def getActualBracketVector(year):
inputFilename = 'allBracketsTTT.json'
with open(inputFilename, 'r') as inputFile:
dataJson = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
dataPyDict = json.loads(dataJson)
bracketList = dataPyDict['brackets']
bracket = None
for bracketDict in bracketList:
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict['bracket'])
if bracket.year == year:
break
correctVector = [int(bracket.fullVector[i]) for i in range(len(bracket.fullVector))]
return correctVector
with open('allBracketsTTT.json', 'r') as inputFile:
jsonData = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
dataPyDict = json.loads(jsonData)
bracketList = dataPyDict['brackets']
# First 60 bits of Pick Favorite bracket string
pfBracketString = '111111111000101111111111000101111111111000101111111111000101'
#111111111000101
#111111111000101
#111111111000101
#111111111000101
# 2015:
#111111111101111
#111110011010101
#111101110001000
#111100111110101
pfVector = [int(pfBracketString[i]) for i in range(len(pfBracketString))]
for bracketDict in bracketList:
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict['bracket'])
actualFirst60 = bracket.fullVector[0:60]
actualVector = [int(actualFirst60[i]) for i in range(len(actualFirst60))]
hammingDist = sum(ch1 != ch2 for ch1, ch2 in zip(pfVector, actualVector))
print '{0}: {1}'.format(bracket.year, hammingDist)
# print '{0:<20s}{1}'.format('Actual: ', actualFirst60)
# print '{0:<20s}{1}'.format('Pick Fav.: ', pfBracketString)
# print ''
def performFixedAlphaExperiments(numTrials, year, isFixedFirstRoundAlphas, isFixedK, rangeK, batchNumber):
inputFilename = 'allBracketsTTT.json'
with open(inputFilename, 'r') as inputFile:
dataJson = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
dataPyDict = json.loads(dataJson)
bracketList = dataPyDict['brackets']
bracket = None
for bracketDict in bracketList:
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict['bracket'])
if bracket.year == year:
break
correctVector = [int(bracket.fullVector[i]) for i in range(len(bracket.fullVector))]
# 0-th index is unused for easy indexing
alphaAvg = [0, 1.2, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.3, 1.8]
# Weighted average alpha values per round per year, rounded to two dec. places
if year == 2013:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.01, 1.10, 0.91, 0.36, 1.00, 1.54]
elif year == 2014:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.00, 1.03, 0.90, 0.23, 1.03, 1.54]
elif year == 2015:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.04, 1.03, 0.86, 0.19, 0.93, 1.55]
elif year == 2016:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.12, 1.02, 0.88, 0.22, 0.97, 1.57]
elif year == 2017:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.05, 1.01, 0.90, 0.14, 1.00, 1.35]
else:
alphaAvg = [0, 1.2, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.3, 1.8] # should not reach this; old guesses for alpha values
brackets = []
for n in range(numTrials):
# Sample to get new alpha values for each trial
if isFixedK:
alphaSwing = [rangeK for i in range(7)]
else:
alphaSwing = []
for i in range(7):
swingVal = random.random() * rangeK
alphaSwing.append(swingVal)
alphaVals = [0]
for roundNum in range(1, 7):
roundAlpha = alphaAvg[roundNum]
roundAlpha += (2 * random.random() - 1) * alphaSwing[roundNum]
alphaVals.append(roundAlpha)
newBracketVector = generateBracket(alphaVals, year, isFixedFirstRoundAlphas, alphaSwing[1]) # We pass in the K that will be used for R1, if needed
newBracketScore = scoreBracket(newBracketVector, correctVector)
numCorrectPicks = calcCorrectPicks(newBracketScore)
newBracketString = ''.join(str(outcome) for outcome in newBracketVector)
brackets.append({'bracketVector': newBracketString, 'score': newBracketScore, 'correctPicks': numCorrectPicks, 'alphaVals': ['{0:5.2f}'.format(alphaVals[j]) for j in range(1, 7)]})
bracketListDict = {'year': year, 'actualBracket': bracket.fullVector, 'brackets': brackets}
outputFilename = 'Experiments/OneMillionTrials/Batch{5:02d}/generatedBrackets_{0}_{1}_{2}_{3}_{4:.2f}.json'.format(numTrials, year, isFixedFirstRoundAlphas, isFixedK, rangeK, batchNumber)
with open(outputFilename, 'w') as outputFile:
outputFile.write(json.dumps(bracketListDict))
outputFile = open(outputFilename, 'w')
outputFile.write('{')
outputFile.write('"brackets": [')
with open(inputFilename, 'r') as inputFile:
jsonData = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
jsonToPython = json.loads(jsonData)
bracketList = jsonToPython['brackets']
numBrackets = len(bracketList)
for i in range(0, numBrackets):
bracketDict = bracketList[i]['bracket']
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict)
for region in bracket.regions:
region.vector = convertRegionVector(region.vector, bracketFormat)
bracket.fullVector = ''.join([bracket.regions[j].vector for j in range(0, 4)]) + bracket.finalFour
writeBracket(outputFile, bracket)
if i < numBrackets - 1:
outputFile.write(',')
outputFile.write(']')
outputFile.write('}')
outputFile.close()
def testGofToUniform(pos1, pos2, pos3, isPooled, outputFile):
import json
from bracketClassDefinitions import Bracket
from bracketClassDefinitions import Region
from bracketClassDefinitions import buildBracketFromJson
DEBUG = True
formats = ['TTT', 'TTF', 'TFT', 'TFF', 'FTT', 'FTF', 'FFT', 'FFF']
patterns = ['000', '001', '010', '011', '100', '101', '110', '111']
if pos3 == -1:
patterns = ['00', '01', '10', '11']
for formatType in formats:
patternFreqs = [0 for i in range(len(patterns))]
filename = 'Brackets/{0}/allBrackets{0}.json'.format(formatType)
with open(filename, 'r') as inputFile:
jsonData = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
jsonToPython = json.loads(jsonData)
bracketList = jsonToPython['brackets']
numBrackets = len(bracketList)
for i in range(numBrackets):
bracketDict = bracketList[i]['bracket']
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict)
numRegions = 1
if isPooled:
numRegions = 4
for region in range(numRegions):
offset = region * 15
pos1Result = int(bracket.fullVector[pos1 + offset])
pos2Result = int(bracket.fullVector[pos2 + offset])
if pos3 == -1:
pos3Result = 0
else:
pos3Result = int(bracket.fullVector[pos3 + offset])
nPatterns = len(patterns)
index = pos1Result * nPatterns / 2 + pos2Result * nPatterns / 4 + pos3Result
patternFreqs[index] = patternFreqs[index] + 1
numBrackets = 33 * numRegions
expFreq = numBrackets * 1.0 / nPatterns
chiSquare = 0
for i in range(nPatterns):
chiSquare += (patternFreqs[i] - expFreq)**2 / expFreq
chiSquareLine = 'chi-square value = {0}'.format(chiSquare)
print formatType
print patterns
print patternFreqs
print chiSquareLine
print ''
if not outputFile is None:
header = '{3}: GOF Test vs. Uniform For Positions {0}, {1}, and {2}:\n'.format(
pos1, pos2, pos3, formatType)
if pos3 == -1:
header = '{0}: GOF Test vs. Uniform For Positions {1} and {2}:\n'.format(
formatType, pos1, pos2)
outputFile.write(header)
outputFile.write(patterns)
outputFile.write('\n')
outputFile.write(patternFreqs)
outputFile.write('\n{0}\n\n'.format(chiSquareLine))
def testPairwiseIndependence(pos1,
pos2,
formatType,
outputFile,
isPooled=False):
import json
from bracketClassDefinitions import Bracket
from bracketClassDefinitions import Region
from bracketClassDefinitions import buildBracketFromJson
DEBUG = False
patterns = ['00', '01', '10', '11']
patternFreqs = [0 for i in range(4)]
filename = 'Brackets/{0}/allBrackets{0}.json'.format(formatType)
with open(filename, 'r') as inputFile:
jsonData = inputFile.read().replace('\n', '')
jsonToPython = json.loads(jsonData)
bracketList = jsonToPython['brackets']
numBrackets = len(bracketList)
for i in range(numBrackets):
bracketDict = bracketList[i]['bracket']
bracket = buildBracketFromJson(bracketDict)
nRegions = 1
if isPooled:
nRegions = 4
for region in range(nRegions):
offset = region * 15
pos1Result = int(bracket.fullVector[pos1 + offset])
pos2Result = int(bracket.fullVector[pos2 + offset])
index = pos1Result * 2 + pos2Result
patternFreqs[index] = patternFreqs[index] + 1
rowSums = [
patternFreqs[0] + patternFreqs[1], patternFreqs[2] + patternFreqs[3]
]
colSums = [
patternFreqs[0] + patternFreqs[2], patternFreqs[1] + patternFreqs[3]
]
# The chi-square critical value for 1 degree of freedom and alpha = 0.05
# is 3.841. (Source: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3674.htm)
# We print the result only if it is deemed significant.
isSignificant = 0
chiSquare = 0
nObservations = numBrackets * nRegions
for r in range(len(rowSums)):
for c in range(len(colSums)):
expFreq = rowSums[r] * colSums[c] * 1.0 / nObservations
if expFreq > 0:
obsFreq = patternFreqs[2 * r + c] * 1.0
chiSquare += (obsFreq - expFreq)**2 / expFreq
else:
if DEBUG:
print '{0}: Game {1} (left) vs. Game {2} (top)'.format(
formatType, pos1, pos2)
print 'Cannot perform chi-square test of independence: expected frequency is 0.'
return isSignificant
header = '{0}: Bits {1} and {2}'.format(formatType, pos1, pos2)
chiSquareLine = 'c^2 = {:<6.4f}\n\n'.format(chiSquare)
if chiSquare >= 3.841:
# outputFile.write('{0}: {1}'.format(header, chiSquareLine))
outputFile.write('{0:02d} {1:02d} --- {2:>7.4f}\n'.format(
pos1, pos2, chiSquare))
isSignificant = 1
if DEBUG:
print header
print ' | 0 | 1 || Total'
print '--------------------------'
print ' 0 | {:<3} | {:<3} || {:<3}'.format(patternFreqs[0],
patternFreqs[1],
rowSums[0])
print '--------------------------'
print ' 1 | {:<3} | {:<3} || {:<3}'.format(patternFreqs[2],
patternFreqs[3],
rowSums[1])
print '--------------------------'
print '--------------------------'
print 'Total | {:<3} | {:<3} || {:<3}\n'.format(
colSums[0], colSums[1], numBrackets * 4)
print chiSquareLine
return isSignificant
