def ee_error(self):
"""
Computes the euler equation error over the entire state space.
*Output
* Log10 euler_error
* max Log10 euler error
* average Log10 euler error
"""
# a. initialize
euler_error = np.zeros((self.Nz, self.Ns))
# b. helper function
u_prime = lambda c: c**(-self.sigma)
u_prime_inv = lambda x: x**(-1 / self.sigma)
# c. calculate euler error at all grid points
for i_z, z in enumerate(self.grid_z): #current income shock
for i_s, s0 in enumerate(self.grid_sav): #current asset level
# i. interpolate savings policy function grid point
a_plus = interp(self.grid_sav, self.pol_sav[i_z, :], s0)
# liquidity constrained, do not calculate error
if a_plus <= 0:
euler_error[i_z, i_s] = np.nan
# interior solution
else:
# ii. current consumption and initialize expected marginal utility
c = (1 + self.r) * s0 + self.w * z - a_plus
avg_marg_c_plus = 0
# iii. expected marginal utility
for i_zz, z_plus in enumerate(
self.grid_z): #next period productivity
c_plus = (
1 + self.r) * a_plus + self.w * z_plus - interp(
self.grid_sav, self.pol_sav[i_zz, :], a_plus)
#expectation of marginal utility of consumption
avg_marg_c_plus += self.pi[i_z, i_zz] * u_prime(c_plus)
# iv. compute euler error
euler_error[i_z, i_s] = 1 - u_prime_inv(
self.beta * (1 + self.r) * avg_marg_c_plus) / c
# ii. transform euler error with log_10. take max and average
euler_error = np.log10(np.abs(euler_error))
max_error = np.nanmax(np.nanmax(euler_error, axis=1))
avg_error = np.nanmean(euler_error)
return euler_error, max_error, avg_error
def MC(popu,
π_star,
w_vals,
ζ_vals,
δ_vals,
Γ_star,
P_ζ_cdfs,
P_δ,
μ,
π,
r,
R,
maxiter=1000,
tol=1e-5,
verbose=True):
"""
Monte Carlo simulation.
"""
# π is the true probability of invention success, not the perceived one
N = popu.shape[0]
# is there any gain by taking draws together outside the loop?
ι_draw_rvs = np.random.random((maxiter, N))
δ_draw_rvs = np.random.random((maxiter, N))
π_draw_rvs = np.random.random((maxiter, N))
ζ_draw_rvs = np.random.random((maxiter, N))
ζ_i_draw_rvs = np.zeros((maxiter, N), dtype=np.int64)
_generate_sample_paths(P_ζ_cdfs, popu[:, 1], ζ_draw_rvs, ζ_i_draw_rvs)
popu[:, 1] = ζ_i_draw_rvs[-1, :]
for i in range(maxiter):
popu_old = np.copy(popu)
for j in prange(N):
ι = 0 if ι_draw_rvs[i, j] < μ else 1
# update w
w = popu[j, 0]
ζ_i = ζ_i_draw_rvs[i, j]
ζ = ζ_vals[ζ_i]
k_tilde = interp(w_vals, π_star[ι, ζ_i, :, 1], w)
b = interp(w_vals, π_star[ι, ζ_i, :, 2], w)
δ_i = 0 if δ_draw_rvs[i, j] < P_δ[0] else 1
δ = δ_vals[δ_i]
next_w = (1 + r) * δ * k_tilde + (R - (1 + r) * δ) * b
# the invention decision
p_invention = interp(w_vals, π_star[ι, ζ_i, :, 0], w)
if p_invention > 0.5:
if π_draw_rvs[i, j] < π:
next_w += Γ_star
popu[j, 0] = next_w
def objective(c, v, y):
"""
The right hand side of the Bellman equation
"""
# First turn v into a function via interpolation
v_func = lambda x: interp(y_grid, v, x)
return u(c) + β * np.mean(v_func(f(y - c) * shocks))
def __init__(self, speclist, xtype="frequency", xarr=None, force=False, **kwargs):
if xarr is None:
self.xarr = speclist[0].xarr
else:
self.xarr = xarr
self.units = speclist[0].units
self.header = speclist[0].header
self.parse_header(self.header)
for spec in speclist:
if not isinstance(spec, Spectrum):
raise TypeError("Must create an ObsBlock with a list of spectra.")
if not np.array_equal(spec.xarr, self.xarr):
if not force:
raise ValueError("Mismatch between X axes in ObsBlock")
if spec.units != self.units:
raise ValueError("Mismatched units")
if force:
self.speclist = [interpolation.interp(spec, self) for spec in speclist]
else:
self.speclist = speclist
self.nobs = len(self.speclist)
# Create a 2-dimensional array of the data
self.data = np.array([sp.data for sp in self.speclist]).swapaxes(0, 1).squeeze()
self.error = np.array([sp.error for sp in self.speclist]).swapaxes(0, 1).squeeze()
self.plotter = plotters.Plotter(self)
self._register_fitters()
self.specfit = fitters.Specfit(self, Registry=self.Registry)
self.baseline = baseline.Baseline(self)
def folded_cpl_evolution(
energy,
time,
peak_flux,
ep_start,
ep_tau,
emin,
emax,
alpha,
redshift,
Nrest,
gamma,
response,
):
return interp(response[0], response[1], energy) * corr_cpl_evolution(
energy,
time,
peak_flux,
ep_start,
ep_tau,
emin,
emax,
alpha,
redshift,
Nrest,
gamma,
)
def compute_aggregates(self, popu):
"""
compute aggregates using stationary distribution.
"""
# simplify notations
π_star, w_vals, ζ_vals = self.π_star, self.hh.w_vals, self.hh.ζ_vals
# K_tilde and B
aggregates = np.zeros(2)
for h_i in range(self.hh.π.size):
for ζ_i in range(len(ζ_vals)):
w_subsample = popu[popu[:, 1, h_i] == ζ_i, 0, h_i]
ζ_weight = len(w_subsample) / len(popu)
for ι_i in range(2):
# compute K_tilde and B
for i in range(2):
aggregates[i] += self.hh.α[h_i] * self.hh.P_ι[ι_i] * ζ_weight * \
interp(w_vals, π_star[ι_i, ζ_i, :, i+1],
w_subsample).mean()
# K = K_tilde - B
K = aggregates[0] - aggregates[1]
B = aggregates[1]
return K, B
def vec_eval(p):
N = p.shape[0]
out = np.zeros(N)
for n in range(N):
z1 = p[n, 0]
z2 = p[n, 1]
out[n] = interp(x1, x2, y, z1, z2)
return out
def _find_mNrmStE(m, Rfree, PermGroFac, mNrm, cNrm, Ex_IncNext):
# Make a linear function of all combinations of c and m that yield mNext = mNow
mZeroChange = (1.0 - PermGroFac / Rfree) * m + (PermGroFac / Rfree) * Ex_IncNext
# Find the steady state level of market resources
res = interp(mNrm, cNrm, m) - mZeroChange
# A zero of this is SS market resources
return res
def objective(c, σ, y):
"""
The right hand side of the operator
"""
# First turn w into a function via interpolation
σ_func = lambda x: interp(grid, σ, x)
vals = u_prime(σ_func(f(y - c) * shocks)) * f_prime(y - c) * shocks
return u_prime(c) - β * np.mean(vals)
def solve_egm(self, pol_cons_old, ret_ss, w_ss):
"""
Endogenous grid method to help solve the household problem
"""
# a. initialize
c_tilde = np.empty((self.Nz, self.Ns))
a_star = np.empty((self.Nz, self.Ns))
pol_cons = np.empty((self.Nz, self.Ns))
for i_z in range(self.Nz):
# b. find RHS of euler equation (step 3 in EGM algo)
avg_marg_u_plus = np.zeros(self.Ns)
for i_zz in range(self.Nz):
# i. future consumption
c_plus = pol_cons_old[i_zz, :]
# iii. future marginal utility
marg_u_plus = self.u_prime(c_plus)
# iv. average marginal utility
weight = self.pi[i_z, i_zz]
avg_marg_u_plus += weight * marg_u_plus
ee_rhs = (1 + ret_ss) * self.beta * avg_marg_u_plus
# b. find current consumption (step 4 EGM algo)
c_tilde[i_z, :] = self.u_prime_inv(ee_rhs)
# c. get the endogenous grid of the value of assets today (step 5 EGM algo)
a_star[i_z, :] = (c_tilde[i_z, :] + self.grid_sav -
self.grid_z[i_z] * w_ss) / (1 + ret_ss)
# d. update new consumption policy guess on savings grid
for i_s, v_s in enumerate(self.grid_sav):
if v_s <= a_star[
i_z,
0]: #borrowing constrained, outside the grid range on the left
pol_cons[i_z, i_s] = (1 + ret_ss) * v_s + self.grid_sav[
0] + self.grid_z[i_z] * w_ss
elif v_s >= a_star[
i_z,
-1]: # , linearly extrapolate, outside the grid range on the right
pol_cons[
i_z,
i_s] = c_tilde[i_z, -1] + (v_s - a_star[i_z, -1]) * (
c_tilde[i_z, -1] - c_tilde[i_z, -2]) / (
a_star[i_z, -1] - a_star[i_z, -2])
else: #linearly interpolate, inside the grid range
pol_cons[i_z, i_s] = interp(a_star[i_z, :],
c_tilde[i_z, :], v_s)
return pol_cons, a_star
def correlate(spectrum1, spectrum2, range=None, units=None, errorweight=False):
"""
Cross-correlate spectrum1 with spectrum2
"""
if range is not None:
spectrum1 = spectrum1.slice(*range, units=units)
spectrum2 = spectrum2.slice(*range, units=units)
if not (spectrum1.xarr.shape == spectrum2.xarr.shape) or not all(
spectrum1.xarr == spectrum2.xarr):
spectrum2 = interpolation.interp(spectrum2, spectrum1)
data1 = spectrum1.data
data2 = spectrum2.data
xcorr = np.correlate(data1, data2, mode='same')
# very simple propagation of error
# each element is multiplied, multiplicative error is given such that (sigma_xy/xy)**2 = (sigma_x/x)**2 + (sigma_y/y)**2
# error = (np.correlate( (spectrum1.error/spectrum1.data)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same') +
# np.correlate( (spectrum2.error/spectrum2.data)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same'))**0.5 * xcorr
# That approach sucks - what if data == 0?
#
# this might be more correct: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4069v1.pdf eqn 4
# but it doesn't quite fit my naive expectations so:
error = (np.correlate(
(spectrum1.error)**2, np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same') +
np.correlate(
(spectrum2.error)**2, np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same'))**0.5
xarr = spectrum1.xarr
xrange = xarr.max() - xarr.min()
xmin = -xrange / 2.
xmax = xrange / 2.
offset_values = np.linspace(xmin, xmax, len(xarr))
offset_xarr = units_module.SpectroscopicAxis(offset_values,
unit=xarr.units)
header = headers.intersection(spectrum1.header, spectrum2.header)
header.update('CRPIX1', 1)
try:
header.update('CRVAL1', xmin)
except ValueError:
header.update('CRVAL1', xmin.tolist())
header.update('CDELT1', offset_xarr.cdelt())
return classes.XCorrSpectrum(xarr=offset_xarr,
data=xcorr,
header=header,
error=error)
def evaluate(self, v):
out = interp(self.x, self.y, v)
# set outside bounds to zero
for i in range(v.shape[0]):
if v[i] > self.xmax:
out[i] = 0.
elif v[i] < self.xmin:
out[i] = 0.
return out
def folded_cpl_evolution(
energy,
time,
peak_flux,
ep,
alpha,
emin,
emax,
response,
):
return interp(response[0], response[1], energy) * cpl_evolution(
energy, time, peak_flux, ep, alpha, emin, emax)
def evaluate(self, x, NH, redshift):
if isinstance(x, astropy_units.Quantity):
_unit = astropy_units.cm**2
_y_unit = astropy_units.dimensionless_unscaled
_x = x.value
_redshift = redshift.value
else:
_unit = 1.0
_y_unit = 1.0
_redshift = redshift
_x = x
xsect_interp = interp(self.xsect_ene, self.xsect_val,
_x * (1 + _redshift))
xsect_interp = interp( self.xsect_ene, self.xsect_val, _x * (1+ _redshift))
spec = _numba_eval(NH,xsect_interp) * _y_unit
return spec
def T(f):
"""
The Lucas operator
"""
# Turn f into a function
Af = lambda x: interp(grid, f, x)
Tf = np.empty_like(f)
# Apply the T operator to f using Monte Carlo integration
for i in prange(len(grid)):
y = grid[i]
Tf[i] = h[i] + β * np.mean(Af(y**α * z_vec))
return Tf
def correlate(spectrum1, spectrum2, range=None, units=None, errorweight=False):
"""
Cross-correlate spectrum1 with spectrum2
"""
if range is not None:
spectrum1 = spectrum1.slice(*range, units=units)
spectrum2 = spectrum2.slice(*range, units=units)
if not (spectrum1.xarr.shape == spectrum2.xarr.shape) or not all(spectrum1.xarr == spectrum2.xarr):
spectrum2 = interpolation.interp(spectrum2, spectrum1)
data1 = spectrum1.data
data2 = spectrum2.data
xcorr = np.correlate(data1, data2, mode='same')
# very simple propagation of error
# each element is multiplied, multiplicative error is given such that (sigma_xy/xy)**2 = (sigma_x/x)**2 + (sigma_y/y)**2
# error = (np.correlate( (spectrum1.error/spectrum1.data)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same') +
# np.correlate( (spectrum2.error/spectrum2.data)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same'))**0.5 * xcorr
# That approach sucks - what if data == 0?
#
# this might be more correct: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4069v1.pdf eqn 4
# but it doesn't quite fit my naive expectations so:
error = (np.correlate( (spectrum1.error)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same') +
np.correlate( (spectrum2.error)**2 , np.ones(xcorr.shape), mode='same'))**0.5
xarr = spectrum1.xarr
xrange = xarr.max()-xarr.min()
xmin = -xrange/2.
xmax = xrange/2.
offset_values = np.linspace(xmin, xmax, len(xarr))
offset_xarr = units_module.SpectroscopicAxis(offset_values, unit=xarr.unit)
header = headers.intersection(spectrum1.header, spectrum2.header)
header.update('CRPIX1',1)
try:
header.update('CRVAL1',xmin)
except ValueError:
header.update('CRVAL1',xmin.tolist())
header.update('CDELT1',offset_xarr.cdelt())
return classes.XCorrSpectrum(xarr=offset_xarr, data=xcorr, header=header, error=error)
def __init__(self,
speclist,
xtype='frequency',
xarr=None,
force=False,
**kwargs):
if xarr is None:
self.xarr = speclist[0].xarr
else:
self.xarr = xarr
self.units = speclist[0].units
self.header = speclist[0].header
self.parse_header(self.header)
for spec in speclist:
if not isinstance(spec, Spectrum):
raise TypeError(
"Must create an ObsBlock with a list of spectra.")
if not np.array_equal(spec.xarr, self.xarr):
if not force:
raise ValueError("Mismatch between X axes in ObsBlock")
if spec.units != self.units:
raise ValueError("Mismatched units")
if force:
self.speclist = [
interpolation.interp(spec, self) for spec in speclist
]
else:
self.speclist = speclist
self.nobs = len(self.speclist)
# Create a 2-dimensional array of the data
self.data = np.array([sp.data
for sp in self.speclist]).swapaxes(0,
1).squeeze()
self.error = np.array([sp.error
for sp in self.speclist]).swapaxes(0,
1).squeeze()
self.plotter = plotters.Plotter(self)
self._register_fitters()
self.specfit = fitters.Specfit(self, Registry=self.Registry)
self.baseline = baseline.Baseline(self)
def folded_cpl_evolution(
energy,
time,
peak_flux,
ep_start,
ep_tau,
alpha,
trise,
tdecay,
emin,
emax,
response,
z,
):
return interp(response[0], response[1], energy) * cpl_evolution(
energy, time, peak_flux, ep_start, ep_tau, alpha, trise, tdecay, emin,
emax, z)
def euler_eq_residual(a_plus, params_eer):
"""
Returns the difference between the LHS and RHS of the Euler Equation.
*Input
- a_plus : current savings
*Output
- Returns euler equation residual
"""
# a. Initialize
a, z, pol_sav_old, i_z, r, w, beta, sigma, pi, grid_z, grid_a = params_eer
Nz = len(grid_z)
avg_marg_u_plus = 0
# b. current consumption
c = (1 + r) * a + w * z - a_plus
# c. expected marginal utility from consumption next period
for i_zz in prange(Nz):
# i. consumption next period
c_plus = (1 + r) * a_plus + w * grid_z[i_zz] - interp(
grid_a, pol_sav_old[i_zz, :], a_plus)
# ii. marginal utility next period
marg_u_plus = u_prime(c_plus, sigma)
# iii. calculate expected marginal utility
weight = pi[i_z, i_zz]
avg_marg_u_plus += weight * marg_u_plus
# d. RHS of the euler equation
ee_rhs = (1 + r) * beta * avg_marg_u_plus
return u_prime(c, sigma) - ee_rhs
def household_opt_givenLoc(price_vector, individual_attributes, gridded_city_index, location_t1, migration_prop, iceberg_prop):
util_data_givenLoc, Q_data_givenLoc, tau_pts_givenLoc, tau_bounds = household_generate_interps_givenLoc(price_vector, individual_attributes, gridded_city_index, location_t1, migration_prop, iceberg_prop)
# Now I will do the interpolation that has bothered me since
grid_tau_a, grid_tau_b, grid_tau_c, grid_tau_d, grid_tau_e = tau_pts_givenLoc
q_func = lambda x: interp(grid_tau_a, grid_tau_b, grid_tau_c, grid_tau_d, grid_tau_e, Q_data_givenLoc, x)
x0 =np.zeros(5) ## Set to 5 for number of choice cities
# Set bounds for investments
tau_lower_bound, tau_upper_bound = tau_bounds
tau_bounds_array = np.array([tau_lower_bound, tau_upper_bound]).T
tauQgrid_args = (grid_tau_a, grid_tau_b, grid_tau_c, grid_tau_d, grid_tau_e, util_data_givenLoc)
util_optimizer = scipy.optimize.minimize(utility_objective_givenLoc, x0, args=tauQgrid_args)
# util_optimizer = nelder_mead(utility_objective_givenLoc, x0, bounds=tau_bounds_array, args=tauQgrid_args)
OPTIMAL_utility_givenLoc, OPTIMAL_tau_adj_t1_givenLoc = util_optimizer.fun, util_optimizer.x
# calculate the optimal q calculated via interpolation
OPTIMAL_q = q_func(OPTIMAL_tau_adj_t1_givenLoc)
# change optimal tau_t1 from 5 into proper length, filling the non-gridded cities tau as 0
OPTIMAL_tau_citylen_t1_givenLoc = np.zeros(city_count)
place_hold_counter = 0
for city_index in gridded_city_index:
OPTIMAL_tau_citylen_t1_givenLoc[city_index] = OPTIMAL_tau_adj_t1_givenLoc[place_hold_counter]
place_hold_counter += 1
# calculate the optimal consumption
OPTIMAL_investment_grid = np.array(list(OPTIMAL_tau_citylen_t1_givenLoc) + [OPTIMAL_q])
OPTIMAL_consumptions_givenLoc = household_calculate_feasible_givenLoc(price_vector, individual_attributes, OPTIMAL_investment_grid, location_t1, migration_prop, iceberg_prop)
return OPTIMAL_utility_givenLoc, OPTIMAL_consumptions_givenLoc
def simulate_MarkovChain(pol_cons, pol_sav, params_sim):
"""
Simulates markov chain for T periods for N households and calculates the euler equation error for all
individuals at each point in time. In addition, it checks the grid size by issuing a warning if 1% of
households are at the maximum value (right edge) of the grid. The algorithm is from Ch.7 in Heer and Maussner.
*Input
- pol_cons: consumption policy function
- pol_sav: savings policy function
- params_sim: model parameters
*Output
- sim_c: consumption profile
- sim_sav: savings (a') profile
- sim_z: Income shock profile.
- sim_m: cash-on-hand profile ((1+r)a + w*z)
- euler_error_sim : error when the euler equation equality holds
"""
# 1. initialization
a0, r, w, simN, simT, grid_z, grid_sav, sigma, beta, pi, shock_history = params_sim
sim_sav = np.zeros((simT, simN))
sim_c = np.zeros((simT, simN))
sim_m = np.zeros((simT, simN))
sim_z = np.zeros((simT, simN), np.float64)
sim_z_idx = np.zeros((simT, simN), np.int32)
edge = 0
euler_error_sim = np.empty((simT, simN)) * np.nan
# 2. helper functions
# savings policy function interpolant
polsav_interp = lambda a, z: interp(grid_sav, pol_sav[z, :], a)
# marginal utility
u_prime = lambda c: c**(-sigma)
#inverse marginal utility
u_prime_inv = lambda x: x**(-1 / sigma)
# 3. simulate markov chain
for t in range(simT): #time
for i in prange(simN): #individual hh
# a. states
if t == 0:
a_lag = a0[i]
else:
a_lag = sim_sav[t - 1, i]
# b. shock realization.
sim_z_idx[t, i] = shock_history[t, i]
sim_z[t, i] = grid_z[sim_z_idx[t, i]]
# c. income
y = w * sim_z[t, i]
# d. cash-on-hand path
sim_m[t, i] = (1 + r) * a_lag + y
# e. savings path
sim_sav[t, i] = polsav_interp(a_lag, sim_z_idx[t, i])
if sim_sav[t, i] < grid_sav[0]:
sim_sav[t, i] = grid_sav[0] #ensure constraint binds
# f. consumption path
sim_c[t, i] = sim_m[t, i] - sim_sav[t, i]
# g. error evaluation
check_out = False
if sim_sav[t, i] == pol_sav[sim_z_idx[t, i], -1]:
edge = edge + 1
check_out = True
constrained = False
if sim_sav[t, i] == grid_sav[0]:
constrained = True
if sim_c[t, i] < sim_m[
t, i] and constrained == False and check_out == False:
avg_marg_c_plus = 0
for i_zz in range(len(grid_z)): #next period productivity
sav_int = polsav_interp(sim_sav[t, i], i_zz)
if sav_int < grid_sav[0]:
sav_int = grid_sav[0] #ensure constraint binds
c_plus = (1 + r) * sim_sav[
t, i] + w * grid_z[i_zz] - polsav_interp(
sim_sav[t, i], i_zz)
#expectation of marginal utility of consumption
avg_marg_c_plus += pi[sim_z_idx[t, i],
i_zz] * u_prime(c_plus)
#euler error
euler_error_sim[t, i] = np.abs(
1 - (u_prime_inv(beta *
(1 + r) * avg_marg_c_plus) / sim_c[t, i]))
# 4. transform euler eerror to log_10 and get max and average
euler_error_sim = np.log10(np.abs(euler_error_sim))
# 5. grid size evaluation
frac_outside = edge / grid_sav.size
if frac_outside > 0.01:
raise Exception('Increase grid size!')
return sim_c, sim_sav, sim_z, sim_m, euler_error_sim
def egm_algo(pol_cons_old, params_egm):
"""
Endogenous grid method to help solve the household problem.
*Input
- pol_cons_old: consumption policy function from previous iteration.
- params_egm: model parameters
*Output
- pol_cons: updated consumption policy function
- a_star: endogenous grid
"""
# a. initialize
r, w, beta, pi, grid_sav, grid_z, sigma, maxit, tol = params_egm
Nz = len(grid_z)
Ns = len(grid_sav)
c_tilde = np.zeros((Nz, Ns))
a_star = np.zeros((Nz, Ns))
pol_cons = np.zeros((Nz, Ns))
# b. helper functions
u_prime = lambda c: c**(-sigma)
u_prime_inv = lambda x: x**(-1 / sigma)
for i_z in range(Nz):
# c. find RHS of euler equation (step 3 in EGM algo)
avg_marg_u_plus = np.zeros(Ns)
for i_zz in range(Nz):
# i. future consumption
c_plus = pol_cons_old[i_zz, :]
# iii. future marginal utility
marg_u_plus = u_prime(c_plus)
# iv. average marginal utility
weight = pi[i_z, i_zz]
avg_marg_u_plus += weight * marg_u_plus
ee_rhs = (1 + r) * beta * avg_marg_u_plus
# d. find current consumption (step 4 EGM algo)
c_tilde[i_z, :] = u_prime_inv(ee_rhs)
# e. get the endogenous grid of the value of assets today (step 5 EGM algo)
a_star[i_z, :] = (c_tilde[i_z, :] + grid_sav - grid_z[i_z] * w) / (1 +
r)
# f. update new consumption policy guess on savings grid
for i_s, v_s in enumerate(grid_sav):
if v_s <= a_star[
i_z,
0]: #borrowing constrained, outside the grid range on the left
pol_cons[i_z,
i_s] = (1 + r) * v_s + grid_sav[0] + grid_z[i_z] * w
elif v_s >= a_star[
i_z,
-1]: # , linearly extrapolate, outside the grid range on the right
pol_cons[i_z,
i_s] = c_tilde[i_z, -1] + (v_s - a_star[i_z, -1]) * (
c_tilde[i_z, -1] - c_tilde[i_z, -2]) / (
a_star[i_z, -1] - a_star[i_z, -2])
else: #linearly interpolate, inside the grid range
pol_cons[i_z, i_s] = interp(a_star[i_z, :], c_tilde[i_z, :],
v_s)
return pol_cons, a_star
def simulate_MarkovChain(
a0,
z0,
sim_ret,
sim_w,
simN,
simT,
grid_z,
grid_a,
pol_cons,
pol_sav,
pi,
sigma,
beta,
a_bar,
seed,
):
"""
Simulates markov chain for T periods for N households. Also checks
the grid size by ensuring that no more than 1% of households are at
the maximum value of the grid.
*Output
- sim_c: consumption profile
- sim_sav: savings (a') profile
- sim_z: income profile index, 0 for low state, 1 for high state
- sim_m: cash-on-hand profile ((1+r)a + w*z)
- euler_error : error when the euler equation equality holds
"""
# 1. initialization
np.random.seed(seed)
sim_sav = np.zeros((simT,simN))
sim_c = np.zeros((simT,simN))
sim_m = np.zeros((simT,simN))
sim_z = np.zeros((simT,simN), np.int32)
sim_z_idx = np.zeros((simT,simN), np.int32)
euler_error = np.empty((simT,simN)) * np.nan
edge = 0
# 2. helper functions
# savings policy function interpolant
polsav_interp = lambda a, z: interp(grid_a, pol_sav[z, :], a)
# marginal utility
u_prime = lambda c : c**(-sigma)
#inverse marginal utility
u_prime_inv = lambda x : x ** (-1/sigma)
# 3. simulate markov chain
for t in range(simT): #time
draw = np.linspace(0, 1, simN)
np.random.shuffle(draw)
for i in prange(simN): #individual
# a. states
if t == 0:
z_lag = np.int32(z0[i])
a_lag = a0[i]
else:
z_lag = sim_z[t-1,i]
a_lag = sim_sav[t-1,i]
# b. shock realization. 0 for low state. 1 for high state.
if draw[i] <= pi[z_lag, 1]: #state transition condition
sim_z[t,i] = 1
sim_z_idx[t,i] = 0 #state row index
else:
sim_z[t,i] = 0
sim_z_idx[t,i] = 1
# c. income
y = sim_w*grid_z[sim_z[t,i]]
# d. cash-on-hand path
sim_m[t, i] = (1 + sim_ret) * a_lag + y
# e. consumption path
sim_c[t,i] = sim_m[t, i] - polsav_interp(a_lag,sim_z[t,i])
# f. savings path
sim_sav[t,i] = sim_m[t, i] - sim_c[t,i]
# g. error evaluation
check_out=False
if sim_sav[t,i] == pol_sav[sim_z_idx[t,i],-1]:
edge = edge + 1
check_out=True
constrained=False
if sim_sav[t,i] == 0:
constrained=True
if sim_c[t,i] < sim_m[t,i] and constrained==False and check_out==False :
#all possible consumption choices tomorrow (2 in total)
c_plus = np.empty(len(grid_z))
for iz in range(len(grid_z)):
c_plus[iz] = (1 + sim_ret) * sim_sav[t,i] + sim_w*grid_z[iz] - polsav_interp(sim_sav[t,i],iz)
#expectation of marginal utility of consumption
avg_marg_c_plus = np.dot(pi[sim_z_idx[t,i],:], u_prime(c_plus))
#euler error
euler_error[t,i] = np.abs(1 - (u_prime_inv(beta*(1+sim_ret)*avg_marg_c_plus) / sim_c[t,i]))
# 4. grid size evaluation
frac_outside = edge/grid_a.size
if frac_outside > 0.01 :
raise Exception('Increase grid size!')
return sim_c, sim_sav, sim_z, sim_m, euler_error
get_coeffs(A, (1, 2))
##########
# interp #
##########
### 1d interpolation
from interpolation import interp
x = np.linspace(0, 1, 100)**2 # non-uniform points
y = np.linspace(0, 1, 100) # values
# interpolate at one point:
interp(x, y, 0.5)
# or at many points:
u = np.linspace(0, 1, 1000) # points
interp(x, y, u)
# one can iterate at low cost since the function is jitable:
from numba import njit
@njit
def vec_eval(u):
N = u.shape[0]
out = np.zeros(N)
for n in range(N):
out[n] = interp(x, y, u)
def vec_eval(u):
N = u.shape[0]
out = np.zeros(N)
for n in range(N):
out[n] = interp(x, y, u)
return out
axs[i].set_ylabel('Ln(P)')
j += 1
###################################################################################
print('done')
elif plotb == True:
#plt.scatter(np.log(pr[0]),np.log(pr[1]), label = j,s =3)
plt.rcParams.update({'font.size': 32})
#plt.loglog(pr[0],pr[1], label = j)#,s =1)
a = inter.interp(np.log(pr[0]), np.log(pr[1]))
plt.rcParams.update({'font.size': 32})
plt.scatter(a[0], a[1], s=1, c='black')
plt.scatter(np.log(pr[0]), np.log(pr[1]), s=100, label=j)
#plt.scatter(np.log(p2[0]),np.log(p2[1]), s =1, label = 'No scaling (a = 1)')
plt.xlabel('ln(Avalanche size s)')
plt.ylabel('ln(Probability of avalanche s)')
plt.title('Probabilities of avalanche s for different L')
def reindex_axis(self, values, axis=0, method="exact", repna=True, fill_value=np.nan, tol=TOLERANCE, use_pandas=None):
""" reindex an array along an axis
Input:
- values : array-like or Axis: new axis values
- axis : axis number or name
- method : "exact" (default), "nearest", "interp"
- repna: if False, raise error when an axis value is not present
otherwise just replace with NaN. Defaulf is True
- fill_value: value to use instead of missing data
- tol: re-index with a particular tolerance (can be longer)
- use_pandas, optional: bool : if True (the default), convert to pandas for re-indexing
If any special option (method, tol) is set or if modulo axes are present
or, of course, if pandas is not installed,
this option is set to False by default.
Output:
- DimArray
Examples:
---------
Basic reindexing: fill missing values with NaN
>>> a = da.DimArray([1,2,3],('x0', [1,2,3]))
>>> b = da.DimArray([3,4],('x0',[1,3]))
>>> b.reindex_axis([1,2,3])
dimarray: 2 non-null elements (1 null)
dimensions: 'x0'
0 / x0 (3): 1 to 3
array([ 3., nan, 4.])
Or replace with anything else, like -9999
>>> b.reindex_axis([1,2,3], fill_value=-9999)
dimarray: 3 non-null elements (0 null)
dimensions: 'x0'
0 / x0 (3): 1 to 3
array([ 3, -9999, 4])
"nearest" mode
>>> b.reindex_axis([0,1,2,3], method='nearest') # out-of-bound to NaN
dimarray: 3 non-null elements (1 null)
dimensions: 'x0'
0 / x0 (4): 0 to 3
array([ nan, 3., 3., 4.])
"interp" mode
>>> b.reindex_axis([0,1,2,3], method='interp') # out-of-bound to NaN
dimarray: 3 non-null elements (1 null)
dimensions: 'x0'
0 / x0 (4): 0 to 3
array([ nan, 3. , 3.5, 4. ])
"""
if isinstance(values, Axis):
newaxis = values
values = newaxis.values
axis = newaxis.name
axis_id = self.axes.get_idx(axis)
ax = self.axes[axis_id] # Axis object
axis_nm = ax.name
# do nothing if axis is same or only None element
if ax.values[0] is None or np.all(values == ax.values):
return self
# check whether pandas can be used for re-indexing
if use_pandas is None:
use_pandas = get_option("optim.use_pandas")
# ...any special option activated?
if (
method != "exact" or tol is not None or ax.tol is not None or ax.modulo is not None or self.ndim > 4
): # pandas defined up to 4-D
use_pandas = False
# ...is pandas installed?
try:
import pandas
except ImportError:
use_pandas = False
# re-index using pandas
if use_pandas:
pandasobj = self.to_pandas()
newpandas = pandasobj.reindex_axis(values, axis=axis_id, fill_value=fill_value)
newobj = self.from_pandas(newpandas) # use class method from_pandas
newobj._metadata = self._metadata # add metadata back
newobj.axes[axis_id].name = axis_nm # give back original name
# indices along which to sample
elif method == "exact":
newobj = take_na(self, values, axis=axis, repna=repna, fill_value=fill_value)
elif method in ("nearest", "interp"):
from interpolation import interp
newobj = interp(self, values, axis=axis, method=method, repna=repna)
else:
raise ValueError("invalid reindex_axis method: " + repr(method))
# assert np.all((np.isnan(ax0.values) | (ax0.values == ax1.values))), "pb when reindexing"
return newobj
def simulate_MonteCarlo(a0, z0, sim_ret, sim_w, simN, simT, grid_z, grid_a,
pol_cons, pol_sav, pi, shock_matrix):
"""
Monte Carlo simulation for T periods for N households. Also checks
the grid size by ensuring that no more than 1% of households are at
the maximum value of the grid.
*Output
- sim_k : aggregate capital (total savings in previous period)
- sim_sav: current savings (a') profile
- sim_z: income profile
- sim_c: consumption profile
- sim_m: cash-on-hand profile ((1+r)a + w*z)
"""
# 1. initialization
sim_sav = np.zeros(simN)
sim_c = np.zeros(simN)
sim_m = np.zeros(simN)
sim_z = np.zeros(simN, np.float64)
sim_z_idx = np.zeros(simN, np.int32)
sim_k = np.zeros(simT)
edge = 0
# 2. savings policy function interpolant
polsav_interp = lambda a, z: interp(grid_a, pol_sav[z, :], a)
# 3. simulate markov chain
for t in range(simT): #time
#calculate cross-sectional moments
if t <= 0:
sim_k[t] = np.mean(a0)
else:
sim_k[t] = np.mean(sim_sav)
for i in prange(simN): #individual
# a. states
if t == 0:
a_lag = a0[i]
else:
a_lag = sim_sav[i]
# b. shock realization
sim_z_idx[i] = shock_matrix[t, i]
sim_z[i] = grid_z[sim_z_idx[i]]
# c. income
y = sim_w[t] * sim_z[i]
# d. cash-on-hand
sim_m[i] = (1 + sim_ret[t]) * a_lag + y
# e. consumption path
sim_c[i] = sim_m[i] - polsav_interp(a_lag, sim_z_idx[i])
if sim_c[i] == pol_cons[sim_z_idx[i], -1]:
edge = edge + 1
# f. savings path
sim_sav[i] = sim_m[i] - sim_c[i]
# 4. grid size evaluation
frac_outside = edge / grid_a.size
if frac_outside > 0.01:
print('\nIncrease grid size!')
return sim_k, sim_sav, sim_z, sim_c, sim_m
def simulate_MonteCarlo(pol_cons, pol_sav, r, w, params_sim):
"""
Monte Carlo simulation for T periods for N households. Also checks
the grid size by ensuring that no more than 1% of households are at
the maximum value of the grid.
*Output
- sim_k : aggregate capital (total savings in previous period)
- sim_sav: current savings (a') profile
- sim_z: income profile index, 0 for low state, 1 for high state
- sim_c: consumption profile
- sim_m: cash-on-hand profile ((1+r)a + w*z)
"""
# a. initialization
a0, simN, simT, grid_z, grid_a, sigma, beta, pi, shock_history = params_sim
sim_sav = np.zeros(simN)
sim_c = np.zeros(simN)
sim_m = np.zeros(simN)
sim_z = np.zeros(simN)
sim_z_idx = np.zeros(simN, np.int32)
sim_k = np.zeros(simT)
euler_error_sim = np.empty(simN) * np.nan
edge = 0
# b. helper functions
# savings policy function interpolant
polsav_interp = lambda a, z: interp(grid_a, pol_sav[z, :], a)
# marginal utility
u_prime = lambda c: c**(-sigma)
#inverse marginal utility
u_prime_inv = lambda x: x**(-1 / sigma)
# c. simulate markov chain
for t in range(simT): #time
#calculate cross-sectional moments for agg. capital
if t <= 0:
sim_k[t] = np.mean(a0)
else:
sim_k[t] = np.mean(sim_sav)
for i in prange(simN): #individual
# i. states
if t == 0:
a_lag = a0[i]
else:
a_lag = sim_sav[i]
# ii. shock realization.
sim_z_idx[i] = shock_history[t, i]
sim_z[i] = grid_z[sim_z_idx[i]]
# iii. income
y = w * sim_z[i]
# iv. cash-on-hand
sim_m[i] = (1 + r) * a_lag + y
# v. savings path
sim_sav[i] = polsav_interp(a_lag, sim_z_idx[i])
if sim_sav[i] < grid_a[0]:
sim_sav[i] = grid_a[0] #ensure constraint binds
# vi. consumption path
sim_c[i] = sim_m[i] - sim_sav[i]
# vii. error evaluation
check_out = False
if sim_sav[i] >= pol_sav[sim_z_idx[i], -1]:
edge = edge + 1
check_out = True
constrained = False
if sim_sav[i] == grid_a[0]:
constrained = True
if sim_c[i] < sim_m[
i] and constrained == False and check_out == False:
avg_marg_c_plus = 0
for i_zz in range(len(grid_z)): #next period productivity
sav_int = polsav_interp(sim_sav[i], i_zz)
if sav_int < grid_a[0]:
sav_int = grid_a[0] #ensure constraint binds
c_plus = (1 + r) * sim_sav[i] + w * grid_z[i_zz] - sav_int
#expectation of marginal utility of consumption
avg_marg_c_plus += pi[sim_z_idx[i], i_zz] * u_prime(c_plus)
#euler error
euler_error_sim[i] = 1 - (
u_prime_inv(beta * (1 + r) * avg_marg_c_plus) / sim_c[i])
# d. transform euler eerror to log_10 and get max and average
euler_error_sim = np.log10(np.abs(euler_error_sim))
# e. grid size evaluation
frac_outside = edge / grid_a.size
if frac_outside > 0.01:
raise Exception('Increase grid size!')
return sim_k, sim_sav, sim_z, sim_c, sim_m, euler_error_sim
def eigen_stationary_density(self):
"""
Solve for the exact stationary density. First constructs the Nz*Ns by Nz*Ns transition matrix Q(a',z'; a,z)
from state (a,z) to (a',z'). Then obtains the eigenvector associated with the unique eigenvalue equal to 1.
This eigenvector (renormalized so that it sums to one) is the unique stationary density function.
Note: About 99% of the computation time is spend on the eigenvalue calculation. For now there is no
way to speed this function up as numba only supports np.linalg.eig() when there is no domain change
(ex. real numbers to real numbers). Here there is a domain change as some eigenvalues and eigenvector
elements are complex.
*Output
* stationary_pdf: stationary density function
* Q: transition matrix
"""
# a. initialize transition matrix
Q = np.zeros((self.Nz * self.Na_fine, self.Nz * self.Na_fine))
# b. interpolate and construct transition matrix
for i_z in range(self.Nz): #current productivity
for i_a, a0 in enumerate(self.grid_a_fine):
# i. interpolate
a_intp = interp(self.grid_a, self.pol_sav[i_z, :], a0)
#take the grid index to the right. a_intp lies between grid_a_fine[j-1] and grid_a_fine[j].
j = np.sum(self.grid_a_fine <= a_intp)
#less than or equal to lowest grid value
if a_intp <= self.grid_a_fine[0]:
p = 0
#more than or equal to greatest grid value
elif a_intp >= self.grid_a_fine[-1]:
p = 1
j = j - 1 #since right index is outside the grid make it the max index
#inside grid
else:
p = (a_intp - self.grid_a_fine[j - 1]) / (
self.grid_a_fine[j] - self.grid_a_fine[j - 1])
# ii. transition matrix
na = i_z * self.Na_fine #minimum row index
for i_zz in range(self.Nz): #next productivity state
ma = i_zz * self.Na_fine #minimum column index
Q[na + i_a, ma + j] = p * self.pi[i_z, i_zz]
Q[na + i_a, ma + j - 1] = (1.0 - p) * self.pi[i_z, i_zz]
# iii. ensure that the rows sum up to 1
assert np.allclose(Q.sum(axis=1), np.ones(
self.Nz *
self.Na_fine)), "Transition matrix error: Rows do not sum to 1"
# c. get the eigenvector
eigen_val, eigen_vec = np.linalg.eig(
Q.T) #transpose Q for eig function.
# i. find column index for eigen value equal to 1
idx = np.argmin(np.abs(eigen_val - 1.0))
eigen_vec_stat = np.copy(eigen_vec[:, idx])
# ii. ensure complex arguments of any complex numbers are small and convert to real numbers
if np.max(np.abs(np.imag(eigen_vec_stat))) < 1e-6:
eigen_vec_stat = np.real(
eigen_vec_stat
) # drop the complex argument of any complex numbers.
else:
raise Exception(
"Stationary eigenvector error: Maximum complex argument greater than 0.000001. Use a different distribution solution method."
)
# d. obtain stationary density from stationary eigenvector
# i. reshape
stationary_pdf = eigen_vec_stat.reshape(self.Nz, self.Na_fine)
# ii. stationary distribution by percent
stationary_pdf = stationary_pdf / np.sum(np.sum(stationary_pdf,
axis=0))
return stationary_pdf, Q
def discrete_stationary_density(pol_sav, params_discrete):
"""
Discrete approximation of the density function. Approximates the stationary joint density through forward
iteration and linear interpolation over a discretized state space. By default the code uses a finer grid than
the one in the solution but one could use the same grid here. The algorithm is from Ch.7 in Heer and Maussner.
*Input
- pol_sav: savings policy function
- params_discrete: model parameters
*Output
- stationary_pdf: joint stationary density function
- it: number of iterations
"""
# a. initialize
grid_a, grid_a_fine, Nz, pi, pi_stat, maxit, tol = params_discrete
Na_fine = len(grid_a_fine)
# initial guess uniform distribution
stationary_pdf_old = np.ones((Na_fine, Nz)) / Na_fine
stationary_pdf_old = stationary_pdf_old * np.transpose(pi_stat)
stationary_pdf_old = stationary_pdf_old.T
# b. fixed point iteration
for it in range(maxit): # iteration
stationary_pdf = np.zeros((Nz, Na_fine)) # distribution in period t+1
for iz in range(Nz): # iteration over productivity types in period t
for ia, a0 in enumerate(
grid_a_fine): # iteration over assets in period t
# i. interpolate
a_intp = interp(grid_a, pol_sav[iz, :],
a0) # linear interpolation for a'(z, a)
# ii. obtain distribution in period t+1
#left edge of the grid
if a_intp <= grid_a_fine[0]:
for izz in range(Nz):
stationary_pdf[izz, 0] = stationary_pdf[
izz, 0] + stationary_pdf_old[iz, ia] * pi[iz, izz]
#right edge of the grid
elif a_intp >= grid_a_fine[-1]:
for izz in range(Nz):
stationary_pdf[izz, -1] = stationary_pdf[
izz, -1] + stationary_pdf_old[iz, ia] * pi[iz, izz]
#inside the grid range, linearly interpolate
else:
j = np.sum(
grid_a_fine <= a_intp
) # a_intp lies between grid_a_fine[j-1] and grid_a_fine[j]
p0 = (a_intp - grid_a_fine[j - 1]) / (grid_a_fine[j] -
grid_a_fine[j - 1])
for izz in range(Nz):
stationary_pdf[izz, j] = stationary_pdf[
izz,
j] + p0 * stationary_pdf_old[iz, ia] * pi[iz, izz]
stationary_pdf[izz, j - 1] = stationary_pdf[
izz, j - 1] + (1 - p0) * stationary_pdf_old[
iz, ia] * pi[iz, izz]
#stationary distribution by percent
stationary_pdf = stationary_pdf / np.sum(np.sum(stationary_pdf,
axis=0))
# iii. calculate supremum norm
dist = np.abs(stationary_pdf - stationary_pdf_old).max()
if dist < tol:
break
else:
stationary_pdf_old = np.copy(stationary_pdf)
return stationary_pdf, it
def __call__(self, v):
return interp(self._x, self._y, v)
def F(K, S_bar, tol):
"""
Function that gives first stage profits - cost of
generation capital for given level of storage capital
and generation capital
Parameters
----------
K : float
generation capital
S_bar: float
storage capacity
tol: float
tolerance for the time iteration fp
Returns
----------
Pi_hat - r_k: float
net present discounted value of profits
"""
print(K)
# initial guess of value function is pricing function saved from
# previous evaluation of G operator
v_init = config.rho_global_old
# set-up grid based on value of S_nar
config.grid = np.linspace(grid_min_s, S_bar, grid_size)
# calculate pricing function
rho_star = TC_star(v_init, K, S_bar, tol, config.grid)
config.rho_global_old = rho_star
T = np.int(TS_length)
s = np.zeros(T)
priceT = np.zeros(T)
d = np.zeros(T)
gen = np.zeros(T)
integrand = np.zeros(T)
# supply and shocks for simulation
shock_index = np.arange(len(shock_X))
shocks = np.random.choice(shock_index, T, p=P)
# generate sequence of price and demand
s[0] = S_bar / 2
e = np.zeros(T)
z = np.zeros(T)
for i in range(T):
zi = shock_X[shocks[i], 0]
ei = shock_X[shocks[i], 1]
priceT[i] = interp(config.grid, rho_star[shocks[i]], s[i])
d[i] = p_inv(ei, priceT[i], D_bar)
gen[i] = zi * K
if i < T - 1:
s[i + 1] = np.max(
[grid_min_s, (1 - delta_storage) * s[i] - d[i] + gen[i]])
s[i + 1] = np.min([s[i + 1], S_bar])
integrand[i] = priceT[i] * zi
# integrate to expected price
Eprice = np.mean(integrand)
err = (1 / (1 - beta)) * Eprice - r_k
print("Error for operator F for generatot value %s operator is %s" %
(K, err))
return (1 / (1 - beta)) * Eprice - r_k