def run_day_of_month_analysis(self, strat):
from pythalesians.economics.seasonality.seasonality import Seasonality
from pythalesians.timeseries.calcs.timeseriescalcs import TimeSeriesCalcs
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
seas = Seasonality()
strat.construct_strategy()
pnl = strat.get_strategy_pnl()
# get seasonality by day of the month
pnl = pnl.resample('B').mean()
rets = tsc.calculate_returns(pnl)
bus_day = seas.bus_day_of_month_seasonality(rets, add_average = True)
# get seasonality by month
pnl = pnl.resample('BM').mean()
rets = tsc.calculate_returns(pnl)
month = seas.monthly_seasonality(rets)
self.logger.info("About to plot seasonality...")
gp = GraphProperties()
pf = PlotFactory()
# Plotting spot over day of month/month of year
gp.color = 'Blues'
gp.scale_factor = self.SCALE_FACTOR
gp.file_output = self.DUMP_PATH + strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' seasonality day of month.png'
gp.html_file_output = self.DUMP_PATH + strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' seasonality day of month.html'
gp.title = strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' day of month seasonality'
gp.display_legend = False
gp.color_2_series = [bus_day.columns[-1]]
gp.color_2 = ['red'] # red, pink
gp.linewidth_2 = 4
gp.linewidth_2_series = [bus_day.columns[-1]]
gp.y_axis_2_series = [bus_day.columns[-1]]
pf.plot_line_graph(bus_day, adapter = self.DEFAULT_PLOT_ENGINE, gp = gp)
gp = GraphProperties()
gp.scale_factor = self.SCALE_FACTOR
gp.file_output = self.DUMP_PATH + strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' seasonality month of year.png'
gp.html_file_output = self.DUMP_PATH + strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' seasonality month of year.html'
gp.title = strat.FINAL_STRATEGY + ' month of year seasonality'
pf.plot_line_graph(month, adapter = self.DEFAULT_PLOT_ENGINE, gp = gp)
return month
def monthly_seasonality(self,
data_frame,
cum=True,
add_average=False,
price_index=False):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if price_index:
data_frame = data_frame.resample('BM') # resample into month end
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
data_frame.index = pandas.to_datetime(data_frame.index)
monthly_seasonality = tsc.average_by_month(data_frame)
if add_average:
monthly_seasonality['Avg'] = monthly_seasonality.mean(axis=1)
if cum is True:
monthly_seasonality.loc[0] = numpy.zeros(
len(monthly_seasonality.columns))
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.sort()
monthly_seasonality = tsc.create_mult_index(monthly_seasonality)
return monthly_seasonality
def run_strategy_returns_stats(self, strategy):
"""
run_strategy_returns_stats - Plots useful statistics for the trading strategy (using PyFolio)
Parameters
----------
strategy : StrategyTemplate
defining trading strategy
"""
pnl = strategy.get_strategy_pnl()
tz = TimeSeriesTimezone()
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# PyFolio assumes UTC time based DataFrames (so force this localisation)
try:
pnl = tz.localise_index_as_UTC(pnl)
except: pass
# TODO for intraday strategy make daily
# convert DataFrame (assumed to have only one column) to Series
pnl = tsc.calculate_returns(pnl)
pnl = pnl[pnl.columns[0]]
fig = pf.create_returns_tear_sheet(pnl, return_fig=True)
try:
plt.savefig (strategy.DUMP_PATH + "stats.png")
except: pass
plt.show()
def bus_day_of_month_seasonality(self, data_frame,
month_list = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12], cum = True,
cal = "FX", partition_by_month = True, add_average = False, price_index = False):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
tsf = TimeSeriesFilter()
if price_index:
data_frame = data_frame.resample('B') # resample into business days
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
data_frame.index = pandas.to_datetime(data_frame.index)
data_frame = tsf.filter_time_series_by_holidays(data_frame, cal)
monthly_seasonality = tsc.average_by_month_day_by_bus_day(data_frame, cal)
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.loc[month_list]
if partition_by_month:
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.unstack(level=0)
if add_average:
monthly_seasonality['Avg'] = monthly_seasonality.mean(axis=1)
if cum is True:
if partition_by_month:
monthly_seasonality.loc[0] = numpy.zeros(len(monthly_seasonality.columns))
# monthly_seasonality.index = monthly_seasonality.index + 1 # shifting index
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.sort()
monthly_seasonality = tsc.create_mult_index(monthly_seasonality)
return monthly_seasonality
def calculate_vol_adjusted_returns(self, returns_df, br, returns = True):
"""
calculate_vol_adjusted_returns - Adjusts returns for a vol target
Parameters
----------
br : BacktestRequest
Parameters for the backtest specifying start date, finish data, transaction costs etc.
returns_a_df : pandas.DataFrame
Asset returns to be traded
Returns
-------
pandas.DataFrame
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
if not(hasattr(br, 'portfolio_vol_resample_type')):
br.portfolio_vol_resample_type = 'mean'
leverage_df = self.calculate_leverage_factor(returns_df,
br.portfolio_vol_target, br.portfolio_vol_max_leverage,
br.portfolio_vol_periods, br.portfolio_vol_obs_in_year,
br.portfolio_vol_rebalance_freq, br.portfolio_vol_resample_freq,
br.portfolio_vol_resample_type)
vol_returns_df = tsc.calculate_signal_returns_with_tc_matrix(leverage_df, returns_df, tc = br.spot_tc_bp)
vol_returns_df.columns = returns_df.columns
return vol_returns_df, leverage_df
def run_strategy_returns_stats(self, strategy):
"""
run_strategy_returns_stats - Plots useful statistics for the trading strategy (using PyFolio)
Parameters
----------
strategy : StrategyTemplate
defining trading strategy
"""
pnl = strategy.get_strategy_pnl()
tz = TimeSeriesTimezone()
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# PyFolio assumes UTC time based DataFrames (so force this localisation)
try:
pnl = tz.localise_index_as_UTC(pnl)
except:
pass
# TODO for intraday strategy make daily
# convert DataFrame (assumed to have only one column) to Series
pnl = tsc.calculate_returns(pnl)
pnl = pnl[pnl.columns[0]]
fig = pf.create_returns_tear_sheet(pnl, return_fig=True)
try:
plt.savefig(strategy.DUMP_PATH + "stats.png")
except:
pass
plt.show()
def calculate_vol_adjusted_returns(self, returns_df, br, returns=True):
"""
calculate_vol_adjusted_returns - Adjusts returns for a vol target
Parameters
----------
br : BacktestRequest
Parameters for the backtest specifying start date, finish data, transaction costs etc.
returns_a_df : pandas.DataFrame
Asset returns to be traded
Returns
-------
pandas.DataFrame
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
if not (hasattr(br, 'portfolio_vol_resample_type')):
br.portfolio_vol_resample_type = 'mean'
leverage_df = self.calculate_leverage_factor(
returns_df, br.portfolio_vol_target, br.portfolio_vol_max_leverage,
br.portfolio_vol_periods, br.portfolio_vol_obs_in_year,
br.portfolio_vol_rebalance_freq, br.portfolio_vol_resample_freq,
br.portfolio_vol_resample_type)
vol_returns_df = tsc.calculate_signal_returns_with_tc_matrix(
leverage_df, returns_df, tc=br.spot_tc_bp)
vol_returns_df.columns = returns_df.columns
return vol_returns_df, leverage_df
def calculate_leverage_factor(self, returns_df, vol_target, vol_max_leverage, vol_periods = 60, vol_obs_in_year = 252,
vol_rebalance_freq = 'BM', returns = True, period_shift = 0):
"""
calculate_leverage_factor - Calculates the time series of leverage for a specified vol target
Parameters
----------
returns_df : DataFrame
Asset returns
vol_target : float
vol target for assets
vol_max_leverage : float
maximum leverage allowed
vol_periods : int
number of periods to calculate volatility
vol_obs_in_year : int
number of observations in the year
vol_rebalance_freq : str
how often to rebalance
returns : boolean
is this returns time series or prices?
period_shift : int
should we delay the signal by a number of periods?
Returns
-------
pandas.Dataframe
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
roll_vol_df = tsc.rolling_volatility(returns_df,
periods = vol_periods, obs_in_year = vol_obs_in_year).shift(period_shift)
# calculate the leverage as function of vol target (with max lev constraint)
lev_df = vol_target / roll_vol_df
lev_df[lev_df > vol_max_leverage] = vol_max_leverage
# only allow the leverage change at resampling frequency (eg. monthly 'BM')
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq)
returns_df, lev_df = returns_df.align(lev_df, join='left', axis = 0)
lev_df = lev_df.fillna(method='ffill')
return lev_df
def calculate_ret_stats_from_prices(self, prices_df, ann_factor):
"""
calculate_ret_stats_from_prices - Calculates return statistics for an asset's price
Parameters
----------
prices_df : DataFrame
asset prices
ann_factor : int
annualisation factor to use on return statistics
Returns
-------
DataFrame
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
self.calculate_ret_stats(tsc.calculate_returns(prices_df), ann_factor)
def calculate_ret_stats_from_prices(self, prices_df, ann_factor):
"""
calculate_ret_stats_from_prices - Calculates return statistics for an asset's price
Parameters
----------
prices_df : DataFrame
asset prices
ann_factor : int
annualisation factor to use on return statistics
Returns
-------
DataFrame
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
self.calculate_ret_stats(tsc.calculate_returns(prices_df), ann_factor)
def bus_day_of_month_seasonality(
self,
data_frame,
month_list=[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12],
cum=True,
cal="FX",
partition_by_month=True,
add_average=False,
price_index=False):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
tsf = TimeSeriesFilter()
if price_index:
data_frame = data_frame.resample(
'B') # resample into business days
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
data_frame.index = pandas.to_datetime(data_frame.index)
data_frame = tsf.filter_time_series_by_holidays(data_frame, cal)
monthly_seasonality = tsc.average_by_month_day_by_bus_day(
data_frame, cal)
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.loc[month_list]
if partition_by_month:
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.unstack(level=0)
if add_average:
monthly_seasonality['Avg'] = monthly_seasonality.mean(axis=1)
if cum is True:
if partition_by_month:
monthly_seasonality.loc[0] = numpy.zeros(
len(monthly_seasonality.columns))
# monthly_seasonality.index = monthly_seasonality.index + 1 # shifting index
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.sort()
monthly_seasonality = tsc.create_mult_index(monthly_seasonality)
return monthly_seasonality
def run_strategy_returns_stats(self, strategy):
"""
run_strategy_returns_stats - Plots useful statistics for the trading strategy (using PyFolio)
Parameters
----------
strategy : StrategyTemplate
defining trading strategy
"""
pnl = strategy.get_strategy_pnl()
tz = TimeSeriesTimezone()
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# PyFolio assumes UTC time based DataFrames (so force this localisation)
try:
pnl = tz.localise_index_as_UTC(pnl)
except: pass
# set the matplotlib style sheet & defaults
# at present this only works in Matplotlib engine
try:
matplotlib.rcdefaults()
plt.style.use(GraphicsConstants().plotfactory_pythalesians_style_sheet['pythalesians-pyfolio'])
except: pass
# TODO for intraday strategies, make daily
# convert DataFrame (assumed to have only one column) to Series
pnl = tsc.calculate_returns(pnl)
pnl = pnl.dropna()
pnl = pnl[pnl.columns[0]]
fig = pf.create_returns_tear_sheet(pnl, return_fig=True)
try:
plt.savefig (strategy.DUMP_PATH + "stats.png")
except: pass
plt.show()
def monthly_seasonality(self, data_frame,
cum = True,
add_average = False, price_index = False):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if price_index:
data_frame = data_frame.resample('BM') # resample into month end
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
data_frame.index = pandas.to_datetime(data_frame.index)
monthly_seasonality = tsc.average_by_month(data_frame)
if add_average:
monthly_seasonality['Avg'] = monthly_seasonality.mean(axis=1)
if cum is True:
monthly_seasonality.loc[0] = numpy.zeros(len(monthly_seasonality.columns))
monthly_seasonality = monthly_seasonality.sort()
monthly_seasonality = tsc.create_mult_index(monthly_seasonality)
return monthly_seasonality
def calculate_trading_PnL(self, br, asset_a_df, signal_df):
"""
calculate_trading_PnL - Calculates P&L of a trading strategy and statistics to be retrieved later
Parameters
----------
br : BacktestRequest
Parameters for the backtest specifying start date, finish data, transaction costs etc.
asset_a_df : pandas.DataFrame
Asset prices to be traded
signal_df : pandas.DataFrame
Signals for the trading strategy
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# signal_df.to_csv('e:/temp0.csv')
# make sure the dates of both traded asset and signal are aligned properly
asset_df, signal_df = asset_a_df.align(signal_df,
join='left',
axis='index')
# only allow signals to change on the days when we can trade assets
signal_df = signal_df.mask(numpy.isnan(
asset_df.values)) # fill asset holidays with NaN signals
signal_df = signal_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill these down
asset_df = asset_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill down asset holidays
returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(asset_df)
tc = br.spot_tc_bp
signal_cols = signal_df.columns.values
returns_cols = returns_df.columns.values
pnl_cols = []
for i in range(0, len(returns_cols)):
pnl_cols.append(returns_cols[i] + " / " + signal_cols[i])
# do we have a vol target for individual signals?
if hasattr(br, 'signal_vol_adjust'):
if br.signal_vol_adjust is True:
if not (hasattr(br, 'signal_vol_resample_type')):
br.signal_vol_resample_type = 'mean'
leverage_df = self.calculate_leverage_factor(
returns_df, br.signal_vol_target,
br.signal_vol_max_leverage, br.signal_vol_periods,
br.signal_vol_obs_in_year, br.signal_vol_rebalance_freq,
br.signal_vol_resample_freq, br.signal_vol_resample_type)
signal_df = pandas.DataFrame(signal_df.values *
leverage_df.values,
index=signal_df.index,
columns=signal_df.columns)
self._individual_leverage = leverage_df # contains leverage of individual signal (before portfolio vol target)
_pnl = tsc.calculate_signal_returns_with_tc_matrix(signal_df,
returns_df,
tc=tc)
_pnl.columns = pnl_cols
# portfolio is average of the underlying signals: should we sum them or average them?
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_combination'):
if br.portfolio_combination == 'sum':
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data=_pnl.sum(axis=1),
index=_pnl.index,
columns=['Portfolio'])
elif br.portfolio_combination == 'mean':
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data=_pnl.mean(axis=1),
index=_pnl.index,
columns=['Portfolio'])
else:
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data=_pnl.mean(axis=1),
index=_pnl.index,
columns=['Portfolio'])
portfolio_leverage_df = pandas.DataFrame(data=numpy.ones(
len(_pnl.index)),
index=_pnl.index,
columns=['Portfolio'])
# should we apply vol target on a portfolio level basis?
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_vol_adjust'):
if br.portfolio_vol_adjust is True:
portfolio, portfolio_leverage_df = self.calculate_vol_adjusted_returns(
portfolio, br=br)
self._portfolio = portfolio
self._signal = signal_df # individual signals (before portfolio leverage)
self._portfolio_leverage = portfolio_leverage_df # leverage on portfolio
# multiply portfolio leverage * individual signals to get final position signals
length_cols = len(signal_df.columns)
leverage_matrix = numpy.repeat(
portfolio_leverage_df.values.flatten()[numpy.newaxis, :],
length_cols, 0)
# final portfolio signals (including signal & portfolio leverage)
self._portfolio_signal = pandas.DataFrame(data=numpy.multiply(
numpy.transpose(leverage_matrix), signal_df.values),
index=signal_df.index,
columns=signal_df.columns)
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_combination'):
if br.portfolio_combination == 'sum':
pass
elif br.portfolio_combination == 'mean':
self._portfolio_signal = self._portfolio_signal / float(
length_cols)
else:
self._portfolio_signal = self._portfolio_signal / float(
length_cols)
self._pnl = _pnl # individual signals P&L
# TODO FIX very slow - hence only calculate on demand
_pnl_trades = None
# _pnl_trades = tsc.calculate_individual_trade_gains(signal_df, _pnl)
self._pnl_trades = _pnl_trades
self._tsd_pnl = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_pnl.calculate_ret_stats(self._pnl, br.ann_factor)
self._portfolio.columns = ['Port']
self._tsd_portfolio = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_portfolio.calculate_ret_stats(self._portfolio, br.ann_factor)
self._cumpnl = tsc.create_mult_index(
self._pnl) # individual signals cumulative P&L
self._cumpnl.columns = pnl_cols
self._cumportfolio = tsc.create_mult_index(
self._portfolio) # portfolio cumulative P&L
self._cumportfolio.columns = ['Port']
def calculate_leverage_factor(self,
returns_df,
vol_target,
vol_max_leverage,
vol_periods=60,
vol_obs_in_year=252,
vol_rebalance_freq='BM',
data_resample_freq=None,
data_resample_type='mean',
returns=True,
period_shift=0):
"""
calculate_leverage_factor - Calculates the time series of leverage for a specified vol target
Parameters
----------
returns_df : DataFrame
Asset returns
vol_target : float
vol target for assets
vol_max_leverage : float
maximum leverage allowed
vol_periods : int
number of periods to calculate volatility
vol_obs_in_year : int
number of observations in the year
vol_rebalance_freq : str
how often to rebalance
vol_resample_freq : str
do we need to resample the underlying data first? (eg. have we got intraday data?)
returns : boolean
is this returns time series or prices?
period_shift : int
should we delay the signal by a number of periods?
Returns
-------
pandas.Dataframe
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if data_resample_freq is not None:
return
# TODO not implemented yet
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
roll_vol_df = tsc.rolling_volatility(
returns_df, periods=vol_periods,
obs_in_year=vol_obs_in_year).shift(period_shift)
# calculate the leverage as function of vol target (with max lev constraint)
lev_df = vol_target / roll_vol_df
lev_df[lev_df > vol_max_leverage] = vol_max_leverage
# should we take the mean, first, last in our resample
if data_resample_type == 'mean':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).mean()
elif data_resample_type == 'first':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).first()
elif data_resample_type == 'last':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).last()
else:
# TODO implement other types
return
returns_df, lev_df = returns_df.align(lev_df, join='left', axis=0)
lev_df = lev_df.fillna(method='ffill')
lev_df.ix[
0:
vol_periods] = numpy.nan # ignore the first elements before the vol window kicks in
return lev_df
'GBPUSD',
'AUDUSD'],
fields = ['close'], # which fields to download
vendor_tickers = ['EURUSD BGN Curncy', # ticker (Bloomberg)
'GBPUSD BGN Curncy',
'AUDUSD BGN Curncy'],
vendor_fields = ['PX_LAST'], # which Bloomberg fields to download
cache_algo = 'internet_load_return') # how to return data
ltsf = LightTimeSeriesFactory()
df = None
df = ltsf.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
df = tsc.calculate_returns(df)
df = tsc.rolling_corr(df['EURUSD.close'], 20, data_frame2 = df[['GBPUSD.close', 'AUDUSD.close']])
gp = GraphProperties()
gp.title = "1M FX rolling correlations"
gp.scale_factor = 3
pf = PlotFactory()
pf.plot_line_graph(df, adapter = 'pythalesians', gp = gp)
###### download daily data from Bloomberg for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY spot with S&P500, then calculate correlation
if True:
time_series_request = TimeSeriesRequest(
start_date="01 Jan 2015", # start date
finish_date=datetime.date.today(), # finish date
freq='daily', # daily data
def construct_strategy(self):
"""
construct_strategy - Constructs the returns for all the strategies which have been specified.
- gets parameters form fill_backtest_request
- market data from fill_assets
"""
time_series_calcs = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# get the parameters for backtesting
if hasattr(self, 'br'):
br = self.br
else:
br = self.fill_backtest_request()
# get market data for backtest
asset_df, spot_df, spot_df2, basket_dict = self.fill_assets()
if hasattr(br, 'tech_params'):
tech_params = br.tech_params
else:
tech_params = TechParams()
cumresults = pandas.DataFrame(index=asset_df.index)
portleverage = pandas.DataFrame(index=asset_df.index)
tsdresults = {}
# each portfolio key calculate returns - can put parts of the portfolio in the key
for key in basket_dict.keys():
asset_cut_df = asset_df[[x + '.close' for x in basket_dict[key]]]
spot_cut_df = spot_df[[x + '.close' for x in basket_dict[key]]]
self.logger.info("Calculating " + key)
results, cash_backtest = self.construct_individual_strategy(
br, spot_cut_df, spot_df2, asset_cut_df, tech_params, key)
cumresults[results.columns[0]] = results
portleverage[
results.columns[0]] = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_leverage()
tsdresults[key] = cash_backtest.get_portfolio_pnl_tsd()
# for a key, designated as the final strategy save that as the "strategy"
if key == self.FINAL_STRATEGY:
self._strategy_pnl = results
self._strategy_pnl_tsd = cash_backtest.get_portfolio_pnl_tsd()
self._strategy_leverage = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_leverage()
self._strategy_signal = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_signal()
# get benchmark for comparison
benchmark = self.construct_strategy_benchmark()
cumresults_benchmark = self.compare_strategy_vs_benchmark(
br, cumresults, benchmark)
self._strategy_group_benchmark_tsd = tsdresults
if hasattr(self, '_benchmark_tsd'):
tsdlist = tsdresults
tsdlist['Benchmark'] = (self._benchmark_tsd)
self._strategy_group_benchmark_tsd = tsdlist
# calculate annualised returns
years = time_series_calcs.average_by_annualised_year(
time_series_calcs.calculate_returns(cumresults_benchmark))
self._strategy_group_pnl = cumresults
self._strategy_group_pnl_tsd = tsdresults
self._strategy_group_benchmark_pnl = cumresults_benchmark
self._strategy_group_leverage = portleverage
self._strategy_group_benchmark_annualised_pnl = years
def get_fx_cross(self, start, end, cross,
cut = "NYC", source = "bloomberg", freq = "intraday", cache_algo='cache_algo_return', type = 'spot'):
if source == "gain" or source == 'dukascopy' or freq == 'tick':
return self.get_fx_cross_tick(start, end, cross,
cut = cut, source = source, cache_algo='cache_algo_return', type = 'spot')
if isinstance(cross, str):
cross = [cross]
time_series_request = TimeSeriesRequest()
time_series_factory = self.time_series_factory
time_series_calcs = TimeSeriesCalcs()
data_frame_agg = None
if freq == 'intraday':
time_series_request.gran_freq = "minute" # intraday
elif freq == 'daily':
time_series_request.gran_freq = "daily" # intraday
time_series_request.freq_mult = 1 # 1 min
time_series_request.cut = cut # NYC/BGN ticker
time_series_request.fields = 'close' # close field only
time_series_request.cache_algo = cache_algo # cache_algo_only, cache_algo_return, internet_load
time_series_request.environment = 'backtest'
time_series_request.start_date = start
time_series_request.finish_date = end
time_series_request.data_source = source
for cr in cross:
base = cr[0:3]
terms = cr[3:6]
if (type == 'spot'):
# non-USD crosses
if base != 'USD' and terms != 'USD':
base_USD = self.fxconv.correct_notation('USD' + base)
terms_USD = self.fxconv.correct_notation('USD' + terms)
# TODO check if the cross exists in the database
# download base USD cross
time_series_request.tickers = base_USD
time_series_request.category = self.fxconv.em_or_g10(base, freq)
base_vals = time_series_factory.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
# download terms USD cross
time_series_request.tickers = terms_USD
time_series_request.category = self.fxconv.em_or_g10(terms, freq)
terms_vals = time_series_factory.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
if (base_USD[0:3] == 'USD'):
base_vals = 1 / base_vals
if (terms_USD[0:3] == 'USD'):
terms_vals = 1 / terms_vals
base_vals.columns = ['temp']
terms_vals.columns = ['temp']
cross_vals = base_vals.div(terms_vals, axis = 'index')
cross_vals.columns = [cr + '.close']
else:
if base == 'USD': non_USD = terms
if terms == 'USD': non_USD = base
correct_cr = self.fxconv.correct_notation(cr)
time_series_request.tickers = correct_cr
time_series_request.category = self.fxconv.em_or_g10(non_USD, freq)
cross_vals = time_series_factory.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
# flip if not convention
if(correct_cr != cr):
cross_vals = 1 / cross_vals
cross_vals.columns.names = [cr + '.close']
elif type[0:3] == "tot":
if freq == 'daily':
# download base USD cross
time_series_request.tickers = base + 'USD'
time_series_request.category = self.fxconv.em_or_g10(base, freq) + '-tot'
if type == "tot":
base_vals = time_series_factory.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
else:
x = 0
# download terms USD cross
time_series_request.tickers = terms + 'USD'
time_series_request.category = self.fxconv.em_or_g10(terms, freq) + '-tot'
if type == "tot":
terms_vals = time_series_factory.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
else:
x = 0
base_rets = time_series_calcs.calculate_returns(base_vals)
terms_rets = time_series_calcs.calculate_returns(terms_vals)
cross_rets = base_rets.sub(terms_rets.iloc[:,0],axis=0)
# first returns of a time series will by NaN, given we don't know previous point
cross_rets.iloc[0] = 0
cross_vals = time_series_calcs.create_mult_index(cross_rets)
cross_vals.columns = [cr + '-tot.close']
elif freq == 'intraday':
self.logger.info('Total calculated returns for intraday not implemented yet')
return None
if data_frame_agg is None:
data_frame_agg = cross_vals
else:
data_frame_agg = data_frame_agg.join(cross_vals, how='outer')
# strip the nan elements
data_frame_agg = data_frame_agg.dropna()
return data_frame_agg
def calculate_ret_stats_from_prices(self, returns_df, ann_factor):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
self.calculate_ret_stats(tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df), ann_factor)
def calculate_trading_PnL(self, br, asset_a_df, signal_df):
"""
calculate_trading_PnL - Calculates P&L of a trading strategy and statistics to be retrieved later
Parameters
----------
br : BacktestRequest
Parameters for the backtest specifying start date, finish data, transaction costs etc.
asset_a_df : pandas.DataFrame
Asset prices to be traded
signal_df : pandas.DataFrame
Signals for the trading strategy
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# make sure the dates of both traded asset and signal are aligned properly
asset_df, signal_df = asset_a_df.align(signal_df, join='left', axis = 0)
# only allow signals to change on the days when we can trade assets
signal_df = signal_df.mask(numpy.isnan(asset_df.values)) # fill asset holidays with NaN signals
signal_df = signal_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill these down
asset_df = asset_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill down asset holidays
returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(asset_df)
tc = br.spot_tc_bp
signal_cols = signal_df.columns.values
returns_cols = returns_df.columns.values
pnl_cols = []
for i in range(0, len(returns_cols)):
pnl_cols.append(returns_cols[i] + " / " + signal_cols[i])
if hasattr(br, 'signal_vol_adjust'):
if br.signal_vol_adjust is True:
leverage_df = self.calculate_leverage_factor(returns_df, br.signal_vol_target, br.signal_vol_max_leverage,
br.signal_vol_periods, br.signal_vol_obs_in_year,
br.signal_vol_rebalance_freq)
signal_df = pandas.DataFrame(
signal_df.values * leverage_df.values, index = signal_df.index, columns = signal_df.columns)
self._individual_leverage = leverage_df
_pnl = tsc.calculate_signal_returns_with_tc_matrix(signal_df, returns_df, tc = tc)
_pnl.columns = pnl_cols
# portfolio is average of the underlying signals
interim_portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data = _pnl.mean(axis = 1), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
portfolio_leverage_df = pandas.DataFrame(data = numpy.ones(len(_pnl.index)), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_vol_adjust'):
if br.portfolio_vol_adjust is True:
interim_portfolio, portfolio_leverage_df = self.calculate_vol_adjusted_returns(interim_portfolio, br = br)
self._portfolio = interim_portfolio
self._signal = signal_df
self._portfolio_leverage = portfolio_leverage_df
# multiply portfolio leverage * individual signals to get final position signals
length_cols = len(signal_df.columns)
leverage_matrix = numpy.repeat(portfolio_leverage_df.values.flatten()[numpy.newaxis,:], length_cols, 0)
self._portfolio_signal = pandas.DataFrame(
data = numpy.multiply(numpy.transpose(leverage_matrix), signal_df.values),
index = signal_df.index, columns = signal_df.columns) / float(length_cols)
self._pnl = _pnl
self._tsd_pnl = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_pnl.calculate_ret_stats(self._pnl, br.ann_factor)
self._portfolio.columns = ['Port']
self._tsd_portfolio = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_portfolio.calculate_ret_stats(self._portfolio, br.ann_factor)
self._cumpnl = tsc.create_mult_index(self._pnl)
self._cumpnl.columns = pnl_cols
self._cumportfolio = tsc.create_mult_index(self._portfolio)
self._cumportfolio.columns = ['Port']
fields=['close'], # which fields to download
vendor_tickers=[
'EURUSD BGN Curncy', # ticker (Bloomberg)
'GBPUSD BGN Curncy',
'AUDUSD BGN Curncy'
],
vendor_fields=['PX_LAST'], # which Bloomberg fields to download
cache_algo='internet_load_return') # how to return data
ltsf = LightTimeSeriesFactory()
df = None
df = ltsf.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
df = tsc.calculate_returns(df)
df = tsc.rolling_corr(df['EURUSD.close'],
20,
data_frame2=df[['GBPUSD.close', 'AUDUSD.close']])
gp = GraphProperties()
gp.title = "1M FX rolling correlations"
gp.scale_factor = 3
pf = PlotFactory()
pf.plot_line_graph(df, adapter='pythalesians', gp=gp)
###### download daily data from Bloomberg for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY spot with S&P500, then calculate correlation
if True:
time_series_request = TimeSeriesRequest(
start_date="01 Jan 2015", # start date
def calculate_leverage_factor(self, returns_df, vol_target, vol_max_leverage, vol_periods = 60, vol_obs_in_year = 252,
vol_rebalance_freq = 'BM', data_resample_freq = None, data_resample_type = 'mean',
returns = True, period_shift = 0):
"""
calculate_leverage_factor - Calculates the time series of leverage for a specified vol target
Parameters
----------
returns_df : DataFrame
Asset returns
vol_target : float
vol target for assets
vol_max_leverage : float
maximum leverage allowed
vol_periods : int
number of periods to calculate volatility
vol_obs_in_year : int
number of observations in the year
vol_rebalance_freq : str
how often to rebalance
vol_resample_freq : str
do we need to resample the underlying data first? (eg. have we got intraday data?)
returns : boolean
is this returns time series or prices?
period_shift : int
should we delay the signal by a number of periods?
Returns
-------
pandas.Dataframe
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if data_resample_freq is not None:
return
# TODO not implemented yet
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
roll_vol_df = tsc.rolling_volatility(returns_df,
periods = vol_periods, obs_in_year = vol_obs_in_year).shift(period_shift)
# calculate the leverage as function of vol target (with max lev constraint)
lev_df = vol_target / roll_vol_df
lev_df[lev_df > vol_max_leverage] = vol_max_leverage
# should we take the mean, first, last in our resample
if data_resample_type == 'mean':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).mean()
elif data_resample_type == 'first':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).first()
elif data_resample_type == 'last':
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq).last()
else:
# TODO implement other types
return
returns_df, lev_df = returns_df.align(lev_df, join='left', axis = 0)
lev_df = lev_df.fillna(method='ffill')
lev_df.ix[0:vol_periods] = numpy.nan # ignore the first elements before the vol window kicks in
return lev_df
def create_tech_ind(self, data_frame_non_nan, name, tech_params):
self._signal = None
data_frame = data_frame_non_nan.fillna(method="ffill")
if name == "SMA":
self._techind = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma_period)
narray = numpy.where(data_frame > self._techind, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " SMA Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind.columns = [x + " SMA" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name == "ROC":
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
self._techind = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.roc_period)
narray = numpy.where(self._techind > 0, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " ROC Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind.columns = [x + " ROC" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name == "SMA2":
sma = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma_period)
sma2 = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma2_period)
narray = numpy.where(sma > sma2, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " SMA2 Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
sma.columns = [x + " SMA" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
sma2.columns = [x + " SMA2" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind = pandas.concat([sma, sma2], axis = 1)
elif name in ['RSI']:
# delta = data_frame.diff()
#
# dUp, dDown = delta.copy(), delta.copy()
# dUp[dUp < 0] = 0
# dDown[dDown > 0] = 0
#
# rolUp = pandas.rolling_mean(dUp, tech_params.rsi_period)
# rolDown = pandas.rolling_mean(dDown, tech_params.rsi_period).abs()
#
# rsi = rolUp / rolDown
# Get the difference in price from previous step
delta = data_frame.diff()
# Get rid of the first row, which is NaN since it did not have a previous
# row to calculate the differences
delta = delta[1:]
# Make the positive gains (up) and negative gains (down) Series
up, down = delta.copy(), delta.copy()
up[up < 0] = 0
down[down > 0] = 0
# Calculate the EWMA
roll_up1 = pandas.stats.moments.ewma(up, tech_params.rsi_period)
roll_down1 = pandas.stats.moments.ewma(down.abs(), tech_params.rsi_period)
# Calculate the RSI based on EWMA
RS1 = roll_up1 / roll_down1
RSI1 = 100.0 - (100.0 / (1.0 + RS1))
# Calculate the SMA
roll_up2 = pandas.rolling_mean(up, tech_params.rsi_period)
roll_down2 = pandas.rolling_mean(down.abs(), tech_params.rsi_period)
# Calculate the RSI based on SMA
RS2 = roll_up2 / roll_down2
RSI2 = 100.0 - (100.0 / (1.0 + RS2))
self._techind = RSI2
self._techind.columns = [x + " RSI" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
signal = data_frame.copy()
sells = (signal.shift(-1) < tech_params.rsi_lower) & (signal > tech_params.rsi_lower)
buys = (signal.shift(-1) > tech_params.rsi_upper) & (signal < tech_params.rsi_upper)
print (buys[buys == True])
# buys
signal[buys] = 1
signal[sells] = -1
signal[~(buys | sells)] = numpy.nan
signal = signal.fillna(method = 'ffill')
self._signal = signal
self._signal.columns = [x + " RSI Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name in ["BB"]:
## calcuate Bollinger bands
mid = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.bb_period); mid.columns = [x + " BB Mid" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
std_dev = pandas.rolling_std(data_frame, tech_params.bb_period)
BB_std = tech_params.bb_mult * std_dev
lower = pandas.DataFrame(data = mid.values - BB_std.values, index = mid.index,
columns = data_frame.columns)
upper = pandas.DataFrame(data = mid.values + BB_std.values, index = mid.index,
columns = data_frame.columns)
## calculate signals
signal = data_frame.copy()
buys = signal > upper
sells = signal < lower
signal[buys] = 1
signal[sells] = -1
signal[~(buys | sells)] = numpy.nan
signal = signal.fillna(method = 'ffill')
self._signal = signal
self._signal.columns = [x + " " + name + " Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
lower.columns = [x + " BB Lower" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
upper.columns = [x + " BB Mid" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
upper.columns = [x + " BB Lower" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind = pandas.concat([lower, mid, upper], axis = 1)
# TODO create other indicators
return self._techind
def construct_strategy(self, br = None):
"""
construct_strategy - Constructs the returns for all the strategies which have been specified.
- gets parameters form fill_backtest_request
- market data from fill_assets
"""
time_series_calcs = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# get the parameters for backtesting
if hasattr(self, 'br'):
br = self.br
elif br is None:
br = self.fill_backtest_request()
# get market data for backtest
asset_df, spot_df, spot_df2, basket_dict = self.fill_assets()
if hasattr(br, 'tech_params'):
tech_params = br.tech_params
else:
tech_params = TechParams()
cumresults = pandas.DataFrame(index = asset_df.index)
portleverage = pandas.DataFrame(index = asset_df.index)
from collections import OrderedDict
tsdresults = OrderedDict()
# each portfolio key calculate returns - can put parts of the portfolio in the key
for key in basket_dict.keys():
asset_cut_df = asset_df[[x +'.close' for x in basket_dict[key]]]
spot_cut_df = spot_df[[x +'.close' for x in basket_dict[key]]]
self.logger.info("Calculating " + key)
results, cash_backtest = self.construct_individual_strategy(br, spot_cut_df, spot_df2, asset_cut_df, tech_params, key)
cumresults[results.columns[0]] = results
portleverage[results.columns[0]] = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_leverage()
tsdresults[key] = cash_backtest.get_portfolio_pnl_tsd()
# for a key, designated as the final strategy save that as the "strategy"
if key == self.FINAL_STRATEGY:
self._strategy_pnl = results
self._strategy_pnl_tsd = cash_backtest.get_portfolio_pnl_tsd()
self._strategy_leverage = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_leverage()
self._strategy_signal = cash_backtest.get_porfolio_signal()
self._strategy_pnl_trades = cash_backtest.get_pnl_trades()
# get benchmark for comparison
benchmark = self.construct_strategy_benchmark()
cumresults_benchmark = self.compare_strategy_vs_benchmark(br, cumresults, benchmark)
self._strategy_group_benchmark_tsd = tsdresults
if hasattr(self, '_benchmark_tsd'):
tsdlist = tsdresults
tsdlist['Benchmark'] = (self._benchmark_tsd)
self._strategy_group_benchmark_tsd = tsdlist
# calculate annualised returns
years = time_series_calcs.average_by_annualised_year(time_series_calcs.calculate_returns(cumresults_benchmark))
self._strategy_group_pnl = cumresults
self._strategy_group_pnl_tsd = tsdresults
self._strategy_group_benchmark_pnl = cumresults_benchmark
self._strategy_group_leverage = portleverage
self._strategy_group_benchmark_annualised_pnl = years
def create_tech_ind(self, data_frame_non_nan, name, tech_params):
self._signal = None
data_frame = data_frame_non_nan.fillna(method="ffill")
if name == "SMA":
self._techind = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma_period)
narray = numpy.where(data_frame > self._techind, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " SMA Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind.columns = [x + " SMA" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name == "ROC":
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
data_frame = tsc.calculate_returns(data_frame)
self._techind = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.roc_period)
narray = numpy.where(self._techind > 0, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " ROC Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind.columns = [x + " ROC" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name == "SMA2":
sma = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma_period)
sma2 = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.sma2_period)
narray = numpy.where(sma > sma2, 1, -1)
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " SMA2 Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
sma.columns = [x + " SMA" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
sma2.columns = [x + " SMA2" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind = pandas.concat([sma, sma2], axis = 1)
elif name in ['RSI']:
# delta = data_frame.diff()
#
# dUp, dDown = delta.copy(), delta.copy()
# dUp[dUp < 0] = 0
# dDown[dDown > 0] = 0
#
# rolUp = pandas.rolling_mean(dUp, tech_params.rsi_period)
# rolDown = pandas.rolling_mean(dDown, tech_params.rsi_period).abs()
#
# rsi = rolUp / rolDown
# Get the difference in price from previous step
delta = data_frame.diff()
# Get rid of the first row, which is NaN since it did not have a previous
# row to calculate the differences
delta = delta[1:]
# Make the positive gains (up) and negative gains (down) Series
up, down = delta.copy(), delta.copy()
up[up < 0] = 0
down[down > 0] = 0
# Calculate the EWMA
roll_up1 = pandas.stats.moments.ewma(up, tech_params.rsi_period)
roll_down1 = pandas.stats.moments.ewma(down.abs(), tech_params.rsi_period)
# Calculate the RSI based on EWMA
RS1 = roll_up1 / roll_down1
RSI1 = 100.0 - (100.0 / (1.0 + RS1))
# Calculate the SMA
roll_up2 = pandas.rolling_mean(up, tech_params.rsi_period)
roll_down2 = pandas.rolling_mean(down.abs(), tech_params.rsi_period)
# Calculate the RSI based on SMA
RS2 = roll_up2 / roll_down2
RSI2 = 100.0 - (100.0 / (1.0 + RS2))
self._techind = RSI2
self._techind.columns = [x + " RSI" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
signal = data_frame.copy()
sells = (signal.shift(-1) < tech_params.rsi_lower) & (signal > tech_params.rsi_lower)
buys = (signal.shift(-1) > tech_params.rsi_upper) & (signal < tech_params.rsi_upper)
# print (buys[buys == True])
# buys
signal[buys] = 1
signal[sells] = -1
signal[~(buys | sells)] = numpy.nan
signal = signal.fillna(method = 'ffill')
self._signal = signal
self._signal.columns = [x + " RSI Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
elif name in ["BB"]:
## calcuate Bollinger bands
mid = pandas.rolling_mean(data_frame, tech_params.bb_period); mid.columns = [x + " BB Mid" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
std_dev = pandas.rolling_std(data_frame, tech_params.bb_period)
BB_std = tech_params.bb_mult * std_dev
lower = pandas.DataFrame(data = mid.values - BB_std.values, index = mid.index,
columns = data_frame.columns)
upper = pandas.DataFrame(data = mid.values + BB_std.values, index = mid.index,
columns = data_frame.columns)
## calculate signals
signal = data_frame.copy()
buys = signal > upper
sells = signal < lower
signal[buys] = 1
signal[sells] = -1
signal[~(buys | sells)] = numpy.nan
signal = signal.fillna(method = 'ffill')
self._signal = signal
self._signal.columns = [x + " " + name + " Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
lower.columns = [x + " BB Lower" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
upper.columns = [x + " BB Mid" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
upper.columns = [x + " BB Lower" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind = pandas.concat([lower, mid, upper], axis = 1)
elif name == "long-only":
## have +1 signals only
self._techind = data_frame # the technical indicator is just "prices"
narray = numpy.ones((len(data_frame.index), len(data_frame.columns)))
self._signal = pandas.DataFrame(index = data_frame.index, data = narray)
self._signal.columns = [x + " Long Only Signal" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
self._techind.columns = [x + " Long Only" for x in data_frame.columns.values]
# TODO create other indicators
# apply signal multiplier (typically to flip signals)
if hasattr(tech_params, 'signal_mult'):
self._signal = self._signal * tech_params.signal_mult
return self._techind
def calculate_leverage_factor(self,
returns_df,
vol_target,
vol_max_leverage,
vol_periods=60,
vol_obs_in_year=252,
vol_rebalance_freq='BM',
returns=True,
period_shift=0):
"""
calculate_leverage_factor - Calculates the time series of leverage for a specified vol target
Parameters
----------
returns_df : DataFrame
Asset returns
vol_target : float
vol target for assets
vol_max_leverage : float
maximum leverage allowed
vol_periods : int
number of periods to calculate volatility
vol_obs_in_year : int
number of observations in the year
vol_rebalance_freq : str
how often to rebalance
returns : boolean
is this returns time series or prices?
period_shift : int
should we delay the signal by a number of periods?
Returns
-------
pandas.Dataframe
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
if not returns: returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df)
roll_vol_df = tsc.rolling_volatility(
returns_df, periods=vol_periods,
obs_in_year=vol_obs_in_year).shift(period_shift)
# calculate the leverage as function of vol target (with max lev constraint)
lev_df = vol_target / roll_vol_df
lev_df[lev_df > vol_max_leverage] = vol_max_leverage
# only allow the leverage change at resampling frequency (eg. monthly 'BM')
lev_df = lev_df.resample(vol_rebalance_freq)
returns_df, lev_df = returns_df.align(lev_df, join='left', axis=0)
lev_df = lev_df.fillna(method='ffill')
return lev_df
def calculate_trading_PnL(self, br, asset_a_df, signal_df):
"""
calculate_trading_PnL - Calculates P&L of a trading strategy and statistics to be retrieved later
Parameters
----------
br : BacktestRequest
Parameters for the backtest specifying start date, finish data, transaction costs etc.
asset_a_df : pandas.DataFrame
Asset prices to be traded
signal_df : pandas.DataFrame
Signals for the trading strategy
"""
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
# signal_df.to_csv('e:/temp0.csv')
# make sure the dates of both traded asset and signal are aligned properly
asset_df, signal_df = asset_a_df.align(signal_df, join='left', axis = 'index')
# only allow signals to change on the days when we can trade assets
signal_df = signal_df.mask(numpy.isnan(asset_df.values)) # fill asset holidays with NaN signals
signal_df = signal_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill these down
asset_df = asset_df.fillna(method='ffill') # fill down asset holidays
returns_df = tsc.calculate_returns(asset_df)
tc = br.spot_tc_bp
signal_cols = signal_df.columns.values
returns_cols = returns_df.columns.values
pnl_cols = []
for i in range(0, len(returns_cols)):
pnl_cols.append(returns_cols[i] + " / " + signal_cols[i])
# do we have a vol target for individual signals?
if hasattr(br, 'signal_vol_adjust'):
if br.signal_vol_adjust is True:
if not(hasattr(br, 'signal_vol_resample_type')):
br.signal_vol_resample_type = 'mean'
leverage_df = self.calculate_leverage_factor(returns_df, br.signal_vol_target, br.signal_vol_max_leverage,
br.signal_vol_periods, br.signal_vol_obs_in_year,
br.signal_vol_rebalance_freq, br.signal_vol_resample_freq,
br.signal_vol_resample_type)
signal_df = pandas.DataFrame(
signal_df.values * leverage_df.values, index = signal_df.index, columns = signal_df.columns)
self._individual_leverage = leverage_df # contains leverage of individual signal (before portfolio vol target)
_pnl = tsc.calculate_signal_returns_with_tc_matrix(signal_df, returns_df, tc = tc)
_pnl.columns = pnl_cols
# portfolio is average of the underlying signals: should we sum them or average them?
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_combination'):
if br.portfolio_combination == 'sum':
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data = _pnl.sum(axis = 1), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
elif br.portfolio_combination == 'mean':
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data = _pnl.mean(axis = 1), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
else:
portfolio = pandas.DataFrame(data = _pnl.mean(axis = 1), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
portfolio_leverage_df = pandas.DataFrame(data = numpy.ones(len(_pnl.index)), index = _pnl.index, columns = ['Portfolio'])
# should we apply vol target on a portfolio level basis?
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_vol_adjust'):
if br.portfolio_vol_adjust is True:
portfolio, portfolio_leverage_df = self.calculate_vol_adjusted_returns(portfolio, br = br)
self._portfolio = portfolio
self._signal = signal_df # individual signals (before portfolio leverage)
self._portfolio_leverage = portfolio_leverage_df # leverage on portfolio
# multiply portfolio leverage * individual signals to get final position signals
length_cols = len(signal_df.columns)
leverage_matrix = numpy.repeat(portfolio_leverage_df.values.flatten()[numpy.newaxis,:], length_cols, 0)
# final portfolio signals (including signal & portfolio leverage)
self._portfolio_signal = pandas.DataFrame(
data = numpy.multiply(numpy.transpose(leverage_matrix), signal_df.values),
index = signal_df.index, columns = signal_df.columns)
if hasattr(br, 'portfolio_combination'):
if br.portfolio_combination == 'sum':
pass
elif br.portfolio_combination == 'mean':
self._portfolio_signal = self._portfolio_signal / float(length_cols)
else:
self._portfolio_signal = self._portfolio_signal / float(length_cols)
self._pnl = _pnl # individual signals P&L
# TODO FIX very slow - hence only calculate on demand
_pnl_trades = None
# _pnl_trades = tsc.calculate_individual_trade_gains(signal_df, _pnl)
self._pnl_trades = _pnl_trades
self._tsd_pnl = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_pnl.calculate_ret_stats(self._pnl, br.ann_factor)
self._portfolio.columns = ['Port']
self._tsd_portfolio = TimeSeriesDesc()
self._tsd_portfolio.calculate_ret_stats(self._portfolio, br.ann_factor)
self._cumpnl = tsc.create_mult_index(self._pnl) # individual signals cumulative P&L
self._cumpnl.columns = pnl_cols
self._cumportfolio = tsc.create_mult_index(self._portfolio) # portfolio cumulative P&L
self._cumportfolio.columns = ['Port']
start_date="01 Jan 1970", # start date
finish_date=datetime.date.today(), # finish date
freq='daily', # daily data
data_source='quandl', # use Quandl as data source
tickers=[
'EURUSD', # ticker (Thalesians)
'GBPUSD'
],
fields=['close'], # which fields to download
vendor_tickers=['FRED/DEXUSEU', 'FRED/DEXUSUK'], # ticker (Quandl)
vendor_fields=['close'], # which Bloomberg fields to download
cache_algo='internet_load_return') # how to return data
ltsf = LightTimeSeriesFactory()
df = ltsf.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
df_ret = tsc.calculate_returns(df)
day_of_month_seasonality = seasonality.bus_day_of_month_seasonality(
df_ret, partition_by_month=False)
day_of_month_seasonality = tsc.convert_month_day_to_date_time(
day_of_month_seasonality)
gp = GraphProperties()
gp.date_formatter = '%b'
gp.title = 'FX spot moves by day of month'
gp.scale_factor = 3
gp.file_output = "output_data/FX spot DOM seasonality.png"
pf.plot_line_graph(day_of_month_seasonality, adapter='pythalesians', gp=gp)
###### calculate seasonal moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD (using Quandl data)
if True:
time_series_request = TimeSeriesRequest(
start_date = "01 Jan 1970", # start date
finish_date = datetime.date.today(), # finish date
freq = 'daily', # daily data
data_source = 'quandl', # use Quandl as data source
tickers = ['EURUSD', # ticker (Thalesians)
'GBPUSD'],
fields = ['close'], # which fields to download
vendor_tickers = ['FRED/DEXUSEU', 'FRED/DEXUSUK'], # ticker (Quandl)
vendor_fields = ['close'], # which Bloomberg fields to download
cache_algo = 'internet_load_return') # how to return data
ltsf = LightTimeSeriesFactory()
df = ltsf.harvest_time_series(time_series_request)
df_ret = tsc.calculate_returns(df)
day_of_month_seasonality = seasonality.bus_day_of_month_seasonality(df_ret, partition_by_month = False)
day_of_month_seasonality = tsc.convert_month_day_to_date_time(day_of_month_seasonality)
gp = GraphProperties()
gp.date_formatter = '%b'
gp.title = 'FX spot moves by time of year'
gp.scale_factor = 3
gp.file_output = "output_data/20150724 FX spot seas.png"
pf.plot_line_graph(day_of_month_seasonality, adapter='pythalesians', gp = gp)
def calculate_ret_stats_from_prices(self, returns_df, ann_factor):
tsc = TimeSeriesCalcs()
self.calculate_ret_stats(tsc.calculate_returns(returns_df), ann_factor)
