2, size=len(data.index))

    elif data_type == 'log_normal':
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        sigma = .25
        data['standard_error'] = sigma * mu
        data['value'] = pl.exp(
            mc.rnormal(pl.log(mu), sigma**-2, size=len(data.index)))

    else:
        raise TypeError, 'Unknown data type "%s"' % data_type

    # sample prevalence data
    i_test = mc.rbernoulli(.25, size=len(data.index))
    i_nan = pl.isnan(data['effective_sample_size'])

    data['lower_ci'] = pl.nan
    data['upper_ci'] = pl.nan
    data.ix[i_nan, 'effective_sample_size'] = 0.
    data['standard_error'] = pl.sqrt(
        data['value'] * (1 - data['value'])) / data['effective_sample_size']
    data.ix[pl.isnan(data['standard_error']), 'standard_error'] = pl.inf

    data['standard_error'][i_test] = pl.inf
    data['effective_sample_size'][i_test] = 0.

    data['value'] = pl.maximum(data['value'], 1.e-12)

    model.input_data = data

    # create model
    # TODO: set parameters in model.parameters['p'] dict
    # then have simple method to create age specific rate model
    #model.parameters['p'] = ...
    #model.vars += dismod3.ism.age_specific_rate(model, 'p')

    model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = [0, 100]
    model.parameters['p']['heterogeneity'] = 'Very'
    model.vars['p'] = dismod3.data_model.data_model(
        'p',
        model,
        'p',
        'all',
        'total',
        'all',
        None,
        None,
        None,
        rate_type=rate_type,
        interpolation_method='zero',
        include_covariates=False)

    # add upper bound on sigma in log normal model to help convergence
    #if rate_type == 'log_normal':
    #    model.vars['p']['sigma'].parents['upper'] = 1.5

    # add upper bound on sigma, zeta in offset log normal
    #if rate_type == 'offset_log_normal':
    #    model.vars['p']['sigma'].parents['upper'] = .1
    #    model.vars['p']['p_zeta'].value = 5.e-9
    #    model.vars['p']['p_zeta'].parents['upper'] = 1.e-8

    # fit model
    dismod3.fit.fit_asr(model, 'p', iter=20000, thin=10, burn=10000)
    #dismod3.fit.fit_asr(model, 'p', iter=100, thin=1, burn=0)

    # compare estimate to hold-out
    data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    data['lb_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,
                                                                            0]
    data['ub_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,
                                                                            1]

    import data_simulation
    model.test = data[i_test]
    data = model.test
    data['true'] = data['value']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(data)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'test')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    return model
Пример #12
0
def validate_consistent_re(N=500, delta_true=.15, sigma_true=[.1,.1,.1,.1,.1], 
                           true=dict(i=quadratic, f=constant, r=constant)):
    types = pl.array(['i', 'r', 'f', 'p'])

    ## generate simulated data
    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = 1.
    model.input_data['value'] = 0.
    # coarse knot spacing for fast testing
    for t in types:
        model.parameters[t]['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 20)

    sim = consistent_model.consistent_model(model, 'all', 'total', 'all', {})
    for t in 'irf':
        for i, k_i in enumerate(sim[t]['knots']):
            sim[t]['gamma'][i].value = pl.log(true[t](k_i))

    age_start = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    age_end = pl.array(mc.runiform(age_start, 100, size=N), dtype=int)

    data_type = types[mc.rcategorical(pl.ones(len(types), dtype=float) / float(len(types)), size=N)]


    a = pl.arange(101)
    age_weights = pl.ones_like(a)
    sum_wt = pl.cumsum(age_weights)

    p = pl.zeros(N)
    for t in types:
        mu_t = sim[t]['mu_age'].value
        sum_mu_wt = pl.cumsum(mu_t*age_weights)
    
        p_t = (sum_mu_wt[age_end] - sum_mu_wt[age_start]) / (sum_wt[age_end] - sum_wt[age_start])

        # correct cases where age_start == age_end
        i = age_start == age_end
        if pl.any(i):
            p_t[i] = mu_t[age_start[i]]

        # copy part into p
        p[data_type==t] = p_t[data_type==t]


    # add covariate shifts
    import dismod3
    import simplejson as json
    gbd_model = data.ModelData.from_gbd_jsons(json.loads(dismod3.disease_json.DiseaseJson().to_json()))
    model.hierarchy = gbd_model.hierarchy

    from validate_covariates import alpha_true_sim
    area_list = pl.array(['all', 'super-region_3', 'north_africa_middle_east', 'EGY', 'KWT', 'IRN', 'IRQ', 'JOR', 'SYR'])
    alpha = {}
    for t in types:
        alpha[t] = alpha_true_sim(model, area_list, sigma_true)
    print json.dumps(alpha, indent=2)

    model.input_data['area'] = area_list[mc.rcategorical(pl.ones(len(area_list)) / float(len(area_list)), N)]
    
    for i, a in model.input_data['area'].iteritems():
        t = data_type[i]
        p[i] = p[i] * pl.exp(pl.sum([alpha[t][n] for n in nx.shortest_path(model.hierarchy, 'all', a) if n in alpha]))

    n = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)

    model.input_data['data_type'] = data_type
    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_start
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_end
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = n
    model.input_data['true'] = p
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n*p, delta_true) / n

    # coarse knot spacing for fast testing
    for t in types:
        model.parameters[t]['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 20)

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars = consistent_model.consistent_model(model, 'all', 'total', 'all', {})
    #model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_consistent_model(model.vars, iter=101, burn=0, thin=1, tune_interval=100)
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_consistent_model(model.vars, iter=10000, burn=5000, thin=25, tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)

    graphics.plot_fit(model, model.vars, {}, {})
    for i, t in enumerate('i r f p rr pf'.split()):
        pl.subplot(2, 3, i+1)
        pl.plot(range(101), sim[t]['mu_age'].value, 'w-', label='Truth', linewidth=2)
        pl.plot(range(101), sim[t]['mu_age'].value, 'r-', label='Truth', linewidth=1)

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = 0.
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = 0.
    for t in types:
        model.input_data['mu_pred'][data_type==t] = model.vars[t]['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
        model.input_data['sigma_pred'][data_type==t] = model.vars[t]['p_pred'].stats()['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=[delta_true for t in types if t != 'rr']))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = [pl.exp(model.vars[t]['eta'].trace()).mean() for t in types if t != 'rr']
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = [pl.exp(model.vars[t]['eta'].trace()).std() for t in types if t != 'rr']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    model.alpha = pandas.DataFrame()
    model.sigma = pandas.DataFrame()
    for t in types:
        alpha_t = pandas.DataFrame(index=[n for n in nx.traversal.dfs_preorder_nodes(model.hierarchy)])
        alpha_t['true'] = pandas.Series(dict(alpha[t]))
        alpha_t['mu_pred'] = pandas.Series([n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars[t]['alpha']], index=model.vars[t]['U'].columns)
        alpha_t['sigma_pred'] = pandas.Series([n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars[t]['alpha']], index=model.vars[t]['U'].columns)
        alpha_t['type'] = t
        model.alpha = model.alpha.append(alpha_t.dropna(), ignore_index=True)

        sigma_t = pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=sigma_true))
        sigma_t['mu_pred'] = [n.stats()['mean'] for n in model.vars[t]['sigma_alpha']]
        sigma_t['sigma_pred'] = [n.stats()['standard deviation'] for n in model.vars[t]['sigma_alpha']]
        model.sigma = model.sigma.append(sigma_t.dropna(), ignore_index=True)

    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.alpha)
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.sigma)


    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                     pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                       model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame()
    for t in types:
        model.mu = model.mu.append(pandas.DataFrame(dict(true=sim[t]['mu_age'].value,
                                                         mu_pred=model.vars[t]['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                                                         sigma_pred=model.vars[t]['mu_age'].stats()['standard deviation'])),
                                   ignore_index=True)
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (model.mu['abs_err'].mean(),
                                                                         pl.median(pl.absolute(model.mu['rel_err'].dropna())),
                                                                         model.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print


    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'alpha')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'sigma')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model
Пример #13
0
def validate_rate_model(rate_type='neg_binom', data_type='epilepsy', replicate=0):
    # set random seed for reproducibility
    mc.np.random.seed(1234567 + replicate)
    
    # load data
    model = dismod3.data.load('/home/j/Project/dismod/output/dm-32377/')

    data = model.get_data('p')

    #data = data.ix[:20, :]
    
    # replace data with synthetic data if requested
    if data_type == 'epilepsy':
        # no replacement needed
        pass

    elif data_type == 'schiz':
        import pandas as pd
        data = pd.read_csv('/homes/abie/gbd_dev/gbd/tests/schiz.csv')
    
    elif data_type == 'binom':
        N = 1.e6
        data['effective_sample_size'] = N
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        data['value'] = mc.rbinomial(N, mu, size=len(data.index)) / N

    elif data_type == 'poisson':
        N = 1.e6
        data['effective_sample_size'] = N
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        data['value'] = mc.rpoisson(N*mu, size=len(data.index)) / N

    elif data_type == 'normal':
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        sigma = .125*mu
        data['standard_error'] = sigma
        data['value'] = mc.rnormal(mu, sigma**-2, size=len(data.index))

    elif data_type == 'log_normal':
        mu = data['value'].mean()
        sigma = .25
        data['standard_error'] = sigma*mu
        data['value'] = pl.exp(mc.rnormal(pl.log(mu), sigma**-2, size=len(data.index)))

    else:
        raise TypeError, 'Unknown data type "%s"' % data_type

    # sample prevalence data
    i_test = mc.rbernoulli(.25, size=len(data.index))
    i_nan = pl.isnan(data['effective_sample_size'])
    
    data['lower_ci'] = pl.nan
    data['upper_ci'] = pl.nan
    data.ix[i_nan, 'effective_sample_size'] = 0.
    data['standard_error'] = pl.sqrt(data['value']*(1-data['value'])) / data['effective_sample_size']
    data.ix[pl.isnan(data['standard_error']), 'standard_error'] = pl.inf

    data['standard_error'][i_test] = pl.inf
    data['effective_sample_size'][i_test] = 0.

    data['value'] = pl.maximum(data['value'], 1.e-12)

    model.input_data = data


    # create model
    # TODO: set parameters in model.parameters['p'] dict
    # then have simple method to create age specific rate model
    #model.parameters['p'] = ...
    #model.vars += dismod3.ism.age_specific_rate(model, 'p')

    model.parameters['p']['parameter_age_mesh'] = [0,100]
    model.parameters['p']['heterogeneity'] = 'Very'
    model.vars['p'] = dismod3.data_model.data_model(
        'p', model, 'p',
        'all', 'total', 'all',
        None, None, None,
        rate_type=rate_type,
        interpolation_method='zero',
        include_covariates=False)
    
    # add upper bound on sigma in log normal model to help convergence
    #if rate_type == 'log_normal':
    #    model.vars['p']['sigma'].parents['upper'] = 1.5

    # add upper bound on sigma, zeta in offset log normal
    #if rate_type == 'offset_log_normal':
    #    model.vars['p']['sigma'].parents['upper'] = .1
    #    model.vars['p']['p_zeta'].value = 5.e-9
    #    model.vars['p']['p_zeta'].parents['upper'] = 1.e-8

    # fit model
    dismod3.fit.fit_asr(model, 'p', iter=20000, thin=10, burn=10000)
    #dismod3.fit.fit_asr(model, 'p', iter=100, thin=1, burn=0)

    # compare estimate to hold-out
    data['mu_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
    data['lb_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,0]
    data['ub_pred'] = model.vars['p']['p_pred'].stats()['95% HPD interval'][:,1]

    import data_simulation
    model.test = data[i_test]
    data = model.test
    data['true'] = data['value']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(data)

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'test')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)


    return model
Пример #14
0
def validate_consistent_model_sim(N=500,
                                  delta_true=.5,
                                  true=dict(i=quadratic,
                                            f=constant,
                                            r=constant)):
    types = pl.array(['i', 'r', 'f', 'p'])

    ## generate simulated data
    model = data_simulation.simple_model(N)
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = 1.
    model.input_data['value'] = 0.

    for t in types:
        model.parameters[t]['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 20)

    sim = consistent_model.consistent_model(model, 'all', 'total', 'all', {})
    for t in 'irf':
        for i, k_i in enumerate(sim[t]['knots']):
            sim[t]['gamma'][i].value = pl.log(true[t](k_i))

    age_start = pl.array(mc.runiform(0, 100, size=N), dtype=int)
    age_end = pl.array(mc.runiform(age_start, 100, size=N), dtype=int)

    data_type = types[mc.rcategorical(pl.ones(len(types), dtype=float) /
                                      float(len(types)),
                                      size=N)]

    a = pl.arange(101)
    age_weights = pl.ones_like(a)
    sum_wt = pl.cumsum(age_weights)

    p = pl.zeros(N)
    for t in types:
        mu_t = sim[t]['mu_age'].value
        sum_mu_wt = pl.cumsum(mu_t * age_weights)

        p_t = (sum_mu_wt[age_end] - sum_mu_wt[age_start]) / (sum_wt[age_end] -
                                                             sum_wt[age_start])

        # correct cases where age_start == age_end
        i = age_start == age_end
        if pl.any(i):
            p_t[i] = mu_t[age_start[i]]

        # copy part into p
        p[data_type == t] = p_t[data_type == t]
    n = mc.runiform(100, 10000, size=N)

    model.input_data['data_type'] = data_type
    model.input_data['age_start'] = age_start
    model.input_data['age_end'] = age_end
    model.input_data['effective_sample_size'] = n
    model.input_data['true'] = p
    model.input_data['value'] = mc.rnegative_binomial(n * p,
                                                      delta_true * n * p) / n

    # coarse knot spacing for fast testing
    for t in types:
        model.parameters[t]['parameter_age_mesh'] = range(0, 101, 20)

    ## Then fit the model and compare the estimates to the truth
    model.vars = {}
    model.vars = consistent_model.consistent_model(model, 'all', 'total',
                                                   'all', {})
    model.map, model.mcmc = fit_model.fit_consistent_model(model.vars,
                                                           iter=10000,
                                                           burn=5000,
                                                           thin=25,
                                                           tune_interval=100)

    graphics.plot_convergence_diag(model.vars)

    graphics.plot_fit(model, model.vars, {}, {})
    for i, t in enumerate('i r f p rr pf'.split()):
        pl.subplot(2, 3, i + 1)
        pl.plot(a, sim[t]['mu_age'].value, 'w-', label='Truth', linewidth=2)
        pl.plot(a, sim[t]['mu_age'].value, 'r-', label='Truth', linewidth=1)

    #graphics.plot_one_type(model, model.vars['p'], {}, 'p')
    #pl.legend(fancybox=True, shadow=True, loc='upper left')

    pl.show()

    model.input_data['mu_pred'] = 0.
    model.input_data['sigma_pred'] = 0.
    for t in types:
        model.input_data['mu_pred'][
            data_type == t] = model.vars[t]['p_pred'].stats()['mean']
        model.input_data['sigma_pred'][data_type == t] = model.vars['p'][
            'p_pred'].stats()['standard deviation']
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.input_data)

    model.delta = pandas.DataFrame(
        dict(true=[delta_true for t in types if t != 'rr']))
    model.delta['mu_pred'] = [
        pl.exp(model.vars[t]['eta'].trace()).mean() for t in types if t != 'rr'
    ]
    model.delta['sigma_pred'] = [
        pl.exp(model.vars[t]['eta'].trace()).std() for t in types if t != 'rr'
    ]
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.delta)

    print 'delta'
    print model.delta

    print '\ndata prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        model.input_data['abs_err'].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(model.input_data['rel_err'].dropna())),
        model.input_data['covered?'].mean())

    model.mu = pandas.DataFrame()
    for t in types:
        model.mu = model.mu.append(pandas.DataFrame(
            dict(true=sim[t]['mu_age'].value,
                 mu_pred=model.vars[t]['mu_age'].stats()['mean'],
                 sigma_pred=model.vars[t]['mu_age'].stats()
                 ['standard deviation'])),
                                   ignore_index=True)
    data_simulation.add_quality_metrics(model.mu)
    print '\nparam prediction bias: %.5f, MARE: %.3f, coverage: %.2f' % (
        model.mu['abs_err'].mean(),
        pl.median(pl.absolute(
            model.mu['rel_err'].dropna())), model.mu['covered?'].mean())
    print

    data_simulation.initialize_results(model)
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'delta')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'mu')
    data_simulation.add_to_results(model, 'input_data')
    data_simulation.finalize_results(model)

    print model.results

    return model