def predictive_log_likelihood(self, Xtest, data_index=0, Npred=100):
"""
Hacky way of computing the predictive log likelihood
:param X_pred:
:param data_index:
:param M:
:return:
"""
Tpred = Xtest.shape[0]
# Sample particle trajectories
preds = self.states_list[data_index].sample_predictions(Tpred, Npred)
preds = np.transpose(preds, [2, 0, 1])
assert preds.shape == (Npred, Tpred, self.n)
psis = np.array([pred.dot(self.C.T) + self.mu for pred in preds])
pis = np.array([ln_psi_to_pi(psi) for psi in psis])
# TODO: Generalize for multinomial
lls = np.zeros(Npred)
for m in xrange(Npred):
# lls[m] = np.sum(
# [Multinomial(weights=pis[m,t,:], K=self.p).log_likelihood(Xtest[t][None,:])
# for t in xrange(Tpred)])
lls[m] = np.nansum(Xtest * np.log(pis[m]))
# Compute the average
hll = logsumexp(lls) - np.log(Npred)
# Use bootstrap to compute error bars
samples = np.random.choice(lls, size=(100, Npred), replace=True)
hll_samples = logsumexp(samples, axis=1) - np.log(Npred)
std_hll = hll_samples.std()
return hll, std_hll
def log_likelihood(self):
ll = 0
for states in self.states_list:
psi = states.stateseq.dot(self.C.T) + self.mu
pi = ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
ll += np.sum(states.data * np.log(pi))
return ll
def generate(self, keep=True, Z=None, N=None, full_output=True):
assert Z is not None and Z.ndim == 2 and Z.shape[1] == self.D
M = Z.shape[0]
assert N.ndim == 1 and N.shape[0] == M and np.all(N) >= 1
assert N.dtype in (np.int32, np.int)
N = N.astype(np.int32)
# Compute the covariance of the Z's
C = self.kernel.K(Z)
# Sample from a zero mean GP, N(0, C) for each output, k
psis = np.zeros((M, self.K))
for k in range(self.K):
# TODO: Reuse the Cholesky
psis[:,k] = np.random.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(M), C)
# Add the mean vector
psis += self.mu[None,:]
# Sample from the multinomial distribution
pis = np.array([ln_psi_to_pi(psi) for psi in psis])
X = np.array([np.random.multinomial(N[m], pis[m]) for m in range(M)])
if keep:
self.add_data(Z, X)
if full_output:
return X, psis
else:
return X
def log_likelihood(self):
ll = 0
for states in self.states_list:
psi = states.stateseq.dot(self.C.T) + self.mu
pi = ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
ll += np.sum(states.data * np.log(pi))
return ll
def lda_initializer(model):
T, V = model.T, model.V
model.beta = np.exp(np.loadtxt('ctm-out/000-log-beta.dat')
.reshape((-1,V))).T
lmbda = np.loadtxt('ctm-out/000-lambda.dat').reshape((-1,T))
nonempty_docs = np.asarray(model.data.sum(1) > 0).ravel()
model.theta[nonempty_docs] = ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda)
model.resample_z()
return model
def lda_initializer(model):
T, V = model.T, model.V
model.beta = np.exp(np.loadtxt('ctm-out/000-log-beta.dat')
.reshape((-1,V))).T
lmbda = np.loadtxt('ctm-out/000-lambda.dat').reshape((-1,T))
nonempty_docs = np.asarray(model.data.sum(1) > 0).ravel()
model.theta[nonempty_docs] = ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda)
model.resample_z()
return model
def predict(self, Z_new, full_output=True, full_cov=False):
"""
Predict the multinomial probability vector at a grid of points, Z
:param Z_new:
:return:
"""
assert len(self.data_list) == 1, "Must have one data list in order to predict."
data = self.data_list[0]
M = data["M"]
Z = data["Z"]
assert Z_new is not None and Z_new.ndim == 2 and Z_new.shape[1] == self.D
M_new = Z_new.shape[0]
# Compute the kernel for Z_news
C = self.kernel.K(Z, Z)
Cvv = C + np.diag(1e-6 * np.ones(M))
Lvv = np.linalg.cholesky(Cvv)
Cnn = self.kernel.K(Z_new, Z_new)
# Compute the kernel between the new and valid points
Cnv = self.kernel.K(Z_new, Z)
# Predict the psis
mu_psis_new = np.zeros((self.K, M_new))
Sig_psis_new = np.zeros((self.K, M_new, M_new))
for k in range(self.K):
sys.stdout.write(".")
sys.stdout.flush()
psik = data["psi"][:,k]
# Compute the predictive parameters
y = solve_triangular(Lvv, psik, lower=True)
x = solve_triangular(Lvv.T, y, lower=False)
psik_pred = Cnv.dot(x)
# Save these into the combined arrays
mu_psis_new[k] = psik_pred + self.mu[k]
if full_cov:
# Sig_pred = Cnn - Cnv.dot(np.linalg.solve(Cvv, Cnv.T))
Sig_psis_new[k] = Cnn - Cnv.dot(dpotrs(Lvv, Cnv.T, lower=True)[0])
sys.stdout.write("\n")
sys.stdout.flush()
# Convert these to pis
pis_new = np.array([ln_psi_to_pi(psi) for psi in mu_psis_new])
if full_output:
return pis_new, mu_psis_new, Sig_psis_new
else:
return pis_new
def log_joint_C(C):
ll = 0
for states in self.states_list:
z = states.stateseq
psi = z.dot(C.T) + self.mu
pi = ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
# TODO: Generalize for multinomial
ll += np.nansum(states.data * np.log(pi))
ll += (-0.5 * C**2 / self.sigma_C).sum()
return ll
def log_joint_C(C):
ll = 0
for states in self.states_list:
z = states.stateseq
psi = z.dot(C.T) + self.mu
pi = ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
# TODO: Generalize for multinomial
ll += np.nansum(states.data * np.log(pi))
ll += (-0.5*C**2/self.sigma_C).sum()
return ll
def predictive_log_likelihood(self, Z_pred, X_pred):
"""
Predict the GP value at the inputs Z_pred and evaluate the likelihood of X_pred
"""
_, mu_pred, Sig_pred = self.predict(Z_pred, full_output=True)
psis = np.array([np.random.multivariate_normal(mu, Sig) for mu,Sig in zip(mu_pred, Sig_pred)])
pis = ln_psi_to_pi(psis.T)
pll = 0
pll += gammaln(X_pred.sum(axis=1)+1).sum() - gammaln(X_pred+1).sum()
pll += np.nansum(X_pred * np.log(pis))
return pll, pis
def predictive_log_likelihood(self, Xtest, data_index=0, Npred=100):
"""
Hacky way of computing the predictive log likelihood
:param X_pred:
:param data_index:
:param M:
:return:
"""
Tpred = Xtest.shape[0]
# Sample particle trajectories
preds = self.states_list[data_index].sample_predictions(Tpred, Npred)
preds = np.transpose(preds, [2,0,1])
assert preds.shape == (Npred, Tpred, self.n)
psis = np.array([pred.dot(self.C.T) + self.mu for pred in preds])
pis = np.array([ln_psi_to_pi(psi) for psi in psis])
# TODO: Generalize for multinomial
lls = np.zeros(Npred)
for m in xrange(Npred):
# lls[m] = np.sum(
# [Multinomial(weights=pis[m,t,:], K=self.p).log_likelihood(Xtest[t][None,:])
# for t in xrange(Tpred)])
lls[m] = np.nansum(Xtest * np.log(pis[m]))
# Compute the average
hll = logsumexp(lls) - np.log(Npred)
# Use bootstrap to compute error bars
samples = np.random.choice(lls, size=(100, Npred), replace=True)
hll_samples = logsumexp(samples, axis=1) - np.log(Npred)
std_hll = hll_samples.std()
return hll, std_hll
def pi(self):
return ln_psi_to_pi(self.psi)
nonempty_docs = np.asarray(model.data.sum(1) > 0).ravel()
model.theta[nonempty_docs] = ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda)
model.resample_z()
return model
fit_lda_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lda_gibbs', StandardLDA, 'resample', lda_initializer)
fit_lda_collapsed = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lda_collapsed', StandardLDA, 'resample_collapsed', lda_initializer)
fit_lnctm_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lnctm_gibbs', LogisticNormalCorrelatedLDA, 'resample',
make_ctm_initializer(lambda lmbda: lmbda))
fit_sbctm_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_sbctm_gibbs', StickbreakingCorrelatedLDA, 'resample',
make_ctm_initializer(lambda lmbda: pi_to_psi(ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda))))
########################
# inspecting results #
########################
def plot_sb_interpretable_results(sb_results, words):
nwords = 5
Sigma = sb_results[-1][-1]
T = Sigma.shape[0]
def get_topwords(topic):
return words[np.argsort(sb_results[-1][0][:,topic])[-nwords:]]
lim = np.abs(Sigma).max()
def pi(self):
psi = self.stateseq.dot(self.C.T)
return ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
nonempty_docs = np.asarray(model.data.sum(1) > 0).ravel()
model.theta[nonempty_docs] = ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda)
model.resample_z()
return model
fit_lda_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lda_gibbs', StandardLDA, 'resample', lda_initializer)
fit_lda_collapsed = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lda_collapsed', StandardLDA, 'resample_collapsed', lda_initializer)
fit_lnctm_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_lnctm_gibbs', LogisticNormalCorrelatedLDA, 'resample',
make_ctm_initializer(lambda lmbda: lmbda))
fit_sbctm_gibbs = sampler_fitter(
'fit_sbctm_gibbs', StickbreakingCorrelatedLDA, 'resample',
make_ctm_initializer(lambda lmbda: pi_to_psi(ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda))))
########################
# inspecting results #
########################
def plot_sb_interpretable_results(sb_results, words):
nwords = 5
Sigma = sb_results[-1][-1]
T = Sigma.shape[0]
def get_topwords(topic):
return words[np.argsort(sb_results[-1][0][:,topic])[-nwords:]]
lim = np.abs(Sigma).max()
def pi(self, augmented_data):
psi = self.psi(augmented_data)
return ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
def theta(self):
return ln_psi_to_pi(self.psi)
def wordprobs(data, val):
lmbda, beta = val['lmbda'], np.exp(val['log_beta'])
assert np.allclose(ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda).dot(beta).sum(1), 1.)
return ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda).dot(beta)[csr_nonzero(data)]
def wordprobs(data, val):
lmbda, beta = val['lmbda'], np.exp(val['log_beta'])
assert np.allclose(ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda).dot(beta).sum(1), 1.)
return ln_psi_to_pi(lmbda).dot(beta)[csr_nonzero(data)]
def pi(self):
psi = self.stateseq.dot(self.C.T)
return ln_psi_to_pi(psi)
def theta(self):
return ln_psi_to_pi(self.psi)
