def test_symbol_ab(self,symbol, nf = 1):
## This function tests that the residuals behaves properly.
## That is, that the alpha (how we behave compared to the market)
## has a nice gaussian distribution.
## Slide 7
index = self.Sindex # The index
sym_ret = self.pf.symbols[symbol].TDs[self.period].get_timeSeriesReturn()
ind_ret = self.get_indexReturns()
# Get coefficients for the symbol
coeffs = self.get_symbol_ab(symbol)
##### GET THE RESIDUAL
X = np.concatenate((np.ones((sym_ret.shape[0],1)),sym_ret),axis = 1)
pred = X.dot(np.array(coeffs)) # Pred = X * Phi
pred = pred.reshape(pred.shape[0],1)
residual = pred - ind_ret
print "Mean of residual %f" % np.mean(residual)
### Now we test the residual
print "Statistical test of residual"
ttest = stats.ttest_1samp(a = residual, # Sample data
popmean = 0) # Pop mean
print ttest
######## DOUBLE REGRESSION OF PAGE 7. Early empirical test
Xres = np.concatenate((ind_ret,np.power(residual,2)),axis = 1)
coeff = bMl.get_linearRef(Xres, sym_ret)
print "Early empirical test of CAPM is wrong"
print coeff
hist, bin_edges = np.histogram(residual, density=True)
gl.bar(bin_edges[:-1], hist,
labels = ["Distribution","Return", "Probability"],
legend = [symbol],
alpha = 0.5,
nf = nf)
## Lets get some statistics using stats
m, v, s, k = stats.t.stats(10, moments='mvsk')
n, (smin, smax), sm, sv, ss, sk = stats.describe(residual)
print "****** MORE STATISTIC ************"
print "Mean " + str(sm)
tt = (sm-m)/np.sqrt(sv/float(n)) # t-statistic for mean
pval = stats.t.sf(np.abs(tt), n-1)*2 # two-sided pvalue = Prob(abs(t)>tt)
print 't-statistic = %6.3f pvalue = %6.4f' % (tt, pval)
return coeff
for i in range(len(question_types)):
question_types_ammount.append(
np.where(question_types_list == i)[0].size)
## Normalize and order
question_types_ammount, question_types_ordered = zip(
*sorted(zip(question_types_ammount, question_types), reverse=True))
question_types_ammount = np.array(question_types_ammount)
question_types_ammount = question_types_ammount / np.sum(
question_types_ammount)
## Do the actual plotting
gl.init_figure()
ax1 = gl.bar(
question_types_ordered,
question_types_ammount,
align="center",
labels=["Question Types Proportions SQUAD 1.1", "", "Proportion"])
gl.set_fontSizes(ax=[ax1],
title=20,
xlabel=20,
ylabel=20,
legend=10,
xticks=15,
yticks=15)
gl.subplots_adjust(left=.09,
bottom=.10,
right=.90,
top=.95,
wspace=.30,
hspace=0.10)
def IFE_h(self, Rf=0, mktcap=[], year_start=1996, year_finish=2016, window=10):
## Black litterman question !!
# The optimal portolio, lets say is the one given by Markovitz
# mktcap is a dicktionary with the market capitalizaion of the equities
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_start, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_finish, 1, 1))
## Get the actual stuff !!
ExpRet = self.get_MeanReturns()
Sigma = self.get_covMatrix()
woptimal = self.TangentPortfolio()
self.set_allocation(woptimal)
R, S = self.get_metrics()
delta = (R - self.Rf) / np.power(S, 2) # Optimal risk adversion
## Get the weights by the market capitalization
if (len(mktcap) > 0):
weq = []
for sym in self.symbol_names:
weq.append(mktcap[sym])
weq = ul.fnp(weq) / np.sum(weq)
weq = weq.T.tolist()[0]
# print weq
else:
weq = woptimal # Initial prior
############### PUT FECKING BL prior instead ##########
# Calculate initial portfolio from the market capitalization
# Risk aversion of the market. We say it is the one of the portfolio
# The optimal portfolio is the market.
# weq = np.ones((1,self.Nsym))/self.Nsym
# weq = weq.tolist()[0]
# Coefficient of uncertainty in the prior estimate of the mean
tau = 10
### Prior of our Views !!!
P1 = np.zeros((2, self.Nsym))
P1[0, 0] = -1
P1[0, 1] = 1
P1[1, 1] = -1
P1[1, 2] = 1
P1 = ul.fnp(P1)
# If we invert P1 and Q1 at the same time we get the same
Q1 = [0.0002, 0.0001]
Q1 = ul.fnp(Q1)
Omega1 = np.dot(np.dot(P1, Sigma), P1.T) * np.eye(Q1.shape[0])
postPi, weqpost = self.BlackLitterman(
weq,
Sigma,
delta, # Prior portfolio variables
tau, # Uncertainty coefficient of the porfolio priors
P1,
Q1,
Omega1) # Prior views variables
# Reference returns of the portfolio of the market
# They can just be calculated using the portfolio
# A priory the expected return Posteriori does not have to be bigger
# Just more accuarate to reality if our views are right :)
refPi = delta * np.dot(Sigma, weq)
Ereturn = np.dot(refPi, weq)
EreturnPost = np.dot(postPi, weqpost)
## Plot the returns !!!
# We will plot the real w returns, the Pi Returns, and the Post- Returns
gl.set_subplots(2, 3)
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), ExpRet, labels=["Optimal initial returns"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), refPi, labels=["Prior Returns"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), postPi, labels=["Posterior Returns"])
# gl.savefig(folder_images +'returnsBL.png',
# dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
## Plot the weights !!!
# We will plot the real w returns, the Pi Returns, and the Post- Returns
# gl.set_subplots(1,3)
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), woptimal, labels=["Optimal intial weights"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), weq, labels=["Prior Weights"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(), weqpost, labels=["Posterior Weights"])
# gl.savefig(folder_images +'weightsBL.png',
# dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'weightsreturnsBL.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 2 * 6])
pass
def IFE_f2(self,
ObjectiveRlist=[0.003],
Rf=0.0,
year_start=1996,
year_finish=2016,
window=10):
### The official one can be done executing the exercise c with another Rf
## Just another graph to show that now we should not use all the data.
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then calculate for the next year, the real return
# for that portfolio.
# Do this for several years as well.
self.set_Rf(Rf)
All_returns = []
All_vars = []
windowslist = range(1, 13)
ObjectiveR = 0.03
for window in windowslist:
PortfolioReturns = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start,
year_finish - window + 1 - 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf=Rf) # Obtain allocation
self.set_allocation(w)
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(investRf="no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf) / (expRet - Rf)
wdesired = w * X
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1, 1, 1))
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(
) # Get the expected return for that year
PortfolioRet = self.yearly_Return(expRet) # Get yearly returns
PortfolioReturns.append(PortfolioRet)
dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(dates[0])
All_returns.append(np.mean(PortfolioReturns))
All_vars.append(np.std(PortfolioReturns) / np.sqrt(np.sqrt(12 * 12)))
# All_returns = np.array(All_returns).reshape(len(ObjectiveRlist),10)
# print All_returns
All_means = All_returns
print All_returns
# All_means = np.mean(All_returns, axis = 1)
print ul.fnp(All_returns).shape
print All_means
# print All_means - ObjectiveRlist
# All_means = np.divide((All_means - ObjectiveRlist),ObjectiveRlist)
# print All_means
## Graph with the desired, the obtained returns and the returns of the index
gl.bar(windowslist,
All_means,
labels=["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend=["Index Return"],
alpha=0.8,
nf=1)
gl.plot(windowslist,
All_vars,
labels=["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend=["Index Return"],
alpha=0.8,
nf=0)
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'best_Objective.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 2 * 6])
def IFE_f(self,
ObjectiveR=0.003,
Rf=0.0,
year_start=1996,
year_finish=2016,
window=10):
### The official one can be done executing the exercise c with another Rf
## Just another graph to show that now we should not use all the data.
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then calculate for the next year, the real return
# for that portfolio.
# Do this for several years as well.
self.set_Rf(Rf)
nf_flag = 1
All_stds = []
PortfolioReturns = []
IndexReturns = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start, year_finish - window + 1 - 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf=Rf) # Obtain allocation
self.set_allocation(w)
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(investRf="no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf) / (expRet - Rf)
wdesired = w * X
## Check that the output of this portfolio is the desired one.
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(
) # Get the expected return for that year
# print ret
## Now that we have the desired w*X, we will calculate the resturn of
## the portfolio in the following year.
# To do so, we set the dates, only to the next year, set the portfolio allocation
# And calculate the yearly expected return !!
# Set the dates to only the next year !!
# Also, one month before in order to get the returns of the first month.
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1, 1, 1))
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(
) # Get the expected return for that year
PortfolioRet = self.yearly_Return(expRet) # Get yearly returns
PortfolioReturns.append(PortfolioRet)
All_stds.append(self.yearly_covMatrix(stdRet))
indexRet = self.get_indexMeanReturn()
indexRet = self.yearly_Return(indexRet)
IndexReturns.append(indexRet)
# dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(year_test + window + 1)
## Graph with the evolutio of the portfolio price after the assignment
gl.plot(range(1, 13),
np.cumsum(self.get_PortfolioReturn()),
nf=nf_flag,
labels=[
"Evolution of returns by month", "Months passed",
"Cumulative Return"
],
legend=[str(year_test + window + 1)])
nf_flag = 0
# print ret
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'returnsEvolMonth.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 2 * 6])
## Graph with the desired, the obtained returns and the returns of the index
gl.bar(all_dates[:],
IndexReturns,
labels=["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend=["Index Return"],
alpha=0.8,
nf=1)
gl.bar(all_dates[:],
PortfolioReturns,
labels=["Returns of year", "Year", "Value"],
legend=["Porfolio Return"],
alpha=0.8,
nf=0)
gl.scatter(all_dates[:],
self.yearly_Return(ObjectiveR) * np.ones(
(len(all_dates[:]), 1)),
legend=["Objective Return"],
nf=0)
gl.scatter(all_dates[:],
All_stds,
legend=["Std of the portfolio return"],
nf=0)
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'returnsEvolYears.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 2 * 6])
#### Crazy idea !! Lets plot where the f*****g efficient frontier went
nf_flag = 1
PortfolioReturns = []
IndexReturns = []
all_dates = []
gl.set_subplots(2, 3)
for year_test in range(year_start, year_start + 6): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1))
optimal, portfolios = self.efficient_frontier(kind="Tangent")
self.plot_allocations(
portfolios,
labels=["Evolution of the efficient frontier"],
legend=["Frontier " + str(year_test + window) + " before"],
color="k",
nf=1)
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1, 1, 1))
self.set_allocation(self.TangentPortfolio(Rf=Rf))
self.plot_allocations(
portfolios,
legend=["Frontier " + str(year_test + window) + " after"],
color="r",
nf=0)
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'effEvol.png',
dpi=80,
sizeInches=[4 * 8, 3 * 6])
def IFE_e(self,
ObjectiveR=0.003,
Rf=0.0,
year_start=1996,
year_finish=2016,
window=10):
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then, using also the last year ( test), recalculate the portfolio needed
# for that return, and the difference between is the turnover
self.set_Rf(Rf)
nf_flag = 1
desired_Portfolios = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start, year_finish - window + 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test, 1, 1),
dt.datetime(year_test + window, 1, 1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf=Rf) # Obtain allocation
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
self.set_allocation(w)
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics(investRf="no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
# Once we have the equation of the line, we obtain how much money
# we need to use to reach the desired Expecred Return.
# Rt = (1 - X)Rf + XRp with X = sum(w)
# For a desired Rt we solve the X
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf) / (expRet - Rf)
# print X
# So the desired porfolio is:
wdesired = w * X
desired_Portfolios.append(wdesired)
gl.plot([0, 1.3 * abs(X * stdRet)],
[bias, bias + 1.3 * abs(slope * stdRet * X)],
labels=["Desired Portfolios", "Risk (std)", "Return (%)"],
legend=["%s, X: %0.3f" % ((year_test + window), X[0])],
nf=nf_flag,
loc=2)
nf_flag = 0
gl.scatter([abs(X * stdRet)], [ObjectiveR], nf=0)
dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(dates[-1])
# print wdesired
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'desiredPortfolios.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 2 * 6])
# Now we calculate the turnovers
Turnovers = []
prev_abs_alloc = [] # Previous, absolute allocation
percentaje_changed = []
Nport = len(desired_Portfolios)
for i in range(Nport - 1):
to = bMl.get_TurnOver(desired_Portfolios[i], desired_Portfolios[i + 1])
Turnovers.append(to)
prev_abs_alloc.append(np.sum(np.abs(desired_Portfolios[i])))
percentaje_changed.append(Turnovers[-1] / prev_abs_alloc[-1])
print Turnovers
gl.set_subplots(1, 3)
gl.bar(all_dates[1:],
Turnovers,
color="g",
labels=["Portfolio turnovers", "Year", "Value"])
gl.add_text([all_dates[1:][3], max(Turnovers) * 0.80],
"Mean: %0.2f" % np.mean(Turnovers), 30)
gl.bar(all_dates[0:-1],
prev_abs_alloc,
color="r",
labels=["Absolute allocations", "Year", "Value"])
gl.bar(all_dates[1:],
percentaje_changed,
color="b",
labels=["Percentage turnover", "Year", "Value"])
gl.add_text(
[all_dates[1:][3], max(percentaje_changed) * 0.80],
"Mean: %0.2f" % np.mean(percentaje_changed), 30)
gl.savefig(folder_images + 'turnovers.png',
dpi=150,
sizeInches=[2 * 8, 1 * 6])
legend = ["price"],
ws = ws,
color = "red",
nf = 0)
timeSeries = timeData.get_timeSeries(["Volume"]);
# gl.step(timeData.dates,timeSeries,
# legend = ["price"],
# ws = ws,
# color = "red",
# nf = 0, na = 1, fill = 1)
gl.bar(dates,timeSeries,
legend = ["price"],
ws = ws,
color = "red",
nf = 0, na = 1)
gl.add_slider(args = {"wsize":ws}, plots_affected = [])
gl.add_hidebox()
list_values = []
gl.add_selector(list_values)
gl.add_onKeyPress()
# type(timeData.TD.index)
# cad = pd.DataFrame(index = time_index)
# caca = pd.to_datetime(time_index.T.tolist())
# print caca
#
def IFE_h (self, Rf = 0, mktcap = [], year_start = 1996, year_finish = 2016, window = 10):
## Black litterman question !!
# The optimal portolio, lets say is the one given by Markovitz
# mktcap is a dicktionary with the market capitalizaion of the equities
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_start,1,1),dt.datetime(year_finish,1,1))
## Get the actual stuff !!
ExpRet = self.get_MeanReturns()
Sigma = self.get_covMatrix()
woptimal = self.TangentPortfolio()
self.set_allocation(woptimal)
R,S = self.get_metrics()
delta = (R - self.Rf)/np.power(S,2) # Optimal risk adversion
## Get the weights by the market capitalization
if (len(mktcap) > 0):
weq = []
for sym in self.symbol_names:
weq.append(mktcap[sym])
weq = ul.fnp(weq) /np.sum(weq)
weq = weq.T.tolist()[0]
# print weq
else:
weq = woptimal # Initial prior
############### PUT FECKING BL prior instead ##########
# Calculate initial portfolio from the market capitalization
# Risk aversion of the market. We say it is the one of the portfolio
# The optimal portfolio is the market.
# weq = np.ones((1,self.Nsym))/self.Nsym
# weq = weq.tolist()[0]
# Coefficient of uncertainty in the prior estimate of the mean
tau = 10
### Prior of our Views !!!
P1 = np.zeros((2,self.Nsym))
P1[0,0] = -1; P1[0,1] = 1
P1[1,1] = -1; P1[1,2] = 1
P1 = ul.fnp(P1)
# If we invert P1 and Q1 at the same time we get the same
Q1 = [0.0002, 0.0001]
Q1 = ul.fnp(Q1)
Omega1 = np.dot(np.dot(P1,Sigma),P1.T) * np.eye(Q1.shape[0])
postPi,weqpost = self.BlackLitterman(weq, Sigma, delta, # Prior portfolio variables
tau, # Uncertainty coefficient of the porfolio priors
P1, Q1, Omega1) # Prior views variables
# Reference returns of the portfolio of the market
# They can just be calculated using the portfolio
# A priory the expected return Posteriori does not have to be bigger
# Just more accuarate to reality if our views are right :)
refPi = delta * np.dot(Sigma, weq)
Ereturn = np.dot(refPi,weq)
EreturnPost = np.dot(postPi,weqpost)
## Plot the returns !!!
# We will plot the real w returns, the Pi Returns, and the Post- Returns
gl.set_subplots(2,3)
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),ExpRet,
labels = ["Optimal initial returns"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),refPi,
labels = ["Prior Returns"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),postPi,
labels = ["Posterior Returns"])
# gl.savefig(folder_images +'returnsBL.png',
# dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
## Plot the weights !!!
# We will plot the real w returns, the Pi Returns, and the Post- Returns
# gl.set_subplots(1,3)
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),woptimal,
labels = ["Optimal intial weights"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),weq,
labels = ["Prior Weights"])
gl.bar(self.pf.symbols.keys(),weqpost,
labels = ["Posterior Weights"])
# gl.savefig(folder_images +'weightsBL.png',
# dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
gl.savefig(folder_images +'weightsreturnsBL.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
pass
def IFE_f2 (self, ObjectiveRlist = [0.003], Rf = 0.0, year_start = 1996, year_finish = 2016, window = 10):
### The official one can be done executing the exercise c with another Rf
## Just another graph to show that now we should not use all the data.
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then calculate for the next year, the real return
# for that portfolio.
# Do this for several years as well.
self.set_Rf(Rf)
All_returns = []
All_vars = []
windowslist = range(1,13)
ObjectiveR = 0.03
for window in windowslist:
PortfolioReturns = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start,year_finish - window + 1 - 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf = Rf) # Obtain allocation
self.set_allocation(w)
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics (investRf = "no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf)/(expRet - Rf)
wdesired = w*X
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1,1,1))
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics() # Get the expected return for that year
PortfolioRet = self.yearly_Return(expRet) # Get yearly returns
PortfolioReturns.append(PortfolioRet)
dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(dates[0])
All_returns.append(np.mean(PortfolioReturns))
All_vars.append(np.std(PortfolioReturns)/np.sqrt(np.sqrt(12*12)))
# All_returns = np.array(All_returns).reshape(len(ObjectiveRlist),10)
# print All_returns
All_means = All_returns
print All_returns
# All_means = np.mean(All_returns, axis = 1)
print ul.fnp(All_returns).shape
print All_means
# print All_means - ObjectiveRlist
# All_means = np.divide((All_means - ObjectiveRlist),ObjectiveRlist)
# print All_means
## Graph with the desired, the obtained returns and the returns of the index
gl.bar(windowslist, All_means,
labels = ["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend = ["Index Return"],
alpha = 0.8,
nf = 1)
gl.plot(windowslist, All_vars,
labels = ["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend = ["Index Return"],
alpha = 0.8,
nf = 0)
gl.savefig(folder_images +'best_Objective.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
def IFE_f (self, ObjectiveR = 0.003, Rf = 0.0, year_start = 1996, year_finish = 2016, window = 10):
### The official one can be done executing the exercise c with another Rf
## Just another graph to show that now we should not use all the data.
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then calculate for the next year, the real return
# for that portfolio.
# Do this for several years as well.
self.set_Rf(Rf)
nf_flag = 1
All_stds = []
PortfolioReturns = []
IndexReturns = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start,year_finish - window + 1 - 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf = Rf) # Obtain allocation
self.set_allocation(w)
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics (investRf = "no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf)/(expRet - Rf)
wdesired = w*X
## Check that the output of this portfolio is the desired one.
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics() # Get the expected return for that year
# print ret
## Now that we have the desired w*X, we will calculate the resturn of
## the portfolio in the following year.
# To do so, we set the dates, only to the next year, set the portfolio allocation
# And calculate the yearly expected return !!
# Set the dates to only the next year !!
# Also, one month before in order to get the returns of the first month.
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1,1,1))
self.set_allocation(wdesired) # Set the allocation
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics() # Get the expected return for that year
PortfolioRet = self.yearly_Return(expRet) # Get yearly returns
PortfolioReturns.append(PortfolioRet)
All_stds.append(self.yearly_covMatrix(stdRet))
indexRet = self.get_indexMeanReturn()
indexRet = self.yearly_Return(indexRet)
IndexReturns.append(indexRet)
# dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(year_test + window + 1)
## Graph with the evolutio of the portfolio price after the assignment
gl.plot(range(1,13), np.cumsum(self.get_PortfolioReturn()),
nf = nf_flag,
labels = ["Evolution of returns by month", "Months passed", "Cumulative Return"],
legend = [str(year_test + window +1)])
nf_flag = 0
# print ret
gl.savefig(folder_images +'returnsEvolMonth.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
## Graph with the desired, the obtained returns and the returns of the index
gl.bar(all_dates[:], IndexReturns,
labels = ["Obtained returns", "Time (years)", "Return (%)"],
legend = ["Index Return"],
alpha = 0.8,
nf = 1)
gl.bar(all_dates[:], PortfolioReturns,
labels = ["Returns of year", "Year","Value"],
legend = ["Porfolio Return"],
alpha = 0.8,
nf = 0)
gl.scatter(all_dates[:], self.yearly_Return(ObjectiveR) * np.ones((len(all_dates[:]),1)),
legend = ["Objective Return"],
nf = 0)
gl.scatter(all_dates[:], All_stds,
legend = ["Std of the portfolio return"],
nf = 0)
gl.savefig(folder_images +'returnsEvolYears.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
#### Crazy idea !! Lets plot where the f*****g efficient frontier went
nf_flag = 1
PortfolioReturns = []
IndexReturns = []
all_dates = []
gl.set_subplots(2,3)
for year_test in range(year_start,year_start + 6): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1))
optimal, portfolios = self.efficient_frontier(kind = "Tangent")
self.plot_allocations(portfolios, labels = ["Evolution of the efficient frontier"],
legend = ["Frontier " + str(year_test + window) + " before"], color = "k", nf = 1)
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window + 1,1,1))
self.set_allocation(self.TangentPortfolio(Rf = Rf))
self.plot_allocations(portfolios, legend = ["Frontier " + str(year_test + window) + " after"], color = "r",nf = 0)
gl.savefig(folder_images +'effEvol.png',
dpi = 80, sizeInches = [4*8, 3*6])
def IFE_e (self, ObjectiveR = 0.003, Rf = 0.0, year_start = 1996, year_finish = 2016, window = 10):
# Just, choose a desired return,
# Using training Samples calculate using the market line
# the optimal porfolio for that.
# Then, using also the last year ( test), recalculate the portfolio needed
# for that return, and the difference between is the turnover
self.set_Rf(Rf)
nf_flag = 1
desired_Portfolios = []
all_dates = []
for year_test in range(year_start,year_finish - window + 1): # +1 !!
# Set the dates
self.pf.set_interval(dt.datetime(year_test,1,1),dt.datetime(year_test + window,1,1))
# Obtain the market line !!
w = self.TangentPortfolio(Rf = Rf) # Obtain allocation
# Obtain the expected return and std when using all our money !
self.set_allocation(w)
expRet, stdRet = self.get_metrics (investRf = "no")
param = bMl.obtain_equation_line(Rf, expRet, stdRet)
bias, slope = param
# Once we have the equation of the line, we obtain how much money
# we need to use to reach the desired Expecred Return.
# Rt = (1 - X)Rf + XRp with X = sum(w)
# For a desired Rt we solve the X
X = (ObjectiveR - Rf)/(expRet - Rf)
# print X
# So the desired porfolio is:
wdesired = w*X
desired_Portfolios.append(wdesired)
gl.plot([0,1.3*abs(X*stdRet)],[bias, bias + 1.3*abs(slope*stdRet*X)],
labels = ["Desired Portfolios", "Risk (std)", "Return (%)"],
legend = ["%s, X: %0.3f" %((year_test + window ), X[0])],
nf = nf_flag, loc = 2)
nf_flag = 0
gl.scatter([abs(X*stdRet)],[ObjectiveR],
nf = 0)
dates = self.get_dates()
all_dates.append(dates[-1])
# print wdesired
gl.savefig(folder_images +'desiredPortfolios.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 2*6])
# Now we calculate the turnovers
Turnovers = []
prev_abs_alloc = [] # Previous, absolute allocation
percentaje_changed = []
Nport = len(desired_Portfolios)
for i in range(Nport-1):
to = bMl.get_TurnOver(desired_Portfolios[i], desired_Portfolios[i+1])
Turnovers.append(to)
prev_abs_alloc.append(np.sum(np.abs(desired_Portfolios[i])))
percentaje_changed.append(Turnovers[-1]/prev_abs_alloc[-1])
print Turnovers
gl.set_subplots(1,3)
gl.bar(all_dates[1:], Turnovers, color = "g",
labels = ["Portfolio turnovers", "Year","Value"])
gl.add_text([all_dates[1:][3],max(Turnovers)*0.80],
"Mean: %0.2f" % np.mean(Turnovers), 30)
gl.bar(all_dates[0:-1], prev_abs_alloc, color = "r",
labels = ["Absolute allocations", "Year","Value"])
gl.bar(all_dates[1:], percentaje_changed, color = "b",
labels = ["Percentage turnover", "Year","Value"])
gl.add_text([all_dates[1:][3],max(percentaje_changed)*0.80],
"Mean: %0.2f" % np.mean(percentaje_changed), 30)
gl.savefig(folder_images +'turnovers.png',
dpi = 150, sizeInches = [2*8, 1*6])
N_IDLE.append(0)
for trailerid in different_trailers:
if (np.mean((registers_day[registers_day["EquipmentItemId"] ==
trailerid])["IDLE"]) == 1):
N_IDLE[-1] = N_IDLE[-1] + 1
# gl.step(days, N_IDLE, legend = ["IDLE Trailers"], alpha = 0.5, fill = 1, labels = ["Usage of Trailers","",DifferenOC[j]])
# gl.step(days, N_trucks, legend = ["Total Trailers"], nf = 0, alpha = 0.5, fill = 1)
#
propor_IDLE = np.sum(N_IDLE) / float(np.sum(N_trucks))
IDLE_prop.append(propor_IDLE)
# gl.subplots_adjust(left=.09, bottom=.10, right=.90, top=.95, wspace=.20, hspace=0)
# caca = ["d","df","d","$","f"]
gl.bar(DifferenOC.tolist(),
IDLE_prop,
labels=["Proportion of IDLE Trailers", "",
"Proportion"]) # DifferenOC.tolist()
#TODO: Gang number 99403034 29103929
Nregion = DifferenOC.size
precompute_trailers_IDLE = 0
if (precompute_trailers_IDLE):
total_days_onhire = 0
total_onhire = 0
list_IDLE = []
Nregion = DifferenOC.size
list_IDLE_Regions = [
] # Nregions x Ndays x Trailers that are IDLE the whole day bitch
list_days = [] # Nregions x Ndays
list_OSH_Regions = []
for j in range(Nregion): #Nregion
# gl.plot_wid(timeData.get_dates(), timeSeries, scrolling = 200)
ws = 50
gl.step(dates, timeSeries, legend=["price"], ws=ws)
timeSeries = timeData.get_timeSeries(["Low"])
gl.step(dates, timeSeries, legend=["price"], ws=ws, color="red", nf=0)
timeSeries = timeData.get_timeSeries(["Volume"])
# gl.step(timeData.dates,timeSeries,
# legend = ["price"],
# ws = ws,
# color = "red",
# nf = 0, na = 1, fill = 1)
gl.bar(dates, timeSeries, legend=["price"], ws=ws, color="red", nf=0, na=1)
gl.add_slider(args={"wsize": ws}, plots_affected=[])
gl.add_hidebox()
list_values = []
gl.add_selector(list_values)
gl.add_onKeyPress()
# type(timeData.TD.index)
# cad = pd.DataFrame(index = time_index)
# caca = pd.to_datetime(time_index.T.tolist())
# print caca
#
# ld = CGraph()
# ld = copy.copy(gl)
eu_dist = hf.get_doc_sims(All_bow, BoW)
best_common, best_common_i = uf.sort_and_get_order(eu_dist[:-1].tolist(),
reverse=False)
# print best_common_i[:5]
# print dict_files
# plt.close("all")
gl.set_subplots(1, 3)
for i in range(3):
BoW_values = All_bow[str(best_common_i[i])].values
BoW_index = All_bow.index
Nwords = 30
b_v, b_vi = uf.sort_and_get_order(BoW_values, reverse=True)
gl.bar(BoW_index[b_vi[0:Nwords]].tolist(),
BoW_values[b_vi[0:Nwords]],
legend=[dict_files[best_common_i[i]].split("/")[-1]],
labels=["", "", "Num"],
nf=1)
## Get the BoW of the most common:
plotting_thins = 0
if (plotting_thins == 1):
query_dirs = ["./books/0/Winchester", "Yorkshire Battles"]
query_dirs = ["1342-0.txt", "11-0.txt"]
labels = [
"Pride and Prejudice", "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland",
"Trading Book"
]
gl.set_subplots(3, 1)
for i in range(3):