def test_using_weights_col_gives_correct_results(
self, cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value):
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value = cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value[
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"] > 0]
cdnow_customers_weights = cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value.copy()
cdnow_customers_weights["weights"] = 1.0
cdnow_customers_weights = cdnow_customers_weights.groupby(
["frequency", "monetary_value"])["weights"].sum()
cdnow_customers_weights = cdnow_customers_weights.reset_index()
assert (cdnow_customers_weights["weights"] > 1).any()
gg_weights = lt.GammaGammaFitter(penalizer_coef=0.0)
gg_weights.fit(
cdnow_customers_weights["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_weights["monetary_value"],
weights=cdnow_customers_weights["weights"],
)
gg_no_weights = lt.GammaGammaFitter(penalizer_coef=0.0)
gg_no_weights.fit(
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"])
npt.assert_almost_equal(
np.array(gg_no_weights._unload_params("p", "q", "v")),
np.array(gg_weights._unload_params("p", "q", "v")),
decimal=3,
)
def test_fit_with_index(self, cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value):
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value = cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value[
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"] > 0]
ggf = lt.GammaGammaFitter()
index = range(len(returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value), 0,
-1)
ggf.fit(
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"],
index=index,
)
assert (ggf.data.index == index).all()
ggf = lt.GammaGammaFitter()
ggf.fit(
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"],
index=None,
)
assert not (ggf.data.index == index).all()
def test_customer_lifetime_value_with_bgf(
self, cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value):
ggf = lt.GammaGammaFitter()
ggf.params_ = pd.Series({"p": 6.25, "q": 3.74, "v": 15.44})
bgf = lt.BetaGeoFitter()
bgf.fit(
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["recency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["T"],
)
ggf_clv = ggf.customer_lifetime_value(
bgf,
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["recency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["T"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"],
)
utils_clv = utils._customer_lifetime_value(
bgf,
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["recency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["T"],
ggf.conditional_expected_average_profit(
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"]),
)
npt.assert_equal(ggf_clv.values, utils_clv.values)
ggf_clv = ggf.customer_lifetime_value(
bgf,
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["recency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["T"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"],
freq="H",
)
utils_clv = utils._customer_lifetime_value(
bgf,
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["recency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["T"],
ggf.conditional_expected_average_profit(
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"]),
freq="H",
)
npt.assert_equal(ggf_clv.values, utils_clv.values)
def test_params_out_is_close_to_Hardie_paper(
self, cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value):
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value = cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value[
cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"] > 0]
ggf = lt.GammaGammaFitter()
ggf.fit(
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["frequency"],
returning_cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value["monetary_value"],
)
expected = np.array([6.25, 3.74, 15.44])
npt.assert_array_almost_equal(expected,
np.array(
ggf._unload_params("p", "q", "v")),
decimal=2)
def test_conditional_expected_average_profit(
self, cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value):
ggf = lt.GammaGammaFitter()
ggf.params_ = pd.Series({"p": 6.25, "q": 3.74, "v": 15.44})
summary = cdnow_customers_with_monetary_value.head(10)
estimates = ggf.conditional_expected_average_profit(
summary["frequency"], summary["monetary_value"])
expected = np.array([
24.65, 18.91, 35.17, 35.17, 35.17, 71.46, 18.91, 35.17, 27.28,
35.17
]) # from Hardie spreadsheet http://brucehardie.com/notes/025/
npt.assert_allclose(estimates.values, expected, atol=0.1)
The distribution of average transaction values across customers is independent of the transaction process.
'''
# We are considering only customers who made repeat purchases with the business i.e., frequency > 0. Because, if frequency is 0, it means that they are one time customer and are considered already dead.
# final assumption (no relationship between frequency and monetary value of transactions) can be validated using Pearson correlation.
# Checking the relationship between frequency and monetary_value
# return_customers_summary = summary[summary['frequency']>0]
return_customers_summary = summary[summary['frequency']>0][summary['monetary_value']>0] # added additional filter to exclude transactions with <=0 monetary_value
print(return_customers_summary.shape)
return_customers_summary.head()
# Checking the relationship between frequency and monetary_value
return_customers_summary[['frequency', 'monetary_value']].corr()
# Modeling the monetary value using Gamma-Gamma Model
ggf = lifetimes.GammaGammaFitter(penalizer_coef=0.001)
ggf.fit(return_customers_summary['frequency'],
return_customers_summary['monetary_value'])
# Summary of the fitted parameters
ggf.summary
# predict using the model
# predict the expected average profit for each each transaction and Customer Lifetime Value using the model
# Calculating the conditional expected average profit for each customer per transaction
# model.conditional_expected_average_profit(): This method computes the conditional expectation of the average profit per transaction for a group of one or more customers
summary = summary[summary['monetary_value'] >0]
summary['exp_avg_sales'] = ggf.conditional_expected_average_profit(summary['frequency'],
summary['monetary_value'])
def load_data(data, day=t_days, profit=profit_m):
input_data = pd.read_csv(data)
input_data = pd.DataFrame(input_data.iloc[:, 1:])
#Pareto Model
pareto_model = lifetimes.ParetoNBDFitter(penalizer_coef=0.1)
pareto_model.fit(input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
input_data[
"p_not_alive"] = 1 - pareto_model.conditional_probability_alive(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
input_data["p_alive"] = pareto_model.conditional_probability_alive(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"], input_data["T"])
t = days
input_data[
"predicted_purchases"] = pareto_model.conditional_expected_number_of_purchases_up_to_time(
t, input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
#Gamma Gamma Model
idx = input_data[(input_data["frequency"] <= 0.0)]
idx = idx.index
input_data = input_data.drop(idx, axis=0)
m_idx = input_data[(input_data["monetary_value"] <= 0.0)].index
input_data = input_data.drop(m_idx, axis=0)
input_data.reset_index().drop("index", axis=1, inplace=True)
ggf_model = lifetimes.GammaGammaFitter(penalizer_coef=0.1)
ggf_model.fit(input_data["frequency"], input_data["monetary_value"])
input_data[
"expected_avg_sales_"] = ggf_model.conditional_expected_average_profit(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["monetary_value"])
input_data["predicted_clv"] = ggf_model.customer_lifetime_value(
pareto_model,
input_data["frequency"],
input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"],
input_data["monetary_value"],
time=30,
freq='D',
discount_rate=0.01)
input_data["profit_margin"] = input_data["predicted_clv"] * profit
input_data = input_data.reset_index().drop("index", axis=1)
#K-Means Model
col = [
"predicted_purchases", "expected_avg_sales_", "predicted_clv",
"profit_margin"
]
new_df = input_data[col]
k_model = KMeans(n_clusters=4,
init="k-means++",
n_jobs=-1,
max_iter=1000).fit(new_df)
labels = k_model.labels_
labels = pd.Series(labels, name="Labels")
input_data = pd.concat([input_data, labels], axis=1)
st.write(input_data)
#adding a count bar chart
fig = alt.Chart(input_data).mark_bar().encode(y="Labels:N",
x="count(Labels):Q")
#adding a annotation to the chart
text = fig.mark_text(align="left", baseline="middle",
dx=3).encode(text="count(Labels):Q")
chart = (fig + text)
#showing the chart
st.altair_chart(chart, use_container_width=True)
#creating a button to download the result
st.markdown("""
### Download Your File Now!!!
""")
text = """\
There is currently no official way of downloading data from Streamlit as if now. So Please download the data from the below link using **"Save As"**."""
st.markdown(text)
download = input_data
# When no file name is given, pandas returns the CSV as a string, nice.
csv = download.to_csv(index=False)
b64 = base64.b64encode(csv.encode()).decode(
) # some strings <-> bytes conversions necessary here
href = f'<a href="data:file/csv;base64,{b64}">Download CSV File</a> (right-click and save as <some_name>.csv)'
st.markdown(href, unsafe_allow_html=True)
def load_data(data, day=t_days, profit=profit_m):
input_data = pd.read_csv(data)
input_data = pd.DataFrame(input_data.iloc[:, 1:])
#Pareto Model
pareto_model = lifetimes.ParetoNBDFitter(penalizer_coef=0.1)
pareto_model.fit(input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
input_data[
"p_not_alive"] = 1 - pareto_model.conditional_probability_alive(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
input_data["p_alive"] = pareto_model.conditional_probability_alive(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"], input_data["T"])
t = days
input_data[
"predicted_purchases"] = pareto_model.conditional_expected_number_of_purchases_up_to_time(
t, input_data["frequency"], input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"])
#Gamma Gamma Model
idx = input_data[(input_data["frequency"] <= 0.0)]
idx = idx.index
input_data = input_data.drop(idx, axis=0)
m_idx = input_data[(input_data["monetary_value"] <= 0.0)].index
input_data = input_data.drop(m_idx, axis=0)
input_data.reset_index().drop("index", axis=1, inplace=True)
ggf_model = lifetimes.GammaGammaFitter(penalizer_coef=0.1)
ggf_model.fit(input_data["frequency"], input_data["monetary_value"])
input_data[
"expected_avg_sales_"] = ggf_model.conditional_expected_average_profit(
input_data["frequency"], input_data["monetary_value"])
input_data["predicted_clv"] = ggf_model.customer_lifetime_value(
pareto_model,
input_data["frequency"],
input_data["recency"],
input_data["T"],
input_data["monetary_value"],
time=30,
freq='D',
discount_rate=0.01)
input_data["profit_margin"] = input_data["predicted_clv"] * profit
input_data = input_data.reset_index().drop("index", axis=1)
#K-Means Model
col = [
"predicted_purchases", "expected_avg_sales_", "predicted_clv",
"profit_margin"
]
new_df = input_data[col]
k_model = KMeans(n_clusters=4,
init="k-means++",
n_jobs=-1,
max_iter=1000).fit(new_df)
labels = k_model.labels_
labels = pd.Series(labels, name="Labels")
input_data = pd.concat([input_data, labels], axis=1)
label_mapper = dict({0: "Low", 3: "Medium", 1: "High", 2: "V_High"})
input_data["Labels"] = input_data["Labels"].map(label_mapper)
#saving the input data in the separate variable
download = input_data
st.write(input_data)
#adding a count bar chart
fig = alt.Chart(input_data).mark_bar().encode(y="Labels:N",
x="count(Labels):Q")
#adding a annotation to the chart
text = fig.mark_text(align="left", baseline="middle",
dx=3).encode(text="count(Labels):Q")
chart = (fig + text)
#showing the chart
st.altair_chart(chart, use_container_width=True)
#creating a button to download the result
if st.button("Download"):
st.write(
"Successfully Downloaded!!! Please Check Your Default Download Location...:smile:"
)
return download.to_csv("customer_lifetime_prediction_result.csv")
