def cv_evaluation_range(model, n_fold, X_train, y_train, score_function):
scores = []
cv = StratifiedKFold(y_train, n_folds=n_fold, random_state=1001)
enumerate(cv)
for i, (t, v) in enumerate(cv):
# train then immediately predict the test set
y_hat = model.fit(X_train.loc[t], y_train.loc[t]).predict(X_train.loc[v])
# stash the overall error on the test set for the fold too
scores.append( score_function(y_train[v], y_hat) )
return [np.mean(scores) - 1.96*np.sd(scores), np.mean(scores) + 1.96*np.sd(scores)]
def normalize(self, data : np.array) -> np.array:
"""
2D normalization:
Data = (Data - Mean)/standard_deviation
Args:
data : 2d numpy array
Return
normalized 2d numpy array data
"""
mean = []
standard_deviation = []
sample_size, feature_size = data.shape
for i in range(feature_size):
each_mean = np.mean(data[:,i])
each_sd = np.sd(data[:,i]) # can also use : each_sd = np.max(data[:,i]) - np.min(data[:,i])
mean.append(each_mean)
standard_deviation.append(each_sd)
normalized_data = (data - mean) / standard_deviation
return normalized_data
def Ztest(perm_dict, out_fp):
"this calculate a zscore and zstat from perm_dict values"
#Print out ztest results
#Columns are 1) exp coreness 2) Permutation mean 3) Perm sd 4) clade zscore 5) pval
out_file = out_fp + "_stats.txt"
f1 = open(out_file, 'w+')
for otu in perm_dict:
exp = perm_dict[otu][0] # observed coreness
m = mean(perm_dict[otu][1:]) # mean perms
s = sd(perm_dict[otu][1:]) # standard deviation perms
if s == 0: # might need to develop a different solution for this.
z = 1
p = norm.sf(z) #upper tail of cumulative probability distribution
print >> f1, "%s\t" % otu,
print >> f1, "\t".join(
"%.2E" % x for x in [exp, m, s, z, p]), #join stats and print
print >> f1, "\n",
else:
z = (float(exp) - float(m)) / float(s) #zscore
p = norm.sf(z) #upper tail of cumulative probability distribution
print >> f1, "%s\t" % otu,
#print >> f1, "\t".join("%4.3f" % x for x in [exp,m,s,z,p]), #join stats and print
print >> f1, "\t".join(
"%.2E" % x for x in [exp, m, s, z, p]), #join stats and print
print >> f1, "\n",
f1.close()
return None
def metrics(wealth):
n = len(wealth)
times = range(n)
plt.plot(times, wealth, c='blue')
plt.title('Evolution of the wealth')
plt.xlabel('Seconds')
plt.ylabel('Dollars')
plt.show()
log_wealth = np.log(wealth)
list_logreturns = np.diff(log_wealth)
plt.plot(range(n - 1), list_logreturns, c='blue')
plt.title('Evolution of the log-returns')
plt.xlabel('Seconds')
plt.show()
plt.hist(list_logreturns, bins='auto')
plt.title('Distribution of the log-returns')
plt.show()
#Maybe do montecarlo and compute VaR = np.percentile(montecarlo_logreturns,5)
sharpe = np.mean(list_logreturns) / np.sd(list_logreturns)
print('The Sharpe ratio is:', sharpe)
cum_return = (wealth[n - 1] - wealth[0]) / wealth[0]
print('The total cumulative return is:', cum_return)
return
def roll_stats():
probabilities = {};
values = all_values()
avg = np.mean(values)
med = np.median(values)
sd = np.sd(values)
counts = Counter(values)
for c in counts:
probabilities[str (c)] = str (counts[c]) + '/' + str (len(values))
return {'avg': avg, 'median': med, 'probabilities': probabilities, 'counts': counts, 'sd': sd}
def negative_gradient(self, y, pred, **kargs):
"""Compute the residual (= negative gradient). """
self.ind1 = np.where(y==1)[0]
self.n1 = len(self.ind1)
self.ind0 = np.where(y==0)[0]
self.n0 = len(self.ind0)
# our predictions are between [0,1] but the algorithm expects [-1,1]
pred = (pred - 0.5) / np.sd(pred)
self.M0 = np.repeat(pred[self.ind1], self.n0) - pred[self.ind0]
M1 = self.approx_grad(self.M0)
ng = np.empty(self.n0 + self.n1)
ng[self.ind1] = np.sum(M1, axis=1)
ng[self.ind0] = np.sum(M1, axis=0)
return ng
def dg_from_dist(n_samples=25, offset=-10.0):
"""
Generate some fake results for MMGBSA then return mean and
standard error as an uncertainty estimate.
Parameters
----------
n_samples: integer
Number of samples to draw
offset: float
Offset from 0 - generally MMGBSA results are more negative than
experimental ones
"""
target = -1 * halfnorm.rvs(size=1)[0] + offset
sample = np.random.randn(n_samples) + target
return np.mean(sample), np.sd(sample)/np.sqrt(n_samples)
def con_general(infile):
with open(infile, 'r') as f:
text = f.readlines()
constraints = [ccondense(cstrip(line)) for line in text if ...]
conlengths = [len(constraint) for constraint in constraints]
return conlengths
def cstrip(constraint):
...
def ccondense(constraint): # or just len?
...
import numpy
conlengths = con_general('...')
print numpy.mean(conlengths)
print numpy.sd(conlengths)
#print distribution or at least hist
def sd(lst):
return np.sd(lst)
if sample2.endswith("S2"):
area1.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S3"):
area1.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S7"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S8"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S10"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S9"):
area3.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S11"):
area3.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S12"):
area3.append(value2)
else:
area4.append(value2)
if sample in Stab_Dictionary.keys():
stabval = Stab_Dictionary[sample]
pval = stabval[0]
qval = stabval[1]
sigma = stabval[2]
else:
pval = 'NaN'
qval = 'NaN'
sigma = 'NaN'
outfile.write(sample + "\t" + str(np.mean(area1)) + "\t" + str(np.mean(area2)) + "\t" + str(np.mean(area3)) + "\t" + str(np.mean(area4)) + "\t" + str(np.sd(area1)) + "\t" + str(np.sd(area2)) + "\t" + str(np.sd(area3)) + "\t" + str(np.sd(area4)) + "\t" + pval + "\t" + qval + "\t" + sigma + "\n")
def standardized_returns(midprices):
log_midprices = np.log(midprices)
logreturns = np.diff(log_midprices)
return (logreturns - np.mean(logreturns)) / np.sd(logreturns)
def song_calc(song_lst):
if len(song_lst) > 10:
return numpy.mean(song_lst),numpy.sd(song_lst)
return "This playlist is not long enough to use these measurements"
area1.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S7"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S8"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S10"):
area2.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S9"):
area3.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S11"):
area3.append(value2)
if sample2.endswith("S12"):
area3.append(value2)
else:
area4.append(value2)
if sample in Stab_Dictionary.keys():
stabval = Stab_Dictionary[sample]
pval = stabval[0]
qval = stabval[1]
sigma = stabval[2]
else:
pval = "NaN"
qval = "NaN"
sigma = "NaN"
outfile.write(sample + "\t" + np.mean(area1) + "\t" + np.mean(area2) + "\t" +
np.mean(area3) + "\t" + np.mean(area4) + "\t" + np.sd(area1) +
"\t" + np.sd(area2) + "\t" + np.sd(area3) + "\t" + np.sd(area4) +
"\t" + pval + "\t" + qval + "\t" + sigma + "\n")
def con_general(infile):
with open(infile, 'r') as f:
text = f.readlines()
constraints = [ccondense(cstrip(line)) for line in text if ...]
conlengths = [len(constraint) for constraint in constraints]
return conlengths
def cstrip(constraint):
...
def ccondense(constraint): # or just len?
...
import numpy
conlengths = con_general('...')
print numpy.mean(conlengths)
print numpy.sd(conlengths)
#print distribution or at least hist
def modelRun(seedComplexity,seedSQ,seedSkillRange,seedDesignerN,seedManagerN,seedAppointeeN,seedIdeologyMean,seedIdeologySD):
""" main control loop """
# convert complexity to a string length
complexity = int(round(50 + (200 * seedComplexity),0))
######
# check input parameters for errors
######
if seedComplexity < 0 or seedComplexity > 1:
print "Please set seedComplexity between 0 and 1"
return
if seedSQ < 0.1 or seedSQ > 0.6:
print "Please set seedSQ between 0.1 and 0.6"
return
if seedDesignerN % 1 == 0 or seedManagerN % 1 == 0 or seedAppointeeN % 1 == 0:
pass
else:
print "Please set the number of agents to a whole number"
return
if seedDesignerN == 0 or seedManagerN == 0 or seedAppointeeN == 0:
print "All agent types should have at least 1 representative"
return
else:
pass
if seedIdeologySD > 0.2:
# getting up too high will just result in a highly bi-modal distribution of ideology, which
# is fine, but should be noted in any case (because of the truncated distribution)
print "Ideology deviations greater than 0.2 may yield unbalanced results"
# storage for results from model run
run_output = {
"seedComplexity" : seedComplexity,
"seedSQ" : seedSQ,
"seedDesignerN" : seedDesignerN,
"seedManagerN" : seedManagerN,
"seedAppointeeN" : seedAppointeeN,
"seedIdeologyMean" : seedIdeologyMean,
"seedIdeologySD" : seedIdeologySD,
"seedSkillLow" : seedSkillRange[0],
"seedSkillHigh" : seedSkillRange[1],
"seedSkillRange" : abs(seedSkillRange[1] - seedSkillRange[0]),
"spanOfControl" : seedDesignerN / seedManagerN
}
print "gen problem part"
# generate the problem to be solved
problem = genProblem(seedComplexity,complexity,seedSQ)
problem = ''.join([str(i) for i in problem])
run_output['problem'] = problem
print "gen agents part"
# generate a list of agents
# and establish their basic characteristics
agents = genAgents(seedSkillRange,seedDesignerN,seedManagerN,seedAppointeeN,seedIdeologyMean,seedIdeologySD)
for a in agents:
for d in a:
print 'define skill'
d.defineSkill(seedSkillRange)
print 'define ideal'
d.defineIdeal(complexity)
print 'define tolerance'
# NOTE: THIS FUNCTION HAS BEEN HANGING FOR SOME REASON
#d.defineTolerance(seedSQ)
# split into occupation class lists
designers = agents[0]
managers = agents[1]
appointees = agents[2]
# merge designers and managers for the design step
# will only use the merged sometimes, but can be useful
dlist = designers + managers
# hill climbing deliberation structure
print "starting deliberation"
revised_proposal = designer_revisions_HC1(designers,managers,problem)
print "finished deliberation"
proposal = revised_proposal[0]
run_output['proposal'] = revised_proposal[0]
run_output['dissatisfaction'] = revised_proposal[1]
run_output['iterations'] = revised_proposal[2]
run_output['pctchange_hd'] = revised_proposal[3]
run_output['rawchange_hd'] = revised_proposal[4]
run_output['pctimprove'] = revised_proposal[5]
run_output['pctchange_hw'] = revised_proposal[6]
run_output['rawchange_hw'] = revised_proposal[7]
# estimate proactivty prior to appointee
hd_proactivity = hamming_distance(problem,proposal) / len(problem)
sqWeight = seedSQ * len(problem)
maxWeight = len(problem)
minWeight = 0
if maxWeight - sqWeight >= sqWeight - minWeight:
maxChange = maxWeight - sqWeight
else:
maxChange = sqWeight - minWeight
hw_proactivity = abs(problem.count("1") - proposal.count("1")) / maxChange
run_output['hw_proactivity'] = hd_proactivity
run_output['hd_proactivity'] = hw_proactivity
# appointee veto
appointeeResults = []
for a in appointees:
# check direction of change relative to appointee ideal
p1weight = problem.count("1")
p2weight = proposal.count("1")
aweight = str(a.getIdeal()).count("1")
appointeeOutcome = 'na'
# proposal reduces agency involvement, appointee prefer decrease
if p1weight > p2weight and aweight < p1weight:
appointeeOutcome = "approve"
# proposal increases agency involvement, appointee prefers increase
if p1weight <= p2weight and aweight >= p1weight:
appointeeOutcome = "approve"
# proposal reduces agency involvement, appointee prefers increase
if p1weight > p2weight and aweight >= p1weight:
appointeeOutcome = "reject"
# proposal increases agency involvement, appointee prefers decrease
if p1weight < p2weight and aweight < p1weight:
appointeeOutcome = "reject"
# proposal recommends no cahnge in agency involvement, appointee prefers decrease
if p1weight == p2weight and aweight < p2weight:
appointeeOutcome = "approve"
# proposal recommends no cahnge in agency involvement, appointee prefers increase
# this case is covered by second conditional above
# if p1weight == p2weight and aweight >= p2weight:
appointeeResults.append(appointeeOutcome)
appointeeOutcome = appointeeResults[0]
run_output['appointeeOutcome'] = appointeeOutcome
# add in the agent aggregate statistics
for d in designers:
dlist.append(d.getAgentChars()['ideology'])
slist.append(d.getAgentChars()['skill'])
designerIdeoMean = numpy.mean(dlist)
designerIdeoSD = numpy.sd(dlist)
designerSkillMean = numpy.mean(slist)
designerSkillSD = numpy.sd(slist)
for d in managers:
dlist.append(d.getAgentChars()['ideology'])
slist.append(d.getAgentChars()['skill'])
managerIdeoMean = numpy.mean(dlist)
managerIdeoSD = numpy.sd(dlist)
managerSkillMean = numpy.mean(slist)
managerSkillSD = numpy.sd(slist)
for d in appointees:
dlist.append(d.getAgentChars()['ideology'])
slist.append(d.getAgentChars()['skill'])
appointeeIdeoMean = numpy.mean(dlist)
appointeeIdeoSD = numpy.sd(dlist)
appointeeSkillMean = numpy.mean(slist)
appointeeSkillSD = numpy.sd(slist)
# add to output
kys = ['designerIdeoMean', 'designerIdeoSD', 'designerSkillMean', 'designerSkillSD', 'managerIdeoMean',
'managerIdeoSD', 'managerSkillMean', 'managerSkillSD', 'appointeeIdeoMean', 'appointeeIdeoSD', 'appointeeSkillMean', 'appointeeSkillSD']
vals = [designerIdeoMean, designerIdeoSD, designerSkillMean, designerSkillSD, managerIdeoMean,
managerIdeoSD, managerSkillMean, managerSkillSD, appointeeIdeoMean, appointeeIdeoSD, appointeeSkillMean, appointeeSkillSD]
for i in kys, k in vals:
run_output[i] = k
# if it's acceptable, check political situtation
# if it's politically acceptable, enact and decide
for key,value in run_output.iteritems():
# if numeric, round off to 4 digits
if type(value).__name__ == 'int' or type(value).__name__ == 'float':
run_output[str(key)] = round(run_output[key],4)
else:
pass
print key + ":", str(value)
return run_output
