from pyevolve import GAllele
import Oger
import pandas as pd
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
def identity_transformer(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
"""This prediction model assumes tomorrow will be the same as today."""
return data["Load"][-prediction_steps*2:-prediction_steps].tshift(prediction_steps)
def null_transformer(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
"""This prediction model assumes tomorrow will be entirely flat."""
return pd.TimeSeries(data=data["Load"][:-prediction_steps].mean(),
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class IdentityModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of a system without transformer."""
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return identity_transformer
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(IdentityModelCreator)
import arima
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class ARModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
'''Sets up for evolution of the ARIMA model.'''
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1, 8*24, 5))
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 0, 8*24, 5))
self._loci_list += ['AR_order']
self._loci_list += ['EXO_order']
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.ar_ga
class ARBitmapModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
'''Sets up for evolution of the ARIMA model.'''
self._alleles.add(pu.make_bitmap_gene(24*8))
self._alleles.add(pu.make_bitmap_gene(24*8))
self._loci_list += ['AR_lags', 'EXO_lags']
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.bitmapped_ar_ga
if __name__ == '__main__':
load_prediction.run(ARModelCreator)
#load_prediction.run(ARBitmapModelCreator())
import arima
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class DSHWModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the DSHW model."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # alpha
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # beta
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # gamma
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # omega
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # phi
self._loci_list += ['alpha', 'beta', 'gamma', 'omega', 'phi']
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.dshw
class AutoDSHWModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the DSHW model."""
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.auto_dshw
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(DSHWModelCreator)
#load_prediction.run(AutoDSHWModelCreator())
class WaveletCBRModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def get_dataset(self, options):
"""This function should create the an instance of a dataset class
according to the selected model and user options."""
if options.bc_data:
return RTreeBCHydroDataset(options, 31)
elif options.total_load:
return RTreeTotalDataset(options, 31)
else:
return RTreeDataset(options, 31)
def _add_transform_genes(self):
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 2, 11, 1)) # Dimension
# self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, 0.05)) # Weight
# self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1024, 2048, 50)) # Boolean mask
self._loci_list += ['dimension'] #, 'weight', 'mask',
if not self._options.no_cleaning:
#wavelet.set_local_cleaning_func(self._get_cleansing_function(options), model)
raise NotImplementedError(
"CBR with cleaning not updated to work with pipeline model for cleaning."
)
def _get_transform(self):
return wavelet.retrieve
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(WaveletCBRModelCreator)
"""Evolve a load predictor with BSpline data cleansing and AR/ARIMA predictor."""
from pyevolve import GAllele
import Oger
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import arima
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
import load_prediction_ar
class ARHourByHourModelCreator(load_prediction_ar.ARModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.hourbyhour_ar_ga
class ARHourByHourBitmapModelCreator(load_prediction_ar.ARBitmapModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.bitmapped_hourbyhour_ar_ga
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(ARHourByHourModelCreator)
#load_prediction.run(ARHourByHourBitmapModelCreator())
from model import Model
import wavelet
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class WaveletHourByHourModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""This is where the models are defined. The models are passed to the
GA engine for evolution of the optimal set of parameters. Afterwards,
the models are tested, and performance is measured."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1, 10, 1)) # Scale
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(
1, [2])) # Aj, in the paper 2 gives best results.
gene = pu.make_choice_gene(1, [i for i in self._hindsight_days])
self._alleles.add(gene, weight=1)
if options.no_cleaning:
loci = sg.utils.Enum('scale', 'Aj')
else:
loci = sg.utils.Enum('scale', 'Aj', 't_smooth', 'l_smooth',
't_zscore', 'l_zscore')
def _get_transform(self):
return wavelet.hourbyhour_multiscale_prediction_ga
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(WaveletHourByHourModelCreator)
import load_prediction
import taohong
class VanillaModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return taohong.vanilla
if __name__ == '__main__':
load_prediction.run(VanillaModelCreator)
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import load_prediction
def hourly_average(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
assert (prediction_steps == 24)
start = -prediction_steps - genome[loci.hindsight]
end = -prediction_steps
avg_data = pd.DataFrame({"Load": data["Load"][start:end].copy()})
avg_data["Hour of day"] = [i.hour for i in avg_data.index]
means = avg_data.groupby(["Hour of day"]).mean()["Load"]
return pd.TimeSeries(data=means.values,
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class HourlyAverageModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the ARIMA model."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(
1, 0, 1, 0.1)) # Dummy to make 1D crossover work in Pyevolve
self._loci_list += ['crossover_dummy']
def _get_transform(self):
return hourly_average
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(HourlyAverageModelCreator)
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
def identity_transformer(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
"""This prediction model assumes tomorrow will be the same as today."""
return data["Load"][-prediction_steps *
2:-prediction_steps].tshift(prediction_steps)
def null_transformer(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
"""This prediction model assumes tomorrow will be entirely flat."""
return pd.TimeSeries(data=data["Load"][:-prediction_steps].mean(),
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class IdentityModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of a system without transformer."""
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return identity_transformer
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(IdentityModelCreator)
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class ESNModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the ESN model."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 10, 500, 25), weight=1) # Network size
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, 0.05), weight=1) # Leak rate
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0.1, 0.75, 0.05), weight=1) # Input scaling
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, 0.05), weight=1) # Bias scaling
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0.5, 2, 0.05), weight=1) # Spectral radius
# We don't want too many seeds per evolutions, but we don't want to
# always evolve on the same 5 networks either:
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(
1, np.random.random_integers(0, 2**16, 5)), weight=1) # Seed
# Grid optimization showed that for a training length of 336, with
# other params set based on previous gridopts and operating on the
# total dataset rather than single AMS'es, optimal ridge was ~5. Scaled
# thus 5/336=0.015.
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(
1, [0.0001/self._max_hindsight_hours]), weight=1) # Scaled ridge
self._loci_list += ['size', 'leak', 'in_scale',
'bias_scale', 'spectral', 'seed', 'ridge' ]
def _get_transform(self):
return esn.feedback_with_external_input
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(ESNModelCreator)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 0, 1e6, 100))
def _lambda_mapper(self, lc_gene_val):
return (np.power(10, lc_gene_val) - 1) / 1e3
class RegularizedVanillaModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
load_prediction.ModelCreator.__init__(self, *args, **kwargs)
self._warning_printed = False
def _add_transform_genes(self):
'''Sets up for evolution of the regularized vanilla benchmark model.'''
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 0, 1e6, 100))
self._loci_list += ['lambda_cont']
def _transform(self, data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
if not self._warning_printed:
print 'Hindsight genome ignored, using all available data in Vanilla model.'
self._warning_printed = True
svp = regul_ar.VanillaVectorPredictor(data[:-prediction_steps])
svp.estimate(lambda_cont=genome[loci.lambda_cont])
return svp.predict(data[-prediction_steps:])
def _get_transform(self):
return functools.partial(type(self)._transform, self)
if __name__ == '__main__':
load_prediction.run(LogRegularizedVectorARModelCreator)
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class DSHWModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the DSHW model."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # alpha
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # beta
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # gamma
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # omega
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, .1), weight=1) # phi
self._loci_list += ['alpha', 'beta', 'gamma', 'omega', 'phi']
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.dshw
class AutoDSHWModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the DSHW model."""
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.auto_dshw
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(DSHWModelCreator)
#load_prediction.run(AutoDSHWModelCreator())
"""Evolve a load predictor with BSpline data cleansing and predictor as daily or 24-hour averages."""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import load_prediction
import load_prediction_averagehourly as lpah
def daily_average(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
start = -prediction_steps - genome[loci.hindsight]
end = -prediction_steps
return pd.TimeSeries(data=data["Load"][start:end].mean(),
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class DailyAverageModelCreator(lpah.HourlyAverageModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return daily_average
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(DailyAverageModelCreator)
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import load_prediction
def hourly_average(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
assert(prediction_steps == 24)
start = -prediction_steps - genome[loci.hindsight]
end = -prediction_steps
avg_data = pd.DataFrame({"Load": data["Load"][start:end].copy()})
avg_data["Hour of day"] = [i.hour for i in avg_data.index]
means = avg_data.groupby(["Hour of day"]).mean()["Load"]
return pd.TimeSeries(data=means.values,
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class HourlyAverageModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the ARIMA model."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_real_gene(1, 0, 1, 0.1)) # Dummy to make 1D crossover work in Pyevolve
self._loci_list += ['crossover_dummy']
def _get_transform(self):
return hourly_average
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(HourlyAverageModelCreator)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 0, 1e6, 100))
def _lambda_mapper(self, lc_gene_val):
return (np.power(10, lc_gene_val) - 1) / 1e3
class RegularizedVanillaModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
load_prediction.ModelCreator.__init__(self, *args, **kwargs)
self._warning_printed = False
def _add_transform_genes(self):
'''Sets up for evolution of the regularized vanilla benchmark model.'''
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 0, 1e6, 100))
self._loci_list += ['lambda_cont']
def _transform(self, data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
if not self._warning_printed:
print 'Hindsight genome ignored, using all available data in Vanilla model.'
self._warning_printed = True
svp = regul_ar.VanillaVectorPredictor(data[:-prediction_steps])
svp.estimate(lambda_cont=genome[loci.lambda_cont])
return svp.predict(data[-prediction_steps:])
def _get_transform(self):
return functools.partial(type(self)._transform, self)
if __name__ == '__main__':
load_prediction.run(LogRegularizedVectorARModelCreator)
"""Evolve a load predictor with BSpline data cleansing and predictor as daily or 24-hour averages."""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import load_prediction
import load_prediction_averagehourly as lpah
def daily_average(data, genome, loci, prediction_steps):
start = -prediction_steps - genome[loci.hindsight]
end = -prediction_steps
return pd.TimeSeries(data=data["Load"][start:end].mean(),
index=data.index[-prediction_steps:])
class DailyAverageModelCreator(lpah.HourlyAverageModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return daily_average
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(DailyAverageModelCreator)
from pyevolve import GAllele
import Oger
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import wavelet
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class WaveletModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""This is where the models are defined. The models are passed to the
GA engine for evolution of the optimal set of parameters. Afterwards,
the models are tested, and performance is measured."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1, 10, 1)) # Scale
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(1, [2])) # Aj, in the paper 2 gives best results.
self._loci_list += ['scale', 'Aj']
def _get_transform(self):
#return wavelet.linear_prediction
#return wavelet.linear_vector
#return wavelet.vector_multiscale_prediction
#return wavelet.iterative_multiscale_prediction
return wavelet.multiscale_prediction
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(WaveletModelCreator)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(1,
[0, 1, 2])) # 'I' backshift (d)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(1,
[1, 2, 3])) # 'MA' backshift (q)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1, 10,
1)) # Seasonal 'AR' backshift (p)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(
1, [0, 1, 2])) # Seasonal 'I' backshift (d)
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(
1, [1, 2, 3])) # Seasonal 'MA' backshift (q)
self._loci_list += [
'AR_order', 'I_order', 'MA_order', 'ssn_AR_order', 'ssn_I_order',
'ssn_MA_order'
]
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.seasonal_arima_with_weather
class AutoARIMAModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""Sets up for evolution of the ARIMA model."""
pass
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.auto_arima_with_weather
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(ARIMAModelCreator)
"""Evolve a load predictor with BSpline data cleansing and AR/ARIMA predictor."""
from pyevolve import GAllele
import Oger
import sg.utils
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import arima
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
import load_prediction_ar
class ARHourByHourModelCreator(load_prediction_ar.ARModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.hourbyhour_ar_ga
class ARHourByHourBitmapModelCreator(load_prediction_ar.ARBitmapModelCreator):
def _get_transform(self):
return arima.bitmapped_hourbyhour_ar_ga
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(ARHourByHourModelCreator)
#load_prediction.run(ARHourByHourBitmapModelCreator())
import sg.utils.pyevolve_utils as pu
from model import Model
import wavelet
import load_cleansing
import load_prediction
class WaveletHourByHourModelCreator(load_prediction.ModelCreator):
def _add_transform_genes(self):
"""This is where the models are defined. The models are passed to the
GA engine for evolution of the optimal set of parameters. Afterwards,
the models are tested, and performance is measured."""
self._alleles.add(pu.make_int_gene(1, 1, 10, 1)) # Scale
self._alleles.add(pu.make_choice_gene(1, [2])) # Aj, in the paper 2 gives best results.
gene = pu.make_choice_gene(1, [i for i in self._hindsight_days])
self._alleles.add(gene, weight=1)
if options.no_cleaning:
loci = sg.utils.Enum('scale', 'Aj')
else:
loci = sg.utils.Enum('scale', 'Aj', 't_smooth',
'l_smooth', 't_zscore', 'l_zscore')
def _get_transform(self):
return wavelet.hourbyhour_multiscale_prediction_ga
if __name__ == "__main__":
load_prediction.run(WaveletHourByHourModelCreator)
