def ensemble_demo():
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_ens_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 7, 26))
disp_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 7, 20))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_ens_start - t_start) / dt))
n_fc_ens = 30
n_disp = int(round(t_fc_ens_start - disp_start) / dt) + n_fc_ens + 24 * 7
obs_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1)
fc_ens_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_fc_ens_start, dt, n_fc_ens)
display_time_axis = Timeaxis(disp_start, dt, n_disp)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(obs_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(
PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)),
q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(obs_time_axis, initial_state)
current_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, t_fc_ens_start, q_obs_m3s_ts)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(display_time_axis.total_period())
ens_repos = tistel.arome_ensemble_repository(tistel.grid_spec)
ptgsk_fc_ens = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKModel, ens_repos)
sims = ptgsk_fc_ens.create_ensembles(fc_ens_time_axis, t_fc_ens_start,
current_state)
for sim in sims:
sim.simulate()
plt.hold(1)
percentiles = [10, 25, 50, 75, 90]
plot_percentiles(sims, percentiles, obs=q_obs_m3s_ts)
plt.interactive(1)
plt.show()
def ensemble_demo():
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_ens_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 7, 26))
disp_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 7, 20))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_ens_start - t_start)/dt))
n_fc_ens = 30
n_disp = int(round(t_fc_ens_start - disp_start)/dt) + n_fc_ens + 24*7
obs_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1)
fc_ens_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_fc_ens_start, dt, n_fc_ens)
display_time_axis = Timeaxis(disp_start, dt, n_disp)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(obs_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)), q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(obs_time_axis, initial_state)
current_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, t_fc_ens_start, q_obs_m3s_ts)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(display_time_axis.total_period())
ens_repos = tistel.arome_ensemble_repository(tistel.grid_spec)
ptgsk_fc_ens = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKModel, ens_repos)
sims = ptgsk_fc_ens.create_ensembles(fc_ens_time_axis, t_fc_ens_start, current_state)
for sim in sims:
sim.simulate()
plt.hold(1)
percentiles = [10, 25, 50, 75, 90]
plot_percentiles(sims, percentiles, obs=q_obs_m3s_ts)
#plt.interactive(1)
plt.show()
def continuous_calibration():
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 10, 1))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_start - t_start)/dt))
obs_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(obs_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)), q_obs_m3s_ts)
num_opt_days = 30
# Step forward num_opt_days days and store the state for each day:
recal_start = t_start + deltahours(num_opt_days*24)
t = t_start
state = initial_state
opt_states = {t: state}
while t < recal_start:
ptgsk.run(Timeaxis(t, dt, 24), state)
t += deltahours(24)
state = ptgsk.reg_model_state
opt_states[t] = state
recal_stop = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 10, 30))
recal_stop = utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 5, 30))
curr_time = recal_start
q_obs_avg = TsTransform().to_average(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1, q_obs_m3s_ts)
target_spec = TargetSpecificationPts(q_obs_avg, IntVector([0]), 1.0, KLING_GUPTA)
target_spec_vec = TargetSpecificationVector([target_spec])
i = 0
times = []
values = []
p, p_min, p_max = construct_calibration_parameters(ptgsk)
while curr_time < recal_stop:
print(i)
i += 1
opt_start = curr_time - deltahours(24*num_opt_days)
opt_state = opt_states.pop(opt_start)
p = ptgsk.region_model.get_region_parameter()
p_opt = ptgsk.optimize(Timeaxis(opt_start, dt, 24*num_opt_days), opt_state, target_spec_vec,
p, p_min, p_max, tr_stop=1.0e-5)
ptgsk.region_model.set_region_parameter(p_opt)
corr_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, curr_time, q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(Timeaxis(curr_time, dt, 24), corr_state)
curr_time += deltahours(24)
opt_states[curr_time] = ptgsk.reg_model_state
discharge = ptgsk.region_model.statistics.discharge([0])
times.extend(discharge.time(i) for i in range(discharge.size()))
values.extend(list(np.array(discharge.v)))
plt.plot(utc_to_greg(times), values)
plot_results(None, q_obs=observed_tistel_discharge(UtcPeriod(recal_start, recal_stop)))
set_calendar_formatter(Calendar())
#plt.interactive(1)
plt.title("Continuously recalibrated discharge vs observed")
plt.xlabel("Time in UTC")
plt.ylabel(r"Discharge in $\mathbf{m^3s^{-1}}$", verticalalignment="top", rotation="horizontal")
plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(0, 1.1)
def continuous_calibration():
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 10, 1))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_start - t_start)/dt))
obs_time_axis = TimeAxisFixedDeltaT(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(obs_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)), q_obs_m3s_ts)
num_opt_days = 30
# Step forward num_opt_days days and store the state for each day:
recal_start = t_start + deltahours(num_opt_days*24)
t = t_start
state = initial_state
opt_states = {t: state}
while t < recal_start:
ptgsk.run(TimeAxisFixedDeltaT(t, dt, 24), state)
t += deltahours(24)
state = ptgsk.reg_model_state
opt_states[t] = state
recal_stop = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 10, 30))
recal_stop = utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 5, 30))
curr_time = recal_start
q_obs_avg = TsTransform().to_average(t_start, dt, n_obs + 1, q_obs_m3s_ts)
target_spec = TargetSpecificationPts(q_obs_avg, IntVector([0]), 1.0, KLING_GUPTA)
target_spec_vec = TargetSpecificationVector([target_spec])
i = 0
times = []
values = []
p, p_min, p_max = construct_calibration_parameters(ptgsk)
while curr_time < recal_stop:
print(i)
i += 1
opt_start = curr_time - deltahours(24*num_opt_days)
opt_state = opt_states.pop(opt_start)
p = ptgsk.region_model.get_region_parameter()
p_opt = ptgsk.optimize(TimeAxisFixedDeltaT(opt_start, dt, 24*num_opt_days), opt_state, target_spec_vec,
p, p_min, p_max, tr_stop=1.0e-5)
ptgsk.region_model.set_region_parameter(p_opt)
corr_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, curr_time, q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(TimeAxisFixedDeltaT(curr_time, dt, 24), corr_state)
curr_time += deltahours(24)
opt_states[curr_time] = ptgsk.reg_model_state
discharge = ptgsk.region_model.statistics.discharge([0])
times.extend(discharge.time(i) for i in range(discharge.size()))
values.extend(list(np.array(discharge.v)))
plt.plot(utc_to_greg(times), values)
plot_results(None, q_obs=observed_tistel_discharge(UtcPeriod(recal_start, recal_stop)))
set_calendar_formatter(Calendar())
#plt.interactive(1)
plt.title("Continuously recalibrated discharge vs observed")
plt.xlabel("Time in UTC")
plt.ylabel(r"Discharge in $\mathbf{m^3s^{-1}}$", verticalalignment="top", rotation="horizontal")
plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(0, 1.1)
def forecast_demo():
"""Simple forecast demo using arome data from met.no. Initial state
is bootstrapped by simulating one hydrological year (starting
Sept 1. 2011), and then calculating the state August 31. 2012. This
state is then used as initial state for simulating Sept 1, 2011,
after scaling with observed discharge. The validity of this approach
is limited by the temporal variation of the spatial distribution of
the discharge state, q, in the Kirchner method. The model is then
stepped forward until Oct 1, 2015, and then used to compute the
discharge for 65 hours using Arome data. At last, the results
are plotted as simple timeseries.
"""
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 10, 1))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_start - t_start) / dt))
n_fc = 65
obs_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs)
fc_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_fc_start, dt, n_fc)
total_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs + n_fc)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(total_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(
PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)),
q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(obs_time_axis, initial_state)
plot_results(ptgsk, q_obs_m3s_ts)
current_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, t_fc_start, q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk_fc = create_tistel_simulator(
PTGSKModel, tistel.arome_repository(tistel.grid_spec, t_fc_start))
ptgsk_fc.run(fc_time_axis, current_state)
plt.figure()
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(fc_time_axis.total_period())
plot_results(ptgsk_fc, q_obs_m3s_ts)
plt.interactive(1)
plt.show()
def forecast_demo():
"""Simple forecast demo using arome data from met.no. Initial state
is bootstrapped by simulating one hydrological year (starting
Sept 1. 2011), and then calculating the state August 31. 2012. This
state is then used as initial state for simulating Sept 1, 2011,
after scaling with observed discharge. The validity of this approach
is limited by the temporal variation of the spatial distribution of
the discharge state, q, in the Kirchner method. The model is then
stepped forward until Oct 1, 2015, and then used to compute the
discharge for 65 hours using Arome data. At last, the results
are plotted as simple timeseries.
"""
utc = Calendar()
t_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2011, 9, 1))
t_fc_start = utc.time(YMDhms(2015, 10, 1))
dt = deltahours(1)
n_obs = int(round((t_fc_start - t_start)/dt))
n_fc = 65
obs_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs)
fc_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_fc_start, dt, n_fc)
total_time_axis = Timeaxis(t_start, dt, n_obs + n_fc)
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(total_time_axis.total_period())
ptgsk = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKOptModel, tistel.geo_ts_repository(tistel.grid_spec.epsg()))
initial_state = burn_in_state(ptgsk, t_start, utc.time(YMDhms(2012, 9, 1)), q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk.run(obs_time_axis, initial_state)
plot_results(ptgsk, q_obs_m3s_ts)
current_state = adjust_simulator_state(ptgsk, t_fc_start, q_obs_m3s_ts)
ptgsk_fc = create_tistel_simulator(PTGSKModel, tistel.arome_repository(tistel.grid_spec, t_fc_start))
ptgsk_fc.run(fc_time_axis, current_state)
plt.figure()
q_obs_m3s_ts = observed_tistel_discharge(fc_time_axis.total_period())
plot_results(ptgsk_fc, q_obs_m3s_ts)
#plt.interactive(1)
plt.show()
